Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
These guys again.


Since the Jays swept the Braves in Dunedin, Atlanta swept three from Washington in DC and came home to take two of three from the Phillies. Freddie Freeman, who had plunged into a 1-28 slump after the humiliation of being fanned by Anthony Rizzo, finally busted out against Philadelphia, going 4-7 with a pair of HRs over the weekend. With both catchers on the IL, Wilmer Contreras has taken over behind the plate, although I expect we'll see the immortal Jeff Mathis at some point in the series. Probably on Thursday.

And Ronald Acuna is a mighty, mighty man. He doesn't need to hold his baby as tight as he can to make me believe it.

The Jays catch what looks like a break in that neither Huascar Ynoa nor Ian Anderson is scheduled to start in this series.It's just that in my experience, these "breaks" never work out the way you expect them to.

Danny Jansen hit .190 on his Balls in Play last season, an outcome so bizarrely and brazenly Unlucky that it would surely be impossible to duplicate. And he has not been able to duplicate it. So far this season, Jansen is hitting .083 in his Balls In Play. The mind reels at the impossibility of such a thing. Jansen has managed to hit safely in his last three game starts by hitting three home runs, thus entirely avoiding the clearly unsatisfactory path of putting the Ball in Play. It's simply not something that works for him.

Oh, and young Vlad Guerrero is 1 for his last 15, in the four games he played from May 6 through May 9. I'm not worried. Babe Ruth went 1-15 in the four games he played from May 6 through May 9 in 1920, and the Babe still managed to have a pretty decent season.

You could look it up! But if you don't want to - he hit .376/.532/.847 with 54 HRs and an OPS+ of 255. A little 1-15 in early May turned out not to mean much of anything.

Matchups? OK

TUES 11 May - Ray (1-1, 3.14) vs Wilson (1-2, 6.75)
WED 12 May - Ryu (2-2, 3.31) vs Fried (1-1, 8.44)
THU 13 May - Stripling (0-2, 6.61) vs Morton (2-2, 4.98)


Blue Jays at Atlanta, May 11-13 | 161 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#397721) #
It's yet another spooky encounter with the ghost of the mighty Babe. This morning I'm casually browsing the net, and I see a couple of articles (that I couldn't be bothered to read) on young Guerrero's slump. Pshaw, said I. (Well, I didn't actually say that.) I'm sure Babe Ruth had a 1-15 stretch in his greatest season. And I look at the Game Logs for 1920, and there it is. On the exact same days as Vlad's 1-15. The Babe has spooked me yet again.

Some seven years ago, in mid July, I thought it would be cool to write This Day In Babe Ruth. The Game Logs now go back far enough, and I'm pretty sure the Babe did something interesting on every day of the season. He was Babe Ruth, you could count on him for stuff. It might even develop into a regular feature! So I looked to see what cool stuff Ruth had done on the 11th of July, that being the next day on the calendar.

He'd made his major league debut, exactly one hundred years earlier.

I'm still spooked. Too spooked to even think about such a project...
grjas - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#397722) #
“Babe Ruth went 1-15 in the four games he played from May 6 through May 9 in 1920, “

Yikes. Is there a tiny cray computer in your cranium?
Magpie - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#397724) #
I was confident I'd find a 1-15 from the Babe. But I had no freaking idea it would be on the exact same days!

I believe in Elvis, the Beatles, and Babe Ruth. This is my creed.
grjas - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#397725) #
Yeah I laughed when I saw the dates. If it had been 1921, it would have been even spookier.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#397726) #
Mon 11 May - Ray (1-1, 3.14) vs Wilson (1-2, 6.75)Tue 12 May - Ryu (2-2, 3.31) vs Fried (1-1, 8.44)Wed 13 May - Stripling (0-2, 6.61) vs Morton (2-2, 4.98)

I think you meant:Tue 11 May - Ray (1-1, 3.14) vs Wilson (1-2, 6.75)Wed 12 May - Ryu (2-2, 3.31) vs Fried (1-1, 8.44)Thu 13 May - Stripling (0-2, 6.61) vs Morton (2-2, 4.98)

right?

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#397727) #
Dang, I knew I should have used preview. Why is this site so broken with firefox?

I think you meant:
Tue 11 May - Ray (1-1, 3.14) vs Wilson (1-2, 6.75)
Wed 12 May - Ryu (2-2, 3.31) vs Fried (1-1, 8.44)
Thu 13 May - Stripling (0-2, 6.61) vs Morton (2-2, 4.98)
Magpie - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#397728) #
Today's Tuesday? What happened to Monday? Where's my hat?
scottt - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#397729) #
The Yankees have activated Luke Voit.
The Rays are on the edge of dumping Tsutsugo.
Both teams are starting a 3 set in Tampa today.

This is the NL with no DH, so Tellez will probably only pinch hit.

The Braves are leading the NL with 48 HR, but they've also allowed 48.
The Jays are leading the AL with 48 HR, but have allowed only 42.
Guerrero is slumping, but so is Acuna with only 2 singles in his last 17 AB.
He was hitting .333 when he left Dunedin, now .305.

By OPS, last 7 days.
Semien 1.231         
Jansen 1.071
Grichuk .935
Biggio .921
Hernandez .864
Bichette .848
Tellez .818
Guerrero .483
Gurriel .333

On the other side:
Sandoval 1.667
Freeman 1.159
Swanson 1.074
Adrianza 1.056
Ynoa 1.000
Albies .739
Ozuna .701
Contreras .625
Riley .540
Acuna .368

Cracka - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#397730) #
This might be the best group of hitting pitchers that the Blue Jays have ever had. There are four guys on staff (plus one on IL) that have career home runs, plus Trent Thornton who had a couple of hits last year. Here are the career hitting stats for those with NL experience:

Ray: 146/160/185, 34 hits, 1 HR
Ryu: 178/226/239, 38 hits, 1 HR
Stripling: 093/133/093, 8 hits
--------------------------------
Chatwood: 206/236/240, 42 hits, 6 XBH
Matz: 172/203/253, 30 hits, 3 HR
Cole: 115/179/231, 3 hits, 1 HR
Milone (IL): 156/208/222, 4 hits, 1 HR


Which got me thinking... who was the best hitting pitcher ever as a Blue Jays? Maybe Stroman or Happ? Here are contenders - including an old favorite who once hit an dinger:

Happ (4/19)
Stroman (3/17, 1 HR)
W. Williams (3/8)
Thornton (2/3)
Halladay (3/38)
Dickey (2/19)
Carpenter (2/11)
Lurch (1/4, 1 HR)
Paul D - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#397731) #
Pearson down, Beasley up.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#397732) #
Was looking at Danny Jansen's BABIP yesterday after his appearance on a couple of "charts you don't want to be on" from a Dan ZIPS piece at FG.

268 players have 70+ PA's this year. Danny's .083 BABIP is dead last. 2 big issues I see. He's in the top 7% of that 268 group at popping up baseballs - over 20% of his contact.

