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Breaking News Estrada Gets Qualifying Offer
The Blue Jays are willing to hand over $15.8 million to Marco Estrada for 2016 by giving him a qualifying offer.


Marco Estrada posted a record of 13-8 with a 3.13 earned run average in 2015 for Toronto. He also went 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA in the playoffs. (Image from Toronto Sun).


The ball is now in the 32 year-old righthander's court. He has until November 13 to decide if he will take it. Sportsnet has a breakdown of the pros and cons of the QO for Estrada.

What say you on the qualifying offer, Bauxites?
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Friday, November 06 2015 @ 12:42 PM EST.
Estrada Gets Qualifying Offer | 334 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
BlueJayWay - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 01:09 PM EST (#314814) #
Pretty much a no-brainer to offer it. Estrada will reject it because he can get more total money on a free agent deal.
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uglyone - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 01:34 PM EST (#314816) #
this might be the most interesting QO ever.

he has to be tempted to take it - i mean he's likely not gonna be offered any more than $10m per year on a 2-3yr deal. $16m for one year, especially if he's confident kn being good again, has to be a real conideration.
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Sano - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 01:37 PM EST (#314817) #
I have to think that he rejects it. He is never going to be as marketable as he is right now. Then again, I really do want him to stay. So here's hoping he's swayed by the $$$.
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jerjapan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 01:45 PM EST (#314818) #
I said this in the other thread, but I could see Estrada being the first guy to accept.  My guess is that he resigns - a winning team / positive environment, a team that helped him realize his potential, and the albatross of the QO hanging around his neck ... fringe guys that have rejected the QO have really suffered from their decision.  
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ComebyDeanChance - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 01:46 PM EST (#314819) #
This is part of an effort to negotiate a longer term deal with Estrada. Had they not done so, it would have been made more difficult.
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Cracka - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 01:52 PM EST (#314820) #
In every conversation about QOs it's important to remember one thing: Under the current system, no player has ever accepted one. There is no doubt in my mind that there's pressure from the MLBPA for players to decline any QOs. Estrada agent is TWC Sports - they also represent Tulo, Markakis, Longoria, and a few other fringe players.

It would be shocking if Estrada was the first person to accept a QO. There will be too much pressure and too much potential upside (should get a 3-4 year deal) in favor of declining it.

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Mike Green - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 01:53 PM EST (#314821) #
I don't have enough information about the team payroll limit for 2016 to give a firm opinion about the Estrada QO.  It's especially tricky because of the catching implications, but I do feel a lot better about Martin catching Estrada than Martin catching Dickey.
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jerjapan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:00 PM EST (#314822) #
I've been trying to listen to the different Shapiro interviews to get a sense of him, and I know that reading between the lines has limited value, but one line I found interesting from the day 1 Shapiro interview with McCown was his comment about 'the guys we will lose will leave holes' in the rotation- with Estrada back and Buehrle arguably not much of a hole this sounds like he doesn't believe we will bring back Price .  At this point, are there any Bauxites who hope we can get him back?

It also sounds clear that  Shapiro wants to win next year because of the competitive cycle (which sounds like a FA shorter term veteran starter or two to me) he simply wont answer questions about budget ("it's fluid"), that behind the scenes stuff is a focus (Dunedin, modernizing the org) and that natural grass might take a back seat for a while.

Do people see us signing relievers?  We could fix the back end of the pen and role the dice with Hutch, Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation. 

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Jevant - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:07 PM EST (#314823) #
To be honest, I'm kinda okay with not signing Price, especially if we are talking the Scherzer deal. With the current lack of depth, I'd almost prefer signing two SP for the "price of Price", and reassessing at the deadline. I'd probably prefer to keep the offence together, sign multiple mid-level guys (Estrada for one year could be one of them), and then figure out the back end of the rotation and the BP with what you have (and probably trading one of Revere, Saunders or Pompey (hopefully one of the first two)).

I'd also give strong consideration to bringing back Lowe, although I don't think Gibbons trusts him as much as he should. Lowe and an additional LH reliever would mean that unless you poach both Sanchez and Osuna for the rotation, you still have one of them, Lowe, Cecil, LHRP, and Hendriks, which is a pretty excellent top 5.
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ComebyDeanChance - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:17 PM EST (#314824) #
There is no doubt in my mind that there's pressure from the MLBPA for players to decline any QOs.

There's doubt in mine. I suspect that the pressure to reject the QO doesn't come from the MLBPA, which negotiated it, as much as from player agents who have difficulty with contracts reached with no value added on their part at all. The MLBPA on the other hand, may just as easily be pointing out to players that the decision to reject a QO has ranged in some cases from poor to ridiculous.
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Gerry - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:28 PM EST (#314825) #
If Estrada could get a three year deal at $10M per year that is $30M guaranteed. He could make more through accepting the QO and taking his chances at 2017 and 2018 but most players take the guaranteed money. Their agents want them to take the guaranteed money too so they get paid (before they potentially get fired).

I think he declines.
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jerjapan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:37 PM EST (#314826) #
Jevant, I'm thinking Price will absolutely get the Scherzer deal - they are pretty comparable talents.  And I can't see anyone having as good a first season in a mega-contract as Scherzer just did - so if you don't like that deal, you don't want Price back.  who are some of the two for the price of price guys you might like? 

I don't see ANY good trade prospects on our big league roster at the moment - possibly Revere (who I actually think is a bit undervalued by some folks) but the Phillies basically gave him to us, which says a lot about his value vs. his contract.  I could see Saunders doing a contract something like Smoak did, but even if he came back for the 3 million or so he just made, that's fine, he remains an asset. 

Estrada is going to make more than 3 years at $10 million per, but i could see 3 at 13 getting it done, and I'd be fine with that. 

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Jonny German - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:37 PM EST (#314827) #
Thumbs up for giving Estrada the QO. It was an obvious thing to do, but it would have been very scary if Rogers/Shapiro was so budget-cautious as to not do it. He will turn it down, of course.

Ian Kennedy on the other hand. Wow. Will some team really give him a 3-year deal that makes him glad to have turned down 1 year at $15.8M?
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jensan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:39 PM EST (#314828) #
Sign Estrada to a 3/33 and Navarro for 2/6, and trade Dickey, Thole and Revere for Shields plus Cashner plus a few million dollars from Padres. San Diego is begging to get rid of Shields.

Stroman, Shields, Estrada, Cashner and Hutchison -$40 Million SP
Add to your bullpen Loup, Cecil, Osuna, Sanchez, Hendriks, add two for a total of $14 Million
Position Players total $83 Million. There is your 137 Million well spent.
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SK in NJ - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:59 PM EST (#314830) #
As I said in the other topic, it's a no lose situation. If he declines, then the Jays get a pick. If he accepts, then the Jays get a MLB starter for one more year (1/16 is better than 3/33 for someone with Estrada's projections).

With that said, he's going to decline. I'm fairly confident in that. No one has ever accepted a qualifying offer and there's a reason for that.

I'm disappointed that a lot of decent 2nd tier pitching options were qualified. I'm not sure how the market is going to look now with some many of these types of pitchers being qualified (Estrada, Kuma, Samardzija, Kennedy, etc). Good value can be had for the Jays but it's going to cost more than just money now. At least Estrada helps them get a pick back.
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Mike Green - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 02:59 PM EST (#314831) #
John Lott on twitter suggests that the MLBPA does wish players to decline QOs.  I don't quite get it.  One of the original reasons that Marvin Miller liked the arb/FA process was the creation of a limited market drove up free agent contracts which then set the tone for arb awards.  On this theory, I don't know why the union would prefer that there be (let's say) 15 bona fide starters on the market as opposed to 13.  Wouldn't that tend to drive down salaries for the FA starters?  I must be thick.
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China fan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:22 PM EST (#314832) #
Shi Davidi is interpreting the Estrada QO as an optimistic sign on potential payroll size:  "Given that their rotation to this point only includes Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey for certain, the offer hints at them having enough money to work to fill other holes should Estrada return."
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Cracka - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:29 PM EST (#314833) #
My guess - based on my interest in labour negotiations -- is that this is part of the MLBPA negotiation strategy to eliminate or drastically change the QO process, which I think can be reviewed after 2016. It's a stronger argument to fix/eliminate the QO system if no player has ever accepted one... so there's likely some pressure for players not to "crack" at this juncture.

The MLBPA's biggest concern is that the current system penalizes those who receive a QO by burdening them with draft compensation and in a few key case (Drew, Morales), costing players service time before they became attractive enough to sign. And obviously, agents would also like to see the system changed...
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China fan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:31 PM EST (#314834) #
"....At least Estrada helps them get a pick back...."

You're quite confident in the powers of your crystal ball.  You don't even see a remote possibility that the Jays will negotiate a multi-year deal with Estrada?

As far as I'm concerned, it's definitely a possibility.  If the Jays are willing to risk $16-million for a single season of Estrada, why not add another $14 or $15 million to get two additional seasons of the same guy (i.e., about $7-million per season)? Even if he's in decline by then, it would still be market value or better.   If they're fairly confident that he is worth $16-million in 2016, why wouldn't he be worth $7-million in 2017 and the same in 2018?  Or even a slightly higher per-season average in those two seasons? There's at least a chance that the Jays are reaching that kind of conclusion in their planning.  Of course they could still get out-bid for him on the open market, but the bidder would have to lose a draft pick, which makes it less likely that the Jays will be out-bid for him if they decide he's worth a per-season average of $7-million or even $8 or $9 million in 2017-18.
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China fan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:35 PM EST (#314835) #
"....We could fix the back end of the pen and role the dice with Hutch, Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation...."

I don't think all 3 of those guys will be in the 2016 rotation, but yes, some variation of this strategy could make sense.  Acquire a couple of good set-up guys (with closer potential) and then try both Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation.  (If they both stick in the rotation, Cecil could be tried as the closer again.)  Chances are that only one of those two will be able to stick in the rotation, but it's worth trying both of them, in March and/or April, to see who sticks. 
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James W - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:42 PM EST (#314836) #
One correction: (Aside from another's comment stating that he could sign here even after declining.) They don't automatically get a pick if he declines. He must sign elsewhere, before the 2016 Rule 4 draft.
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mathesond - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:45 PM EST (#314837) #
I know in previous years if a player declined a QO, and then didn't sign with someone until after the draft, then the team offering the QO no longer gets the pick (e.g. Stephen Drew). Is this still the case?
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Mylegacy - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:55 PM EST (#314838) #
I think I once knew the answer to this question (but at present - for the life of me - it's evaporated into the haze between my ears - I wonder how that happened...)...

Say if in mid-December Marco has not signed elsewhere: are we allowed to sign him to - say - a three year 16 - 14 - 13 contract? Or when he refuses our QO are we frozen out of resigning him for some set period???

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Mike Green - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:56 PM EST (#314839) #
Jonny, I am interested in the interaction of two of your comments. You indicated (I believe) a preference for David Price over two lesser free agents and you have indicated that the QO for Estrada is a no-brainer.  Isn't it reasonably likely that if Estrada, by chance, accepts the QO, there may not be the budget for Price?
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John Northey - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:58 PM EST (#314840) #
One thing of note - I remember the old Bill James rule of 'does this make sense a year ago' before agreeing to trades/free agent deals. For Estrada a year ago this would've been insane, heck, 5 months ago it would've been crazy. It makes sense to offer since odds are someone will give him a stupid offer (3-5 years over $10 per) due to a fear of being short pitching and this gives the Jays a draft pick in exchange.

Now the big question is who do the Jays chase in free agency, if anyone? Do they give Buehrle a QO as well given he is probably retiring and seemed gassed at the end of the season.

Colby Rasmus also got a QO of $15.8 million. Huh, who'd have thunk it after a 238/314/475 season but that was 2.6 fWAR which is worth about that much I guess.
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SK in NJ - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 03:59 PM EST (#314841) #
"You're quite confident in the powers of your crystal ball. You don't even see a remote possibility that the Jays will negotiate a multi-year deal with Estrada?"


Shapiro is a big believer in sabermetrics. He doesn't seem like someone who will get fooled by ERA. I'd be very surprised if Estrada is signed to a multi-year deal under this regime. I could have seen it as a real possibility with AA/Beeston, but not Shapiro, unless it comes at a price so cheap that the reward completely overshadows the risk.

I'd be disappointed if Estrada is signed long-term, to be honest. If he accepts the QO, that's fine, but a 3 year deal for him does not appear to be a smart investment. Put that money towards Iwakuma if possible.
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China fan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:13 PM EST (#314842) #
".....He doesn't seem like someone who will get fooled by ERA...."

As discussed in a host of long analytical articles on many baseball blogs in recent months, Estrada has more than just ERA going for him.  Those two post-season gems -- in high-pressure situations against top-calibre hitters -- were not just flukes.

His critics have been predicting since June that he was going to rapidly decline.  Seems that they were the ones who were fooled.

Of course there's always a risk of regression, but I think he's a pretty good candidate to sustain a lot of his value, if not all of it.

When weighing the value of various free agents, Estrada could be a relative bargain because of several factors:  1) the draft pick will deter some bidders;  2) he likes Toronto and had great success here, and is keen to return;  3) if Navarro returns to the Jays, that's another major factor attracting him back to the Jays;  4) unlike other free agents who see Toronto as "foreign" and "a hitter's park" in a tough division, Estrada is already comfortable in Rogers Stadium and in the AL East, so he won't be as expensive as those free agents whose reluctance will need to be overcome with sheer money.
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jerjapan - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:16 PM EST (#314843) #
I was one of the most vocal opponents of a QO for Estrada, probably right up until the post season when I had a change of heart, so kudos to those Bauxites that got this one right months back!

And to be fair to those who are in favour of bringing him back, there's been plenty of sabremetric stuff at Fangraphs that reveal his change-up is a unique weapon, and that he could continue to minimize line drives and hard hit GBs and somewhat maintain his unusually low BABIP.  In all honesty, signing him at a reasonable rate might be the most sabremetric thing to do, nothing to do with his ERA at all.

Here are the two I'm thinking of if you haven't read them:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-has-maybe-the-changiest-changeup/

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Jonny German - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:23 PM EST (#314844) #
You indicated (I believe) a preference for David Price over two lesser free agents and you have indicated that the QO for Estrada is a no-brainer. Isn't it reasonably likely that if Estrada, by chance, accepts the QO, there may not be the budget for Price?

I did indeed state that preference. But it's a hypothetical - my ideal scenario is not David Price and that's it, I'd like to see them get Price AND a starter of Estrada's calibre. If there isn't budget room for that it's a matter of Rogers not spending what their market supports.

And perhaps I should clarify: When I say a QO for Estrada is a no-brainer it's not because I'm convinced he's good value at 1-year $15.8M, it's because I'm convinced he'll turn it down.

Now, if I'm completely wrong and Estrada does take the QO, and if Rogers is too cheap to also sign Price but does sign another guy comparable to Estrada... I can live with that. What will make for a failed offseason, in my opinion, is heading into spring training with Drew Hutchison penciled into the rotation. He simply has not earned a spot based on what he's done these last 2 years.
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85bluejay - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:23 PM EST (#314845) #
I don't see this regime signing Estrada - I like Iwakuma but I'd be shocked if he doesn't stay in Seattle - I'm thinking Wei-Yin Chen & I like Brett Anderson strong ground ball tendencies in the small AL east parks.
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uglyone - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:28 PM EST (#314846) #
I'll be quite annoyed if we commit $60m or so to Dickey/estrada/kennedy-type/relievers, for multi years no less. that is exactly the kind of poor payroll distribution that condemned AA's early rosters, and forces us to rely on kids to be our star performers instead of just quality depth.

AA finally learned the impprtance of paying only for elite talent, and relying on clever GMing and flexible bottom roster spots for depth. It would be a crying shame if we tool a auick step back to once again locking ourselves into expensive unmovable mediocrities clogging up the bottom of the roster.
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Jonny German - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:30 PM EST (#314847) #
I am with Mike in not wanting to see any more of Russ Martin catching R.A. Dickey. Martin is too valuable of an asset to abuse that way. Josh Thole is part of the cost of R.A.

And as for that cost - besides the roster spot Thole would get about $2M in arbitration. I fully expect the Jays to play hardball and non-tender him, then sign him for ≈$1M. R.A. is his meal ticket, his best chance to avoid spending most of the season in AAA.
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Jonny German - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:36 PM EST (#314848) #
Colby Rasmus got a qualifying offer from the Astros. Good for him. Houston got themselves a nice bargain at 1-year $8M.
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JB21 - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:44 PM EST (#314849) #
His critics have been predicting since June that he was going to rapidly decline. Seems that they were the ones who were fooled.

Statistical noise can last a full season. Chances are his BABIP and strand rates won't be as good as they were in 2015. I'm not saying he will turn into a pumpkin, but I'd say it's a safe bet that they won't maintain that BABIP throughout 2016.

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pubster - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:55 PM EST (#314850) #
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-has-maybe-the-changiest-changeup/
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Mike Green - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 04:58 PM EST (#314851) #
Fangraphs gave out their "Numbers GGs" in the AL yesterday.  Russell Martin got a gold; Donaldson and Pillar got bronzes.   Bautista got an iron which was not surprising given his shoulder problem.
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monkeyman - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 05:04 PM EST (#314852) #
I think the QO to Marco was Shapiro's first move to get an extra pick to address the "long term challenges" of AA's trade deadline moves. I could see us going hard after bullpen arms like Motte, Bastardo and Sipp, that don't have QO's attached, while trading Revere for a back end starter like Niese. This would enable two of Hutch, Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation and leave money for the deadline if we are in it. If Osuna and Sanchez start in the rotation, Hutch and maybe a depth signing like Trevor Cahill could always be used to spell them to manage innings.
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monkeyman - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 05:17 PM EST (#314853) #
Just saw Fister was not QO'd. He would be another depth candidate for sure although the drop in velocity is very concerning.
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scottt - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 05:33 PM EST (#314854) #
Do people see us signing relievers?  We could fix the back end of the pen and role the dice with Hutch, Osuna and Sanchez in the rotation.

The nightmare scenario for Shapiro is to start the year with Dickie and a bunch of guys who will run out of fuel before September. Stroman, Osuna and Sanchez are not ready to throw 200 innings. Hutch threw 180 last year, but only 150 this year. Estrada hit a career high this year with 181.

What happens if you're in contention at the trade deadline? You either offload another boatload of prospects to get another guy like Price or you look like an executive who doesn't care. The Royals felt they needed to get Cueto even though he wasn't that great. And the 2016 Blue Jays will probably need 2 or 3 all-star starters if they don't acquire one during the winter.

The smart move is to sign an all-start starter now and trade him as soon as you can develop young arms.
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scottt - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 05:44 PM EST (#314855) #
Nobody has ever lost money on betting that a player will decline a Qualifying Offer.
Logic has little to do with it.

I assume Estrada will decline. I think the Jays sit back and see if anyone is willing to make an offer.
Shapiro is willing to overpay for one year. That doesn't mean he's willing to overpay for 3.
If Estrada comes back and negotiates with the Jays, I expect that they will balance the extra year(s) with some extra protection like a buyback option. Are there limitations on bonus clauses in the current players agreement?

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scottt - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 05:57 PM EST (#314856) #
Stroman, Dickie, Hutch and Sanchez are a lock for the rotation. What's missing is a 200 inning horse like Price who was down to only 220 innings this year.
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scottt - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 06:17 PM EST (#314857) #
Asdrubal Cabrera also got an iron gloves. He's probably done at shortstop following the recent trade.
Jose Reyes also got one.

It's interesting that Alex Gordon is so good in left field, being a converted thirdbaseman and all.

Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. I have a huge grin on my face when I think about them.

Now, what happened to Brett Lawrie? He was great defensively in Toronto.

Pillar is good, but Kiermaier is like the flash out there.
Anthony Gose is another ex-Jays with an iron gloves and he doesn't even have a good bat.

Alex Rios got a bronze glove and they replace him in late innings. How quaint.

Close your eyes. Now imagine the Jays fielded Gose, Reyes and Lawrie in 2015.

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scottt - Friday, November 06 2015 @ 06:20 PM EST (#314858) #
Josh Thole is part of the cost of R.A.

Thole would get about $2M in arbitration. I fully expect the Jays to play hardball and non-tender him, then sign him for ≈$1M.

Somebody could sign him just to trade him back. Didn't something like that happens in Boston?
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Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 11:05 AM EST (#314861) #
As much as Estrada wants to stay with the Jays, I can't see his Agent letting him accept the Q.O., not if he wants to stay an Agent. More that a few interested parties watched Estrada throw Front-of-the-Rotation Starter stuff in the Postseason. He's getting a 3 to 4 and just faintly possible a 5-year contract worth $17.0 - $20.0 Million per year. That's where I see the offers going. Personally, I cannot see him taking less than $50.0 Million over 3 years.
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PeterG - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 11:13 AM EST (#314862) #
Bob McGown said on PTS last night that a "bird" in Rogers told him that Rogers plans to substantially reduce Jays payroll.

It has also been reported in Jays Journal though it is basically the same info:

http://jaysjournal.com/2015/11/07/blue-jays-rumored-to-be-discussing-2016-payroll-cuts/
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John Northey - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 11:23 AM EST (#314863) #
If the Jays do that they are run by idiots, unless somehow they found a way to lose money in 2015. It is obvious a contender will get fantastic TV ratings and attendance. They know what a 500 team will do, slowly declining attendance and TV ratings. If the payroll drops organically due to players leaving as free agents and new talent stepping up that would be OK (ala 1998 when they dumped a lot of expensive players mid-season and post-season and had a young batch come in, Carpenter/Halladay/Escobar for the rotation, Stewart/Cruz/Green in the OF, Tony Batista SS, Homer Bush 2B, Billy Koch closer all pretty much near the minimum).

If they are purely about clearing out cash then expect Martin, Dickey, Revere, Saunders, Cecil, Thole, Smoak to be traded or non-tendered depeneding on player (Revere on are all 3rd year arbitration). The big sign of a white flag going up would be trading Donaldson.
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Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 01:06 PM EST (#314866) #
Attendance goes up about 500 K in just two months, due to all the excitement with the Jays. Attendance could easily exceed three million in 2016. TV viewership went from 300 K to 5.12 million by game six of ALCS. That should at least increase sponsor costs in 2016. The increased revenue from six playoff games should have been exceptional, possibly massive. The message is simple, spend money, get better, win games, postseason Play, repeat. This should have be the center of a PR blitz, hyping changes, the new Season, getting better and getting back.

This Defense got them into the Postseason. Now they start the Season with it and it costs them nothing.
This Offense got them into the Postseason. Now they start the Season with it and it costs them nothing.

