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Well we've hit the mystical 116 comments in the old HC thread, so I'm opening another for discussion of today's events from the Louisiana swamps.
Hijack Central - Born on the Bayou | 121 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Andrew Edwards - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 12:31 PM EST (#83386) #
In case anyone wants to pick it up, I've been arguing the Jays case against the Yanks and Sox in this thread. I'm probably being too strong, but the case is there to make, if you dig into it. Anyways, I'm dropping it since I actually have a life, but Jays fans might want to read it.
_Jordan - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 12:32 PM EST (#83387) #
Long before the Superdome
Where the Saints of football play...
Lived a city that the damned call home
Hear their hellish rondelet...

New Orleans!
Home of pirates, drunks and whores
New Orleans!
Tacky overpriced souvenir stores

If you want to go to hell, you should take a trip
To the Sodom and Gomorrah of the Mississip'

New Orleans!
Stinking, rotten, vomiting, vile
New Orleans!
Putrid, brackish, maggotty, foul

New Orleans!
Crummy, lousy, rancid, and rank
New Orleans!
Coach - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 12:45 PM EST (#83388) #
Andrew, I know you're probably fighting the good fight against a lot of Beavis and Butthead types, but I can't be bothered to filter out the noise over there.

I did follow the link; good for Bob Elliott, better for Sun readers. Not even a hint of axe-grinding in that column. "Not bad, eh?" is some of Bob's highest praise for management in the last two years.
_GregO - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 01:03 PM EST (#83389) #
So, three of us (me and 2 girls) take a trip to New Orleans. We're walking down a street, people around, seemingly no reason for concern. Two guys with guns drop out of a tree and everyone else on the street disappears.

But even I like Nawlins more than Jordan.
_Neyer Chat Righ - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 01:28 PM EST (#83390) #
Garciaparra for Abreu and Rollins is a wicked rumour.
_A - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 01:36 PM EST (#83391) #
What do the Sox do with $9.1M worth of Abreu? They already have Kaplar and Nixon who combined make less than Abreu (about $7.5M total).
Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 02:14 PM EST (#83392) #
The press is reporting that Politte will be non-tendered. I hope this turns out to be untrue. Politte's record from 2000-2002 was that of a capable reliever; all his ratios were quite good and his total runs allowed (earned and unearned) were modest.

He was vile from April-June of last year, giving up 11 homers in 33 innings, but then the entire bullpen aside from Lopez was bad. He returned to form in the second half of last year, not allowing a homer in 15 innings.

He might get $800,000 in arbitration (after last season's disaster), and that seems to me to be a fair price.
Pistol - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 02:15 PM EST (#83393) #
Over at Primer they said WFAN said there was a ARod & Arbeu to the Sox, Nixon & Garciaparra to the Phils, and Rollins & Manny to the Rangers trade.
_Spicol - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 02:25 PM EST (#83394) #
That would be the biggest trade in the history of trades. The baseball fan in me would love to see something that large go down. The Jays fan in me is sweaty and grinding his teeth.

Could Bobby V get Jimmy Rollins' cornrowed head out of his orifice? Few players frustrate me with their underachievement like Rollins.
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 02:27 PM EST (#83395) #
I can't see any way that Politte takes a paycut in arbitration. Remember that service time has just as much to do with it as performance does. He could be anywhere in the $1-1.5 million range with those 12 saves this year making his ranking actually half decent this year.
_A - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 02:49 PM EST (#83396) #
Batista is getting $13.1M over 3 years, paying 3.6 in 2004 and 4.75 in 2005/06. This officially qualifies the signing as a great aquisition.
Mike Green - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 03:00 PM EST (#83397) #
Ryan01, Maybe you're right that even a very bad year of extra service time will get you a significant raise. Kind of like the old joke: the food at this restaurant is terrible and the portions are so small.

Anyways, maybe, just maybe, Cliff might voluntarily accept a pay cut, knowing that if he is non-tendered, he might get a minor league contract only.
_Cristian - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 03:13 PM EST (#83398) #
According to, Batista and his agent allowed JP to backload the deal slightly in order to allow the Jays to use the savings to address the backup SS and bullpen.
_Shane - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 03:31 PM EST (#83399) #
JP's on live right now, for those interested/able.
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 03:32 PM EST (#83400) #
JP is on right now
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 03:37 PM EST (#83401) #
Sorry Shane, you beat me to it.

Not much new. Batista will fit in the #2 spot and will fit in well with the clubhouse. They still plan to sit down with Delgado at the end of next season and try to re-sign him.
_Blue in SK - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 03:55 PM EST (#83402) #
Proving that TO does not have a monopoly on dumb baseball writers:

1)"Despite the reported response with Kevin Brown, the Yankees' starting rotation of the moment is 26 wins in the hole -- the difference between Brown (14 wins) and Javier Vazquez (13) and departing Pettitte (21), Roger Clemens (17) and David Wells (15)."

2)"Schilling, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Tim Wakefield line up against Brown, Mike Mussina, Javier Vazquez, Jose Contreras.

Put on a bib, Boston. You're drooling"

and finally,

3)"Although they didn't have the foundation of the lead dogs on which to build, the Blue Jays have added 19 wins to their rotation (Pat Hentgen, Ted Lilly) and a solid long arm to their bullpen (Kerry Ligtenberg)."

1)Didn't realize that all you had to do was add in incremental wins to determine the effectiveness of a rotation.