The other ties in, a lack of hard contact. He's bottom 15%. Sadly a couple other scufflers, Cavan and Lourdes, have had even less success in that department.

Now here's an oddity. 2nd worst BABIP is Yasmani Grandal at .119. He's also hitting .113 vs Danny's .101. Yet Grandal has a 102 wRC+ vs Danny's 16. So how is it possible for Grandal to be better than league average? How about a crazy 29.7% walk rate. He's the MLB leader and it's not close. Max Muncy's next at 23.2% and no one else over 20%.
scottt - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#397733) #
Not to get into the aggressive hitter/free swinger dichotomy, but just being able to foul a lot of pitches helps with getting on base. If an ump calls 10% of the balls strike, the odds on close pitches can't be good.
scottt - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#397735) #
Worrying about who starts Saturday is a topic for the next thread, I guess.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#397736) #
The Jays have received pretty pathetic production from the DH spot, so playing under NL rules is a good thing.
Gerry - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#397737) #
Anthony Kay is the number 5 starter again, per Montoyo.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#397742) #
Cracka, on the question of best hitting Blue Jays pitchers - me have a few strong memories of Clemens being a good hitter. Specifically I recall him lacing a double into the gap against the Mets. If memory serves he gave up a couple runs in the bottom half, and still looked gassed from running the bases
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#397746) #
Despite the ugly ERA, Kay has actually improved this year. The cutter might be a good enough swing pitch to make him an effective starter and his control has improved.
ae_scott - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#397749) #
What are Da Box's thoughts on the 2021 version of Robbie Ray? Is this for real? After today's start his BB/9 is down to 2.83, which is WAY lower than it has ever been.
His home run rate is a little scary, but still.
Gerry - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#397750) #
Ray is like what they call an old fashioned country ball pitcher. Here is my hard fastball, what can you do with it?

He challenges hitters and sometimes they win. As long as he doesn't walk hitters, the home runs should be less damaging. What you see is what you get, sometimes he gets the hitters, sometimes the hitter gets him.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 11 2021 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#397751) #
Hey Magpie, looks like Babe Ruth broke out of his mini-slump.

Still haven't blown a 9th inning lead. 34 games down and the only BS was when Romano blew a lead in the 7th during the Angels series.

hypobole - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#397752) #
Some updates from ESPN:

Blue Jays: OF George Springer (right quad strain) could begin running on Thursday. He has been taking batting practice. ... RHP Anthony Castro (right forearm strain) is eligible to come off the 10-day IL but probably won't during the Atlanta series, according to manager Charlie Montoyo. ... The team is awaiting MRI results given RHP David Phelps (right lat strain)
pooks137 - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 02:55 AM EDT (#397754) #
That's potentially good news on David Phelps, in that a lat strain isn't structural and can be rehabbed.

Although I'd suspect that the recovery for that type of strain could easily hit 4-6 weeks like the Kirk and Springer injuries.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 06:53 AM EDT (#397755) #
looks like Babe Ruth broke out of his mini-slump.

You bet he did - 3-4, a pair of homers, drove in four runs. Vlad did fine as well.
scottt - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#397756) #
The Braves have a bullpen filled with lefties.
It's quite peculiar when it's not hard to find hard throwing righties like Castro and Payamps.
Not that I'm complaining.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#397759) #
Bob Ray is a Premier pitcher.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#397760) #
Bob Ray is a Premier pitcher.

And, of course, a lefty.

John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#397761) #
Crazy year - Jays/Yankees/Rays all within a game of each other, Red Sox leading by 2, O's back to the basement (5 1/2 out, 4 games sub 500). Vlad lead the AL in times on base (66, J.D. Martinez is 2nd at 64). Base-Out Runs & Wins Added (RE24, REW) are led by Vlad. REW he leads by 0.4 (2.0 vs JDM & Jared Walsh at 1.6). For WAR he is 7th (1.6 vs leader Byron Buxton at 2.7).
hypobole - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#397762) #
It started with this comment from another website:

Chatwood got in because of Montoyo's secret rule
"If I warm you up twice, you’re in no matter what!"

I'll discuss that comment if anyone is interested, but when I googled, I ended up finding this:

https://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-bullpen-managers-mike-matheny-joe-girardi/

Partway down, there is a very interesting chart on managers bullpen usage.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#397763) #
Interesting. Gibbons was pretty poor with the pen according to this (being generous with that assessment).

Right now we have 4 guys on the IL who should be in the pen. 17 relievers used so far this year. But in 144 2/3 IP out of the pen a 2.86 ERA which is fantastic. Payamps with the most innings at 15 1/3, Milone averaging over 2 innings an appearance, 5 guys who as relievers have a 0 ERA (Cole, Roark, Merryweather, Bergen, Castro), 2 more under 1 (Chatwood, Phelps), 2 more under 2 (Mayza, Thornton). Kay & Zeuch over 11 (ugh), Milone & Tice over . All with 5+ ERA's average more than an inning per relief appearance - the 3 with 6+ ERA's average over 2 innings per relief game (suggesting they are more 'main event' or whatever you want to call the guy after the opener, than reliever).

To me this says that Montoyo is doing an amazing job juggling the pen. Putting each guy in the best position to succeed rather than doing the old 'you have the 9th, you the 8th, etc'. Given the mess the rotation has been beyond Ryu/Ray/Matz this is critical - Stripling has an ERA over 6 in his 4 starts, averaging just 4 innings a start - ugh.

Outside the big 3 starters ERA is 7.09 over 15 starts (45 2/3 IP) with 7.3 K/9 3.5 BB/9;
Big 3 3.88 ERA over 19 starts (104 IP) with 9.3 K/9 2.1 BB/9.
Pen: 2.86 ERA over 123 games (144 2/3 IP) with 9.0 K/9 3.5 BB/9.

Yeah that is doing a great job with the pen and having nightmares after 1/2/3 in the rotation. If Pearson, Manoah, or whoever can come up and be a solid #4 this team should be laughing.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#397764) #
Yeah, I've always wondered about the disconnect between the way Gibby was perceived by the fanbase and by outside media. I only recall one manager rating article at the time and the criteria was poor. Challenge success was a large part of the rating (even remember uo pointing out the foolishness of that). Also remember the only real positive they gave - good with the media.

bpoz - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#397765) #
Matz has had 3 V good starts. His 1st 3. The next 4 are 2 bad and 2 ok.

Ryu 3 good, 2 kind of bad 5IP 4 ER. The 6th he was injured 3.2 IP 0 ER.

Ray 3 good and 3 ok.

Gerrit Cole 7 starts and pitching like a #1/Ace.

Ace ERA under 3.00

#1 3-3.5 ERA.

#2 3.5-4.00

#3 4.5-5.00

#4 4.5-5.00

#5 5.0+ ERA

This is my personal evaluation.
scottt - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#397766) #
Gibby had an expression, something like "locking in the win" to justify using the top relievers in games with large leads.

