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Of course, it became apparent to me very quickly that they had no extraordinary talent at all. They have fought their way out of a number of tight corners by a simple combination of sheer luck and J.J. Putz. They are mediocre to the last degree, though as obnoxious and self-satisfied as were the White Sox before them. The Jays will do their utmost to have them thrown out of the pennant race, where I believe they scarcely belong...

Yeah, I'm a closeted Mariners admirer, deep undercover. I love an underdog story. Success that defies all reason is fun to watch, and it doesn't get much more reason-defying than the 2007 Seattle Mariners, 14 games above .500 in late July.

Miguel Batista
will be the most formidable starter the Jays' bats see this series. Revenge is at hand; he defeated Roy Halladay a couple of weeks ago, and that's a no-no. Like last time, there will be lots of two-seamers and cutters, with the odd breaking ball, and the odder change and splitter mixed in, plus any or all of El Artista's 62 other pitches (rumored recent additions: knucklefosh, palmscrew, Vulcan curveball...), if we're lucky. Batista's last start was a solid win over Kenny Rogers and the Tigers, in which he went 6 innings allowing one run. Curiously, Batista has pitched just as successfully on the road as he has at home - 4.21 ERA versus 4.53.

Batista against Jesse Litsch is the toughest matchup of the weekend for the home team. However, Litsch seems to fare pretty well against hack-happy right-leaning lineups at the Dome, and I heard Jesse's girls are quite excited about the prospect of reprising their part from Litsch's near complete game against the O's. Moreover, every time I doubt him in any way the flat-hatted sonofaLitsch goes out there and pitches his guts out and makes me look like the idiot I am. And I do think tonight's game is pretty clearly the biggest obstacle between the Jays and a season-saving sweep.

Jeff Weaver faces Josh Towers Saturday in an intriguing clash of righthanders. Towers, as we're all painfully aware, has great K/BB numbers, a bad homer rate compounded by his slight flyball tendencies, mediocre hit luck and an awful strand rate. Weaver knows the feeling. He has decent K/BB numbers, a good homer rate despite his big flyball tendencies (thank you Safeco Field), horrendous hit luck and an awful strand rate. The similarities are clear. The chart was meant for matchups like this! Weaver's a four-pitch pitcher with a good two-seamer, a Frisbee slider and a tendency to go sidearm when he needs to make a righty swing and miss. Matt Stairs is 5-11 with a homer and two walks off Weaver. He'll probably give Reed a day off tomorrow. Troy Glaus is 2-31 with four walks and 10 strikeouts. If he sits this one out again, I'll...

Sunday, it's a sight for sore righty bats: Horacio Ramirez. He faces Roy Halladay in what appears to be the biggest mismatch since roughly sometime around the time Doc faced Runelvys Hernandez last year. (Sorry.) The M's acquired Ramirez from the Braves in exchange for Rafael Soriano, a move I still haven't exactly figured out. Soriano is awesome, and although he's a flyball pitcher, that just means Safeco is a happy place for him and he should have more value to the Mariners than to just about any other team in baseball. Ramirez has shown clear groundball tendencies over his career, but although he throws pretty hard, his strikeout and walk numbers are thoroughly unimpressive. I can understand trading a young bullpen arm in this pitching-starved baseball environment when you have prospects you trust to fill the shoes of the departed, but Soriano seems like a massive overpayment for Ramirez.

That said, Ramirez is 5-2 in his first tour of the AL. He's doing it with more walks than strikeouts and a 5.89 ERA, but until he starts losing it's hard to be overly critical. He throws in the low 90s with the fastball and sometimes cuts it. He also has a slider, change and occasional curveball. He is 'crafty.' He lives down and away, which probably explains the groundball tendencies. Against lefties he's basically a two-pitch pitcher with the fastball and slider. That's apparently all he needs: lefties are only batting .250/.265/.375, with 5 strikeouts and 1 walk. Righties are a touch more successful: .342/.413/.517, 10 strikeouts, 17 walks.

In his first start after a shoulder tendinitis-induced DL stint, Ramirez showed no ill effects. He stymied the Orioles over seven strong innings to run his home record to 5-0. (His ERA at home is 2.27; on the road, it's 13.21.) This is the Horacio the M's thought they were getting.

