Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
I was writing about the Tigers the other day, puzzling out how this year's AL champs were assembled. Some of the players were drafted, some were signed as free agents, some were obtained in trade - just like everybody else.


Back in the early days of the Baseball Abstract, Bill James carried out this very same exercise - assembling information on what share of a team's talent was acquired by trade, through the system, via free agency. Back then, James was using something he called the Value Approximation Method (VAM). The VAM used a number of simple cut-off points to arrive at a single integer that could be assigned to any player's season.

The VAM was extremely crude, as James himself would be the first to acknowledge, and the notion of using a single integer to stand in for a player's season is... well, not appealing. Except, of course, when it's useful. Like when you want a way to do rough comparisons between great numbers of seasons. In that instance, the fine distinctions that make Carlos Guillen more valuable than Ivan Rodriguez are not as important as the broader distinctions that makes both of them more valuable than Brandon Inge or Justin Verlander. (Although James' Win Shares method operates on a scale fine enough to make those distinctions as well.)

And so, with no further ado: where do major league teams get their talent?

There are three major sources: the Amateur Draft, Trades, and the signing of professional Free Agents. These are by far the most important. Roughly 90% of the talent in the major leagues got onto a roster by one of these methods; every team has players obtained in each of these ways.

There are other ways for teams to obtain talent - the signing of amateur free agents (mostly Latin players from countries not covered by the amateur draft, as well as some undrafted North American players) has been quite important for some teams. On the other hand, quite a few other teams have no talent at all obtained this way.

In addition, there are several miscellaneous methods of obtaining talent: the Rule V draft, waiver claims, simple cash purchases. I have grouped these last few methods into a catchall category, and given it the original label of "Other." And, as with the amateur free agents, this has been helpful to a few teams, but many others have no talent obtained this way.

A couple of points on classifying certain types of players. The Japanese leagues are regarded as professional leagues. (Duh.) Ichiro Suzuki was an undrafted free agent, but he was certainly playing professional baseball before he joined the Mariners. Like Hideki Matsui, he was already a star. It's not at all like the Yankees signing Mariano Rivera out of Panama back in the day...

When a team re-signs one of its own free agents, I am generally regarding the acquisition of that player with respect to how he joined the team in the first place. For example, Paul Konerko goes into the Obtained by Trade column, even though he was on the free agent market last winter.

Here are the figures for the major leagues as a whole:

                                          Amateur         Pro            Amateur            
Total WS Trade Draft Free Agent Free Agent Other
MLB TOTAL 7081 2355 33.3% 2100 29.7% 1964 27.7% 413 5.8% 249 3.5%

Here are figures for the two leagues. Overall, you can see that NL teams have a little more talent remaining from their draft picks than they've picked up on the free agent market. It's not a big difference, but it's there. As we'll see, while some NL teams are built almost entirely from free agents, some others have almost ignored this means of acquiring talent.


Amateur Pro Amateur
Total WS Trade Draft Free Agent Free Agent Other
AL TOTAL 3492 1154 33.0% 999 28.6% 1006 28.8% 223 6.4% 110 3.2%
NL TOTAL 3589 1201 33.5% 1101 30.7% 958 26.7% 190 5.3% 139 3.9%