I had forgotten all about John Farrell.
Thanks for reminding me.

scottt - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#397767) #
By Game  Score:
Ray: 53, 56, 57, 61, 57, 59.
Wasn't as sharp in his first game, but otherwise, pretty consistent.

Matz: 73, 59, 67, 50, 22, 38, 43.
Was much better earlier on, but maybe heading the right way.

Ryu: 56, 62, 70, 37, 59, 44.
Not as dominant as last year.

Stripling: 37, 43, 48, 37.
Not sure that there is any upside.

John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#397768) #
At least Stripling didn't cost much - Ryan Noda (now 25 in AA, 1B/OF, 15th round pick), and Kendall Williams (2nd round pick RHP in 2019, just 7 pro games so far 20 IP 23 K vs 9 BB - nice arm, but who knows as hasn't left low A yet). So basically a RHP lottery ticket (until they get to AA I see them as lottery tickets) and a 1B/OF who looks like filler to me. Worth a shot, doesn't look like it will work out.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#397774) #
Not a badly called game for the final...


98% consistency is what the players want. As long as a strike is a strike for everyone all the time they are happy.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#397775) #
Doh - hardly the final when they play again tonight. ::smacks head:: Ryu vs Fried.
scottt - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#397777) #
Williams is still only 20 and looks better than when in was drafted, 52nd overall and signed over slot.
Stripling, by comparision, was drafted in the 5th round.
But yeah, we could still pick up someone better on waivers before he gets here.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#397778) #
And, of course, a lefty.

Plus, he can control the deficit.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#397779) #
How many times this year has Rowdy Tellez been the batter for the umpire's worst called strike against a Jay?  He's been in 22 games, so proportionately it would be 2 or 3, but it feels like it has been about 6 times and sometimes there have been more than one egregious calls. 

I don't know who has benefited the most from umpire calls this year, but I'd guess that it's Vladdy Jr.  (who had a pretty rough ride of it in his rookie year particularly).

scottt - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#397781) #
Yeah. I don't know. That strike to Tellez was so far outside. That really seemed out of nowhere.
If that was the establish strike zone for everyone, all the pitchers failed to take advantage of it except for that one pitch to Contreras.
Note that only 3 balls were called strikes and they're pictured in red.
The unumbered strike was too Albies.
Lots of hitters were swinging at balls.
The 7 pitches shown above were the only ones called incorrectly.
2 of the 4 strikes called balls were borderline.

scottt - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#397783) #
Not shown is Biggio getting called for a swing that he didn't take by the 3rd base ump.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#397784) #
Montoyo's partiality to Panik seems mainly due to his left-handedness. (Joe is a serviceable player.) Rowdy was briefly sent down, but in his case, there are simply fewer opportunities to insert him into the lineup. Biggio is the only other lefty and has been given plenty of playing time due to injuries, his versatility, and some faith in him to pick it up with the bat.
pooks137 - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#397789) #
I thought the baseline umps were the most trigger-happy with calling strikes on check swings last night that I can recall in recent memory.
scottt - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#397791) #
It was obvious because Biggio checked in slow motion and he was pretty upset about the call.
grjas - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#397792) #
Biggio at 3rd….. Opposing pitcher a lefty. Ryu serves up tonnes of ground balls. Isn’t this a tailor made opportunity for Espinal to play?
scottt - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#397793) #
Tellez is the DH and the 150M man could do nothing but DH, so that was a pretty easy call.
Gurriel has an option left as well.

In a NL park, Tellez should pinch hit once a game. That's that.

Magpie - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#397794) #
That strike to Tellez was so far outside. That really seemed out of nowhere.

I think what happened, on that pitch and doubtless others, is that the pitch looked like a strike on the corner for fifty-five feet and broke sharply at the end. And this stuff happens so fast that it's pretty well impossible for a human being to tell if it nipped the front of the strike zone on its way to being way outside by the time it crossed the back of the plate. And we have no way whatsoever of telling on the TV, until we all get three dimensional viewing units. Which will be very cool, I promise.
rpriske - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#397805) #
Gurriel was safe by a WIDE margin.

Why bother doing a review of they are going to ignore what they see on that review?
AWeb - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#397806) #
Tuned in just in time to see that rocket bt Teoscar. That was the longest one I've seen live in a long time.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#397807) #
Great game by Ryu.
Teoscar's 2 HR's almost made for him getting picked off in the 2nd inning.
Cole the 6th Jay with a save already. Can you name the other 5 without looking?
92-93 - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#397808) #
We used to get overhead views of the plate that made it pretty easy to see whether a ball caught the corner or not.

Gurriel was very likely safe, but Sportnet didn't show a conclusive replay. It was impossible to see if the glove was making contact with his jersey as he touched the bag.

Terrific start from Ryu, setting the bullpen up well for a sweep tomorrow. Borucki, Bergen, and Mayza have each had 4 days off, and Payamps 3.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#397809) #
If the Jays win tomorrow, they will have swept all six games against Atlanta (and, of course, AA) this season.
pooks137 - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#397811) #
Can you name the other 5 without looking?

Merryweather, Romano, Dolis, Bergen, Phelps

pooks137 - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#397812) #
Bergen and Phelps are incorrect.

I thought Bergen picked up a save last week, but he actually relieved Jordan Romano and pitched the bottom of the 9th after the Jays picked up 3 runs in the top half to extend the lead to 8-4 last Sat in Houston.

Mildly surprised Phelps doesn't have a save. It seems as though Montoyo has quite a bit of trust in him.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#397813) #
Wonder what the record for guys with a save for the Jays in a season is...

Getting out the Lahman Database which has all the data from 1871 to 2019 (takes awhile to add seasons as it is a pure volunteer effort).
  1. 2014: 8 pitchers 34 saves - 25 for Casey Jansen, no one else had more than 5
  2. 2015: 8 pitchers 45 saves - 20 for Osuna, no one else over 5.
  3. 1980: 7 pitchers 23 saves
  4. 1986: 7 pitchers 44 saves
  5. 1984, 1988, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2017, 2019, 2020 all had 6 pitchers getting between 17 (last year) and 47 saves.
Last year was quite odd to reach 6 guys getting saves in just 60 games. But 2020 was odd for a lot of reasons. 1994 was also a short season (115 games). The other really short season (1981) had just 3 guys get saves (total of 18) with one of those guys also have 19 starts out of 106 games.

Now, a tougher standard is 2+ saves (ie: wasn't just an oddity). Only once has that reached 6 - 2004 (37 saves total, peak was 17 for Frasor, then 7 for Speier so lots left over for the rest).