2)"Drooling." If all are healthy, that's pretty much a saw off.

3) More wins, add in Batista and we should take the pennant! KL is now our long man out of the pen.
_A - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 04:22 PM EST (#83403) #
Can Steinbrenner's week get any worse? Now there's a rumour that Clemons will come out of retirement to pitch for the Astros. And if memory serves, the Yankees won't get compensation for him either as they didn't offer arbitration.

But I have to say, Clemons is sounding awful cheap about sounds like a deal might hinge on a Hummer -- the car of course.

Clemens added, "I am happy for Andy [Pettitte]. I think he is going to make a big difference." When asked if he would be in an Astros uniform come April, Clemens responded "maybe," and that the Hummer offer made things interesting. The radio show's deal is good only until Monday morning.

(A Houston radio station heard that Clemons was worried he'd have to give back the H2 the Yankees gave him as a parting gift if he signed with the Astros so they found a listener who sells Hummers and he's willing to donate it to Clemons).
_Shrike - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 04:24 PM EST (#83404) #
The U.S.S. Mariner has posted an uncomfirmed report that ESPN Radio is airing a story that Tejada has signed with the Mariners.

If this is correct, I might forgive them for re-signing Winn.
_Shrike - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 05:21 PM EST (#83405) #
This story appears to have been a blip, but not a hoax of the caliber pulled off yesterday that the Indians were going to sign Vlad.
_Shrike - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 05:21 PM EST (#83406) #
This story appears to have been a blip, but not a hoax of the caliber pulled off yesterday that the Indians were going to sign Vlad.
_Smackdragon - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 05:30 PM EST (#83407) #
We need an inexpensive, defensive shortstop to protect Halladay and Batista' s gb tendencies. Aurilia is not the right choice and would be too expensive. Either bring up a ss from within the system or take a look at these poor hitting excellent defensive options

Deivi Cruz
-Doesnt walk, but doesnt stike out either...
He makes contact consistently.

Royce Clayton
-Cant hit but still safe defensively

Both can be plattoned with Woodward or another decent hitting player, instead of waiting for woody to step it up defensively.
_Geoff - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 05:38 PM EST (#83408) #
I dont see why don't give Woody the full-time job and get someone to platoon with Hinske who can hit lefties and is better defensively - then when we take a hit when O-Dog comes out for Berg, we improve at the same time on the other side of the infield
_Mick - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 05:50 PM EST (#83409) #
Could Bobby V get Jimmy Rollins' cornrowed head out of his orifice?

Um ... maybe I'm misunderstanding the question, but Valentine quit managing the Rangers about five years ago. And yes, Buck Showalter could get Rollins' head out of his ear (that is an orifice, and frankly, a head in one's ear would be anatamoically much more difficult and impressive than a head up one's, well, you know).
_Joey Joe Joe Sh - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 05:54 PM EST (#83410) #
How about Chris Gomez as a cheap backup to Woodward?
_Spicol - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 05:59 PM EST (#83411) #
Riiight. I was thinking Buck Showalter and typed Bobby V.
_Andrew Edwards - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 06:11 PM EST (#83412) #
Andrew, I know you're probably fighting the good fight against a lot of Beavis and Butthead types, but I can't be bothered to filter out the noise over there

Fair enough. FWIW, I dug out a few interesting statistical comparisons while I was into it, reproduced below, without comment, FYI:

- Batista last year: 193IP 132ERA+. Pettitte last year: 208IP 109ERA+

- ERA+

Halladay, Batista, Lilly, Hentgen: 145, 132, 98, 106
Brown, Mussina, Vasquez, Wells: 169, 129, 153, 106
Martinez, Schilling (2002), Lowe, Wakefield: 212, 136, 105, 115

- Mueller, Ortiz (both over 27): 140, 144
Hinske, Phelps (both under 27): 96, 112

In 2002:

Mueller, Ortiz: 98, 112
Hinske, Phelps: 124, 143
_jason - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 06:38 PM EST (#83413) #
Anyone know what the Jays are paying in Vegas?
P.S. Yes, I'm excited by the signing of Batista.
_Jonny German - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 06:40 PM EST (#83414) #
I dont see why don't give Woody the full-time job and get someone to platoon with Hinske who can hit lefties and is better defensively - then when we take a hit when O-Dog comes out for Berg, we improve at the same time on the other side of the infield

Besides not being nearly as bad as widely yapped about overall, Hinske v2003 made significant progress versus lefthanders.

2002: .202 / .293 / .339 124 AB
2003: .256 / .309 / .463 133 AB

Yup, I'm a Hinske believer. But that doesn't stop me from beating the drum for a backup SS who is a lefty-killer and, loosely speaking, can play 3B: Tony Graffanino.

Over the past 3 years he's gone .296 / .367 / .497 in 304 AB against lefties. Here are his 2003 defensive Win Share numbers:

2B: 202 innings, 7.16 WS/1000 INN (Comparable: Mark Ellis)
SS: 231 innings, 6.88 WS/1000 INN (Comparable: Jose Valentin)
3B: 115 innings, 2.45 WS/1000 INN (Comparable: Troy Glaus)

Admittedly dodgy to draw conclusions from this, but at least it's pointing in the right direction: a decent middle infielder and better than Hinske was in 2003 at 3B.

