Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
We know who to thank for all the blessings we have enjoyed.


We know we are not worthy. We know also that we continue to need his aid, more now than ever before.

This is why we offer the finest cigars...

This is why we offer the most delicious rum.

This is why we reserve all praise for Jobu.

It is he who makes the curveballs hang over the plate

It is he who drives the changeups into the dirt.

We just hit the fastballs.

The Jays have gone 5-8 against the Devil Fishies so far in 2021. That's pretty good, when it comes to the Jays playing the Rays - over the last three years, Toronto has gone 16-32 against Tampa Bay (along with 0-2 in the post-season.) Since 2008, when Tampa Bay stopped losing 90 games every year, the Jays have posted a winning record against the Rays just twice: in 2014 (11-8) and 2017 (10-9). Particularly painful were the 4-14 marks for the 2009 and 20-12 Jays. In these fourteen seasons, Toronto has gone 91-142 against Tampa Bay. Which is a pretty awful .390 winning percentage (63-99 over 162 games).

The story so far:

Things actually started out pretty well. The Jays went into the Trop, long a house of horrors, and took two of three.

April 23: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 3 - A three run homer by Semien in the fourth inning helped stake Matz to an early 4-0 lead. The Rays closed to within a run, but a Grichuk homer provided some breathing room. Four relievers - Chatwood, Phelps, Mayza, and Dolis - held the Rays hitless over the final four innings.
April 24: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 5 - This time it was a three run homer from Grichuk in the first inning that staked Robbie Ray to an early lead. But the Rays tied it up on homers from Zunino and Brosseau and won it when Romano issued a pair of walks that eventually came around to score, thanks in large part to a Biggio error.
April 25: Toronto 1 at Tampa Bay 0 - Hyun-Jin Ryu came out in the fourth inning with a pain in his glute, but five relievers - Mayza, Chatwood, Borucki, Phelps, Dolis - blanked the Rays on just two hits the rest of the way. Fifth inning singles from Semien, Gurriel, and Espinal pushed across the game's only run.

It was too good to last. The Rays came up the road to Dunedin in late May, and had their revenge, sweeping all four games.

May 21: Tampa Bay 9 at Toronto 7 - The Jays beat up on Tyler Glasnow, knocking him out in the fifth inning and taking a 5-3 lead. But Anthony Kay was wild and only lasted four himself, and the Rays tied the game against Bergen and Cole. Then the teams started trading zeroes. Four Jays relievers - Romano, Mayza, Chatwood, Payamps - provided five shutout innings. Toronto's eighth pitcher of the day was Jeremy Beasley, and he got tagged for an eleventh inning grand slam by Mejia.
May 22: Tampa Bay 3 at Toronto 1 - Robbie Ray and Shane McClanahan were the starters, and after seven innings it was a 1-1 game, and in the hands of the bullpens. The Rays got one against Castro in the eighth and another against Thornton in the ninth.
May 23: Tampa Bay 4 at Toronto 6 - Ryu pitched into the seventh, and left with the score tied 2-2. The Jays took the lead on Grichuk's two run homer in the bottom of the eighth, only for the pen to immediately cough it up in grotesque fashion. Chatwood came in to close the game, but after two hits and two walks, the score was 4-3 and the bases were loaded. Bergen came in to get the final out but instead walked three batters in succession, each one plating another run.
May 24: Tampa Bay 14 at Toronto 8 - One bullpen implosion evidently calls for another. The Rays roughed up Thornton for five first inning runs, all unearned thanks to a Biggio error, which Thornton followed by walking the next two hitters and giving up a Wendle grand slam. Ross Stripling took over and turned his season around, providing seven scoreless innings while the Jays fought their way back, tying the game in the eighth on Guerrero's second homer of the day. The Rays scored twice against Castro in the tenth; the Jays tied it up again, on Semien's two run homer in the bottom half. So in the eleventh, the Rays took no chances, abusing Payamps and Mayza for seven runs.

Tampa Bay next came to Buffalo at the beginning of July, and the Jays took two of those three games.

July 2: Tampa Bay 1 at Toronto 11 - Manoah fanned 10 in seven innings to collect his second big league W. A two run homer from Springer in the first inning was all the offense that would be required, but the team piled on lots more just to be safe, with Semien and Guerrero also going deep.
July 3: Tampa Bay 3 at Toronto 6 - McClanahan and Stripling were locked up in a 1-1 game until the Jays suddenly put up a five spot in the sixth inning, the big blows being a two run single from Biggio aand a two run homer from Espinal.
July 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 1 - This started out as a pitcher's duel between Yarbrough and Ray. Grichuk's solo homer gave the Jays an early lead but the Rays tied it in the sixth on a homer by Franco. This was followed by doubles from Diaz and Meadows, and the Rays took a 2-1 lead into the ninth. They then took advantage of a generous Rafael Dolis (single, double, wild pitch, hit batter, double) for three more runs.

So the next week they were down in Tampa Bay, and the Rays took two of three.

July 9: Toronto 1 at Tampa Bay 7 - Springer's RBI single gave the Jays the early lead, but the Rays responded with two in their half of the inning, and the Jays were pretty much done hitting for the day. The Rays mauled Castro and Barnes for four more runs just to make sure it never did get very interesting.
July 10: Toronto 2 at Tampa Bay 5 - The ball was flying out the yard early on. Lowe in the first inning gave the Rays a quick 1-0 lead, but Semien hit a two run shot in the third to put the Jays on top. Stripling instantly gave up a solo shot to Zunino and and a two run blast by Lowe (again) to put the Rays up 4-2 and the Jays managed not one hit after the fourth inning.
July 11: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 1 - Robbie Ray was dominant, fanning 11 and allowing just one hit over seven innings. Jansen's solo homer in the third gave the Jays the lead; an RBI single from Espinal and a Biggio sac fly added two more in the fourth. Romano got the save and blew the shutout on yet another Lowe homer.

Matchups!

Monday 13 September 7:00 PM - Yarbrough (8-4, 4.90) vs Manoah (5-2, 3.71)
Tuesday 14 September 7:00 PM - Rasmussen (2-0, 2.86) vs Berrios (11-7, 3.52)
Wednesday 15 September 3:00 PM - Some Guy (?-?, ?.??) vs Ray (11-5, 2.69)

That big goof Yarbrough is 8-1, 2.47 lifetime against the Jays (16 games, 8 starts.)  Against the Rays, Manoah is 1-1, 1.69; Ray is 1-2, 2.68; Berrios is 0-2, 7.15
Tampa Bay at Toronto, September 13-15 | 185 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#406893) #
Advantage to the Jays notwithstanding, it is a shame that we won't get to see Wander Franco for the next week and a half.
hypobole - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#406894) #
Per Fangraphs 2nd half stats (since the All Star break)

Pitching FIP: TOR 3.91, TBR 3.93
Batting wRC+: TOR 125, TBR 122.

Both are the top 2 in the AL. The batting numbers are tops in MLB, the pitching is 4/5 behind LAD, MIL, SFG.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#406895) #
another way to look at that on fangraphs is using their "Active Roster" selection so we can ignore guys who are off the rosters and we include the full year stats of the new additions.

