Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The newest Prospectus Cover Boy is the best power hitting prospect in the game today.

Most of us have seen Josh in action. Craig Burley and I attended a Yankees-Blue Jays tilt last year in which Roger Clemens started for the visitors. Phelps blasted two monstrous homeruns in that game, and after one of them I turned to Craig and mentioned the name that surely was on the mind of many Jays fans at that moment – Mark McGwire.

Is Josh Phelps going to be the new Mac? It would be wildly premature to speculate on that to be sure, but when did that ever stop any of us before? Phelps is the young hitter most likely to put up Mac-like power numbers.


After some tinkering some months ago, I settled on an estimate for power which was simple to understand and could be calculated for any hitter using only the basic offensive stats. There are actually two versions:

MANIFESTED POWER = (2B+3B+2*HR) / (AB-K+SF)

The other version drops the SF from the denominator. The formula estimates how hard a batter puts a ball in play on average. Outs in play and singles are counted as zero on the power scale, doubles and triples are a 1, and homeruns are a 2. While it is true that you can hit a ball hard and single or make an out, it is not possible to weed out the soft ones based on official stats. There are line drive singles (and outs for that matter), but many singles are of the infield hit variety or else sneak through the infield. Aside from the bloop doubles and triples and a rare inside-the-parker, extra base hits are hard hit balls. Triples are no harder hit than doubles: they are merely “speed” doubles.

In any case that’s the logic behind the formula. Let’s see what it tells us about 2002.

TOP 15 by Manifested Power (200+PA, non-Park Adjusted), 2002
                       MP        PA          Age(July1)
Jim Thome 0.360 613 31.85
Barry Bonds 0.349 612 37.94
Sammy Sosa 0.286 666 33.64
Alex Rodriguez 0.283 725 26.93
Erubiel Durazo 0.279 276 28.44
Josh Phelps 0.279 287 24.14
Brian Giles 0.276 644 31.45
Manny Ramirez 0.276 518 30.09
Mark Bellhorn 0.272 529 27.86
Russ Branyan 0.268 435 26.53
Carlos Delgado 0.264 628 30.02
Jared Sandberg 0.262 401 24.33
Pat Burrell 0.262 684 25.73
Rafael Palmeiro 0.261 663 37.77
Lance Berkman 0.261 692 26.39


The Giambi boys were 16th and 17th (Little G actually finishing ahead). Park adjusted numbers would show Barry moving ahead of Thome. Josh leads the youngsters, with Jared Sandberg and Pat Burrell next. Other young power hitters (under 26.0) include: Andruw Jones (.241 – 21st), Alfonso Soriano (.240, 23rd), Adam Dunn (.223, 30th), Eric Chavez (.218, 37th), Brad Wilkerson (.214, 40th) and Carlos Beltran (.214, 41st).

Let’s see how Josh stacked up against his AAA cohorts in his monster half-season in upstate New York.

Top 15 Manifested Power, AAA (under 26, 150+ PA), 2002

                     Org        MP        PA         Age(July1)
Phelps, Josh TOR 0.394 295 24.14
Cust, Jack COL 0.290 450 23.46
Petrick, Ben COL 0.281 311 25.23
Stratton, Rob NYM 0.274 282 24.73
Ludwick, Ryan TEX 0.263 352 24.30
Restovich, Michael MIN 0.261 580 23.49
Rivera, Mike DET 0.256 305 25.81
Cuddyer, Michael MIN 0.256 372 23.26
Borchard, Joe CWS 0.256 493 23.60
Ryan, Mike MIN 0.248 600 24.99
Pena, Carlos OAK 0.240 206 24.12
Cash, Kevin TOR 0.230 266 24.57
Chen, Chin-Feng LA 0.229 576 24.68
Ross, Dave LA 0.227 346 25.28
Munson, Eric DET 0.221 569 24.74


No contest! It was an awesome display – Josh demonstrated that he was far too good for AAA pitching.

Phelps put up a .272 MP at AA Tennessee in 2001, a combined .295 MP in AA/A+(Dunedin) in 2000, and a .232 MP at Dunedin in 1999 (age 21.14). That suggests a fairly normal progression, as most hitters increase their power significantly between age 21 and age 24.

