The Blue Jays announced that they have signed 1B-DH Edwin Encarnacion to a three year, $27M deal, with an option for a fourth year at $10M.
Not sellers, evidently.
Not sellers, evidently.
What I admire about this contract is AA's continued willingness to take a gamble and express some faith in a player. Some people, including a few Bauxites, have argued this year that EE is merely enjoying one of his periodic hot streaks and will soon revert to career form. He hasn't, of course, but there's no guarantee that he won't.
In essence, AA is gambling that Encarnacion has shifted up to a new level, to the all-star level that Bautista and others have argued that EE has achieved this year. Or, if not all-star, at least up to a calibre that won't fall below the .800 OPS level that would minimally justify this contract.
Anthopoulos took a similar (though more costly) gamble with the Bautista contract last year. He has already been proven right on that one. It will be interesting to see if he's right on this one. It's only been a half-season of all-star performance from Encarnacion, and many people would have preferred AA to wait until the off-season to be more certain about him. Anthopoulos decided to take a gamble now. It's gutsy, again.
In essence, AA is gambling that Encarnacion has shifted up to a new level, to the all-star level that Bautista and others have argued that EE has achieved this year. Or, if not all-star, at least up to a calibre that won't fall below the .800 OPS level that would minimally justify this contract.
Anthopoulos took a similar (though more costly) gamble with the Bautista contract last year. He has already been proven right on that one. It will be interesting to see if he's right on this one. It's only been a half-season of all-star performance from Encarnacion, and many people would have preferred AA to wait until the off-season to be more certain about him. Anthopoulos decided to take a gamble now. It's gutsy, again.
The team option in 2016 is nice too. Anthopoulos has done very, very well with this. I wonder if the friendly people at Rogers will respond better to this financial success than they did to the Wells' triumph. I wish that I could say that hope springs eternal.
The other question is whether the EE contract is proof that the Jays will be buyers this year. Are they "going for it now"? I'm not completely convinced (and won't be until I see AA acquire one or two above-replacement-level pitchers) but it's interesting to contemplate.
They could still be sellers to some extent. Encarnacion is in a bit of a different boat because the Jays have no one to play 1b/dh without him, unless you have faith in Lind and Cooper. It's important to have Edwin to play next year.
But they could still conceivably move players like Escobar, Johnson, Davis, or Oliver, who could plausibly be replaced from within or free agency.
But they could still conceivably move players like Escobar, Johnson, Davis, or Oliver, who could plausibly be replaced from within or free agency.
I don't think this indicates anything about this season (in terms of 'buying' and 'selling'). I think it indicates that the Jays want EE beyond this season.
AA is gambling that Encarnacion has shifted up to a new level, to the all-star level that Bautista and others have argued that EE has achieved this year
$9MM is about the going rate for an average position player. An All-Star, or near All-Star level, would be gravy.
I think this looks like a good contract that could work out to be an excellent contract.
I think it is more a sign that AA feels at $9 mil per year Encarnacion is a better deal than anything else he could get for DH/1B this offseason. Nice deal as it covers ages 30/31/32 with an option for age 33 thus covering off the rest of his prime with the first post-age 32 season covered as well.
EE has had just 2 seasons sub-100 for OPS+, in both cases sub-400 PA (2005, 2009). His 109 lifetime OPS+ is a reasonable expectation, but if he has one more 140+ season like this one (currently at 150) then I figure his contract is paid off with the rest being bonus points. Wonder how many teams wish they bit in the 2010/2011 winter when anyone could've had him for sub-$3 mil?
EE has had just 2 seasons sub-100 for OPS+, in both cases sub-400 PA (2005, 2009). His 109 lifetime OPS+ is a reasonable expectation, but if he has one more 140+ season like this one (currently at 150) then I figure his contract is paid off with the rest being bonus points. Wonder how many teams wish they bit in the 2010/2011 winter when anyone could've had him for sub-$3 mil?
I said about 3 weeks ago that Encarnacion had to be extended before the deadline or traded. I guess AA chose the extension route. So much for China Fan's theory that AA doesn't like doing mid-season extensions for players that are impending free agents.