Seattle's bullpen is still holding up: J.J. Putz is the best in the business. He has 27 saves; he has allowed 27 baserunners, and he's stranded every single one of them except for the 3 who homered. George Sherrill is wearing the LOOGY shackles when he should really be the team's ace setup man, particularly at Safeco where his flyball tendencies are mitigated; I'd promote Eric O'Flaherty to the situational lefty role. Brandon Morrow is struggling and has ceded some eighth-inning work to sinkerballing righty Sean Green, whose funky delivery gave the Jays fits last time. Here's David Andriesen on Green's unlikely ascent to the majors. How unlikely? The administrative staff in Green's high school in Kentucky have no idea who he is. He had a short-lived football and basketball career, and one day he discovered 10 extra mph on his fastball in Riveraesque fashion. Canuck Chris Reitsma has returned from elbow inflammation, taking Jason Davis' spot on the roster.

How is this team doing so well? No one knows. Even when you adjust for the Safeco context, the Mariners have five regular batters with below-average OPS+ and three regular starting pitchers with below-average ERA+. The M's are wildly outperforming their Pythagorean record of 47-45 and second-order record of 45-47. I mean, Ichiro and Putz can't account for that whole difference all by themselves... can they?

Raul Ibanez's right hamstring is fully healed. Ibanez likes the chemistry in Seattle. He's 35; I had absolutely no idea he'd been around that long. When presented with the laughable notion that the team needs to make a big trade just to prove to its players that it's doing all it can to win, Ibanez laughs: "I think there are times when there is a legitimate need for this or that, but we have the players right here that we need [to contend]."

Ichiro's contract was arranged in a manner that is very favorable to the Mariners. It adds up to $90 million, but $5 million of each year's salary is deferred at 5.5% interest.

The Mariners give something away at almost every home game. Next Friday is Ichiro Hydroplane Night.

New manager John McLaren is feeling peppy and optimistic in these exciting times in Seattle. He thinks the Mariners' best baseball is ahead of them, and he plans on resting their regulars (even Ichiro!) to keep them fresh for the pennant chase: "I don't want to make a sensational story about this or anything, but we want to stay strong over the course of the season. So come September, when we're fighting down the stretch, we're going to be strong and ready to roll, when hopefully other teams are tired and running out of gas at the finish line."

Kenji Johjima has caught 39.5% of basestealers this year, third-best in the majors.

Jason Ellison has appeared in 58 games but only come to bat 42 times.

Richie Sexson is below the Mendoza line. An average Sexson hit nets him two bases.

And the Mariners are a leading candidate to open the 2008 season in Japan against Daisuke and the Red Sox.

The Credit Section:
All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.

Advance Scout: Mariners, July 20-22 | 51 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Sophoric - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#171822) #
Good day for a Harry Potter reference.

I don't like games that Halladay pitches that seem to be complete mismatches.  They often seem to work out rather poorly.
Mike Green - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#171823) #
Cool Ichiro fact.  He has a reverse platoon differential over his career.  Vidro hits lefties and righties about equally.  Only Ibanez has a platoon advantage against right-handed pitching.  It's a good series to use Downs as a LOOGY once or twice and to give Tallet a rest.
Lefty - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#171825) #
As a westcoaster I'm going to have to make a confession.

I won't be to disappointed to see Seattle win this series.

Its also been a longtime since Seattle had any measure of success,  and I kind of like those guys who run the USS Mariner site.

If this speeds in the realization that Blue Jay's 2007 are toast then so much the better. Then they can play for pride, because that seems so much easier for them than a playoff spot.

Paul D - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#171826) #

Its also been a longtime since Seattle had any measure of success,  and I kind of like those guys who run the USS Mariner site.

I would argue that Seattle has had success more recently than Toronto, and I like this site, so.....

