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How bad were the Jays going into last night's game? Well, someone on the Royals -- the Royals -- said they expect to win. If I may steal a line from Deadspin (and speak on behalf of Jays fans everywhere):

Suddenly, we can taste food again.


Star of the Game:
Shea Hillenbrand for his seventh-inning homer. Must feel good to get your first homer in almost a month, especially after getting nailed earlier in the game.

Unsung Heros:
Russ Adams is one. He tripled home the seventh run, running "as if he was being chased by a hungry bear" (thanks, gv27). (Adams is actually quite fast, and I bet not everyone knows that he stole bases at an 83% success rate in college and 84% in the minors. If there's anyone on the team who should run, it's him.) Aaron Hill as well, despite his error -- you don't see four two-out hits every night.

Defensive Misplay of the Game: It has to be the time that nobody covered second base on a steal attempt by Hill. It wasn't really Buck's fault (shouldn't Angel Berroa be covering there?) but I see why he got the error. They need to invent a "team error" or some way to record those types of mistakes. While we're at it, the catchable pop fly that drops between two fielders is not a hit, please and thank you.

For the Blue Jays, it's Marty Pevey missing the foul ball in the seventh.

Squiggy Would Be Proud: Reggie Sanders, one of the few members of the 300-300 club, went down with an injury in last night's game after crashing into the right field wall, which was unfortunate. Not as unfortunate as his middle name, mind you. Surely there's a better choice than that.

Not a Surprise: Pete Walker's poor outing on Friday (during which he did not allow an earned run; don't believe relievers' ERAs) was followed by another DL trip. How many times has he "sucked it up" now for the Blue Jays, and how often did that work out poorly for the team?

Tabler Won't Join Tiger: Pat Tabler says golf requires "too much concentration." This is a baseball player talking here. Not only that, a baseball player who was the DH 291 times and the left fielder 204 times over his career. Let me tell you, left field isn't exactly a staring contest. Focus is an afterthought.

No, Not a Carlos Marmol Update: Dave Bush started yesterday, and MLB.com's Probable Pitchers page contained the line: "He only has a 1-0 record with three no-decisions [in his last four starts], but the team has won three of four games when he has pitched." Bush pitching better than the flawed W-L record indicates? You're kidding me.

Through four innings, Bush had just as many hits himself as he allowed to the Cubs after doubling home the first run in the bottom of the second. He was a one-man team around 8:00 last night, striking out the side in the half-inning after his double. The fifth wasn't as nice, as he gave up four hits and two runs scored. In the end, Bush loses when his team didn't score for him as I feign surprise.

Final line: 7 IP, 2 R, 9 H, 8 K. 14.9 pitches per inning, 68% for strikes. But hey, go A.J. Burnett!

And Finally: Here are 1000 words for you. The scope of the graph is May 1 through July 7:

TDIB Sunday: Take That, Doug Mientkiewicz! | 35 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#150426) #
Nice graph, Rob.  The Jays sure have missed Rios.  In double A in 2003, he missed a few weeks in April due to an injury and came back on a tear to start the season.  I am hopeful that he will return after the All-Star break this year in similar fashion.
CaramonLS - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#150427) #
While we're at it, the catchable pop fly that drops between two fielders is not a hit, please and thank you.

I remember when John MacDonald was trying to catch an infield popup and I guess the wind got under it a bit at the last second and moved it so the runner advanced to 2B.

Common sense says "thats an error", but it was ruled an "infield double".
Dave Till - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#150428) #
I'm sure I'm not the only person who has been wandering around in a state of denial for two days. "Baseball? What's that? I've vaguely heard that there's a team called the 'Blue Jays' that plays in Toronto."

Named For Hank - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#150429) #
I'm with you, Dave. Last night I actually rented a movie. (Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang, by the way, and it was really good.)
Maldoff - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#150430) #
Why did Janssen come in to the game as a reliever last night (sorry, I wasn't watching)? Was this a one-off move, or is there consideration of moving him to the bullpen?
Rob - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#150431) #
"as if he was being chased by a hungry bear"

You know, after looking at that line again, I'd like to know the difference between one's running speed when being chased by a hungry bear and one's speed in the same situation with a bear who, let's say, just ate a full meal.

And Janssen came in just to get some work before the break, I think. He won't pitch again until, what, eight days from now?
VBF - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#150433) #

Actually, in the Toronto Star today, Gibbons sets his rotation for the Seattle series as Janssen, Halladay, and Burnett, which will in turn see the Jays start off the New York series with Doc, AJ, and Ted.

This New York series coming up may quite possibly be the biggest and most crucial series played since 1998.

 

rtcaino - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#150437) #

Halladay had an awesome outing today: 7ip 4h 1er 1bb 6k. He threw 90 pitches, 61 for strikes getting 11 grounders and 4 fly outs. His ERA now sits at 2.92 and even though the game is now the 8th inning, it’s safe to say that he will lead the Majors in wins at the end of the day.

timpinder - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#150438) #

Halladay was great, but Downs and Taubenheim weren't, again.

Why are Chulk and Frasor (and even Gronk) in AAA with ERA's well under 3.00 while Downs, Taubenheim and Tallet are up with ERA's over 5.00?  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Dave Till - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#150440) #
timpinder: My problem is that I'm not sure how helpful Syracuse statistics are. Chulk and Frasor look like they're doing really well in Syracuse - but, then again, Taubenheim's ERA in upstate New York was 1.36. Maybe they ought to move the fences in, or something.