And, finally, here are the 30 teams:
                                          Amateur          Pro         Amateur            
Total WS Trade Draft Free Agent Free Agent Other
NY YANKEES 291 60 20.6% 64 22.0% 93 32.0% 70 24.1% 4 1.4%
MINNESOTA 288 127 44.1% 119 41.3% 29 10.1% 8 2.8% 5 1.7%
DETROIT 285 74 26.0% 81 28.4% 87 30.5% 11 3.9% 32 11.2%
OAKLAND 279 138 49.5% 99 35.5% 30 10.8% 0 0.0% 12 4.3%
CHICAGO WS 270 156 57.8% 42 15.6% 63 23.3% 0 0.0% 9 3.3%
LA ANGELS 267 61 22.8% 95 35.6% 82 30.7% 29 10.9% 0 0.0%
BOSTON 261 100 38.3% 60 23.0% 98 37.5% 0 0.0% 3 1.1%
TORONTO 261 73 28.0% 117 44.8% 65 24.9% 6 2.3% 0 0.0%
TEXAS 240 98 40.8% 68 28.3% 70 29.2% 4 1.7% 0 0.0%
CLEVELAND 234 111 47.4% 53 22.6% 47 20.1% 23 9.8% 0 0.0%
SEATTLE 234 9 3.8% 31 13.2% 129 55.1% 55 23.5% 10 4.3%
BALTIMORE 210 43 20.5% 65 31.0% 76 36.2% 11 5.2% 15 7.1%
KANSAS CITY 189 65 34.4% 32 16.9% 71 37.6% 5 2.6% 16 8.5%
TAMPA BAY 183 39 21.3% 73 39.9% 66 36.1% 1 0.5% 4 2.2%

NY METS 291 72 24.7% 47 16.2% 143 49.1% 29 10.0% 0 0.0%
LA DODGERS 264 48 18.2% 43 16.3% 161 61.0% 7 2.7% 5 1.9%
SAN DIEGO 264 162 61.4% 46 17.4% 46 17.4% 0 0.0% 10 3.8%
PHILADELPHIA 255 51 20.0% 143 56.1% 38 14.9% 2 0.8% 21 8.2%
ST LOUIS 249 66 26.5% 67 26.9% 107 43.0% 0 0.0% 9 3.6%
HOUSTON 246 59 24.0% 121 49.2% 47 19.1% 6 2.4% 13 5.3%
CINCINNATI 241 125 51.9% 45 18.7% 71 29.5% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
ATLANTA 237 67 28.3% 115 48.5% 18 7.6% 37 15.6% 0 0.0%
FLORIDA 234 74 31.6% 49 20.9% 40 17.1% 35 15.0% 36 15.4%
ARIZONA 228 108 47.4% 76 33.3% 28 12.3% 9 3.9% 7 3.1%
COLORADO 228 34 14.9% 151 66.2% 24 10.5% 3 1.3% 16 7.0%
SAN FRANCISCO 228 48 21.1% 37 16.2% 118 51.8% 15 6.6% 10 4.4%
MILWAUKEE 225 106 47.1% 76 33.8% 35 15.6% 0 0.0% 8 3.6%
PITTSBURGH 201 93 46.3% 62 30.8% 23 11.4% 23 11.4% 0 0.0%
CHICAGO CUBS 198 88 44.4% 23 11.6% 59 29.8% 24 12.1% 4 2.0%
There are all kinds of stories behind these numbers, and I encourage you to peer over them and find some. Having done this much of the Heavy Lifting, I am tired and want to go to sleep. I am an old guy, after all.

Let me just draw your attention to some of the broad strokes...

Seattle has obtained fewer talent by trade than any team in the majors. And the Mariners lead the AL in talent acquired through free agency. The Mariners? The Mariners?

The Yankees have done very well with amateur free agents, much better than anyone else, From Mariano Rivera and Bernie Williams to Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang, it's almost as important to their team as the big expensive pro free agents. Whereas more than half the teams in the majors received 10 WS or less from amateur free agents.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have obtained more production from free agent signings than any team in baseball. They were followed by the Mets, and the runaway AL leader, the Seattle Mariners. (I still can't quite get over that.) The Atlanta Braves have received the least, which in their case is a Philosophical Statement ("We really don't like guys from other organizations, they have weird habits.") In the case of the Twins and A's, who have received just a little more than Atlanta, it's a Financial Statement ( "We got no damn money.")

The Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies have more talent from their own draft picks than any team in the majors, by quite a bit. Houston is a little behind those two teams, and then come the two AL leaders, Minnesota and Toronto. At the bottom of this list? Why, the Cubs. Thank you, Mr Prior. Thank you, Mr Wood.

Finally, here's some Weird Lists of individual players.