As long as the Bullpen holds Osuna, Sanchez and Cecil, all it needs is another quality LHP and it's an improved Bullpen in 2016. Basic cost should be at most, $10.0 Million.

All that's needed to start the Season with a much improved Rotation is two quality Starters, not named Sanchez and Osuna. Sanchez could be next year's Estrada if needed, but once moved, he stays. A Front-Line Starter is needed. Tried without one for most of last year and sucked. Adding one with Stroman just makes this team better. Basic costs will vary. A top Starter costs anywhere from $22.5 - $33.0 Million to acquire. A Quality #3 Starter costs from $17.5 - $22.5 Million to acquire.

The Jays might not need that much, but to not have that much available after the 2015 is simply ridiculous.
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jerjapan - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 01:35 PM EST (#314867) #
I'm as anti-Rogers as it gets, but I think it's premature to worry about one nameless source during rumour season.  The Beeston / AA fiasco hopefully represents the nadir of Rogers ownership, not the new normal.

To paraphrase some of the comments from local journalists around the AA fiasco - Rogers are bad baseball people, they are bad people people, but they are legit business people and mots definitely not a bunch of idiots.  If there's a tear down, it's after 2016. 

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Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 02:45 PM EST (#314870) #
Having a tear down after 2016 is bizarre.
Second base is set: Devon Travis is under contract until at least 2020. He will be still cheap and should still be playing very well.
Shortstop is set: Trot Tulowitzki is under contract until at least 2020. He will cost $20.0 Million a year and should still be playing very well.
Third Base is set: Josh Donaldson is under contract until at least 2018. He's getting very expensive, but should be exceptional going forward.
Catcher is set: Russell Martin is under contract until at least 2019. He will cost $20.0 Million a year and should still be playing well.
Center Field is set: Kevin Pillar is under contract until at least 2020. He should fairly cheap and should still be exceptional going forward.
Backup Infield is set: Ryan Goins is under contract until at least 2019. He will still be cheap and will be a more than suitable backup at SS and 2B.
Other: Dalton Pompey is under contract until at least 2021. He will be filling an Outfield position by at least then. He will be cheap and playing well.
Bench/Backup 1B is set: Chris Colabello is under contract until at least 2019. He will be fairly cheap and playing effectively.

Pitching has it's assets:
Marcus Stroman is under contract until at least 2019. He should still be fairly cheap and still being exceptional.
Aaron Sanchez is under contract until at least 2019. He should still be fairly cheap and still being exceptional.
Roberto Osuna is under contract until at least 2020. He will still be cheap and very effective.
Also reasonably cheap and effective possibly are: Bo Schultz, Aaron Loup, Liam Hendriks and possibly Drew Hutchison.

After 2016, Free Agents are:
Jose Bautista: $14.0 MM;
Edwin Encarnacion: $10.0 MM;
Ben Revere: $6.7 MM;
Michael Saunders: $2.9 MM;
Justin Smoak: $2.0 MM;
Josh Thole: $1.8 MM;
R.A. Dickey: $12.0 MM;
Brett Cecil: $ 3.4 MM;
That's clears a total of $56.2 Million from the 2016 Budget, making cost from any acquisitions this offseason less threatening financially.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 02:46 PM EST (#314871) #
slashing payroll and blowing this team up this offseason could very well kill the franchise for good.
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jerjapan - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 03:06 PM EST (#314872) #
I agree, no to the tear-down. 

But Richard, IF there is a tear-down (or perhaps a rebuild), post-2016 is the year for it.  four key FAs, all but Cecil well past their primes, a number of minor FAs, the big ticket names aging and approaching the negative value portions of their contracts, and lots of guys arb-eligible.  As you state, the lineup could be incredible, but the depth remains worrisomely thin on the piching side.  A couple of major injuries or developmental failures could make a re-tooling logical after 2016.  And it's not impossible to imagine a major health issue for a Martin / Tulo.

Our next wave of prospects should start arriving in 2017 with tons of guys like Alford, Harris, Reid-Foley emerging by 2018.

so my worst case scenario based on the current org is a re-tool in 2017.  my best scenario is that we are in the playoffs next year and reinvest the savings from our big FAs to fill the holes until 2018 when we should have a wave of young, cheap talent beginning to arrive.

this is all moot if rogers cuts payroll, but like Uglyone said, that'd be nuts and I don't see it happening. 

   
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Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 04:27 PM EST (#314874) #
I can see going after a Stud Starter, like Price this Offseason offering $33.0 Million per year over 7 years. That brings the Salaries to $140.0-ish Millions. Move Sanchez into the Rotation and that makes a very solid Five. I'd keep Osuna in the Bullpen for at least this coming year. I'd re-sign Mark Lowe for one or two years at $2.5 - $3.0 Million per. I'd sign the best Reliever I could, preferably LHP and try not to exceed $150.0 - $151.2 Million total, unless someone really good signs. Subtracting the Free Agents ($56.2 MM) after 2016 leaves a salary going forward of $93.8 - $95.0 Million. Fixing the 2017 Budget at $120.0 leaves a lot of money to fill holes.
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grjas - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 05:47 PM EST (#314875) #
Maybe I'm naive, but I can't believe Rogers would slash payroll. The first question out of Shapiro's mouth in his summer interview would have been "tell me your plans on payroll"... He wouldn't have left Cleveland if he didn't like the answer. And the interview was well before the big playoff run....

Of course if I am wrong about Rogers' payroll plans, it wouldn't be the first time.
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John Northey - Saturday, November 07 2015 @ 09:16 PM EST (#314877) #
This winter is the time to go after an ace and/or solid top 2 starter for the rotation as there is a glut of them available. Who knows what will be on the market next winter but we know who is there now.

Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Samardzija, Hisashi Iwakuma, Ian Kennedy, Marco Estrada, John Lackey, David Price, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, Kenta Maeda (Japanese league so $20 mil posting fee), Scott Kazmir among others are out there costing at most a draft pick plus dollars.

If they want to make the offense so scary that it is insane there are a few OF out there who could fill it up. Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes among others would make the Jays lineup so scary pitchers will do anything to avoid them.
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Mike Green - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 08:08 AM EST (#314878) #
Jim Callis reports from the AFL All-Star game in MLB.Com that Chad Girodo looks like he may be major-league ready in the situational lefty role. CF was right about a couple of surprising things last year- Colabello and Girodo.
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92-93 - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 09:44 AM EST (#314879) #
If PeterG's McCown tidbit is accurate, I can only hope Shapiro is sure Estrada declines the QO for a multi-year deal elsewhere. 16m is a lot to pay for a mid-rotation arm coming off the best season of his career when you have a limited budget and considering that Estrada has never pitched a full season in his career.

Jason Hammel was fresh off a 3.1 WAR season (his 2nd in 3 years) and got a 2/20m deal with a team option on the 3rd year.

Instead of buying high on Marco Estrada (assuming he can't be signed to a team-friendly deal), I would much rather see the team trade 2 years of Revere in arbitration for an arm similar to the pre2015 Estrada, and then go with either Saunders (if healthy) or Colabello in LF. Pompey on the bench could serve as Colabello's defensive caddy, and step in to the everyday role if need be.
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China fan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 10:12 AM EST (#314880) #
"....I would much rather see the team trade 2 years of Revere in arbitration for an arm similar to the pre2015 Estrada..."

A great idea, but the problem is that it's very difficult to spot bargains of the pre-2015-Estrada type.  A year ago, very few people believed that Estrada had the potential to be a top starting pitcher (the number 3 starter on a division-winning team, which is what he was by the end of the season).  He was seen as a bullpen guy and a 6th starter or swing-man.  Very few people thought he was capable of putting up a season similar to what he did in 2015.  The Jays were essentially dumping Adam Lind to save money and to create an opening at DH for Encarnacion, and Estrada was perceived (by most people) as a warm body and a potential long man in the bullpen -- someone to fill a Todd Redmond role.  To give credit to some fans and to Anthopoulos, yes, there was some speculation that Estrada had the potential to become a good starter again, but his relatively low cost (Lind) suggested that he wasn't very highly regarded by most GMs.  So, to find another similar type of breakout candidate for a relatively low cost (Revere) in a trade in the next couple of months will be difficult.  Not impossible, but easier said than done.
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China fan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 10:21 AM EST (#314881) #
"....CF was right about a couple of surprising things last year- Colabello and Girodo...."

Ha, that's very kind of you, Mike, but I cannot claim any kudos for spotting Girodo -- I don't think I've ever posted anything about him before!  (It's true, however, that I was an early and vocal fan of Colabello when he was still in Buffalo last April.)

After his AFL performance, Girodo does seem like a good candidate for the 2016 bullpen.  There are vacancies, so he has a good opportunity to compete for that 6th or 7th slot in the bullpen.  But I'm more concerned about the closer and set-up men -- especially if Rogers restricts the payroll and Shapiro is forced to put both Osuna and Sanchez into the rotation.  Cecil and Hendriks are good pitchers, but they can't handle all the high-leverage innings in 2016.
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John Northey - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 10:24 AM EST (#314882) #
Estrada is a classic situation - guy has best year of his career and a strong playoff, mainly due to a likely unsustainably low H/9 figure, and someone goes out and pays him like a star. He has had 4 years with better FIP's than this year but I doubt anyone thought before late in the season that he'd be worth $15 mil in a season. FanGraphs has his 2012 season as being worth more, just over $20 mil while this past year is at $14.6 due to their using FIP not ERA. 2012 was the only year they had him worth the QO.

FanGraphs has projections up now for all positions for the Jays at http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14 with the following player/WAR/position total WAR. In brackets are any other players getting 100+ PA or 0.1+ WAR at that position.

CA: Martin 3.6/3.8 (Thole/Jimenez)
1B: Smoak 0.6/1.3 (Colobello/Encarnacion/Hague)
2B: Travis 2.8/2.8 (Goins)
3B: Donaldson 5.8/5.9 (Matt Dominguez)
SS: Tulowitski 3.6/3.6 (Goins)
LF: Revere 0.9/1.1 (Saunders/Pompey)
CF: Pillar 2.8/3.0 (Pompey)
RF: Bautista 4.2/4.2
DH: Encarnacion 3.1/3.3 (Colobello)

1B/LF are weak but the rest is strong.

Rotation
Stroman: 3.5 (203 IP)
Dickey: 1.1 (205 IP)
Hutchison: 1.9 (184 IP)
Sanchez: 1.7 (188 IP)
Jenkins: 0.6 (141 IP...are they nuts?)
Osuna: 0.8 (47 IP)

Pen
Osuna: 0.7
Cecil: 1.4
Loup: 0.6
Hendriks: 0.7
Tepera: 0.1
Also: Jenkins, Sanchez, Delabar, Shultz at 0 or -0.1

Clearly the pen is a weakness as are starters past #1
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 11:29 AM EST (#314883) #
Please, please, please, please, never, never, ever play Chris Colabello in LF again. That was ugly.

As much as we can speculate on Rogers cutting Payroll, the optics of that are abysmally bad. As little as Rogers is respected by anyone, that's very bad business and they are very good business people.

If Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna are in the Starting Rotation for 2016, any chance of Tony LaCava continuing as G.M. beyond this year will have vanished. Both will be severely inning-limited before season ends. Ideally, both should start in the Bullpen with Sanchez reprising the Estrada role. This still means you need to sign two quality Relievers.

Signing a Top Starter should be possible, but the reluctance to lose a 1st round pick (#25 or lower) might limit options. David Price (#1 Starter), Johnny Cueto (#1), Marco Estrada (#3), Kenta Maeda (#2) and Scott Kasmir (#3) can be signed without losing a pick. But beyond Price, Cueto and possibly Maeda, would you even want to? Of those with Qualifying Offers, Zack Greinke (#1), Jordan Zimmerman (#1) and possibly Wei-Yin Chin (#2) could be signed, but beyond that, would you want to?
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rtcaino - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 12:18 PM EST (#314884) #
"Fangraphs gave out their "Numbers GGs" in the AL yesterday. Russell Martin got a gold; Donaldson and Pillar got bronzes. Bautista got an iron which was not surprising given his shoulder problem."

No surprise - Melky got an Iron. Somewhat surprising, Gose also got an iron.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 12:42 PM EST (#314885) #
Options for the Team going forward have Russell Martin, Josh Thole and not good enough as the third Catching option. Josh Thole has shown if he hits regularly, he hits fairly well. So who's the fourth catching option?

In the Outfield the Jays have Jose Bautista (RF or DH), Kevin Pillar (CF, RF, LF), Ben Revere (LF, CF), Dalton Pompey (CF, RF, LF), Michael Saunders (RF, LF, CF) and Ezequiel Carrera (LF, CF) as options next year. That's too many Outfielders. Can Saunders play? Can or should Pompey get sent down, or should he be traded? If he must play, either Jose Bautista or Ben Revere must be traded.

First Base has it's issues. Edwin Encarnacion can play a decent 1B, but he's a much better D.H. Justin Smoak has hitting issues, but is a great defensive 1B with limited range. Chris Colabello hits very, very well. He has an adventure playing 1B. Matt Hague is another option. If they can upgrade here, preferably LHB, and get better?

Second Base is Devon Travis and Short Stop is Troy Tulowitzki. They hit very well and play their positions very well. Their only quality backup is Ryan Goins. He's excellent defensively, but still doesn't hit well or consistently. Whoever's the next backup isn't good enough, but until the Bench gets bigger, that won't change.

Jose Donaldson must stay healthy at Third base. It's impossible to replace an All-Start/MVP like him. Other than maybe Ryan Goins (not a good choice) or just possibly Matt Dominguez (not a good choice) there's no one even close to being good enough. But until the Pitching is resolved, these issues may have to wait.

At least two Top Starters and two Top Relievers must be signed or otherwise acquired, but if money's not a problem?
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monkeyman - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 01:09 PM EST (#314886) #
Heard La Cava on with Hayes yesterday and he said he and AA still are talking daily and he just had lunch with him. AA is going to the GM meetings also. I'd be interested to know how much baseball they are still talking about.

Agree with CF, getting the Revere trade for rotation piece is maybe the most important and difficult part of this offseason.

I believe it's likely that Shapiro wants to keep both our 1st rounder and the Estrada QO pick to help refurbish the farm. Interestingly, our 1st could actually turn out to be in the 17-19 range with all of the QO'd FAs.

If that is the case then it would make sense for him to be very aggressive in the bullpen market for guys like Soria, Bastardo, even Lowe and move at least one of Osuna and Sanchez to the rotation. I'd like to see them both start out in the rotation with Hutch spending some time in Buffalo to get some command and confidence back.
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SK in NJ - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 01:57 PM EST (#314887) #
Colabello should never touch the outfield ever again. He's 1B or DH. That's it.

If the Jays trade Revere, then it should be to open up LF for either Saunders (who is a massive uncertainty with his injury) or Pompey who fits more along with what Shapiro preached in Cleveland which was developing from within. It's just a matter of whether they feel Pompey is ready. I think it might be better to have Pompey start in AAA again and be available in case of injury, but then you'd be depending a lot on Saunders being healthy. Revere might be necessary to keep around, but sure if you can get a solid SP option for him, then go for it.

As far as Estrada, I think the QO was made because they had a good idea that he'd reject it, and the worst case scenario (one year, $16m) was a scenario they could live with. I doubt this regime has any intention of signing him long-term, nor should they. You can point to the change up and all that, but the two things that jump out at me are the 8.7% HR/FB (career 11.1%) and .216 BABIP (career .261). Chris Young is a known FIP beater but his BABIP rates have been consistently low his entire career so at least you can point to a pattern, and even then he's getting small contracts. There's no such pattern for Estrada so you're putting a lot of faith in his 2015 numbers. I wouldn't be very comfortable with that. If he accepts the QO, then that's the risk you take for wanting a pick, but if he rejects it, then move on to someone else. I'm quite sure he'll reject it based on history.
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ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 02:00 PM EST (#314888) #
Bob McGown said on PTS last night that a "bird" in Rogers told him that Rogers plans to substantially reduce Jays payroll.

Partial quotes can be misleading. This is what McCown apparently said:

"A bird told me that Rogers was planning on reducing the payroll for the Toronto Blue Jays this year ... and reducing it quite dramatically.

Rather than report that, I contacted another bird; both of whom would be in a position to possibly know this, and he denied it. Said they're still negotiation, discussing what the budget would be. He said it would be nonsense to suggest there would be a dramatic reduction in payroll."

How could they possibly 'dramatically' reduce payroll? Martin, Tulowitzki, Bautista, Encarnacion and Dickey are owed 71 million. Estrada is guaranteed 15.8 if he accepts. Donaldson, Revere, Saunders, Cecil, Loup, Hutchison, Smoak and Thole are all eligible for arbitration. Donaldson at least is going to get a whack of an increase. That's barely half the 25 man roster, and the total is closing in on last year's Opening Day number of 125 million. Unless they're planning on filling out the 25 man with members of J Force, I don't think that's in the cards.

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Mylegacy - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 03:05 PM EST (#314889) #
On the payroll. Shapiro has said, at least twice that I've PERSONALLY: read, seen or heard, that we are clearly in a "go for it window" situation and that "in a go for it situation" "that is one of the few times when you may/can spend in excess to your income in the short term" and "we even did that in Cleveland."

I'm POSITIVE he is too good a "manager" to say that unless he has been promised/expects to be able to have enough of a payroll to (at least) try and "go for it." IF - Rogers cuts payroll now they will be undercutting the guy they brought in, who's job it is, to lower costs IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM, by not permitting him to spend in the one situation he has been publicly quoted as saying is appropriate.

After reading all the tea leaves at the bottom of my crystal scotch glasses I'm almost positive Rogers will not destroy 2016. However, we must still remember Rogers is Rogers and they rarely miss an opportunity to surprise to the downside...

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uglyone - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 03:20 PM EST (#314891) #
"How could they possibly 'dramatically' reduce payroll? Martin, Tulowitzki, Bautista, Encarnacion and Dickey are owed 71 million."

would be quite easy to trade most of those guys for good packages of prospects.
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King Ryan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 03:29 PM EST (#314892) #
Come on, guys. Rogers might not be the most sympathetic of owners, but they're not Jeffrey Loria.
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uglyone - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 03:31 PM EST (#314893) #
"A year ago, very few people believed that Estrada had the potential to be a top starting pitcher (the number 3 starter on a division-winning team, which is what he was by the end of the season)"

meh, more than one of us thought he was a good buy low candidate that had a good chance of being an effective SP for us.....and a better pickup than one of the many more expensive FA middling SP that many wanted us to be buying last offseason.

this was a good strategy, and should be used again. Of course, your GM has to be good.

"Jim Callis reports from the AFL All-Star game in MLB.Com that Chad Girodo looks like he may be major-league ready in the situational lefty role. CF was right about a couple of surprising things last year- Colabello and Girodo."

so hard to judge potential loogys from mlb numbers as we have no idea how strict their usage is down there....but girodo has had pretty much the identical development path as Loup, but with far far better numbers.

i'd probably still stay pessimistic until proven otherwise but he's exactly the type of flexible option i like seeing our bullpen built with.
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uglyone - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 03:32 PM EST (#314894) #
"Clearly the pen is a weakness as are starters past #1"

actually that war indicates a pretty good bullpen.
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China fan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 03:35 PM EST (#314895) #
I'd have to assume that the QO to Estrada is a fairly strong indication that Rogers is not insisting on a lower payroll for 2016.  Otherwise why take the risk that Estrada might accept the $16-million?  And since the owners have just finished witnessing and enjoying the tremendous financial benefits of having a division-winning team in 2015, you'd really have to assume that they wouldn't want to deliberately weaken the team's playoff chances in 2016.  But who knows, the owners have done illogical things before, they could do them again.  I suppose it's possible that Shapiro has promised the owners that he can deliver a winning team on a smaller budget.  I don't see how he could realistically make the playoffs by slashing the budget and getting rid of top players, but who knows what pressure he might be under or what promises he might have made?
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China fan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 03:42 PM EST (#314896) #
"....more than one of us thought he was a good buy low candidate that had a good chance of being an effective SP for us...."

Yes, and if you read the rest of my post, I specifically alluded to the fact that some fans did think this about Estrada at the time.  Several of us Bauxites thought he was a good buy-low pickup.  But many others were unimpressed by Estrada, as the Bauxite trade thread at the time clearly showed.  More importantly, most GMs didn't expect Estrada to be as good as he was in 2015, or else they could easily have offered more than Adam Lind for him.   And the whole point of "buy low" is that these are gambles, not probable successes.   It's very easy to say "buy low" on the stock market or the trade market -- but if it was so easy to figure out the "buy low" stocks, we'd all be billionaires.  It's not easier in baseball than it is on the stock market.
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uglyone - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 04:15 PM EST (#314897) #
I wanted to look at those projections you posted, John.....but i wanted to remove the injury factor which i always think is near useless to try and project.

Also note that these are Steamer projections which aren't quite as vetted as older projection systems. still fun though.

So i'll project them out to WAR paces per 650pa/200ip.


1) 2B D.Travis (25): 105wrc+, 3.1war/650pa
2) 3B J.Donaldson (30): 131wrc+, 5.9war/650pa
3) RF J.Bautista (35): 138wrc+, 4.1war/650pa
4) DH E.En'cion (33): 136wrc+, 3.3war/650pa
5) SS T.Tulowitzki (31): 111wrc+, 4.2war/650pa
6) 1B C.Colabello (32): 107wrc+, 1.2war/650pa
7) C R.Martin (33): 105wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
8) LF M.Saunders (29): 99wrc+, 1.7war/650pa
9) CF K.Pillar (27): 97wrc+, 3.0war/650pa

B) UT J.Smoak (29): 99wrc+, 0.8war/650pa
B) OF D.Pompey (23): 93wrc+, 2.0war/650pa
B) IF R.Goins (28): 69wrc+, 0.3war/650pa
B) C J.Thole (29): 70wrc+, 0.4war/650pa

B) UT M.Hague (30): 105wrc+, 1.6war/650pa
B) OF B.Revere (28): 88wrc+, 1.0war/650pa
B) IF D.Barney (30): 66wrc+, 0.6war/650pa
B) C A.Jimenez (26): 66wrc+, 1.0war/650pa



SP M.Stroman (25): 3.70era, 3.4war/32gs
SP R.Osuna (21): 3.51era, 3.2war/32gs
SP D.Hutchison (25): 4.11era, 2.1war/32gs
SP R.Dickey (41): 4.29era, 1.6war/32gs
SP A.Sanchez (23): 4.43era, 1.4war/32gs
SP C.Jenkins (28): 4.74era, 0.8war/32gs

RP B.Cecil (29): 2.91era, 1.4war/65ip
RP L.Hendriks (27): 2.97era, 0.8war/65ip
RP A.Loup (28): 3.26era, 0.7war/65ip
RP R.Tepera (28): 3.93era, 0.2war/65ip
RP S.Delabar (32): 3.91era, 0.0war/65ip
RP B.Schultz (30): 4.07era, 0.0war/65ip
RP P.Venditte (31): 4.05era, 0.0war/65ip
RP B.Rowan (26): 4.33era, 0.0war/65ip
RP C.Jenkins (28): 4.74era, -0.2war/65ip
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uglyone - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 04:29 PM EST (#314898) #
"More importantly, most GMs didn't expect Estrada to be as good as he was in 2015, or else they could easily have offered more than Adam Lind for him. And the whole point of "buy low" is that these are gambles, not probable successes. It's very easy to say "buy low" on the stock market or the trade market -- but if it was so easy to figure out the "buy low" stocks, we'd all be billionaires. It's not easier in baseball than it is on the stock market."