Now that I'm into it...
  • 3+ saves: 5 guys (2004, 2014)
  • 4+ saves: 4 guys (1983, 1985, 1998, 2014, 2018
  • 5+ saves: 4 guys (1983, 1985, 2018)
  • 6+ saves: 4 guys (1985, 2018)
  • 7+ saves: 4 guys (1985, 2018)
  • 8+ saves: 4 guys (1985 - none over 14, Caudill, Henke, Acker all with 10-14, Lavelle with 8)
  • 9+ saves: 3 guys (1984, 1985)
  • 10+ saves: 2 guys (1985, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 2003, 2011)
Kind of fun putting that together. Funny that 2015, the best season the Jays have had since 1993, had a pen led by a 20 year old, #3 in saves (with 4) also was 20. Crazy times. 1985 with 4 guys getting 8+ saves (out of 15 pitchers total) had the most regular season wins of any Jays club. Shows that having a lock down closer from day one isn't needed. Osuna had never been above A+ ball, Henke was taken from the Free Agent Draft (he was a scrap heap guy for Texas by then). Caudill was a big time closer back then but flopped here. I think this year has a great chance to break the record. If I was going to bet, I'd expect Payamps, Borucki, Chatwood, and Phelps to all get at least 1 save at some point this year. Heck, anyone could at any time. I love that Montoyo isn't playing with a fixed closer but instead uses whoever is best for each situation.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2021 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#397814) #
FYI: had to check, the record for most guys getting a save for a team in one year is 12 - done 4 times. The KC A's in 1959 and 1961, and the Texas Rangers in 1973, and Tampa Bay Rays (2020). 11 guys getting saves are Brooklyn Dodgers (1941, 1946), St Louis Browns (1951), ChiSox (1954), LA Angels (1962), KC A's (1966), Red Sox (1967), Atlanta Braves (1973), LA Dodgers (1979), Washington Nationals (2017), Atlanta (2019), Tampa Bay (2019). For last year I only checked a few teams (Tampa, Atlanta, Jays, Washington (1 guy only)).

Boy things have changed these past few years. Clearly other managers were already doing what Montoyo is doing and saying 'who cares about the save'. Thank goodness. It was getting silly with some guys never coming out unless it was a 9th inning (or later) save situation, or they needed work, or at home and tied 9th or later. I suspect this makes Mariano Rivera's record for saves very safe for a long time and Francisco Rodriguez's 62 save season the record for a long time too (since 2008).
Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#397816) #
Milone is one of the five but I'm drawing a blank on the other.
Spifficus - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#397817) #
I looked it up to confirm my beliefs.
My beliefs were not confirmed.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 05:41 AM EDT (#397819) #
Milone was a 3 inning save in the 15-1 win against the Angels.

It's a bit puzzling that nobody was willing to give Cole more than a minor contract.
And one with a late opt out to boot.
The Marlins signed Bass for 2 plus one option year.
He's 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 0 saves.

scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 05:52 AM EDT (#397820) #
There was that game in Boston in which Mayza was in line for the save but used 19 pitches to get the first 2 out and a right handed pitcher was called to get the final out. Jays won 6-3.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#397822) #
Morton has pitched once since the Jays beat him.
It went like that.
Ground out.
Strikeout, passed ball, runner on first.
Walk.
Single to LF.
Single to RF, 1-0.
Lineout to 2B.
Single to RF, 3-0.
Home Run, 6-0.
Walk.
New pitcher. Final score 12-2.
Morton's ERA actually went down since none of the 6 runs were earned.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#397823) #
Teoscar being back to his 2020 level is huge for this offence.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#397824) #
Funny how Bichette and Semien are "almost the same guy".
Biggio had a huge walk/stolen base sequence that produced the first run.
Gurriel has had 125 PA to find his swing, Tellez 75.
McGuire hitting .333 with a 122 OPS+ after 3 games.

Chuck - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#397825) #
Fangraphs presents the staff's top three quite favourably when focusing on xFIP.
      ERA xERA  FIP xFIP
Ryu  2.95 3.49 3.20 3.17
Matz 4.86 4.21 4.26 3.78
Ray  3.38 4.21 4.71 3.45

While Ray has been lucky to post such a low ERA, his HR/FB has been unusually high. And Matz's components all spell out better results than his ERA.

None of this guarantees anything beyond today, of course.

scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#397827) #
Will be interesting to see how Ray and Matz do against teams that don't hit as many long balls.


grjas - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#397832) #
W L
ryu 5 2
matz 5 2
Ray 3 3
sub 13 7
Others 6 9
19 16

Team record when the top 3 and others start. Hopefully one of Pearson, Hatch or Manoah can fill in one of the other spots
pooks137 - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#397833) #
I looked it up to confirm my beliefs. My beliefs were not confirmed.

I looked up the answer last night and had already forgotten again by this morning.

Hint - The fifth player isn't on the active roster.

Cracka - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#397834) #
McGuire with another start at Catcher; Montoyo appears to be using a "platoon" approach with Reese this season, starting him against RHP but pinch-hitting for him late in the game, especially against lefties. He has not finished any of the 3 games that he has started this year.

This is a big difference from 2019-20, when he started 38 games and finished 36 of them - just having been removed twice in-game for a PH. In the past, Montoyo has favored the "alternating" approach, letting the starting C play the entire game. Will be interesting to see if he keeps "platooning" Jansen & McGuire and letting them both play on a regular basis.
pooks137 - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#397835) #
Others 6 9

I'm surprised the team's record is as good as it is between starting Roark, Stripling, Pearson, Thornton, Milone and Kay.

scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#397836) #
It's not a platoon.
Jansen always catch Ryu.
Jansen never catches Ray.
The day catcher is not the same as the starter from the previous night.

No reason to have McGuire face lefties late in game.
That's almost the only platoon advantage that Montoyo can use.


scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#397837) #
Having said that, I wonder who the emergency catcher is with Panik on the shelf.


hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#397838) #
Posted about Hagen Danner last night. If he makes it to the bigs, would he be the emergency catcher? Has any pitcher been the emergency catcher?
grjas - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#397839) #
I'm surprised the team's record is as good

Yeah I was pleasantly surprised as well. Kudos to the relievers.
Nigel - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#397840) #
I think long balls against Matz and Ray are features not bugs. Both can still function pretty effectively if they aren't walking the house.
John Northey - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#397841) #
Ugh. 1st inning and an out lost due to Biggio already. Why on earth is he at 3B every single game? Why is Espinal who looks great on defense so rarely used? Sigh.
Kasi - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#397842) #
Because Espinal's upside on batting is so much worse? I mean his numbers are ok this season but that was on top of a .400 babip which isn't going to last. Anyway they would prefer to play Biggio and 3b is where he's going to fit most of the time since the OF will be crowded when Springer returns.
krose - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#397843) #
Robo umps will make the game better.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#397844) #
And Biggio scores that runs right back.

Biggio at 3rd is the cost of having Semien.
It's a good trade off for many reasons.
Semien is the perfect guy to work with Bichette.

Kasi - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#397845) #
You could also argue that Davis should have had that ball. Not really all on Biggio (if its the play I'm thinking of). Anyway Stripling I think has something there and he's shown it in the past but I think he can be a serviceable 5 but yeah he seems susceptible to bad innings. But he does have a good K rate and his velocity has ticked up so I do think there is something there.
hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#397846) #
If Morton was a lefty, I would play Espinal. Very SSS, but he hasn't hit RHP's in the majors. 40 wRC+ total, 1 for 7 this year.
Chuck - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#397847) #
And we have no way whatsoever of telling on the TV, until we all get three dimensional viewing units.

