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They're evil, they're imperial, they're coming to town.


Let's not talk about them. I have some random, disconnected thoughts about Toronto GMs whose last names begin with the first letter of the alphabet.

Oh, that would include Pat Gillick's successor? Let's confine the discussion to this millennium. You see, I wanted to make a pretty picture. Just to see if I still knew how...

Yes! I can do it! I can still fly!

Let's not read too much into this, there was just a piece of symmetry I liked: in the third year, each man's team went 73-89. (On the occasion, I gave Atkins a D+ for his season and Anthopoulos an E and man, did I get flack for that!)

Before his fourth year Anthopoulos made his big trades with the Mets and Marlins. Atkins, of course, is scorching the earth and starting over.

Anthopoulos' term certainly wasn't a disaster, as someone suggested the other day. It ended with the 2015 post-season, which I say was worth it. No, it wasn't as good as a championship, which is what justified trading Jeff Kent's future† for one month of David Cone. But I still think it was worth trading† Matt Boyd's (and maybe Daniel Norris') future for two months of David Price. It was loads and loads of fun and excitement. Which is what we're here for. We'll always have Game Five.

Lord knows, it was way, way better than... oh, the 1991 post-season. (1985? Hey, we're just happy to be here, although blowing a 3-1 lead still hurts. 1989? The scrappy underdogs who started 12-24, fired the manager, and fought all the way back to win a weak division just to get blown away by the eventual WS champs? No matter. That was the most loveable Jays team ever! But 1991 left a sour and nasty aftertaste.)

Atkins and Anthopoulos† inherited very different situations, of course.

Anthopoulos took over a team that wasn't nearly as bad as their 75-87 record in 2009 made them look. Of course, the very first thing he was obliged to do was trade away his best player, and to a particular destination. Which is a problem, indeed. But what happened? The 2009 Jays had gone 17-15 in Roy Halladay's starts. So Shaun Marcum came back from missing a year, took over as the Opening Day starter, and the 2010 Jays went 17-14 in his 31 starts. Go figure. Anthopoulos' first team went 85-79, and it turned out to be the best team he'd have here until his final season.

Atkins took over a team that - well, were they really as good as their 93-69 record? Especially when you take away David Price? Maybe they were really just a middle of the pack team that got insanely hot (31-10) for six weeks? Or were they even better than the record suggested? They were simply awful (15-28) in close games, which is largely a matter of Luck. And they did make a positive habit of beating the other team senseless (37-12 in blowouts), which is a sign of Quality. I think we're still trying to figure that team out. They did have enough left the following year to get themselves into the Wild Card game, although the warning signs were flashing even then.

Pretty much everything Anthopoulos' did during his first four years elicited variations on the same response: "AA is a Ninja!" And within a couple of years we were all singing along with Peggy Lee. Is that all there is, Brett Lawrie? Colby Rasmus? Jose Reyes? R.A. Dickey? Anthopoulos loved the big, splashy move when he started his GM career but by 2014, after none of them had quite worked out as planned, he'd grown wary himself.

Pretty much everything Atkins has done so far has also elicited variations on the same response: "What the hell is he doing?"

Well, it's a tough gig.

The Yankees have been pummelled, absolutely devastated, by injuries. It hasn't broken their stride one little bit. Fringe players and assorted ne'er-do-wells put on the pinstripes and play like All-Stars. Gio Urshela? Are you kidding me? They've won their last 8 games. Let's break that off, OK?

Matchups!

Thu 8 Aug - German (14-2, 3.98) vs Pannone (2-4, 5.98)
Fri 9 Aug - Happ (9-6, 5.24) vs Reid-Foley (1-2, 2.49)
Sat 10 Aug - Tanaka (7-6, 4.93) vs Waguespack (3-1, 4.00)
Sun 11 Aug - TBD vs Thornton (4-7, 5.55)




Yankees at Blue Jays, 8-11 Aug | 207 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#379349) #
No TBDs for the home nine!  They're rolling now.
hypobole - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#379354) #
Remember when Urshela was a Jay ,the report was good glove, can't hit?

This year, his 136 wRC+ ranks 22nd of 205 batters with 300 PA's. But defensively, 27 3B's have played 500 innings. Urshela ranks 24th of those 27 per FG.



scottt - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#379355) #
The taller they are the harder they fall.

In 2015, the Jays were just .500 at the deadline. Maybe any other team in the division could have traded all their prospects to make a run for it. That's pretty much what Baltimore tried to do the following year. Of course the Rays don't work like that. The Red Sox are almost there though. Betts has one more year before he's a free agent. He does not want an extension. Will they trade him over the winter for a haul? They just won 108 games! What will the fans say?
If Boston decides to rebuild, will the Jays have a shot at a 100 win season?

It looks like the Yanks will use an opener on Sunday as CC just had a cortisone shot in his knee.
They've optioned Tarpley and recalled Chance Adams--whom the Jays rookies must be familiar with.
Gary Sanchez is on rehab. He could be back Saturday.
Torres is day to day with a core injury.
EE has a broken wrist.
Voit has an hernia, so Mike Ford plays first base.
Hicks is out until September, so the 4th outfielder is Mike Tauchman as Aaron Judge is back--or is he at DH?
Breyvik Velera has been their UT infielder since July 7.
They also play Cameron Maybin in the outfield and their backup catcher--who will probably not play in Toronto--is Kyle Higashioka.


Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#379356) #
Reese McGuire gets another start today, and Derek Fisher is in centerfield.  Domingo German does not have significant platoon splits...
scottt - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#379357) #
Let's not forget that this is the players weekend.

McGuire will be known as Pieces. Nice.
And my favourite, Hernandez will become Mr. Seeds. Quite appropriate.

Jevant - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#379358) #
I'm not totally understanding this sudden need to cut Jansen's starts, after he finally seemed to be picking it up a bit. McGuire cannot hit.
scottt - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#379359) #
The bottom of the Yankees lineup will be:
Maybin
Tauchman
Romine
Ford
Velera

Not that scary, if the strike zone does not change between innings.

Gerry - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#379360) #
Zach Godley added, Brock Stewart optioned.
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#379361) #
So Hernandez and Drury and today's Designated Sitters.
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#379362) #
Let's not forget that this is the players weekend.

I have to believe that Da Box, which christened Reed Johnson as "Sparky" and Eric Hinske as "Dude" could have come up with far, far better than what the players will be wearing on their backs. Although it is a shame that "42 Years" wouldn't really work for anyone on the active roster.
JB21 - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#379363) #
FYI players weekend is Aug 23-25
scottt - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#379364) #
OK, I guess I jumped the gun.
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#379366) #
The bottom of the Yankees lineup

Yeah, but now they're wearing pinstripes and Everything Is Different.

In Colorado, Tauchman hit .153/.265/.203 but he's a Yankee now: .294/.372/.554

and we surely knew who Cameron Maybin was after 12 years and 7 ddifferent teams: .254/.322/.368. But here he goes, like he's a True Yankee or something: .327/.406/.540
bpoz - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#379367) #
To go for it in 2015 AA made spectacular moves. FA Martin. Trade Donaldson. Trade deadline Mega deal involving Tulo. Also a big deal involving D Price. The results were 93 wins and a fantastic 2+ month run.

Atkins From the 2018 trade deadline. 2018 trade deadline he quietly amassed a quantity of near ready arms. In the off season he made the team much younger. At the 2019 trade deadline traded his best players for younger players. He tried unsuccessfully (failed badly) to explain that younger players were cheaper and provided more years of control than older players. Of course NYY and Boston are laughing at him because they boast older, superior and more expensive players with many years of control like G Stanton and J Ellsbury. D Price for Boston.

They are both mysterious. Nobody understands them.
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#379368) #
I'm not totally understanding this sudden need to cut Jansen's starts

Could be anything. Maybe Maile's coming back soon, so Montoyo wants McGuire to get into some games while he's here. Maybe Maile's not coming back soon, and Montoyo wants to see what McGuire can do. (All managers are the same - you can talk to them until you're blue in the face. They still need to see it with their own eyes.) Maybe Montoyo just wants to give Jansen a break because it's August and like any catcher at this time of year his body is basically one gigantic bruise. (I know, I've used the line before. I like it, sue me!)
Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#379369) #
We can certainly do better than "Fonky" for Wilmer Font.  If you think he's odd, then Wonky.  If you want to play on his last name, then Courier.  But surely you can do better than fonky.

And El K for VGJ?  What's with that- it sounds like an insult?  How about something like Terminator Smile? Or the Happy Hitman or something like that.  Or just Plakata.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#379370) #
Depending on what kind of shape heís in, we could refer to him as large or medium Font. I wouldnít want to typecast him, though.
mathesond - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#379371) #
El Kid
Spifficus - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#379372) #
Font could go with Sweet Buttermilk, written in Sweet Buttermilk (the font, not the substance. Weirdos.)
scottt - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#379373) #
Yeah, he missed an opportunity to be Bold.
scottt - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#379374) #
That reminds me that there's a new font based on gerrymandering called Ugly Gerry. No offense intended.
Spifficus - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#379375) #
Oh my god, that's horrid!
/whispers I love it!
greenfrog - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#379376) #
The front office probably has a 12-point plan for helping him improve his performance.
pubster - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#379377) #
So how many runs do the jays allow this series?