What’s in the cards for Phelps in 2003? To progress as a hitter, he’s got to work on his strikeout to walk ratio. Josh was one of the big whiffers in MLB in 2002:

Top 10 by Strikeouts per PA (minus intentional walks), 200+PA, 2002

                  Walk rate   Strikeout rate   PA     Age(July1)
Russ Branyan 0.112 0.350 435 26.53
Jared Sandberg 0.091 0.349 401 24.33
Jose Hernandez 0.082 0.326 582 32.96
Chad Hermansen 0.085 0.309 265 24.81
Jason LaRue 0.056 0.299 397 28.28
Felipe Lopez 0.072 0.292 309 22.14
George Lombard 0.073 0.290 270 26.80
Brandon Inge 0.069 0.288 351 25.12
Josh Phelps 0.067 0.286 287 24.14
Greg Vaughn 0.137 0.277 297 36.99


Josh put up similar rates in AAA (.092 walk rate; .287 strikeout rate) in 2002. I don’t expect him to cut his strikeout rate dramatically – but hopefully he’ll fall to somewhere between 15 and 20 on this list for the upcoming year. His walk rate is low. I expect it to rise a little, mostly because he’s going to get pitched around a bit more than last year (especially if he bats 6th). I’ll wager that his K/W ratio ends up in the neighbourhood of 3.5 to 1.

Expect Josh’s batting average to drop off significantly. His BIP average (batting average when the ball stays in the yard) was .399 last year (.340 in AAA). That was 2nd in the majors, bested only by the .406 BIP posted by the enigma that is Jose Hernandez. Phelps swings hard and hits line drives, so he should continue to post high BIP averages for years to come, but nobody maintains a .400 BIP average.

Overall, expect the drop in BAVG to offset the rise in walks and then some, causing the OBP to slide into the .340-.350 range. I think his slugging percentage will fall in proportion to his batting average. That would be a fine 2003, in which Josh consolidates the gains he made in 2002.

If Josh Phelps works diligently on his strike-zone judgement and pitch recognition, I expect that one day I will be able to call him the best hitter in baseball and not be ridiculed.

Get your tickets for Blue Jays V ’03, folks – it’s gonna be a great show.
Phelps’ Power is Off the Charts | 27 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Coach - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 11:31 AM EST (#46676) #
Robert, this is great work. I will try to fix the formatting; tables don't always translate well and I have better luck with the [PRE] tag, so bear with me.

I don't think Josh has any problem knowing the strike zone; it's pitch recognition where he has room to improve, in particular laying off the slow stuff that drops out of the zone. Last year he swung through a lot of changeups and splitters.
_R Billie - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 11:41 AM EST (#46677) #
I've already got my TO Star Season's Pass. Best deal in town. :)
Dave Till - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 11:55 AM EST (#46678) #
I would say that Phelps's low walk total isn't entirely his fault. You can't draw a walk until the pitcher throws four balls outside the strike zone. There are still a lot of pitchers who think "rookie" when they see Phelps, and try to throw the fastball by him or attempt to break off an "unhittable" curve ball. Eventually, they will learn not to do that, and his walk total will rise.

I think that Josh Phelps bears an eerie resemblance to Carlos Delgado - the only differences between the two are skin colour and which way they bat at the plate. Both men are 6'3". Both weigh about the same - Carlos is listed at 220, and Phelps at 215, but that's just an age-related difference. Both men have world-class power, and both were catchers until just before they reached the major leagues. Both are smarter than the average baseball player.

Given this, I'd guess that Phelps's career path will closely mirror Delgado's. Unfortunately, this may mean a speed bump or two in the short term - somebody, somewhere, is going to find a hole or two in young Josh's game, and he will have to learn to adjust. (Delgado, as you all know, started off his career mashing fastballs, and then slumped once pitchers started throwing those funny bending pitches.) Phelps has an advantage over Delgado, as he has a spot waiting for him; Delgado had to spend an extra year or two in Syracuse, as the only positions he could play were blocked by Molitor and Olerud.

If Phelps doesn't slump, the Jays' offense will be difficult to stop. It's a simple formula: three guys who reach base (Stewart, Cat, Hinske), followed by two guys who whamp the heck out of the ball.
_Jurgen Maas - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 12:45 PM EST (#46679) #
I was at that Clemens game with my friend and girlfriend, and we were only a couple of rows away from where Phelps' Ramirez-like blast landed in the upper deck. (Sometimes the cheap seats do pay off!)

I've never seen anything like it. (It was certainly the furthest 450 feet I've ever seen.)

Phelps actually reminds me of a right-handed Shawn Green. Maybe it's just his Semitic good looks.
Mike D - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 12:49 PM EST (#46680) #
Wow, George Lombard has a higher strikeout rate than Josh Phelps. That's truly crap-tastic.
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 12:55 PM EST (#46681) #
Coach: I don't think Josh has any problem knowing the strike zone... Last year he swung through a lot of changeups and splitters.