More numbers if/when time permits.
Pistol - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 08:03 PM EST (#83415) #
Anyone know what the Jays are paying in Vegas?

To win the WS - 50:1
To win the AL - 25:1
Gerry - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 08:15 PM EST (#83416) #
Marty York at 6:30 on Sportsnet said the Jays have talked to Scott Boras, Rey Sanchez's agent.

He said Vlady G is headed for Baltimore

He said St. Louis is close to signing Roberto Alomar to replace Vina.
_Brent - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 08:23 PM EST (#83417) #
Dear god. I hope Sanchez isn't heading our way. For what it's worth, does Boras represent any other FA shortstops that are in the Jay's price range?
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 08:24 PM EST (#83418) #

2003 Odds From

2003 AL Pennant

New York Yankees 9/5
Boston Red Sox 9/5
Oakland Athletics 5/1
Seattle Mariners 6/1
Chicago White Sox 7/1
Anaheim Angels 15/2
Minnesota Twins 15/2
Toronto Blue Jays 22/1
Kansas City Royals 25/1
Texas Rangers 28/1
Baltimore Orioles 48/1
Cleveland Indians 50/1
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 60/1
Detroit Tigers 200/1

I really like the Angels at 15/2.

Jays are 30/1 to win the Series.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 08:30 PM EST (#83419) #
Errr.. those should be 2004 odds. I'm stuck in a timewarp.
_jason - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 08:31 PM EST (#83420) #
Never liked Marty York. He was the Richard Griffen of the Blue Jays hey days, and he's still got the same schtick; "My sources tell me...." His sources being someone who knows the second cousin of of the guy who said...etc etc.
Anyways, 25:1; seems to be worth a few sheckles.
_Brad - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 08:58 PM EST (#83421) #
Rumors in LA have the Dodgers trading Weaver (once the Kevin Brown trade is official) to St. Louis for JD Drew, or getting some stick for him. Anyone hear anything about Weaver going as soon as he gets here?
_Brent - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 08:59 PM EST (#83422) #
Here's some more juicy gossip that I know everyone loves:

According to Rotoworld, the Jays offered Hudson plus prospects for Sheets, but were denied. This makes sense since Spivey sounds like he is going to stay. It's too bad that the Brewers didn't get jumpy and trade for Hudson before the Sexson deal. A rotation of HLH-Sheets-El Artista-Lilly-Hentgen would look pretty good. Although with financial considerations entered into the picture, the Batista signing probably wouldn't have happened.
_A - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 09:08 PM EST (#83423) #
What formula is used by to get these rankings?

The A's are going to have one helluva time out doing the Mariners and Angels, especially if the M's get Tajada...And even the Jays at that rate, how is 5/1 warranted?
_Andrew Edwards - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 09:45 PM EST (#83424) #
What formula is used by to get these rankings?

Normally, Vegas odds are just whatever it takes to get even bets - that is, as many people betting for X as betting against it.

That's why the Red Sox are at 2:1 to win the series, while the Yankees ar eat 3:1. Not becuase the sox are 50% more likely to win, just because that's what people are betting.

BTW, I don't really believe in curses, but there's no way that I would ever bet on the Red Sox to win the WS, no matter what.
_Andrew Edwards - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 09:48 PM EST (#83425) #
Best WS bets, IMO:

Cleveland at 100:1
Cincinnati at 100:1
San Diego at 40:1
Jays at 30:1
A's at 9:1

Worst bet is definitely the D-backs, at 11:1. Not counting the Red Sox or Cubs, who could never, ever win under any circumstances.
Coach - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 09:56 PM EST (#83426) #
What formula is used by to get these rankings?

Like Andrew says, books set their odds to balance the wagering; if nobody bets on a team, the price goes up, big bets drive it down. Ideally for the house, it makes the same profit no matter who wins. So these aren't probabilities or even rankings; they start with their best guess as to how people will bet and adjust to the money. They must have a lot of Seattle and Chicago customers. I don't gamble any more, but 22-1 seems low on the Jays anyway, unless you think they have better than a 5% chance of winning. Sure, you can guess right in these pools, but the price is rarely a bargain.

Marty York at 6:30 on Sportsnet said the Jays have talked to Scott Boras, Rey Sanchez's agent.

The Jays have probably contacted the agent of every free agent shortstop in their range, so this could be true without a signing being imminent. Rey may have lost a step defensively, and he's not much of a hitter, but if he's happy in the backup role and not too expensive, they could do worse. As an insurance policy, not a regular, I've always thought he was a candidate.

We were very lucky Mike Bordick accepted the huge pay cut last year; he was a tremendous value and he'll be missed, no matter who replaces him.
_Ryan - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 10:00 PM EST (#83427) #
Those odds are still better than the ones a writer for Baseball Weekly came up with a few years ago. His listed odds left a 50% chance that no one would win the A.L. East.
Pistol - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 10:31 PM EST (#83428) #
From the roundup from today:

Free agent reliever Terry Adams has drawn interest from the Blue Jays, who are said to be considering Adams as a possible closer.
_Matthew E - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 10:31 PM EST (#83429) #
Those odds are still better than the ones a writer for Baseball Weekly came up with a few years ago. His listed odds left a 50% chance that no one would win the A.L. East.

Well, it is a pretty tough division.
Pistol - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 10:46 PM EST (#83430) #
My first impression of Adams as a possible closer was "WHAT?!?"