"Not sellers, evidently."
Wouldn't a deal like this make Encarnacion more valuable in trade now that FA compensation was removed for players traded midseason?
Wouldn't a deal like this make Encarnacion more valuable in trade now that FA compensation was removed for players traded midseason?
I don't see AA being able/willing to get the "help" Bautista has asked for, but the timing of this extension may also be an attempt to assuage Jose somewhat.
Great deal, especially with the option year. This does add evidence to what the front office has been saying all along - they are looking to improve the big league club now, and there is money for the right expenditure. Scouting, the IFA market, absorbing contracts like Teahan's to facilitate trades, value free agents like Oliver (okay, and Cordero - you win some, you lose some) and re-signing our own reclamation projects to team-friendly deals - Bautista, Escobar, EE.
The team really does look like it's laying a foundation to begin competing as soon as next year, and for this reason I can't imagine we deal Oliver, Johnson (who I bet gets a multi-year deal similar to Edwin's) or Davis, all of whom could be contributors to a contender in 2013, or for a late push this year. I think the willingness to consider Stroman and Dyson as arms for the pen this year is further evidence that the front office sees the team on the brink of contention and is willing to swap potential future value (starting pitching) for immediate big-league help in the pen.
The team really does look like it's laying a foundation to begin competing as soon as next year, and for this reason I can't imagine we deal Oliver, Johnson (who I bet gets a multi-year deal similar to Edwin's) or Davis, all of whom could be contributors to a contender in 2013, or for a late push this year. I think the willingness to consider Stroman and Dyson as arms for the pen this year is further evidence that the front office sees the team on the brink of contention and is willing to swap potential future value (starting pitching) for immediate big-league help in the pen.
This deal makes me very happy.
Career: .264/.341/.465/.806, .350woba, 111wRC+
As Jay: .267/.335/.486/.821, .355woba, 122wRC+
Even before this breakout season he was still a comfortably above average offensive player. (If memory serves his numbers were approx .790ops, .340woba, 110wRC+ prior to this season).
And I for one think his breakout this year is largely legit, even if that means he might drop down to "just" being an .850+ ops guy.
Career: .264/.341/.465/.806, .350woba, 111wRC+
As Jay: .267/.335/.486/.821, .355woba, 122wRC+
Even before this breakout season he was still a comfortably above average offensive player. (If memory serves his numbers were approx .790ops, .340woba, 110wRC+ prior to this season).
And I for one think his breakout this year is largely legit, even if that means he might drop down to "just" being an .850+ ops guy.
"....So much for China Fan's theory that AA doesn't like doing mid-season extensions for players that are impending free agents..."
Another complete and total misreading by 92-93. If he had read my brief post, or if he could refrain from misquoting, he would acknowledge that I had only raised it as a tentative question. And I had cited evidence on both sides of the question -- including several previous cases of mid-season extensions by Anthopoulos. Obviously I wasn't theorizing that AA didn't like mid-season extensions, because he has done it several times in the past. I was posing the question of whether it is his preference or not. But nuance is often lost in these threads....
Another complete and total misreading by 92-93. If he had read my brief post, or if he could refrain from misquoting, he would acknowledge that I had only raised it as a tentative question. And I had cited evidence on both sides of the question -- including several previous cases of mid-season extensions by Anthopoulos. Obviously I wasn't theorizing that AA didn't like mid-season extensions, because he has done it several times in the past. I was posing the question of whether it is his preference or not. But nuance is often lost in these threads....
"....Even before this breakout season he was still a comfortably above average offensive player..."
His career OPS before this year was .789. Would that be "comfortably above average" for a 1B or DH, which he is now?
His career OPS before this year was .789. Would that be "comfortably above average" for a 1B or DH, which he is now?
Edwin's reaction on Twitter:
Edwin Encarnacion @Encadwin
God is Good :) I'm Very Happy to be part of this great @BlueJays Org. for another 4yrs Thanks all for your support Go Blue Jays!!!!!
