Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - BBFL: ESPN Picks Bashers

In the latest installment of ESPN's Hot Stove Heater series, Eric Karabell gives a run-down of the top 50 fantasy players. No surprises in the top 5: A-Rod, Soriano, Pujols, Vlad, Helton. I wouldn't personally rank Randy Johnson as high as #10, but the only name on the list that really stands out to me is Jose Reyes at #48. 69 games in the majors batting .307/.334/.434 and he's one of the top 50 fantasy players? Wow. The Toronto big three all make the list: Doc is #22, Delgado #27, and Vernon #40.

But this ain't the real world, so let's see what this list tells us about the upcoming BBFL season...

I went through ESPN's Top 50 list and noted the BBFL team corresponding to each. 5 teams claimed 4 players, so to differentiate them I calculated the average rank of their players. This gave Billie's Bashers a slight edge over the Toronto Walrus as the preseason ESPN favourite for the BBFL title, according to this highly debatable analysis. The other teams with 4 top 50 players to their rosters were the Springfield Isotopes, the Thunderbirds, and Garces_not_on_roids.

Here is the complete summary.


Team	Top 50	Av Rank
Billies	4	21.8
Toronto	4	24.8
SpringF	4	27.8
Thunder	4	29.8
Garces	4	32.8
Baird	3	18.0
Sub-Urb	3	20.7
Nation	3	23.0
Gashous	3	24.3
Jicks	3	31.3
Reykjav	3	33.0
Geoff's	2	13.0
AGF	2	20.0
MassSuc	2	41.5
Red Mos	2	49.5
Eastern	1	1.0
Mebion	1	4.0
Moscow	1	8.0
K-Town	1	16.0
ChatsWo	0	-

Posted by Jonny German on Friday, January 16 2004 @ 02:11 AM EST.

BBFL: ESPN Picks Bashers | 22 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

_R Billie - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 03:31 PM EST (#80893) #

They sure like Piazza a lot. They have a lot more confidence in him than I do. :)

_Say NO to Soria - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 03:45 PM EST (#80894) #

As Good as Soriano is, I don't see him going second. His poor plate discipline drives me nuts. If I had to pick 2nd it'd have to Pujols/bonds, even though outfield is deep. Try to pick up Boone or Kent later. Not much of a drop off there.

Then again my strategy is usually to load up on SS, 2B, Catchers and
Closers. Something tells me that it's not going to work this year.

_Chris - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 03:53 PM EST (#80895) #

I find it wrong to rank Brian Giles ahead of Vernon Wells, especially considering that Wells's comment was "Great season, but OFs are out there"

Wells had a 19pt advantage in average, 29 in RBI's, 13 in homers, the same number of stolen bases and 68 more hits. Wells also scored 25 more runs and had a higher slugging percentage. The only thing that Giles beats Wells on is OPS due to the 63 more walks he had.

All in all, I think they would rank about the same, not at 33 and 40

_Mick - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 03:56 PM EST (#80896) #

This just in from an anonymous correspondent ...

"You statheads. C'mon, ranking players by this spurious method without taking into account clubhouse chemistry and intangibles? You clearly don't appreciate the game of baseball and should stick to your computers. Geeks."

_Jordan - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 04:07 PM EST (#80897) #

Mick, please tell Richard that we love him too. ;-)

_Jonny German - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 04:14 PM EST (#80898) #

As Good as Soriano is, I don't see him going second. His poor plate discipline drives me nuts.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe a standard ESPN league counts AVG, R, HR, SB, and RBI. Thus Soriano's failings don't count against him as much in this context as they do in the real world (or in the BBFL, where we count OBP). Also, the ESPN list seems to count positional scarcity pretty highly.

Lucas - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 05:00 PM EST (#80899) #

http://bbfl.scottlucas.com
As Good as Soriano is, I don't see him going second. His poor plate discipline drives me nuts.

Soriano is a good example of a player worth more in fantasy ball than in real life. (Obviously he's a fine player in real life; the difference is relative).

In fantasy ball, the marginal value of a stolen base exceeds a home run because fewer players achieve high SB totals. 57 players hit at least 25 homers last year. But only 14 players stole 25 or more bases. Real-life gap fillers like Dave Roberts and Alex Sanchez are coveted assets in fantasy ball.

Likewise, who cares about Tony Batista's .295 OBP if he drives in another 99 runs?

The BBFL was designed to mitigate some of this silliness by including more sabermetric categories such as OBP and K/BB ratio. That helps, but ultimately it's still a "fantasy" ballgame with different measures of success than real baseball.

_Spicol - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 06:33 PM EST (#80900) #

They're moving the fences back in KC. Is Beltran really 12th in a more spacious Ewing Kauffman?