But last year he put up a 156 ERA+.

ERA+ by year:
96 - 145
97 - 93
98 - 101
99 - 121
00 - 122
01 - 93
02 - 87
03 - 156

In 2001 and 2002 he spent part of his season in the bullpen, making starts in almost half his appearances.

If you just look at his time as a full time reliever it becomes a little more interesting.

ERA+ by year:
96 - 145
97 - 93
98 - 101
99 - 121
00 - 122
03 - 156

Looking at his ratios he's not all that impressive.

Year K/9 BB/9 HR/9
96 7.0 4.4 0.5
97 7.8 4.9 0.4
98 9.0 5.1 0.9
99 7.9 3.9 1.2
00 6.0 4.2 0.6
03 6.8 3.0 0.1

What you do have to like is that he only gave up 1 HR last year.

If he'd be coming in to be the closer you'd have to imagine he'd get more than Ligtenberg. Probably 2 years, $5 million.

Haven't thought about this too much yet, but I'm not overly excited by it, but I don't know that it'd be a bad move either (much like I feel about KL).
Pistol - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 11:02 PM EST (#83431) #
I may have been a little premature in saying the ratios were poor on Adams

Year K/9 BB/9 HR/9
96 7.0 4.4 0.5
97 7.8 4.9 0.4
98 9.0 5.1 0.9
99 7.9 3.9 1.2
00 6.0 4.2 0.6
03 6.8 3.0 0.1

Looking at the splits on ESPN for the last 3 seasons only as a reliever he was better than any of the other years:

01-03 7.1 2.9 0.3

The more I look into things the more I like the potential signing.
_Shane - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 11:18 PM EST (#83432) #
I see the rip-off artist Marty York had nothing new to add this late evening concerning day 1 buzz, anyone caught any new scuddlebutt from Mikey Wilner?
_Marco - Friday, December 12 2003 @ 11:45 PM EST (#83433) #
the ERA+ on adams does look pretty good from last year, but he might not be the good clubhouse guy JP always looks for. i'm not sure what came out of this, as it is an article from august of this year, but he allegedly hit his wife.

this line is particularly disturbing--"...Adams threw her to the floor, kicked her repeatedly and pulled her around the room by her hair, according to court papers. She also told the officer that Adams grabbed her hands and used them to hit himself in the face."
i'm not sure what came out of this, but it doesn't sound good.
_Jurgen - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 12:01 AM EST (#83434) #
Worst move of the offseason: Phillies resign Bowa until 2007. As my friend Niles wonders, does Bowa have naked pictures of Ed Wade?

I think I'd just kill myself if I was Thome.

Or start whining and complaining until I get traded. Isn't that what superstars do after they sign their mega-contracts?
_Ken - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 07:27 AM EST (#83435) #
Griffin has an article about the Batista signing this morning, COMN. It's actually to some degree complementory towards JP's work this offseason. Considering the budget he has to work with, having the Red Sox and Yankees in sight is a real achievement.
_Chuck Van Den C - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 08:56 AM EST (#83436) #
Long before the Superdome
Where the Saints of football play...

I am just a humble paper boy
No romance do I seek...

What? We're not doing the whole episode?
Gerry - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:37 AM EST (#83437) #
I heard Wilner last night. The only new rumour he had was Soriano the the Expos for Vidro.
_Kristian - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:31 AM EST (#83438) #
Crazy rumor last night on the Stormin Normin show was the Yankees making a secret play for Tejada, then moving him to third, Boone to 2nd and Soriano to center.
Coach - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:33 AM EST (#83439) #
Phillies resign Bowa until 2007.

Larry, my least favourite manager, will have to be really terrible to screw it up in 2004. The difference between Billy Wagner and Jose Mesa or Mike Williams goes beyond the statistical chasm; his teammates will be more confident in close games. Tim Worrell was another nice pickup by every reliever's favourite GM. Brett Myers should keep getting better and Eric Milton could be very effective the first couple times through a new league. It wasn't his left arm that was hurt, so as long as his legs are OK, he should help a lot. If they bring back Millwood or come close to replacing him, I really like their chances next year. Notice I'm not even counting on Pat the Bat to improve; didn't Mark McGwire once have a year that bad?

Soriano for Vidro? My first reaction is "Crap! The Yankees get better." It's also a great return for Montreal; more than I ever thought they'd get for Craig B.'s main man.

Ken, thanks for the link to the Griffin article. I'm going to open another thread for that.
_Jeff Geauvreau - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 11:16 AM EST (#83440) #
Hey Guys & Gals:

The Rule 5 draft is coming up on Monday and the players to be named in a few trades have not yet been announced (Stewart for Kielty & Kielty for Lilly).

Did I miss an announcement?
Gitz - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 11:46 AM EST (#83441) #
I wonder how much Rich Aurilia would cost? It's doubtful he'd want to move this far East, but he is a New Yorker, and he's in the Mike Bordick mold: solid but not spectacular, with some pop in his bat. (Bordick is the superior fielder, of course.) He'd make a nice transition to the next SS, and he's got "big game experience," for whatever that is worth. He's probably too expensive, but one never knows.
_Steve Z - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 12:15 PM EST (#83442) #
Elliott reports that the Jays are looking at either Gomez or Sanchez to share SS duties with Woody.
_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 12:16 PM EST (#83443) #
I don't want to see Aurilia as a Jay (unless the impossible happens and he signs for, like, 2 years at 3 million total).
Mike Green - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 01:48 PM EST (#83444) # reports that the Bosox have signed Foulke to a 3 year deal. Whoever has B Kim in Spicol's game might have a winner, there.
_Scott Lucas - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 03:14 PM EST (#83445) #

JD Drew and Eli Marrerro for Ray King, Jason Marquis AND Adam Wainwright.