Dave Till: I would say that Phelps's low walk total isn't entirely his fault. You can't draw a walk until the pitcher throws four balls outside the strike zone.

Every party loves a cynic, right? Here I am.

Actually, I am enthusiastic about what lies ahead for Phelps. But I guess I'm a little leery of picking out a spot for his plaque in Cooperstown just yet, given his K and BB rates.

Through age 24, Phelps has logged 278 MLB AB, striking out 1/3 of the time. His AB:BB ratio was about 13:1.

By way of comparison, by age 24, McGwire had logged 1100 AB, striking out about 20% of the time with an AB:BB ratio of about 7.5:1.

By age 24, Delgado had logged 700 AB, striking out 30% of the time with an AB:BB ratio of about 8:1.

BTW, I refuse to compare Phelps to Sosa since the rate by which Sosa developed his batting eye is, I believe, entirely unprecedented.

Clearly, rookies or not, McGwire and Delgado were able to draw walks at an-above average league clip while striking out less than Phelps did in 2002. I think's it premature to compare Phelps to these two given the current, seeming disparity in their strike zone judgements.

Respectfully disagreeing with Dave, I think everyone sees pitches out of the strike zone (remember Lance Blankenship?) and I don't think that Phelps, as a rookie, was any exception. I will speculate that one reason he went out of the strike zone more than he did as a minor leaguer (where his walk rates were good) was partly due to the success he was having swinging the bat.

I neither agree nor disagree with Coach's assessment about Phelps' strike zone judgement, but I am more than willing to defer to someone with that monicker, especially when Phelps did walk in the minors.

So, colour me optimistic, if not quite holding the belief that we are seeing the second coming of McGwire, or even Delgado.

But I'd be very happy to be proven wrong.
Coach - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 01:04 PM EST (#46682) #
OK, the tables are lined up and I've had time to really digest this. I presume that the AAA numbers are not park-adjusted, so with two high-altitude guys second and third on that list, Phelps actually had an even wider margin as the best masher in the minors.

When he first got called up, it was natural to expect some period of adjustment. Josh got away from his game plan the first couple of weeks; he was so anxious to stick, that he was ripping singles (hard ones) up the middle and doubles (rockets) down the line on balls he could have launched. My legion of ESPN critics started to ask, "where's all this power you guaranteed?" even though he was batting .367 with an 8-game hit streak.

In August, finally sure he belonged, Josh let it rip to the tune of 7 HR and 30 RBI, and he was even better in September, with a 1.108 OPS. As amazing as his projections are if you look at his entire half-season, I contend that we only saw the real Phelps those last two months, and Robert's comparison to McGwire is appropriate.

As to intelligence, in a recent conversation with some sharp observers, it was noted that Josh can be fooled the first time up, then battles in his next AB and dominates the pitcher thereafter. The ability to make those adjustments is what separates free-swingers from the elite sluggers, and Phelps has it. He's not just a fastball hitter; if they hang a curve, he can put it into a hotel room, and he'll eventually learn to stay back on the change. I agree that his AVG and OBP will most likely decline, but I expect him to launch 40+ mistakes into orbit every year for a long time to come.
_EddieZosky - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 01:04 PM EST (#46683) #
Fantastic post.

I remember reading an interview with our boy Josh this offseason in which he mentioned that he was a star math student (Geek) in high school, and also that his favourite math teacher was a former pro player.

In the article he states that he's learned to approach hitting as a science rather than an art. He sees the math in the pitch sequences and makes educated calculations at the plate. He thinks about odds when waiting on pitches. Instead of seeing a fastball, he sees a mass of glowing green binary digits floating through the air in slow motion towards him...ok, he didn't really say that, but wouldn't that be cool?

Needless to say, this bodes extremely well for us. Baseball, with its stats and odds and math go hand in hand. Ask Dan Shulman an actuarial science grad from UWO. Or Pete Rose.
_Mick - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 01:12 PM EST (#46684) #
Ignoring the stats for a moment, and admittedly I've only seen Phelps on TV, the guy he reminded me of (build, swing, demeanor) was ...

Gorman Thomas.

Now, that might sound like ice water on the parade, to mix metaphors, but GT was a guy who led the AL in homers twice, helped take his team to a World Series they should have won, and hit 260-some homers in an era when Mike Schmidt was leading the major in the mid-30-range.

