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Everyone all recovered from a night of New Year's revelry? Good -- then let's look to the (immediate) future and fill a thread with our predictions about the 2007 baseball season. (Hey,. every newspaper columnist in every paper in the free world is writing this story today. Why not us?)

Just a few minor "rules" ....

  1. Be specific. No generic "Jays win the series, baby!" posts, nor any "Ryan will save some important games" no-brainers. The obvious ones -- "Johan Santana will be really good" need to give way to the daringly speciifc "Santana will be baseball's first 30-game winner in 37 years" sorts.
  2. Keep them baseball-related. No "Argos in '07!" posts -- hey, these don't even have to be Toronto-specific. You want to make a prediction about Chone Figgins or the Chicago Cubs or the Toledo Mud Hens? Step right up!
  3. Be serious -- or, well, don't. The aforementioned newspaper columnists range from the extremely serious to the tongue-in-cheek wags. The only bad predictions are those made where the reader can't tell if the writer is being serious or waggish. If you're not sure you're being clear about the fact that your prediction is a gag, just be sure to mention Dave Lemanczyk -- then we'll all know.
  4. That is all -- predict away! What's gonn a happen in 2007? Aaron Hill, MVP? Kaz Matsuzaka, 20-game loser? Cleveland Indians, World Champions? (Hey, it happened for Boston and Chicago!) Dave Lemanczyk, Hall of Fame inductee?

Whatchagot, Bauxites?

Predictions '07 | 26 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mick Doherty - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 02:12 PM EST (#161457) #
i make this prediction every year (as readers of this site will know), so meet your 2007 World Champions ... the Cincinnati Reds! An 89-73 Wild Card winner, the Reds will go on to knock off the Giants, Dodgers and Yankees in a post-season like any unseen in Ohio since 1990.

Okay, not really. But if Dave Lemanczyk comes out of retirement to anchor their rotation, it could happen.

HippyGilmore - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 02:49 PM EST (#161458) #

Vernon Wells - MVP. I am thinking 37 home runs, 138 RBIs, a career high in walks and an OPS around .950.

Aaron Hill - Batting Champion with a .357 average

Jason Schmidt - Will be much more valuable than Barry Zito

The Seattle Mariners - AL West Champs.

Dice K - Unfortunately, he's gonna be awesome and a Jay Killer. 20 wins, 3.50 ERA, 230 Ks in 210 IP.

Roger Clemens - Please god don't come back to the AL East. Please Please God.

Barry Zito - Will retire and forfeit his $126-million dollar contract to join John Mayer as a backup guitarist and vocalist. "The John Mayer Experience Featuring Barry Zito" will be awesome.

Bruce Dickinson - Will finally accept my invitation to come play a set at my birthday party. We will become best friends.

Dave Rutt - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 05:00 PM EST (#161459) #
How can the Reds knock off both the Giants and Dodgers if they're the wild card? ;)

My predictions
1) NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
2) NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
3) NL Wild Card: New York Mets
4) AL Central: Cleveland Indians
5) AL East: New York Yankees
6) AL Wild Card: Detroit Tigers
7) AL West: Los Angeles Angels

Haven't made up my mind on the NL west yet.
david wang - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 05:41 PM EST (#161460) #
"How can the Reds knock off both the Giants and Dodgers if they're the wild card?"

If the Reds can make they playoffs, let them beat whoever they want.

I think the Jays will finish in 2nd again and 1-3 in the east will be seperated by 5 wins.
Mark - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 05:44 PM EST (#161461) #
Is that thee Bruce Dickenson?

Paplebon will be closing for the Sox by May 15th and League will be starting for the Jays by July 15th. Both will excel in their respective spots in 2007 and for years to come.

Dave Rutt - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 06:56 PM EST (#161462) #
david wang: my point is, the Giants and Dodgers can't both make the playoffs if the Reds are the wild card....
VBF - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 08:05 PM EST (#161463) #

-For nearly two months, the Jays who opted not to overpay for a mediocre starter through trades, put out a rotation of Doc, AJ, Chacin, Marcum and Towers, who earned a spot on the team by posting a 2.70 ERA in five startes in March.

-The good pitching by Towers would not carry through to the season as he would then post a 6.80 ERA in April despite receiving little run support and not as bad as everyone would think he would be. Somebody on da box will address that Towers was actually pitching decently, but that will not be enough as the rest of Blue Jays Land will call for his head.

-Frank Thomas will injure himself on April 19th at home against Boston upon tripping on the lip of the astroturf and the dirt cut outs around first base. Not a terrible loss for the Jays, as he was hitting .190/.310/.460  at this point. He will be out for 17 days, while Matt Stairs boasts a line of .360/.421/.566 in that stretch. Nevertheless, Thomas will re-emerge after his stint on the DL, posting a ,890 OPS for the remainder of the season.