The 10 most valuable players acquired by their current teams through:

Free Agent (Pro)     Amateur Draft       Trade              Free Agent (Amateur)  
Beltran, NYM 38 Pujols, St.L. 39 Soriano, Was. 30 Cabrera, Fla. 34
Ortiz, Bos. 29 Berkmann, Hst. 34 Cameron, SD 28 Reyes, NYM 29
Ramirez, Bos. 29 Jeter, NYY 33 Guillen, Det. 26 A.Jones, Atl. 25
Furcal, La 27 Wright, NYM 32 Thome, CWS 26 Zambrano, Chi. 19
Ibanez, Sea. 27 Mauer, Min. 31 Young, Tex. 26 Martinez, Cle. 19
Bonds, SF 27 Howard, Pha. 31 Johnson, Was. 26 Cano, NYY 18
Dye, Chi. 26 Utley, Pha. 28 Sizemore, Cle. 25 Wang, NYY 17
Rodriguez, Det. 25 Morneau, Min. 27 Hafner, Cle. 25 Paulino, Pgh. 16
Guerrero, LA 25 Atkins, Col. 26 Ramirez, Fla. 25 Lopez, Sea. 16
Suzuki, Sea. 24 Rollins, Pha. 26 Rodriguez, NYY 25 Rodriguez, LAA 15
Santana, Min. 25
Oh, let's see what there would be in the "Other" column as well. Bound to be at least ten pretty useful guys.
Other
Uggla, Fla. (Rule V) 22
Monroe, Det. (Waivers) 14
Carroll, Col. (Cash Purchase) 13
Taveras, Hou. (Rule V) 13
Victorino, Pha. (Rule V) 12
Scutaro, Oak. (Waivers) 10
Alfonzo, SF (Cash Purchase) 10
Jenks, CWS (Waivers) 9
Shelton, Det. (Rule V) 9
Gibbons, Bal. (Rule V) 9

Finally (didn't I say that already?), today is the birthday of both Whitey Ford and George Bell. Two of my all-time favourites.

Who have a lot more in common that you might think. For example, they're both Scorpios. Or Libras. Or whatever the hell they are, don't expect me to know...
Where Talent Comes From | 32 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
3RunHomer - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 07:00 AM EDT (#157090) #
That's fascinating. I had no idea that Atlanta had sworn off pro free agents. Makes the GM's job a wee bit tougher and might explain why the team finally crashed.

I suppose an interesting next step would be to see what talent changes "surprise" teams like the Tigers made before their surprise season, and where that talent came from.
John Northey - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#157093) #
It would be interesting to see the same thing for the Jays of 1985 (first division title for those of you too young to remember).  Back then the Jays used the Rule V draft a lot - George Bell, Willie Upshaw, Jim Acker, Manny Lee, Lou Thornton, Kelly Gruber.  Not a bad collection eh?  I can't find Win Shares for that season, but Baseball Prospectus has WARP3 which works good enough I'd say.

Total WARP3 = 73.6, total players = 40
Drafted - 46% - 9 players led by Jesse Barfield at 11.3
Trade - 27% - 9 players led by Rance Mulliniks at 5.5
Rule V - 20% - 6 players led by George Bell at 6.9
1977 draft - 17% - 3 players led by Ernie Whitt at 5.4 (these are from the original expansion draft)
Undrafted Free Agents - 12% - 2 players, Tony Fernandez at 8.9 and Luis Leal at 0.1
Released - 10% - 3 players led by Doyle Alexander at 7.0
Free Agent Compensation - 4% - Just Tom Henke at 3 (picked due to loss of Cliff Johnson)
Purchased - 3% - 2 players, Jeff Borroughs (1.6) and Ron Mussleman (0.7)
Free Agents - 3% - 4 players led by Tom Filer at 1.4
Minor league draft - 0% - 1 player Mitch Webster

Wow, back then they really didn't like free agents eh?  The 4 guys were Tom Filer, Buck Martinez, Willie Aikens, and Gary Allenson (some were probably minor league free agents - can't tell for sure via Baseball Reference).  To get 17% of WARP3 value from guys taken in the original expansion draft would be much like Arizona or Tampa Bay winning this year with 3 guys from their draft day in 1998 and having all 3 be useful (the 3 were Whitt, Garth Iorg and Jim Clancy who were WARPs of 5.4, 4, and 3.4). 

