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The rumours fly about which one of Oakland's three aces Billy Beane will trade, as if it's inevitable. Barry Zito to Texas? Tim Hudson to the Yankees? Mark Mulder to the Nippon Ham Fighters? What's the best deal possibe, or is the answer "none, stand pat"? And that's today's ...

Question of the Day: Play GM for a day and structure the best deal possible -- for both sides,(e.g. no "Menechino for Zito" deals) -- involving one or more of the A's Big Three. Make sure the money works and that the talent would appeal to both (or all three or four) teams. Best (most realistic/creative) deal wins a prize!
QOTD: Breaking Up the Big Three? | 25 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 10:28 AM EST (#11251) #
Tim Hudson to the White Sox for 2B Willie Harris, SP Brandon McCarthy, and 1B Casey Rogowski.

What the White Sox get: An excellent starter for their quest to win the World Series, without giving up too much on their active roster.

What the A's get: A terrific utility player who can get on base, a terrific pitching prospect, and a sleeper prospect who also happens to be an on-base machine.
_Mick - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 10:32 AM EST (#11252) #
The Rangers are widely known to lust after Zito. How about CF Laynce Nix and 1B Adrian Gonzalez for Zito? I'm actually not sure Texas would do that deal ...
_Blue in SK - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 10:42 AM EST (#11253) #
Mick - what do you think it would take to get Mench and Gonzalez, if the Jay's offer included Lilly? would Rosario do it?
_Mick - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 11:06 AM EST (#11254) #
Blue, I think Scott Lucas, who pays more attention to the Rangers than I do, could better answer that if he sees this, but my hunch would be no. I think the Rangers would do Gonzalez even up for Lilly, so you're talking about Mench for Rosario.

Any way to make this a three way deal where the Rangers end up with Zito AND Lilly? heh.
Gitz - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 02:38 PM EST (#11255) #
Errrrrrrrm, Willie Harris and two prospects? The A's can do better than this, and if they decide to trade Hudson -- who has the most value of the three -- they will do better.
Gitz - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 02:40 PM EST (#11256) #
And Zito in Texas? It won't be as bad as Chan Ho Park, but if Zito's career trajectory maintains its desultory course, he would get hammered with the Rangers.
_Donkit R.K. - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 02:58 PM EST (#11257) #
Zito to the Rangers, Teixiera to the A's. A's flip Teixiera to the Jays for Hinske (Jays can eat a dollar or two from his contract ~ he can cycle through 1B/DH with Durazo and spell Chavez at 3B), Gross (O-B-P! O-B-P!), and Chacin (shiny September call-up).
_Moffatt - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 03:08 PM EST (#11258) #
Errrrrrrrm, Willie Harris and two prospects? The A's can do better than this, and if they decide to trade Hudson -- who has the most value of the three -- they will do better.

How much value does Hudson really have? He's a free-agent after the end of the year and he's going to get close to free-agent market wages in arbitration.

Essentially you're trading for two prospects and a couple years of Willie Harris for one slightly below-market wage year of Tim Hudson.

It's funny, I thought I was giving the A's too much (McCarthy is an excellent prospect). It's kind of cool to hear that it's not enough. Maybe it really is a fair trade!
_Jonny German - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 03:32 PM EST (#11259) #
I thought your proposal was way low too, Moffatt. Compare it to the rumours involving Randy Johnson, who is also one year from free agency. Would you really expect so much better performance out of Johnson that it would more than counterbalance the increased risk and extra $10M as compared to Hudson? (BTW, Hudson isn't arbitration-eligible, he's under contract for $6M)
Thomas - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 03:39 PM EST (#11260) #
I agree Moffatt. I think you misunderestimate Hudson and his value, evne one-year away from free agency.
_MatO - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 03:55 PM EST (#11261) #

George W. you're giving yourself away!
Gitz - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 03:56 PM EST (#11262) #
Not to pick on Moffatt -- though that has its merits -- but I just read over at BP about a Hudson/Giles rumour. That's the kind of value the A's should target for Hudson -- and, as I say, they will do just that, though I doubt they'll land Giles.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 03:57 PM EST (#11263) #
I could have sworn I saw that he was arb eligible. Maybe I was thinking of someone else.

If he really is signed for $6M, then yeah, you'd have to up the deal. I was under the impression he was going to get closer to $10M.

I think you can still make it work. And McCarthy is an excellent prospect.
_Mick - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 04:04 PM EST (#11264) #
Hudson/Giles rumour.

Marcus or Brian??

Gitz, I agree with you about Zito in Tejas, but that doesn't change the fact that the Rangers *want* him, as misguided as that may be. Ever since they wouldn't pony up the extra $50K to sign him as a third round pick backwhen, they've been trying to correct that, way after the fact.

Zito to the Rangers, Teixiera to the A's. A's flip Teixiera to the Jays for Hinske, Gross, and Chacin

This would be a terrific trade for Toronto ... and ... uhm, for Toronto. The Rangers wouldn't deal Tex for Zito straight up in July, why do it now? And if they did, there is absolutely no chance Beane would flip him *anywhere.* Mark Teixeira, your 2006-2007 back-to-back A.L. MVP.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 04:06 PM EST (#11265) #
Just looked it up, and you're right: He is signed at $6M. Wow, he's a better deal than I thought. Still, though, you would only be getting him for one year.
_Jordan - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 04:31 PM EST (#11266) #
I would stay far away from Barry Zito -- something ain't right there. I would target Mulder, two years younger than Hudson and left-handed, but of course I'd happily take Hudson instead.