-On May 21st, after getting swept by the Phillies the Jays will trade batting title contender, Reed Johnson and Davis Romero for Jake Westbrook. Shapiro's hand was forced to bring in a outfielder, after Grady Sizemore was injured and Shin Soo Choo was outrighted to AAA. The Indians are 7 games back of the Tigers at this stage and Westbrook is a free agent at the end of the season.

-Surprisingly enough, AJ Burnett and Doc Halladay will each post 30 starts.

-A healthy Doc and AJ accompanied by a solid Jake Westbrook will be significantly better than the 2006 Jays rotation, despite Chacin and Marcum being slightly below average.

-The Jays will win 93 games. I don't know if that will be good enough to win the AL East, but on that last weekend at home against Tampa Bay, a sweep will occur. I can't determine who will the sweepee.

Rob - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 09:15 PM EST (#161464) #
Kaz Matsuzaka, 20-game loser?

That's about as likely as Daisuke Matsui hitting 20 homers.
Mylegacy - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 09:49 PM EST (#161465) #

Assuming Rios stays....

We've lost Cat, Hilly, Hinske, Molina... we've gained Big Frank.

SO... how big an impact will a Johnson, Rios, Wells, Thomas, Glaus, Overbay VERY POWERFUL front six have over...
a Johnson, Rios, Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand OK front six?

I have a feeling that our 07 front six may be one of the best front sixes in baseball. We keep talking about the pitching BUT a healthy Thomas in the midst of these guys is a a TRULY DOMINANT force. I  wonder how many extra games we would have won in 06 with our new line-up? How many extra wins will this POWER SIX give us? I think we're not considering this enough.

ALSO, I think our pitching, EVEN WITHOUT A NEW GUY, will win at least 7 more games this year, based mostly on Burnett and Chacin picking up Lillys 15 wins, Roy getting 4 more wins now that his forearm strain is fixed, AND Marcum getting 10 wins in the 19 starts in which Towers and Taubenheim picked up 3 wins.

SO, what does this all mean? It means 97+ wins and a playoff invite!

HippyGilmore - Monday, January 01 2007 @ 10:41 PM EST (#161466) #

How many extra wins will this POWER SIX give us? I think we're not considering this enough.

That's not to mention the fact that our 7 and 8 hitters, Hill and Zaun, are hardly scrubs with the bat and will both get on base plenty. Easiest prediction of all: The Jays will score a bunch of runs.

GrrBear - Tuesday, January 02 2007 @ 01:15 AM EST (#161467) #
AL East:
Yankees - 93-69
Blue Jays - 92-70
Red Sox - 90-72
Devil Rays - 78-84
Orioles - 60-102

AL Central:
Indians - 91-71
Tigers - 86-76
White Sox - 79-83
Twins - 78-84
Royals - 64-98

AL West:
Rangers - 88-74
Athletics - 84-78
Angels - 78-84
Mariners - 70-92

Obviously those predicted W-L records came right out of my butt, but the divisional rankings reflect my gut feelings.  I think the Indians will be this year's Cinderella story (much like the Tigers last year and the White Sox in '05), and the Rangers will finally get back to the postseason.  The Jays will snag the wild card spot in an exciting September finish that sees New York, Boston, and Toronto fight it out right to the last few days of the season.

I still think it will be Reed Johnson, and not Alex Rios, that gets dealt along with whatever other tradeable assets the Jays have, but the return will be an unspectacular innings-eater that stays healthy and provides stability to the rotation.  We'll actually get thirty starts out of A.J. Burnett, and Shaun Marcum takes another step forward to become the reliable fourth starter that Towers was two years ago.  Doc gets his twenty wins, but on the last game of the season, and he finishes third in Cy Young voting to Santana and C.C. Sabathia.  B.J. will get 40+ saves, and Brandon League sparks memories of Duane Ward.