Im hoping for 15 or fewer.
Gerry - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#379378) #
McGuire caught yesterday, Font and Stewart pitched really well.

McGuire caught on Monday, Waguespack threw six shutout innings.

McGuire caught on Saturday, Pannone had nine K's (but did have one bad inning)

McGuire caught Waguespack's previous start, one run allowed in six innings.

Before that he caught Sanchez' last start, his ten K start.


Managers note these things. It could be coincidental, or not. Remember Jeff Mathis?
pubster - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#379379) #
Sorry make that 20 or fewer. Didnt realize it was a 4 game series.
PeterG - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#379380) #
I think Gerry may be on to something. My observation is that McGuire is an outstanding receiver.
Nigel - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#379381) #
Its possible the 2015 team was just the product of a lucky end of year run. However, if I remember correctly (and this really is just off memory) the team had one of the best run differentials in all of baseball at the trade deadline in 2015 even though they had a roughly .500 record. In my view, the 2015 team was a very good team. The 2016 team was still good but had obvious flaws.
dan gordon - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#379383) #
Interesting interview with Shapiro on Prime Time Sports today. Here's a quote: "when the wins are most meaningful, whether it's dollars or players, we're not going to spare any cost to get over the hump." He was talking about wins becoming more important when you get to the point where you can win 87-90, rather than low 80's, and was referring to trading prospects or signing big ticket free agents. Also mentioned producing perhaps 3 rotation guys from their current prospect pool and going outside the organization for 1 or 2 more.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#379384) #
Translation: no significant free agent spending this off-season.  To which I give a big raspberry. The club has underspent and ought to be preparing to win in 2020. Commitment- phobic management for a cheap owner.
Nigel - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#379385) #
I totally agree that that is Shapiro priming the market for the team spending no money this offseason. Iím more agnostic about that news because Iím probably the low man around here about how close this team is to being competitive (with the recent fire sale, Iím not sure even 2021 is realistic).
SK in NJ - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#379386) #
Galvis at DH and Smoak at 1B in August during a possible 100 loss season doesn't make any sense to me, especially since Drury is actually starting to show signs of life and Hernandez has been good since coming back from the minors in June.

I know the lack of August trade deadline is likely forcing this, but I don't see why a DFA can't happen in this case, especially with Smoak who provides no real value at all (at least Galvis has an option for 2020 and can help with Bichette's transition).
Nigel - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#379387) #
I know McGuireís minor league hitting numbers arenít promising but Iíve thought his major league cameos have actually looked pretty good.
Spifficus - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#379388) #
I think Bo has a little bit of power...
85bluejay - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#379389) #
Since I think 2020 is another building year, I'm not upset about lack of spending - I hope 2020 will help sort out the inhouse pitching - progress isn't linear, so I'm ok with letting the team show it's ready to contend before significant spending in FA and/or spending prospect capital .
SK in NJ - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#379390) #
The funny thing is, free agency has become a lot more appealing from a value standpoint than it was previously. If the Jays wanted to add 2-3 capable big league starters (non-aces), it probably wouldn't break the bank to do so, at least from a term standpoint (the AAV might still be high but not unreasonably so). I hope they at least consider that. A couple of 2016 Happ/Estrada types would be welcome additions to the 2020 staff.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#379391) #
I would rather if the club signed on to one Gerrit Cole type myself. Ain't happening. No way, no how.
dan gordon - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#379392) #
Wow, another all time major league record for Bichette. First player ever to have a double in 9 straight games.

I think we will see the Jays try to pick up a mid level starter in the off season, somebody who could be in a competitive rotation, but not a top end guy. Maybe after next year they go after a big fish. Shapiro seemed to be feeling that the team is close to being very competitive.
Nigel - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#379393) #
Totally agree. Try and acquire elite talent when you can. How about using the next two years when you have almost no payroll obligations to sign an elite talent to a heavily front loaded deal? Zero signs that Rogers would go for that of course.
grjas - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#379394) #
Iím probably the low man around here about how close this team is to being competitive (with the recent fire sale, Iím not sure even 2021 is realistic).

No youíre not the only one. This team isnít ready for 1 or 2 high priced FAs yet- they need at least a couple of more years. And why would a pitcher like Cole want to sign a deal with a 100 loss team?
pubster - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#379395) #
From an article on theScore:

Shapiro said that Toronto has "(financial) flexibility to (add) starting pitching this offseason" and will "be opportunistic."
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#379396) #
I would rather if the club signed on to one Gerrit Cole type myself.

It doesn't seem likely that guys like that will want to sign up with a team that just lost 90 games. I assume the team will have to get back to respectability before you can start thinking about that kind of target.
PeterG - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#379397) #
I agree that Smoak should be placed on release waivers.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#379398) #
By sunday, this jays pitching staff could be on fumes and there isn't much reinforcements on the farm to call up.
dan gordon - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#379399) #
Exactly, Magpie. Sign a #3 type this offseason, win 80+ games, and then go for one the big names the next year.
SK in NJ - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#379400) #
Cole would be ideal, especially with the huge amount of payroll flexibility and cheap roster, but it's so unlikely to happen that I don't even think it's worth bringing up.
Nigel - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#379401) #
I would like to go on record as saying my McGuire comment came when he was 1-1. Lol.

If you think this team could win 80+ games simply by adding a no.3 starter, why wouldnít you be in favour of going after big game? If this roster, with only a no 3 starter addition, could get to .500 youíre really saying this team is close to be competitive. If that were the case, they should spend because they have one of the cheapest rosters in baseball. My perspective is that this team is closer to a top 5 pick in 2021 than .500.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#379402) #
"Be opportunistic" sounds a lot like "wait until close to spring training and see who is still available at a discount." ("Opportunistic" is a word we've heard Atkins use in the past.)

Anyway, it's all blather. Let's see what moves the team actually executes when the time comes. And I'm not in favour of spending money for the sake of spending money. Of course, if someone good is available at a fair price, by all means, go get him.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#379403) #
McGuire is now 4/4 with a double, HR, and two singles. Probably won't get another plate appearance, unfortunately.
Mike D - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#379404) #
Boshers is the type of no-hoper that is simply stealing development opportunities (aka major league playing time) from players with a prayer of actually developing.
Nigel - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#379405) #
If Gurriel is injured we are likely to see an all sub .300 OBP, +30% k% OF.
dan gordon - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#379406) #
"why wouldnít you be in favour of going after big game"

As was pointed out upthread, no big ticket guy is going to want to come to a team that has a season as bad as the Jays this year. When you're a #1 guy, you can go pretty much wherever you want. The Jays should get as good as they can get. If you then have an 80+ win season, you then have more credibility as a contender, and would be more likely to be attractive to a top line pitcher
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#379407) #
Boshers is the type of no-hoper that is simply stealing development opportunities

True, although I can't get too worked up about... what is it now, four innings? I won't care too much until he's pitched in 10 games. And then I'll start yelling, the same way I yelled about Derek Law. And on the bright side, Bosher's exactly the kind of guy I like to toss to the wolves when the team is getting blown out by Murderers Row.
Nigel - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#379408) #
If the market thought the Jays could be an 80+ team next year (with the prospect of better the next year given the youth) they wouldnít actually have the recruiting problems you described. Even if they did, the Jays could actually overpay elite talent in the short term to overcome that reluctance. Anyway, that isnít going to happen so I agree it isnít worth discussing.
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#379409) #
If Gurriel is injured

Chisholm on the Twitter reports that he didn't pull anything, they think it was just a cramp.
hypobole - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#379410) #
So Bo now holds the major league record of 9 straight games with double. Also the 1st rookie with extra base hits in 9 games since Ted Williams in 1939.
dan gordon - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#379411) #
"If the market thought the Jays could be an 80+ team next year (with the prospect of better the next year given the youth) they wouldnít actually have the recruiting problems you described."

Exactly. The market won't think of the Jays that way, so they will need to look at the tier 2 type pitchers. The #1 guys won't be interested. Up to the Jays to prove it next year. For that, I think they need to add a pitcher or 2.
hypobole - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#379412) #
Here's a Ripley's. Edwin Jackson is back in the majors.
Spifficus - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#379415) #
Also, whoever gets the elite talent is already going to have to overpay (The Winner's Curse). The Jays would have to overpay the overpay while compensating for other factors (tax rate, etc) that tend to put them at a disadvantage as well.