Mike Green - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#171828) #
Rany has the Kansas City Royals Harry Potter comps in BP.
AWeb - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#171829) #
There's an idea for a hall-of-names, if it hasn't been done, and in tribute to the Potter-release day tomorrow. I'm not sure if there are enough "normal" names to make up a team, but Harry Potter, Granger, Ron/Ronald, Lily (bending the spelling), Black, Baron, Tom Riddle, Arthur, Fred George (I'm looking at a list; no I don't recall all the names off the top of my head. But yes, I've read the books), etc....there's probably enough Harry's to get it done that way, if the all-Harry team hasn't been done.
paulf - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#171830) #
I have a dream where Miggy and Tony form a two-man band called Batista-Batista. Tony plays guitar but is always facing off to the side, never looking at the crowd. Miguel plays drums and always ends up wandering into strange time signatures. Their manager is toying with the idea of converting them into a Ramones cover band to force Miguel to stay with his "bread and butter" 4/4 and 2/4 offerings. Miggy protests, saying the "four-ticker" is boring and insists on "throwing the crowd a changeup".
GregJP - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#171833) #
Holy crap, Lance has a personality.  Dude, why can't you be more like this when you're actually working a game.
westcoast dude - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#171836) #
Mulliniks had some interesting insights on Cito Gaston. He prepared the batters to look for a tendency and try to see a pattern. Where are you now, Cito Gaston?
paulf - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#171837) #
 I recall reading an article a while back on Cito's renowned ability to read pitchers. If someone was tipping, Cito would find it. The money quote was this: upon trading for David Cone Cito greeted him with "Welcome to the American League. By the way, we know all your pitches".

If anyone can find it, it's a good read.

TA - Friday, July 20 2007 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#171841) #
Looks like Phillips has been released.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#171844) #
Or to put it more positively, the Jays are going to give Thigpen a real shot at catching with Zaun teaching him for a few months.  Excellent!
China fan - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 02:50 AM EDT (#171846) #

   It sounds like JP has been studying Da Box and taking his advice from us.   Getting rid of Phillips is the move that we've all been calling for.  And I agree with everyone else who says that his departure is long overdue.  But think about this:  it's also the first official proof that the Jays are writing off this season.    According to the wire-service report, the Jays are planning to give Thigpen two games a week.   You don't give such a prominent role to a rookie catcher -- especially one with defensive issues -- unless you are entering a rebuilding program.  For all of Phillips' weaknesses, I suspect he is pretty good at handling one or two of the Jays' top pitchers.  He wouldn't have survived so long if he wasn't well-liked by the Jays pitching staff.   If the Jays still had any chance at a wild card, they would have brought in Fasano to replace Phillips.  When you sacrifice a veteran for a rookie catcher in mid-season, you are basically signalling that the season is over and you have decided to go with the rookies and the youth movement.  There will be a rough period as the pitchers adjust to a totally new catcher behind the plate.  You wouldn't impose that kind of adjustment in mid-season if the team had any chance at a wild card.

   Having said that, I think there's a pretty good chance that Thigpen will outperform Phillips, both offensively and defensively.  (It would be hard for him to be worse)  But let's acknowledge that the Jays are giving up on 2007 and looking toward 2008 now.

China fan - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 03:06 AM EDT (#171847) #
    Oh, and by the way, I'm not naive, I know that the Jays have been out of the wild-card race (for all practical purposes) for the past few weeks.   So I agree with the idea of doing some rebuilding.   But in retrospect, it was the eight games with Boston and New York which were crucial to determining the timing of the Phillips move -- and other moves that are likely to come soon.  Ten days ago, Jeff Blair wrote that JP saw the Sox-Yankees games as a key test for the original lineup (with Overbay and Johnson now back from injuries).   He wanted to see how the Jays did in those eight games.  Blair predicted that, unless the Jays went 6-2 in that eight-game stretch, JP would enter the trading market.   Sure enough, the Jays failed the test, and JP has begun to make some long-overdue moves.  Phillips might be just the first of several moves to come.
timpinder - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#171849) #

Could Towers be next, then Clayton?  I hope so.  I've heard a lot about Olmedo and I'd like to get a chance to see him.  I'd also like to see Janssen moved to the rotation with Gronk getting the call, but I have a feeling that will wait until next spring.