Active Roster Team Stats:

Hitters:

116wrc+ (#1 mlb, #1 AL)
0.3dwar (#19 mlb, #5 AL)
30.0war (#1 mlb, #1 AL)

Pitchers:

83era- (#3 mlb, #1 AL)
95fip- (#11 mlb, #6 AL)
90xfip- (#4 mlb, #2 AL)

15.9fwar (#12 mlb, #6 AL)
23.3ra9war (#4 mlb, #2 AL)


uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#406896) #
add in:

3.4bsr (#12 MLB, #5 AL)
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#406897) #
I just read this over and only then did I notice that I had used the word "abused" about half a dozen times to describe how Tampa was treating the Jays' pitchers. This offends me, on purely aesthetic grounds. Hence a desperate search for synonyms. I hope the search is now over.
Steve02 - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#406899) #
The Orioles have an off-day Monday before hosting the Yankees then they visit the Red Sox. It'll be interesting to me how they affect the standings this week.
Chuck - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#406900) #
Alek Manoah has hit 11 batters in 85 innings, ordinarily a record level place.

But we live in interesting times.

Padre reliever Austin Adams has hit 23 in just 49 innings. The 23 ties the "live ball era" record. He has allowed just 24 hits meaning that you are as likely to be hit by him as to get a hit off him. Prior to this season, he had hit just 2 batters in 42 innings.

uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#406901) #
Speaking of game length (from the last thread)....and other things..

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/09/13/blue-jays-offense-the-opener
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#406902) #
Man that's a cool article.
bpoz - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#406904) #
R Yarborough probably gets arb this year. He would get a good pay if he only played the Jays.
Nigel - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#406905) #
In a stat that just sort of crept up on me, the Jays have now garnered 3.4 bWAR out of the McGuire/Jansen/Kirk C combo (a sliver of that has come from Kirk at DH). Somehow, they've managed an above average to near all-star level of performance out of that position.
Nigel - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#406907) #
Looks like you will be able to add the Yankees as potential suitors for Semien in the offseason. The Yankees have, unfortunately (but finally), decided to throw in the towel on Torres as a SS and moved him to 2B. He wasn't good at 2B either though so that's a positive.
Gerry - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#406908) #
Ryan Borucki has been recalled. Trent Thornton has been demoted.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#406909) #
Baseball America just did their final prospect update of the year....

Austin Martin

Pre-Season #19
June Pre-Draft #14
June Post-Draft #16
Today's Update #36

#pathological
John Northey - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#406910) #
I miss the old 40 man limit in September. Then Borucki would've just been called up and Thornton and Castro would still be in the pen. Still, with Buffalo still playing and likely going to the playoffs it is good to keep them with some arms.

On 40 man, in AAA: Kay, Saucedo, Castro, Thornton, Snead, Hatch, Baker.
IIRC it is 10 days before a guy can be called back up unless injury or extra man in a double header (Hatch). Guessing Snead is next on the shuffle (optioned on the 4th), then Baker (8th), Kay on IL (8th as well), Saucedo (11th), Castro (12th), Thornton (13th). Thanks to being that DH extra Hatch gets to come up whenever needed but is being kept stretched out as a starter just in case. All those guys are on the 40 man and can be flip flopped this season (option already activated in all cases) and none are more than 'eat a few innings' guys. Castro, Saucedo, and Snead showed promise of being more but at this point why would you unless it was needed due to a drained pen.

So Romano-Mayza-Richards-Cimber-Soria-Pearson-Merryweather is the order these guys are trusted I think with Boruki-Saucedo-Castro-Snead-Thornton-Kay-Baker sharing the last man in the pen slot. Not bad given only 2 of the 7 trusted were around pre-July (Cimber came on June 29th, Richards July 6th, Soria July 30th, Pearson & Merryweather just off IL). Hand was a waste, as was Roark, Phelps had a great 11 games, Yates was money down the drain - that is over $20 mil of waste. Current pen is cheap and good with Soria the only one going into free agency I think. The Jays are in great shape for a long run.
Chuck - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#406911) #
The Yankees have... decided to throw in the towel on Torres as a SS and moved him to 2B

The Yankees were an oddly configured team to start the season and are paying for it. No competent SS. Two second basemen in LeMahieu and Torres, one a good glove and one not so good. No real backup plan in CF to protect against the very fragile Hicks going down. No plausible 1B to fill in for Voit coming off surgery (Jay Bruce?).

With Urshela going down, they acquire the non-talent that is Odor. This means moving Lemahieu to 3B, where he is less valuable, or playing Odor at 3B, a brand new position to him.

They acquire Rizzo which looks good on paper except that to deal with their offensive challenges, they now DH Voit and push Stanton into an outfield corner and Judge into CF.

They acquire Gallo which looks good on paper except that there is nowhere to play him other than by moving Judge to CF. And Gallo stops hitting (not Cashman's fault), striking out in half his AB as a Yankee.

This roster needs a major reconfiguration this off-season. They need a SS. They need a CF. They probably need a 1B. They need to figure out what's going at 2B. If Torres can't help you defensively anywhere on the field, how much longer do you wait for his bat to return and how much do you shift players out of position to accommodate him?

92-93 - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#406912) #
It's so nice seeing the team shuffle through relievers for the last roster spot instead of carrying an extra arm that pitches once a week. Borucki last pitched on Friday and his line looks pretty ugly since his return from injury - 4ip 4h 3er 4bb 5k. It's a fresh pen tonight, only Merryweather, Pearson, and Stripling are down.

Yanks are down 5-0 in the 5th. A loss would take some pressure off tonight's Jays game.


Mike Green - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#406913) #
The Yankees were an oddly configured team to start the season and are paying for it. No competent SS. Two second basemen in LeMahieu and Torres, one a good glove and one not so good

I can only imagine how painful it must be for Yankee fans to look north and see Marcus Semien here on a pillow contract. 
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#406914) #
Do the yanks even have much payroll wiggle room next year?
Chuck - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#406915) #
Bill James spoke disparagingly of organizations whose talent clumps up on the left end of the defensive spectrum. That is the current Yankees.
Chuck - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#406916) #
Do the yanks even have much payroll wiggle room next year?

They may have to choose between being competitive and paying luxury tax.

Chuck - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#406917) #
Well that was poorly worded! I'm sure they'd choose being competitive over paying luxury tax. Of course I meant that being competitive might only be possible by returning to a luxury tax situation.
Nigel - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#406918) #
re: the Yankees and Torres. It reminds me of the Jays and Gurriel as a MI from a few years ago. Sometimes you stick with an idea for waaaaaayyyy too long because it would just answer so many questions and solve so many problems if only...... Sometimes its a rock and not an oyster and the sooner you chin yourself to that the better.
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#406919) #
The Yankees have $130 million committed next year to Cole, Stanton, LeMahieu, Hicks, Chapman, Severino, and Odor (!). Judge, Gallo, Sanchez, Taillon, and Green are in their last arbitration year before hitting free agency - that group earned almost $30 million in 2021 and I would expect an arbitrator would certainly give Judge and Gallo more for 2022. Voit, Urshela, Torres, Montgomery continue to be arbitration eligible - they made about $15 million this season. Next year, those 16 players will cost roughly $200 million, and I still don't see a shortstop or a centre fielder.