Good matchups? Oakland is set at numerous positions -- C, 3B, SS, CF, DH -- and is fine at 1B and LF for the time being as well. Beane could use an upgrade at 2B, and some insurance for Nick Swisher in RF. More young pitching is always useful too. So....

-> RHP Tim Hudson to Baltimore for 2B Brian Roberts, RHP BJ Ryan and OF Nick Markakis.

The O's need an ace starter to anchor their young staff, and they can afford to keep Hudson. Roberts, made expendable by Jerry Hairston Jr., can lead off and play a fine second base for Oakland. Ryan is a closer in waiting with fabulous numbers, and Markakis is a young but exciting outfield prospect. Value for value.
Gitz - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 06:42 PM EST (#11267) #
Maybe I've got a skewed perception of Hudson's value, but I think the A's can do even better than Brian Roberts, who is, it is true, a fine ball-player in his own right. With Huston Street apparently the next "future closer" (shudder), Ryan would be a luxury. Don't get me wrong: Ryan and Street, assuming the latter pans out, would make a nice little bullpen duo. But Hudson is an ace, one of the top five starters in the American League, and as such he should command comparable talent -- not could-be's, would be's, or bumble bees, but players who have actually proven they can play major-league baseball at a high level. I'm thinking of a Fred McGriff/Joe Carter-type deal, where stars are traded for stars. Maybe it won't happen, maybe the best the A's can do will be a handful of prospects. But they've got to shoot high.
Gitz - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 06:46 PM EST (#11268) #
Mick, drop me an e-mail when you get the chance. (Click on my name.)
_Moffatt - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 06:48 PM EST (#11269) #
where stars are traded for stars. Maybe it won't happen, maybe the best the A's can do will be a handful of prospects.

Certainly if it was a superstar-for-superstar deal where both are one year away from free agency.

At the same time, if I had a Top-5 pitcher with one year left until free agency, I'd *gladly* trade him for a Top-20 pitcher with four well-below market years until free agency. We can't just consider talent levels. There are other variables.
_Mick - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 06:55 PM EST (#11270) #
Gitz, have written but there are e-mail problems on my end so you may not receive right away.

On your point, though, isn't the whole reason the A's will trade one of the Big 3 to dump salary for potential? You can't trade Mulder for, say, Kerry Wood -- though that'd be arguably a fair deal -- because Wood's $8M salary is almost twice Mulder's $4.5M. Even guys like Josh Beckett and Mark Prior and Joel Pineiro are already making well into seven figures, not that you could get FLA or CHC to deal either for a slightly older guy like Mulder or not that OAK would deal with division rival SEA.
_Jordan - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 07:16 PM EST (#11271) #
Gitz, just to add to the thought: I was also looking for players who fit a fairly low-payroll definition. Marcus Giles would also be a good fit, but he's going to get real expensive in a real hurry through arbitration. The O's have the rare combination of (a) a surplus of major-league talent at 2B, (b) a decent collection of young and affordable talent, and (c) the wherewithal to afford Hudson beyond 2005.

Ideally, Hudson should command a great deal, because he is a rare talent. But in practice, there may not be that great a market for teams looking for an ace and having the young players Oakland needs at certain positions. But Beane has worked wonders before.
Gitz - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 08:23 PM EST (#11272) #
Of course Mick and Jordan are right. Once again, I'm speaking with my heart, and once again I'll have to accept that the A's will not, in fact, get Mark Teixeira but will have to settle for a few hired goons.
_Nolan - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 08:56 PM EST (#11273) #
How about a three way trade between The Jays, A's and Reds:

Reds receive: Tim Hudson, Eric Hinske and Nick Swisher
A's receive: Gabe Gross, Orlando Hudson (or Aaron Hill), and Austin Kearns
Jays receive: Adam Dunn and Ryan Wagner


Mets receive: Tim Hudson, Eric Chavez
A's receive: David Wright and Jose Reyes; plus top prospects Yusmeiro Petit and Blake McGinley
_Jonny German - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 10:16 PM EST (#11274) #
I'm with Gitz... Beane isn't going to make any of these proposed deals for Hudson, and for some of them I'd be surprised if he'd even give up Zito for the proposed return. The A's are legitimate contenders looking ahead to 2005, Hudson is a top pitcher locked in substantially below market value. Why would they want to make a trade that makes them weaker for 2005? There's no point saving those dollars when you can't spend them any more effectively. Beane has an established track record of choosing to hoard draft picks rather than trading away star players. Zito could be gone if the A's are convinced he's toast, but Hudson & Mulder aren't going anywhere unless, as Gitz suggests, the return involves star players.
_Ben - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 11:38 PM EST (#11275) #
This may be way out there but I actually see Hudson going to a place like Cleveland for some combination of Peralta/Phillips and Martinez/Hafner. This would have to include the A's then flipping Kendall if they do get Martinez (Boston or LA maybe?) and then having either Dan Johnson or Hafner moving on again.

This is perhaps wishful thinking as Shapiro would never do this, but hey, with Beane around you never know
QOTD: Breaking Up the Big Three? | 25 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.