I understand the 2D vs. 3D concern over an automated strike zone, and that the rectangle we see on TV is no more than a plane at the front of a 3D strike zone. But I have a serious question. Is it within the laws of physics, or at least within reasonable probability, that a pitch can be thrown and cross the 3D strike zone but not the plane that we see at the front of it?

Left/Right: A breaking pitch would have to go around the rectangle and cross some portion of the plate.

Down/Up: A pitch with a downward trajectory would have to go over the of the rectangle and descend into the 3D strike zone. Similarly, a Quisenberry-like pitch with an upward trajectory would have to go under the rectangle and then rise into the 3D strike zone.

Is the strike zone deep enough for pitches to bypass the rectangle but nonetheless find the portion of the strike zone behind the rectangle? I understand that in principle it is, I'd just want to see actual evidence that such pitches actually exist.

scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#397848) #
Davis didn't think the runner would go to third or he would have charged more aggressively.

It looks like Stripling was trying to establish his fastball early but Acuna had other plans.
Stripling's problem is the lack of command. He's catching too much of the plate on many of his strikes.
Swinging strikes in the middle of the plate are cool but dangerous.

hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#397849) #
It's the 4th inning and I'm hoping Stripling lasts long enough to get pinch hit for in the bottom of the frame. That said, was a great pitch to finally K Swanson.
Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#397850) #
Why on earth is [Biggio] at 3B every single game?

Because he's going to be the team's third baseman this year? And anyway, he hasn't been there every day. Biggio's actually played less at "his" position than any of the other regular starters on the team- even less than the catcher - except for Hernandez who spent time on the COVID list. And if you were going to put in Espinal for a day, I think you'd do it when there was a LH on the mound.

I'm not sure Davis could have caught that ball, even if he'd gotten a better read. But when you hit like Davis, you need to make big defensive plays. And not mess up running the bases.
Chuck - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#397851) #
Question (and I don't know the answer): Has anyone ever played as much as Mathis (3000 career PA) and hit worse than his 48 OPS+?

He has logged major league at-bats every year since 2005. He peaked at age 29 with a 72 OPS+.

Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#397852) #
Is it within the laws of physics, or at least within reasonable probability, that a pitch can be thrown and cross the 3D strike zone but not the plane that we see at the front of it?

I always thought that's exactly what a back door slider is supposed to do. It's outside the zone at the front of the plate but breaks enough to nip the corner at the back.
johnny was - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#397853) #
Reese McGuire appears to want his job back.
hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#397854) #
A pitch with a downward trajectory would have to go over the of the rectangle and descend into the 3D strike zone.

12-6 curveballs seem to do that that fairly often. Compare where it crosses the box and where it hits the catchers glove
Chuck - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#397855) #
I always thought that's exactly what a back door slider is supposed to do.

Yeah, "supposed to do". But does it really? Or is it just something people say? It always sounded very fishy to me.

Chuck - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#397856) #
12-6 curveballs seem to do that that fairly often. Compare where it crosses the box and where it hits the catchers glove.

But the catcher is far behind the plate. Where it hits his glove is of no consequence. Your 12-6 curve would have to start its descent over the top of the rectangle and slice through the 3D strike zone behind it. I'm not saying this is technically impossible, I'm just wondering if it ever really happens.

Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#397857) #
Has anyone ever played as much as Mathis (3000 career PA) and hit worse than his 48 OPS+?

The first guy I thought of was Mario Mendoza, from whom the immortal Mendoza Line takes its name (even though Mario hit .215 in his career), and while Mendoza's career OPS+ is an unsightly 41, he was only allowed to make some 1300 plate appearances. I checked some other famous non-hitting shortstops - Dal Maxvil, Eddie Brinkman, Bobby Wine - they were all in the mid 50s.

The best I've got for you is Rafael Belliard, who played 17 seasons and made 2500 plate appearances, with an OPS+ of 46.
Nigel - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#397858) #
In the general sense, this lineup needs what Biggio has to offer (LH and OBP) - so he should be in the lineup most days. I also think that on most days he's going to have to play 3B whether he's good defensively or not - there just aren't going to be other choices. Now, if its a LH starter then you have to think harder about using Espinal. But, today, the choice for me would have been Espinal versus Gurriel (with Biggio playing RF). As badly has he as struggled this year, I think you have to keep giving Gurriel ABs right now because he's about to spend some time on the bench when Springer returns.
hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#397859) #
Id did the same thing with Mathis at FG about a month ago. 46 wRC+ career. Didn't go back to the dawn of time, but the past 100 years, he's #1. Hal Lanier and Tommy Thevenow at 49 are the only others under 50 wRC+
Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#397860) #
Hal Lanier! Good one! I also thought of guys like Ray Oyler and Luis Gomez, who turned out to be even worse than Mathis, but neither got even half the major league PApps.

I once noticed that pitchers tended to have ERAs half a run better when Mathis was their catcher. It happened consistently, and it's a great huge thing. My best theory was that he slipped the umpire a fistful of bills before the game started.
Chuck - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#397861) #
One more thing about backdoor sliders, I'd be dubious of the physics already were the plate a 17x17 square, but given that the otherwise square plate has two wedges removed at the back, how less likely now is a backdoor slider to go around the rectangle and catch some of the plate.

I'd be happy to hear what physicists have to say about all this. I'd be willing to wager that an automated 2D rectangle would eliminate more human error than would be introduced by the missed magic loogie pitches that bypass the rectangle and catch the plate.

92-93 - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#397862) #
Mere seconds after Buck says the one run lead feels larger because the Jays bullpen is so good, Swanson goes deep and the Braves move ahead.
Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#397863) #
Chris Martin? Did the band break up?
hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#397864) #
Goldstein chat a few weeks back. Question re: public vs team analytics. The public ones are pretty close except for catchers. A bunch of aspects that teams value greatly, but aren't and can't be picked up by the publicly available.
Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#397865) #
Buck says the one run lead feels larger

The next one run lead that feels large will be the first one.

Although I seem to think there have been one run deficits that felt enormous.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#397866) #
What is it with Braves getting hurt playing the Blue Jays.
I think it goes back to Freeman getting hit by a pitch a few years back.

pooks137 - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#397867) #
Posted about Hagen Danner last night. If he makes it to the bigs, would he be the emergency catcher? Has any pitcher been the emergency catcher?

If I'm not mistaken, Josh Donaldson wasn't even the emergency catcher in the Josh Donaldson era. Although, for the life of me I can't remember who was designate. Darwin Barney?

John Northey - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#397868) #
With Biggio it just drives me nuts as he was solid at 2B, but has never shown any signs of being better than Vlad was at 3B. Especially when Espinal has looked so solid at 3B. I get Biggio is a far better hitter - I've been a fan of his from day one. It is just that defense drives me nuts.
Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#397869) #
Has any pitcher been the emergency catcher?