Atlanta gives up its best pitching prospect for Drew, who has never reached 500 plate appearances in a season and will be a free agent after 2004.
Coach - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 03:26 PM EST (#83446) #
I had Drew in the pool because I bought the rumour that he was L.A. bound. Even a blind squirrel finds the odd acorn.

J.D. is a pretty shaky replacement for Sheff and Atlanta gave up a ton of pitching here; immediate help and a hot prospect. Big win for the Cards that could pay dividends for a long time. They may not be the three strongest teams in baseball, but St. Louis, Houston and the Cubs should have another fantastic divisional race.
_Johnny Mack - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 03:33 PM EST (#83447) #
Wow! How long now until the Cubs sign Pudge or A-Rod, I wonder?

I bet Jeff Weaver just breathed a big sigh of relief.
_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 03:37 PM EST (#83448) #
Could BK come to the Jays? What's his contract status? How about Scott Williamson's?
_A - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 03:40 PM EST (#83449) #
Red Sox officially have Foulke, 3 years, $21M.
_Andrew Edwards - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 04:31 PM EST (#83450) #
Juan Encarnacion to the Dodgers for a PTBNL.
_Andrew Edwards - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 04:34 PM EST (#83451) #
I wouldn't judge the Drew deal yet.

The Braves probably have another step or two till they're done. They also have a great record of trading away pitching prospects at their peak value.

And I suspect that they have more money than they're letting on.


Foulke is a great pitcher, but he's also a fairly small upgrade for the Sox. Probably an overpayment. $7 million for a closer is too much, period.


Encarnacion deal is hard to measure.
_A - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 04:45 PM EST (#83452) #
If I'm a Marlin's fan, I like this trade because Encarnacion is a player coming off the bench making $3.45M and for the moment nothing is coming back in the way of salary. If they can pick up a 4th outfielder making 500K in return, it gives them some better flexability to sign the kind of guys they need.
_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 06:30 PM EST (#83453) #
According to TSN's Bottom Line, The Yankees have made a formal offer to Vladdy. Even more shocking, in a report dripping with ludicrosity, our other other AL East brethren, The Orioles, have offered official contracts to Vladdy, Miggy, Javy, AND Pudge ... Tough division ;-)
_Ryan Day - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 06:58 PM EST (#83454) #
Well, if the O's sign all four of those FA's, they might be a threat to take third place from the Jay. (But what would they do with two catchers?)
_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 07:05 PM EST (#83455) #
Ryan - I thought that first too, but what better situation for two aging catchers? You don't need an offensive hole like Greg Zaun starting 20 games, Pudge and Javy can cycle through the C and DH spots.

Disclaimer - I don't thinkt he O's will sign any more than two of these guys (if that many), I just thought the report was interesting.
_Ryan Day - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 07:15 PM EST (#83456) #
You know, I'd actually be happy if the O's signed Pudge & Javy to long-term deals. I don't think there's any way Lopez repeats his 2003 season, so the idea of him spending any significant time at DH is pretty silly. Both are in their thirties, too, so even if they gave Baltimore a boost in 2004, by 2006 they could both be pretty ugly.

I agree that they'll probably end up with two, if they're lucky. I'll say Pudge & Tejada, both signed to four-or-five year deals for too much money.
Pistol - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 07:28 PM EST (#83457) #
Some more clues.....

Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi said he could be close to a deal for a right-handed reliever.

Ricciardi added the player was not an established closer.

Ricciardi said "we would be dealing from depth."

"If we do this deal, we wouldn't have enough money to go get [an established free-agent] closer," Ricciardi said.

Ricciradi said the deal, if it is made, could happen immediately or might be delayed until Sunday.
_Mike - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 07:29 PM EST (#83458) #
NEW ORLEANS -- Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi said late Saturday at the Winter Meetings that he could be close to a deal for a right-handed reliever.
"It just popped up and we're trying to move on it," Ricciardi said. "I wouldn't consider it a major trade, but it would fill a need. It's someone who could help us."

Ricciardi added the player was not an established closer but would have a chance to compete with Aquilino Lopez and Kerry Ligtenberg for the Jays' job next season.

"It's just a piece of the puzzle," Ricciardi said. "And we would be dealing from depth."

The Jays have great depth in the outfield, including top prospects Alexis Rios, Gabe Gross and John-Ford Griffin at Triple-A.

Ricciardi said the team he was talking to is not in the American League East. He also said the Jays would add salary in the deal.

"If we do this deal, we wouldn't have enough money to go get [an established free-agent] closer," Ricciardi said.

Ricciradi said the deal, if it is made, could happen immediately or might be delayed until Sunday.*

I wonder who it is
wonder who it is?
_Andrew Edwards - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 07:39 PM EST (#83459) #
Easily the most important line in theat report:

He also said the Jays would add salary in the deal.

1) If this deal happens, the whole thing will come down to money. One of the reasons I was lukewarm on the Ligtenberg signing was that one of the signatures of the Gord Ash era was overpaying for relievers. We've a pretty good bullpen right now. Giving up a prospect and money for a reliever is a surprisingly Ashen move from a GM I really respect.