Chulk and Frasor do have higher K/IP ratios than the other AAA pitchers, which suggests that they might be better than the current alternatives. But it must be tough to come up to Toronto and pitch - the ball flies out of the park, and the hitters are much tougher. If a player gets sent down to try to cure bad habits such as trying to pitch too finely, it must be difficult not to lapse back into these bad habits when returning to the majors.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#150453) #
Ty Taubenheim has had 19 career starts at double A/triple A over 2005-06.  He has threw 103.2 innings, struck out 68, walked 34 and surrendered 12 homers.  The most impressive thing is that his H/IP and ERA have been good over those starts. Brian Tallet is 27, and has not really had success at either triple A or at the major league level. By contrast, Vinny Chulk and Jason Frasor have had much more impressive minor league credentials over their careers, and pitched very well in the major leagues in 2005.  Notwithstanding their rough starts to 2006, it's pretty clear that they are superior pitchers now.  Taubenheim may surprise us, but needs more work in Syracuse.
Ryan Day - Sunday, July 09 2006 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#150456) #
 Taubenheim and Tallet have both had games where they looked fantastic, but they've also had just as many, if not more, where they looked like a couple guys who spent last year in AA.  Of course, so has Casey Janssen, who I have much higher hopes for.  Hopefully League and Marcum can stick around and perform - they're long-term options, not just fill-ins. (though I do think Taubenheim can be a good reliever)

  I can understand Ricciardi's frustration with the Wells-Glaus-Hillenbrand collapse - that's just embarrassing.  But to single out the 4- 5 starters seems like deflecting blame.  Janssen and Taubenheim should both be pitching in Syracuse right now. Chacin got hurt, Towers forgot how to pitch, and Ricciardi really hasn't done much to patch the holes. He's talked about waiting a few weeks to make a trade in order to see how the team plays, but the problem is completely obvious and unlikely to significantly improve on its own: The fourth and fifth starters have been pretty terrible.  Either you make a move to improve now, while the Red Sox are still in reach, or just throw in the towel now.
Craig B - Monday, July 10 2006 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#150458) #

Let me tell you, left field isn't exactly a staring contest. Focus is an afterthought.

Quoting NFH's post from last week...

From some game where a player was wired with a microphone.  Possibly it was Youkillis, but I'm not sure; whoever it was, they were manning first base.  Alfonso Soriano reaches first, and the first baseman wearing the microphone engages him in conversation.  It's all pleasant enough, and is capped off by this wonderful exchange:

FIRST BASEMAN: And how do you like left?
SORIANO (shrugging): It's really easy...

Craig B - Monday, July 10 2006 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#150460) #
Can you redo the graph with Aaron Hill's numbers?  For balance?
Mike D - Monday, July 10 2006 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#150464) #

Joining Craig's call for balance, we should also include league average OPS to show that those three hitters are all still Top 40 in the league.

Speaking of Craig and his work, I again pause to point out that Dave Bush, as much as I like him, pitches in the NATIONAL LEAGUE.  Not only does he face them wacky hittin' pitchers, he faces lineups with crappy stats even though they don't usually face the vast majority of good pitchers (because the best hurlers are also in the AL).  440 runs puts you in Baltimore territory in the AL, but only 5 of the 16 NL clubs have done it -- and two of those have exactly 440 on the dot.  Dave hasn't faced Atlanta, one of the 440-exactly clubs.

Bush's line against NL clubs with 440+ runs scored:

7 GS, 41 IP, 47 H, 35 R, 31 ER, 7 HR, 15 BB, 37 K, 6.80 ERA.

Bush did have an excellent start against Cleveland, although that was a Tribe lineup with a pitcher and without Hafner, Blake or Michaels.  Still, that's a good result and Cleveland has other excellent hitters.

All that being said, your point about A.J. is certainly supported by this reasoning.  After all, Burnett was also signed to a huge contract based on his performance in Crap League.

Mike Green - Monday, July 10 2006 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#150467) #
I believe that Rob's point was that the team's offence seems to have fluctuated with the performance of Rios, Glaus and Hillenbrand, not that these players have been in any way deficient over the season.  The fact that the team's offence may not have fluctuated to the same degree with Hill's ups and downs does not in any way detract from Rob's point.
Mike D - Monday, July 10 2006 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#150468) #
Of course, Mike G.  Rob's making a fair and valid point about the offence.  It's just a little odd seeing an .800 OPS set to zero on the y-axis.
ken_warren - Tuesday, July 11 2006 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#150511) #
.365/.451/.507

No that's not the batting line of Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Chavez, Vladdy, Magglio, Thome, Jeter, or A-Rod, that's the batting line of Reed Johnson.

I have to admit, I'm shocked Johnson was able to put up that line. And it's not like he did it in only 60 AB's. He did it in 203 AB's and almost has as many walks as he did all of last season. He's slugging an incredible .621 of off RHP. Even if he dips a little bit in the 2nd half, he has a valid case to be a full time player.

I don't even remember the last time the Jays had 4 excellent OF's.

Reed Johnson has easily been the biggest surprise of the Jays first half. Some folks thought Rios would break out, nobody though Johnson would.


A 41% BAPIP is a wonderful thing.  With a 32% BAPIP (his career average) his line this season would be 302/388/435 which would still be the best of his career by a substantial margin, but a little more indicative of his true skill level.

HIs real improvment this season is in his plate discipline and batting eye.  Here are his major league K/BB ratios:

2003 - 67/20
2004 - 98/28
2005 - 82/22
2006 - 28/21

TDIB Sunday: Take That, Doug Mientkiewicz! | 35 comments | Create New Account
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