Not ina hundred years, I'll wager. No manager would dare, no pitcher would consent. Catcher's throwing hands take an enormous amount of abuse, and by the end of their careers often look weird and deformed.
uglyone - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#397870) #
Not sure I'll ever trust a guy with Bergeron stuff but that's another clutch outing against the tough part of the order.
Thomas - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#397871) #
Biggio strikes again! He's more than making amends.
Kasi - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#397872) #
Sure Biggio was alright at 2b. But Semien is both a better hitter and a much better fielder so its a no brainer to allow him to slot where he feels comfortable. I assume at some point this year either Bichette or Semien will get hurt and Biggio will play more 2b. But its nice to see both Bichette and Biggio playing better lately.
uglyone - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#397873) #
Gurriel to the bench, Kirk to DH, and jansen/McGuire being passable offensively to go with their great receiving, and the orders looks pretty tight.
uglyone - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#397874) #
"But Semien is both a better hitter and a much better fielder"

Not sold on either of those tbh.
Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#397875) #
[Biggio] has never shown any signs of being better than Vlad was at 3B

Hang in there. He'll get better. He's a smart player, he'll figure out what he needs to do to be adequate. He's played 80 pro games at the position and half of those were years ago.
Kasi - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#397876) #
I don't think Kirk is quite good enough offensively to be the fulltime DH. Not that I think the Jays are willing to consider a full time DH. I think for the foreseeable future the DH role is going to be some mix of Hernandez and Springer. Bichette will likely DH as much as Kirk does too.
Kasi - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#397877) #
Sure you're not sold I guess, but Biggio will never have as good a year as Semien had in 2019. Maybe Biggio will further improve, but I just don't think the bat is good enough. He has elite strike zone judgement, but his contact skills aren't good enough. Not that I think Semien is a super bat, but he's on pace for for 5+ WAR this year so I'm pretty happy with that.
uglyone - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#397878) #
That is the only season Semien has even been close to as good a hitter as Biggio has been in EACH of his first two seasons.
Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#397879) #
Biggio will never have as good a year as Semien had in 2019.

I doubt that Semien will ever have as good a year as Semien had in 2019. It is somewhat of an outlier in the man's career. Biggio did have the equivalent of 5.0 WAR season just last year, 2.0 WAR in 60 games.
uglyone - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#397880) #
Kirk has been one of our best hitters since he came up, with the underlying numbers to match, and projects to be a better hitter than most of the guys on the team.
John Northey - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#397881) #
A good problem. Biggio is a good player, just out of position and hasn't learned as fast as Vlad has learned 1B. Espinal should be used in the 9th of close games as often as possible. Next year odds are Semein will be elsewhere so Biggio goes back to 2B. Top prospects at SS throughout the system so one will probably go to 3B for next year.
bpoz - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#397882) #
Sweep!!
Mike Green - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#397883) #
Marcus Semien and Cavan Biggio are both good to very good ballplayers, and assets to any club for their intelligence and work ethic in addition to their "raw" ability.

I could get used to this late rally habit.  It's interesting that they've been doing it with a long sequence offence mostly.  With the dampened ball, that might become a more common approach.  Today, the Braves outhomered the Jays 2-0, but the Jays were 3/7 W/K while the Braves were 2/15. 

The Jays are now on pace for 90 wins despite all the injuries. We've sung the praises of the bullpen enough times but it has been the one constant of the year so far (despite all the changing faces).  The Montoyo/Walker team deserve a lot of credit for it.  



Mike Green - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#397884) #
It should be noted that while the rallies have mostly come via the long sequence offence, the Jays did lead the American League in home runs prior to today. 
greenfrog - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#397885) #
I'm a bit perplexed as to why people have been criticizing Semien in the early going. I think he's been great so far. He's currently on pace for 6+ WAR/162 games. As mentioned a few days ago, I'm predicting a 4+ WAR season for him in 2021.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#397886) #
Pretty good day for Biggio.
That bullpen full of lefties is great for the Jays.

Bergen picks up the win. His first in career?
McGuire now hitting .375. Great call to play him.
Hernandez is now hitting .304.
Grichuk is down to .275.
Gurriel is up to .195.

As they keep hitting doubles, the runs come easy.

Atlanta is down 17-20 and could be struggling for a while without Acuna.
Ankles don't heal that fast and running is a huge part of his game.

Magpie - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#397887) #
Bergen picks up the win. His first in career?

His first for Toronto. He was 2-0 as a Giant, 1-0 as a D'Back. Still unbeaten!

McGuire in the lineup was automatic, almost all managers switch catchers when it's an afternoon game after a night game.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#397888) #
Semien had a slow start, but he's been great defensively.
Good arm, huge range, accurate throws.

The Jays are able to get by with only 3 starters because of the bullpen depth.
Montoyo has been able to use the guys he has very well, including Milone.
Guerrero's synchronized routine with Romano is gold.
I'd love to see all the infield doing it.

I'm not a huge fan of Biggio in the outfield.
Nobody's complaining about Teoscar anymore.
Gurriel keeps improving.


hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#397889) #
Robbie Ray zoned out no more.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/robbie-ray-finds-the-strike-zone/
grjas - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#397890) #
I didn’t watch the game and can’t really tell from the comments above how well Stripling pitched. The box score looks good with 9 strikeouts and only 4hits against a good hitting team. The sportswriters seemed high on his effort.

Did he pass the eye test? His pre BJ numbers are pretty good and he isn’t that old so it would be a big bonus if he could continue to go 5 or 6 innings with numbers in that range.
Michael - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#397891) #
He looked good to me in 4th and 5th innings, I didn't catch his earlier innings.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#397892) #
Stripling came out trying to establish the fastball which was around 92mph.
Acuna was waiting for it and crushed the first pitch out of the park.
He gave 2 up to more hits on blooping flyballs for another run.
His best pitch is the curve, but he had a good slider today and McGuire called a decent game.
The strike zone was pretty wide and he took advantage.
He managed to get out of the 5th and was inline for the win after getting Acuna, but Mayza gave up 2 runs and they dropped to 3-4.

grjas - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#397893) #
Ok thx. Sounds like he could at least be a serviceable #5. Now if one of the kids could step up..
hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#397894) #
Looking at our upcoming schedule. It's brutal. Only 2 of our next 31 games is against a team currently under .500.

Philly 3, Boston 3, Tampa 4, Yankees 3, Cleveland 3, Miami 2, Houston 3, White Sox 3, Boston 4, Yankees 3.
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#397895) #
Every GM takes Semien over Biggio. If you're looking at bat only, it's a lot closer, but the reality is, defence is a big part of it and Semien smokes Biggio in that department.

He's got a good chance to be our 2nd best player this year, and I can't say that about Biggio.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#397896) #
It’s strange, it feels like a lot of the team is still behind schedule yet we’re on a 90 win pace. The depth of the team is perhaps better than I gave credit to and perhaps I should have confidence in this group.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#397897) #
Boston/Tampa/Yankees are the teams to beat. I'm sure they're not jumping for joy when they see the Blue Jays either.