So, for someone like Cole, what does that look like? He looks like a more durable and younger Strasburg going forward, so his normal overpay where he's the only Ace available is probably the Price deal, if not more. What's an overpay on that overpay?
dalimon5 - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:48 AM EDT (#379416) #
I don't think Cole is of any interest to the Jays. He's too old for an overpay, record-setting contract which he surely is gonna get after this year's magnificent performance. He probably gets David Price money with Scherzer deferred payment to make the overpay portion work. He's just not worth that contract because of his age and the Jays tragectory.

I think the Jays will trade one or both of Hernandez and Gurriel...it's the only way I can rationalize the Fisher trade...

I predict they sign Castellanos or Puig and go after Alex Wood, Odorizzi or Wheeler on a 4 year contract with the idea that that pitcher shifts to back end duties in year 3/4. Hamels, Bumgarner and Cole won't come north.
dalimon5 - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:50 AM EDT (#379417) #
And I also think the budget will be a lot higher after they sign their core to long term deals this off season similar to how they did in Cleveland.
John Northey - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 04:16 AM EDT (#379418) #
This will be an interesting offseason. Who is added, who is dumped, who gets playing time in 2020.

Bo: 408/453/837 over 11 games. Wow at 21.
Vlad: 273/344/457 over 85 games. Nice for a 20 year old.
Gurriel: 279/331/548 over 79 games. Solid.
Biggio: 211/341/388 over 60 games. Hrm, nice OBP but that BA is scary low.
Jansen: 205/275/353 over 87 games. Lots of chances but that bat is not doing much. Last 30 is drastically better: 265/312/539 over 102 AB's.

FYI: Tellez in AAA has hit 366/454/720 so far - might need to give him another chance soon. A shame they couldn't get a bucket of balls for Smoak - 206/349/399 - ugh for a 1B/DH who is a free agent. A release makes sense - let Tellez play. Sadly I suspect (for Tellez) the Jays are doing the old service time juggle. 27 days of experience pre-2019, so leave him down until September and you gain another year of control. From a pure logic standpoint it makes sense. As a fan it sucks right now much like Vlad not getting a September call-up last year did.

Btw, looking at Buffalo I see 44 pitchers used so far - yikes! New Hampshire has used 31.
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 06:22 AM EDT (#379419) #
The Tigers are playing for 100 losses.
Mize (currently #2 prospect in baseball), Manning ( their #2 prospect), Skubal (their #4 prospect) and Faedo (#9) are all in AA. They have a couple of prospects in AAA, Burrows and Funkhouser, but they have ERA over 5 and 7.

scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 06:44 AM EDT (#379420) #
I don't think they'll sign a pitcher with a draft pick attached.

That certainly limits the possibilities.
Everybody stood pat at the deadline. No pitcher changed hand, so pretty much everybody should be getting a QO.

Jhoulys Chacin? Michael Wacha? Hamels?
Paul D - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 06:51 AM EDT (#379421) #
I said this in the other thread, but service time manipulation for 24 year-old 1b doesn't seem needed. If you think he should be up, call him up. The odds that he's in the big leagues, yet alone in Toronto , innsix years are tiny, so give him the exposure now
Jonny German - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 06:54 AM EDT (#379422) #
Iím generally very quick to roll my eyes at the corporate blather than comes out of Atikins and Shapiros mouths, but ďopportunisticĒ might actually be something theyíre good at when it comes to pitchers. Relievers, anyway.

2016: Joe Biagaini, Jason Grilli, Joaquin Benoit

2017: Dominic Leone, Joe Smith

2018: Seunghwan Oh, Tyler Clippard

2019: Daniel Hudson, David Phelps

Granted there have also been plenty of arms cycled through who did not perform, but the above represent a good number of innings at very low acquisition cost, and most of the best arms in the bullpens of the last 4 years.
Paul D - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#379423) #
Actually, who's the last position player the Jays developed who they extended when he hit free agency? There's probably someone obvious but i can't think of anyone in the last ten years or so. Or pitcher for that matter
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#379424) #
The problem with Smoak is that if you release players like him in August, it removes incentives from teams to trade for them in July.

McGuire and Jansen should be roughly 50/50 as they were when Jansen was doing damage in Buffalo.

There should be some news, probably not good, on Borucki today.

In other things worth following, Stroman will start against the Nationals today and Sanchez will start against Baltimore on Saturday.

scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#379425) #
The last position players developed by Toronto were Goins, Pillar, Lind, Arencibia, Snider, Hill, Wells and Rios.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#379426) #
-- Gio Urshelaa never had an OPS of over .608 in his brief career. His OPS this year is .910 and that's not including last night's 2 home run game.

-- Reece McGuire is a fine receiver although he let one pitch scoot between his legs in last night's game. He should be an upgrade at catcher next year, not so much defensively over Maille, but who can't hit more than Luke Maille ?

-- Vlad Jr. seems to be back to swinging at pitches way out of the strike zone. His hit was a groundball scorched at 118 MPH coming off the bat.

-- Cavan Biggio has a keen eye at the plate. He had a called third strike in one at-bat that was clearly a few inches off the plate. As a rookie, he's not being given many breaks by the umpires.
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#379427) #
Godley is a little underwhelming.
90-91 fastball, 88 cutter, 83 changeup, 81 curve.

If they're going with soft stuff, maybe take a flyer on Keuchel.

Paul D - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#379430) #
The last position players developed by Toronto were Goins, Pillar, Lind, Arencibia, Snider, Hill, Wells and Rios.

And I believe the only ones on that list the Jays signed past their Free Agent years were Wells and Rios, more than ten years ago. Now, hopefully that will change, and Bichette and Vlad, etc, will be awesome and want to sign long-term with Toronto, but my point is just that I'd bet huge amounts of money that Tellez is not a Blue Jay in 2025 or 2026, so there's no point in worrying about his service time.

scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#379432) #
The Jays regretted extending Wells and Rios and have not regretted not extending the others.

It would make sense for a guy like Tellez to sign a team friendly extension.
At the same time, it also makes sense to have him year to year to keep him motivated.
It doesn't look like a guy like Bo will need any type of financial motivation.

There's no rush to extend anybody until they reach arbitration.
Nobody knows what the next CBA will look like.


Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#379434) #
Why would it be rational for a pitcher like Cole to consider a good financial offer from Toronto seriously?

It's likely to be a 6 year or longer contract- an informed pitcher is going to know that a club's W/L record the previous year is a poor predictor of performance over the following 6; he'd form his own judgment about the talent core that is there (an informed pitcher would also ask someone like Atkins or Shapiro- as Kawhi did- "who else are you going to get- it looks to me like you need a third baseman or a centerfielder").

In the particular case of Cole, I can't see Atkins or Shapiro coming to a deal with Cole's agent, Scott Boras.  There's a personality clash there that would make it extremely unlikely regardless where the Jays were on the win curve. 
hypobole - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#379435) #
AA did sign Lind to an extension. Also extended Ricky Romero.
uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#379436) #
It's a pretty chart, Magpie, but maybe you could have included a "Year Zero", too.

Ross: .574
Alex: .463
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#379438) #
The Romero extension is another one that didn't end well.

The Lind extension was the minimum for his pre-arb year with a signing bonus that brought it up to 1M, 5M for each of his 3 arb years and club options for 7, 7.5 and 8M after that.

On May 17 of the 3rd year of that contract, with still 12M owed, Lind was sent back to AAA, passed through waivers unclaimed and was removed from the 40 roster, so AA could promote Robert Coello, who pitched 6+ innings and allowed 9 earned runs in relief. Lind was then called back in June.

Lind then had 2 productive years and was traded for a relief pitcher named Marco Estrada.

scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#379439) #
Is that really zero? AA was Assistant General Manager from 2005 to 2009.

grjas - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#379443) #
The issue for Cole would be the pitchers behind him. Other then than one year of Shoemaker, thereís no truly proven starters. The Jays need a couple of years to prove thereís some MLB level starting depth - at least four-in the system to make them believable as contenders, and, I would think, palatable to a tier 1 pitcher.
Jonny German - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#379444) #
Actually, who's the last position player the Jays developed who they extended when he hit free agency?

If the point is that the Jays have been awful at developing players worth keeping, fair enough. But if itís about whether or not they ever keep anyone around, the wording is unfair. Bautista and Encarnacion were not per se developed by the Blue Jays, but it was while they were in Toronto that they became players worth extending, and both were.

On the pitching side Marco Estrada is a similar case.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#379446) #
The 2014 Houston Astros went 70-92.  They were outscored by their opponents by 94 runs.  They had Altuve who had a very fine age 24 season, and Springer who joined the club early in the year also at age 24.  They had a 19 year old Carlos Correa in the minor leagues.  And they had Dallas Keuchel and a a first-rounder named Lance McCullers Jr. in A+ ball and struggling.  Because of their poor record, they were able to draft Alex Bregman in 2015. 