Edwin Encarnacion @Encadwin
God is Good :) I'm Very Happy to be part of this great @BlueJays Org. for another 4yrs Thanks all for your support Go Blue Jays!!!!!
AL DH Totals:
2012: .770ops
2011: .769ops
2010: .757ops
so...yes, it would be comfortable above average.
2012: .770ops
2011: .769ops
2010: .757ops
so...yes, it would be comfortable above average.
The team has no other clear 1B/DH options in the farm system other than Adam Lind, David Cooper and Mike McDade, and Lind has a pretty lengthy track record of awfulness, Cooper's ceiling is Overbay without the D, and McDade doesn't really have a track record at all (although there are reasons to be optimistic). The Jays want to contend, and in that regard certainty is better than uncertainty, and John is right, they aren't going to get a better player at a lesser price.
This is what I wrote in the mid-season hitting report: "I think the most likely way things goes down is with Toronto offering arbitration and Encarnacion declining. Hear me out. EE's on a $3.5 million club option, and right now he ranks second amongst 1B in WAR. I can't see him getting less than 3/$30 million on the open market going into his age 30 season, with the only thing potentially holding him back being that a lot of big market AL teams (where he also makes sense as a DH) like Anaheim, New York, Boston and Detroit all have logjams at 1B/DH. I doubt the Jays would really want to pay that, but I could see the club, bereft of any other real options (other than trying to move Bautista) offering him arbitration, which I think is around $12 million, especially given the possibility he declines - as I mentioned I think Encarnacion can get close to that, but over multiple years."
I think the club got great value.
I'd be interested to hear Jonny German's comments. I believe he was the one who argued that EE's season in 2012 was nothing unusual. Although that was about a month ago, I think, so he may have changed his mind by now.
Interesting to note AA's big contracts...
Bautista: 5/$65 ($13 per)
EE: 3/$27 plus option ($9 per)
Morrow: 3/$21 plus option at $10 ($7 per plus option)
Romero: 5/$30.1 ($6 per)
Escobar: 2/$10 (plus 2 options at same $5 per)
Lind: 4/$18 ($4.5 per)
Janssen: 2/$5.9
Davis: 2/$5.75
So just one over $10 per, tons in the well under range. No contracts that are killers like Wells (7/$126) or even Rios (7/$70 plus option) outside of Bautista and Bautista's is actually less raw dollars than Rios' deal.
Interesting to see. AA clearly likes deals where if it blows up it won't cripple his budget but all have the potential to bring in near double value vs free agency.
FanGraphs has Bautista worth $51.4 mil since signing his deal - clear win even if you put a serious discount on them.
EE is at $12.7 this year so far, $6+ each of the last 2 years - so worst case is paying $27 mil for $18 mil of value should he be as he was pre-this season but one more year like this and his contract is paid off.
Morrow it says was at $7.4 so far this year and averaged $15 the past 2.
Romero: Just $0.8 so far (ugh) but $12+ each of the last 3 years
Doesn't take much to make these deals worth it. Just so you know there are bad figures...
Rios: $13.2 this year so far (really good year), but $3 mil in the hole last year, $14.8 the year before to the good (talk about extremes), $1.3 his last year here/first in Chicago
Wells: $1.4 last year, $100k sub-0 this year, just one year over $10 mil since his big 2006
Bautista: 5/$65 ($13 per)
EE: 3/$27 plus option ($9 per)
Morrow: 3/$21 plus option at $10 ($7 per plus option)
Romero: 5/$30.1 ($6 per)
Escobar: 2/$10 (plus 2 options at same $5 per)
Lind: 4/$18 ($4.5 per)
Janssen: 2/$5.9
Davis: 2/$5.75
So just one over $10 per, tons in the well under range. No contracts that are killers like Wells (7/$126) or even Rios (7/$70 plus option) outside of Bautista and Bautista's is actually less raw dollars than Rios' deal.
Interesting to see. AA clearly likes deals where if it blows up it won't cripple his budget but all have the potential to bring in near double value vs free agency.