Philly. We saw them a bunch this spring and the Jays kept crushing them.
You'll see in the next thread that the match ups are pretty good. 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

Cleveland. Anxious to play them. Montoyo basically lost on purpose last year so we faced Tampa instead of them. Only 2-3 of the regulars with OPS+ over 100, but good pitching.

Miami. Like the Jays, they only have 3 decent starters. Luck of the draw. Funny that the Jays will move out of Florida just in time to host a Florida team.

Houston. Meh

White Sox. Will be interesting to see these guys. Lots of good hitters, but dead last in the AL for home runs with only 31. Pitching looks decent too. 

scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#397898) #
When the Yankees play in the NL, they lose either Stanton or they have to put him in the outfield and take their chances. When the Jays play in the NL, they only lose one of the guys who hasn't hit.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#397899) #
Starting to look like the Yankees have a Covid outbreak.

8 coaches/staff yesterday. Gleyber Torres today.
They recalled Anduar and Urshella will play short.


hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#397900) #
Just had a hmmmm moment. Brewers have 3 OF's acknowledged as plus defenders and they have been plus this year - Lorenzo Cain, Jackie Bradley jr., and Tyrone Taylor. Yet none of UZR/150, DRS or OAA has any of these guys ahead of another OF on the team. Who is it?


By the way, the 6th guy who has a save for us that wasn't named earlier is Anthony Castro.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#397901) #
Springer, Kirk, Hatch, Merryweather, Phelps, Dolis, Castro, Pearson, Manoah...there is a *lot* of talent on the sidelines and in the minors that should be available to help the team in the coming weeks and months. Just getting Springer back in center field will significantly upgrade the roster.
scottt - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#397903) #
Yankees aren't hitting much:
LeMahieu .266
Stanton .285
Judge .269
Urshela .288
Sanchez .176
Ford .098
Frazier .144
Andujar .000
Gardner .185

Tampa is ever worse, hitting .212 as a team, 12th in the AL.

dalimon5 - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#397906) #
Your trivia is so random I'll take my chances and assume it's a former Jays player like McKinney.

John Northey - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#397907) #
greenfrog - that is why I'm getting very excited about this team (and 2022's team).  So much talent that has been sidelined with the team still tied for 2nd in the AL East (tied with Yankees who are playing Tampa, Tampa leading 9-0 as I type).

Pitching not here beyond those greenfrog listed:
Nick Allgeyer: AAA age 25, 1.50 ERA over 12 2/3 IP 7 H 5 BB 10 SO
Simeon Woods Richardson: AA age 20, 9 IP 5 H 4 R 2 ER 3 BB 16 SO
Austin Martin: AA age 22, 160/364/320, taking walks showing some ISO but not much else so far
Gabriel Moreno: AA age 21, 500/586/750 - wow.  and a catcher too. 

and many others.  The current team running the Jays has built up some nice prospects.  Now if they can convert them into solid ML'ers or trade them for solid guys this could be a sweet team for a long time.  The 1983-1993 stretch has to be the gold standard here - 11 years over 500 ending with 2 WS wins, plus 3 more playoff appearances (when only 4 teams made it) - 91 wins per year on average (86-99 win range) - last year was year one of this window with a playoff appearance and a prorated 86 wins and a (cheap - 6th place in the AL which normally would've been no playoffs) playoff appearance.  This year lets hope for a solid win the division 90+ win season (90 win pace right now).
hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#397908) #
Yeah, McKinney been the Brewers best OF defender so far on a team with a bunch of good OF defenders.
hypobole - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#397909) #
During the NYY-TBR game, they mentioned the Rays strike out a lot. They scored 9, but also K'ed 16 times. All 9 starters K'ed at least once. Had to check.

Tigers are the only AL team worse than TBR's 27.7 K%. We were called free swingers here the other day. Our K% is 22.8. But that's 5th best. Only 4 AL teams K less than we do. Angels in 2nd place are at 22.2%

Went back 3 years. We also K'ed 22.8% in 2018. But that placed us 12th, only 3 teams K'ed more.

3 more years to 2015. Astro's 22.9% was worst. And this years 2nd best Angels 22.2% would have been 2nd worst.

Quite a dramatic change over the course of a few years.
grjas - Thursday, May 13 2021 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#397910) #
Merryweather, Phelps, Dolis, Castro, Yates all injured and others like Chatwood and Romano off for a while as well.

The work of the relief core to date would have been impressive if those guys had all been active so far. It’s astonishing what they’ve achieved without them.
scottt - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#397911) #
All the positive Yankees had the Janssen vaccine.
Torres had Covid-19 last December to boot.

Leaside Cowboy - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#397914) #
If I'm not mistaken, Josh Donaldson wasn't even the emergency catcher in the Josh Donaldson era. Although, for the life of me I can't remember who was designate. Darwin Barney?

I can vaguely recall John Gibbons mentioning that Donaldson was the emergency catcher. However, Darwin Barney rings a bell. Maybe even Ryan Goins? (Only Donaldson has ever appeared at the catcher position and not since 2012 with Oakland.) John McDonald was the emergency catcher in his heyday, but never caught during his career.

For the 2021 Blue Jays, would Biggio play the part? His father appeared in 427 games at catcher from 1988 to 1991 -- plus one game in 2007.

scottt - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#397916) #
I think they try to avoid distracting full time players with that.
So my guess would be Espinal.

Chuck - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#397917) #
I can vaguely recall John Gibbons mentioning that Donaldson was the emergency catcher. |

That makes sense since Donaldson actually was a catcher before he converted to third base.

John Northey - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#397918) #
Espinal would be a reasonable guess, as would Davis (although with speed such a big part of his game maybe not). I'd bet Panik has been that in the past. Biggio I could easily see doing it even if it wasn't for his dad due to his super-utility status (4 positions so far in 2021, 6 + DH in his career, no games at SS, CA, or P so far). But as Scottt said you rarely bother regulars with that duty. I remember Rob Ducey was the emergency catcher during his career (never was used but I saw him in the gear in pre-game shows in the late 80's/early 90's - he had to do something to get back into Cito's good graces after blowing him off early on).
Chuck - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#397919) #
We were called free swingers here the other day.

Another way to measure "free swinging" is OSwing%, the percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone that get swung at.

The Dodgers are best, at 26%, and KC/Det/Bos are worst, at 34%. Toronto is middle of the pack at 31%.

Gurriel ranks 10th worst in MLB at 43%, Bichette 14th at 39%, and Grichuk 19th at 38.5%. This latter one feels like a red flag as we all worry about a regression in his play.

Tied for 20st best in MLB are Biggio, no surprise, at 23.7% and... Guerrero (!). That Guerrero now lays off as many non-strikes as Biggio speaks volumes to his growth.

