I'm flying solo this week -- the inimitable Alex Obal turned in his radar gun for a canoe paddle. It's not like he'll miss anything in the Indians-Jays series, involving a third-place team and a fourth-place team. But, hey, Joaquin Andujar's "youneverknow" warning must be recognized. After all, who expected a complete game shutout from Runelvys Hernandez?
This Scout features some interesting starters, Buffalo Bison after Buffalo Bison and a couple of my absolute favourite players.
On to the Advance Scout!
General: The schedule-makers are creative. Cleveland played Toronto from August 26 to 28 last year ... Four of their top six prospects according to First Inning are with the big club. If you prefer BA, they have #2, #5 and #7. Because of that, most of these guys are brand new to me ... When they scored 11 runs off Luke Hudson, he threw 21 balls in the first inning. On the same day, Greg Maddux threw only 18 balls over the entire game ... Took two of three from KC, then two of three from Detroit. Saturday's game saw a six-run fifth after Detroit broke a 2-2 tie in the top of the inning, then Kenny Rogers shut them down on Sunday ... Have the third-best offense in the AL behind New York and Chicago and the fourth-best pitching staff. So why are they closer to Kansas City than Detroit? It might be the defense (lowest DER in the majors at .675). Nothing else seems to be worthy of a 9th- or 10th-place ranking in the league ... Bring in the kids! They traded away Guillermo Mota for a PTBNL, Todd Hollandsworth for a PTBN (oddly, no "later" was specified), Ronnie Belliard for Hector Luna, Ben Broussard for Shin-Soo Choo, and Bob Wickman for a minor league catcher ... Still with me? ... Jason Michaels struck out in the top of the eighth inning against Minnesota on August 16. Thing is, there were only two strikes. Unless the umpire didn't bother to tell anyone that ball one was actually strike one, that's something I've never seen before ...
Paul Byrd: To use a technical term, has a totally awesome windup ... Throws a nice cut fastball at 86, a sinker hitting 85ish, and a change-of-speed that looks very hittable ... Johan Santana had 24 Quality Starts in 2005, leading the AL. Byrd was #2 with 22 ... Near the top of the AL this year in run support ... That 15-13 game against KC was Byrd's last time out, as he gave up nine runs in the first, though only three were earned. There were a bunch of dinky singles among the eight hits in that inning, but it still wasn't pretty ... His ERA is about a run higher this year than last, due to, well, batters hitting the ball harder -- his LD% jumped from 18.2 and 19.9 to 22.9 and his home run rate on outfield flies returned to the 11-12 range (it was a ridiculously low 8.9 last year) ... Still flirting with the Michalak Line ...
C.C. Sabathia: Power pitcher with serious heat and a nice slider at about 81-83. ... It feels like Carsten Charles Sabathia has been around forever. He almost has -- this is his sixth season, if you can believe it. He averaged 31.4 starts over the first five ... Asked what he thought of the Indians' cautious treatment of rotation mate Jeremy Sowers (Sabathia averaged less than six innings per start in his 33-start age-20 year): "It can be frustrating at times, but it helped me throughout my career" ... Has really racked up the pitch counts lately: 110, 111, 110, 111, 106, 122 ... Career best ERA this year at 3.30 as his K rate has improved, he's walking fewer batters and his HR/Fly rate is just 9.6%. The low DER hasn't seemed to affect him ...
Jeremy Sowers: Great movement on his slider, coming in at 81 most times ... Not overpowering, though, as his fastball barely breaks 88. Every time he brings the heat, I have to check the gun just to make sure it was actually his fastball ... And he seems to go with those two pitches almost exclusively. His changeup is seen less often than a total eclipse of the heart ... On Friday, went six innings allowing just two runs on six hits. The announcers praised his ability to stay out of the big inning, retiring 13 of his last 14 batters faced ... His ERA is under 2 in his last seven starts. And yes, this is his second year in pro ball ... There was some mention of his increased workload -- he was pulled after 85 pitches -- and here are his innings pitched every year since his 2002 freshman season at Vanderbilt: 101, 115, 122.2, 168.1, 162. That last number will not increase much more after rosters expand, as the Indians are going to shut him down. GM Mark Shapiro: "Based on where we are in the standings, why take a little risk on an injury when we can take no risk?" ...
Travis Hafner: Has been a great hitter for a few years now, but is out of this world now ... Did you know he was hitting better than Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and Derek Jeter? Pronk's creating 10.6 runs per game while hitting .307/.433/.646 ... Also turns a lot of his outfield flies into homeruns -- he's leading the league in that category, too ... And no, he did not make the All-Star team. Ozzie preferred Konerko and Thome ...