Interesting to compare.  Anyone up to checking 92/93?

Magpie - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#157094) #
I had no idea that Atlanta had sworn off pro free agents.

The philosophical statement was really based on their preference for high school kids over college players - the Braves really do believe in getting them as young as possible, the better to school them in the Atlanta way of doing things.

As for free agents, I believe it's probably been budget considerations - the Braves have been trying to trim payroll for years, but when you finish first all the time you tend to end up with expensive players. Off the top of my head, the last time they signed a prime free agent was probably Andres Galarraga. They've done pretty well picking up guys off the scrap heap.

As for them crashing - don't be too surprised if they're right back in the thick of things next year. They were serious Pythagorean under-achivers (they probably should have gone about 85-77), and they had serious injury problems in the rotation. The offense is fine (second best in the league), so if they come up with a couple of average pitchers...


Chuck - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#157096) #
Didn't Atlanta's withdrawal from the off-season FA bidathons coincide with AOL's purchase of the team?
earlweaverfan - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#157097) #
What I am most interested in is the big message that Detroit's story tells us; namely, that smart general management can rise above all the challenges faced by teams that are not the Yankees and Boston, and lack their budget, by using all these available avenues to building an outstanding team.  Detroit has clearly used every means at its disposal, and done a better job than the Jays have, coming from much further back, in a much shorter period of time.  It does not need to take that many years to go from zero to hero. 

Second, it is fascinating what great achievements the Yankees have had with the amateur free agent pool.  This shows that their outperformance cannot all be attributed to the big bucks, although it surely helps a lot.

Just imagine if the Jays, not the Yankees, had picked up Chien Ming Wang, and he had occupied Towers' spot in the rotation.  Not only would the Jays have won a whole bunch of games that they lost, but the Yankees might have lost a bunch that they won.

Ah, wudda, cudda, shudda, I know.

Still, I think we should ramp our expectations of what the Jays should be doing this off-season, to a somewhat higher plane.

Fawaz - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#157099) #

What Detroit shows us that is that smart management AND luck can overcome payroll disparities (Though the Tigers aren't exactly crying poor with an $82 million payroll, about $20 behind the ChiSox' division-high payroll). The contract they gave Ordonez seems to be working out this year because he's healthy, but at the time it was a MASSIVE gamble on an injured player. Pudge is a 35 year-old catcher, but he's still earning that $10 million a year. Kenny Rogers. Young talent (Granderson, Zumaya) putting it together quickly. Marcus Thames? There's clearly some good decision-making embedded in there and they identified some real talent, but if anyone went down, underperformed or didn't have a career year, this team is not where it is.

I highly suspect that narcotic use in Seattle's front office had more to do with the Guillen trade than any brilliance on Detroit's part.

I would argue that it's easier to go from a complete zero to a contender (contingent on astute management) than it is to rise from a prolonged stretch in the middle of the pack. You have a lot of clearly identifiable holes (as opposed to adequate but unspectacular players at all positions) and you live at the top of the draft. Verlander was a sure thing and he fell into the Tigers' lap (this is why I feel like comparing the Jays to the Twins and Athletics is unfair; those teams were bad enough to accumulate assets through the draft and maintain them through free-agent compensation).

I think we can point to specific instances where J.P. Ricciardi really screwed up and I'm not convinced he's even in the top half of major-league GMs, but you can't point to every successful non-Yankee team and suggest that's the standard. If the Jays enjoyed that kind of luck this year, would J.P. suddenly be any shrewder?
AWeb - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#157100) #
The reason that really bad teams can turn it around is that they have the "luxury" of low expectations, and can pitch/play rookies and lesser known players to see what they have, without having to worry so much about trying to contend. Detroit has let guys like Granderson, Bonderman, Maroth (who is injured now), Monroe, Nook Logan (stunk and was traded) etc... play, and they figured who was worth keeping and what holes they have to fill.