1. Adam Lind is a good player.
2. it's not that these aren't gambles, more that the "safeness" of more expensive middling talent is extremely overrated - those "safer" pickups you may want are extremely risky themselves....which can really screw you if you give them a contract which locks them into a roster spot no matter what. all players are risky. Red Sox thought they had "safe" pickups like porcello and sandoval, and they were anything but. For me, the difference in performance risk is more than made up for by the risk-assuaging flexibility these buy low guys come with. If Estrada sucked last year, no biggie. If Porcello sucked, uh oh.
3. These buy low candidates are easier to spot than you might think. Marco had solid average starting numbers across the board for his career as an SP when we picked him up, and a crazy HR rate to explain the bad year...and apparently no red lights in terms of injury or velocity changes. All it takes is to be willing to trust the bigger sample sizes on guys coming off bad years - as long as there are no serious red flags suggesting a permanent change in talent.
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jerjapan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 04:59 PM EST (#314899) #
"Jim Callis reports from the AFL All-Star game in MLB.Com that Chad Girodo looks like he may be major-league ready in the situational lefty role."

The Jays under AA often used the AFL to get innings for relief 'prospects'. Zep and Farquhar in 2010, Loup and Evan Crawford in 2011, Sam Dyson in 2012, Tyler Ybara in 2013, Blake McFarland and Arik Sikula (since released) last year and this year Girodo. 

So that would be 4 guys who are now established big league relievers - I'd bet that Girodo and McFarland both have a strong shot at the big league pen next year.  Girodo is already the 3rd arm on our LH relief depth chart. 
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China fan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 05:11 PM EST (#314900) #
Ugly, let me phrase it this way:  is it likely that the Jays can trade Revere for a starting pitcher who is capable of doing what Estrada did in 2015?   I don't mean, "is this remotely possible" -- I mean, is it realistically likely that the Jays can acquire one of their 5 starting pitchers in exchange for Revere?  Because that's the original question that we were debating.  Personally I would be uncomfortable going into 2016 with the assumption that a low-cost trade pickup -- acquired for Revere -- would be one of the 5 starters that the Jays would depend on for one-fifth of their starts (unless the Jays are very lucky).  I think the chances of finding a reliable starter are better on the free-agent market, especially when so many free-agent pitchers are available this off-season. Sure, some free agents don't work out.  But a huge number of low-cost trade pickups don't work out either.  In the Jays case, they've traded for "buy-low" pitchers such as Sergio Santos, Esmil Rogers, Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart who -- for a variety of reasons -- didn't perform as strongly as we might have expected.  I don't think trades are necessarily superior to free agency.

As I've argued before, Estrada is still a "buy-low" candidate for the Jays this year because of his desire to return to the team, and because other teams will be deterred by the draft pick.  I'll be disappointed if Rogers and Shapiro can't find $30 or $35 million to lock him up for 3 seasons. The price tag is relatively low and the chances of success are quite high.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 05:37 PM EST (#314901) #
I think we have to go back to the final Alex Anthopoulos "offer" from Rogers. I think this was what most sites/people were reporting. It was five years with an opt out after the first year, if he didn't like how the Team was going. It was for a lot more money than he was ever offered before or ever made before.

I think we have to now look at what Shapiro did when he took over. He picked up $36.0 Millions in options for R.A. Dickey, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. He gave Free Agent RHP Marco Estrada a Qualifying Offer of $15.8 Million, who was paid $3.9 Million in 2015. If Payroll's tight, he need not do anything.

Throw in the excitement, the roar of the crowds, the magic of the moments, with increased butts in the seats, massive spikes in TV viewership, six Home Playoff Games, massive amounts of increased revenue across the board. I'd do anything possible to keep the excitement back. Roger's PR Department is almost non-existent when it comes to the Baseball Team. Most of the Business People that deal with the Team have the personality of a turnip. They royally screwed the pouch in the A.A. disaster. Still there is an excitement that won't go away, because people believe all things are still possible.

The GM Meeting is almost over, with Free Agency starting soon. Who gets signed by who and how much is spent should give be good window on where the Jays going. Two Top Starters (at least one LHP) and two Top Relievers (at least one LHP) are needed. Anyone else acquired might mean even more money is available.
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jensan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 06:20 PM EST (#314902) #
Richard
domt care about AA
Jays add Girado as a LOOGY.
Sign C Davis 5/100.
Trade EE + Colabello.for Taijuan Walker plus Carson Smith
Trade Dickey, Thole + Revere for Shields + Norris (C) +$15 million over 3 years
Sign Brett Andersom or Scott Kazmir 3/36 or Leake over 5/70.
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John Northey - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 06:35 PM EST (#314903) #
The buy low theory is why AA had dozens of pro scouts - an effort to find the best buy low candidates and then go out and get them. Also to try to tell which prospects will become solid ML'ers and which will flame out so you know who to trade away and who to hold onto.

I suspect his years in Cleveland make Shapiro good at finding quality bargains but he might have more trouble on the expensive end as he is used to just not looking at them. This is where LaCava comes in. Under AA since 2013 at least he has known the Jays need to dig into top end talent regardless of price as they might acquire them. We'll see how these two work together. Might be a solid match or it might not work. Lets hope.
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uglyone - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 06:54 PM EST (#314904) #
"they've traded for "buy-low" pitchers such as Sergio Santos, Esmil Rogers, Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart who"

none of those were buy low guys imo.

drabek and Stewart were prospects (with middling to poor numbers).

Santos was a top closer we gave up a top prospect for.

Esmil Rogers sucked and we gave up a starting mlber and a prospect with good numbers - that was a crazy buy high.



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ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 07:41 PM EST (#314905) #
would be quite easy to trade most of those guys for good packages of prospects.

Really? At least three of them have no trades. In addition, I suspect the contracts of Martin and Tulowitzki would be very difficult to move. You're not getting Jeff Hoffman for Tulowitzki, let alone the others traded with him. Dickey's not bringing much back, certainly not either one of Syndergaard or D'Arnaud, let alone both, and Bautista and Encarnacion both have 10/5 with only one year left under contract. I don't see this scenario at all.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 09:03 PM EST (#314906) #
Chris Davis's Agent will be looking for 6 or more years at $20.0 Million or more. His Agent is Boris Corp., not the Jays favorite Agent.
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Mike Green - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 09:06 PM EST (#314907) #
If Rogers cuts payroll for 2016, extreme measures would be called for. Will there be a Batters Box equivalent of Notgraphs to lead the charge? I envisage "Out of the Box" replete with enhanced video of the bat flip put to good use...
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jerjapan - Sunday, November 08 2015 @ 11:11 PM EST (#314908) #
CDBC, martin was an elite free agent last year, and he's coming off a strong season. Are you suggesting that free agents only have value in the first year of their contract? Or do you disagree with the majority of industry people that liked the signing? I assume you know that contracts like this are the industry standard now?
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 12:10 AM EST (#314909) #
Martin is the 2nd best catcher in baseball, Tulowitzki is the best SS in baseball. Of course they have plenty of value.
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Michael - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 03:05 AM EST (#314910) #
Richard SS, we've had this conversation before last year, but the Jays don't need a LHP starter. They need quality starters - plural, but there is no need for one or more of them to be LHP. You take what you can get, and better to have better starting pitching than a worse-but-LH starting pitching. In the pen, where you will deploy pitchers situationally to take advantage of platoon matchups and can use a LOOGY type, having LHP options is an advantage. But in the starting rotation you don't deploy things situationally.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to magically have a cheap Price pitching for the Jays. But the starting rotation is the least important part to care about handedness. The bullpen matters, elsewhere less so.
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ISLAND BOY - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 06:55 AM EST (#314911) #
Is it really outlandish to consider trying to sign Price to whatever the current market value is, regardless of which arm he pitches with ? Having Price on the team would most likely keep the casual fans who jumped on the Jay's bandwagon this summer interested, which would help keep attendance high at the ballpark and maintain good television ratings. This revenue would be supplemented by merchandise sales and a possible return to the playoffs. If the team is retooled after 2016, then maybe he could be traded for top prospects in the future. I think the Jays have a unique opportunity with David Price. Unlike other top free agents he has actually played here, lived in the city and made friends on the team. He is, by all accounts, an exemplary team mate and would form a terrific one-two punch with Marcus Stroman. I am a realist, though, and with the Canadian dollar way down, a big ticket item like Price likely isn't going to happen. On the other hand, Rogers is a billion dollar corporation, they should be able to get it done. It's too bad we don't have an eccentric billionaire individual owner who just wanted to win. Maybe him and I could become pals, and he could fly me in to watch games from his private luxury box and I could have a t-shirt cannon to blast David Price jerseys all over the stadium and ... ( sigh ), never mind.
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85bluejay - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 07:08 AM EST (#314912) #
Buster Onley is suggesting that AA & Shapiro should be able to work out their differences and have AA back as GM - similar to the Epstein/Lucchino power struggle in Boston (2004) - the fact that Tony LaCava accepted the acting GM position without any assurance that he would even be a candidate for the permanent job (Shapiro nicely sidestepped that issue in his presser) lends some credence to that idea IMO - this soap opera may have another twist.
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85bluejay - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 07:15 AM EST (#314913) #
I know that the GM meetings are generally not where much action happens - usually lots of groundwork for future action but I'm expecting some actual trades this week - I hope the Jays can at least find a home for Ben Revere.
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SK in NJ - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 07:51 AM EST (#314914) #
The problem with re-signing Price is that he is 30-years old and has 1505 career innings (regular and post season). The age and the mileage make a seven year deal a hugely risky proposition, especially when you have to deal with outbidding teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, and others. It might make short-term sense to do it, but this team's window is already pretty short. Adding a 30m/year contract for seven years will just make any retooling effort post-2016 that much harder.

If the Jays had the Dodgers payroll, I'd say go for it. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear Rogers will be increasing payroll any time soon, so the team will have to work within the budget.
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Parker - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 09:23 AM EST (#314915) #
I fervently hope the Jays do not trade Revere. Bautista has been one of the worst defenders in baseball over the last two seasons, Saunders still hasn't shown he's recovered, and Pillar may not continue to produce enough with the bat to justify a starting job. Carrera was terrible in the field. Pompey isn't any safer a bet to make the team this year than he was last year.

Maybe the team should have an actual ML-ready replacement for Revere before moving him? Lack of depth has been a huge issue for Blue Jays teams in the past as recently as LAST YEAR'S OUTFIELD.
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 09:45 AM EST (#314916) #
In his brief time this season, pompey was already better than revere.

Island Boy - I agree that Price literally checks every single possible box. And even the potential dead years at the end od the contract come after the current core's contracts are all up and when we'll likely be rebuilding anyways.

That Olney article is pretty itnteresting, even if it's an unlikely conclusion.
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Mike Green - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 09:46 AM EST (#314917) #
Here is an interesting piece from Dave Cameron on this year's free agent class, with some details on team revenues that I was not aware of.  In short, MLB is a tech leader and the clubs are in the process of reaping some of the benefits.
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ComebyDeanChance - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 09:46 AM EST (#314918) #
Buster Onley is suggesting that AA & Shapiro should be able to work out their differences and have AA back as GM - similar to the Epstein/Lucchino power struggle in Boston

There is a radio interview with Anthopoulos on mlb network from yesterday in which he says "no chance", that his decision was made over a long period of time and won't be revisited. He also made an interesting comment about not needing to do the GM role again, suggesting to me at least that he sees himself as presidential material.

I think Beyonder hit the nail on the head in a previous thread where he identified the core of this as Anthopoulos doing what he thinks is in his self-interest rather than the 'Poor Alex the Victim Who Lost His Autonomy' narrative. I suspect he may have believed the President job should have been his, or else he didn't want his resume to show even one year of being a 'supervised' GM. There would have been no skin off his nose to take the one year opt out if he really wanted to come back.

I have to wonder what some thought last year and this when Duquette and Shapiro were being discussed as President. I have to wonder why some thought the Blue Jays were hiring a baseball president and not just a finance one, if it wan't to give oversight to the front office. I don't recall a lot of comment then about the sanctity of Anthopoulos' autonomy.
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 10:15 AM EST (#314919) #
was reviewing the fangraphs projections John referred to and noticed the jays ranked 3rd mlb and 1st AL in team WAR for next year. that doesn't include QO guys like Estrada. not bad.
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 10:19 AM EST (#314920) #
"I have to wonder why some thought the Blue Jays were hiring a baseball president and not just a finance one, if it wan't to give oversight to the front office. "

it used to be that GMs became presidents and that actually changed their job description. i agree that doesn't seem to be the case anymore though.
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John Northey - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 10:30 AM EST (#314921) #
I'm wondering if AA is now holding out for the next expansion round or for a team moving to have a whole new challenge - building from the ground up.
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bpoz - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 10:48 AM EST (#314922) #
AA is smart. Some team will do badly. We all know this. His resume will look good when these bad teams start searching.

Some rich teams could look bad if they have a 2nd bad year in a row. Boston, LAA, Washington & Detroit to name a few.
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jerjapan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 11:07 AM EST (#314924) #
Revere is an asset so no way would I non-tender the guy, but we can certainly swallow losing him.   If you look at Uglyone's steamer projections over 650ABs earlier in the thread, both Saunders and Pompey are projected to be significantly more valuable than Revere.  Carerra, if he's still around, is fine as a fifth OF. 

Dwight Smith should be ready sometime next year although the second half of his season in AA was pretty ugly, certainly his worst pro season since his rookie year.  And of course, AAA will have it's typical collection of AAAA types - Zeke was a minor league FA last year, and we got guys like Cola, Schultz and Hague as waiver claims - plenty of value to be had this way, especially for a team like us with few senior prospects needing protection on the 40 man or taking spots on the AAA roster.

Bautista has clearly slipped defensively, but it's not as if Gibby has been using a defensive replacement for him anyway. 

Count me in on the Price pipe-dream - 7 x30 million seems fair and doable.  If we bring back all our arb guys not named Darwin Barney, trade Revere for a cost controlled reliever, and get Estrada on a three year deal 3x12 million, we are just over $140 million next year.  Not insane at all for Rogers, and a huge boost for the fans.  Miami has shown that mega contracts are entirely tradeable for value and if 2016 is a bust, we can start to retool.  this entire team for a full season, (minus a couple of bullpen arms), could be a juggernaut and that's a lot of extra revenue at the gate. 

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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 11:10 AM EST (#314925) #
So using fangraphs' WAR projections and Bref's salary numbers I get the Jays having one of the best rosters in baseball with 25 man roster payroll of about $95m - if we move Revere.
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China fan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 11:27 AM EST (#314926) #
".... I suspect he may have believed the President job should have been his, or else he didn't want his resume to show even one year of being a 'supervised' GM...."

Who on this planet would win a division title, plus the "Executive of the Year" award, and then happily accept a demotion to the junior role of "supervised GM"?   You make it sound like Anthopoulos must be selfish to reject a demotion.  Who the heck would be willing to accept a demotion after his peers have voted him (by a landslide) as the best executive in the entire major leagues?


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ayjackson - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 11:31 AM EST (#314927) #
probably the same guy who allegedly thought he was two months from collecting pogey at the end of July
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China fan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 11:34 AM EST (#314928) #
AY, you're referring to the same guy who was allegedly so desperate to "save his job" that he traded away the farm for a rental?
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China fan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 11:41 AM EST (#314929) #
On another subject:  Jose Bautista has just published a stunning account of what it was like to hit his famous Game 5 home run against Texas -- and why he did the famous bat-flip afterwards.  It's one of the best first-person accounts that I've ever read by a player about such a historic moment.  Read it.  Here's the link:

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/jose-bautista-bat-flip/

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dalimon5 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 11:49 AM EST (#314930) #
Perfectly said Ayjackson.

CF - again, you're using hindsight and forgetting, conveniently, that the decision to replace Beeston was done before AA made his moves. It's clear to us that you think AA has been unfairly mistreated, but your comments implying that people who don't hold the same view don't have a "right mind" are off base. AA had a unique situation that most didn't have and for him to leave the organization he loves because he wanted a higher position or no supervision...considering he didn't get the job done (at the time the decision was made)...many people, myself included, don't think he earned a promotion.

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Parker - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 11:59 AM EST (#314931) #
In his brief time this season, pompey was already better than revere.

You must really not think very much of Revere as a player. But by all means, trade him for a starter better than Hutchison or a reliever better than Bo Schultz and Aaron Loup.
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China fan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 12:08 PM EST (#314932) #
"....for him to leave the organization he loves because he wanted a higher position or no supervision..."

You guys are imagining stuff.   I've never said "AA was a victim" or "poor little AA" or "wah, wah, he was badly treated."  That's the narrative that the anti-AA crowd has dreamed up to trivialize the issues.   Anthopoulos will be fine. He made his decision, he'll find another executive job somewhere else at a time of his choosing.  What I've said is this:  Rogers damaged the organization's image and reputation, and damaged their own internal talent pool, by foolishly dumping a top executive who would have happily stayed if he'd been treated with respect.  It's bad for the franchise.  It's not a fatal wound, and the franchise will obviously recover if it makes the playoffs in 2016.   But if you think Rogers didn't damage the team's image by dumping AA, you've obviously paid no attention to the vast majority of public comments by most fans (and most media) in Toronto since AA's departure.
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Dave Till - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 12:34 PM EST (#314934) #

You must really not think very much of Revere as a player.

My thought on Revere was that he couldn't utilize his full skill set in Toronto. He's a very good base stealer, but the Jays didn't really need a leadoff man who could steal bases. All they really needed was people who could get on base so that the middle of the lineup could drive them in. Revere stole 24 bases in 96 games in Philly, but only 7 in 56 games in Toronto.

Given this, the Jays might be able to flip him for something else that they need, and then install a leadoff hitter who can reach base but maybe doesn't run as well.

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dalimon5 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 12:39 PM EST (#314935) #
More people believing in a narrative doesn't make it any more valid. Why would I give any credence to other fans and writers when everything coming from the source...AA and Shapiro, points to the contrary?

Answer me this: do you think that Rogers would have ruined their image and treated AA without respect...do you think that that opinion of yours would be the same if the Blue Jays finished at 500 with a 5th straight year of no playoff baseball under AA and Beeston? Because you keep referring to favs like AA's executive of the year award and the post season run, things that ultimately had no bearing on Rogers decision to look for a replacement GM.

AA saw the writing on the wall, went for it after the fact, then you jumped the gun and are making assumptions that Rogers has made errors (letting AA go because they treated him without respect). AA left on his own accord. If he needs the right "respect" and the ability to call all the shots or not have an equal executive with equal or more power to him...then I got news for you, he's going to have a hard time finding another job where he can spend millions upon millions of someone else's money.

He may not be selfish or self interested in your books, but AA is certainly not a company man. When you quit a job and go on a run of interviews across the continent...that just looks bad on you. Boo hoo, you lost your friend as your boss and you made a strong effort after it had been decided you were not getting a promotion...good riddance.

If AA went for it earlier and had this success, or if AA went on record saying " Rogers tied my hands" then j would share your opinion of Rogers making an ill advised decision, but all of the knowledge and statements from the man himself are to the contrary.
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92-93 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 12:46 PM EST (#314936) #
It's very realistic that the Jays can acquire one of their 5 SPs for Revere, considering that right now both Sanchez and Osuna would have to be penciled in to a rotation that includes Hutchison. Revere is a 2 WAR player in Arb2, which means there's plenty of surplus value there. I'm not going to search through all the trades that were made at the end of 2014 when you need to look no further than the Jays to see 2 similar concept trades that were consummated - Lind for Estrada, and Happ for Saunders.

If the Jays are looking for an SP without having to materially affect the offense/defense and/or spend a ton of money, Revere is the obvious capital you start with.
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 12:53 PM EST (#314937) #
"You must really not think very much of Revere as a player."

I dunno about that. He is what he is - a 2ish WAR averagish type player who projects to be our worst starter next year. good average, good speed, weak D, no walks, no power. I just don't think we need to spend $6-7m on our worst position player, especially when our best prospect is knocking on the door - and when our best prospect projects as a similar hitter but with better speed and much better defense.