2) Is there pressure from above on JP? Rogers saw the bullpen fare pretty badly last year. I believe that we would have, over a few years, been able to put together a quality bullpen for next-to-no money. I know that Keith Law agrees, and I think that JP does. Someone is suddenly willing to pay millions for relief help. Is it really Riccardi?

3) The Jays are making trades that add salary?!? And signing FA pitchers for actual money?!? Hallelujah. The era of cutting Ash's mistakes off the payroll is over. The era of building a winner is upon us.
_Ryan Day - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 07:53 PM EST (#83460) #
It depends on who the reliever is, who the prospect is, and what the salary is. Ash tended to really overpay for relievers; I don't think Ricciardi has quite the same tendency yet. Also, I'm not sure that he overpaid for Ligtenberg -- all the relievers of similar talent were getting similar money.

I'd certainly consider trading Griffin or Werth for a good reliever who wasn't making too much money. Somebody mentioned Ben Weber, and I think that would be a pretty good deal.
_Scott - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 08:28 PM EST (#83461) #
Wilner is hearing that it is Reed Johnson going the other way.
_Brent - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 08:34 PM EST (#83462) #
Scott: When were these comments made if I may ask?
_Brent - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 08:36 PM EST (#83463) #
Just so I can get something down before it's announced: my money's on Baez.
_birddroppings - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 08:59 PM EST (#83464) #
_Scott - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:02 PM EST (#83465) #
It was one of the last updates on Fan590.
_Brent - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:04 PM EST (#83466) #
Thanks Scott.
_David Goodwin - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:09 PM EST (#83467) #
Fan report just mentioned Justin Speier of Colorado as the likely pitcher the Jays would get in return for Reed Johnson, and Ben Weber's name was mentioned by Wilner as well.
_ainge_fan - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:10 PM EST (#83468) #
Wilner was just on the fan - piecing together whispers that the proposed deal could be: Johnson for Weber, already mentioned - or Johnson for Justin Speier from Colorado.
_Scott - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:10 PM EST (#83469) #
Wilner latest rumour is Johnson for Justin Speier.
_David Goodwin - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:11 PM EST (#83470) #
That's too funny guys - we're all junkies.
_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:11 PM EST (#83471) #
If it's Sparky, I hope we're getting someone a step above Weber (this is, of course, without looking at the numbers). I would have thought Sparky's reputation would allow JP to sucker another GM into overpaying, when it came time to trade the "dirtbag".
_David Goodwin - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:14 PM EST (#83472) #
Just a question for you guys: what are your thoughts on trading Reed Johnson and opening up the third OF spot to Werth? I realize that our third outfielder is simply keeping the spot warm for Rios or Gross, but that seems like a lot of confidence in Werth to give him an everyday shot at this point. Or does the possibility of this move reflect confidence in Gross to win the 4th OF spot in training camp?
_Ryan Day - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:22 PM EST (#83473) #
We could always fantasize it's Donnelly. (of course, he's not even arb-eligible, so he wouldn't be adding salary) I think I might give up Gross for Donnelly.

If Johnson does go (for whoever), I suspect it means the Jays will give RF to Gross; I can't imagine them having enough faith in Werth right now to make him a starting outfielder. They may let the two fight it out in Spring Training, though, with a way-outside shot for Rios.
_Donkit R.K. - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:23 PM EST (#83474) #
After a quick look (more of a glance, really) at the numbers I am in favor of a Johnson-Weber deal, and wouldn't complain too loudly if it was Sparky for Speier (though I'd prefer Not-So-Gentle Ben). As for the OF situation, I'd want Werth to start the season out there in right, along side the F-Cat and Vernon. IF all goes well, Werth performs well enough to be a valuable trading chip (or at least a great 4th OF) by July, when Gross is (again, IF all goes well) ready to contribute.
_ainge_fan - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:36 PM EST (#83475) #
There'd be enough PT to split LF/RF between Gross, Catalanatto and Werth - with Werth doing the alternating - 400 AB's each or so. I wonder too, with Ricciardi's comments that the deal would take TO out of the market for more established closers, if there's a shift in thinking that Politte would be better to keep - Speier + Politte > Benitez, Adams or whoever. Maybe the interest in coming north from the others is lukewarm.
_David Goodwin - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 09:59 PM EST (#83476) #
If we do trade another outfielder, I think it is showing huge faith in Gross at this juncture (is he really ready?). As you say ainge_fan, there is plenty of PT to go between Gross/Werth/Cat, and a fringe benefit of this in my opinion would be showing faith in Phelps as our everyday DH. I know Phelps struggled a lot last year, but I was sick and tired of seeing us playing a catcher as DH. Credit to Myers for a solid year, but why was Tom Wilson a DH ever?

The one part of these potential deals (Speier or Weber) that doesn't add up to JPs report is that the trade wouldn't involve us taking on much salary. Speier and Weber both made less than $1M last year (Speier $850k, Weber $375k). Although that's more than Reed, I don't know how that really handcuffs us financially.
_Ryan01 - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:21 PM EST (#83477) #
Hey aingefan.

Wilner's now talking about both Reed and Justin Singleton going the other way. There would have to be a pretty solid pitching prospect coming back with either Speier or Weber. Don't forget about Simon Pond, he spent some time in RF/LF in Syracuse last year and is getting a little time there for Santurce of the PR league.