Oh, they'll probably figure something out.
greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#406920) #
Judge three-run HR, game tied 5-5
John Northey - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#406922) #
The Yankees Payroll is adjusting as follows...

Free Agents: Rizzo ($16.5), Kluber ($11), Heaney ($6.75), Luetge (under $1 mil), 2 minor option guys (making sub $3 mil each) Joely Rodriguez, Darren O'Day.

Arbitration: First Year: Loaisiga, Higashioka, Locastro, Holmes, Andujar, German, Wade
Second Year: Frazier, Torres, Voit
3rd Year: Judge, Sanchez, Gallo, Urshela, Taillon, Green, Montgomery, Peralta

Most to save via losing FA's: $34 maybe $35 mil. Safe to say all those guys in arbitration will eat that up quickly. Judge should get a big jump from his current $10 mil, Sanchez should go up a few mil from his just over $6 and others will go up too.

My bet is, outside of trades, the Yankees will go after 1 or 2 free agents and blow past the tax level. I expect the tax to start at a much higher figure unless the PA really folds quickly this winter. If the owners get their way with a $180 mil level then the Yankees are screwed royally as will be the Dodgers and a few others.

Funny, for the Jays a big owner win in negotiations would be fantastic. A 29 1/2 year old free agency would work great for the Jays with Vlad & Bo but hurt with Teoscar (FA after 2022 then). A $180 mil cap would also work great (hurt the Yanks & Red Sox) but could hurt in a few years. It'll be interesting to see what happens this winter.
Chuck - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#406923) #
I thought Texas was paying the entirety of Odor's remaining contract (in 2021 and 2022), save for the league minimum that the Yankees must contribute.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#406924) #
For the record I would still much rather laugh at the red Sox missing the playoffs than at the Yankees.

Hopefully, Oakland passes them both.
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#406927) #
I thought Texas was paying the entirety of Odor's remaining contract (in 2021 and 2022)

Ah. You are correct, sir. Brian Cashman.... not so dumb after all.
BlueJayWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#406928) #
Sigh. I don't know why this happens so often. I try to post something and it comes up blank. Trying again here....that article uglyone posted is really good, especially how the better offences are not as correlated with high pitch counts as in the past. Instead of 'take and rake' the approach the Jays and some other good lineups are taking is 'swing the bat and rake'. I hope this trend continues because that's much more fun to watch.
John Northey - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#406929) #
What would be funniest is having Seattle sneak in with the Jays. By WAA the Jays are #1 in the AL and Seattle is #9. Red Sox, A's, Yankees are 5-6-7 (2-3-4 are Houston, Chicago, Tampa). So you'd have a 1 game win or go home between the strongest possible team and the weakest possible for the playoffs. Seattle is actually negative for WAA overall.

Jays are #3 both for Pitchers WAA and Hitters WAA. Jays negative positions (sub average) are 3B (shocking), CF (sigh - would be way above if Springer had been healthy), and PH. CA is at 0.0, relief pitching 0.3 (5th in AL).
John Northey - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#406930) #
Agreed BlueJayWay - the Jays also showed this weekend that they know enough to take when the pitcher has no idea where the strike zone is (21 walks over 4 games, 8 in the 22 run game). Smart aggressive hitting. Much like Cito used to teach - go after your pitch, don't let it get away as it could be on pitch 1 or pitch 10 of an AB. If you don't like it let it go until at 2 strikes.
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#406931) #
Sigh. I don't know why this happens so often.

I don't know why it happens either, but I've sometimes learned to see it coming. I'll click on "Preview" to see how it looks, and a blank window pops up. I've learned I probably shouldn't try posting it.

An occasional workaround when that happens is - before attempting to post - to hit back page in the browser, copy and paste the planned post into Notepad, and then refresh the browser. Copy from Notepad into the browser and post without previewing. A pain in the butt, but it's the Internet. I've come to expect that sort of thing.

I also generally switch from Chrome to Firefox if I'm doing anything more complicated than... well, this! Or reading.
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#406932) #
All this counsel is probably useless to those of you working from your phones, but I'm old school. Phones are for sending text messages and listening to music.
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#406933) #
Damn Yankees.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#406934) #
Find that sometimes just copy your post, go to the preview, then post it in the preview window and then post.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#406935) #
".that article uglyone posted is really good, especially how the better offences are not as correlated with high pitch counts as in the past. Instead of 'take and rake' the approach the Jays and some other good lineups are taking is 'swing the bat and rake'. I hope this trend continues because that's much more fun to watch."

I also like the part about how current pitcher usage pretty much blunts much of the effectiveness of trying to max out pitcher's pitch counts to get them out of the game as a strategy.
92-93 - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#406936) #
The Yankees '21 payroll is pretty similar to what they were spending in '04-05, which is remarkable when you consider how much ticket prices have risen since then. They can snap their fingers at any time and start spending like the Dodgers though, so let's not get too excited about their constraints.

Could the disappearing text be related to copyright issues in Chrome? It happens when you try to grab something from an article.
jerjapan - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#406937) #
Magpie, you seem to have fine taste in rum.
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#406938) #
It happens when you try to grab something from an article.

That's not the issue when it happens to me. And I never copy anything directly anyway - it always goes into Notepad first, to eliminate all the native formatting.

Native Formatting. What a concept!
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#406940) #
Magpie, you seem to have fine taste in rum.

It's entirely theoretical. Haven't actually tasted a drop of the stuff since I was a teenager, which was... uh, Days of Yore. The Before Times.
John Northey - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#406941) #
This contract negotiation between owners and players will be very big for the Jays. Multiple possibilities...
  • 2 new teams and radical realignment (moved to a new division with Detroit and others, away from the Yankees/Red Sox) is a big one
  • Owners proposal - $180 mil tax level, minimum payroll of $100 mil, 29 1/2 free agency - big boost for the Jays there, although it would push the Rays to spend more which would hurt
  • Players will push for a higher tax level - IE: starting at $250 or higher, earlier free agency maybe (they tend to want to keep it limited) all would hurt the Jays if staying in a Yankee/Red Sox division
Lots of interesting possibilities. Hard to know what will happen. My hope is realignment so we compete with Detroit, Cleveland, and others who are mid-payroll. Much easier than the nuclear division with the Yanks/Red Sox/Rays. After this past weekend many will really want Yankees/Mets in the same division - boy that got nasty didn't it? Now imagine those 2 fighting for a playoff spot against each other or meeting in the early rounds. Have the Red Sox in that division too with Philly (big bucks) and you have a division with a $200 mil entry fee for payroll. An age based free agency would be nice to see too - much easier to work with, no more holding guys back - teams now would have an incentive to call them up ASAP.
jerjapan - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#406942) #
You had El Dorado recently.  that stuff is great.  but good for you man. 