Last year:

Revere 634pa, 1.9fwar, 2.6bwar, 2.25awar, 2.3awar/650pa
Pompey 103pa, 0.2fwar, 0.7bwar, 0.45awar, 2.8awar/650pa

and that doesn't include Revere's awful postseason or Pompey's valuable postseason contributions.

i have no problem with the jays taking the longview on pompey after the debacle of a start, but there's a solid argument to be made that we would have been a better team, regular season and playoffs, if we had stuck with pompey.

as for going forward:

Career

Revere (27): 2660pa, 87wrc+, 6.9spd, +2.8uzr/150, -4.0drs/150
Pompey (22): 146pa, 88wrc+, 8.4spd, +4.1uzr/150, +22.0drs/150

Steamer Projection 2016

Revere (28): 88wrc+, 6.1spd, -6.4def
Pompey (23): 93wrc+, 6.2spd, +0.1def


and pompey's track record is still elite prospect stuff, even with the bad start this year:

A+ (21-21): 317pa, 11.0bb%/17.7k%, .380babip/.319avg, .152iso, 150wrc+
AA (21-22): 275pa, 9.1bb%/14.9k%, .361babip/.325avg, .187iso, 158wrc+
AAA (21-22): 351pa, 11.1bb%/14.5k%, .350babip/.297avg, .075iso, 118wrc+
MLB (21-22): 146pa, 7.5bb%/24.0k%, .284babip/.226avg, .165iso, 88wrc+

That is still a stellar track record for his age and level...even for a hitting prospect, let alone a speed and defense CF prospect. the mysterious power outage in AAA is the only flaw in that profile.

even better, his awful start this season seems to be firmly in the past now:

On way down:

MLB: 91pa, 6.6bb%/24.2k%, .237babip/.193avg, .145iso, 63wrc+
AAA: 102pa, 10.8bb%/19.6k%, .268babip/.209avg, .044iso, 59wrc+

On the way back up:

AA: 148pa, 7.4bb%/15.5k%, .387babip/.351avg, .194iso, 175wrc+
AAA: 193pa, 13.0bb%/10.9k%, .364babip/.327avg, .086iso, 143wrc+
MLB: 12pa, 8.3bb%/8.3k%, .500babip/.455avg, .182iso, 215wrc+



with everyone stressing about our roster apparently aging and getting expensive, I don't really get why we wouldn't go with Pompey, with all of Saunders, Carrera, Smith, and Alford as depth in AA or higher next year.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 12:58 PM EST (#314938) #
Thanks for posting that Joey Bats article CF, well said JB. A must read IMO.
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 01:01 PM EST (#314939) #
"What I've said is this: Rogers damaged the organization's image and reputation, and damaged their own internal talent pool, by foolishly dumping a top executive who would have happily stayed if he'd been treated with respect. It's bad for the franchise. "

it certainly won't help our FA chances this year.
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Hodgie - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 01:12 PM EST (#314940) #
"Answer me this: do you think that Rogers would have ruined their image and treated AA without respect...'

In other words, treat AA exactly like they treated Beeston?

"AA saw the writing on the wall, went for it after the fact, then you jumped the gun and are making assumptions that Rogers has made errors (letting AA go because they treated him without respect). AA left on his own accord. If he needs the right "respect" and the ability to call all the shots or not have an equal executive with equal or more power to him...then I got news for you, he's going to have a hard time finding another job where he can spend millions upon millions of someone else's money. He may not be selfish or self interested in your books, but AA is certainly not a company man. When you quit a job and go on a run of interviews across the continent...that just looks bad on you. Boo hoo, you lost your friend as your boss and you made a strong effort after it had been decided you were not getting a promotion...good riddance."

Nice sentiment. Honestly, maybe dalimon5 or the other AA detractors can answer this for me, but how do you postulate AA only went for it after Shapiro was hired? If the Donaldson trade and Martin signing weren't already indications that he was going for it you and I have very different definitions of the term.

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Dave Till - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 01:23 PM EST (#314941) #
I am gradually coming to believe that there are no villains in the whole Rogers/AA/Shapiro scenario.

First, to look at it from Rogers' side. They needed to replace Beeston. AA, for all of his skills, didn't have experience on the business side of baseball. And, ideally, the president should have some experience in player development. Hence Shapiro. Plus, there's a lot of money involved here, so Rogers would want to be more closely connected to the process. (I seem to recall reading that the B.J. Ryan contract was actually a line item in Rogers' financial statement one year.)

From Shapiro's side: he would want to have at least final say in major baseball decisions - that's why he's here. And it's also his job to come up with a sound process, which the Jays didn't really have.

From AA's side: he was used to having virtually complete autonomy without having to deal with cumbersome bureaucracy. He just had to run his moves past Beeston for approval, and never dealt with anyone else at Rogers. After having experienced this freedom, why would he want to be limited by a more process-oriented structure?
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SK in NJ - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 01:31 PM EST (#314942) #
"Answer me this: do you think that Rogers would have ruined their image and treated AA without respect...do you think that that opinion of yours would be the same if the Blue Jays finished at 500 with a 5th straight year of no playoff baseball under AA and Beeston? Because you keep referring to favs like AA's executive of the year award and the post season run, things that ultimately had no bearing on Rogers decision to look for a replacement GM."


The fact that there are people out there that still don't understand the point made above makes it pretty much pointless to keep debating it. They'll never see it.

Rogers had a top 10 payroll in 2013, 2014, and 2015. The team was terrible in 2013, middling in 2014, and a one game under .500 on 7/29/15. The decision to find a replacement for AA started after the 2014 season, and the replacement actually came on board in August 2015 (so he was likely interviewed when the team was ~.500 in July-ish).

But hey, they disrespected AA by not promoting him after he had failed for 2 and a half years on a top 10 payroll. Those last two months after hiring his replacement supersede anything that happened before, apparently. Rogers should be blasted for 1) AA declining their contract offer, and 2) not being able to tell the future. It's gotten a bit ridiculous.
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John Northey - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 01:42 PM EST (#314943) #
Yeah, I think it is past time to move on...much like moving on when Farrell left and when the Jays hired a young internal choice instead of going for a vet to GM the team back in 09.

The idea situation I felt was what the Jays had - a money man on top, a GM just below him who did all the day-to-day stuff with the only stuff the president would step in on being big money items (ie: over $100 mil). I suspect that is what Shapiro / LaCava might grow into over time as Shapiro gains trust in LaCava if he does a few good moves early on and the two work well together. Guess we'll see.
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#2JBrumfield - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 03:14 PM EST (#314944) #
Jose Bautista has just published a stunning account of what it was like to hit his famous Game 5 home run against Texas -- and why he did the famous bat-flip afterwards.  It's one of the best first-person accounts that I've ever read by a player about such a historic moment.  Read it.

That motion is seconded and carried. Definitely worth the read.

Meantime, the Toronto Star has an article about the stretch drive of 1-5.
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Mike Green - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 03:27 PM EST (#314945) #
Craig Edwards in fangraphs has a look at the AL payroll situation.   The Jays are in the middle of the pack in terms of money projected to be available, on the assumption that Estrada does not accept the qualifying offer.  Edwards does offer the opinion that Estrada is the most likely of the AL free agents to accept.
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#2JBrumfield - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 04:10 PM EST (#314946) #
The Toronto Sun gets comments from AA at the GM meetings.
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jerjapan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 04:31 PM EST (#314947) #
CF - again, you're using hindsight and forgetting, conveniently, that the decision to replace Beeston was done before AA made his moves.

I think this hindsight argument is a bit of a red herring.  I've been arguing all year that AA deserves an extension -  even if you throw out the last two months of the season, or if the deadline moves backfired, he was still a great GM. 

What measurements were Rogers using to evaluate AA's performance?  The value of the franchise grew significantly under AA, attendance was trending way up, the farm system had been dramatically improved (surely if Rogers is all about value for investment, this would be a major success no?), on-field talent and performance demonstrated a team that could make the playoffs and fan interest was up - BEFORE the trade deadline.   Rogers is run by good business people - they know that some investments pay immediate dividends, some take a while to reveal their value and some are worthy misses.  If you want to replace everyone with a worthy miss on their hands (the Jays in 2013), you are going to have one risk-averse leadership. 

And of course, we have no definitive proof  that Rogers wanted AA gone - what we know is that they wanted a new president, that nobody on the ownership side had ever bothered to talk to AA, and that AA was a bright young executive with a compelling local boy narrative (a narrative that Rogers marketing team has used multiple times before - Cory Koskie anyone) who had done a lot right for the franchise.  They gave JPR 8 years to achieve demonstrably less than AA. 
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 04:56 PM EST (#314949) #
that Sun article makes me sad.

In Toronto we need an extra edge to attract elite talent, and AA showed a rare combination of vision, imagination, balls, salesmanship, and determination to attract a whole lot of it here.

with him I felt confident we'd be able to land a big fish as an FA this offseason. without him, not so much.
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dalimon5 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 05:05 PM EST (#314950) #
"I think this hindsight argument is a bit of a red herring. I've been arguing all year that AA deserves an extension - even if you throw out the last two months of the season, or if the deadline moves backfired, he was still a great GM. "


First, you're making it sound like my comment is a distraction from the point of the argument between myself and CF when in fact it was right to the point when you take the entire conversation into it's proper context (that CF thinks AA didn't deserve to be demoted after his string of success at the end of the season). See China Fan's comment here:

"You make it sound like Anthopoulos must be selfish to reject a demotion. Who the heck would be willing to accept a demotion after his peers have voted him (by a landslide) as the best executive in the entire major leagues?"

Second, the fact of the matter, once again, is that Beeston needed to be replaced and Rogers decided to look for his replacement, and possibly a new GM before AA did anything to win an Executive of the Year Award.

You arguing all year that AA deserves an extension does nothing whatsoever to support the idea you put forth that you think my comment may be a bit of a red herring.

Personally, I think Dave Till has had the best break down of the situation. I also think that people aren't looking at the situation objectively, which is to admit that they can only speculate. Some posters are stating things as if they're true and spinning it as if a crime has occurred against Anthopolous, and sneaky Rogers tried to outsmart him by offering him 10$ over 5 years with an opt out clause. My point is simple...forget about anything AA did after the writing was on the wall since that's when the decision was made not to promote him to president, if I were to guess.


It's pretty simple to avoid these circular banters instigated by the same posters... find the facts, verify the facts, make sure that those facts/events happened in a chronological manner that supports your statement. If you can't follow that reasoning, then preface your comment with "I believe" or "I personally think," or something denoting the fact that what you are writing is an opinion, not based on fact.

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SK in NJ - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 05:13 PM EST (#314951) #
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi
Sources: #Dodgers have hired international scouting executive Ismael Cruz away from #BlueJays.

I don't know enough about Cruz to really comment one way or another, but the Jays seemed to be pretty good with international signings the past few years.
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JB21 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 05:17 PM EST (#314952) #
Apparently he's one of the better Dominican scouts. As well, he's headed to a team that has essentially no money to spend for the next 2 years. I guess they're expecting he'll find them some bargain basement players.
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92-93 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 05:33 PM EST (#314953) #
"but how do you postulate AA only went for it after Shapiro was hired? If the Donaldson trade and Martin signing weren't already indications that he was going for it you and I have very different definitions of the term."

Hodgie, that's a really interesting way to frame your question. You seem to be implying that AA only went into all-in mode after Shapiro showed up. If anything, the Martin move in particular would speak to the exact opposite. The theory would be that once the Beeston-Williams-Duquette fiasco occurred, AA realized his long-term future with the club was not secure, and that it was time to start beefing up the resume. How can one do so, though, when ownership wants to keep payroll flat from the year before? I mentioned many times last offseason that it was frustrating that AA seemed to be operating knowing that any move had to be salary-neutral. Martin's deal is heavily backloaded; AA knew it wouldn't be his problem, or that if it was it meant his future was already secure.

The Donaldson move can be viewed in a similar light. While it was a great baseball trade, it had extremely little chance of backfiring for AA in 2015. Donaldson was already an MVP-calibre player, and the chances that Lawrie was better this year were very, very small. Any negative effect from that trade was likely to happen years down the line if Graveman or Barreto turn into MLB stars, and by then AA would either be gone or have enough success under his belt because Donaldson was here that it wouldn't matter - "flags fly forever".

I remember a discussion with jerjapan this summer about AAs job security impacting his deadline moves, and for me what has transpired since has only bolstered my point. I loved the trades that he made and would want any GM to make them again, but I can't help but wonder if he was signed through 2017 what the trade deadline would've looked like; I suspect a lot more like it did in 2014.
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jerjapan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 05:37 PM EST (#314954) #
It's pretty simple to avoid these circular banters instigated by the same posters... find the facts, verify the facts, make sure that those facts/events happened in a chronological manner that supports your statement. If you can't follow that reasoning, then preface your comment with "I believe" or "I personally think," or something denoting the fact that what you are writing is an opinion, not based on fact.

Uhh Dalimon... you quote me saying "I think".  Not reading my own posts is one thing - not reading your own is something else ;)

Jokes aside, my red herring comment is explicitly about your point - but I don't mean to accuse you of using an intentional red herring.  (and I don't know at what point you believe 'the writing was on the wall' for AA).   I believe we can rate AA as a successful GM before his trade deadline roll of the dice paid off big - his success after that seems to be the focus of conversation for many, and this, to me, is a distraction - hence, 'red herring'. 

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jerjapan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 05:49 PM EST (#314955) #
I hadn't noticed these numbers before, but Steve Simmons in the Sun says that the playoff run generated $48 million in increased ticket and merchandise sales post trade-deadline and suggests it go up to as much as $70 million (above projections) by April. 

I wonder if that money is accounted for separately from the team payroll?  I don't think I was alone in assuming that an increase in revenue means an increase in spending on the team, but I really have no business understanding of how this sort of accounting works. 

So would the budget be independent from short revenue spikes?  Would Rogers have been contemplating cutting the budget if not for the big finish? 

Here's the article for anyone interested:

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/11/07/simmons-says-anthopoulos-left-blue-jays-bank-account-in-great-shape

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ComebyDeanChance - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 06:01 PM EST (#314956) #
Martin is the 2nd best catcher in baseball, Tulowitzki is the best SS in baseball. Of course they have plenty of value

When I read your comment about Martin I was reminded of John Lennon's famous comment when he was asked if Ringo was the best drummer in the world, and he replied that Ringo wasn't even the best drummer in the Beatles. Not that Martin isn't the best Blue Jay catcher, but for 3 of the 5 starters last year he was the second best catcher.

More to the point, Martin is signed for $75 million for his age 33-36 years, which I think is hard to move at all, let alone move and get back your original assessment of a "good package of prospects".

Tulowitzki is certainly a needed defensive upgrade over Reyes, who was largely unplayable at short. But Tulo is signed for almost $100 million and entering his age 31 season, has only put up 500 PA's in 2 seasons since 2011. His 2015 OPS+ was 102. I think the number of teams willing to take that contract at all are few, he has a no-trade, and the chances of finding another team to take on that contract and give up a "good package of prospects" in addition, are remote.

My own preference would be for Tulowitzi and Martin to be traded. But I don't think the return for both would approach Jeff Hoffman.
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John Northey - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 06:26 PM EST (#314957) #
The Tulo trade was Colorado proving salary relief via taking Reyes and that ended up costing Hoffman. So the Jays net cost is $32 mil for 5 1/2 years of Tulo and that is a heck of a bargain (assuming Reyes was a sunk cost - he was -0.2 WAR in Colorado +0.4 overall in 2015 vs Tulo 1.4 in Toronto, 2.9 overall in 2015).
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 06:41 PM EST (#314958) #
well, if they were free agents this year, they would easily be the class of their positions, and i'm pretty sure teams would be falling all over themselves to get 31yr old Tulowitzki on a 5x$19m deal, and 33yr old russel would have little problem commanding 4x$19.

not gonna bother crunching a bunch of numbers - i'll just look at the Steamer projections this year:

SS

1. Correa 648pa, 4.2war, 4.2war/650pa
2. Tulowitzki 609pa, 3.7war, 4.0war/650pa

C

1. B.Posey 574pa, 5.3war, 6.0war/650pa
2. R.Martin 500pa, 3.5war, 4.7war/650pa

and the Marcel projections like them even better than that.

Posey the only better bet than Martin at C, and only the totally unproven 21yr old Correa even projects to beat tulo.


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Original Ryan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 07:31 PM EST (#314959) #
well, if they were free agents this year, they would easily be the class of their positions, and i'm pretty sure teams would be falling all over themselves to get 31yr old Tulowitzki on a 5x$19m deal, and 33yr old russel would have little problem commanding 4x$19.

But you're arguing that teams would be eager to pay a significant premium on top of that ("a good package of prospects") in order to acquire Martin and/or Tulowitzki now. You're basically saying that it would be easy to find someone willing to pay well above market value for them, and that's the part that's unrealistic. In order to get the "good package of prospects" the Blue Jays would likely need to eat some salary or take on an expensive player in return to make it an even trade.

It's worth noting that the Rockies couldn't get Castro and Hoffman for Tulowitzki without agreeing to take Jose Reyes and his full contract. The hypothetical "good package of prospects" wasn't even available for Tulowitzki straight up less than four months ago, so I'm not sure why it would be readily available now.

In relation to Martin, a year ago the Blue Jays were presumably the highest bidder for his services. That means the other teams that were in the market to acquire him weren't willing to sign him for as much as the Blue Jays did. When you factor in how much Martin's contract was backloaded at the time of his signing, I seriously doubt he'd get a four-year deal on the above terms this offseason if he were a free agent.

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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 07:53 PM EST (#314960) #
I think you guys are overthinking it.

These guys are elite players. Their contracts aren't cheap but they're more than fair. They aren't young but they aren't old, and the contracts expire before the really risky years.

As for the Tulo trade - it was highway robbery. No other way to describe it. Colorado overrated Reyes for the same oldskool reasons AA once overrated him.
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 08:02 PM EST (#314961) #
this reminds me of last year when people said nobody would give up anything for Cole Hamels. Of course they would. Hamels is a legit #1 pitcher. prospects mostly bust.
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Magpie - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 08:09 PM EST (#314962) #
John Lennon's famous comment when he was asked if Ringo was the best drummer in the world, and he replied that Ringo wasn't even the best drummer in the Beatles.

Lennon never said that (Ringo was one of the few people who escaped his lash), although it's been attributed to him so often it's probably too late to change the record. The line comes from a British comic named Jasper Carrott (really!).
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jerjapan - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 08:39 PM EST (#314963) #
it should go without saying that some players traded were acquired by their trading team as free agents (we certainly got SOME value out of Reyes and Buehrle).  There seems to be some sort of idea here on the Box that any such trade is a negative for the acquiring team when we talk about big ticket FAs, which implies that only the first year of a FA contract has value, or that most here wouldn't sign pricey FAs in the first place? 

A much-discussed Fangraphs article in March 2014 pegged the cost of a win (as measured by WAR) at $6 million per.  That could easily by over $6.5 by now (anyone seen up-to-date numbers)?  But let's go with $6.5.

By this metric, Fangraphs steamer predictions imply Martin to be worth $23.4 million next year, and Tulo at $24.05.

That's nearly $8.5 million over the conservative market value of their predictions. 

Even Reyes is predicted to be worth over 10 million next year, so his contract wasn't a total salary dump. 

Yes, Tulo and Martin will almost definitely decline over the course of their contracts, but of course the cost of a win will continue to increase.  And of course there are plenty of reasons for teams to overpay for a player, especially those at premium positions.

Maybe I can ask this - are there ANY big name FA contracts - this offseason or in years past - that you guys like(d)?

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SK in NJ - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 09:00 PM EST (#314965) #
There was nothing wrong with signing Martin. If anything, signing Martin to a five year deal instead of trading prospects for a similar player on a similar contract was a far better way to building the team. Martin will likely be able to recoup the value of the contract either by the 4th year or possibly sooner. He was worth $27.7m in 2015 according to FG, and they project him to have a similar season in 2016. With free agent contracts of that length to players of that age, the goal is to maximize value in the first half of the deal while expecting decline the last half. Martin's deal was and is fine.

The issue people are bringing up is value to the team vs. value as an asset. Martin provides great value to the team. As does Tulo. However, look at how their deals are structured. Martin has 4/75 left. Tulo has 5/100 left (or close to that). How many teams would realistically be able to absorb those contracts AND be willing to trade difference making assets for them?

To suggest both of them have value is accurate, but to suggest they'd be valuable trade chips is an entirely different discussion.
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rtcaino - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 09:03 PM EST (#314966) #
"As for the Tulo trade - it was highway robbery. No other way to describe it. Colorado overrated Reyes for the same oldskool reasons AA once overrated him."

I am skeptical that their rating of him played much of a part.
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ComebyDeanChance - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 09:43 PM EST (#314968) #
Lennon never said that (Ringo was one of the few people who escaped his lash), although it's been attributed to him so often it's probably too late to change the record.

Next you're gonna tell us Yogi didn't say half the things he said.
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uglyone - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 09:55 PM EST (#314969) #
Dodgers just grabbed our International Scouting Director.

that hurts.
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JB21 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 10:38 PM EST (#314970) #
We talked about it (briefly) above ugly. The weird thing is, the Dodgers have essentially no money for the next two years to spend on the international market.
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melondough - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 10:47 PM EST (#314971) #
According to mlbtraderumors.com jose Reyes has been released on bail in Hawaii for domestic assault on his wife on Halloween eve. Oy, how the mighty have fallen.
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JB21 - Monday, November 09 2015 @ 10:51 PM EST (#314972) #
Terrible news. I really liked Jose as a person and he seems to be doing some great charitable things in the DR. He also stayed very close with Joey and Edwin after the trade and seemed to be cheering for his former teammates during their playoff run.

Obviously innocent until proven guilty but athletes don't have a great track record recently.

I'm assuming MLB will be coming down hard if the allegations are true.
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ayjackson - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 08:09 AM EST (#314973) #
I'm guessing we add a FA srarter from the Leakey/Kennedy/Estrada aisle next month. With that outlay, I wonder if we can afford the contract of Craig Kimbrell.

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Lylemcr - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 11:55 AM EST (#314981) #
AyJackson. I like your thinking. Get a Leake\Estrada type pitcher, then get a solid veteran closer. I would love to see Osuna and Sanchez both as starters.

I would then look for a bargin basement vet arm as a #5\#6(like Estrada was last year), in case they are not ready.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 12:01 PM EST (#314982) #
Josh Donaldson was named the Player's Choice MLB Player of the Year.  It is voted on by players, and reported by the MLBPA. 
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uglyone - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 01:23 PM EST (#314986) #
yeah the fact that reyes would be on the verge of tears out there after big errors was a worrisome sign.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 01:27 PM EST (#314987) #
SK, you raise plenty of good points, although at times I do think that some people here are arguing value to the team, rather than - as you succinctly illustrate - value as an asset.

But let's look at tulo and martin as assets based on FA SS and catchers on the market now.

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs in predicting 4 years at $64 million for Weiters.  At the lower end of the starting catching market, he's saying 2 years, 10 million for Navarro, Chris Ianetta and Alex Avila (the only 3 other catchers predicted to be above 1 WAR for 2016).  Numerous potential contenders could use upgrades - the Rays, Mariners, Twins, Tigers, Astros, Angels and Rangers stand out for relying on guys like former jays prospect Carlos Perez. or all-Mendoza team mike zunino.

Who would you rather have - Weiters at 4 and 64 or Martin at the 4 and 67 remaining on his deal?  He's predicted to top Weiters next year by 1.3 WAR and obviously Weiters costs a comp pick to sign.   Ianetta and Avila are predicted at 1.6 and 1.5 WAR (the role player range) and require no pick.  can you contend with, say Zunino and Ianetta as your catching tandem? 

Cameron's saying 5 years and 85 million for Ian Desmond.  I've seen as high as 90 and 6 predicted for Demond.  A lower price option like Asdrubal Cabrera - 2 years, 20 million.  Who else is left?  Alexei Ramirez?  Steven Drew?  Jimmy Rollins?