They would have been a good bet for a pitcher in Cole's situation.  They ended up with the wild card in 2015.  The 5 year potential of the players in the organization in Houston after the 2014 season does not seem to me to be better than the Blue Jays at the end of 2019.  They did however have Jeff Luhnow in the GM's chair, and he is/was in my view the best in the game. 
AWeb - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#379447) #
Toronto would be more than capable of signing Cole, if they offered the most money. Might need to adjust for tax rates to make sure an offer is the most "net" money as well. But every free agent has a price they won't say no to, regardless of the rest of the team around them, it's just a matter of finding that price. If you went to Cole and Strasburg and said - "we'll give you $40 million each, for the next two years", would they turn it down? They have nothing else to spend money on except larger bonuses and stock options for Rogers.

The utter lack of salary commitments for the next few years makes it kinda' dumb not to spend at this point - Grichuk and Gurriel are the only guys not in arbitration or pre-arb, neither of which makes much money, and Giles is the only one in Arb status who would be worth keeping at his going rate. None of the pending free agents are worth considering. In 2020, Tulo will be the highest paid player (14 million more, unless his retirement changed that somehow), again, unless they sign someone else. The Jays could sign (or trade for) multiple free agent starters and still spend less than they have in the very recent past. Wasting several good years from your young, cheap, position players, is the worst possible thing to try. By the time the team builds a good rotation internally (if ever), everyone else will need to be paid.

The current position players appear to be more than good enough to prevent a true tank, so start throwing some money around. Take on contracts from teams near the luxury tax line. This is why I came around to giving Stroman a bunch of money instead of trading him. They need starters, he seemed willing to stay (but the team didn't seem willing to consider paying him) and basically no team ever "flukes" their way into a good starting rotation with pieces like Shoemaker, Bucholtz, etc. The guys who are competing for rotation spots right now are all easy to push into lower rotation spots or the bullpen, or the waiver wire, if you find something better.

Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#379449) #
Incidentally, what I would be doing with the back end of the rotation is tandems.  Let's say you end up with 2 pitchers who you are confident getting 6-7 innings on average.  Then you tandem the other 3 spots in the rotation.  That gives you 8 pitchers covering about 1120 innings (2 X 200, 3 X240).  You need to get 320 innings from your 4 relievers, and any minors call-ups etc.  Seems doable. 

This sets you up nicely for the playoffs, as it allows you to leverage the 2 top pitchers performance when it matters.  Obviously, it's better if you have 3 starters can give you 6+ good or better innings.
92-93 - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#379453) #
Fans should always want their team to spend money on talent, because in reality the money saved today isn't spent tomorrow.

Take Donaldson, for example. Instead of trading him at his ultimate low the Jays could have given him a qualifying offer. The absolute worst case scenario would have been that he accepted it and had a miserable, injury-riddled season, but they would only be out an additional 10M over what they paid for Smoak. The upside would have been receiving an excellent prospect at the deadline while he's hitting .264/.381/.526 and playing good defense.

They could also use the payroll flexibility to front-load contracts for Guerrero and Bichette, giving the team some cost certainty through their arbitration years and opening up room in the budget for pitchers down the road. Even if those kids want to bet on themselves and not sign away any of their free agent years they would probably be interested in some money upfront instead of making only 550K the next 3 seasons.
Magpie - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#379455) #
but maybe you could have included a "Year Zero", too.

I wrote about those years instead.
jerjapan - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#379457) #
Things can change so quickly in baseball, with these elite young hitters playing well, we could contend sooner rather than later,  and our salary commitments going forward have been well managed to get the right player at the right time.  That's Cole in my opinion - I'd rather overpay for one elite player than sign a few solid vets to manageable deals. 

I continue to think the 'players don't want to come to Toronto'.  If taxes were the only factor, everyone would sign in Miami.  If the FO thinks that pitchers won't sign in TO, than they should have kept and resigned Stro. 

How's this for a 'what-if' - if the Jays got Flaherty for JD as rumoured, we keep our pitchers with more than a year of control at the deadline and we are a player in FA this offseason and an wildcard contender next year.  We don't have any Flaherty types in the high minors, but if we get a few surprises - say Zeuch and a surprise contender become mid rotation starters next season, we just fast forwarded the rebuild by a year. 

so long story short, if Cole is the type of guy you want for our next contender - in one, two or even three years, make him a legit offer.  That's not an 'opportunistic' move though...
Paul D - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#379458) #
If the point is that the Jays have been awful at developing players worth keeping, fair enough. But if itís about whether or not they ever keep anyone around, the wording is unfair. Bautista and Encarnacion were not per se developed by the Blue Jays, but it was while they were in Toronto that they became players worth extending, and both were.

The only point I was trying to make was that it's silly to keep Tellez down for service time reasons (if that's what's happening), as it just won't matter.

dalimon5 - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#379459) #
Cole will sign the biggest deal total not the highest salary deal per year. Someone always makes an argument of "pay more for less years" but the free agent won't do that unless that's the last resort. Name a premium free agent that took a short term deal instead of a long term one that offered more money and security.
jerjapan - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#379461) #
It happens in basketball somewhat regularly with the elite guys.
greenfrog - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#379462) #
Cole might get something like 7/30 or 6/35. Hard to see the front office doing that.
dalimon5 - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#379463) #
"It happens in basketball somewhat regularly with the elite guys."

Agreed but we're talking MLB where it doesn't.
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#379465) #
They didn't want Donaldson at 3rd when Guerrero came up.
I'm not sure Donaldson would have brought back much at the deadline anyway.
Last year, Cleveland had to move guys around to fit him.
Who was looking for a 3rd baseman last month?

Magpie - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#379466) #
It happens in basketball somewhat regularly with the elite guys.

Basketball players, the stars anyway, are far more powerful than baseball players. No baseball player, not even Mike Trout, has the same impact on his team's performance as James Harden. Or LeBron James. Or Kawhi Leonard. Or any of at least a dozen other guys. No baseball player has as much to do with every play that happens in the game - except starting pitchers, who don't even play four games out of five.

And the players have figured that out and are beginning to function as their own GMs.
Gerry - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#379467) #
Clay Buchholz pitched two innings today in the GCL. He was followed by Jordan Romano. Both pitchers should be MLB ready in a couple of weeks.
grjas - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#379468) #
This is why I came around to giving Stroman a bunch of money instead of trading him

Exactly, especially given the mediocre return. Sounds like his demands were Exorbitant but who cares. They have minimal commitments for a few years out. And in Stroman, they had a guy who wanted to be here, unlike tier 1 FAs who would need a big time sales job to come... and Iím very skeptical they would at this point. These guys will be set for life where ever they sign, so the highest bidder is not guaranteed to win. Just ask Kawhi.
hypobole - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#379469) #
There are also different pay scales for years of service in basketball. Sometimes a shorter deal will get a player to a higher scale rather than signing longer term for less total money.

Bauer seems to be the only MLB player who wants to bet on himself on a yearly basis. And we'll see how long that lasts. Baseball layers will more often than not sign for the highest total, rather than AAV.
PeterG - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#379471) #
The news on Ryan Borucki is good. He had a procedure to remove bone spurs and is done for the season but should be 100% before spring training.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#379474) #
No baseball player, not even Mike Trout, has the same impact on his team's performance as James Harden. Or LeBron James. Or Kawhi Leonard. Or any of at least a dozen other guys.

That's probably an overstatement.  Mike Trout contributes 10 WAR per year.  That's between 1/4 and 1/5 of the amount necessary for a club.  If he didn't say "we need this player or that player" or else I'm moving on, it's not because he couldn't do so, it's because he didn't want to. 
pubster - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#379475) #
I don't mind the Jays trading Stroman for prospects, and then signing a pitcher who can replace Stroman.

The FO basically did this when they traded Aledmys Diaz for Trent Thornton and then signed Freddy Galvis who replaced Diaz and some.
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#379476) #
I don't know if it's good news.
They can pencil Borucki and Shoemaker at the top of the lineup for next year, but they better have a backup plan for each of them.

Nigel - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#379479) #
Shapiro keeps saying they want to build a consistent championship contender. I take that as an implied criticism of the previous FO but assuming heís serious, there are only two ways to accomplish that: year in and year out spend in the top 5 or petition MLB to move to the AL Central. So, Iíd like to see one of three things happen: Shapiro stop making this silly statement; the Jays start trying to sign the Coleís of this world; Shapiro start a concerted effort for a divisional move. The third is far and away the most attainable goal:)
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#379481) #
The 2015 team had a shortstop who was making lots of errors (eventually replaced), a hole in left field where they routinely played a DH (eventually patched, but with a bat that was weak for left field)  and was missing a regular second baseman for most of the year (so it was mostly Goins). They were killing lefties. The rotation was Dickie, Buehrle (who they couldn't wait to force into retirement), Estrada,  Hutchison (74 ERA+) plus 2 months of David Price and one of Stroman.

The bullpen was young, Osuna 20, Sanchez 22.