The counterpart to OSwing% is ZSwing%, the percentage of pitches inside the strike zone that get swung at. I don't know that it is a virtue to NOT swing at pitches in the strike zone, though context means a lot. So, absent value judgements being placed on these numbers, the lowest rate belongs to SD/Mil/Ari/LAA at 65% and the highest rate to Atl at 74%. Toronto is near the high end at 70%.

hypobole - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#397925) #
Actually, Chuck, your definition is more accurate. So I checked. The guy who stands out to me so far is Teoscar:

Career - 2020 - 2021 - AL Avg 2021
O-swing% 31.2% - 34.3% - 29.5% - 31.4%
Z-swing% 71.6% - 63.7% - 76.0% - 68.5%
Swing% 47.8% - 46.4% - 48.7% - 47.0%

Not going to post the contact #'s, but he still makes less contact than the average AL batter. But all his contact #'s have been way up this year, approaching average, which is really good for a power hitter.

Still a very SSS, but it's great if he can keep it up.
Magpie - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#397928) #
Rob Ducey! There's a name from the past.! I remember three things about Ducey, and let's see if I can a) get them in context, and b) tell a story!

At age 22 in 1987, Ducey had a fine year in Syracuse - certainly better than Sil Campusano. He didn't do much in a September callup, but the following spring he and Campusano were allegedly competing for a major league job. The team had decided to move move its left fielder (and league MVP) and centre fielder to new positions. (Both of whom were very unhappy about the idea.) Ducey thoroughly outplayed Campusano in the spring. It didn't matter, the team had made these decsions over the winter. Ducey was sent to Syracuse, Campusano was installed in centre field.

Ducey played well in a September 1988 callup, and broke with the team in spring 1989 as the fourth outfielder. He started playing regularly after Barfield was traded. But he didn't play well. Junior Felix got called up and Felix did play well. And then Ducey hurt himself in some kind of weird collision with the outfield wall (during BP) and that was his season.

He spent 1990 in Syracuse, came up in September and played very well, mostly filling in for Bell.

He was around for two more years. He didn't make the team out of spring 1991 (Carter-White-Whiten was the outfield, Mookie and Glenallen Hill were the extra guys.) He came up after Whiten and Hill were traded, but didn't do much. So the team gave Cory Snyder a shot and then brought in Candy Maldonado. Ducey was the fifth outfielder again in 1992, but there was absolutely no playing time available. They traded him to the Angels in August and expanded the bullpen to six - yes, six - relievers.

He stuck with it, didn't he? Went to a Japan for a couple of years, played until he was 37. Appeared in 13 MLB seasons. Had more than 200 ABs exactly once. It all could have been very different, and that's the way it goes. A slump at the wrong time, an injury at the wrong time, a boneheaded front office decision. A butterfly flaps its wings in China.
Magpie - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#397929) #
I can't remember many details of Ducey's injury. Like when or how or what body part was involved. And I'm guessing that it was 1989. All I really remember is that it was the early days of the Dome, and involved some kind of collision with the wall, possibly an open door... who knows. The record does tell us that Ducey appeared in each of the first three games played at the Dome in early June 1989. And then he played in just 10 games, all at Syracuse, over the next three months.
rikley - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#397935) #
https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=19900519&slug=1072525

Here are the details of Ducey’s 89 injury. He actually filed a lawsuit..
scottt - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#397938) #
Interesting. His wiki page says that he was a scout for the Blue Jays until 2009 when he was fired by AA because coverage of Asia was not a priority. Went on to scout for the Rays, before reverting to hitting coach.
Currently hitting coach in Taiwan.

Mike Green - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#397940) #
Teoscar's IsoP is also lower this year than any year since his rookie year in 2016.  He also has 18 singles in 20 games so far. Previous to this year, he had 150 singles in 377 at-bats, so his single rate this year is about double what it was before.  His line-drive rate is up from about 20% average prior to this year to 33%.   

It looks to me like he has sacrificed a little bit of pop for better plate control and it seems to be working.  With his speed, putting the ball in play is a definite plus if the sacrifice in power is not too great- he will get more than his share of infield hits in addition to line drive singles. 
hypobole - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#397945) #
I remember AA firing Ducey. Also remember a rumour of an overused expense account. So I checked. Found this from a famous website.

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20091009114332604

John Northey posted this:
From Canoe...

"Ducey recently submitted a $350,000 bonus to scout Japan. The Jays approved roughly $40,000. "

Hmm... I think that explains why he was let go. One wonders what the bonus was and why he claimed so much more than was approved.
scottt - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#397946) #
Funny wording.  A bonus is something that's added to one's paycheck.
You don't submit a bonus.
An expense account is where one submits receipts to get them reimbursed.
The Jays, being owned by Rogers would likely have all the necessary checks in place where executives have to approve the expenses. 350K seems like something that would have needed Beeston's signature.
I think the biggest expense when scouting Japan/Korea/China might be the interpreter.
Remember the president of the Mariners complaining about having to pay 75K for an interpreter and the player/scout's English getting better after hearing that?

Four Seamer - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#397947) #
I remember well (or at least I remember well the fact I spent a great deal of time following it; the details of it are a bit fuzzy) that 1988 camp battle. I was 11 and convinced that Ducey had won that job in style and by a country mile, sending me into a patriotic frenzy, and the sting of them handing it to Campusano aged me into a cynical adolescent right quick. I was so angry that I launched a boycott of the team, which I conveniently dropped on Opening Day when George Bell went deep three times (though I took great and perverse satisfaction in Campusano's struggles - my heartfelt apologies to Mr. Campusano for taking out my irritation with Pat Gillick and Jimy Williams on him).
Gerry - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#397950) #
The Jays have signed Carl Edwards Jr and assigned him to Buffalo. More depth.
scottt - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#397951) #
Reminds me how I felt about Ezequiel Carrera playing at replacement value while Pompey was getting regular playing time in the minors. After trying out Alford and McKinney, Davis has become the 4th (5th) outfielder.
Pompey is a similar type of player, but Pompey was actually faster. The difference is that Davis has managed to stay healthy and keep a positive attitude and has outlasted the other guys.

mathesond - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#397958) #
Carl Edwards Jr.! There' a name I haven't thought of in a while. I remember him doing well for the Cubs in the playoffs, and sure enough, 5 scoreless appearances between the NLDS and NLCS. Gave up a couple runs against Cleveland in the Series, though.
BlueMonday - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#397965) #
Sorry to prolong this thread when we're on to another series, but thanks for the stories about Rob Ducey. It's hard to believe he won a Tip O'Neill award - 1986 in his minor league days mostly with AA with Knoxville. This was a thin year for Canadian ball players.

Such a checkered career with the Jays. Suing the stadium may not have been a wise career move, but at least that was before the team owned SkyDome. Funny to see he was reacquired by the Jays in 2000 at the age of 35, only to be traded back to the Phillies after 5 games. His time with the Jays with the firing sure ended poorly. I didn't remember the story re blowing off Cito, and couldn't find anything online - John N, can you tell that story?
grjas - Friday, May 14 2021 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#397966) #
You don't submit a bonus.

No but it’s normal to submit a “bonus request” for approval which is what I think they meant.
Blue Jays at Atlanta, May 11-13 | 161 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.