FanGraphs has Bautista worth $51.4 mil since signing his deal - clear win even if you put a serious discount on them.
EE is at $12.7 this year so far, $6+ each of the last 2 years - so worst case is paying $27 mil for $18 mil of value should he be as he was pre-this season but one more year like this and his contract is paid off.
Morrow it says was at $7.4 so far this year and averaged $15 the past 2.
Romero: Just $0.8 so far (ugh) but $12+ each of the last 3 years
Doesn't take much to make these deals worth it. Just so you know there are bad figures...
Rios: $13.2 this year so far (really good year), but $3 mil in the hole last year, $14.8 the year before to the good (talk about extremes), $1.3 his last year here/first in Chicago
Wells: $1.4 last year, $100k sub-0 this year, just one year over $10 mil since his big 2006
Very happy about this extension, one less hole to fill going forward regardless of whether it is 1B or DH. I love the protection he gives Bautista (Joey's resurgeance this year lines up perfectly with the switch from Lind to EE hitting behind him. Edwin's versatility (albeit mediocre versatility) is just gravy. Let's get a pitcher signed beyond this season (even if it is just 1) and I will consider this season a success for AA.
Huzzah. He's come so far and obviously deserves this. Hopefully he will earn it too.
I don't quite think this proves AA isn't in sell mode, but trading Encarnacion would have been a dead giveaway that he was, and now that ain't happening.
I don't quite think this proves AA isn't in sell mode, but trading Encarnacion would have been a dead giveaway that he was, and now that ain't happening.
Just over a year ago, I wouldn't have batted an eye if Encarnacion was claimed on waivers. Now, I'm quite pleased by this deal. What a difference a year.....and a new defensive position....makes.
The other comments have mostly hit on my reaction, but it's a very reasonable figure and a contract that isn't going to seriously harm the club if it doesn't pay the expected dividends. As Anders said, there's no immediate help on the horizon at 1B/DH and someone else can force his way onto the team to play DH or another bat to play those positions can be acquired, if necessary. This is a good move, even if Encarnacion doesn't repeat 2012 in the coming seasons.
The other comments have mostly hit on my reaction, but it's a very reasonable figure and a contract that isn't going to seriously harm the club if it doesn't pay the expected dividends. As Anders said, there's no immediate help on the horizon at 1B/DH and someone else can force his way onto the team to play DH or another bat to play those positions can be acquired, if necessary. This is a good move, even if Encarnacion doesn't repeat 2012 in the coming seasons.
I think it's a very good deal. EE would have gotten more as a free agent barring a steep dropoff in the next 2.5 months. I think the fielding troubles he's had in the past have affected his hitting. Last year, he came into camp as the DH and just before the start of the season, they threw him out there as the 3rd baseman, and he started the season poorly. Once they stopped using him at 3rd he hit much better. I doubt the .950 OPS is likely to be maintained, but I think he will put up better numbers than his career stats prior to 2012 would indicate. Wouldn't be surprised if he averages .830 or better OPS for the next 3 years.
Josh Willingham hit .257/.360/.479 from 2009-2011 and only got 3/21 as a FA. This pre-FA extension would be an overpayment if all EE provides is an .830 OPS.
Good idea to check recent free agents 9293...
Willingham: consistent performer in the 120 range for OPS+ for 6 years before the contract. Contract covers ages 33-35 at $7 mil per year
Encarnacion: 4 of 7 years in 108-110 range, other 3 ML seasons were 91-93-101 (rookie year, traded year, age 24 season) so reasonably steady at 10 points lower than one would expect from Willingham.
This year though EE is at 150 while Willingham is at 149 - go figure. This winter what kind of contract would each get on the open market? EE is 4 years younger but Willingham has a better track record. EE can play (technically) 3B/1B (plus 8 innings in LF) while Williangham is a LF/RF with 15 games behind the plate (2006 and earlier) and 4 innings at 1B.