The Big Hurt will play 125 games, hit 30 home runs, walk 90 times, and fade significantly in the second half, which is okay, because in the minors throughout the summer, Travis Snider whacks the snot out of the ball, gets called up in September, and picks up the slack by hitting .300 with a half-dozen home runs.   Vernon will be Vernon, although we'll get the B+ version, not the A version of 2006, and Lyle Overbay will trade in a few of those doubles for home runs.  Glaus spends half the season on the DL, which makes everybody miss Eric Hinske until J.P. goes out and gets him.  Aaron Hill continues to mature and settle in nicely at second base, and after a strong Spring Training, Russ Adams gets another kick at the shortstop can... which doesn't work out.  So in May, the Jays trade Adams, Josh Banks, and Dustin McGowan to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy - an exchange of disappointments, if you will - which does work out for both teams.  Alex Rios falls off a little bit from 2006, but no one complains about a .290/.350/.480 line.  With the trade of Reed, Adam Lind gets to start in left field most of the time, and he hits a bit below league average for a left fielder.  Finally, at the end of Spring Training, they play an April Fool's prank on Gregg Zaun by faking an announcement that the Jays signed a new everyday catcher.  The prank is exposed as Zaun is trying to bash down Gibbons' office door with a baseball bat, and after he settles down, Gregg platoons nicely with Jason Phillips, providing league-average hitting.

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL ROY: that Matsuzaka guy
3RunHomer - Tuesday, January 02 2007 @ 08:01 AM EST (#161469) #
Why make predictions for 2007 without reviewing the predictions from 2006? Who did the best? What happened to that thread anyway?
zeppelinkm - Tuesday, January 02 2007 @ 10:57 AM EST (#161470) #
I predict that the trio of Marcum/Towers/Jannsen pitches to the tune of 180 innings and somewhere in the mid 5's in ERA out of the # 5 spot.

I predict that one of McGowan/Romero/Marcum/Towers/Jannsen steps up big time and pitches to the tune of a low 4 ERA while snagging the # 4 starter spot while the # 5 shuffle continues with. This stepper upper will give the Jays 160 innings of quality work out of the # 4 spot. It will probably be McGowan. This is his last kick at the can, and he will kick that can, hard, and make everyone remember why we've been excited about him for what feels like forever now.

Until this break through happens and the rotation is stablized, the Jays hang around and compete thanks to their big bats and Doc and AJ winning 70% of their starts. This breakthrough comes just a few days after Reeders heartbreaking injury (read on).

With pitching again overpriced at the trading deadline, Riccardi snags a league average shortshop who is league average because he's a slighty above average hitter and a slightly below defender. This slightly above average hitter gives the Jays one of the most complete 1 - 9 lineups in recent history (excluding teams named the Yankees).

Aaron Hill will hit .310/.360 ... i'm not sure about his power. It's going to come, but this might be the transition year. Let's say .415

Alex Rios will steal 20 bases this year, hit 40 doubles, and 25 home runs.

I agree with the notion that Lyle wil hit less doubles and some more home runs.

Chacin will continue to dance and flirt with trouble, but some how defy the odds again. He goes 13 - 12 with a 4.99 ERA and 205 innings, while striking out 125. He improves his HR rate, but everything else is about what you'd expect.

Injuries... There are going to happen some where in here, to somebody. But they seem so random (unless we're talking about JD Drew or Corey Koskie) - Alex Rios anyone? This year, however, the Jays dodge a bullet as it's never Doc or AJ who is injured (at least not to the point of missing more then 1 start at any given time), and the injures to their pitchers will happen amongst the guys filling the 3 - 5 spots. The only major positional injury will be Reed Johnson. He will break his hand on a headfirst slide into home plate after hustling from 1st base on a bunt single to score the game winning run in extra innings in a game in early June. The Jays introduce Adam Lind to the world once again, and he never sees another game in the minors. The Jays use Reeders inspirational hustle and start their "run".

 I can't tell if it's just me being overly optimistic, but I think AJ will start at least 28 games. I think he's changed his approach to pitching, I really do. I think it's the Doc influence. I really do! The true impact of Doc Halladay cannot be measured with mere numbers. His mentoring contributes to AJ rise to prominence to help the Jays form as good a 1-2 punch there is.

Jays miss the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion, as the Yankees creep up and have a September for the record books after acquiring Clemans at the trade deadline and take the wildcard spot out from under their nose. The Red Sox ride a wave of 5 starting pitchers staying healthy, Beckett improving, to a 100 win season and 1st place.  However, the Jays run prompts another payroll injection from our good man, Ted Rogers, and just wait, till next year.....

Alex Obal - Tuesday, January 02 2007 @ 11:57 AM EST (#161471) #
Shaun Marcum. 15-game winner. Book it.
AWeb - Tuesday, January 02 2007 @ 12:59 PM EST (#161472) #
Why make predictions for 2007 without reviewing the predictions from 2006? Who did the best? What happened to that thread anyway?   If you are referring to "THE CONTEST", it has slipped down the memory hole the last two years in terms of results, or at least I don't recall seeing the 2005 results ever. I miss a day or two now and then though. If no one on da' Box roster has the time to tabulate the results, perhaps I should just volunteer to do it myself.     My prediction: NL West, Colorado Rockies win it, led by another Canadian candidate for a major award, Jeff Francis, Cy Young 2007.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 02 2007 @ 01:11 PM EST (#161473) #

We see the first division winner sub-500 this season, and it comes out of the AL Central, much to everyone's surprise.  The AL East and West both see 4 teams at 500 or better with just Tampa Bay being unable to turn the trick as Baltimore shocks everyone with a few career years and sneaking into the AL East race. 