Desmond, Cabrera and Rollins are the only FA SSs predicted at over 1 WAR. 

plenty of potential contenders could use an upgrade at SS - the Mets, Twins, Orioles, Padres lead the list, and aside from the Twins, could acquire a big contract. 

So who do you want if you are, say the Mets, and looking to remain an elite contender by fixing the biggest hole on your team - 5 years, 94 million for Tulo, or 5 and 85 plus a draft pick for Desmond? 

In this market, Martin and Tulo are clearly TRADE assets, and their contracts are entirely reasonable.

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jensan - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 01:48 PM EST (#314988) #
Giving up everyday defenses for once every day pitching. No Thanks! To trading Tulo or Martin.
There are more quality SP out there that you can sign as a free agent, with the $30 million allocated in this years budget. Plus you have tradable assets to achieve an additional controllable SP and reliever .
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uglyone - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 02:17 PM EST (#314989) #
Yeah i think our needs are straightforward, so our plan should be.

1. Move some of our surplus bats (i.e. revere/saunders/smoak/goins) for depth pitching - either inning eating SP or good RP.
2. Spend all available money on Price. Failing that get Iwakuma and someone else.
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uglyone - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 02:31 PM EST (#314990) #
New #BlueJays prez Shapiro and interim GM Lacava have been told by Rogers they will begin season with budget of at least $140M: source

— Rick Westhead (@rwesthead) November 10, 2015

that is more like it.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 02:33 PM EST (#314991) #
Agreed on the plan Ugly, although not on selling low on Saunders - revere likely has more value and frees up more cash for Price. 

Goins is an intriguing asset for a trade, as is Pillar, although I'd hate to make that move, he's just so fun to watch.

I haven't seen anyone talk about Cola as a trade asset, but he makes as much sense as anyone unless that BABIP scares everyone off.  Not saying he's as good as he was this year, but that's cheap offense - Stros, Angels, Nationals, As etc could use an upgrade at 1st / dh. 

Steamer doesn't like him much though, so perhaps this was a total fluke year. 

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Sal - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 02:43 PM EST (#314993) #
I don't get why people want to trade Tulo. He needs to perform at a 3WAR/year at current day $/WAR to be worth it. I think he is a good bet for 4+ WAR per year. Keep him and be set at SS for the next few years.

As many said, we need pitching. I think it would make more sense to sign 2 mid-tier pitchers than sign 1 ace. Basically, I'd rather have 2 2015-Estradas than 1 2015-Price and 1 2015-Hutchison.



[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 03:34 PM EST (#314996) #
Sal, do you have a more up to date measure of $/WAR or are you working off that same 2014 Fangraphs article Ive been referencing?
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Mike Green - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 04:11 PM EST (#314998) #
Tommy Hanson died yesterday after suffering catastrophic organ failure.  Very sad news indeed.
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Mylegacy - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 04:50 PM EST (#315000) #
Trade this guy, trade that guy - ya but...

Remember Tulo, Jose and EE ALL have to AGREE to a trade. usually, a player WON'T agree unless the team picking him up offers him some inducement to waive his "right." Sometimes, trading a guy who has the right to veto ANY trade can get complicated...just sayin"...
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JB21 - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 05:04 PM EST (#315002) #
Okay, so from 122M to 140M.

140 should keep us in the Top 10, I'd think.

We have 71M committed to 5 players, 72.6M if you could the buyouts for Izturis & Romero.
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scottt - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 05:22 PM EST (#315003) #
As many said, we need pitching. I think it would make more sense to sign 2 mid-tier pitchers than sign 1 ace. Basically, I'd rather have 2 2015-Estradas than 1 2015-Price and 1 2015-Hutchison.

Estrada is an ace. Only 4 AL pitchers finished with a better ERA. Keuchel, Price, Gray and Kazmir.
Price is worth about 27M but would cost around 30M.
Estrada is worth around 14M, but would probably cost around 16M or more. That leaves less than 14M.
Who could you get for that? Fister? Kyle Lohse? Ian Kennedy? Samardzija? Kendrick? Pelfrey?

You're most likely better off with Hutch and Price and getting a pick for Estrada than Estrada and losing a pick on a guy who will be marginally better than Hutch. Besides Price would still be highly tradeable and the other guys could become lost money.
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Lylemcr - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 05:23 PM EST (#315004) #
Goins, Cola, Saunders and Smoak are not going to get you a lot of arms. Maybe a bullpen arm or two. Or a pitcher's who contract is not favorable.

I would not trade Goins. You would never get the value out of him as a backup shortstop\2 bagger.

Cola has good value, so why trade him? Spend money in free agency instead.

Smoak will get you a bag of balls.

Saunders... will get you J.A. Happ. Do I need to say more? :)
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melondough - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 05:35 PM EST (#315005) #
If it's a $140M payroll then it appears they have approx. $30M to spend after considering estimated payroll as per Fangraphs article yesterday (by Craig Edwards).

Craig broke down Jays 2016 payroll obligations as follows:
$71M in guaranteed contracts
$33M in estimated arbitration
$5.6M in minimum salary
TOTAL: $109.6*
*This number excludes qualifying offer to Estrada

If true, then maybe the most interesting part of that tweet was the "at least" portion. Maybe they consider $145M-$150M if the circumstance warrants it (i.e. Price).

I agree with those here suggesting Jays start by trading from their strength by first moving Revere, letting Pompey and others cover LF. I think that would provide almost another $7M salary relief (if moved for a minor leaguer) and give them about $37M to spend on a back up catcher and some pitching. Of course I would be ok if they moved Revere for a starter or reliever too which would take away from this remaining budget and reduce our needs in the same breath.

So for $37M how about Price, Young (and poor man's Estrada), and Lowe?

Or maybe Estrada, Navarro, Zimmerman, and Lowe. This is on an assumption Jays can sign Estrada to a longer term deal that escalates (maybe $10M,$10M,$15M,$15M). You think Marco would go for something like that?
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jerjapan - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 05:35 PM EST (#315006) #
Well, JA Happ is clearly a solid member of the 2nd tier of starting FAs this year!  That said, he did seem to find lightning in a bottle in Pittsburgh to finish his season. 

Goins I suspect may have more value than some people think.  That glove is a thing of beauty, he showed flashes with the bat and the SS FA crop is a barren wasteland. 

Not counting on anything, but I'd be happy to give Johan Santana another invite.



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Magpie - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 06:05 PM EST (#315007) #
Goins, Cola, Saunders and Smoak are not going to get you a lot of arms.

I'd add Revere to that list. It was barely three months ago that he was traded for Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado, who aren't going to make much of an impact on anyone's near future. He's still the same guy he was then, although he'll probably be making a little more money.
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JB21 - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 06:28 PM EST (#315008) #
So add in the buyout money and you have about 30 million to spend. As well, I'm assuming the arbitration figure includes both Revere & Saunders? if so, that may free up a couple bucks as well.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 06:58 PM EST (#315009) #
The Jays should keep Goins as middle infield depth in case of injury to Tulo or Travis (and to help keep everyone rested). Tulo/Travis/Goins should ensure that the team is pretty much covered at shortstop and second base in 2016.
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Mylegacy - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 07:28 PM EST (#315010) #
Tony to get a long term contract with the Jays! Guarantees him a front office job - even if he doesn't get the GM job.
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uglyone - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 07:41 PM EST (#315011) #
"Craig broke down Jays 2016 payroll obligations as follows:
$71M in guaranteed contracts
$33M in estimated arbitration
$5.6M in minimum salary
TOTAL: $109.6*
*This number excludes qualifying offer to Estrada"

interesting.

B/R breaks it down thusly:

$71 guaranteed contracts (5)
$22.5 arbitration (9)
$8.7 minimum salaries (11)
$1.6 buyouts (2)

$103.8 total

can we figure out the discrepancy?
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 07:43 PM EST (#315012) #
"Goins, Cola, Saunders and Smoak are not going to get you a lot of arms."

we thought the same of Lind.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 08:30 PM EST (#315013) #
Let's rephrase that to "Saunders and Smoak aren't going to get you a lot of arms". 

Cola might have some value (steamer doesn't think so, but I do), and Goins does for sure. 
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 08:30 PM EST (#315014) #
Ben Revere has about the same value as R.A. Dickey and the club could use a starting pitcher of Dickey quality at Revere arb salary. There is a potential for a trade based on positional need.
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ayjackson - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 09:50 PM EST (#315015) #
Done then; we'll trade Revere for Dickey.
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 10:23 PM EST (#315016) #
Some quotes from LaCava courtesy of Mike Wilner's Twitter page.

LaCava: "(Osuna) is a different guy, he's pretty unique. I wouldn't put any lmiits on him, personally." #Bluejays #Jays

LaCava: "We haven't made any final decisions on whether to lengthen Hendriks or not, but he has the ability to do that."

LaCava: "(Prospect capital) is a lot better than most people think. Our farm is a little underrated right now." #Bluejays #Jays

LaCava on Sanchez/Osuna as starters: "We're going to try to address our needs in the market, and go from there." #Bluejays #Jays

LaCava: "Both (Sanchez and Osuna) have potential as starters, which allows us to keep an open mind." #Bluejays #Jays

LaCava: Payroll reduction rumour is "news to me". We'll have the resources to compete for a championship.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 10:30 PM EST (#315017) #
ayjackson, that made me lol. Well done.
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Sal - Tuesday, November 10 2015 @ 10:53 PM EST (#315018) #
"Sal, do you have a more up to date measure of $/WAR or are you working off that same 2014 Fangraphs article Ive been referencing?"

No, just read $7-8M/WAR being commonly used.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 10:04 AM EST (#315021) #
Nice to see LaCava extended. 

Stoeten is quoting Rick Westhead, who seems to be getting some good scoops for TSN in his new gig there, that Rogers has confirmed a minimum budget of $140 million for this season, with more possible if needed.  Great news, and again, Price is possible under this scenario.

Uglyone, do you have any sense as to why those arb predictions you cited are so different?  Predicting 12 million for Donaldson when he still has 2 years of arb left seems crazy to me and thats part of the difference, but I'm pretty unclear on arb awards in general and his case in particular. 

[ Reply to This ]
Dave Till - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 10:23 AM EST (#315022) #

Good news about LaCava. It's quite possible that Shapiro's hiring might turn out to be a Good Thing.

I have no idea what Rogers' budget is going to be, but I don't think the Jays would have extended a qualifying offer to Estrada if there was a mandate to cut back.

By the way, there's a discussion thread on Metafilter about Jose Bautista's bat flip. Thinking about the bat flip fills me with happiness.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 10:50 AM EST (#315023) #
Here's an interesting article containing Shapiro's understanding of his role. Note to editor of said article: "sticking to principals" is something done by wacky school-kids with krazy-glue. 
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mathesond - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 11:40 AM EST (#315024) #
Interesting article, Mike. One wonders if perhaps AA was a little rash in his decision to leave
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John Northey - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 11:51 AM EST (#315025) #
Imagine being in a position where you could walk away from $10 mil on principle.
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uglyone - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 12:41 PM EST (#315026) #
"Uglyone, do you have any sense as to why those arb predictions you cited are so different? Predicting 12 million for Donaldson when he still has 2 years of arb left seems crazy to me and thats part of the difference, but I'm pretty unclear on arb awards in general and his case in particular. "

i was hoping someone could shed some light on that.

do we have access to the individual arb estimates from both sources? i'd like to take a closer look.
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Lylemcr - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 01:17 PM EST (#315027) #
I like how it is leaked out that the Jays are bidding on Greinke.

Hey! Why not? Yesterday, I was at the Ferrari dealership. I sat in a Ferrari and asked the price. I am on the bidding for a Ferrari!

I think the Jays like to leak out these rumors to make the fan base happy, but kicking the tires is not the same as buying. The Jays will have to overpay for Greinke and with a 140 million$ budget, I don't see it happening. Call me a pessimist, but I have no trust in Rogers.
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uglyone - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 01:26 PM EST (#315028) #
imo Greinke would be a mistake. i don't thinK he's a Cy contender in the AL. the Steamer projection of about 4war for him (compared to about 5.5war for Price) strikes me as about right. very good pitcher, but not a guy i'd give $30m to.
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King Ryan - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 01:46 PM EST (#315029) #
Did anyone learn anything from Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, etc?

Paying stupid money for Price or any pitcher is a bad idea.
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perlhack - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 02:06 PM EST (#315030) #
We have 71M committed to 5 players, 72.6M if you could the buyouts for Izturis & Romero.

Romero was signed as a free agent to a minor league contract by the San Francisco Giants in May. Are the Jays still somehow on the hook for a buyout?

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greenfrog - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 02:11 PM EST (#315031) #
The Dodgers got pretty good value out of Greinke (despite the extra risk they assumed as a result of the opt-out clause).

LA paid him $64M from 2013-15. Per Fangraphs, Greinke was worth $105.2M over that span.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 02:12 PM EST (#315032) #
Correction: LA paid him $76M (forgot about the $12M signing bonus). Still good value for the production.
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uglyone - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 02:32 PM EST (#315033) #
Top paid pitchers:

1. Kershaw $31x7 (26): Yr1 7.7war, Yr2 8.6war
2. Scherzer $30x7 (30): Yr1 6.4war
3. Lester $26x6 (31): Yr1 5.0war
4. Verlander $26x7 (30): Yr1 4.9war, Yr2 2.9war, Yr3 2.8war
5. Hernandez $25x7 (27): Yr1 5.6war, Yr2 6.0war, Yr3 2.8war
6. Greinke $25x6 (29): Yr1 3.4war, Yr2 4.4war, Yr3 5.9war
7. Sabathia $24x5 (31): Yr1 4.7war, Yr2 2.6war, Yr3 0.1war, Yr4 1.2war
8. Lee $24x5 (32): Yr1 6.8war, Yr2 5.0war, Yr3 5.5war, Yr4 1.9war, Yr5 0.0war
9. Hamels $24x6 (29): Yr1 4.5war, Yr2 4.2war, Yr3 4.2war
10. Sabathia $23x7 (28): Yr1 5.9war, Yr2 5.1war, Yr3 6.4war, Yr4 4.7war, Yr5 2.6war, Yr6 0.1war, Yr7 1.2war


I'd be quite content with the majority of those deals.

Especially since Price isn't an obese alcoholic like CC.
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christaylor - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 02:37 PM EST (#315034) #
"Paying stupid money for Price or any pitcher is a bad idea."

I agree with this and it was in this case that Beeston's 5 year policy made sense. After Lackey's "one year minimum, if one year was missed" deal, I was hoping to see more of the same.

It may be not what the pundits are predicting, but a trade/signing to upgrade the offense might be a good idea. All of 1B/LF/CF/2B could be bumped (although it'd be making bets on who can't replicate their 2015 or step up for 2016). Sure, the offense was scary good in 2015 but why not exploit the effects of "chaining" even further? If Estrada accepts (signs a multi-year deal with the Jays) add one cheap vet, a couple of pen arms, and hope Osuna/Sanchez/Hutch step up.

That said, I think Price is about a safe a bet as we've seen on the pitching market in a long time.
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Lylemcr - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 02:41 PM EST (#315035) #
I would be very surprised if Price is not a Cub soon.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 02:51 PM EST (#315036) #
Did anyone learn anything from Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, etc?

Paying stupid money for Price or any pitcher is a bad idea.

Dunno about this King Ryan.  Greenfrog already noted Greinke.  Kershaw's contract, the biggest ever for a pitcher, is for 7 years, $215 million and according to Fangraphs value stat, he's already been worth 127.4 million!  what do you want to bet he's worth more than $88 million over the next five years?

2nd biggest contract is Scherzer at 7x30 (the same number people are predicting for Price).  He was worth 51.2 million in his first of the 7 years.  Again, odds that he's worth $159 million over the next six years?  Steamer's predicting 5.2 WAR for him next year, the same total he earned in 2014 when the value stat pegged him for 39.5 million in value.  And that's without factoring in the inflating costs of a win. 

Lets look at your examples.  Verlander's is the third richest pitcher contract,  7 years and 180 million.  Clearly he's been down relative to his early career peak the past two seasons, but over the first three years of the deal he's still at 80.5 million in value.  Steamer is predicting him to be worth a bit less (0.3 WAR) than this year's 22.6 million in value.  If one WAR costs 7 million, his value would be 20.5   Let's say, barring catastropic injury (a real possibility with any pitcher) that his value decreases 10% per year (a rough guess)  for the next three of his deal, and ignoring inflation of the cost of a win, his value is 18.45, 16.6, 14.94.

That puts him conservatively at $150 million for the 7 years.  Not great value, but his performance dip was unexpected and represents the negative end of the possible outcomes at the time the deal was signed (again, barring catastrophic injury).  Certainly, not a crippling deal.

Tim Lincecum signed two 2 year deals, at the end of his arb and his first years of FA.  75.5 million total, Fangraphs has him at 21.1 million in value over that time.  Lincecum represents the worst value here, but 2 two year contracts are hardly crippling.  Im not sure why San Fran went back to the well with the guy (the second contract was worth almost nothing to the team), but all those WS flags mean they are doing something right. 

I don't claim to be a stats guy so I'm sure my methodology sucks - to me this is just a fun thought experiment, but my conclusion is that long term contracts are inherently risky, and some of them are worth the risk, in particular for teams that have a legit chance to contend - like the Dodgers, Giants, and, uhh, us.  I actually think that absolute rules - no five year contracts, no 'stupid' money for pitchers - are the 'riskier' stance than investing long term in the RIGHT player. 

Price at 7x30 seems to me to be the best way we could spend our money right now. 
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Dave Till - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 03:13 PM EST (#315037) #

Paying stupid money for Price or any pitcher is a bad idea.

I see the point being made here, but the goal is not to maximize wins per dollar - the goal (within reason) is to maximize wins. Signing a top-tier 30-year-old pitcher probably means that you're going to throw tens of millions of dollars down the toilet, but it also means that you have an increased chance of winning while he is still effective. If you make the prudent financial choice of not throwing $200 million at a pitcher, you are at a competitive disadvantage against teams that are willing to do this.

Which leads me to wonder: how much "dead money" should a team be willing to take on? If the goal is to maximize revenue for shareholders, the answer, ideally, is zero. From a diehard fan's perspective, the answer is "as much as possible", but it's not our money, is it? So I dunno, I guess.

I would be very surprised if Price is not a Cub soon.

The most likely outcomes, in no particular order:

  • The Cubs open their wallets.
  • The Dodgers open their wallets, after having lost Greinke. (There are rumours that the Jays are pursuing Greinke, by the way.)
  • The Jays decide to go for it and resign Price.
  • The Yankees or the Red Sox decide "to heck with it" and outbid everybody, seeing as how they need pitching and have lots of cash. (If this were 2000, Price would be a Yankee for sure.)
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uglyone - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 03:23 PM EST (#315038) #
"Which leads me to wonder: how much "dead money" should a team be willing to take on?"

the other question would be WHEN they should be willing to take it on. i.e. if they have a contending core now whose contracts will all be expiring together ina few years, should they be willing to take on likely dead money in those post-window years to imrpove their chances in that window?
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ayjackson - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 03:55 PM EST (#315039) #
Yes. There's definitely a time to be efficient and a time to be inefficient with performance per dollar of payroll. They should have more tolerance for inefficiency now while Bautista, Tulo, Edwin, Donaldson, and Martin are still among the game's elite.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 04:53 PM EST (#315040) #
If this were 2000, Price would be a Yankee for sure.

Wait, it isn't Y2K anymore?.  Time flies when you're having fun. 

It is definitely a year when a $150-$160 million payroll can easily be justified.  Ownership's payroll decisions affect a GM's position.  With a payroll of $140 million, the calculus on putting out $30 million a year for any one player is a little different.  It may not leave enough wiggle room for other needs.  One way to address that is through back-end loading, but there are important issues with that, not the least of which is that the player may not agree to it. 
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John Northey - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 05:03 PM EST (#315041) #
Now there is a payroll busting idea - sign Greinke & Price and watch the other teams in the AL East cry.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 06:14 PM EST (#315042) #
Why Signing two Top Pitchers is an absolute must?

Marcus Stroman is an exceptional Starter. I fully believe Marcus Stroman to be a Stud #1 Starter-type. Chances of being able to pitch 200.0 or more innings in the Regular Season, then another pressure-packed 35.0 or more Playoff innings is remote to nonexistent. He pitched 166.2 innings in 2014, but just 34.2 innings in 2015. Someone very good has to be available to take his place. If everything has been done right from Spring Training onward, Aaron Sanchez could come out of the Bullpen at some point to take over. You cannot have enough Front-Line Starters, more is always good.

R.A. Dickey is at his best a good Mid-Rotation Starter, easily capable of being able to pitch 200.0 or more innings in the Regular Season and probably even more in Postseason play easily. Being a good Knuckleball Pitcher has advantages that should keep him with the Jays all Season long. This might also make him a valuable Trade asset for a Trade Deadline move.

Drew Hutchison is bizarre. He can pitch so very, very good and then immediately pitch so very, very bad. He has good stuff, that's readily apparent. He has good control and consistency and that's readily apparent. Even with that, he's still not a front-line Starter. He's not a power pitcher and he doesn't have a power arm. He still thinks he is and has. And that's where problems arise. Until he understands what he must do, he's not someone you can depend on.

These Starters are not enough without Top Help, to get the Jays back to the Postseason. Anything less is just repeating April - June in 2015. Despite wishes or opinions to the contrary, less than the best is not good enough. And ignoring the Bullpen is always a big mistake.
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jensan - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 07:04 PM EST (#315044) #
Estrada 3/36 brings the MLB Payroll to the 22 players and 102.5 MM , the additional amount is $114.5 and the need for 1 more SP , will it be Chen, Leake or Kazmir brings us to $130 MM.
IF Price or Grienke the payroll would be 144.5 MMwith 24 Players taken care .

To reduce that number would be the trading of Revere to the Padres for Norris and than the payroll would be back to $140 MM with one position to fill on the 25 MLB PAYROLL
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scottt - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 07:47 PM EST (#315047) #
They need a pitcher that can start twice in a best of 5 series if Stroman has to start the wild card game.
They went 5-6 in post-season with Price, Stroman, Estrada and Dickie.
Pretty hard to improve on that starting lineup next year. (The fifth guy doesn't matter in the playoffs.)

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Rich - Wednesday, November 11 2015 @ 09:09 PM EST (#315049) #

I see the point being made here, but the goal is not to maximize wins per dollar - the goal (within reason) is to maximize wins. Signing a top-tier 30-year-old pitcher probably means that you're going to throw tens of millions of dollars down the toilet, but it also means that you have an increased chance of winning while he is still effective. If you make the prudent financial choice of not throwing $200 million at a pitcher, you are at a competitive disadvantage against teams that are willing to do this.