Given all of that which would you sign? I'd expect the 4 years would outweigh the 10 points of OPS+ one could expect based on pre-2012 stats. Plus, EE is now known to potentially be a 150 OPS+ hitter while (at the time of signing) no one expected it from Willingham.
In the end I'd say given Willingham getting $7 mil per year for slightly better performance pre-2012 but EE having 4 years and showing potential for a lot more offense that the $9 mil per is a good deal especially with the option year at the end.
Willingham: consistent performer in the 120 range for OPS+ for 6 years before the contract. Contract covers ages 33-35 at $7 mil per year
Encarnacion: 4 of 7 years in 108-110 range, other 3 ML seasons were 91-93-101 (rookie year, traded year, age 24 season) so reasonably steady at 10 points lower than one would expect from Willingham.
This year though EE is at 150 while Willingham is at 149 - go figure. This winter what kind of contract would each get on the open market? EE is 4 years younger but Willingham has a better track record. EE can play (technically) 3B/1B (plus 8 innings in LF) while Williangham is a LF/RF with 15 games behind the plate (2006 and earlier) and 4 innings at 1B.
Given all of that which would you sign? I'd expect the 4 years would outweigh the 10 points of OPS+ one could expect based on pre-2012 stats. Plus, EE is now known to potentially be a 150 OPS+ hitter while (at the time of signing) no one expected it from Willingham.
In the end I'd say given Willingham getting $7 mil per year for slightly better performance pre-2012 but EE having 4 years and showing potential for a lot more offense that the $9 mil per is a good deal especially with the option year at the end.
MLB Trade Rumours brings up Michael Cuddyer - 3 years, $31.5 mil last winter. He, like Willingham, was coming off his age 32 season (I should've said '3 year spread' not 4 for comparison of contracts).
Cuddyer 3 times cracked 120 for OPS+, but also has an 89 recently (2008). He has more defensive value due to being in RF/1B with recent time in CF, 2B, 3B. His lifetime 110 OPS+ though suggests he shouldn't hit more than EE would be expected to pre-2012. Yet he got over just over $10 mil a year. TotalZone rates his defense as a negative, but I don't know what his general rep is.
Still, now with 2 data points and EE being inbetween them one has to think this deal makes sense if EE ends up in the 110-120 range for OPS+ and is a bargain if his new level is for real (ala Bautista).
Cuddyer 3 times cracked 120 for OPS+, but also has an 89 recently (2008). He has more defensive value due to being in RF/1B with recent time in CF, 2B, 3B. His lifetime 110 OPS+ though suggests he shouldn't hit more than EE would be expected to pre-2012. Yet he got over just over $10 mil a year. TotalZone rates his defense as a negative, but I don't know what his general rep is.
Still, now with 2 data points and EE being inbetween them one has to think this deal makes sense if EE ends up in the 110-120 range for OPS+ and is a bargain if his new level is for real (ala Bautista).
John I place some value on EE's age. Willingham (and Cuddyer who we may also want to include in this discussion) are getting up there in age and I wouldn't expect them to maintain their performance over the entire contract. If they were all on 1 year deals I think you are correct.
Who would have guessed at the time of the Rolen trade that EE would be the jewel of the deal for the Jays - I remember the fanbase salivating at the prospect porn of Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke and lamenting having to take EE and his contract - Kudos to the FO for having faith in EE when most fans did not want him back after his contract expired (myself included) and Kudos to EE for taking his demotion like a man and coming back better - here's hoping the same holds true for Adam Lind.
Yes, there's a significant difference in likely career paths for a 30 year old vs a 33 year old. Plus, I think there is a realistic possibility that EE does better than .830 OPS - I mentioned .830 or better. Willingham's contract looks like a very good deal for the Twins, he's been a good hitter for quite a while, and his numbers have probably been hurt somewhat by playing in pitchers' parks - his career OPS is higher on the road than at home. Let's put it this way - if you said you could have Willingham or Encarnacion for the next couple of years as your DH, I'd take Edwin.
Anyone else out there think this is another step towards signing David Ortiz in the off-season? An all-dominican middle of the order would be pretty daunting. Provided Boston doesn't give him a qualifying offer, I wouldn't be surprised to see J-Bats/Papi/EE next season.
