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Baseball America revealed their Top 30 Blue Jay prospects today.  There is a subscriber only chat at 2 pm.  Baseball America are higher on Ryan Patterson and Brandon Magee than Batters Box was and the big surprise is Balbino Fuenmayor at number 10.

BA's Top 10 is:

1. Adam Lind, of
2. Travis Snider, of
3. Ricky Romero, lhp
4. Ryan Patterson, of
5. Curtis Thigpen, c
6. Francisco Rosario, rhp
7. Brandon Magee, rhp
8. Jesse Litsch, rhp
9. David Purcey, lhp
10. Balbino Fuenmayor, 3b

Batters Box top 10 is here.

BA also rates Best Tools, see their story for the details.

As you look at these ratings remember that BA is very focused on ceiling, or how good could this player be.  That explains why Fuenmayor is rated so highly as he has a chance to be very good but obviously he is a long way away from the major leagues.  If a player is at AAA and looks like he could be a bullpen pitcher or an average hitter, BA will look at his ceiling as an average major leaguer and rank him lower than a hot shot prospect at Low A.

BA staffers have already indicated in earlier chats that the Blue Jay system ranks lowest in the AL East and probably ultimately will be in the mid-20's.  Once again this rating reflects that, in BA's opinion, there are few potential stars in the system.  There could be lots of average major league  players in the system but that's not how BA rates them.

Baseball America Top 30 Prospects | 17 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 12:23 PM EST (#157818) #
There's a few differences in the BA and BB lists. The biggest difference is probably Brandon Magee, the Jays 4th round pick this year. A senior pick, Magee was solid, but unspectacular in the NYP League. Magee didn't crack the top 30 on the Batter's Box list, but the Jays are certainly high on him and BA rated his slider the best in the system.

Balbino Fuenmayor also didn't make the Batter's Box top 30 list, but that was more of a result of not playing any games - we really didn't have much to go off of. BA likes the soon to be 17 year old's tools noting that he's fairly polished for his age.

Ryan Patterson also fared better in BA's rankings, with BA calling him a 'hitting machine'.

On the other side of things BA didn't rank Davis Romero or Chi-hung Cheng in their top 10s.
Maybe they made the change before this year, but I like that BA lists the BA/OBP/SLG lines of the hitters in their profiles now.
Mike Green - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 12:33 PM EST (#157819) #
I wondered about BA's rating of Patterson, and checked his 2006 stats. has him hitting .279/.321/.495 at age 23 in single A and double A. has him doing much better than that.  The figures are correct, but perhaps BA had the incorrect stats. 

It is difficult to understand the preference for Patterson over Thigpen.  They are the same age.  Thigpen is a catcher, whereas Patterson is a corner outfielder.  With a substantial weight being attached to power, Patterson and Thigpen may be comparable hitters, although most would give the edge to Thigpen. 

Gerry - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 12:53 PM EST (#157820) #

Kudos to Mike Green who had Brandon Magee rated highest among the Batters Box minor league team in compiling our top 30 list.  Mike and I were the only two voters who put Magee on their lists.  Players in the low minors are very difficult to evaluate without scouting input, some succeed with tools that don't play at higher levels, others, like Magee, don't have knockout numbers but do have a lot of potential.  Blue Jay farm director Dick Scott really liked Magee in our end of year interview.  He said Magee could move quickly in 2007.  The Jays will likely start Magee in Dunedin and hope he jumps to AA before the end of the year.

I am also surprised at Patterson's rating.  Patterson has an unusual swing and struggled a little in AA and has continued to play poorly in Hawaii.  Some first full-season players fade down the stretch and need time off, hopefully that is what has happened to Ryan.

Ryan Day - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 12:59 PM EST (#157821) #

 I'm surprised to see Patterson that high, and ahead of Thigpen. He really struggled at AA, and his strikezone judgment is getting worse.

 On the other hand, BA does like prospects who are really good at something and show flashes of dominance, and Patterson did mash the heck out of the ball in Auburn and Dunedin. Meanwhile, Thigpen just keeps putting up good, consistent numbers at every level, never really dominating but also not losing anything. That's the one big problem with BA - they tend to proclaim stardom for players who have one hot season at A-ball, while the players at AA or AAA are seeing much more advanced pitching.


Mike Green - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 01:33 PM EST (#157822) #
Thanks, Gerry.  In fairness, there were a few names on my ballot which were quite a bit off, I realize in hindsight.  The rest of the crew made up for my errors though.  The sum of the minor league crew's efforts is, I am sure, greater than the parts.

Incidentally, we rated Kyle Yates at the 12th best prospect in the system before his outstanding AFL effort. He threw five shutout innings in his last game, and has been easily the best pitcher in the AFL.  He might very well have made our top 10 list if votes were taken now.

Wildrose - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 01:36 PM EST (#157823) #
How would Canon rate after his break out in the A.F.L.? Is the sample size too small to change his ratings?

Any background  on these late round high bonus guys mentioned in the B.A. story?

Ron - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 01:49 PM EST (#157825) #
I see Rosario on the Top 10 list but not McGowan. I'm interested to hear if BA thinks McGowan still might develop into a 1A starting pitcher JP thinks he can become.
Mike Green - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 01:55 PM EST (#157826) #
The next position player up from Cannon was Patterson.  With their fall league performances, I am not sure that we would continue to rate Patterson ahead of Cannon.  Cannon is 18 months older, slower and plays first base instead of left field, but is, I think, substantially ahead with the bat. 
Ryan Day - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 02:02 PM EST (#157827) #
Might McGowan no longer be eligible for BA's list? He's pitched 72 innings over the past two years.
Pistol - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 02:33 PM EST (#157829) #

For what it's worth they would have had Brandon League 4th if he was eligible.

Mike Green - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 03:00 PM EST (#157830) #
League behind Ricky Romero?  Really?

Romero perhaps has a higher ceiling than League on the basis that he has a higher chance of being a starter in the long run.  But, the chances of League being a very good major league pitcher are much, much higher than Ricky Romero's because he has been completely healthy and he has a record of success at both triple A and the majors.  The difference between 80-100 high leverage innings and 180-200 medium leverage innings is not that huge.

Pistol - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 03:25 PM EST (#157832) #
I thought I was higher on Romero than most, but the BA scouting report on Romero was pretty optimistic.  They attributed Romero's strong last few outings to a mechanical adjustment and project him in the Jays rotation in 2008.

But if I was offered Brandon League in a hypothetical trade for Ricky Romero I'd make it. 

Gerry - Monday, November 13 2006 @ 09:16 PM EST (#157848) #

I just re-read the BA prospect chat.  There were not a lot of surprises in the chat.  Matt Eddy seems to like Kyle Yates a lot and thinks he could be a good bullpen pitcher, and soon.  Ryan Klosterman ranks around #15 and Eric Fowler still rates highly despite an up and down 2006 season.  The news on Chi-Hung Cheng looks good, he should be good for spring training.  Graham Godfrey, who didn't pitch in 2006, ranks higher than Kyle Ginley and Chase Lirette.  There should be some interesting pitching in Dunedin and Lansing next season.

With the exception of Brandon Magee (and Balbino Fuenmayor) it sounds like BA's list and Batters Box list are fairly comparable.

Baseball America Top 30 Prospects | 17 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.