Which leads me to wonder: how much "dead money" should a team be willing to take on? If the goal is to maximize revenue for shareholders, the answer, ideally, is zero. From a diehard fan's perspective, the answer is "as much as possible", but it's not our money, is it? So I dunno, I guess.

Dave Till, you have hit the nail on the head.  This is exactly why I think Price is worth a Scherzer deal.  He won't be worth the last 2 or 3 years of the contract but looking at where the team is in the success cycle its window is right now.  There are no guarantees Price wins you a championship but he does give you the best shot and that's why you have to (over)pay him in my book.  I don't think the Giants would trade any of their titles for some of Lincecum's cash...does anyone?

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Mylegacy - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 12:17 AM EST (#315051) #
We can win the division with OK pitching - perhaps even: Stroman, New Guy Mid-Rotation type, Dickey, The Spring Training Winner between Osuna/Sanchez and Hutchison.

However, to win in the post season (most often) you need at least three top guys - all Ace's or Almost Aces.

To be the expected winner of the play-offs we need: Stroman, one of Price/Estrada and one of Grienke?/GreinkeLite, Winner of Osuna/Sanchez and Dickey/Hutchison.

IF Estrada signs we'd need one more of a Price/Grienke/nearPorG type guy. We could trade Dickey (12 million) and Thole (2 million?) to help make the numbers work (that idea has been floated earlier in the thread). I think it's a 50/50 shot at this time - lots of reasons Marco could stay were he's known best and has had his most success. IF - Estrada sign I think most free agents out there would realize how close we'd be to being serious contenders in the Marathon (the 162 game season) AND in the Sprint (Play-Offs).

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Michael - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 06:16 AM EST (#315052) #
Let's say you were trying to make a fair 1-year contract for Price and a similar 1-year contract for Grienke. How high would you be willing to go? Is $40 or $45 M for Price for 1 year a fair price? For Grienke is it $35 or $40 M? It isn't that likely a player would take that, since it adds a lot of risk to them, but if they could stay healthy and effective, I think they'd make a lot more in 1-year contracts (especially if the contract specified not alloweing a QO to the player at year end, and no-trade during the year).

Obviously I don't know what the budget is for the Jays, but it seems like they are in prime competing range in 2016 with 2017 a bit more of a mystery (shouldn't be horrible then, but may or may not be in a clear "win now" window), so thinking about going extra dollars but short if some pitcher is willing to roll the dice would be good. And a pitcher might like to pitch in Toronto because they don't have to face this offense, the defense should be pretty strong, and they can rack up the W.

Almost certainly dreaming, but if you were price and you could choose 7x30 or 1xD what value of D would you want (remembering Price has already earned $54M on his career, so even if disaster happens and he's done after this year, he's not in the poor house).
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Dave Till - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 06:44 AM EST (#315053) #

There are no guarantees Price wins you a championship but he does give you the best shot and that's why you have to (over)pay him in my book. I don't think the Giants would trade any of their titles for some of Lincecum's cash...does anyone?

More thoughts on this - let me try to look at it from Rogers' perspective first, strictly from a financial standpoint.

From a purely business perspective: Rogers is a public company with investors and shareholders, and it is the duty of their management to maximize return on investment. If they spend too much on baseball players, their shareholders might revolt.

Given this, whether the Jays sign Price or Greinke or whoever might depend on whether their calculations indicate that they could make more money (on ticket sales, merchandise sales, and ad revenue from broadcasts) if they spent more on players. It can't have gone unnoticed that the Jays sold out every game at Ted's Shed during the last month of the season.

The trickier question is whether Rogers, or any baseball owner, has a civic responsibility to produce the best team they can for the place in which they live. Baseball means a lot to a lot of people - consider that, during the seventh inning of game 5 of the ALDS, the stadium came close to spawning a riot. A question that baseball has not successfully sorted out is this: to what extent is it a business like other businesses, and to what extent is it something else?

The financial side of things has to be considered - there aren't many benevolent billionaires out there willing to shoulder tens of millions of dollars in losses annually as a kind of civic duty. (And those few that do exist tend to want to interfere with their general managers. Think George Steinbrenner, for example.) But it's not just about return on investment. Jeffrey Loria has been pretty good at maximizing his profits in Miami, but his model is no way to run a baseball team. In Toronto, MLSE has been accused of catering to the interests of their shareholders without paying enough attention to the quality of the sports teams that they own (which may be, for a while, why the Leafs, Raptors, and Toronto FC were all awful).

Anyway, that's more than enough from me. :-)

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Mike Green - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 08:39 AM EST (#315054) #
Aaron Hicks for JR Murphy?  Really?  The Yankees have Gary Sanchez waiting to take Murphy's place and now have a decent (at least) young outfielder.  They gave up very, very little.
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finch - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 09:54 AM EST (#315056) #
If this was fantasy football and Hicks was traded for Murphy, the league would veto the trade and question the integrity of the owner that traded Hicks away.

Shocking trade to say the least. Great trade for the Yankees.
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85bluejay - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 09:58 AM EST (#315057) #
With so many teams looking for a competent SS, I hope the Jays put Ryan Goins on the market - he's an attractive trade chip coming off his 2nd half performance.
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finch - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:40 AM EST (#315059) #
Goins is far too valuable to the team, defensively, to trade at this point. He is still pre arbitration so his value to the Jays is even more so. IF you can replace his defense, then trade him but if you can't, he's too valuable on the bench. Can't expect Tulo and Travis to stay healthy all year.

The Braves were asking the Braves for de Grom or Harvey for Andrelton Simmons so you would hope the Jays could get something of value for Goins if they decide to move him.
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ayjackson - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:50 AM EST (#315061) #
Maybe we should send Tulo to the Mets for Harvey or Degrom.
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finch - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:50 AM EST (#315062) #
Or Syndergaard...
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uglyone - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:54 AM EST (#315063) #
i haven't looked to closely but my casual impression is that Hicks was a bust and Murphy one of the better young catchers in baseball last year?
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uglyone - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:55 AM EST (#315064) #
the mets do need bats in a big way.
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uglyone - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:56 AM EST (#315065) #
I agree with potentally selling high on goins. If anyone is willing to value him even close to as a starting SS then I say jump all over that.
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Mike Green - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 11:14 AM EST (#315066) #
Hicks was a bust until last year. He made swing adjustments and  cut his K rate substantially while increasing his power substantially.  In 2014, he had 225 PAs and hit one home run which traveled 354 feet.  In 2015 he had 390 PAs and hit eleven home runs with an average distance of 407 feet.  He is moving from Minnesota to New York.  He will be 27 in February.  He was an underperforming first round pick who seem to take an important step at age 26.  If there was a player that I wanted to bet on taking another leap forward, Hicks would be near the top of my list of choices. He is a capable defensive centerfielder and would probably be excellent in the corners.  

At this point, Hicks backs up Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran and A-Rod (you can DH Beltran when A-Rod is out of the lineup).  He's an even better version of Chris Young and with all kinds of possibility for the future. 

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jerjapan - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 11:50 AM EST (#315067) #
Goins value to the team as a backup is precisely why you might trade him to a team that thinks he could start, although I don't necessarily see a fit.  Plenty of solid defensive utility SS types available as FAs, we could bring back Pennington if we did trade him.   Steamer is predicting nearly 1100 ABs between Travis and Tulo, but that seems high to me - Tulo is just plain injury-prone, and Travis has had a couple of big injuries over his short pro career. 

But trading Goins or Pillar (likely our most valuable - and movable - assets) is a last resort for me - I'd love to sign 2 impact pitchers - at least one mid rotation or better starter, perhaps an elite reliever if the price is right.  Did anyone see this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-extra-value-of-having-an-elite-reliever/

Jeff Sullivan speculates that WAR undervalues the contributions an elite reliever makes to a team.  Is this the year to trade for a Chapman or a Kimbrel perhaps? 

And while I don't really want to make this move, nor do I see it happening, Tulo to the Mets is an obvious fantasy type move. 
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SK in NJ - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 12:10 PM EST (#315068) #
I don't think trading Pillar makes any sense. He's making the near minimum for another two seasons, and is projected to be a 2.7 WAR player next season. Maybe you move him when he starts to get expensive and/or his defense starts to slip, but he provides a ton of excessive value right now and he's not the type of player who is generally overvalued on the trade market (defense first).

Goins is another story. I think someone like Barney could replace him adequately off the bench, and if another team views Goins as a starting SS, then maybe you can get more value in return for him than he would realistically give on the field. I don't mind holding on to Goins either since Tulo and Travis will probably miss time here and there next season, but if another team is willing to give up a quality piece for him, then he should definitely be a trade chip.
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uglyone - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 12:13 PM EST (#315069) #
you made me look, Mike.

Seems like Hicks has had no trouble hitting lefties, but nothing doing against righties.

chris young replacement looks about right.
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uglyone - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 12:18 PM EST (#315070) #
I wouldn't think of moving Pillar yet, but if both Pompey and Alford look good next year he starts to look like a pretty good trade asset. then again, by the next year Bautista will likely be out of the OF one way or another, which might mean we don't want to move any of them.
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Glevin - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 12:24 PM EST (#315071) #
I don't think Goins is going to get you much. He's 27, has almost 750 career PAs in the majors and has an OPS+ of 70. His recent minor league track record is not particularly impressive either. He had one great month in August but then reverted to type in September and in the post-season so it's hard to put much stock into one great month in a sea of offensive futility. He's very useful to the Jays because of his ability to play multiple positions with great defense, but I don't see any teams treating him more than a backup. You could maybe get a middle innings kind of guy but then you just create a hole at backup INF for yourself.
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Mike Green - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 12:27 PM EST (#315072) #
Definitely, Hicks' adjustments worked better against lefties.  He did however drive the ball against RHPs for the first time.  You can watch the homers he hit against RHPs via HitTracker.org.  They weren't cheap and he hit none in Yankee.  Target Field is a hard place for LH hitter to hit the ball out; Yankee Stadium, of course is the opposite.

Brett Gardner had much less power than Hicks has when he was Hicks' age, and we know what happened to him.  I see Hicks as the kind of player who will be hitting .280 with 25 homers and 60 walks, while playing good defence, in a couple of years (and maybe next year, if someone gets hurt).

The Twins, of course, moved Hicks because of Buxton.  They had a similar situation a long time ago with Pierzynski/Mauer and made out like bandits in a deal with San Francisco.  Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

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Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 01:23 PM EST (#315074) #
The Jays need a Starter that will always stop a losing streak. The Jays need a Starter that will always pitch 7.0+ innings per game and 200.0+ innings per season. The Jays need a Starter that will always keeps his team in the game and will always keep the game in hand. Now that the Jays finally have a team they need an ACE! At least one is mandatory, but more would be great. They had one once again, but are/might be letting him go. More fool them.

Marcus Stroman might be that person and I repeat might. He's close and might get there or might not. But he's not enough. R.A. Dickey is not and never will be that kind of pitcher. Sometimes he's that kind of pitcher, but usually he's not. He's not enough, nor is he good enough. Drew Hutchison right now is messed up and not dependable enough to even be a 6th Starter, let alone better. I think his problems are mental, he needs to figure out who he is. Drew can be a very good Starter if he puts it together. But even then he'll never be good enough.

Roy Halladay was very special and almost irreplaceable. In-house they have yet to equal his value and may or may not do it. But then who said that just having one was enough. More fool you. David Price was, for the short time he was here, exactly what the Jays needed. From the time the Jays got him, they won and they won and they won. Last year before the Magic happened, the Jays were barely average. If that repeats this year, they don't have the prospects to spare to make needed acquisitions. That's when Bautista, Encarnacion, Dickey and everyone else with an expiring contract will be moved.
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John Northey - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 03:30 PM EST (#315075) #
So lets go sign God then. Not available? Guess a guy who will always stop losing streaks isn't available then.

I know what you mean Richard, more making a point. This team has killer offence and an ace lands under what the team needs in the post-season more than the regular. I'd like Price or Greinke but don't see either as likely.

A good question might be would the Jays be better off non-tendering Saunders and trading Revere while opening the wallets for Alex Gordon (or Yoenis Céspedes) instead? That would make the outfield that much stronger defensively while adding yet another good bat to the lineup and then Pompey could be in AAA ready to be called up if needed (getting ready for 2016 should Bautista leave or be moved to 1B/DH) while Carrera is the 4th OF. Hitters are more predictable and a stronger defense makes every pitcher better.

Also remember, with Halladay and early Dave Stieb the Jays had the super-Ace but was at best in the 80's for wins. It takes more than an ace to win.
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Mike Green - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 03:47 PM EST (#315076) #
In the beginning, there was Ace.  On the first day, he created the earth, the mountain and the stars, the ballparks, the bleachers and the fans.  On the second day, he rested.  On the third day, his throw day, he created the umpires.  On the fourth day, he rested.  On the fifth day, he created the bats, the balls, the gloves and the players.  On the sixth day, he roared "Play Ball".  On the seventh day, he watched the first game and complained about the umpire's calls. 
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 04:49 PM EST (#315078) #
Dave Stieb got to the Postseason with Toronto, but Roy Halladay didn't.

Dave Stieb's last Stud/Ace year was 1990 at age 32. After that he faded badly and was just a ghost of himself in subsequent years. He pitched in the Postseason in 1985 (lost ALCS to KC in 7 games) and 1989 (lost ALCS to Oakland in 5 games) with unremarkable results. (I still think a bad Umpire call cost Toronto a World Series berth in 1985.) I firmly believe his teams weren't good enough to get it done.

Roy Halladay's last Stud/Ace year was 2011 (with Philadelphia) at age 34. Back issues had him out of the game within the next two years. He pitched in the Postseason in 2010 (won ALDS from Cincinnati in 3 games and lost ALCS to San Francisco in 6 games) and 2011 lost ALDS to St. Louis in 5 games) with dominant results. I firmly believe none of his teams were good enough.

With the additions made in the 2014/15 offseason followed by the 2015 Trade Deadline deals, this current team got to the Postseason (won ALDS from Texas in 5 games and lost ALCS to KC in 6 games). With the returns of Devon Travis and Michael Saunders to the team, the Offense and Defense of this team are as good as or better than last year's team. Their greatest needs are Pitching, two or three Starters and two Relievers.
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 05:45 PM EST (#315079) #
An interesting thought occurred. If a trade for a Starter is required, who gets traded? Who highlights the package and who makes up the package? When A.A. acquired David Price he let the other guy (GM) have his choice of any prospect to headline that trade package. Which prospect should headline a package for a Young, Stud Starter and who should get traded? This is a trade you must make. Any ideas?
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christaylor - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 06:28 PM EST (#315081) #
I don't think anyone should be surprised if this off season turns out like 13-14.That is to say, underwhelming (if that's a word). Hoping on Hutch, Osuna, or Sanchez might not be the preferred tack for fans but for Rogers? Seems consistent with their past behavior as an owner.
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Parker - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 06:46 PM EST (#315083) #
If Estrada does somehow accept, he won't be the first: Ken Rosenthal tweets that Colby Rasmus has become the first player in MLB history to accept his qualifying offer.
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jerjapan - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 06:56 PM EST (#315086) #
That's the right move by Rasmus - I was surprised Houston qualified him.  He was a negative defensively last year and only had the 25 HR counting stat in his favour.  154 Ks in 432 ABs is nuts. 



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Parker - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 07:27 PM EST (#315090) #
That's the right move by Rasmus - I was surprised Houston qualified him. He was a negative defensively last year and only had the 25 HR counting stat in his favour. 154 Ks in 432 ABs is nuts.

Houston LOVES their three true outcomes guys, though...

Rasmus has some outfield versatility (even if it looks like he might not be suited for a full-time CF job anymore) and somehow, he's actually just hitting his prime years. Houston takes on no long-term risk, but they get some hedging against a Marisnick implosion and maybe protection for Domingo Santana against tough righties. I like this outcome for Houston, actually.
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jerjapan - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 07:46 PM EST (#315091) #
Yeah, what's up with that?  Is it a love of the three true outcomes or just a sense that as a transitioning team they could get those sorts of players on the cheap? 

My guess is that they went for the Evan Gattis / Chris Carter types because they could be had on the cheap but the power potential offered some real upside while they waited on the prospects to make the bigs.  McCullers and Correa were great quickly and suddenly they were a contender a year or two early. 

But that said, I agree Parker- it's an overpay by a few million for Rasmus, but an overpay that makes sense given the team and their payroll, and it gave them a chance at the comp pick if he turned it down. 

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jensan - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 07:49 PM EST (#315092) #
PILLAR
His Defense , his base running and his improving patience at the plate. Send him + Hendricks to Seattle or Cleveland for SP for Walker, Paxton + Smith or Salazar.

Still believe you should trade Colabello + Jiminez for the Padres Norris.

If not the Pillar trade than either :

Sign Estrada +Price /Grienke/Cueto or after signing Estrada go low with J A Happ or Anderson combined with Leake
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 08:11 PM EST (#315093) #
I have been shocked by the people who refuse the Qualifying Offer and take less to much less money per year over term. If I'm Estrada, I take the Q.O., bank $15.8 MM and expect my Agent to do his best the following year.
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ISLAND BOY - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 08:35 PM EST (#315094) #
If I was a pitcher, I'd rather go for a multi-year deal rather than risk blowing out my arm during that one year deal. Then again, there's been a few pitchers left twisting in the wind come spring training because teams figure they aren't worth losing a draft pick over.
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scottt - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 08:41 PM EST (#315095) #
It depends how much more you make on the multi-year deal.

If your agent is Scott Boras you will decline the QO. Boras doesn't mind screwing up a guy or two on principle.

I don't see soft tossing Estrada as a huge arm blowing risk.

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scottt - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 08:48 PM EST (#315096) #
Some people will tell you that QOs exist to devaluate player salaries.
I don't see how Rasmus loses by being overpayed one year.

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Cracka - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 08:52 PM EST (#315097) #
Andrelton Simmons traded to the Angels for Erick Aybar and TWO of their top pitching prospects (Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis). Simmons has a big long-term contract (5 years, 53 million), so the Angels are paying a big price for a elite defensive shortstop who hits like Ryan Goins (each had an OPS+ of 86).

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jensan - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 09:13 PM EST (#315098) #
Could we get one top pitching prospect for our 86+ MLB player SS/2B
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melondough - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 09:13 PM EST (#315099) #
Any talk of trading Pillar is just silly. Makes me sick to read such talk. He helps jays win, and let's face it we pay our money to also be entertained.

How many players would you pay to watch day in day out? Plus it appears he has a good chance to continue getting better still. We have something great and you want to trade it? Cmon really?
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 09:21 PM EST (#315100) #
Ryan Goins has a good few hitting weeks in his career and he's compared with one of the best Shortstops in the business? That's bizarre.
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jerjapan - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 09:47 PM EST (#315101) #
Melondough, for one thing, not one poster on this thread WANTS to trade Pillar.  I brought it up in the context of the assets that we have for trade.  Personally, as I've have consistently said, I want us to sign free agents to fill the holes in the starting rotation.  Pillar was by far my favourite player to watch this year, and I've been following him since he was overachieving in A ball. 

you might not like it, but it's a lot less silly than the comments suggesting we should trade Smoak or Revere for an impact player - a reliever perhaps.  a quality starter?  no chance.  You want talent via trade, you give up talent.  Pillar happens to play the same position as our most advanced position prospect, and thus represents a surplus.   

NOT considering a Pillar trade is silly.

Who would you like to trade?  Bo Schultz and Chad Jenkins for a starter? 



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Cracka - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 09:49 PM EST (#315102) #
.250 / .318 / .354, 25 XBH, 5 HR, 45 RBI, 86 OPS+, 1.5 oWAR.
vs.
.265 / .321 / .338, 29 XBH, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 86 OPS+, 1.2 oWAR.

Fair comparison? Simmons had a 3.5 dWAR vs. Goins 1.8... so clearly the better defender, and has done it longer, and is younger... He also costs about $9 million more a season.

My point is - there's not that big of gap between Goins and Simmons, and certainly not $9 million a season worth.
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scottt - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:21 PM EST (#315104) #
Andrelton Simmons traded to the Angels for Erick Aybar and TWO of their top pitching prospects

Not the time to trade for a prospect unless he's MLB ready.
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Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:26 PM EST (#315105) #
Blue Jays and Estrada - two years and $24.0 MM - $29.0 MM?
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jensan - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:29 PM EST (#315106) #
plus 3rd option year with a few million buyout part of 2/24-29 offer. joel Sherman believes it will happen.

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SK in NJ - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 10:33 PM EST (#315107) #
Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 32m32 minutes ago
Nothing finalized, but lots of buzz #Bluejays, Estrada nearing 2-yr deal in $24M-$29M range. Would mean not taking $15.8M qualifying offer

Two years is certainly low risk from the Jays standpoint. Better than three years. Let's see where the final number is, if this happens at all.

Shapiro and LaCava are very stat oriented, so if they feel comfortable giving him 2 years, then they must feel confident that he can maintain his FIP busting ways from 2015. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I wasn't expecting them to sign Estrada, but two years would definitely mitigate the risk of him declining.

Still not confirmed as of yet, though.
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uglyone - Thursday, November 12 2015 @ 11:33 PM EST (#315108) #
quite a bit of difference between 24 and 29.

hopefully it's only 2yrs.
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Glevin - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 06:59 AM EST (#315109) #
"Fair comparison? Simmons had a 3.5 dWAR vs. Goins 1.8... so clearly the better defender, and has done it longer, and is younger... He also costs about $9 million more a season.

My point is - there's not that big of gap between Goins and Simmons, and certainly not $9 million a season worth."

There is a huge difference between them. In 2015 WAR, Goins is sandwiched between Eduardo Escobar and Freddy Galvis as the #21 SS. Simmons was the #6 shortstop in between Correa and Gregorios and he's 2 years younger with a better track record. If you want to think about how much other teams would give up for Goins, think about how much you would be willing to give up for guys like Freddy Galvis and Nick Ahmed. Not a hell of a lot.
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85bluejay - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 07:49 AM EST (#315110) #
more than 2/24 & the jays would probably be better off if Estrada took the QO.