Anyone else finding themselves increasingly confident in Romano and Mayza?  The pen is so much better right now and I agree with 92-93, the team is doing a much better job with the 8th man.  None of these guys would be a legit loss if DFAed, but cycling through them keeps a fresh arm ready.
BlueJayWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#406943) #
When I Preview posts, they'll be there, but then when I submit they often disappear. I'm using Firefox.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#406944) #
Not just previewed - they need to be in the text box below as well.
Petey Baseball - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#406945) #
Brett Phillips leading off? Cash might be watering down the lineup a bit for his good friend Charlie.
John Northey - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#406946) #
BlueJayWay - when you preview look at the 'Comment' box below and make sure the text is there, if not then hit your browser's 'back' button and you'll see the text and can hit submit and be OK. An annoying bug that can't be fixed at this time (the guy who wrote the code for the site doesn't have the time to fix it).
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#406947) #
Pat mentioned that Manoah has been absolute murder on righties this year.

TB vRHP

1. Lowe 156wrc+
2. Phillips 143
3. Meadows 138
4. Choi 137
5. Wendle 126
6. Cruz 124
7. Arazorena 111
8. Mejia 107
9. Diaz 106
10. Kiermaier 102

And all those guys are in the lineup other than the banged up Lowe.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#406948) #
Wow nasty nasty pitch.
Eephus - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#406949) #
Oh no.... I tune in just in time to see Yarbrough ENTER the game... c’mon reverse jinx.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#406950) #
Bad approach by Vlad. He swung at 3 balls, none of which were close
greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#406951) #
Bloody Yarbrough. Bases loaded, one out, Semien and Vladdy due up. Opportunities against the Rays don’t get much better than that. Somehow he wriggled out of it.
greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#406952) #
On the plus side, Manoah has looked great so far.
BlueJayWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#406953) #
Bad approach by Vlad. He swung at 3 balls, none of which were close

Lefties with good changeups = Vlad's heading back to the dugout. He hasn't figured them out yet.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#406954) #
Agree Greenfrog. This is the best I’ve seen from Manoah. He has command of everything and outstanding movement tonight
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#406955) #
Finally Teoscar shows them how to hit that outside BS.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#406956) #
There is no pennant hanging above the Jumbotron for the 2020 post-season berth. (Based upon a photo from the Homecoming ceremony.)

The other pennants display "Champs" for the various titles. I suppose last year's playoff appearance was not precisely a minor championship.

greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#406957) #
Capitalize now.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#406958) #
Bonus point to Montoyo on ye Olde run'n'hit there.

Also on the perfectly used 4-man OF earlier (which Buck would have had a stroke about).
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#406959) #
We just Ray'd the Rays.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#406960) #
Gurriel is flat out destroying the baseball. Awesome to see and right when the team needed it the most
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#406961) #
Very nice at bat, Randal.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#406962) #
One more hit here Valera.
greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#406963) #
Love it when Grichuk contributes offensively in key games.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#406964) #
Valera the RBI man!
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#406965) #
Stomp. The. Neck.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#406966) #
Ump saves the pitcher who couldn't find the zone. Nice.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#406967) #
Hmm. Maybe extend teoscar.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#406968) #
Always loved me some Breyvic!
Magpie - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#406969) #
Bo looked like Vlad Sr on that homer.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#406970) #
13 hits 7 runs....and the top 3rd of the order is 0 fer 9.
greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#406971) #
What should the Jays do about Springer? Keep DHing him every day? Give him some days off for rest + physio? If the Jays are going to make a run, it would help to have him productive and not hobbled.
Eephus - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#406972) #
In my wildest fantasies I did not expect Yarbrough to surrender as many runs as outs recorded.

Oh well, I'll just be cackling in the corner.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#406973) #
Pure filth.
grjas - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#406974) #
I have wondered the same thing about Springer. Given how Jansen is hitting, might be best to have both him and Kirk in games as either DH or C until Springer has improved. His HR the other day gave hope, but…

The turnaround of the last half of the lineup has really made a difference this month.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#406975) #
Lowest launch angle hr ever?
rafael - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#406976) #
What to do with Springer: just keep him on the bench until their trailing by a run in the 9th. In the unlikely event it happens again this year
BlueJayWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#406977) #
That Vladdy home run may have defied physics.
SK in NJ - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#406978) #
It's only one game, but dominating the Rays is such a nice thing to see, especially Yarborough who has killed the Jays in the past. This team is on some kind of roll right now.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#406979) #
Our team so good that I'm not even made about another Kiermaier steal of a HR.
Petey Baseball - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#406980) #
The looks on the faces of the Rays players and coaches isn't typical of a team 35 games above .500 and 8.5 ahead in first place.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#406981) #
Manoah for ROY?
greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#406982) #
Fangraphs just posted an article on the Jays’ incredible run.
92-93 - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#406983) #
Would love to know why Richards is in this game and not Borucki or Cimber.
SK in NJ - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#406984) #
I'm going to try to stay positive here, because really this was a beautiful game to watch as a Jays fan, but using Richards in a 8-0 game when it was the absolute perfect spot to use Borucki is mind boggling.
greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#406985) #
I’m OK with it. Every game is a must-win game now, and the Rays are a top-notch team that has plagued the Blue Jays for years. Montoyo is entitled to lock down the win with a decent reliever following an 8 IP performance from his SP. The bullpen is still very rested, with Romano, Mayza, Cimber, Pearson and Merryweather all available to work tomorrow. And the Jays have two quality durable starters (Berrios and Ray) starting the next two days.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#406986) #
Yeah rays are no joke. Using your 4th or 5th best rp is fine. No need to tempt fate.

Anyways, world series here we come.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#406987) #
If the jays had turned that DP Manoah would have come out for the 9th.

I lost my mind when Montoyo kept yanking good starters in close games on 89-90 pitches.... but pulling him on 97 pitches in a blowout is fine and smart imo.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#406988) #
Jays just roared ahead of the rays in run differential, btw. 4 behind the stros.
uglyone - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#406989) #

Alek Manoah is the FIRST pitcher in Blue Jays history to throw 8+ scoreless innings and allow no more than one hit with 0 BB and 10+ Ks.

He's a rookie.

— Jason Catania (@JayCat11) September 14, 2021
greenfrog - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#406990) #
M’s are rallying against Boston in the first. Runners at the corners, none out.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#406991) #
Kiermaier made a great catch but I think it would have hit the top of the wall if he missed it.

If the Jays split their remaining games, 9-9, they would have 90 wins. 12-6, quite possible, would be 93 wins. Enough for 1st wildcard position?

Manoah had a great game. In hindsight he should have been number 1 on the prospect list entering the season. Gurriel and Hernandez are red-hot. Good job the Jays didn't trade them, which some people have suggested doing over the past few years.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#406992) #
Can this team score more than 7 runs per game over their next 18 games to outscore the 2015 team?

My first impression was no, but on second thought it doesn’t seem crazy
Thomas - Monday, September 13 2021 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#406993) #
John, we never received an answer on why you use "CA"? (Or if you did, I completely missed it.)