Sure, Gormy had a lousy career BA, but we know better, right? His career OPS (wrote the lazy correspondent without bothering to look it up) must've been around .800. As disappointed as the Phelps-for-Hall committee might be with that, I think Ricciardi & Co. would take 10 years of Gorman Thomas era-adjusted numbers right now without blinking.

And maybe Phelps ends up being, I don't know, Willie Stargell, but he could also be Bob Robertson. (Why did two Pirates come to mind there? Maybe it's the Raiders-Bucs Super Bowl influence.) And Gorman Thomas would be a nice middle ground.
Gitz - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 01:35 PM EST (#46685) #
I would caution not to get too excited about the September stats, when AAA stiffs are joining tired/lazy/bored veterans in hurling beefy fastball and hanging sliders. Most likely Phelps will be a beast (though not likely until 2004), but the comparison to McGwire isn't valid for any number of reasons, most of which have been outlined above.

However, I'd take Phelps or Gorman Thomas or Mick Doherty or just about anyone other than T-Long, my other favorite whipping boy (along with Junior Giambi naturally).
Coach - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 01:37 PM EST (#46686) #
Chuck, you're not being cynical, just realistic. Of course it's within the realm of possibility that Phelps won't improve, and pitchers will figure him out. But the reason I'm so high on him is that he doesn't chase pitches (a la Mondesi and Cruz) as much as he misreads their velocity.

He puts that HR swing -- not as compact as McGwire's, or Bonds', in fact the Green comparison is pretty close -- on everything he thinks is a strike. But he's not a "guess" hitter. It's just that he reacts to a fastball sometimes on off-speed and/or breaking pitches. Given his work ethic and IQ, I expect him to get better at recognizing the junk, and laying off or checking his swing. If he does, some gigantic numbers are possible.

I don't have a "hit chart" for location of balls in play, but if someone does, it will show that Phelps rarely used right field last year. That's another aspect of his development that encourages me; with maturity and experience, he won't try to pull everything. As strong as he is, if he goes with pitches on the outside edge, intending doubles into the gap, he'll accidentally knock a lot of them out of the park. He might also learn that even when he is fooled, he can still inside-out a single the opposite way.
_Nigel - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 02:03 PM EST (#46687) #
I've "lurked" here for a while, and I must say its fun to see such interesting baseball and Blue Jay analysis. Living in Vancouver makes you think sometimes that no one is interested in baseball. Anyway, while the comment about Phelps not using right field much is generally true, what really made me take notice of his power potential were the two bombs he hit in Fenway into and over the bullpen off fastballs (if you can call them that from Burkett) on the outside corner.
_Shrike - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 02:25 PM EST (#46688) #
Nigel, there are at least two other people living in Vancouver interested in baseball that also frequent this site: myself, and Justin.

Alas, the sun is shining brightly today and I'm reminded that noon games at Nat Bailey are a thing of the past. At least I have memories of watching Troy Percival bring serious heat, and the major-league calibre hitting of Anderson/Erstad/Edmonds. The Vancouver Canadians had a ridiculous run of top-notch prospects coming through in the early 90s, which is probably why I think Bavasi got a raw deal when he was ousted as GM of the Angels.
_Shrike - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 02:26 PM EST (#46689) #
Nigel, there are at least two other people living in Vancouver interested in baseball that also frequent this site: myself, and Justin.

Alas, the sun is shining brightly today and I'm reminded that noon games at Nat Bailey are a thing of the past. At least I have memories of watching Troy Percival bring serious heat, and the major-league calibre hitting of Anderson/Erstad/Edmonds. The Vancouver Canadians had a ridiculous run of top-notch prospects coming through in the early 90s, which is probably why I think Bavasi got a raw deal when he was ousted as GM of the Angels.
_Shrike - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 02:28 PM EST (#46690) #
Great, my first double-post as my browser locked up. -(
_R Billie - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 02:43 PM EST (#46691) #
I like Phelps, but if I had to compare him to a major leaguer, I'd probably say Richie Sexson (2001 version) rather than McGwire or Delgado. And though the latter two did accomplish more than Phelps through age 24 and 1100 at bats, it was Phelps' first exposure to the majors...in two years he could be a different player.

He should improve on his BB/K ratio a bit at the expense of average and succeed in scaring pitchers a lot with his massive strength and plate coverage.