Nice deal, very fair. Another player under team control for awhile. Like the club option 4th year as well.
When people were excited about the new & improved EE in early May I was still very skeptical. Now that he's done it for 3 months I'm happy to say I was wrong, he wasn't just on one of the big hot streaks that have characterized his entire career. It's quite possible that something has clicked with him, much later than is typical, and that we won't see more of the massive slumps that have also characterized his entire career.
I wouldn't have the confidence at this point to say Yes, he is genuinely new & improved. I don't share the enthusiasm of the crowd here, I think there's still a decent chance that this contract could go down as less than a great idea for AA. But there's risk in everything, and I'm confident that AA generally picks his bets wisely.
Congrats to Edwin, and nice to see the Jays spending some cash.
I wouldn't have the confidence at this point to say Yes, he is genuinely new & improved. I don't share the enthusiasm of the crowd here, I think there's still a decent chance that this contract could go down as less than a great idea for AA. But there's risk in everything, and I'm confident that AA generally picks his bets wisely.
Congrats to Edwin, and nice to see the Jays spending some cash.
No, sadly I think Papi's lack of glove means he will NOT be coming to Toronto. Too bad.
Jason Kubel (age 30 now) is another good comp, with career OPS+ of 114. He has a career slash of .338/.466 damn close to EE's .341/.465.
Kubel got 2 years x $7.5M with an option for the same amount, last year as a FA.
The EE deal is ok, but not a wow. Pretty much exactly as one would expect. Here's hoping it's a great deal for the Jays.
Jason Kubel (age 30 now) is another good comp, with career OPS+ of 114. He has a career slash of .338/.466 damn close to EE's .341/.465.
Kubel got 2 years x $7.5M with an option for the same amount, last year as a FA.
The EE deal is ok, but not a wow. Pretty much exactly as one would expect. Here's hoping it's a great deal for the Jays.
i think there is an AA quote somewhere on Twitter from today, where AA says exactly that. EE's deal being an exception I guess.
Willingham was a 33 year old with chronic injuries, who had never had a season approaching EE's current performance.
And I still thought his deal was a good deal for Minny when he signed it.
And I still thought his deal was a good deal for Minny when he signed it.
Sweat -- I think you're referring to this quote, which was tweeted by Mike Cormack after the press conference today:
"AA said he prefers not to do mid-season extensions and added he had no intentions of dealing EE regardless."
I suspect he's telling the truth -- ideally he doesn't like to do mid-season extensions, because they can be a serious distraction to everyone. But in some cases, like this one, it makes sense to do it.
Jonny -- thanks for the thoughts on Encarnacion's season. I still share a bit of your early skepticism. After all, what are the odds that two players in the same lineup (Bautista and EE) both make a magical leap to a whole new level at the age of 29? It's certainly unusual, and the odds were against them. But maybe the Jays got lucky. (Or they scouted well in their due diligence before those two trades.)
"AA said he prefers not to do mid-season extensions and added he had no intentions of dealing EE regardless."
I suspect he's telling the truth -- ideally he doesn't like to do mid-season extensions, because they can be a serious distraction to everyone. But in some cases, like this one, it makes sense to do it.
Jonny -- thanks for the thoughts on Encarnacion's season. I still share a bit of your early skepticism. After all, what are the odds that two players in the same lineup (Bautista and EE) both make a magical leap to a whole new level at the age of 29? It's certainly unusual, and the odds were against them. But maybe the Jays got lucky. (Or they scouted well in their due diligence before those two trades.)
Nice clip of AA and EE at the press conference discussing the signing. It's pretty clear that EE and his family really like it in Toronto.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120712&content_id=34857644&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120712&content_id=34857644&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor
Is it me or has this been an abnormally quiet all-star hiatus? Shouldn't there be all sorts of wheeling and dealing in the books by now?