I was at today's game. It was a lot of fun. The crowd's really into it. It does definitely have a 2015 vibe in the air.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#406994) #
I only use CA as a short form for catcher like 1B for first baseman.
Eephus - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 02:24 AM EDT (#406995) #
Yarbrough? More like "take him yard, bro"

I admit that would've been funnier several hours ago. If it was ever funny.
scottt - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 05:54 AM EDT (#406996) #
That was not high leverage enough for Cimber.
Borucki? I am not sure. He's not really shown enough in AAA to earn his spot back.
Maybe he's here against the Rays in case they can find him an inning with 2 or more lefties.
He's replacing guys who were used as long relief.

Nick Anderson throwing 92mph fastball?
Was that rehabbing exercise a failure or wasn't Anderson a fireballer?

Boston lose. Yeah.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#406997) #
The Blue Jay pitching is pretty good too, eh?  It's pretty clear that the top three relievers are Romano, Mayza and Cimber, with Soria now edging Richards for the 4th spot based on current and past performance. 

The decision to use Richards last night in a 8-0 game in the ninth made sense to me in the context of Sunday's blowout and the day off on Thursday.  There's really very little risk of running out of arms today and tomorrow; Richards would be available in a pinch tomorrow in any event.  Cimber threw 1.2 innings on Friday and has logged 62.2 innings for the year.  I am pretty sure that he'll get an inning today, but you want him to be relatively fresh for the playoffs.  Borucki would have been a reasonable option, but perhaps Montoyo would prefer to first use him against less challenging competition to ease him into it.  It may also be that he hasn't looked right in the bullpen. 

Team BaseRuns is a pretty good proxy for overall quality, by factoring out efficiency in run production (hitting with runners in scoring position etc.) and in win-loss (one-run game record and so on).  It's not perfect; performance when the game is out of reach is given equal weight to performance when it isn't.  By BaseRuns, the Blue Jays would have scored 5.39 runs per game (first in MLB) and allowed 4.31 runs per game (6th in the AL).  That would be good for a record of 87-57, three games ahead of the Rays (nine ahead of the Yankees and thirteen ahead of the Red Sox), and two and a half behind the Astros. Alas, even using season-to-date measures, the Blue Jays have only a 2.5% chance of catching Rays (but an 8% chance of winning a World Series).  More offerings to Jobu are clearly in order. 
bpoz - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#406999) #
Manoah seems to have it all. Confidence, aggressive, don't know about swagger yet. Oh and he can pitch!!
cascando - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#407000) #
Yarbrough? More like "take him yard, bro" I admit that would've been funnier several hours ago. If it was ever funny

I liked it.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#407001) #
The Drew Rasmussen story is a nice example of how the Rays work.  You can read about his history up to 2020 here.  (Aside: if you follow the link, you'll see a quick story  "Milwaukee Brewers place Rowdy Tellez on the 10 day IL with a right patella strain, recall Luke Maile" which gave me Socrates Brito and Alen Hanson flashbacks).  The Rays drafted him in the first round in 2017, but didn't sign him because of injury concerns.  They were right and he went through a second TJ. Milwaukee drafted him in 2017 in the 6th round.  He went up through the minors in 2019, with good stuff and K rates and tolerable control.  In 2021, he started the season in the Brewers' bullpen, pitching to a 4.24 ERA with 12 walks and 25 strikeouts in 17 innings.  He came over to the Rays with Feyereisen in the Adames trade.  The Rays sent him down to Durham where the Rays must have done something- he threw 11 innings, walking 2, giving up 5 hits and striking out 23.  Needless to say the Rays called him up, and he's been money since with 11 walks and 40 strikeouts in 44 innings. 

When was the last time a pitcher came up with the Rays who had a significant control issue?  They seem to insist that their pitchers figure that out in the minors. 
bpoz - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#407004) #
Willy Adames is having a fantastic season for Milwaukee. TB paid a high price. TB also traded M Liberatore for R Arozarena another high cost trade.
grjas - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#407005) #
Should be a fascinating end to the regular season. Three very streaky teams who can beat anyone while hot and almost no one when not. And two more teams at the edges.

Given this streakiness, I don't think strength of remaining schedule is as important as who gets (or stays!) hot. And as both the Jays and Yankees have shown over the last 6 weeks, recent success is not always a predictor of near-future success.

No matter how it ends, it should be an interesting ride.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#407006) #
Where the Wild Things Are...

7:07 - Tampa Bay (Drew Rasmussen) vs. Toronto (José Berríos)
7:05 - NY Yankees (Gerrit Cole) vs. Baltimore (Alexander Wells)
8:10 - Oakland (Frankie Montas) vs. Kansas City (Jackson Kowar)
10:10 - Boston (Nathan Eovaldi) vs. Seattle (Tyler Anderson)

6:35 - Cincinnati (Wade Miley) vs. Pittsburgh (Dillon Peters)
7:05 - Chicago Cubs (Adrian Sampson) vs. Philadelphia (Kyle Gibson)
7:20 - Colorado (Jon Gray) vs. Atlanta (Touki Toussaint)
7:10 - St. Louis (Jake Woodford) vs. NY Mets (Marcus Stroman)
9:45 - San Diego (Jake Arrieta) vs. San Francisco (Anthony DeSclafani)
10:10 - Arizona (Luke Weaver) vs. LA Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin)

Thomas - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#407007) #
I only use CA as a short form for catcher like 1B for first baseman.

I know. :) But I was wondering where that came from. You're the only person I've seen who does this and none of the major websites use it (such as MLB.com). Everywhere else uses the singular "C".

You're obviously a knowledgeable baseball fan, so I assume it came from somewhere, but I'm just curious what the source is.

Thomas - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#407008) #
Playoff odds are up over 70% at Fangraphs.
Jonny German - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#407009) #
Borrowing from @james_in_to on twitter… if the Jays go 10-8 the rest of the way, 2 of the following will have to happen for the Jays to miss the playoffs:

New York 12-6
Boston 11-5
Seattle 14-4
Oakland 15-4
uglyone - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#407010) #
I have them right around....100%.

grjas - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#407011) #
Playoff odds are up over 70% at Fangraphs.

I suspect these are about as accurate as a long term weather forecast. They certainly bounce around as frequently.

Regardless, kudos to the Jays for their resiliency. They may be streaky but they certainly never give up or stop believing in themselves.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#407012) #
I was advocating a would still trade Gurriel in the same packages I was proposing. That was Gurriel + for a controllable top tier pitcher, like Berrios if he is signed through 2025. I make that deal 8 days a week. Pitching is too hard to find and we have offence to spare. Nothing against Gurriel but he is very streaky and I would rather keep Groshans, Moreno, Martinez level prospects in the farm. I would look for the Jays to resign Berrios and trade Gurriel for similar pitcher with more control if they can’t resign Ray.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#407013) #
I have them right around....100%.