His first several games I was waiting for him to let lose with the power which was obviously there and it finally started coming with some of the hardest hit homeruns I've seen from a Jays this side of Delgado. Though his peripherals might be disputable, you can pretty much pencil in 35 or 40+ homeruns with gobs of RBI hitting behind Stewart, Cat, Hinske, and Delgado.
_Nigel - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 02:47 PM EST (#46692) #
Yes, after being raised on the metallic benches in the bleachers at Exhibition Stadium, Nat Bailey Stadium was a bit of a shock to the system (as was seeing Barry Zito's curve from right behind the catcher). It's good to know that all West Coast fan interest in MLB didn't die with the Edgar Martinez slide into second under the BC Place roof. How crazy (amateur) was that? All of which is completely off topic and for my first posts no less!
_Jurgen Maas - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 02:50 PM EST (#46693) #
Ah, Shawn Green.

I still can't believe that in the "we can't keep them both" Ash years, they kept Delgado. And that we got Raul Mondesi straight up in return. Watching Green continue to put up monster numbers in pitcher's paradise without Sheffield's protection AND play great RF brings a tear to my eye.

Anyone who brings to mind Green is a happy addition.

Chuck's bringing some interesting numbers to the table with these AB:BB ratios and K %. I've got to preorder my copy of BP 2003 to keep up.

Did anyone listen to MLB radio yesterday? After blanking on the Jays CF now that Cruz is gone, they suggested Phelps would be playing RF in '03, ignoring the Cat. (They also said Sturtz, not Rupe, is the former D-Ray with the Bosox.)

I want to play against those guys in my fantasy league.
Craig B - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 03:24 PM EST (#46694) #
Sexson is an interesting comparison to Phelps. Since Sexson was born at the end of a year, and Phelps in the middle, I figured I'd take Sexson's age-23 and age-24 seasons together as a good match for Phelps' age-24 year. It's about a month off of a perfect age match.

Not having access to SF data, I recalculated Phelps's MP stat from Robert's above... to .397 in AAA and .279 in MLB.

Sexson's comaprable stats are .228 in AAA and .249 in MLB.

Purely in power terms, Phelps is ahead of where Sexson was. Overall he may be behind because Sexson had better command of the strike zone.


AAA K/W AAA K/AB MLB K/W MLB K/AB
Phelps 2.6 .323 4.3 .309
Sexson 1.2 .198 4.0 .243
_Chuck Van Den C - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 07:56 PM EST (#46695) #
Robert Dudek: If Josh Phelps works diligently on his strike-zone judgement and pitch recognition, I expect that one day I will be able to call him the best hitter in baseball and not be ridiculed.

I am truly enjoying the civilized and intelligent level of discourse on this blog. It's a nice oasis from usenet and BP.

I hope I don't develop a rep as a cynic, but I've got another minor pin to prick into the balloon that is this Josh Phelps love-in. With the caveat that I hope to be wrong and that Phelps parlays his dazzling intellect into a HoF career and answers to the grand unification theory and cold fusion, I'd like to seriously address Robert's comment shown above.

Has anyone who was ever considered the best hitter in a given season been a player who started his MLB career as late as age 24? I ask this in all seriousness.

Just a sampling of some of the game's recent hitters who have been considered the very best in a given season (for right or for wrong) and their age in their rookie season: Bonds 21, McGwire 23, Thomas 22, Canseco 21, Sosa 20, Griffey 19, ARod 19.

Oops. Found one. Jason Giambi was a rookie at 24 and a regular at 25. Actually, kinda found another one. Our very own Delgado was a rookie at 22 and then dicked around mercilessly so that he wasn't a full timer until age 24.

Other noted late starters, Piazza 24, Boggs 24, and Edgar Martinez 27, were all excellent hitters at their peak, though probably never the absolute best in the game.

Sticking with the Giambi comp given the age 24 start, note that he experienced no set backs from age 25 to 30, improving his OPS in each of the next six seasons after his debut, the latter two of which saw his BB exceed his K. (I defy anyone to find another player who showed an improvement for 6 straight years.)

So, I have to concede that Robert's hopes are theoretically possible, especially given that Phelps' age 24 season was so much more impressive than Giambi's, but Phelps' "advanced" age has to be considered when forecasting how good he could become. He's only 3-4 years off his likely peak.

If Phelps can continually put up a 900+ OPS, that would suit me just fine. If he turns into the 1000+ OPS masher that several here are predicting, I'll consider that gravy.
robertdudek - Thursday, January 23 2003 @ 09:42 PM EST (#46696) #
Chuck...