I feel as though the big deals often don't go down until the last week or two of July. I also wonder if the new CBA is making it harder to complete deals for rental players like Greinke and Hamels. Also, with the extra wild card, more teams may be holding out to gauge the likelihood of playoff contention as July rolls on. And the relatively few sellers with pitching may be holding out for higher bids from the many buyers in need of their wares.
The Jays appear to be doing in the Anthopoulos/Beeston era whatnthey did in the Gillick/Beeston era in the 1980s:
- Don't spend much on free agents.
- Pour money into the farm system, and attempt to out-scout opponents.
- Spend to keep good players.
The 1980s Jays were willing to trade for the occasional rent-a-player or two if they were actually in contention late in the season (hello there, Mookie!), so maybe the 2010s Jays will do the same thing.
I'm totally okay with the EE signing. He can hit, the Jays don't have a replacement in the farm system, and he likes it here.
- Don't spend much on free agents.
- Pour money into the farm system, and attempt to out-scout opponents.
- Spend to keep good players.
The 1980s Jays were willing to trade for the occasional rent-a-player or two if they were actually in contention late in the season (hello there, Mookie!), so maybe the 2010s Jays will do the same thing.
I'm totally okay with the EE signing. He can hit, the Jays don't have a replacement in the farm system, and he likes it here.
what are the odds that two players in the same lineup... both make a magical leap to a whole new level
I don't think this is quite as magical a leap. It's certainly a big step forward, but some of the key components aren't that far from things he'd done in his past. He's batting .295? A career high, but he did hit .289 for the Reds in 2007. He's got 23 HR in 308 ABs? He did hit 21 in 332 ABs for the Jays a couple of years ago.
Encarnacion himself has talked about rebuilding his swing this off-season so he could drive the pitch away from him. Along with that, I'd suggest that not having to worry about playing third base has simplified his life enormously. Not being asked, on a daily basis, to go out and do something he simply wasn't capable of doing - well, it agrees with him.
I don't think this is quite as magical a leap. It's certainly a big step forward, but some of the key components aren't that far from things he'd done in his past. He's batting .295? A career high, but he did hit .289 for the Reds in 2007. He's got 23 HR in 308 ABs? He did hit 21 in 332 ABs for the Jays a couple of years ago.
Encarnacion himself has talked about rebuilding his swing this off-season so he could drive the pitch away from him. Along with that, I'd suggest that not having to worry about playing third base has simplified his life enormously. Not being asked, on a daily basis, to go out and do something he simply wasn't capable of doing - well, it agrees with him.
Does the new CBA make it hard to acquiring expiring contracts? Yes, the players traded will need to be better quality than ever before. Of course, if it's a salary dump, that's different. You might get by with something not quite as good, but still very good.
Your best value isn't the two plus year contracts the players you acquire have. It's the only 1.3 or less years remaining that have most value. If it's a bad acquisition, only one year remains and a buyout is possible. If it's a good acquisition, the least you will get is a draft pick, the best, a long term contract (3 or more years). If it's a bad 2+ year acquisition - enough said.
Your best value isn't the two plus year contracts the players you acquire have. It's the only 1.3 or less years remaining that have most value. If it's a bad acquisition, only one year remains and a buyout is possible. If it's a good acquisition, the least you will get is a draft pick, the best, a long term contract (3 or more years). If it's a bad 2+ year acquisition - enough said.
AA was on the fan with MacGowan yesterday. I believe he said trades will be made July, Aug & maybe Sept. After July 31 a traded player has to pass through waivers.
There are worse things to emulate than the Jays of the 80's - a lot of fun as we saw players come up and become stars, frustrating when Sil Campusano was the star of stars and flopped (probably the #1 thing that led to Jimy Williams demise as a manager here - everything that could be done wrong was in that case).
EE's contract is short enough to not be a disaster if he flops, but long enough to keep him around if he stays good. 3 year deals rarely kill a team, 7 year deals can (cough-Wells-cough).
EE's contract is short enough to not be a disaster if he flops, but long enough to keep him around if he stays good. 3 year deals rarely kill a team, 7 year deals can (cough-Wells-cough).