I have the immortal words of Winston Wolf echoing in my head.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#407014) #
Thomas: CA probably comes from some older things I've used - plus using 2 letters matches up with every other position. 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF/CF/RF/OF/SP/RP/UT - I think we all know what those stand for. Plain old P for pitcher is used as a generic for both starters and relievers We could go to 1 letter across the board I guess - C/1/2/3/S/L/C/R/O/U/R - but shortstop and starter use the same letter. Maybe T for 'sTarter'. Nah. 2 letters is easy enough.
electric carrot - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#407015) #
I have them right around....100%.

It always seemed to me this team had the tools to go on a winning streak like this. They have great hitting, fantastic starters (esp since addition of Manoah and Berrios) and relief pitching that was due for some luck. But they just never actually did do it till now.

So yippee! It's fun to be a fan again. Thanks to the front office for those deadline trades and for their faith in Manoah.

100% seems a bit high. But whether they make it or not I think the trades are worth it either way.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#407016) #
plus using 2 letters matches up with every other position.

I now find myself doing something similar, except with three letters, for all the teams - instead of something tried and true like "KC" for "Kansas City" I'm using "KCR." Partially because it makes it easier to line up the columns in a Data Table, and because we of course have several multi-team cities, meaning "NY" and "LA" no longer tell the tale.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#407017) #
It always seemed to me this team had the tools to go on a winning streak like this. They have great hitting, fantastic starters (esp since addition of Manoah and Berrios) and relief pitching that was due for some luck. But they just never actually did do it till now.

Another thing to keep in mind when judging the team's record is that they are 18-7 in their actual true home games. They are 22-22 in their other "home" games which took place in a Spring Training facility and Minor League Stadium respectively, in two different states (and obviously a different country). It's hard to quantify what the team's record would have been had they played in RC all season, but I can't imagine the mental grind of what they had to endure from April-July was easy on them. That's what makes this run all the more remarkable. Hopefully it does lead to a playoff appearance because they would have earned it.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#407018) #
Of course the flip side is that having 3 homes this year bonded the team more so than anything else could've and is part of why they are so close and doing so well now.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#407019) #
If we're doing heartwarming chemistry stories to warm the cockles of my stats-based heart then I think it was sportsnet that had a nice piece on the rotation all watching each other warm up and walking out together.

scottt - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#407020) #
Rasmussen has topped at 74 pitches so far.
80 sounds like a fair limit.

The Rays are really good at getting the platoon advantage.
Ray and Manoah don't care but it's going to be a huge challenge for Berrios.

Spifficus - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#407021) #
I think being good at getting a platoon advantage experiences diminishing returns against a team like Toronto.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#407022) #
So 2 games vs Tampa - Berrios-Ray, day off, 4 vs Twins (Ryu-Matz-Manoah-Berrios), Day off, 3 vs Yankees (Ray-Ryu-Matz), 3 vs O's (Manoah-Berrios-Ray). I think that is the rotation. If the Jays clinch then Ray gets that final day off so he can pitch in the WC game, or game 1 of the ALDS if the Jays can stay super-hot and get ahead of the Rays. If the last games matters then there is a day off before the WC which means Ryu or Matz could pitch that game instead. The Jays could put Ray against the Twins instead of Berrios thanks to that day off, then using that day off again you could have him pitch the opener vs O's, 3 days rest, WC game but I don't see that happening or much advantage to it.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#407024) #
FYI: just checked and Ray has pitched on 3 days rest once, his rookie season of 2014, went 3 1/3 IP 9 H 7 R/ER 4 BB 1 SO 1 HR and was demoted after it. So that didn't work. I don't see the Jays doing that to him now.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#407025) #
I think you're getting ahead of yourself there, John. Today's the 14th, not the 21st. Your schedule describes the "end of the season" just fine, assuming you're starting on the 21st. You need to insert before that:2 vs Rays, 3 vs. Twins, 1 vs Rays (or change your 2 to a 3). Yes, there's some symmetry / repetition - both Rays series are Mon-Wed in consecutive weeks.

We have 18 games left, not 12 (as per your summary).
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#407026) #
Rasmussen has been very good in his recent starts (albeit for four or five innings). The Jays are going to have to figure out how to get to him.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#407027) #
vw_fan17 - geez, I thought it seemed light. I am getting old. Ah well. Too soon to get too worried about the end anyways. The point about using Ray on short rest stands regardless - I'm sure some will push for it as the days get short. All 5 are doing fairly well outside of Ryu who needs extra rest at this point it seems. He might need to be kept to a 5 day off schedule next year, and shuffle everyone else around it - on 5 days rest he has a 2.61 ERA this year, vs 5.64 on 4 days (normal rest), and 4.11 on long rest (6+). Worth looking at for 2022 and the rest of 2021 if possible.

In September we see Matz 4.24 ERA in 3 starts, Manoah 4.34 in 3 starts, Ray 2.45 in 2 starts, Berrios 3.38 in 2 starts, Ryu 7.56 in 2 starts. So only Ray really doing great and Berrios very good. Manoah and Matz are meh while Ryu is 'ugh'. Hatch has a 2.25 in his start (4 IP, 1 run).
92-93 - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#407028) #
If the rotation were to stay in its current order and not miss a beat then the final series will feature Berrios/Ray/Ryu. Manoah would be on regular rest for the AL Wild Card, which is scheduled for the Tuesday after the season finishes. The starting pitcher matters much less when it's one game, all hands on deck. Severino got knocked out a few years ago after getting only one out and the Yankees still won the game.

The Jays are going to clinch a playoff spot before that final series, though.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#407029) #
First time through the order, the Jays’ approach against Rasmussen hasn’t been all that great.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#407031) #
With this pen, it gets late early against the Rays. They are going to be really hard to beat in a playoff series.
Eephus - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#407032) #
Rays be Rays-ing as usual. Their ability to spin pitching straw into gold is commendable.

Well, perhaps “commendable” is a distant second place to “severely annoying”. That feels more right.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#407033) #
Time to do it Jobu!!
electric carrot - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#407034) #
Oh yes, this is what losing feels like. Nearly forgot.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#407035) #
Don't like this feeling. Please don't let us get Ray'd tommorrow.
The_Game - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#407036) #
Might be time to find a manager for next year that will pinch hit 130 wRC+ Alejandro Kirk for Breyvic Valera or Reese McGuire in a 2 run deficit in the 8th inning. Or better yet, someone who will actually start Kirk over your 3rd catcher in the middle of a tight playoff race.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#407037) #
I think this is what happens when you start thinking there's no doubt the team will be in the playoffs, who's going to get the start.... the game will straighten you out, it doesn't like to hear that stuff.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 14 2021 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#407038) #
Yeah, I don't get starting McGuire in a playoff race. He is the #3 catcher without a doubt and needs to be used that way. Starting him is like starting Dyson - both have use off the bench, but giving them extra PA right now is a mistake even if he did get 1 of the 3 hits tonight. Wonder if he and Berrios have a 'thing' or something - ie: Berrios feels comfortable throwing to McGuire.