It's true that most great hitters reach the majors at an early age, but when they do, very few hit like Phelps did. They usually require a few years to develop their power and strike zone judgement. The Jays chose to let Phelps dominate AA and AAA for a season and a half; in years gone by, they might have put him in the lineup halfway through 2000 and let him struggle for awhile.

I think if it were simply his near 300 PA in the majors in 2002, we'd be right to take a much more cautioius approach. But Phelps' minor league numbers are so impressive, as to suggest that, barring a "swelled head" or injury, Phelps will be a very very good hitter.

I too think that 900+ OPS is to be expected and 1000+ would be gravy. I'll take it.

Actually, McGwire was only a few months younger when he broke in, and after his monster 1987 seemed to regress. Mike Schmidt was also a half year younger (than Phelps) in 1973 and struggled mightily before taking a big step forward the next year.

I think most people thought that Boggs was the best hitter in baseball for a brief period of time in the 80s.
Pistol - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 12:05 PM EST (#46697) #
The splits at ESPN are great. Here’s some more Phelps info:

OPS by month:
July - .732
August - .951
Sept – 1.108

One of my thoughts was that Phelps loaded up on Oriole and Devil Ray pitching in September. However, he did better against the Yankees and Sox combined than the O’s and Rays combined (the 4 teams he faced the most).

Yanks 1.259
Sox .985
O’s .988
Drays .828

Phelps improves the second and third time around facing a pitcher. Is that an indication that he’ll improve the more he sees the league and faces the same pitchers again?

1st AB against a pitcher .828
2nd AB against a pitcher 1.044
3rd AB against a pitcher 1.007
_R Billie - Friday, January 24 2003 @ 12:36 PM EST (#46698) #
I think the trend for improving against a pitcher the second or third time around within the same game is true for most competent hitters. And hitters general improve as they grow accustomed to the level of competition...though as some have pointed out above, Josh was a little bit lucky to have an average as high as he did.
_S Dailey - Sunday, February 01 2004 @ 04:34 AM EST (#46699) #
Edgar Martinez got his start at 27 because the Mariners thought Jim Presley was a better player...20 years later it still makes me mad.
_Rob - Thursday, February 05 2004 @ 11:00 AM EST (#46700) #
Here are the AL top 20 projected MPOW's for 2004(minimum of 400 PA's):
Sorry that the columns do not line up.

LAST FIRST PA MPOW
RODRIGUEZ ALEX 709 0.319
DELGADO CARLOS 679 0.285
RAMIREZ MANNY 673 0.279
PHELPS JOSH 518 0.266
LOPEZ JAVY 472 0.264
GIAMBI JASON 684 0.252
GLAUS TROY 549 0.251
ORTIZ DAVID 508 0.251
CHAVEZ ERIC 642 0.241
TEIXEIRA MARK 586 0.240
GUERRERO VLADIMIR 605 0.232
GONZALEZ JUAN 544 0.228
SORIANO ALFONSO 738 0.227
PENA CARLOS 586 0.225
FULLMER BRAD 431 0.220
NIXON TROT 549 0.220
THOMAS FRANK 646 0.219
HINSKE ERIC 566 0.217
NIX LAYNCE 520 0.207
POSADA JORGE 581 0.203
_Rob - Thursday, February 05 2004 @ 11:01 AM EST (#46701) #
Here are the AL top 20 projected MPOW's for 2004(minimum of 400 PA's):
Sorry that the columns do not line up.

LAST FIRST PA MPOW
RODRIGUEZ ALEX 709 0.319
DELGADO CARLOS 679 0.285
RAMIREZ MANNY 673 0.279
PHELPS JOSH 518 0.266
LOPEZ JAVY 472 0.264
GIAMBI JASON 684 0.252
GLAUS TROY 549 0.251
ORTIZ DAVID 508 0.251
CHAVEZ ERIC 642 0.241
TEIXEIRA MARK 586 0.240
GUERRERO VLADIMIR 605 0.232
GONZALEZ JUAN 544 0.228
SORIANO ALFONSO 738 0.227
PENA CARLOS 586 0.225
FULLMER BRAD 431 0.220
NIXON TROT 549 0.220
THOMAS FRANK 646 0.219
HINSKE ERIC 566 0.217
NIX LAYNCE 520 0.207
POSADA JORGE 581 0.203
_Smack - Monday, August 02 2004 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#46702) #
I read this a while back, great article.

If anyone has the time, something on Phelps huge splits and his development would be much appreciated. Is he destined to be a lefty crushing DH? Or can he adjust to what righties are exploiting and redeem his status as a young power bat.
Phelps’ Power is Off the Charts | 27 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.