Actually, other than Stieb and Henke, I don't think there were hardly any homegrown Blue Jays locked into long term deals on the '92 squad. The money-makers were mostly her via trade of free agency.
Note the decade mentions - in the 80's the Jays did a great job holding guys and had major issues getting free agents. Trades, international free agents, waiver wire, rule 5 draft - that is how the core was built. In the winter of 1990-1991 the Jays figured they weren't going any further without major shifts though (note we are now in the 90's) and went out and did the killer trade (McGriff/Fernandez for Carter/Alomar) and the following winter started in on free agents (Winfield, Morris) and more the next winter (Stewart, Molitor). Then things fell apart as key pieces of the farm were traded earlier (such as Jeff Kent) while poor drafting for most of the 80's finally weakened the talent flow.
Late 90's the talent flow came back but poor decisions killed that team, while the 00's were killed by being in the nuclear division/low payroll/bad luck (runs for/against always better than record it seemed). Lets hope the 10's are better.
Late 90's the talent flow came back but poor decisions killed that team, while the 00's were killed by being in the nuclear division/low payroll/bad luck (runs for/against always better than record it seemed). Lets hope the 10's are better.
Is it me or has this been an abnormally quiet all-star hiatus? Shouldn't there be all sorts of wheeling and dealing in the books by now?
This break did seem to come at least a week earlier than usual this year, I think.
what are the odds that two players in the same lineup... both make a magical leap to a whole new level
Not so rare, I don't think....
D.Ortiz '03 (27): .961ops (Prev 3yrs: .839, .799, .810)
K.Youk '08 (29): .958ops (Prev 3yrs: .843, .810, .805)
C.Pena '07 (29): 1.037 (Prev 3yrs: .776, .802, .810)
B.Zobrist '09 (28): .948ops (Prev 3yrs: .844, .391, .572)
This break did seem to come at least a week earlier than usual this year, I think.
what are the odds that two players in the same lineup... both make a magical leap to a whole new level
Not so rare, I don't think....
While Encarnacion is going nowhere, Bautista is going bare for MLB promotional purposes. I guess that they had to compete with all those Olympic athletes and their calendars.
other than Stieb and Henke, I don't think there were hardly any homegrown Blue Jays locked into long term deals on the '92 squad.
And neither Stieb nor Henke could really be called locked in (you'll notice neither of them was back in 1993.) In 1992, Henke was in the final year of a three year, $7.5M deal; he was a free agent after 1992, the Jays didn't bother making him an offer, he signed a two year deal with Texas, and pretty well everyone was glad to be rid of him. (Don't get me started!)
Stieb had signed an "11 year deal" prior to the 1985 season. It was really a three year deal (through 1987) with eight (eight!?) club options. The team used five of those options - 1988 through 1992 - and by 1990 it was one of the better bargains in the game. They passed on the option after the 1992 season, and he signed with the White Sox that winter.
And neither Stieb nor Henke could really be called locked in (you'll notice neither of them was back in 1993.) In 1992, Henke was in the final year of a three year, $7.5M deal; he was a free agent after 1992, the Jays didn't bother making him an offer, he signed a two year deal with Texas, and pretty well everyone was glad to be rid of him. (Don't get me started!)
Stieb had signed an "11 year deal" prior to the 1985 season. It was really a three year deal (through 1987) with eight (eight!?) club options. The team used five of those options - 1988 through 1992 - and by 1990 it was one of the better bargains in the game. They passed on the option after the 1992 season, and he signed with the White Sox that winter.
Henke wasn't even homegrown either. He was FA compensation from Texas for the loss of Cliff Johnson I believe.
Looks like Appel refused the Pirates' best offer. Sure, he might make a million or two (or three) more next year, but turning down a guaranteed $3.8M and a chance to get started in pro ball? Seems pretty risky to me.
Not a surprise. Still, 8th overall does not leave much room to rise.
Will Encarnation move to first now? It's easier to platoon Lind if he's the DH.
Encarnacion has been the 1B since they put Lind in Vegas.