Ah well. 2-0 is a game where you probably weren't pulling it out unless Kirk had a 3 HR game (very unlikely). The Vlad PA in the 4th with 2 on and 0 out was the big moment, then Bo & Hernandez both making outs. One hit there and the game would've been tied and who knows what happens next.
Michael - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#407039) #
There was good defense all around based on the condensed game, but it did seem like TB got away with trapping a hit as an out in CF. It was close, but it looked like it bounced in slo-mo. Still, good defense seems to be something TB always provides.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 07:31 AM EDT (#407040) #
The only thing I didn’t like was seeing Bo batting clean up. He’s can be very aggressive as a hitter and he was wild at the plate yesterday. Did Montoyo put him on clean up duty because he hit some home runs on the weekend? He looks much better batting 1/2/3, no reason to bat him behind Vlad, especially in the chase for a triple crown…or is Montoyo trying to get Vladdy extra ABs? I really like Springer at the top and Vlad/Teo for 4/5.

Jonny German - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#407041) #
I think this is what happens when you start thinking there's no doubt the team will be in the playoffs, who's going to get the start.... the game will straighten you out, it doesn't like to hear that stuff.

Conveniently tho, the Jays are in a position where lining up Robbie Ray for the Wild Card game works well with maximizing the effort to reach the Wild Card game. The way to do it is to keep Ray on his regular 4 days rest regardless of off days.

Ray's schedule would be thus:
Today - Tampa
20th - at Tampa
25th - at Minnesota
30th - Yankees
October 5th - potential Wild Card
John Northey - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#407042) #
Fangraphs playoff odds are weird. They have the Red Sox at 70.8%, Jays and Yankees at 62.5% each. Obviously at least one of those 3 won't be in. The A's and Mariners are sub 3% now. Using this seasons stats only the Jays are at 74.6%, Red Sox 68.7%, Yankees 47.5%. Jays have 7 games left with playoff contenders (4 vs Rays, 3 vs Yankees) and 10 vs last place teams (7 vs Twins, 3 vs O's). The Twins are 64-82, O's 46-98. Only Baltimore & Texas have real shots at 100 losses in the AL this year, Arizona & Pittsburgh in the NL. In 2019 we had 4 teams lose 100+ (Detroit, Baltimore, KC and Miami).
scottt - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#407043) #
Springer wants to hit lead off, that's what he was hired for.
Semien does not want to be moved in the order.
Vlad has to be in the top 3. He's the team MVP.
Bo hits the same anywhere.
It's been Bo, Hernandez for most of the year.
Bo swings at bad pitches and fouls them.
Sometimes he get caught chasing a pitch he can't reach.
Maybe he'll get better at it, this is his first full year.

Just winning the series would be amazing.
It still looks like 91 wins is enough to sneak in.

The main reason not to use Kirk is because he's starting a day game today.
That was a very good game from McGuire. One hit. Only 2 home runs by the other side.
 

uglyone - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#407044) #
I would move Bo down, not up.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#407045) #
The Jays need to show that they can beat TB.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#407046) #
Let's just try not to tempt the wrath of the... whatever. From high atop the thing.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#407047) #
These are the kinds of battles we have to win to beat the Rays, imo:

A short thread on Tampa's game-to-game adjustments on Monday & Tuesday

First, the headlines:

Rays Pitches in Strike Zone
Monday: 43%
Tuesday: 58%*

*4th highest of the season for the Rays
*Highest for Rays vs Blue Jays during Kevin Cash's tenure (122 games)

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) September 15, 2021

A big change came with two strikes:

Jays Hitters with 2 Strikes:
Mon: 9-20, 2 K, .700 slug, 38% in zone, 24% breakers

Tues: 1-14, 6 K, .071 slug, 45% in zone, 72% breakers

Jays seemed prepared for how Yarbrough was gonna try to get them out (soft & chase). Tampa adjusted. pic.twitter.com/9MhlaFqu1O

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) September 15, 2021

Overall, Jays hitters saw more than 50% breakers/cutters last night, the highest percentage they've seen of those in over a month.

7 of the 8 pitches Marcus Semien saw with 2 strikes were sliders or curves. All 4 of Bo Bichette's 2-strike pitches were as well.

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) September 15, 2021

But I thought it was interesting, while most Jays hitters got a heavy dose of breakers, they went hard with Vladdy Jr.

10 of 14 pitches, including 9 of 11 when count was even or in Vlad's favour. Highest percentage he's seen in those situations since June. pic.twitter.com/RuEpcs5W06

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) September 15, 2021

So Monday, Rays give up season-high 9 two-strike hits (tied for most ever allowed by a Kevin Cash team). Jays hitters seemed very comfortable

Tuesday, Cash trots out a bunch of righties throwing fastball/slider/curve & challenges the Jays hitters all night

Love the cat & mouse

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) September 15, 2021
Thomas - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#407048) #
I'm not going to get upset about McGuire starting only his second game since Jansen's return yesterday. FWIW (which may not be much as I'm not claiming he is as good a hitter as either of them), he has a higher OBP against righties this year than Kirk or Jansen. I suspect he won't start again for at least another week or so and will only be used to catch if the team has pinch-run for the catcher with Dyson.

I also don't understand why they didn't challenge the liner he hit that looked like it was trapped by Margot. There may not have been conclusive evidence to overturn the call on the field, but given the stage of the game, I thought that was worthy of a challenge.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#407049) #
Jays getting the National Media love. Here's a full (and surprisingly informative) segment on them from MLB network:

https://youtu.be/CKL41h19zLg

I legit learned something new in every segment there. I especially liked the part about Bo's defense.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#407050) #
A sunny afternoon in Toronto. Alejandro Kirk catching Robbie Ray. Heavenly.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#407051) #
Today is Roberto Clemente Day. World Series MVP. The Great One.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#407052) #
Fangraphs has the 2nd half of a two part series on the season's worst bunts, 10 in all.  There are no Blue Jay efforts among the lot.  Bunting without representation is tyranny. 
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#407053) #
I guess there weren't enough swing votes to make a difference.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#407054) #
I'm not going to get upset about McGuire starting only his second game since Jansen's return yesterday.

If I were Montoyo, I wouldn't be using the next two weeks to try out various pitcher-catcher pairings. There are combinations that have worked, and combinations that haven't worked. And when it's a wash, just play the better hitter. Kirk can catch Ray, Manoah, and Matz. Jansen can catch Ryu and Berrios. If you want to get McGuire a game, he can catch Berrios, Matz, or Manoah. Combinations that will be avoided are things like Kirk-Berrios, Jansen-Matz, McGuire-Ryu.

At any rate, this probably isn't the time to experiment.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#407055) #
Here's a clickable link (Internet skillz, I haz them) to the MLB network piece the Not-So-Handsome one mentioned, and I agree that Reynolds on Bichette's defense was especially useful.
Paul D - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#407056) #
Excellent, nice to get off to a good start after yesterday's game.
Eephus - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#407057) #
Springer is just a gamer, man.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#407058) #
I guess there weren't enough swing votes to make a difference.