I still don't see many trades happening.  I wish it weren't so, but I just don't see anybody taking Thomas' contract, even for a PTBN.  Burnett is hurt, Johnson isn't hitting, and Stairs seems like the only player likely to get traded, in my opinion.  I don't expect the Jays will get much for him.

timpinder - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#171851) #

In the Toronto Sun today, Bob Elliot quoted a National League scout as saying, "The Jays are telling teams they'll move (Troy Glaus)". 

Hmm.  I guess that there might be at least the possibility of big moves after all.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#171854) #

With the team's stated goal of contending over the next few years, trading one of your best two or three hitters (Glaus) dosen't make a lot of sense. You would have to get back major league ready talent with the same overall present value, or at the very least believe that with the cash saved you can get the same value through free agency or trades. I think that's a tough assignment. Or else, they're worried about an imminent decline in Glaus' production.

Of course, you have to consider the source. I'll put more credence into this when I see it coming from Blair as opposed to a bitter old hack with an agenda.

Pistol - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#171856) #
Or else, they're worried about an imminent decline in Glaus' production.

Or health.  There isn't any real reason to trade him otherwise.

I don't have a lot of faith in either, but his comps at BR are pretty impressive.
westcoast dude - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#171857) #

...doesn't make a lot of sense.

Bring me the head of JP Ricciardi. His handling of Curtis Thigpen this spring made no sense. I held my breath when he was actively shopping Rios and now he's trying to cover his tracks. The bloated Wells contract last fall staggered us all, even VBF.  JP has clearly risen to his level of incompetance, but until Godfrey shows some backbone and pulls the pin, this train wreck will just snowball.

jeff mcl - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#171858) #
Olmedo has been hot of late and is now hitting .292/.351, which I think should earn him a promtion/2-month audtion given what we've been trotting out at SS this season.  As right as the decision to dump Phillips was, I'd take more more satisfaction with the release of Clayton and the injection of some new blood in the middle IF.
Frank Markotich - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#171863) #

Westcoat Dude, I have to say I don't follow you here.

What are you referring to as far as the handling of Thigpen last spring? He spent most of 2006 at Double A and it is logical to start him at Triple A this year and play every day rather than be a backup to Zaun.

What is your evidence that he was actively shopping Rios? There were some rumours, but the only times I ever heard Ricciardi speak directly on the subject, he specifically said he wasn't trading Rios. And he didn't. So you're blaming him, not for something he did, but for something you think he wanted to do.

The Wells contract was at the new market value for someone of his accomplishments and age. Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones will tell us what the CF market is this winter. Of course, there is no denying Wells has not performed to expectations in this, the first year of his new deal.



Chuck - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#171864) #

The Wells contract was at the new market value for someone of his accomplishments and age.

Frank, I agree with most everything you said (as I often do), but I think some clarification is required here. Wells' contract was indeed the new market value, but for his 2006 accomplishments and not necessarily his career accomplishments (with its highs and lows). Ricciardi was rolling the dice that the 2006 version of Wells represented his new level of ability. With his history of spikes and troughs, there was every reason to be nervous about the new Wells contract, as many of us were.

Were Wells not signed to the extension, and if Wells' 2007 doesn't pick up, what kind of FA contract would Ricciardi be offering him? I'm not sure that we'd be looking at nine figures.

As for Andruw Jones, what a bad time to go into the tank (and conversely, what a good time for Hunter to play over his head). Unless Jones is blown away by a huge offer, he might be best served signing a one-year deal and re-establishing his value.

westcoast dude - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#171865) #

Frank, thanks for your reply. Let's turn the klieg lights on this and see if we can cast away the shadows and come to some mutually satisfactory resolution. Regarding Wells, after the contract was announced, the Photo of the Day was, of course, Vernon. Nobody said a word. Nobody, until VBF, rightly, I believe felt it incumbent upon himself to respond, with tact and dignity, as I recall. Perhaps there was one snide comment about Vernon's size, which I brushed off, but he had a point. I'm delighted Curtis Thigpen is about to catch twice a week. My impression was, last month, he was about to learn second base, and it seems to me that was JP's idea. Was it somebody else's idea? Who agreed with it? I propose a poll on the Rios trade rumours. How many people agree with me and how many people agree with you.