The 2016 team replaced Ben Revere with Michael Saunders who went from All-Stars to washed up in the second half.
Travis got hurt again, but I'd call that a wash.
Most of the hitters were worse, Martin, Tulo, Pillar and Bautista Are those flaws?
The rotation was Stroman, ERA champion Sanchez, 20 game winner Happ, Estrada and Dickie went from ace to 5th starter
The one flaw in the pen was that Chavez was better suited to spot starts which were not needed.
Otherwise Osuna, Biagini, Grilli, and Cecil got the job done beautifully. I think it was the best pen in the playoffs that year.






scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#379483) #
Just being a top 5 spender does not make a team a contender.

The idea is simply to not do any Dickie or Price type of trades.
Otherwise, they would still have Sindergaard, Norris and Boyd.

Maybe next year the hitters are good enough to contend and the pitchers are not.
Is that a bid deal? Those hitters will still be there in 6 years and there are several bats coming up in the system that could take their place if they are not able to extend them. So you trade only surplus guys, but you should wait until they reach maximum peak value or they're in danger of falling off the 40 roster.

Or they could trade the farm, maximize the payroll and be the next Phillies.

PeterG - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#379484) #
Why do so many assume that the young hitters will only be here 6 more years. It is quite plausible that most or all will at some point be extended. That was Shapiro's MO in Cleveland with less financial backing than he has here.
pubster - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#379485) #
How exciting would it be if the Jays had Syndergaard and Boyd right now!

Although the 2 playoff runs were also pretty exciting.

pubster - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#379486) #
Although Dickey wasn't really needed for the playoff runs.

And Price hurt the Jays in the playoffs.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#379487) #
There's a different lineup tonight-  Brandon Drury in CF, Derek Fisher in LF and Teoscar Hernandez at 1B, while  Danny Jansen catches SRF. 
Nigel - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#379488) #
Canít say the Drury to CF idea makes any sense to me but I give Hernandez at 1B a thumbs up. If (and itís still a big if) Hernandezís bat can play then he still needs a home. Maybe DH is the only choice but a 1B job share with Tellez wouldnít be a bad outcome. Again, all on the assumption that they arenít throwing in the towel on Vladdy at 3B.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#379489) #
Gurriel Jr. is going on the IL with a quad strain- no replacement for tonight's game. 
PeterG - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#379490) #
Gurriel is going on 10 day IL. Charlie says he will likely be replaced by Brock Stewart tomorrow which likely means a 2 man bench till this 20 game stretch is over next Wednesday.
AWeb - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#379492) #
Guerrero is 20 years old. His defense is currently terrible, but there is no reason it can't get better. The best 3b defenders right now, by fangraphs measures, are Chapman (not a pro yet at age 20), Arenado (in high A ball), Brian Anderson (not a pro yet), and Bryant (not a pro yet). I don't think Guerrero will turn out to be a top defender (currently the worst by the same measures), but he has literally years of learning and possible improvement ahead of him. If Pablo Sandoval could do it (A ball at age 20, as a catcher, learned 3b in the pros), I'm willing to wait a year or two before deciding it just isn't going to happen.
jerjapan - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#379493) #
"It happens in basketball somewhat regularly with the elite guys."

Agreed but we're talking MLB where it doesn't.
Thanks for the snark, but perhaps you should say hasn't.  Players and agents will evolve and change.  I'd bet you cash money that a top FA takes a surprising deal like the shorter term / higher AAV type you were discussing.  The idea that bottom line is the only factor - when you are talking about guys who are multimillionaires, a new generation of young people - just feels wrong to me - some of these guys are going to do things differently. 


Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#379494) #
For what it's worth, the position switch from catcher to third base is a common one (Bench moved there late in his career and Josh Donaldson of course did so).  Catchers invariably have good hands and usually pretty good arms, and Sandoval had both of those.  Guerrero Jr. has a good arm, but his hands aren't very good.  Guerrero Jr. has two things working against him- he's slow and he's going to get slower unless he loses a lot of weight and he doesn't have good hands. 

It reminds me of  Bill James' study of right-field to third base conversions.  Almost all of them didn't take (with Bob Elliott a notable exception) and the big issue, according to Bill, was that most righfielders lacked the fine skills that third baseman require.  Hands are a big part of that.  And it doesn't help that Guerrero Jr. is slower than your average right-fielder.  Now that I think of it, Pedro Guerrero had a similar skill set to Vladdy Jr.  His conversion didn't work. 
Parker - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#379495) #
Thanks for the snark, but perhaps you should say hasn't.Players and agents will evolve and change. I'd bet you cash money that a top FA takes a surprising deal like the shorter term / higher AAV type you were discussing. The idea that bottom line is the only factor - when you are talking about guys who are multimillionaires, a new generation of young people - just feels wrong to me - some of these guys are going to do things differently.
Parker - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#379496) #
The idea that bottom line is the only factor - when you are talking about guys who are multimillionaires, a new generation of young people - just feels wrong to me - some of these guys are going to do things differently.

This seems to come from your experience with this new generation of ballplayers, but that just feels wrong to me.
Parker - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#379497) #
Oops. Cat running over keyboard. Apologies.
92-93 - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#379498) #
Hernandez is in CF tonight.

Guerrero's size makes it very unlikely he will ever become a good defensive 3B, even if his hands (which are currently terrible) improve. The Jays would be doing him and their pitchers a favour by moving Vlad to 1B/DH and letting him concentrate on hitting instead of watching him make a defensive miscue on a daily basis. It worked for E5.

Drury has looked pretty competent at the hot corner and they should roll him out there everyday until the end of the season to see if he's a viable option moving forward.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#379499) #
Thanks 92-93.  Gameday had it posted as I had it, but it was more likely a Gameday error than a late change of plans. I personally would split the 3rd base job between Galvis and Drury, but your preference would be a lot better than what they are doing.
dan gordon - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#379500) #
I don't see the continued interest in Drury. Has he been better lately? Since June 8th, his OPS is .695. For the season, it's .681. This season, his road OPS is .652, for his career, it's .648. I think this is who he is.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#379501) #
The point is that he is a competent defender and a useful part for next year. I mean, I'd love it if they signed Rendon and Cole, but that is not on the agenda. Kevin Smith might be an answer later in the year.
92-93 - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#379502) #
Since July 2nd Drury is hitting .296/.326/.593 with 3 doubles, 7 HRs, 4 walks, and 15 Ks in 86 PA.
pooks137 - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#379503) #

Cole will sign the biggest deal total not the highest salary deal per year. Someone always makes an argument of "pay more for less years" but the free agent won't do that unless that's the last resort. Name a premium free agent that took a short term deal instead of a long term one that offered more money and security.

Cespedes' deals with the Mets come to mind as weird deals with both team and player opting for AAV over term

Cespedes originally re-signed a 3 yr/75 million deal with the Mets prior to 2016 at age 30 with an opt-out after one year. They re-signed him after picked up at the deadline in 2015 from the Tigers for Michael Fulmer.

Cespedes was coming off a 4.0 bWAR season with career earnings of 36 million at age 30 from his IFA deal from Cuba signed with the As expiring.

He had another good year in 2016, slashing a .884 OPS and putting up another 3.1 bWAR.

Cespedes opted out after one year and went back to FA again with a qualifying offer from the Mets. He ultimately re-signed a new 4-year deal at 110 million with the Mets until 2021.

Cots says the AAV of 27.5 million tied A-Rod for the second most ever at the time, only behind Miguel Cabrera's 29 million. Considering Cabrera and A-Rod were on traditional lengthy deals and Cespedes was good but not a franchise player, Cespedes and the Mets likely compromised on high AAV/moderate term as opposed to the traditional FA contract where players and agents want to lock in term.

Not sure if Cespedes actually had any other offers with more term/greater total value.

Nigel - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#379504) #
From the behind the C camera you could see that Hernandezís jump on that Gregorious single was, politely, poor.
Nigel - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#379505) #
Iím not a believer that thereís anything more than what weíve seen to date with Drury. But, with rosters expanding next year, I would rather see them keep him around as the super utility player than try to turn every other prospect into a multi position player. Drury appears to be able to play 3 or 4 positions reasonably well. So long as he isnít an every day player he could be useful. My current issue is over usage rather than absolute utility.
SK in NJ - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#379507) #
I have said before I'd have no issues moving Vlad to 1B and having Drury start at 3B until they find a better option there (either wait for Groshans or trade for someone better). Drury has graded out very positively defensively at 2B/3B this season, and from the little I have seen of him at 3B, he passes the eye test as well. The FO clearly feels like there is something in his bat, which frankly I haven't seen yet and don't really see it, but the move would be more of a lottery ticket type move at third (hope he turns into something) with the main reasoning being moving Vlad off 3B and onto a less demanding position. I think the latter should be done sooner than later.
pubster - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#379511) #
Drury has been hitting well since July 1st. Check out his monthly splits. His k% is down and ops is up.
pubster - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#379512) #
ďSince July 2nd Drury is hitting .296/.326/.593 with 3 doubles, 7 HRs, 4 walks, and 15 Ks in 86 PA.Ē

Thanks 92-93!