Casey Janssen becomes the first young gun to really make it, ERA sub-4 and 15 wins.  Chacin keeps his tightrope walking going with an ERA near 5 but twice as many wins as losses.  AJ is hurt for a month, Roy has a freak injury but the Jays still crack 500 and barely stay ahead of Baltimore and Boston as Boston has injury issues and Daisuke is not as good as hoped (ERA of 5 in the end after a great start in April).

Tom Cheek doesn't make the HOF again, nor does Bert Blyleven.  Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken (1 vote short of 100%), and Jim Rice do get in though, while McGwire gets 25%.

The playoffs and WS are fun as always with Cleveland winning it all after sneaking in via the AL Central being the most even division in baseball with 4 teams that are between 77 and 80 wins while poor KC stays below 70 but doesn't lose 100.  Cleveland beats Milwaukee as we see the first AL only WS.  OK, Milwaukee is NL now but they started as an AL team.

earlweaverfan - Tuesday, January 02 2007 @ 07:34 PM EST (#161477) #
The Jays' greatest strength will turn out to be (big surprise to many) their starting pitching, including numbers 3-5.  How so?  At least two of the following three will greatly surprise on the upside - Marcum, McGowan, Chacin (and if one of them fails to impress by the close of spring training, League will step up.)  What does this mean?  Halladay wins 20, Burnett 18, and the last three will average 14 apiece.  That totals 80 wins before we get to the pen.

The greatest disappointment will be the pen, as Ryan will only be fine, not superb, Frasor will have his ups and downs, and if League moves up to the starting roster (my fondest hope), then Frasor will be counted on as the set-up man.  Accardo will not impress, Downs will be Downs, and many Syracuse Chiefs (D. Romero, Janssen, Taubenheim, Winken, Blinken and Nod) may try out for the remaining long and middle relief slots.  The best news for the pen is that they will be called upon to pitch many fewer innings, partly because of stronger starting pitching than last year, and partly because when, e.g., Marcum is leading by 8-2 after the first three innings, he will be allowed to pitch deeper into the game, even when he starts to fade.  The pen will win 17 games, although eight of those will come because they blew a lead and the batters picked them up.

Batting will be very powerful, with Rios rising to 30 HR and 900+ OPS, Johnson finally putting to rest all the speculation that 2006 was just a career year or worse, a fluke, and Wells being ten percent better on most dimensions (HR, RBIs, OPS).  Overbay will quietly step up to the next level (more HRs and more doubles), Hill will bat .330 with a 15% increase in SLG, and Thomas will hit 40 HR and 125 RBIs, although 60% of that will be at home.  Glaus will get injured trying to turn a single into a double, but will still play long enough to  hit 30HR and 100 RBIs.  Zaun will fall back signficantly and Phillips will not make any impact on offense.  Clayton will just be a little better than MacDonald, but both will be horrible.

Defense will be a truly mixed bag - great in the outfield, strong at the bags (except when the injured Glaus is not playing 3rd), decent at shortstop, and at catcher, pretty weak.  We will start watching Thigpen closely in hopes he can rise to the bigs faster than we thought.

The Jays will keep Thigpen, Lind and Adams knock, knock, knocking on heaven's door, no matter how well they play, and the Jays will find an okay outfielder to back up Reed, Rios and Wells in the outfield while Lind hones his craft.

97 wins for the Jays will be just enough to edge ahead of Boston, but to trail the Yankees by 6 games.  Damn Yankees.  At a guess, it will be enough to win the wild card, in part because Kansas City and Cleveland will both step up in the Central Division and the remaining contenders will win fewer games.

All of the above is easy to predict (with unerring accuracy) but as for post-season predictions, that's a mug's game - not even Dave Lemancyzk would know for sure.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, January 04 2007 @ 10:29 AM EST (#161520) #

Jaret Wright ends up being the Ace ofthe Orioles staff.

IWould this be really good news or really bad news for the O's?

Mike Green - Thursday, January 04 2007 @ 07:52 PM EST (#161543) #
Orlando Hudson voted NL MVP for the World Series champion Diamondbacks, who win 95 games.
Predictions '07 | 26 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.