Solid.  Now if they ever voted on the worst team bunting, the Jays would surely be a contenda.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#407059) #
if they ever voted on the worst team bunting, the Jays would surely be a contenda.

Still, chances are that some of the 24 teams that have bunted more often than the Jays will be leading the way.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#407060) #
Dominant performance from Ray so far. Looking forward to at least 1 more inning of this today
uglyone - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#407061) #
Turns into a nice opportunity for Romano to get a nice clean save against the gd rays.



Nice series. Could have been a sweep.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#407062) #
Pitching, defense and a three-run home run. Earl Weaver would have approved.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#407063) #
If the team is planning to a) flip Berrios and Manoah this weekend, and b) keep Ray going out there every fifth day, we would see something like this (Days of Rest in parentheses):

Fr 17 MIN Ryu-Jansen (6)
Sa 18 MIN Matz-Kirk (6) day game
Su 19 MIN Berrios-Jansen (5) day game
Mo 20 TBR Ray-Kirk (5)
Tu 21 TBR Manoah-Kirk (8)
We 22 TBR Ryu-Jansen (5) day game
Th 23 MIN Matz-Kirk (5)
Fr 24 MIN Berrios-Jansen (5)
Sa 25 MIN Ray-Kirk (5)
Su 26 MIN Manoah-McGuire (5) day game
Mo 27 off
Tu NYY 28 Ryu-Jansen (6)
We NYY 29 Berrios-Jansen (5)
Th NYY 30 Ray-Kirk (5)
Fr BAL 1 Matz-Kirk (8)
Sa BAL 2 Manoah-Kirk (6) day game
Su BAL 3 Ryu-Jansen (5) day game

The Berrios-Manoah switch and keeping Ray on 5 days bumps Manoah to an 8 day break; the off-day on the 27th and keeping Ray on 5 days does the same to Matz later on. McGuire ends up filling in for Kirk on Manoah's start on the 26th (day game after Kirk catches Ray the night before.)
Nigel - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#407064) #
That makes a lot of sense and accomplishes both getting Ray aligned to best possible effect and splits Manoah and Berrios. Two of three from TB is an excellent outcome.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#407065) #
The Jays passed the Rays test. The SPs were fantastic. The pen was ok.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#407066) #
Oops. McGuire also gets Manoah for the last Saturday against the Orioles (day game after a night game.)
scottt - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#407067) #
Ray > Rays
scottt - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#407068) #
If either Jansen or Kirk gets hurt, McGuire will have to step in.
A bit part of having 3 catchers is not running the 2 that got hurt and missed tons of games into the ground.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#407069) #
“It’s tough to make an argument that that’s not the best fastball going right now in the American League,” Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash said of Ray. “For the most part, he’s going to come at you with fastballs and pound the zone. And when it’s there, there’s really not a ton you can do with it.”
scottt - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#407070) #
Unless you're the lowly Orioles.
grjas - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#407071) #
Where would the Jays be without Romano? Huge stabilizer for a shaky bullpen. Glad to see a Canuck making a difference.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#407076) #
Hays just hit a two-run home run for Baltimore. 3-2 O’s over the Yankees in the eighth.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#407077) #
Orioles coming through in the clutch!
uglyone - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#407078) #
Ah come on you poopy bullpen don't blow this.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#407079) #
A pre-emptive "God I hate gardner"
uglyone - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#407080) #
God I hate Gardner.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 15 2021 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#407083) #
The same pitcher blew the first double header game on Saturday so it’s only fair he did the same for the Yankees.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#407084) #
The Jays-Yankees series at the end of September is going to be massive. I think this race is going to go down to the wire, with the Jays, Red Sox, and Yankees all playing tolerably well over the next 2+ weeks and keeping things close. With such a small sample of games, luck is going to play an ever-larger role.
Jonny German - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#407085) #
Besides keeping Ray on a 5-day schedule, I think it would also be a good move to have Stripling make a start against Minnesota this weekend so that Ryu has an extra day of rest for each of his remaining starts. That would line things up thus:

Fri Sep 17	 MIN	Ryu
Sat Sep 18	 MIN	Matz
Sun Sep 19	 MIN	Stripling
Mon Sep 20	@ TBR	Ray
Tue Sep 21	@ TBR	Berríos
Wed Sep 22	@ TBR	Manoah
Thu Sep 23	@ MIN	Ryu
Fri Sep 24	@ MIN	Matz
Sat Sep 25	@ MIN	Ray
Sun Sep 26	@ MIN	Berríos
Mon Sep 27		
Tue Sep 28	 NYY	Manoah
Wed Sep 29	 NYY	Ryu
Thu Sep 30	 NYY	Ray
Fri Oct  1	 BAL	Matz
Sat Oct  2	 BAL	Berríos
Sun Oct  3	 BAL	Manoah
Mon Oct  4		
Tue Oct  5	WC	Ray
85bluejay - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#407086) #
Red Sox have such an easy schedule, the Yankees series their only tough games.
85bluejay - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#407087) #
And the Red Sox have so many convenient off days - they are in the catbird seat for a WC spot.
scottt - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#407088) #
There's a Yankee fan on mlbtraderumors who's been calling him Brett Garbage for years.
He's the definition of Pesky. Never expend and try to make him chase. Just try to paint a corner and move the ball.

Boston has the easiest schedule but they are such an unknown quantity.
Even before half the team got Covid.

A's and Mariners are now completely out of it and must be starting their annual introspection.

Boston play the Yankees.
Jays play Rays and Yankees.
Yankees play Sox, Jays and Rays.

Jays can't take too long to get used to the Twins pitching.
I think playing them back to back helps the Jays.

It's weird that the Jays have the best rotation in the division.
It's not even close.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#407089) #
" luck is going to play an ever-larger role."

Like Gardner hitting a bloop, seeing-eye single with 2 outs in the ninth to score the eventual tying and winning runs?

Probably a stupid question but every time I watch a game now from the Rogers Center I wonder why, if the attendance is capped to under 15,000 for Covid reasons, why are people crammed together from behind home plate up to first base/third base and not evenly scattered around the stadium?
scottt - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#407090) #
I checked who broke the 3-3 tie in Seattle and saw that Boston had a 6 run 10th inning.
Figures.

John Northey - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#407094) #
Jammed together to look better on TV and to minimize security and vending costs while maximizing revenue (everyone wants behind home plate, lower level seats it seems). I've sat nearly everywhere possible since 1989 in that stadium, from right behind home plate almost, to the private boxes, to the stadium level, to the upper deck top row, I've eaten in the restaurant while Jays were warming up. You name it, I've sat there. With the only exception being the hotel.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#407096) #
I thought the point of having less people was to space them out more. In my mind, you may as well have more fans in attendance if you're going to do this.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, September 16 2021 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#407109) #
Fangraphs playoff odds are weird. They have the Red Sox at 70.8%, Jays and Yankees at 62.5% each. Obviously at least one of those 3 won't be in.

62.5 + 62.5 + 70.8 = 195.8% - for 2 slots, which equals a total of 200% slots available. That leaves 4.2% to split amongst the remaining teams (OAK, SEA, anyone else?).
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