It really shows how bad we are at evaluating players (me included) that we havent noticed drury has been great for 5-6 weeks.
uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#379513) #
I actually think it shows how good we are at it that we don't get excited by every 86ab hot streak.
pubster - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#379514) #
I dont think ppl even noticed he's on a hot streak.

The hot streak also increases the probability that he's figured something out - which is something Jays fans should be excited about.
Nigel - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#379516) #
Iím not a believer in Hernandez but man did he have 4 good ABs tonight regardless of the outcome.

scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#379517) #
My type of game. Love Yankees fans with long faces.
Can't get enough of Bab when he's grumpy.
Should Gardner be pissed at Maybin? Will he be?

Hernandez has had a really good second half so far.
Grichuk too, but what does Teoscar need to do to be in the post show?
And I really believe giving McGuire more playing time will help Jansen find his stroke.

Not a believer in SRF.
I just don't like his choice of pitches.
Maybe it's old school? Throw breaking balls until you're in a fastball count?
Anyway, good tools and room to grow there and he got it done tonight.

lexomatic - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#379518) #
What Deury's streak does is highlight the importance of a hot start for a not yet established player. A good start can mask a cold streak leading to extended plating time. A bad start can hide good results and lead to an undeserved demotion.
I havent seen Reid-Foley  pitch, but I asked a friend at the game to fight what he thought, and he answered Steib. That's pretty exciting,  but also I think a bit exaggerated. He looks like he's got more control since his return,  but who here has thoughts that jas seen him pitch (on TV at least a few times).
Gerry - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#379519) #
I assume Bo will get a day off tomorrow now that his streak is over.
SK in NJ - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#379520) #
Since coming back from AAA (June-onwards), Hernandez is hitting .251/.321/.551 with 14 home runs in 184 plate appearances (8.7 BB%, 31.5 K%). I think at this point he is what he is, a high K slugger. It is just a matter of whether there is a bit more room for his power to grow while increasing his walk rate (currently at 9% for the season, which is respectable). He's improved enough defensively, at least statistically, to be playable in LF. He can easily carve out a DH/part-time OF type of role on this team, especially if they decide to go with a Gurriel-Fisher-Grichuk outfield next season. It really depends on his bat.
Magpie - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#379521) #
Edwin Jackson pitches into the 7th inning, allows a single run, gets the W. For real.

OK, it was the Royals.
Magpie - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#379523) #
In other news, Tanaka has been pushed back to the Sunday game. Chad Green will work as the Opener for the Yankees on Saturday afternoon.
dan gordon - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 02:32 AM EDT (#379526) #
Drury has 1,350 big league AB's. I'm not about to ascribe much of anything to a mini streak of 86 AB's. His defensive numbers on BB-Ref don't look all that great, either. As a 2B, his career Total Zone per season is -1 and his career runs saved per season is +5. As a 3B, his career Total Zone per season is -1 and his career runs saved per season is -10. I find it amazing, and worrying, that he has been given over 300 AB's already this season. Seems like they're trying to justify the Happ trade.

That's great news that Borucki doesn't need another TJ surgery. When you hear elbow inflammation and a visit to James Andrews, you think TJ. I was afraid his career was in jeopardy. The Jays 5 starters this year were supposed to be Borucki (missed almost the whole season), Shoemaker (missed almost the whole season), Buchholz (missed almost the whole season), Sanchez (was terrible most of the season), and Stroman, who pitched very well. Number 6 guy Richard has also missed most of the season. That's pretty close to zero from 5 of your top 6 starters.
Chuck - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#379527) #
That's pretty close to zero from 5 of your top 6 starters.

In fairness, Buchholz, Shoemaker and Richard hardly have track records suggesting you're going to get a lot of starts from them. Or at least a lot of good ones.

uglyone - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#379528) #
Yeah, here's what those 6 SP combined for in....

2018: 56gs, 4.78era
2019: 66gs, 4.68era


Not exactly a shocking outcome this year.
uglyone - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 07:17 AM EDT (#379529) #
Ach wrong numbers:

2018: 106gs, 4.48era
2019: 70gs, 4.64era
uglyone - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#379530) #
Guess I should note that offense is way up this year so that era is actually better this year:

2018: 106gs, 109era-
2019: 70gs, 101era-

And they're probably going to be 20-25 more starts in this year.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#379532) #
You need to remember Bautista and EE and Donaldson.
Hernandez is working hard on his plate discipline. He has plusplus power and plus speed.
Over the last 30 games, Hernandez played 24 times, he's hitting .282 with an OBP of .371 and an OPS over 1.
He's got  OPS slips of .713/.785 for the year that should work well with Fisher or any other lefty 4th outfielder.
Next year, it will be all about avoiding the April/May whacking fit that overtook the team.

scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#379533) #
Buchholz doesn't have much left in his arm.
Richard made 27 starts last year and 32 the year before.
What happened to Shoemaker is similar to what happened to Stroman in 2015.
That particular outcome was not predictable and there's no telling how many starts Shoemaker could have made otherwise.
There are risks with all pitchers over 30, but that's pretty much all you'll find on the free agent market.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#379534) #
The Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10. The only loss came from the Jays.
The Rays are 8-2. The 2 losses came against the Jays.
The Red Sox are 3-7 and the talks about dealing Betts are getting louder.

scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#379537) #
I think the Twinkies will regret holding on to their prospects.
Cleveland has caught up with them and Cruz might be out for the year.

I hope Houston gets hold of the top spot forcing the Yankees to play Cleveland.
Currently both teams are 76-40.

The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10.
The one loss was charged to Stroman yesterday against the Nationals.
At least, he's playing meaningful baseball.

grjas - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#379538) #
Must be tough to be an angels fan. Wasting away the Trout and Ohtani years and paying a fortune for a declining Pujols.
hypobole - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#379539) #
re: Drury

+4 DRS, +11 UZR/150 at 3B this year.
Arizona numbers were fueled only by his home park, yet Cashman gave up 2 good prospects to acquire him in Solak and Widener, neither having to be 40 man protected at the time. Maybe both Cashman and Atkins and their scouts screwed up, or maybe they saw something.

He's got flaws at the plate, but the Brito-like PA's early in the season have diminished. His SwStr% by month - 14.4, 12.1, 12.1. 10.9. 8.7.

Some hitters can be fixed, some can't. Not saying he will be a better than league average hitter going forward, but the possibility is much more likely than it looked earlier in the year.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#379540) #
Just let the kids play.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#379541) #
It's interesting, with Gurriel on the IL, they will go with a 2 player bench so they can carry more relievers.
Next year, the 26 roster will force them into a 4 player bench. Drury, Urena, Fisher and maybe an out of option guy like Alford. If they sign a veteran, they'll have to give him ABs.

Vulg - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#379542) #
The Red Sox are 3-7 and the talks about dealing Betts are getting louder.

Betts has understandably turned down 8/200 from the Red Sox. While I don't think he'll pull a Trout-like contract when he hits FA (he has 1 year of arb left), I think he's smart to bet on something closer to what Machado or Harper got this offseason (300+, 10+).

Assuming the Red Sox don't pull an Atkins and mess up the return on one of their major assets, I wouldn't assume dealing Betts weakens them much. They'd like prioritize bolstering their rotation.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#379543) #
Turned out the Mets walked out the Nationals last night.
I thought it was over when I went to bed.

Hudson had a scoreless inning, but Doolittle didn't do enough and allowed 4 runs in the 9.
Stroman sprinted form the clubhouse to the dugout in his boxers to celebrate.
Good for Stro, maybe he's found a team where he will be happy.
He's got an ERA over 6 in 2 games in the NL, but the Mets have rallied both time.
His next start will be against the Braves. I'll keep an eye for that one too.

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#379546) #
The Yankee's Mike Ford looks like a beer league softball player.

Aaron Sanchez makes his second start for the Astros tonight against the Orioles. He should be well rested after not pitching for a week.
dalimon5 - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#379548) #
Stroman pitched decent both outings for the Mets. He racked up 9k last night. If they had Jason Vargas starting they probably would have been down more than a few runs and no comeback. They look playoff bound to me. I dont know about you but deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman and Wheeler looks pretty good for the playoffs. DOdgers are the only team I see them not able to get by.
dan gordon - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#379549) #
In 2 games as a Met, Stroman has pitched 10 1/3 innings and has given up 16 hits and 5 walks, for a WHIP of 2.03, and has allowed 7 earned runs for an ERA of 6.10. I'm sure that's not what they were expecting.

Certainly a few of the Jays 6 projected starters had injury problems in the past, but to get as little as they did was an unlucky outcome. They just mentioned on the broadcast that Borucki expects to have a "normal offseason" following the removal of the bone spurs. Hopefully he and Shoemaker have healthy seasons next year.