Speier and Weber are both arbitration eligible so both should see their salaries double next year. Still not exactly eating up all the remaining payroll but it probably puts Benitez, Rhodes etc a little out of reach.

_A - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:23 PM EST (#83478) #
With the Mets snapping up Cameron over Oakland, the A's (even with their big three) are going to be a weak team in a strong division. 90 wins might be hard to come by, my guess would be 87-89.

Speier makes me neverous though. His line for 2003 (which is consistent with his career stats) includes 73.1IP with a big 73H. A very poor ratio that would make it tough to have confidence in him for the tough situations where you need an out. However, he has good control 66k/23BB. He's also a flyball pitcher, which makes playing in Colorado interesting and something I'm less than happy about acquiring for the Blue Jays.

In contrast, Ben Weber logs more innings (80) but had fewer appearances (62), allowed a questionable number of hits as well (84 in 80IP), control is pretty good with a 46/22 split and most importantly, Weber makes only 375K (versus 850K for Speier), and is a groundball pitcher.
_Ryan - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:26 PM EST (#83479) #
I wouldn't lose any sleep over trading Singleton. He's minor league fodder at best and pretty inconsequential. If they have to throw him in to make a deal, I don't have a problem with it.
_Jeff Geauvreau - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:30 PM EST (#83480) #
Hey Ainge_fan and xerone :

The minor league nuts rule !

Mike Green - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:33 PM EST (#83481) #
I'm hoping that this potential trade doesn't come to fruition.

As for the Mets signing Cameron, this fits with their long-term plan. They should be very strong defensively up the middle. Piazza and David Wright will make fine corner infielders. My guess is that they will be contending in 2005.
_Ryan - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:37 PM EST (#83482) #
And I'm the pompous know-it-all RyanNB, for anyone who's interested.
_Ryan01 - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:37 PM EST (#83483) #
I agree Ryan, losing Singleton is not the issue. But he does have some value. Johnson for Speier/Weber straight up would already be vastly overpaying, IMO. Throwing in Singleton would have to signify that we'd be getting a significant prospect back as well. Maybe a Cook/Tsao/Francis from Col. or a Jenks/Santana from Ana.

hey nestorfalls, good to hear from ya.
_Ryan01 - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:39 PM EST (#83484) #
Quite the little reunion we're having.
_Ryan "Mogw - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:41 PM EST (#83485) #
Speier is pretty decent outside of Coors: 3.48, 64/22 K/bb, .231 BAA over the past three years. I don't know if that's worth $1 million+ and Reed Johnson, though. It looks like he'd be a FA after 2004, to boot.

Weber would be preferable, if not spectacular.
_ainge_fan - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:45 PM EST (#83486) #
Hey Xerone - Ryan01, eh?
I hadn't figured Pond in, but your'e right - he could start the year in the OF mix for sure, with his apparently emerging bat and questionable glove (at 3b, anyway). At the very least he can help buy Gross some more time, though I don't think he'll need much. I prefer Speier to Weber, he'd bring more punch.
Seems to be alot of concern about Rhodes' health right now - not sure about it, but if true, significantly increases the risk with him.
Not too concerned about Singleton being mixed in, if it brought another arm/prospect/even $ that would be fine.
To A -
Check out Speiers three year splits - 1.10 whip, 3-1 k/bb and only 80h/93ip away from Coors. Overall his HRA rates are high (to be expected) but away from Coors (past three years) they're not too bad - 1.06/9ip. Its pretty hard being a power reliever in the thin air, but away from there he's solid.
_Ryan - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:46 PM EST (#83487) #
Mike Wilner is on The Fan right now.
_Brent - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:46 PM EST (#83488) #
It's very easy to get biased with players that we've been exposed to for extended periods of time. To tell you the truth, I can't really think objectively about Johnson to determine his potential trade value. He had some pretty good numbers in the minors, albeit at an advanced age, but he can't seriously be worth a Tsao or Jenks, can he? Is a Gross/Werth/Johnson combination even worth a Tsao?

This is what troubles me about trading Johnson. I'd rather have Johnson + a Rule 5 (Buddy Hernandez anyone?) than Speier and rush Gross before he's ready.
_Ryan Day - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:47 PM EST (#83489) #
... and was everybody who used to post on the Jays message board named Ryan? (I don't suppose there's any question that we're all pompous know-it-alls)
_Jeff Geauvreau - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:51 PM EST (#83490) #
I did not know Ben Weber had such great stats !!!!!!!!!

Ben Weber
Born: November 17, 1969
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

Batting statistics Search player by last name:

Return to History Index

2000 ANA/SF19 0 0 0 22.2 28 16 6 14 1 1 0 6.35
2001 ANA A 56 0 0 0 68.1 66 26 31 40 6 2 0 3.42
2002 ANA A 63 0 0 0 78.0 70 22 22 43 7 2 7 2.54
2003 ANA A 62 0 0 0 80.1 84 24 22 46 5 1 0 2.69

4 Seasons 200 0 0 0 249.1 248 88 81 143 19 6 7 3.18
_A - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:51 PM EST (#83491) #
Wilner's analyzing the Boston closer situation, saying Kim is destined for nothingness in Boston or to be traded.
_ainge_fan - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:53 PM EST (#83492) #
Xerone, Nestorfall (hey), Mogwai, RyanNB....where am I posting anyway? I'd think to get a premium prospect like Francis or Santana, it would take a little more than Singleton to be added to Johnson. Not that I'd complain...
_Paul S - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:56 PM EST (#83493) #
I wouldn't give anything up of value for Jenks. The man is a certifiable headcase.
_Ryan01 - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 10:58 PM EST (#83494) #
Rhodes injury concerns were with a sprained ankle that he tried to pitch through. He later admitted the injury and that it was affecting him, click on my name for more info. Before the injury occured in late June he had a 1.82 ERA. If his arm is completely healthy I'd take a chance on him.