Shin-Soo Choo: Acquired from Seattle for Ben Broussard on July 26 ... Drove in the 13th run in that crazy game with a triple, cruising into third in 11.9 seconds (Bengie Molina's triple took 13.5) ... Pretty decent hitter -- .323/.394/.499 in Tacoma this year, after .282/.382/.431 the year before and hey, let's even include 2004 as a 21 year old in San Antonio: .315/.382/.462 ...
Victor Martinez: Started playing some first base for the first time in his career after throwing out barely any baserunners ... Caught 25.2% of baserunners trying to steal in 2004, which is pretty bad itself, but that fell to 23.2% and then 17.0% this year (Bengie Molina is at 18.4%). If the Jays ran at all, you think there's any doubt they'd try to take second? ...
Fernando Cabrera: Falls off a lot towards the first-base side, and I have to imagine that bunting to the left side is a good move, if you can pull it off ... Strikeout machine: his out pitch is a nasty splitter hitting 84 ... When he's not doing well, his fastball gets really wild, contributing to his slightly high walk total ... The Baseball Cube lists his birthplace as Tokyo, but it's actually Toja Baja (or Toa Baja, depending) in Puerto Rico. Alphabetical mixup? ...
Andy Marte: Tabbed as a dead pull hitter, and the numbers back it up -- with Buffalo, had 34 line drives to the left side and only 18 to the middle and right combined. Same with groundballs: 65-14-6 from left to right ... Baseball America's #9 prospect in baseball entering 2005; #14 entering 2006 ... Doesn't steal bases (or hit any triples), but looks like a Big Scary Bat in the making. Needs four homers to hit 20 for the third straight year, and his doubles in his North American pro seasons have gone 32-35-32-28 with 29 so far this year ...
Edward Mujica: His numbers are about as good as you can ask a minor league relief prospect to be. Microscopic HR rate, strikeouts aplenty, outstanding control and he's just 22 ... His fastball is around 91-93 and is quite straight, but the 85 mph slider bites very well ... If you're wondering, one Cleveland broadcaster pronounces it "MOH-hee-cah" while the other one prefers "moo-HEE-cah". We'll see which one Jamie Campbell goes with ... Sure, his ERA looks nice, but he has allowed 7 of 10 inherited runners to score. This is interesting because he pitched much better with men on base in the minors ...
Ryan Garko: Tore up Buffalo last year, then struggled this year, but is still a legitimate hitting prospect ... Will get a lot of playing time at 1B even after the return of Blake and Martinez's decreasing catching duties. Oddly enough, he's a former catcher ... Because of that, is really slow -- "probably the slowest runner on the team, and that's saying something." Ah, the fun of subjective opinions: a reader of Let's Go Tribe -- good site, by the way -- piped in with "he's faster than Victor, probably the same as Hafner" ... Has never faced Shaun Marcum in the majors, but was 1-for-9 against him as a Bison this year, if that means anything ... His full name is Ryan F. Garko. As far as I can tell, the F doesn't stand for anything, Truman-style ... Graduated from Stanford with a 4.2 GPA. I don't even know what that is ... Given the nickname "The Man Child" in high school ...
Tom Mastny: Here we go! I must say, I feel immense pride covering Nasty Mastny in an Advance Scout. This is much cooler for me than it is for any of you, but still, let me have my moment ... Made his ML debut after Carmona turned a 3-3 game into a 7-3 game in the ninth ... Is now the closer in Cleveland, whatever that's worth ... Since I can't possibly be objective here, let's let others do the talking. Gerry: "Mastny is tall, about 6'6", thin, and has a high leg kick, out from his body that helps him hide the ball before he comes at you with a 3/4 delivery. His fastball was around 89-90 with a good curve. When he gets in the stretch he loses the advantage of that delivery and looked to me to be more hittable." FYI, with nobody on, batters hit .155/.227/.178 against him at AA and AAA this year, which rose to .208/.325/.271 with men on base. Those are still great numbers, but the difference of 98 points of OBP and 93 points of SLG is a far cry above the International League "average difference" of 15 and 15. So 100 points to Gerry for his observation ... Baseball Prospectus: "[Mastny] has fringy stuff, but to use the oldest cliché in the book, just knows how to pitch" ... Eric Wedge: "From what we've seen up there, his secondary stuff has been a little better maybe than we anticipated. His fastball has some life to it, and he trusts his stuff...[He is] aggressive and confident. I like his composure" ... Out of the windup, looks somewhat similar to Justin Speier ... If not for the John McDonald trade, could have joined Frank Catalanotto on the all-time Baby-Faced Jays roster ... Stats below (except for Leverage Index) are his minor league totals from this year. So far with Cleveland, has pitched 9.1 innings, striking out 12 ... His highest ERA throughout the minor leagues was 2.61. And that was with Buffalo this year (46 K in 38 IP) ... Oh wait, there's more. He's the first Indonesian-born major league player ever (born in Borneo), though he grew up in Indiana ...