Looks like they may have found something with Wilmer Font. He's got good stuff.
Magpie - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#379550) #
dan gordon - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#379551) #
Font now has a 19:1 K:BB ratio as a Blue Jay.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#379552) #
Is it time to reassess Teoscarís FV with the club? He is quietly having a pretty good year, along the lines of what Mike Green suggested he might be capable of contributing.
pubster - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#379553) #
Great trade by Atkins to pickup Teoscar.
Chuck - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#379554) #
Magpie fought the Law and the Law won.
Magpie - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#379555) #
I admit it freely.
PeterG - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#379556) #
Law has quietly become a very reliable reliever. Maybe Atkins will win that trade as well.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#379557) #
The Mets infield is not known for its defense.
But, this is a team on a hot streak with the Polar Bear running away with the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Also, this is Stroman's home town and he gets to hit, which he likes.

B-ref gives them a 25% change of making the playoffs vs 55% for the Nationals.

Mike Green - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#379558) #
Very satisfying win.

Teoscar had a really fine PA against Britton. His defence is better than what it was but another little step forward would make a big difference.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#379559) #
I haven't heard much about Tepera.
Axford was with Borucki and had the same procedure done, he'll probably try to get another minor league shot.

Font throws very hard, up to 97mph. That plays well in the pen.
He was fist bumping everybody on the bench before the game, so it seems like they could hang on to him for a while.

Waguespack throws a lot harder than I expected. He sits 93mphs and touches 95-96.
He also commands most of his pitches. I see a lot of stuff ending on the corners.

I think Law started to throw better when he dropped the quick pitch, hesitation and alternate release point routine.
He's got a really good curve that he can throw for strikes and in short outings, the hitters cannot figure out what is coming out next.

Shafer has been good. I can't wait to see more of Romano, he's rehabing.

scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#379560) #
The corner outfielders currently cover a lot of ground, so the outfield defense seems fine to me.
It helps that Galvis can cover 90 feet into the outfield. I think Bichette can do the same.

scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#379561) #
Mke Ford has the Babe Ruth look.

Looking at bWAR for the Yankees

LeMahieu 4.9 (UT guy they picked off on discount)
Gardner 3.9 (old franchise guy who could retire any time)
Tauchman 3.2 (He was worse than Brito last year OPS+ -17)
Judge 3.0 (only played 62 games)
Urshella 2.5 (Yeah, I know)
Torres 2.5 (No surprise here)
Ottavino 2.2 (Hey, we beat their best pitcher)
Sanchez 2.0 (Getting beaten up an awful lot behind the plate)
Voit 1.8 (Not sure why, but I"m expecting a regression with this guy)
Britton 1.6
German 1.3

Magpie - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#379562) #
Toronto Runs Scored and Allowed by Month

            RS      RA   
Mar-Apr    4.13    3.79
May        3.50    5.96
June       5.07    6.00
July       5.03    4.65
August     5.60    4.40

Progress!
greenfrog - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#379563) #
Another good start for Aaron Sanchez as the Astros crush the O's, 20-2.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#379564) #
Make that 23-2. Not quite over yet.
hypobole - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#379565) #
The MLB record for the most HR's given up by a team is 248 by the Reds in 2017. The Orioles, after serving up 6 to the Astros are already at 240 with another 46 games to play. They're on pace to yield 335 HR's. Wow.
dan gordon - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#379566) #
Jays are 10-5 in their last 15 games. They need to go 24-18 the rest of the way to avoid a 90 loss season and finish at 73-89. Getting some surprisingly good pitching from a number of players. Law, for instance, in his last 12 games before today, had allowed an opponents' batting average of only .095 and OPS under .500. Waguespack has been much better than expected. Shafer, Adam and others have done some good bullpen work, and hopefully Romano will be back soon. Some of these guys are putting themselves into the competition for jobs with next year's team. Even assuming Buchholz, Richard and Axford are not brought back, it's easy to come up with more than 20 names who will have a shot at a job, plus whatever free agent signings the team comes up with in the offseason.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#379568) #
It's going to be a tough one today. Thornton hasn't gone very deep into games lately and Mayza, Font, Adam and Law were all used yesterday.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#379569) #
Fangraphs article on Jack Flaherty, who was offered (along with another prospect) to the Jays for Donaldson prior to the 2018 season:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jack-flaherty-is-reaching-his-high-expectations/

Craig Edwards' assessment is that since his July 2 start, Flaherty has "been one of the best pitchers in baseball" (1.6 WAR over the last month).
greenfrog - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#379570) #
Itís transactions like Flaherty (albeit unconsummated in his case) that make me opposed to giving $200m+ to Cole. Good pitchers can be found in other ways that are *much* less expensive to the acquiring team, and that donít tie up a substantial portion of a teamís budget in a single risky asset.

Had the Jays accepted the Cardsí offer, they could have had a rotation with a potentially excellent, cheap, and controllable core of Flaherty, Pearson, Manoah, Borucki. That (and the teamís good young position player core) would have allowed flexibility to pick up a couple of complementary pitchers and maintain lots of flexibility to adapt on the fly, as the Astros have done in recent seasons. Thatís how you build a winner on a mid-market budget.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#379571) #
Do you put zero stock in the Cardinals development of Flaherty or the first half numbers of Flaherty? Lets see if he's one of the top pitchers by seasons end after the league adjusts to his adjustment this year.

Seems convenient to look back at a trade that could have happened if you traded a top 5+ WAR player having an injury-shortened down season after 2 seasons of 7+ WAR. I would take your post differently if it wasn't coming off an article written nearly 2 years after the fact.

By the way, Grichuk is close to 1 WAR on the year with almost 2 months left to go. Dwight Smith Jr cooled after his hot start and sits at -0.7 WAR with further regression expected when he plays based on league adjustment and recent performance.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#379572) #
He's a 1st round pick, if we made that deal we would have had him for 6 years, 2 of which would be done now. St. LOuis has been unable to sign him to a contract so they have 4 years left, one more before his arbitration starts. He seems to match better with Stroman and Sanchez than Manoah, Pearson etc.
scottt - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#379574) #
Now they just need to return to April pitching somehow.
scottt - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#379575) #
It's going to be a tough one for the Yankees as well if they get to Tanaka and the Yanks are playing a doubleheader on Monday which includes a bullpen day.

The Jays have the option to put Giles on the IL and call someone. They can put Borucki on the 60 IL to create a spot.

greenfrog - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#379576) #
dalimon5:

- I concede that I wasnít pushing for a JD trade prior to the 2018 season, but lots of respected commentators (like Ken Rosenthal) were. And it only emerged later that Flaherty and a second prospect had been offered to the Jays for JD

- I first mentioned the Flaherty offer a year ago (that is, when it came to light)

- Flaherty was good last year as well (did you conveniently forget to note this?)

- Had the Jays embarked on a rebuild prior to the 2018 season, and accepted the Cardsí offer, they no doubt would have ensured that they controlled him for seven years ó in other words, through 2024. Respectfully, that seems to mesh *perfectly* with what should be the next window of contention for the Jays. Unless, of course, they canít come up with enough pitching to contend.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#379577) #
He had a great year last year. I didn't conveniently leave that out because I wasn't trying to show you that he's a player who had a bad year. What I am telling you is that you keep on digging up what if scenario's based on reporting from previous years and saying "if this this and this happened then look where we could be today..."

How is that any different than me saying "hey we could have traded Tellez for Zobrist in 2015 because Ken Rosenthal reported it and look what might have happened we may have beat KC." Who cares what may have happened? Honestly I do not mean to be rude, please don't take it as a snark, but seriously, what is the point of showing what we could have been if management did something different in the past? And to boot, you're basing it on rumour mongering websites and reporters.
Gerry - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#379578) #
Neil Ramirez and Billy McKinney are up. No moves out yet. Could Giles go on the IL?
hypobole - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#379580) #
" I concede that I wasnít pushing for a JD trade prior to the 2018 season, but lots of respected commentators (like Ken Rosenthal) were."

Not the way I remember it. Rosenthal reported the Cards contacted the Jays about JD after they couldn't get Stanton. When did he suggest the Jays should trade Donaldson?

Magpie - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#379582) #
McKinney's just there - apparently Giles felt better today. Jason Adam optioned to Buffalo, Borucki to the 60 day IL.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#379583) #
One reason for the Stroman trade may be that the FO recognizes that they should have accepted the Flaherty offer when it was available, and that they didn't want to repeat the same mistake with the SWR offer. Bird (Cardinal) in the hand beats two in the bush, etc.
Magpie - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#379584) #
they just need to return to April pitching somehow.

They'd have to find a different way to it. Three starting pitchers were outstanding in April, and two of them have been traded and the other tore his ACL.

Still, despite the raging dumpster fire of May and June, the improvement since in preventing runs actually has the team close to league average in runs allowed.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#379587) #
One last point about yesterday's game. The game-winning triple resulted from a fine piece of hitting by VGJ, but also some impressive baserunning from Biggio. The ball was down the line and Judge didn't make a clean play, but I still thought that there would be a play at the plate. The cut-off man Ford thought so too and turned to throw to the plate and saw that there was no play, his hesitation allowed VGJ to slide in safely at third. As I said, very satisfying.