The Jays have done an excellent job, IMO, of doing this with position players in the last two years, with Rios, Adams, Hill, Johnson getting lots of playing time. Now they know they have a massive middle infield hole, and need to sign a catcher or two. Where Toronto has been lacking is trying out pitchers for extended periods, by which I mean a year at a time. Some of this is due to the lack of great prospects, but  as discussed here at the end of the year, there are 5-7 guys who might be a decent starter next year and into the future (Janssen, Marcum, Taubenheim, McGowan, Rosario, League and probably more I'm forgetting) , but the Jays haven't figured out who the good ones are yet.

Of course, when a terrible team can't find/develop enough good young players or dip into free agents to plug holes,  they stay terrible, like the Pirates. So stinking isn't always the best way to go...
VBF - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#157101) #

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=2727&line=195816&spln=1

Free Agent Compensation eliminated in new CBA which wil be announced in near future.

 

Mike Green - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#157102) #
If free agent compensation is eliminated effective as of 2006, and that's a big if, that would likely have an impact on the Jays approach to their free agents Zaun, Catalanotto and Speier. Thanks for the link, VBF.
John Northey - Saturday, October 21 2006 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#157103) #
  No kidding that will be a big factor, loss of compensation.  The Jays I'm sure were counting on getting 2 or 3 picks for next year from Cat, Speier, and Molina.  I suspect this jumps the odds for Cat and Speier being resigned, but doesn't affect the Zaun/Molina situation.

Hm.  Wonder if draft picks will be tradable now, since compensation is (reported to be) gone.  Should be interesting to see what the agreement is.  Also will be nice to have an agreement with no threat of strike or lockout for once.

Ron - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 02:01 AM EDT (#157104) #
With no compensation I sure hope the draft is fixed. I think it's silly the best talent can slide all the way to the middle of the first round or even later because of bonus demands. The best solution is to copy the NBA and NHL system. Every pick should be slotted and set in stone instead of Bud just recommending what teams should spend.

But if this doesn't get corrected, I wouldn't mind seeing the Jays paying above slot to get a better projected player. I'm sure the D-Backs (Drew) and Angels (Weaver) are happy with the results while a team like the Padres that went cheap with Matt Bush isn't. Even if the pick doesn't pan out, you only waste a couple of million dollars at most. Most GM's waste more than that with just one bad free agent signing.




jjdynomite - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#157105) #
One could "rah rah" about the Yankees homegrown talent, but one cannot lump Chien Ming Wang in with American amateur draftees like the Jete.  The fact is, the Boss shelled out $2 million back in 2000 for Wang straight outta Taipei Ti Wu University.

Sure, it takes a fair bit of foresight and research to do something like this -- and luck, as until 2004, Wang was nowhere on the Yanks depth chart, having shoulder injuries that knocked him out in 2001 and 2003.  But most of all, it takes a willingness to spend.

The question is, is Uncle Ted willing to go a similar route, knowing that $2 million for unproven internationals like Wang may well be a sunk cost?
SK in NJ - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#157106) #
So with no draft pick compensation, the Angels could sign Barry Zito and Carlos Lee, not lose a single draft pick, and still have enough money to possibly sign a draft pick that slips due to financial reasons (like Jered Weaver)? That hardly seems like a viable solution.

There simply has to be some sort of fixed draft slot salary rule put in, like in the NBA. If not, this rule is completely ridiculous.

Magpie - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#157107) #
one cannot lump Chien Ming Wang in with American amateur draftees like the Jete

I didn't, actually.