This Scout features some interesting starters, Buffalo Bison after Buffalo Bison and a couple of my absolute favourite players.
On to the Advance Scout!
General: The schedule-makers are creative. Cleveland played Toronto from August 26 to 28 last year ... Four of their top six prospects according to First Inning are with the big club. If you prefer BA, they have #2, #5 and #7. Because of that, most of these guys are brand new to me ... When they scored 11 runs off Luke Hudson, he threw 21 balls in the first inning. On the same day, Greg Maddux threw only 18 balls over the entire game ... Took two of three from KC, then two of three from Detroit. Saturday's game saw a six-run fifth after Detroit broke a 2-2 tie in the top of the inning, then Kenny Rogers shut them down on Sunday ... Have the third-best offense in the AL behind New York and Chicago and the fourth-best pitching staff. So why are they closer to Kansas City than Detroit? It might be the defense (lowest DER in the majors at .675). Nothing else seems to be worthy of a 9th- or 10th-place ranking in the league ... Bring in the kids! They traded away Guillermo Mota for a PTBNL, Todd Hollandsworth for a PTBN (oddly, no "later" was specified), Ronnie Belliard for Hector Luna, Ben Broussard for Shin-Soo Choo, and Bob Wickman for a minor league catcher ... Still with me? ... Jason Michaels struck out in the top of the eighth inning against Minnesota on August 16. Thing is, there were only two strikes. Unless the umpire didn't bother to tell anyone that ball one was actually strike one, that's something I've never seen before ...
Paul Byrd: To use a technical term, has a totally awesome windup ... Throws a nice cut fastball at 86, a sinker hitting 85ish, and a change-of-speed that looks very hittable ... Johan Santana had 24 Quality Starts in 2005, leading the AL. Byrd was #2 with 22 ... Near the top of the AL this year in run support ... That 15-13 game against KC was Byrd's last time out, as he gave up nine runs in the first, though only three were earned. There were a bunch of dinky singles among the eight hits in that inning, but it still wasn't pretty ... His ERA is about a run higher this year than last, due to, well, batters hitting the ball harder -- his LD% jumped from 18.2 and 19.9 to 22.9 and his home run rate on outfield flies returned to the 11-12 range (it was a ridiculously low 8.9 last year) ... Still flirting with the Michalak Line ...
C.C. Sabathia: Power pitcher with serious heat and a nice slider at about 81-83. ... It feels like Carsten Charles Sabathia has been around forever. He almost has -- this is his sixth season, if you can believe it. He averaged 31.4 starts over the first five ... Asked what he thought of the Indians' cautious treatment of rotation mate Jeremy Sowers (Sabathia averaged less than six innings per start in his 33-start age-20 year): "It can be frustrating at times, but it helped me throughout my career" ... Has really racked up the pitch counts lately: 110, 111, 110, 111, 106, 122 ... Career best ERA this year at 3.30 as his K rate has improved, he's walking fewer batters and his HR/Fly rate is just 9.6%. The low DER hasn't seemed to affect him ...
Jeremy Sowers: Great movement on his slider, coming in at 81 most times ... Not overpowering, though, as his fastball barely breaks 88. Every time he brings the heat, I have to check the gun just to make sure it was actually his fastball ... And he seems to go with those two pitches almost exclusively. His changeup is seen less often than a total eclipse of the heart ... On Friday, went six innings allowing just two runs on six hits. The announcers praised his ability to stay out of the big inning, retiring 13 of his last 14 batters faced ... His ERA is under 2 in his last seven starts. And yes, this is his second year in pro ball ... There was some mention of his increased workload -- he was pulled after 85 pitches -- and here are his innings pitched every year since his 2002 freshman season at Vanderbilt: 101, 115, 122.2, 168.1, 162. That last number will not increase much more after rosters expand, as the Indians are going to shut him down. GM Mark Shapiro: "Based on where we are in the standings, why take a little risk on an injury when we can take no risk?" ...
Travis Hafner: Has been a great hitter for a few years now, but is out of this world now ... Did you know he was hitting better than Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and Derek Jeter? Pronk's creating 10.6 runs per game while hitting .307/.433/.646 ... Also turns a lot of his outfield flies into homeruns -- he's leading the league in that category, too ... And no, he did not make the All-Star team. Ozzie preferred Konerko and Thome ...
Shin-Soo Choo: Acquired from Seattle for Ben Broussard on July 26 ... Drove in the 13th run in that crazy game with a triple, cruising into third in 11.9 seconds (Bengie Molina's triple took 13.5) ... Pretty decent hitter -- .323/.394/.499 in Tacoma this year, after .282/.382/.431 the year before and hey, let's even include 2004 as a 21 year old in San Antonio: .315/.382/.462 ...