And on to the Flaherty/Cole discussion. The past is done. I wish that the club had Flaherty instead of Merryweather for Donaldson, but the club now doesn't have any assets like Donaldson to trade. And they have a fabulous core of pre-arb position players and a bunch of pitching prospects most of whom are a ways away. They have the payroll room to take on a salary like Cole's and others. Ultimately, the combination of prime pitching talent with development of the existing prospects would lead, I believe, to sustainable winning and revenue growth to support it.
bpoz - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#379588) #
TB won 90 games in 2018 and are on pace for 93 wins this year. In the 3 previous years they won 80 games twice and 68 once. That is an average of 82 wins in 5 years.

The odds are higher IMO that TB could have beat NYY in the 2018 WC game if B Snell had been pitching.

People suggested that the Jays ownership would be content with 84-89 wins per year. I feel this mindset is possibly right. So the 68 win your would have been disappointing to ownership.

68 wins followed by 91 would would make some fans realize the team is winning. Those fans that don't know the team is winning can be informed by a strong media. I also feel strongly that Toronto fans always will support a winner. If the 68 wins (bad) was following a 91 win (good) season, some fans will realize that the team is losing. If enough fans have not figured it out then they will still attend based on the previous years 91 wins.

With elite/good enough pitching and hitting both happened in 2015 and 2016 then we survive the WC game. NYY got through the last 2 WCs because the Twins and A's had weak pitching.

Magpie - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#379590) #
The underhand lob was not the best idea.
Magpie - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#379592) #
Of course Buck thinks it was a terrific sequence of pitches! He recommended each pitch before Thornton threw it, McGuire called for that very pitch, Thornton executed, and they got out of the jam.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#379594) #
Theoretically that was a tough loss. And in the heat of a pennant race, it would be. On this afternoon though, and over the series as a whole, they looked very much like a .500 club or better. Bring on the next.
pubster - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#379595) #
Jays held the Yankees to 19 runs in 4 games. Not bad! Only 7 total runs in the last 3 games.
scottt - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#379596) #
Tanaka can be incredibly tough when the ump  extends the zone downward like today.
Lots of balls below the knee where called strike, maybe because of late break.

You gotta feel like the Yanks are happy to get the hell of Toronto, which is all you want at this point.

hypobole - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#379599) #
A day after crushing the O's 23-2, the Astro's were -450 at Caesars Sportsbook for today's game. That made them the 2nd biggest favourite in the past 15 years. Osuna gave up 3 runs in the ninth, including a walk-off 2 run HR, as the O's won 8-7.
John Northey - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#379604) #
One thing to remember about pitching prospects is how they can move super-fast once ready. Osuna went straight from A+ to the majors and was successful right away at age 20.

Elvis Luciano wasn't exactly amazing this year, but for a 19 year old who had never pitched above rookie ball, he did darn good.

A generation ago Dave Stieb was an outfielder in A+ at 20, in the majors pitching at 21, all star at 22.

Never doubt that a pitcher can suddenly be ready. You want to play it safe, but Stieb and Osuna both were fine without real injury issues until years after they came up with Osuna's issues being a bit different.

I expect to see Thornton, SRF, Zeuch, Borducki, and Diaz very early in 2020 with Pearson, Kay coming up a bit later. And some surprises sure to appear too.
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#379609) #
Fun fact from ESPN:

"Toronto phenom Bo Bichette, who debuted July 29, has more doubles this season than Justin Smoak, the Blue Jays' everyday first baseman. And also more than Khris Davis, and for that matter Chris Davis. "
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#379611) #
Interesting fact from this article on bad-ball blasts.  Conventionally, for sabermetric purposes, there are three zones- the strike zone, the shadow and the chase.  The major league leaders on home runs on balls in the chase zone are Javier Baez and Rowdy Tellez with 2 each.  Tellez' homers on pitches way out of the zone may have been a bad thing...
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#379613) #
Why would you expect Yennsy Diaz early in 2020, John?  I would say that he got a C on the double A test this year, and that usually means a significant period in triple A. 

At this point, the candidates for starter/longer roles in 2020 include Shoemaker, Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone, SRF, Zeuch, Kay, Pearson.  You'd hope that the club added one or two pitchers in the off-season so that they ensured development time for Pearson, Diaz, Murphy, Murray and the rest.
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#379615) #
At this point, the candidates for starter/longer roles in 2020 include Shoemaker, Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone, SRF, Zeuch, Kay, Pearson.

Borucki too, I would expect.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#379617) #
And Borucki.  Thanks, Magpie.

The Blue Jay sprint scores per Statcast are indicative of a reasonably athletic young club (27 is an average sprint score):

Hernandez- 29
Fisher- 28.6
Bichette- 28.4
Biggio- 28.3
Grichuk- 28.1
Jansen- 27.3
Drury- 26.7
McGuire- 26.2
VGJ- 26.1
Galvis- 25.9
Smoak- 23.2

I'm pretty sure that VGJ improved his sprint score with his effort to run out the double play ball yesterday and on the triple on Saturday.  Is it just me or has he lost a little weight in the last two months?
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#379618) #
Stieb and Osuna both were fine without real injury issues until years after they came up

Didn't Osuna have TJ surgery before he came up?

In addition to the pitchers Mike named, and Borucki, I expect the next two months will also be something of an audition for Stewart and Godley, just to see if there's anything that might be useful there. I'd be surprised if either is a useful starter in the AL. My first impression of Stewart is that he might be something of a RH Pannone - not a big power arm, he pitches like a starter, he's always been a starter. But I always figure if you can't make it in Dodger Stadium you can't make it anywhere. Maybe he's a bullpen guy. And Godley was drafted by the Cubs and they sure thought he was a bullpen guy. He never started a game as a pro until he went to Arizona.
John Northey - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#379619) #
I expect Diaz due to the Jays giving him that one game in the majors this season. Obviously the front office thinks a lot of him or he wouldn't have been called up. In truth, you have a good point that he hasn't done much to justify that call up (3.6 BB/9 vs 7.2 K/9 in AA) but there are open slots galore here and now that he is into his option years the Jays will be giving him lots of chances to impress. This year is his 5th in the minors and he is just 22. I'm guessing he is showing a lot with his 'hidden stats' that we don't know (spin rate, velocity, who knows?).

Of note: pitchers grow quickly. Juan Guzman the year before he made it was in AA and had 4.6 BB/9 vs 7.9 K/9 but had a sub 3 ERA in the majors the following year and was viewed as the best guy in the playoffs to have on the mound - the complaining about him not getting 2 starts in the post-season was high in the pre-internet era (1991).
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#379620) #
sprint scores

Smoak is one of the slowest guys in the whole damn league. Not Molina-slow, but getting there. Or not getting there.

But the weird one is Galvis. Both catchers are faster than the shortstop? (And Maile too, as I recollect.)

Must be the dreads. Wind drag or something.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#379621) #
I think "C" might be a wee bit low a grade for Diaz' solid average year in AA at an age appropriate 22. And I have to say I was encouraged at the raw easy velo he showed in his appearance in the bigs (especially since it opens up a potential better fallback plan in the bullpen for him). Then again, maybe a "B" grade would be a little generous, too. So let's say B-/C+. And enough for a deserved promotion to AAA next year.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#379622) #
In 2015, a dread-free Galvis was 25 and he was almost exactly league average in sprint speed at 27.1 (slower than Jansen is now).  I'd venture a guess that Russell Martin at age 25 was faster than that and probably could have played a pretty good shortstop. 

There are so many ways to be a good defensive shortstop, and not all of them involve sprint speed.  A quick first step and good athleticism seem to be essential, but some combination of arm strength and accuracy and sprint speed are also necessary.  Cal Ripken, Robin Yount, Tony Fernandez and Ozzie Smith cover a spectrum from arm to speed (and in Ozzie's case, spectacular athleticism). 
Magpie - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#379624) #
Indeed. Troy Tulowitzki was also a great shortstop and I guess he'd go very near the Ripken end on that continuum.
dan gordon - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#379692) #
I think you can add Merryweather to that list of possible starters for 2020 as well. The Jays have said a lot of positive things about him since he was acquired - they obviously think highly of him. I would expect Godley would get a shot as well. He was terrific as a starter as recently as 2017. That's a very large list of possible starters already, and if they add 1 or 2 in the offseason, it's going to be quite a battle. Of course, if they get injuries like they did this year, they'll need most of them.

I would say the Y. Diaz call up was a case of them needing somebody for a day, and he was on the roster. His K:BB ratio was not very good this year, and I think he needs a little more time in AA. No rush, he's only 22.

Those sprint scores are interesting. Thanks.
scottt - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#379702) #
I'd like to have more info on Merryweather's health.
He pitched 2 innings in the GCL at the end of June and 4 innings with Dunedin and he was back on the IL.
That was about 6 weeks ago.


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