I lumped him in with the other undrafted amateurs - Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera, Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano.
Anders - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#157108) #
First of all, I think Mike's right, it's a big IF that compensation would be eliminated this year, given that it took them sooo long to get things finalized. Secondly, the whole point of eliminating the compensatory picks is so that they can go to slot money with the draft. As far as I understand it, any changes to draft pick salaries have to be collectively bargained because they are tied to the CBA because free agents can garner picks. As soon as that provision is eliminated, the owners can unilaterally impose slot money on draft picks, causing Scott Boras to have a heart attack and die. Correct me if Im wrong (except maybe the Boras part) but I believe that is the rationale behind eliminating compensatory picks.
Jonny German - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#157109) #
When a team re-signs one of its own free agents, I am generally regarding the acquisition of that player with respect to how he joined the team in the first place.

While this makes sense as a simplifying assumption, one thing it does is de-emphasize the way the Yankees leverage their money. Sure, the Yankees did a nice job in drafting Jeter and Posada and in signing Rivera and Williams as amateur free agents, but the fact is many teams would not have been able to retain them all past their 6th year of service time - nevermind also going out and sign a whack of other premium free agents, nevermind also repeatedly taking advantage of star players being salary-dumped.

If you look at Jeter, Williams, Rivera, and Posada as free agent acquisitions rather than home grown at this point, the Yankee Win Share percentage from free agents jumps from a reasonable 32.0% to a huge 59.1%. The only other teams in this neighbourhood are the Mariners, Dodgers, Giants, and Mets; none of these 4 have any homegrown players retained into their free agent years on huge contracts.
Jonny German - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#157110) #
Ken Rosenthal has an article at Fox Sports that contradicts Ringolsby's claim that free agent compensation is gone.
Magpie - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#157111) #
this makes sense as a simplifying assumption... [BUT!}

Well, I like to keep it simple. Obviously Oakland might have liked to keep one or two of the guys who've walked away.

The only Yankee among the home-grown crew who's ever been a free agent is Bernie Williams, who falls into the Konerko category - he became a free agent and re-signed with his last team. Jeter, Posada, and Rivera all got locked up before it ever came to that. If they were to be counted as free agents, so would Roy Halladay who now has more than 7 years service and would have been FA eligible after the 2005 season.

We could break all this down further I guess. Separate out the Konerko-Williams type free agents, and define an additional category for guys like Jeter and Halladay, I suppose...

But some other time!
Jonny German - Sunday, October 22 2006 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#157116) #
If they were to be counted as free agents, so would Roy Halladay

Absolutely. That's why I looked at the other teams that have a very high percentage of their Win Shares coming from free agents.
AWeb - Monday, October 23 2006 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#157128) #

I'd guess that LaRussa didn't push the issue because it seemed so likely Rogers wasn't trying to cheat on purpose. I mean, a big muddy smear on your pitching hand? I usually hate this kind of reasoning, but it seems way too obvious, even for crazy Kenny Rogers. It was good of LaRussa just to bring it to the attention of the umps and hence Rogers, rather than putting the umps in an awful position of having to decide whether or not to eject Rogers for it.

An open question: do professional  pitchers ever use a slightly sticky substance in the cold on their hands just to get a better grip on the ball, aside from the rosin bag?? Batters use pine tar, but why couldn't a pitcher use a less sticky, clear substance if it didn't get on the ball to a significant degree? I stopped pitching at 13, but I always liked my hands to be a little dirty (and of course, the balls at that age were usually not perfectly smooth), espescially in the cold.

Magpie - Monday, October 23 2006 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#157129) #
perhaps it is professional courtesy

Not from LaRussa, he complains when the runner on second steals his signs.

Gregg Zaun flatly said during the broadcast "It's pine tar" and that Rogers' explanation (combination of the rosin bag and moisture from blowing on his hand) was a load of hooey. But I didn't notice that it made any difference to his pitching after Rogers cleaned it off.
costanza - Tuesday, October 24 2006 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#157174) #
7 different teams in 7 different years as champions (albeit before that was 2 in 5 years), is pretty damn good - no sport has done it before, not hockey, basketball, or football.

Of course, this is easier in modern times, with so many more teams, but MLB did have 10 in 10 years from 1978 to 1987

NYY, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, LA, StL, Baltimore, Detroit, KC, NYM, Minnesota

(9 in 9 years from '82 - '90)
Where Talent Comes From | 32 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.