_AGF - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 06:44 PM EST (#80901) #

I'm not able to check the list (my work has some kind of "fantasy" ban...). However, I guess the 2 representatives I have are Randy Johnson and Ichiro. Which means Ichiro must be #30 (kind of low I think). On a more important note I am always up for BBFL discussions and I think I have plenty of top-100 players (i.e. potential keepers) available for trade:

Jamie Moyer (very consistent)
Carlos Zambrano (great 2003)
Ken Griffey (he can't continue to be so unlucky...and the homepark is very accomodating for HR's)
Corey Patterson (lived up to his huge potential before injury)
Marcus Giles (My most valuable bat last year...)
Mariano Rivera (Consistent top closer and WHIP-K/BB perfomer)
Juan Gonzales (If injury free a great pick-up)
Phil Nevin (In the middle of a very good lineup)

Ready to trade any player as soon as Feb. 1 passes (I believe that is when the trading window opens up)

_Lucas. - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 06:56 PM EST (#80902) #

I'm not able to check the list (my work has some kind of "fantasy" ban...).

Quit your job.

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 07:08 PM EST (#80903) #

http://economics.about.com
Quit your job.

If you're looking for a new one, I recommend being a perpetual student. Sure the pay sucks, but the hours are terrific. Plus I love the look on kids faces when I tell them I'm in the 22nd Grade.

Cheers,

Mike

_Chris - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 07:28 PM EST (#80904) #

I agree with Mike. Career student is the way to go. I'm not as far along as Mike is but I am only a couple of years behind.

_Jordan - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 08:37 PM EST (#80905) #

Is Beltran really 12th in a more spacious Ewing Kauffman?

Speaking as Carlos' owner, I'm not too worried. His 2003 OPS splits were 915 at home, 906 on the road; 16 of his 26 HRs came away from Kaufmann Stadium last year. His steals were evenly split, too.

_Gwyn - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 08:50 PM EST (#80906) #

mmmmmm permastudent. I made it to age 27 at University and thanks to the fantastic British Educational System never paid a dime in tuition.

_Spicol - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 09:26 PM EST (#80907) #

Beltran's career splits tell a different story.

Home: 861
Away: 797

He has obviously improved since earlier in his career and his steals make him a Top-50 player and a keeper for sure. But the most recent version of Kauffman was pretty much neutral when it came to HR (the inflated offense at Kauffman comes mostly from extra singles AFAIK) and especially difficult for LHB, which Carlos is most of the time. With the fences moved back, there's very likely to be even fewer HR coming off his bat. It's simply something that Beltran owners should consider if they expect him to hit 30 HR like ESPN does.

_Brad/Chatsworth - Friday, January 16 2004 @ 09:29 PM EST (#80908) #

Should I throw in the towel now?

_Jurgen - Saturday, January 17 2004 @ 02:29 AM EST (#80909) #

I'm sorry I dropped him, but that really is wishful thinking on Reyes.

Coach - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 02:32 PM EST (#80911) #

The Walrus wuz robbed! We should have five in the Top 50, with Billy Wagner not on the list. I rate him ahead of Mike Lowell (35) and I like my unrated SS Orlando Cabrera a lot better than Reyes. When the trading window opens, I'm still looking to deal Lowell, Cabrera and Milton Bradley for one Top-25 type.

Speaking of ESPN and fantasy ball, I have resigned as Jays' correspondent, a position which might interest someone reading this. It's unpaid, but you get a byline and lots of interesting e-mail. Check the Index from time to time; my name will soon be replaced with "Correspondent Wanted" and you can apply by submitting a sample column.

_snellville jone - Monday, January 19 2004 @ 10:27 PM EST (#80912) #

The end of an error -- I mean, era. If it weren't for that old column I'd never have been a part of this league or have as much interest in "Baseball North", so I thank you for the time you put into it.

_Brad - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 12:52 AM EST (#80913) #

I agree with snellville. Way out West here, the Blue Jays get less publicity than any other Eastern Division team and Coach's reports piqued my interest Tronno baseball and got me into the BBFL. Truly great combination of insight and humor. They'll find someone else to write it but no one to replace you. Thanks!

Craig B - Tuesday, January 20 2004 @ 09:47 AM EST (#80914) #

I love the look on kids faces when I tell them I'm in the 22nd Grade.

Pfft. I graduated from 22nd grade four years ago. Let me tell you, back then, 22nd grade was TOUGH. Not the cakewalk it is now.

Though, of course, you're probably going on to 23rd grade. That was too rich for my blood.

And unlike Gwyn, I came out with half a mortgage worth of debt. Sigh.

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