Speier is decent but he'll cost over a million bucks next year and there was speculation that he may even be non-tendered by the Rockies. Johnson proven he's a major leauger, he's still fairly young, 40 SB season in the minors, can play all three outfield positions and he's not a free agent for 5 years. Even if I were a little biased towards Reed it's still not even close.
_Jeff G aka Toro - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 11:02 PM EST (#83495) #
We need a thread with everyone telling their old names from the boards they used to haunt.

Wait........ We are doing that right now.

I don't think J.P is going after a Francis or Santana! I would not complain either but we need another good bullpen arm right now.

This off-season has got me so excited that I can't wait for Spring Training.
_Dez - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 11:25 PM EST (#83496) #
Came across this rumour.. Who's Matt Riley?

Phelps to Orioles?
_Jabonoso - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 11:34 PM EST (#83497) #
Matt Riley is the best ( better: one of the three best) O's pitching prospect, he would be very high if not for constant and severe arm injuries. He is coming back with lots of questions marks of course. You can read something in the O's prospect review at BA
I think Phelps is too high a price for him ( most likely their idea ). Werth back home sounds more reasonable
_ainge_fan - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 11:37 PM EST (#83498) #
Riley's a pretty highly touted LHP who seems to have been around forever though is just 24 now. Power arm, had some control issues early in his career partly because he was rushed, blew out his elbow, had it rebuilt, had an off-year in '02 and rebounded nicely between AA and AAA last year. For Phelps? Can't see it.
robertdudek - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 11:55 PM EST (#83499) #
Jenks has a very high walk rate. In my opinion, it will be at least 3 years before he's ready to contribute much to a big league team. His stats remind me of Bobby Witt.
_Dr B - Saturday, December 13 2003 @ 11:58 PM EST (#83500) #
More info on Riley here

Things that stand out

588K 203BB in 517 minor league innings.

Nice numbers, but still, like the other posters above I don't see him worth Phelps.
_Nolan - Sunday, December 14 2003 @ 12:04 AM EST (#83501) #
I really hope this rumor is just that- a rumor. IMO Phelps will develope into a star player and, for now, he comes quite cheap...I just don't it would be smart to trade an almost realized talent for a question mark...but hey, thats just my opinion
_Brad - Sunday, December 14 2003 @ 12:08 AM EST (#83502) #
Someone help out an Angels fan and tell me about Reed Johnson. Haven't heard much about him out West.

As for Weber, he is a VERY tough-nosed competitor with decent stuff but not a closer or even a 8th inning set-up man. Good to have in innings 5-7, and with the Angels rotation recently, that was valuable.

No way (my opinion) will they give up Santana unless as part of a trade for a proven big leaguer.

Jenks isn't the head-case he once was and no one throws as hard in a farm system of hard throwers.
_Ryan Day - Sunday, December 14 2003 @ 12:21 AM EST (#83503) #
The only way the Jays should trade for Riley is if his arm comes with a two-year money-back warranty. The only way they should trade Phelps for Riley is if the Orioles secretly acquired Matt Morris and changed his name to "Matt Riley", and the Jays are getting both of them.

Note, of course, that the article in question merely says the O's have "had a discussion" with the Jays about the trade.

Beattie: "How about Riley for Phelps?"
J.P.: "#### off."

... would be a discussion. As would:

Beattie: "How about Riley for Phelps?"
J.P.: "Sure. Just throw in Adam Loewen and Jack Cust."
Beattie: "How about Riley and Deivi Cruz?"
J.P.: "#### off."
robertdudek - Sunday, December 14 2003 @ 12:23 AM EST (#83504) #
Reed Johnson, aka Sparky, is an outfielder who does everything well without any particular skill that stands out - except his hustle. He doesn't draw tons of walks but because he gets hit by pitches so often, his OBP is pretty good. He has medium power and average speed for an outfielder (though his hustle gains him a bit there). He can play all three outfield positions at at least major league average level; his arm is good but not great.

He just turned 27 and has quickly become a fan favourite around here. Batter's Box interviewed Reed earlier this year (see link to said interview in left-hand column). Carlos Tosca (the Jays' manager) loves him.

From the Angels' point of view, I don't see him as helping more than DaVanon, which would make acquiring him fairly pointless. The Jays aren't going to give him away, so you can bet if a trade is in the works, it's for a player of some value or a very good prospect.
_A - Sunday, December 14 2003 @ 12:34 AM EST (#83505) #
I would be surprised if the Angels wanted Sparky but an NL team would definately benefit from his finer abilities like laying down a bunt as well as his overall effort that amounts to a high rate of execution.

...looks like we're going to need another thread to romp in the swamp.
Joe - Sunday, December 14 2003 @ 12:53 AM EST (#83506) #
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