I have no problem if the Jays listened and moved any player including Pillar - IMO, there are no untouchables.
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Cynicalguy - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 08:08 AM EST (#315111) #
The 29M for Estrada likely contains a buyout for a 3rd year, total figure could be lower. It might be a bit of an overpay, but if he has another stellar year, cost for 2017 could end up being much higher if he took the QO and is a free agent again...deal could turn into a bargain in 2017 and 2018, if this year's performance was for real.
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SK in NJ - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 08:52 AM EST (#315112) #
With so many SP's attached to qualifying offers this winter, Estrada likely realizes that his best chance to get a deal longer than one year is with the Jays. He's not the type of pitcher who can take a one year deal and expect to hit the market again next winter as the same perceived commodity that he is now. It would be a huge risk for him.

Aside from the money, it comes down to what the Jays feel they have with Estrada. If he's a pitcher that they feel can beat his FIP (ala Chris Young), then it might be a reasonable gamble to take since he's not attached to any draft compensation being their own free agent. However, if he regresses to his FIP/projection, then it's an overpay. The only good part would be that it's a two year deal and not anything longer than that.
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Dave Till - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:02 AM EST (#315113) #
Estrada's 2015 statistics are a collision between old statistical analysis and new. By traditional metrics, he had an outstanding year: he was fifth in the American League in ERA, and had the lowest hits per innings pitched ratio in the league (which I didn't know). But, according to Baseball Reference, his FIP was a rather ordinary 4.40, and his BABIP was a startlingly low and possibly lucky .217.

I'm willing to believe that at least some of the improvement was real, thanks to that wondrous changeup. And two years at $29 million is not a huge risk, given what pitchers are going for these days. Especially if Estrada actually wants to pitch in Toronto. Many free agent pitchers will look at Toronto's homer-friendly ballpark and the lineups of the Jays' AL East opposition and say "no thanks".

If Estrada does sign, though, the big question is this: would Navarro be willing to return to resume his 2015 role, or can he land a starter's job somewhere else?
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jerjapan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:08 AM EST (#315114) #
There is a huge difference between them. In 2015 WAR, Goins is sandwiched between Eduardo Escobar and Freddy Galvis as the #21 SS.

Well, WAR is a counting stat and Goins wasn't an everyday player all year, unlike Galvis, but agreed - Simmons is still an elite SS with a proven track record.

I do think there is some value in the comparison though - Goins is a legit trade asset. 

I like the new thus far on Estrada. 
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uglyone - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:20 AM EST (#315115) #
a 4.40fip isn't ordinary, it's awful.

the thing to remember, though, is that his fip was an outlier from normal, too.

probably best to pay him for his career average as an SP - 3.93era, 4.27fip, 4.12xfip.

i.e. mediocre SP stuff

except without any consistenncy or durability in his track record.

2x$12 isn't awful, though it's not where i'd spend money.
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SK in NJ - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:28 AM EST (#315116) #
Looking like 2/26 per Joel Sherman. That's close enough to the QO offer that I feel the Jays should have just let Estrada accept it instead of tacking on an extra year. Two years is a relatively safe risk, as even if he bombs it won't be a long-term albatross, but the difference between $13m and $15.8m in 2016 is so tiny (you can't even get an established middle reliever for that difference) that I would have probably waited to see if Estrada bit on the QO rather than give him the guaranteed 2nd year.

It's better than 3/33 or 3/36, at least.
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jerjapan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:48 AM EST (#315117) #
So the qualifying offer plus a second year at 10 million?  That works for me, and is cheaper than I predicted.  Thumbs up Shapiro if this is true.

I love what the Braves are doing - John Hart has rebuilt that farm system fast, and has done a good job adding talent at the expense of taking on bad contracts.  Swisher and Bourn come off the books after 2016 leaving Atlanta with a ton of money, several key pieces under contract and a wave of talent on the way.

But the Angels?  I love Simmons, but they are paying CJ Wilson, Jered Weaver and Albert Pujols nearly 66 million next year, have holes all over the roster and just made a bottom 5 farm system worse. 

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85bluejay - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 11:25 AM EST (#315118) #
For a guy whose strikeout rate has declined and walk rate has increased 4 straight years, Estrada did well - I would have preferred the jays let him take the QO or use that money as part of a 4 year offer to a pitcher with a better track record.
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Lylemcr - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 11:27 AM EST (#315119) #
Getting the Angels top pitching prospects is not something to get too excited.

Offensively, Simmons seems to be going the wrong way though, but you can't underestimate the value of a good defensive shortstop. Which makes me think about how Goins does have more value than I think. (Not top pitching prospects value, but value).



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uglyone - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 12:10 PM EST (#315120) #
i don't think the goins simmons comp holds at all.

but it does show that defense still sells.
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jerjapan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 12:10 PM EST (#315121) #
Getting the Angels top pitching prospects is not something to get too excited.

Even the weak farm systems have talent at the top of their prospect lists - Sickels had Newcombe as the 32nd best prospect in the game mid season - so ahead of guys like Pompey and Hoffman.  A projectable lefty with a big fastball - looks like a fast-moving mid rotation starter to me, a number 2 if he gets the walks down. 

He's got Ellis as a B- / C+ due to control issues.

That said, Sickels and others do feel the return was light for Simmons - is D still getting undervalued on the trade market?
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uglyone - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 12:12 PM EST (#315122) #
2x$13 is palatable i guess.

but now we're up close to $120m and somehow i don't feel any better about our rotation than i did yesterday.
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Parker - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 12:17 PM EST (#315123) #
Getting the Angels top pitching prospects is not something to get too excited.

Yeah, it's probably safe to dismiss prospects from the system that produces bums like Mike Trout. ;)
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Glevin - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 12:24 PM EST (#315124) #
"Well, WAR is a counting stat and Goins wasn't an everyday player all year, unlike Galvis, but agreed - Simmons is still an elite SS with a proven track record.

I do think there is some value in the comparison though - Goins is a legit trade asset. "

I strongly disagree. If you don't like the Galvez comparison, use Nick Ahmed. Almost the same WAR over the past three seasons and almost the same last year. Ahmed has 70 fewer games so has actually produced more value, and he's 2 years younger let's pretend he isn't better and younger. What would you give up for Nick Ahmed? Which Jays prospect package would you be willing to trade for him? A top-10 prospect? Top-20?
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Mylegacy - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 12:27 PM EST (#315125) #
Estrada's pitching reminds me of Hentgen's - in that - both dare to pitch in the top of the strike zone. Marco says that these days most pitchers pitch to the low corners and because of that most batters are changing their swings to more proficiently cover down low. He says this gives him an edge pitching up - but up with very good control and command. Combined with his masterful changeup, he says this is why his results are so good.

It also explains why his flyball rate is up too. More pitches up - more flyballs. To me, pitching up like he does, is dancing with the devil. So far he seems to have the devil's number. I suspect that may well continue and I see him as a leading contender to win next year's "Dancing with the Stars" contest.

By signing Estrada now the Jay's will know exactly where they are payroll wise for the rest of the off season and will be well positioned to make their next off season moves. I'm a big fan of this move and of Estrada.

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Dave Till - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 01:07 PM EST (#315126) #

Estrada's pitching reminds me of Hentgen's - in that - both dare to pitch in the top of the strike zone. Marco says that these days most pitchers pitch to the low corners and because of that most batters are changing their swings to more proficiently cover down low.

I hadn't thought of that until you mentioned it, but your post brings back memories of Hentgen challenging hitters with high fastballs. He had no fear out there.

What also helps, I think, is that umpires are now calling high strikes again (as they did during Hentgen's time, I think). For a while there, I seem to recall, umps were calling everything above the belt a ball, and were compensating by calling a wider strike zone.

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Richard S.S. - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 01:27 PM EST (#315128) #
Someone said the difference between the Qualifying Offer and the yearly amount in the projected agreement isn't enough savings to get a Reliever. I beg to differ. It may not be enough now to acquire a Reliever now, it will be enough at the July Trade Deadline. Every Million saved for then lets $3.0 MM be acquired then.

Every penny/million saved now means decisions are easier later. LaCava has talked about acquiring three Starters. With at least one or two Relievers needed as well, I suspect he has as much as he needs to do what he needs to do. I think the only question will be who he signs, not how much he spends.
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bpoz - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 01:54 PM EST (#315129) #
The 2016 Jays are in position to be good depending on 1 or 2 decent moves made. Getting Estrada could be enough for a decent rotation to start the year. Dickey, Estrada, Hutch, Stroman and Sanchez. That leaves Osuna & Cecil to make a strong pen. Injuries to any of those 7 pitchers would create a hole because their replacement at the moment is nobody remotely equal. So we need depth and 1 more reasonably reliable pitcher. The addition just needs to be a JA Happ or a M Estrada 2014 version.

Waiver wire, non tender & non QO'd players are a source. The offense is good and a lot of money is saved.

Succeeding at getting an Ace? I have my doubts. By the start if the 1st week of Jan we will know.
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ogator - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 02:17 PM EST (#315130) #
I'm not saying anything original but 5 starters are not nearly enough. They need nine or ten. Things happen and I don't know who they plan to use when those things happen. A few arms left the system last year if I remember correctly.
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uglyone - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 02:40 PM EST (#315131) #
SP depth chart looks something like this:

1. Stroman
2. Estrada
3. Dickey
4. Hutchison
5. Sanchez
6. Osuna
7. Hendriks
8. Jenkins
9. Greene

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China fan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 02:54 PM EST (#315132) #
The solution is simple:  acquire one more free agent (after Estrada) and then leave the 5th slot to a competition among Hutchison, Sanchez, Osuna and Hendriks.  I'm fairly confident that one of those four will step up in spring training and grab the job.  Hutchison himself is a good bounce-back candidate, given his relatively young age and his work ethic and reasonably good stuff, but you don't want to be wholly dependent on it, so you allow him to compete against Sanchez, Osuna and Hendriks.  One of those four should be good enough for the fifth slot.  But it's key for the Jays to acquire two or three good relievers before the season begins, so that they have the flexibility to use Sanchez or Osuna in the rotation if needed. 
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jerjapan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 04:35 PM EST (#315136) #
Fair enough Glevin, Nick Ahmed is a legit question - he's got the pedigree - 1st round pick - and 2 years of age on Goins.  I really do have a hard time grading defense - I watched Goins all year, so I like the guy on D, but Ahmed scores better on Fangraphs. 

I almost feel like Didi Grigorious is the better comp - the Yanks gave up Shane Greene to get him, and we could get an asset just below that level in exchange for Goins.  SS is a position of scarcity right now. 

I'd be happy to give up a Dwight Smith / Mitch Nay type prospect as the lead player in a package for Ahmed. 

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China fan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 04:48 PM EST (#315138) #
The Estrada deal is done, according to SportsNet.   He gets $26-million for two years.   This is a smart move for the Jays, and I've been calling for it for months.  Relatively cheap, relatively low-risk, and it fills a key spot in the rotation. 

For the skeptics, here's yet another FanGraphs analysis saying that Estrada is worth the money:  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-isnt-just-a-one-year-fluke/

Final paragraph of the FanGraphs analysis:
It isn’t the sexiest signing in the world, but it comes with relatively low risk, and could provide great value if Estrada continues to prove that it was actually 2014 and not 2015 that was the fluke, posting an ERA in the mid-to-high 3s like he has throughout his career as a starter. The Blue Jays were going to have to go get someone like this to fill out the middle part of their rotation anyway, so why not go with the guy with whom you’ve already had success in the past? Estrada comes with one of the game’s best changeups, a penchant for soft contact and low BABIPs that are unmatched by nearly any other pitcher today, and a track record that’s better than you might expect.
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melondough - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 04:48 PM EST (#315139) #
As per Jerry Crasnick Twitter, it's official, Estrada 2 years $26M guaranteed. Essentially bought second year for $10M. I like it. Will be interesting to see if their are performance bonuses on top of this. I bet there will be. Also will be interesting to see if it is slightly back-loaded as some have speculated it may be (maybe $13 per year?)
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Mike Green - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 04:52 PM EST (#315140) #
I am fine with this deal.  I guess the club's payroll will determine whether they are in the Price league or in the Iwakuma league for the other starter that they presumably want. 
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China fan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 04:56 PM EST (#315141) #
I'd like to see Navarro brought back too.  He'd be great in the same role as in 2015:  back-up catcher, occasional pinch-hitter, and Estrada specialist.  He's a far better hitter than Thole, so he should be the back-up in 2016.   I suspect it will depend on whether any other team offers Navarro a starting job.  But since nobody offered him that starting job in 2015, it's quite possible that he doesn't get offered a starting job in 2016, which could nudge him back to the Jays.   We will see.
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JB21 - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:01 PM EST (#315142) #
CF, you want Martin catching Dickie?
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Mike Green - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:02 PM EST (#315144) #
I do not want Navarro back.  That would mean Martin catching Dickey.  That experience was painful to watch- Martin battled the knuckleball to a draw (more or less) but his overall performance suffered. 
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Mike Green - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:05 PM EST (#315146) #
Apparently the deal is somewhat back-end loaded- $11.5 million in 2015 and $14.5 million in 2016.  Which does mean that there are a few more shekels available for 2015.
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Mike Green - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:07 PM EST (#315147) #
Edit: a few more shekels available for 2016...
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China fan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:07 PM EST (#315148) #
Regarding the back-up catcher question;   I'm assuming that Martin gets better at catching Dickey in his second year.  Experience should help.  And the Jays should keep Thole available to take over the task occasionally, to give Martin a break, exactly as he did in 2015.   (One problem, however, is that I think Thole is out of options.  But if he was outrighted to Buffalo, he might not get taken by anyone on waivers, given his salary and his poor hitting numbers.)

I don't buy the theory that Martin's hitting numbers are adversely affected by the task of catching Dickey.  His hitting in 2015 was fairly close to his career norms, even if it didn't match up to 2014.

Of course the Jays might assess that Martin was getting unduly banged-up by the task of catching the knuckleball.  After all, the Jays have better medical information about Martin's health in 2016 than us fans do.   If the Jays feel that it was seriously causing health issues for Martin, then yes, Thole might have to be the answer.

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Mike Green - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:11 PM EST (#315149) #
Check out the monthly stats for Martin.  You can trace his hot and cold periods with his catching assignments.
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Parker - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:13 PM EST (#315150) #
I doubt the Jays will be willing to meet Navarro's asking price now that they're already paying big bucks to Martin.

I'd much rather see Josh Thole absorb the beating that goes with receiving Dickey. Martin needs to stay healthy enough to contribute with the bat.
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China fan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:16 PM EST (#315151) #
"....his overall performance suffered..."

In fact Martin's OPS in 2015 was his second-best of the past eight years.  It was far better than his hitting numbers from 2009 to 2013.  And he had the highest HR numbers of his career.  So why should we conclude that his hitting was adversely affected by Dickey?   It's true that Martin had health issues in August and his hitting suffered, but there are lots of potential reasons for those health issues.  Catchers tend to get worn down for a bunch of different reasons.
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China fan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:37 PM EST (#315152) #
The Jays salary commitments for 2016 are now around $115.5-million.  (Plus the league-minimum guys.)   So they could potentially have $20-million available for a top starter.  Or, perhaps more realistically, maybe around $14-million for a starter (if the contract is back-ended), plus $6-million for relievers.  They could also potentially free up some additional money (nearly $7-million) by trading Revere.  (And of course they'd have to subtract a few million for Navarro if they keep him.)  On the other hand, they might also hold back some money for trade-deadline acquisitions, which would reduce the amount available for pre-season acquisitions.  In any event, they should be in decent shape if they use the money wisely.
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Spifficus - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 05:58 PM EST (#315153) #

In fact Martin's OPS in 2015 was his second-best of the past eight years.

He also called the Rogers Centre home for the first time in his career, instead of a righty-disadvantageous park in Yankee Stadium, a righty-killing park in PNC Park, or an everything-killing park in Dodger Stadium. Given how beat up his hands were, and how his hitting recovered in Sept after Thole started catching Dickey (only bested in May, when Thole was also catching Dickey), I'm as reticent as others to have Martin catch Dickey again full-time. A few times in the year to keep sharp, and during the playoffs? Sure. 30+ starts? That's an abuse he could do without, for the best of himself and the team. Added bonus - it provides a built-in day off every 5 days to a 33 year old catcher.

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Parker - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 06:08 PM EST (#315154) #
"And he had the highest HR numbers of his career."

With all due respect, EVERYONE hits the most homers of their career when they play half their games in Skydome.

The rest of your argument is solid and I agree completely with it, but Navarro signed with Toronto to be a starter and got (sorta) starter money. Once the Jays signed Martin, Navarro's standing with the team changed fundamentally and irreversibly, and I doubt they'd be able to retain him without a massive overpayment.

Personally I'm torn on this, as I've had a long-standing grudge against the very concept of carrying a personal catcher for a non-elite pitcher, and Navarro certainly would provide greater value than Thole. The value of protecting Martin from Dickey starts is admittedly somewhat subjective, but I think the focus should be on the idea that Navarro would have to be convinced with a bunch of extra money just to consider sticking with the Jays.
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China fan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 06:08 PM EST (#315155) #
Martin's good hitting numbers in 2015 weren't solely due to Rogers stadium.  His OPS on the road was .768 which is perfectly fine for a catcher, and better than his numbers for any season from 2009 to 2013.  He also led the league in percentage of base-runners caught stealing in 2015.  So there's no indication that his performance was adversely affected by Dickey.

In any event, I'm not suggesting that Thole be dropped from the roster -- that's not what I said at all.  I suggested a repeat of the catching balance of the 2015 season, with three catchers being on the roster for much of the season.  It seemed to work for everyone.
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China fan - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 06:13 PM EST (#315156) #
"...Navarro would have to be convinced with a bunch of extra money just to consider sticking with the Jays....."

If that's true, of course he wouldn't be worth the investment, and I wouldn't support it.   But if he doesn't get an offer of a starting job from any other team (which is quite possible), then he'd have to settle for back-up catcher money, which would probably be around $3-million or $4-million max.  
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scottt - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 06:30 PM EST (#315157) #
I don't think we need Navarro. Martin could just watch some tapes of Navarro catching Estrada and figure out what he was doing.
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Lylemcr - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 07:00 PM EST (#315158) #
Estrada is locked.

Assuming Hutch is #4, you let Osuna and Sanchez fight for #5. Both of those guys have stuff to be #2 guys. That being said, they really made the bullpen solid last year.

I would definitely putting my eyes towards one veteran(or two) in the bullpen. The bullpen really hurt last year in the first half.

Then, I would sign a backup plan for #5.

I
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Richard S.S. - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 07:16 PM EST (#315159) #
So we need a new post. The Jays are still after at least two more Starters and at least one Reliever if you need something to head it by.
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vw_fan17 - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 07:51 PM EST (#315160) #
The Jays are still after at least two more Starters and at least one Reliever

I would think at least one more starter, and at least two relievers..
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Mylegacy - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 09:12 PM EST (#315163) #
Further to my comparing Estrada to Hentgen... Dave Till mentions that umpires are calling high strikes again...true...a lot of reason for that is the pitch/strike chart that is shown on TV every pitch (on many channels) this has forced the umps to call high strikes again. Also, it's been mentioned that Estrada gets a lot of "pop ups." Two reasons - he throws "high" with his fastball and it has the highest difference velocity (11.7mph) in all of baseball (according to Fangraphs) between the fastball and his spectacular changeup. Because of that difference in speed of the pitches, because his arm speed with the changeup is so similar to his arm speed with the fastball - when they swing they're still under the high heat and they pop it up.

Estrada has some tools that advanced metrics can measure - but - in truth - they really can't appreciate how effective these tools are in the real world.

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Lylemcr - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:00 PM EST (#315164) #
Damn you red Sox!!!! I wanted that closer... :(
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uglyone - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:16 PM EST (#315165) #
$13m per year for a closer, and they had to give up some really good prospects too. (Margot is one of the few sox prospects i think is actually underrated). that's a steepnprice.
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hypobole - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:24 PM EST (#315166) #
You still don't think Boston will be a contender next year, uglyone?

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uglyone - Friday, November 13 2015 @ 10:31 PM EST (#315167) #
you think a reliever makes them a contender?
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hypobole - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 01:12 AM EST (#315168) #
i believed they would be a contender before this trade, which i also think was a huge overpay.

But this trade does signal DD isn't shy about using the strong Boston prospect pool as trade chips to upgrade the major league team. DD isn't close to finished.
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uglyone - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 01:48 AM EST (#315169) #
why did you think they'd be a contender again? because all their players would magically get better or something?

If DD manages to add a number of impact players then sure they can contend. that's true of most teams, though.

btw, after this trade, the Sox are up at $170 payroll.
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scottt - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 06:12 AM EST (#315170) #
They value their fans too much too stand pat no matter the payroll.
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bpoz - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 11:41 AM EST (#315171) #
What are the dates for offering arb and non tendering players? That could be the same thing, but I am not sure.Have those dates past?
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melondough - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 12:03 PM EST (#315173) #
I have two questions...

Seeing what BOS just gave up for Kimbrel, anyone want to take a best guess what the Reds would expect from Jays for one year of Chapman? Keep in mind that the Reds would also be trading the sandwich pick away. The one they would surely get once Chapman declines the Qualifying offer after next season?

Also any takers on the idea of signing Navarro, two more starting pitchers, and trading for yet another starting pitcher allowing us to deal Dickey for prospects which we can deal for a RP? Solves the "who is gonna catch Dickey" argument and keeps Navarro around as a competent backup.
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finch - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 12:22 PM EST (#315174) #
Chapman, for the Blue Jays, is too rich for their blood. They traded so many prospects at the deadline, I see them having too difficult of a time giving up MORE prospects. I see them freeing up money with a trade of Reevre and acquiring a top prospect.

I would love for the Jays to trade Dickey but I don't think that's happening for a few reasons. 1) It's difficult to replace a pitcher that eats up 200 innings a year. The Jays need that to keep their bullpen fresh. 2) His option, which was picked up, is tremendous value for the Jays. His second half stats were pretty good. 3) I don't think he brings back much from other teams. Maybe a B- prospect. It would be nice to free up his money; money that can be used for another free agent pitcher but Mike Leake will cost you more per year and longer term. Probably not worth it.
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ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 12:26 PM EST (#315175) #
They value their fans too much too stand pat no matter the payroll.

