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Batter's Box regular Mike Moffatt edits the About.com Guide to Economics, and has used the Blue Jays offseason as the basis of a feature on that site. Called "Baseball Players and Opportunity Costs", it examines the Toronto club's decision, questioned at the time by some fans, to non-tender a contract offer to Jose Cruz Jr.:

So we see that the Jays did not give up Jose Cruz for "nothing". Instead they gave up Jose Cruz and the opportunity to play 5 minor league players and received the opportunity to play Bordick, Catalanotto, Creek, Myers, Sturtze, and Tam instead. So when a team decides not to retain the services of the player, they always receive two things in return: the money it would have taken to retain the player, and the spot on the 25 man roster that the player would have taken.

There's even a poll, where you can vote on the following question: "Has General Manager J.P. Ricciardi used the concept of opportunity cost effectively when creating his roster of players?" I cast the second ballot, and it's unanimous so far.
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_Sean - Wednesday, February 19 2003 @ 08:19 PM EST (#95944) #
I cast the third ballot. It's still unanimous. :P
Pepper Moffatt - Wednesday, February 19 2003 @ 10:12 PM EST (#95945) #
http://economics.about.com
Thanks for linking this Coach!

I'd appreciate any comments or criticism you guys might have. I haven't linked this article anywhere on the site yet because I'm still not 100% satisfied with it.

Cheers,

Mike
Gitz - Thursday, February 20 2003 @ 12:50 AM EST (#95946) #
Looking at that list of players above, the Jays basically traded Cruz for an injury-riddled Catalanotto and an aging (aged?) Bordick. The other four guys are utterly replaceable. I'm not so sure Cruz and four or five minor leaguers would worse.

That said, J.P. obviously knows what he's doing: stealing Hinske, Lidle and Ford-Griffin from the A's, and fleecing the Phillies of Politte, who's going to make people forget Escobar when the Jays dump the latter in July for an advanced pitching prospect. (Too bad Escobar isn't a slugging outfielder; Rich Harden would look mighty nice if he got his wings.) If the Jays adopt the A's model of drafting college pitchers, and if J.P. continues to instill the walks-and-power mentality in the system while mixing in some decent speed guys -- as they have this year, as we've discussed -- it's not going to matter whether he can maximize the budget by non-tendering guys like Cruz. The Jays are going to win on sheer talent sooner rather than later. I'm not as sanguine as the rest of you on this board. Because the pitching is so questionable, I think 75-80 wins is realistic for this year. They add another quality starter in 2004? Ninety-five wins and a wild card. Easily.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, February 20 2003 @ 06:23 AM EST (#95947) #
http://economics.about.com
If we assume the five players would have been "replacement level", and if you believe the Baseball Prospectus stat "Wins Above Replacement", the move looks as follows:

WARP FOR COLUMN A 2000-2002

Player 2000 2001 2002
BORDICK 1.3 2.2 6.4
CAT 2.5 5.8 1.8
CREEK 1.5 0.3 0.1
MYERS 0.7 1.3 2.0
STURTZE 2.3 4.7 2.0
TAM 3.4 2.5 0.1
TOTAL 11.7 16.8 12.4

WARP FOR CRUZ 2000-2002

CRUZ 5.3 5.3 5.3

Of course, there's no way Bordick will approach his 2002 numbers, given that he probably won't get all that many at-bats (and even if he does, he still won't come that close).

But notice that Cat, Creek, Sturtze, and Tam all had their worst season of the last three years. I guess J.P. figures that a couple of these guys are going to bounce back and have quite productive seasons.

I think the bottom line is this: The move was a good one unless you have a lot of faith that J.P. and Keith could have conjured up some well above replacement level players from the minors.

Mike
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