Victor Martinez: Started playing some first base for the first time in his career after throwing out barely any baserunners ... Caught 25.2% of baserunners trying to steal in 2004, which is pretty bad itself, but that fell to 23.2% and then 17.0% this year (Bengie Molina is at 18.4%). If the Jays ran at all, you think there's any doubt they'd try to take second? ...
Fernando Cabrera: Falls off a lot towards the first-base side, and I have to imagine that bunting to the left side is a good move, if you can pull it off ... Strikeout machine: his out pitch is a nasty splitter hitting 84 ... When he's not doing well, his fastball gets really wild, contributing to his slightly high walk total ... The Baseball Cube lists his birthplace as Tokyo, but it's actually Toja Baja (or Toa Baja, depending) in Puerto Rico. Alphabetical mixup? ...
Andy Marte: Tabbed as a dead pull hitter, and the numbers back it up -- with Buffalo, had 34 line drives to the left side and only 18 to the middle and right combined. Same with groundballs: 65-14-6 from left to right ... Baseball America's #9 prospect in baseball entering 2005; #14 entering 2006 ... Doesn't steal bases (or hit any triples), but looks like a Big Scary Bat in the making. Needs four homers to hit 20 for the third straight year, and his doubles in his North American pro seasons have gone 32-35-32-28 with 29 so far this year ...
Edward Mujica: His numbers are about as good as you can ask a minor league relief prospect to be. Microscopic HR rate, strikeouts aplenty, outstanding control and he's just 22 ... His fastball is around 91-93 and is quite straight, but the 85 mph slider bites very well ... If you're wondering, one Cleveland broadcaster pronounces it "MOH-hee-cah" while the other one prefers "moo-HEE-cah". We'll see which one Jamie Campbell goes with ... Sure, his ERA looks nice, but he has allowed 7 of 10 inherited runners to score. This is interesting because he pitched much better with men on base in the minors ...
Ryan Garko: Tore up Buffalo last year, then struggled this year, but is still a legitimate hitting prospect ... Will get a lot of playing time at 1B even after the return of Blake and Martinez's decreasing catching duties. Oddly enough, he's a former catcher ... Because of that, is really slow -- "probably the slowest runner on the team, and that's saying something." Ah, the fun of subjective opinions: a reader of Let's Go Tribe -- good site, by the way -- piped in with "he's faster than Victor, probably the same as Hafner" ... Has never faced Shaun Marcum in the majors, but was 1-for-9 against him as a Bison this year, if that means anything ... His full name is Ryan F. Garko. As far as I can tell, the F doesn't stand for anything, Truman-style ... Graduated from Stanford with a 4.2 GPA. I don't even know what that is ... Given the nickname "The Man Child" in high school ...
Tom Mastny: Here we go! I must say, I feel immense pride covering Nasty Mastny in an Advance Scout. This is much cooler for me than it is for any of you, but still, let me have my moment ... Made his ML debut after Carmona turned a 3-3 game into a 7-3 game in the ninth ... Is now the closer in Cleveland, whatever that's worth ... Since I can't possibly be objective here, let's let others do the talking. Gerry: "Mastny is tall, about 6'6", thin, and has a high leg kick, out from his body that helps him hide the ball before he comes at you with a 3/4 delivery. His fastball was around 89-90 with a good curve. When he gets in the stretch he loses the advantage of that delivery and looked to me to be more hittable." FYI, with nobody on, batters hit .155/.227/.178 against him at AA and AAA this year, which rose to .208/.325/.271 with men on base. Those are still great numbers, but the difference of 98 points of OBP and 93 points of SLG is a far cry above the International League "average difference" of 15 and 15. So 100 points to Gerry for his observation ... Baseball Prospectus: "[Mastny] has fringy stuff, but to use the oldest cliché in the book, just knows how to pitch" ... Eric Wedge: "From what we've seen up there, his secondary stuff has been a little better maybe than we anticipated. His fastball has some life to it, and he trusts his stuff...[He is] aggressive and confident. I like his composure" ... Out of the windup, looks somewhat similar to Justin Speier ... If not for the John McDonald trade, could have joined Frank Catalanotto on the all-time Baby-Faced Jays roster ... Stats below (except for Leverage Index) are his minor league totals from this year. So far with Cleveland, has pitched 9.1 innings, striking out 12 ... His highest ERA throughout the minor leagues was 2.61. And that was with Buffalo this year (46 K in 38 IP) ... Oh wait, there's more. He's the first Indonesian-born major league player ever (born in Borneo), though he grew up in Indiana ...