Other way around. The Blue Jays spend a much higher portion of their revenue on payroll than the Red Sox. Red Sox fans spend more than twice as much for tickets as Blue Jays fans, Red Sox fans provide more than three times the revenue per fan. Rogers spends with the 'big boys' while Blue Jays fans don't. One of the main reasons the 'blame Rogers' narrative is so common is because it requires so little thought.
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finch - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 12:33 PM EST (#315176) #
That's comparing Apples and Oranges. Until Rogers allocates TV revenue to the Blue Jays' accounting ledger, and not their cable provider, you can't compare the two teams. If they did, then they don't spend nearly the same percentage as the Red Sox.
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uglyone - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 03:05 PM EST (#315177) #
last year the jays built a very good bullpen for peanuts. don't know why people would want to pay huge money and prospects for a closer.

think about it this way - at least 2 of the prospects the sox just gave up for Kimbrel were rated more highly than Osuna last year.

or think about it another way - Kimbrel and Cecil have been near identical the last 2yrs:

Kimbrel: 121.0ip, 59era-, 60fip-, 62xfip-
Cecil: 107.2ip, 65era-, 59fip-, 63xfip-

now Chapman is better than Kimbrel, but i'm not giving up Alford++ for him.
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uglyone - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 03:07 PM EST (#315178) #
"They value their fans too much too stand pat no matter the payroll."

I hope they get a better return than they did last year after handing out over $500m in contract commitments.
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Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 03:08 PM EST (#315179) #
One consolation exists with the Marco Estrada signing and subsequent statement by LaCava saying he's after two more Starters. He needs a Reliever or two along with those Starters. I firmly believe he has as much money to spend as needed. That could get into the $150.0 MM - $160.0 MM or more range.
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uglyone - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 03:30 PM EST (#315180) #
If he gets another starter, that means both Osuna and Sanchez are back in the bullpen.

2yr Stats

1.Cecil (29): 107.2ip, 65era-, 59fip-, 63xfip-, 1.5war/65ip
2.Sanchez (23): 59.1ip, 42era-, 74fip-, 81xfip-, 1.7war/65ip
3.Osuna (21): 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.5war/65ip
4.Hendriks (27): 71.2ip, 74era-, 51fip-, 69xfip-, 1.2war/65ip
5.Loup (28): 111.0ip, 92era-, 96fip-, 91xfip-, 0.4war/65ip

6.Jenkins (28): 35.1ip, 72era-, 102fip-, 111xfip-, 0.6war/65ip
7.Venditte (31): 28.2ip, 113era-, 104fip-, 123xfip-, 0.1war/65
8.Rowen (27): 8.2ip, 102era-, 75fip-, 92xfip-, 0.4war/65ip
9.Schultz (30): 51.0ip, 106era-, 116fip-, 103xfip-, -0.1war/65
10.Tepera (28): 33.0ip, 80era-, 141fip-, 106xfip-, -0.2war/65
11.Delabar (32): 55.0ip, 127era-, 131fip-, 126xfip-, -0.7war/

paying market price for another releiver sounds ludicrous to me tbh.

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China fan - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 03:50 PM EST (#315181) #
Uglyone, you forgot Girodo, who probably ranks about 6 or 7 on the current bullpen depth list (until the new acquisitions arrive).

I don't think it's "ludicrous" to pay market price for a reliever, even if Osuna and Sanchez return to the bullpen.  First of all, there will be plenty of flux in the bullpen, due to the usual injuries and implosions, so the Jays need as much depth as possible.  You can't get all the required depth from the waiver wire.  The Jays tried that in the first half of 2015 and it really didn't work.  I'm still not convinced that Loup will bounce back in 2016, and the rest of the depth chart looks thin.  Last season, the bullpen didn't solidify until they acquired Price (allowing Sanchez to stay in the bullpen) and until they acquired Lowe and Hawkins.  Also, remember that in the past, there was nothing "ludicrous" about paying market price for free agents such as Darren Oliver who was quite useful in 2012 for a reasonable price of just $4-million.  Bottom line:  don't take the bullpen lightly as just a bunch of fungible guys, or you end up losing a bunch of winnable games, as the Jays did in April and May of 2015.

"....If he gets another starter, that means both Osuna and Sanchez are back in the bullpen...."

Not necessarily.  At the moment, the only guaranteed spots are Stroman, Dickey and Estrada.  If they acquire another starter, that still leaves a vacancy in the 5th spot, and it won't be automatically handed to Hutchison.  There will be spring-training competition, and I'm sure the Jays will stretch out one or two of their relievers to keep them as rotation options until the season begins at least.  In fact, LaCava has talked about trying to get 2 more starting pitchers, which is smart, because you need depth.  If they do get 2 more starters, one of them will likely be a lower-priced swing man who could also be a bullpen option.



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uglyone - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 04:11 PM EST (#315182) #
"The Jays tried that in the first half of 2015 and it really didn't work."

What the jay tried in 2015 not only worked, but worked spectacularly.

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jerjapan - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 04:29 PM EST (#315183) #
Well, the pen was a problem for a couple of months.  Uglyone, you have certainly convinced me that building a bullpen on the cheap is a shrewd use of resources, but I do like the thought of an extra elite arm.  Did you read the Fangraphs article about WAR's failure to measure the extra value of an elite reliever? 

That said, my Chapman fantasy went out the window the moment I saw the price Boston paid for Kimbrel.  I much prefer the thought of a Benoit type pick up - he's not crazy expensive for one year and the prospect cost for Seattle was minimal. 

One of the main reasons the 'blame Rogers' narrative is so common is because it requires so little thought

CDBC, It doesn't require much thought because it's pretty clear that Rogers hasn't done all that much for the fans - the Dome, which was basically given to Rogers on the taxpayers dime, is a pretty poor venue, the team had the longest playoff drought in north american sports till this year, the Beeston / AA scenario, whether you like Shapiro / AA or not, was a fan-unfriendly fiasco, payroll inflexibility has cost us (although this may have been as much AA's fault as anything), and the statue that they put up?  Ted Rogers. 

And let's not even get into the fact that they are a monopoly that gouges consumers. 

Rogers has a well-deserved, self-created perception problem. 
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uglyone - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 04:39 PM EST (#315184) #
Even the best bullpens will have bad months. The Jays' bullpen's bad months weren't even that bad.

APR: 101era- (20th), -0.32wpa (23rd)
MAY: 89era- (15th), -2.93wpa (30th)
JUN: 65era- (8th), +0.89 (13th)
JUL: 74era- (9th), +0.06 (15th)
AUG: 51era- (2nd), +1.39wpa (7th)
SEP: 124era- (25th), -0.91wpa (19th)
2015: 86era- (8th), -1.81wpa (27th)

they did blow up good in the clutch in may, but that's about it.

as for loup, he had great underlying numbers all year, and over the last quarter of his innings (10.2ip) his era dropped back down to 2.53 to match his peripherals so he pretty much already has recovered.
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JB21 - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 05:01 PM EST (#315185) #
Has this been posted yet?
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John Northey - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 05:23 PM EST (#315186) #
In the first half...
Vets...
Loup: 42 G, 33 1/3 IP 34 H 4 HR 5 BB 37 SO somehow got him a 4.86 ERA
Cecil: 33 G 29 IP 27 H 4 HR 11 BB 33 SO 4.66 ERA
Delabar: 25 G 24 IP 18 H 3 HR 11 BB 27 SO 3.75 ERA

The surprises...
Osuna: 38 G 40 IP 27 H 2 HR 10 BB 44 SO 2.25 ERA
Hendriks: 31 G 39 IP 35 H 2 HR 6 BB 37 SO 3.00 ERA

No one else had 20 Games pitched. But surprises Tepera, Schultz both had sub 3 ERA's, Castro was 'meh' but not bad for a 20 year old (ERA in the 4's).

So I don't see the issue with the AAAA guys or the kids. The big issues were Cecil (who had a strong 2nd half) and Loup who allowed more runs than he should've. Delabar is a mix/match as vet and surprise as he has an ASG in 2013 but also sucked in 2014.

Spending on relievers as a general rule is a bad idea. Relievers are so variable year to year and even inside a single season (see Cecil) that betting lots of $$$ on them is a big risk. Better to get a batch of really good arms with flaws (can't get either LH or RH out, going through a wild stretch, no endurance, whatever) that you can work around (for example, keep Loup away from RH hitters and Delabar away from LH).

In the 2nd half Cecil had a 0 ERA, Sanchez a 2.39 and Osuna a 3.03 all in 30 games each. Hendriks 2.81 in 27 games, Lowe (traded for) 3.79 in 23 games, Hawkins 2.76 in 18 games, Loup 3.00 in 18 games, while Shultz & Tepera came back to earth with 4+ ERAs in under 20 games each. Delabar sucked in 5 IP giving up 7 runs. So Cecil & Hawkins & Loup were vets who did great, Lowe a vet who was meh at best, Osuna & Sanchez kids who were killer, Hendriks a AAAA type who was solid, Shultz & Tepera AAAA'ers who did poorly.
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bpoz - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 06:03 PM EST (#315188) #
Thanks uglyone and others for the SP & pen option. A good list to work with.

Also thanks to John N on the number crunching.
I have always found it unfair, even though it is not unfair, that the men on base when a reliever is pulled score and that counts against the ERA. eg 10 men left on base by Reliever A & B, for A 2 score and for B 6 score.

Is it my fan bias that I think Osuna was one of the best closers in the game last year? Again saving a 1 run game is harder than saving a 3 lead game.
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Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 06:41 PM EST (#315190) #
For those unwilling to spend money on the Bullpen, remember the Jays 2015 Postseason. Cecil was injured for too many games. Loup missed more than a few games and wasn't that good to start with. Gibbons basically only trusted Sanchez and Osuna.

The Jays need at least one Reliever, possibly two. One LHP as good as or better than Cecil is definitely needed. Ideally Cecil, New Guy, Loup as LHP and Osuna, Sanchez, New Guy or Lowe, Hendriks or Schultz as RHP. That will be a much better Bullpen than any they had last year. Total cost: at most: $10.0 MM, but as little as $7.5 MM for the acquisitions.
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ayjackson - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 06:46 PM EST (#315191) #
"Until Rogers allocates TV revenue to the Blue Jays' accounting ledger"

Don't hold your breath. Media has very small profit margins and can't afford much reallocation of the pie. Canadian advertising money does not flow as freely as it does in the U S of A.
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uglyone - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 06:51 PM EST (#315192) #
well said Mr.Northey!

and just for fun becuz i hate the sox:

2yr Stats

Cecil (29): 107.2ip, 65era-, 59fip-, 63xfip-, 1.5war/65
Kimbrel (28): 121.0ip, 57era-, 60fip-, 62xfip-, 2.0war/65

Sanchez (23): 59.1ip, 42era-, 74fip-, 81xfip-, 1.7war/65
Uehara (41): 104.2ip, 59era-, 75fip-, 73xfip-, 1.8war/65

Osuna (21): 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.5war/65
Tazawa (30): 121.2ip, 84era-, 78fip-, 88xfip-, 1.0war/65

Hendriks (27): 71.2ip, 74era-, 51fip-, 69xfip-, 1.2war/65
Varvaro (31): 65.2ip, 76era-, 88fip-, 90xfip-, 0.6war/65

Loup (28): 111.0ip, 92era-, 96fip-, 91xfip-, 0.4war/65
Layne (31): 66.2ip, 74era-, 94fip-, 100xfip-, 0.6war/65

Jenkins (28): 35.1ip, 72era-, 102fip-, 111xfip-, 0.6war/65
Mendez (25): 46.2ip, 74era-, 118fip-, 139xfip-, 0.6war/65

Venditte (31): 28.2ip, 113era-, 104fip-, 123xfip-, 0.1war/65
Wright (31): 36.1ip, 96era-, 110fip-, 96xfip-, -0.1war/65

Schultz (30): 51.0ip, 106era-, 116fip-, 103xfip-, -0.1war/65
Ross (27): 79.0ip, 115era-, 102fip-, 97xfip-, -0.1war/65

Tepera (28): 33.0ip, 80era-, 141fip-, 106xfip-, -0.2war/65
Barnes (26): 41.2ip, 98era-, 123fip-, 107xfip-, -0.2war/65

Delabar (32): 55.0ip, 127era-, 131fip-, 126xfip-, -0.7war/65
Hembree (27): 35.1ip, 92era-, 137fip-, 134xfip-, 0.0war/65



BOS: ~$26.5m
TOR: ~$7.5m
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China fan - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 09:41 PM EST (#315194) #
"....What the jay tried in 2015 not only worked, but worked spectacularly..."

I wouldn't count on the July 2016 availability of David Price, Mark Lowe, and big upgrades at SS and LF.   That's not the kind of rabbit you can pull out of the hat every year.
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China fan - Saturday, November 14 2015 @ 09:52 PM EST (#315195) #
"....Even the best bullpens will have bad months. The Jays' bullpen's bad months weren't even that bad....."

Fair enough, but the Jays bullpen had big holes in April, May and October -- and those were key months.  You can trot out the small-sample-size ERAs if you wish, but the reality is that the Jays only have 4 reliable relievers available for 2016, and one of them might be needed for the rotation.  I don't see how Loup can be classified as reliable -- his numbers have been declining for years, and his "underlying numbers" weren't enough to convince the Jays to keep him in the majors during the key part of the playoff drive.  You can cite all the numbers you want for Tepera, Schultz, Jenkins or whomever, but they weren't good enough for high-leverage work in September or October, and I don't think the Jays should rely on them in 2016 for anything more than the 7th slot in the bullpen.  So, like it or not, the Jays have to acquire bullpen arms.  The only question is whether you trade for them or pay free-agent money to them.  And I don't think the Jays should be trading any more of their dwindling supply of prospects, at this point, especially if they can acquire a reliever for a few million on the free-agent market.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 07:33 AM EST (#315197) #
Thank you.
The best of the LHP Relievers are Bastardo, Sipp and I think Blevens. We might not like it, but the Jays really need one of these guys, or someone better. I'm not sure who's good enough from the Free Agent list, but I extremely doubt a LHP Reliever is available in Trade. Relying on in-house might be a right answer, but it's not the best answer. It's long past time the Jays stopped looking for the right answer and started acquiring the best answer.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 10:06 AM EST (#315199) #
I think CF has he best analysis of the bullpen and the need to upgrade. Ugly, the reason you pay for those arms is to avoid the slip ups in the clutch as much as possible.

Jerjapan, You make it sound like Rogers stole the Skydome away from the fans. Yes, they got a great deal, but they were the only corporation willing to step up and spend the $26 million for the stadium, plus the money for the team. On top of that, you leave out the fact that the previous owner had no interest in running the team anymore (which itself has expenses) and there were no other buyers out there, I even remember whispers of American buyers and relocation in the news at the time. Point is, as much as people may hate Rogers for charging for services and resurrecting a statue of a capitalist (among many other issues), that point of view is only one narrative, not any more valid than opposite points of view held on this board by other posters such as myself.

For the record, I think Rogers has done great with their initial decisions, but have been consistently poor with their secondary and tertiary moves. ie. Buy the Blue Jays and bring stability to the team, followed by cutting costs and resurrecting a statue of a corporate owner when they could have done better with a baseball statue. Another example this year - decide to reinvest in the stadium experience and bring in a new president, then allow the old regime to go for it.
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jensan - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 10:38 AM EST (#315200) #
Sign Lackey 3/48 and Kazmir 3/36, than trade Dickey and Thole for prospects.
Than take the extra monies and put $ 8 MM into a FA reliever.

SP of Stroman, Lackey, Kazmir, Estrada and Hutchison totals 42.5 MM.
increase your Bullpen budget is $15 MM.
Sign a backup catcher for $2/6 or trade for Derek Norris from the Padres for Ben Revere.
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uglyone - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 11:07 AM EST (#315201) #
"the reality is that the Jays only have 4 reliable relievers available for 2016"

what does "only" mean there?
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 12:31 PM EST (#315202) #
Top Free Agent Starters available without Qualifying Offer are:
1) David Price LHP, 30.
2) Johnny Cueto RHP, 30.
3) Mike Leak RHP, 28.
4) Kenta Maeda, not yet posted.
5) Scott Kasmir LHP, 32.
6) J.A. Happ LHP, 33.
7) Mat Latos RHP, 28.
8) Doug Fister RHP, 32.
9) Mike Pelfrey RHP, 32.

Top available Free Agent Relievers are:
1) Darren O'Day RHP, 33.
2) Joakim Soria RHP, 32.
3) Tyler Clippard RHP, 31.
4) Antonio Bastardo LHP, 30.
5) Ryan Madson RHP, 36.
6) Shawn Kelley RHP, 32.
7) Tony Sipp LHP, 32.

Oh, and by the way, Shapiro might want to lose his 1st Round Pick but the Top Free Agent Starters with Qualifying Offer are:
1) Zach Greinke RHP, 32.
2) Jordan Zimmermann RHP, 30.
3) Jeff Samardzija RHP, 31.
4) Wei-Yin Chen RHP, 30.
5) Ian Kennedy RHP, 31.
6) Yovani Gallardo RHP, 30.
7) John Lackey RHP, 37.
8) Hasashi Iwakuma RHP, 35.

If you go to MLB Trade Rumors - 2015-16 Top 50 Free Agents With Prediction you'll see what's available. As a side note, how deep is Cincinnati's Fire Sale? Could the Jays get Chapman and Votto?
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JB21 - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 12:49 PM EST (#315204) #
Gibby announced that his entire staff is officially back. IMO Shapiro is doing a great job of handling this "situation" so far.
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Mylegacy - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 02:33 PM EST (#315205) #
As a lefty in the pen I really like Sipp. However, he is not a Loggy - his stats against both righties and lefties are both wonderful.
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uglyone - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 04:26 PM EST (#315208) #
I think Sipp is a perfect example to argue about.

Sipp will be 33 years old next year. A soft tossing lefty averaging a tick over 90mph on his heater. He has been bad most of his career, until figuring something out the last 2yrs - possibly due to him figuring out how to use his changeup effectively.

Looking at those last 2yrs, his only good ones, in comparison to our bullpen:

Cecil (29): 107.2ip, 65era-, 59fip-, 63xfip-, 1.5war/65
Sanchez (23): 59.1ip, 42era-, 74fip-, 81xfip-, 1.7war/65
Osuna (21): 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.5war/65
Sipp (33): 105.0ip, 68era-, 74fip-, 80xfip-, 1.4war/65
Hendriks (27): 71.2ip, 74era-, 51fip-, 69xfip-, 1.2war/65
Loup (28): 111.0ip, 92era-, 96fip-, 91xfip-, 0.4war/65

so honest question - how much money do you want to spend on a guy who, if he doesn't succumb to age, would be our 2nd lefty and 4th or 5th best reliever?
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 04:59 PM EST (#315209) #
New post up. I think Antonio Bastardo is the leftie we should get.
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jerjapan - Sunday, November 15 2015 @ 05:10 PM EST (#315211) #
I'm not willing to spend much on sipp, or Lowe for that matter, although 2years at 4 million per would work for me. Probably not for Lowe though. I think Benoit, who I raised earlier, is a better bet. Short term vets like uehara are the best reliever value aside from the elite closers IMO. What's the Asian fa market for pitchers this year? Should we try for maeda to fill out the rotation?
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scottt - Monday, November 16 2015 @ 08:10 AM EST (#315220) #
Even the best bullpens will have bad months. The Jays' bullpen's bad months weren't even that bad.

When a team keeps losing and the stats show they are doing great, I take it with a lot of salt.
"Not even that bad" is a pretty good description of the Blue Jays over the last 20 years.

Loup shouldn't face right handed batters. Cecil can't close. I don't see that changing in 2016.
Osuna was pretty good in the closer role.  I wouldn't mind seeing him back there for another year.
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scottt - Monday, November 16 2015 @ 08:14 AM EST (#315221) #
Do we need another leftie? Without a left handed starter, the benches will be full of right handed pinch hitters.
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uglyone - Monday, November 16 2015 @ 12:30 PM EST (#315230) #
"When a team keeps losing and the stats show they are doing great, I take it with a lot of salt.
"Not even that bad" is a pretty good description of the Blue Jays over the last 20 years."

yep.

the last 20yrs have seen us spend a ton of money and trade assets for relievers, with no results.

last year we spent no money on RP, had our best bullpen in 20yrs, and made the playoffs.
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China fan - Monday, November 16 2015 @ 01:16 PM EST (#315233) #
"....last year we spent no money on RP, had our best bullpen in 20yrs, and made the playoffs...."

It was only a good bullpen in August and September -- and the Jays did trade assets for Lowe and Hawkins.   So your statement is quite misleading. 

The other reason for the good bullpen in 2015 was the decision to take the team's elite prospects (Osuna and Sanchez) and put them into the bullpen instead of developing them as starters.  That's not a sustainable policy. 
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uglyone - Monday, November 16 2015 @ 01:26 PM EST (#315234) #
no, the bullpen was one of the best in baseball, over the course of the season.
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jerjapan - Monday, November 16 2015 @ 03:52 PM EST (#315240) #
ChinaFan, you are right about the elite prospects in the pen being a unique phenomenon.  Do any of our A ball guys seem like the sort of pitcher that could make the Osuna jump next year?  I think it's Mike Green who has argued for breaking top pitching prospects in out of the pen  to get their feet wet in the bigs - I'm fine with this approach and think it was ideal with Osuna - he made major contributions, and got the right number of innings in, with the best coaching and nutrition available. 

the 'fungible' guys ended up being middle relievers - Hendricks was fifth on our depth chart last year after we acquired Lowe?  I think the Uglyone strategy of building a pen on the cheap works for the lower-leverage guys, but an Andrew Miller type at the back end of the rotation has real value to me.  Again, I refer back to the Fangraphs article noting that we may undervalue elite relievers when using metrics like WAR. 

If Osuna and Sanchez are out of the pen again next year, it's pretty strong IMO, but I really hope at least one of them is in the rotation. 

Uglyone, let me ask you this - if you were willing to sign one reliever, who would it be? 

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China fan - Monday, November 16 2015 @ 04:53 PM EST (#315244) #
I agree with Jerjapan -- you can build most of the bullpen on the cheap, but not all of it.  Osuna and Sanchez are financially cheap, but they're not cheap if you're measuring the "opportunity cost" of postponing their transition to a starting-rotation role.

It will be interesting to see if the Jays make another attempt in 2016 to take an elite prospect and put him into the major-league bullpen.  Conner Greene perhaps??  But it's really not as simple as it might seem -- as the Castro example showed in April 2015.

The Jays were relatively lucky with the unexpectedly good performances of Osuna and Hendriks in 2015.  They turned out to be 2 of the top 4 pitchers in the bullpen, and nobody could have predicted that.   It can be argued that you can always get lucky if you audition enough relievers -- there will always be one or two who stick, if you audition 8 or 10 of them. But don't forget the cost of the botched saves and lost games as the Jays painfully learn which relievers aren't good enough.  Lowe and Hawkins were more predictably good in August and September, but the Jays had to go out and acquire them for prospect capital.


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