I'm hoping Josh can stand tall on the mound with the winds of change swirling about him. He has nothing to be ashamed of coming out of Yankee Stadium as he did. He lost but he didn't get beat.

timpinder - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#171866) #

"With the team's stated goal of contending over the next few years, trading one of your best two or three hitters (Glaus) doesn't make a lot of sense".


Ricciardi has indeed stated that this team is built to win from now until 2010, inclusive.  That leaves 2008, 2009, 2010.  That's exactly why, in my opinion, it makes perfect sense to trade Glaus in the right deal.  Keeping Glaus gives you a great hitter, although an injury prone one, for 2008 only.  The Jays have nobody in their system right now that will be ready to play a solid Major League 3B by 2009 or 2010.  If the Jays were to trade Glaus for, say, LaRoche, they'd have a couple of months left to let him play every game and develop and they'd probably have a good 3B for 2008, 2009, 2010 and in fact until 2013.  There would probably be a decline in production from 3B for 2008, but they'd have their third baseman for 2009 and 2010 at less than half a million dollars per year.  The other advantage is that the money saved could possibly go towards signing a SS or picking up salary in a trade for a SS.

That's just my opinion, but that's why I wouldn't have a problem trading Glaus for a Major League ready 3B or SS.

Squiggy - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#171869) #
Ricciardi has indeed stated that this team is built to win from now until 2010, inclusive.

i know he has said this, and so have many others. But looking at this year, I just don't have any confidence that this is the case. This looks like a thoroughly .500 team going forward. Sure, there have been injuries this year but they have been offset by unexpectedly excellent performances from the likes of several young pitchers and Matt Stairs. Would BJ, AJ, League, Reed etc., healthy all season have allowed the current team to hang with the Red Sox, Angels Indians and Tigers? That seems like a huge stretch. The AL is a tough league, and it seems to me that the Jays just don't have the horses, period.

Which is just a long way of saying, go ahead and trade Glaus if you can get some young talent back. This team is not as close to contending as JP says it is. Sorry for the brief rant.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#171870) #
I applaud Gibbons for this decision to leave Downs in to face the lefty. Kudos to him for not falling to slave to the "closer".
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#171871) #
How does one know that an opinion of his right? When Mike Wilner disagrees with it!

There should be no notion of needing to go to a closer to begin the 9th inning. Sometime a situation dictates that you try and get 4+ outs from your closer, and sometimes it says you only need him for 2. An example? When the hitter is 0 for 9 versus Downs and 2 for 4 against Accardo. This notion that the closer has to start the 9th is absurd, and seems to fall in line with the theory of "allowing your pitcher a chance to win". Teams win games, and the job of the manager is to put the team in the best scenario to do so. I do not believe that taking away one batter from Accardo will subsequently affect his performance and somehow send a message that there is a lack of confidence in him. The kid is happy to be where he is, seeing as he entered spring training with it being extremely likely that he would start in AAA.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#171879) #

I have no objection to trading Glaus if the deal is right. I have no objection to trading anybody if the deal is right. (I cheer for the laundry).

If you trade Glaus you take a large hit in offensive production (reasonable health assumed of course, which is admittedly a potential concern). To trade Glaus now, I think you have to have already laid the groundwork for another deal such that the SS or pitching issues are addressed at the same time and the team is stronger or just as strong but younger as a result. I would be nervous about making a Glaus trade now and then wondering what to do next.


greenfrog - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#171880) #
I'm guessing there is a market for Glaus, but it will be hard to get premium talent in return. It reminds me a bit of the Abreu deal--if you want the other team to take on the player's financial obligations, you aren't going to get much in return. Maybe a B prospect or two.
Alex Obal - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#171881) #
Tomorrow's pitching matchup HAS CHANGED! Horacio has been pushed back one day so that he may face a less lefty-unfriendly lineup in Texas. This means that tomorrow, we will bear witness to:

The Tale of the Tape

I mean... wow. I was all excited about Marcum-Johan on Monday and then the baseball gods drop this bombshell.
timpinder - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#171882) #




I think Glaus' salary is a bargain.  He's making $11.5 million this year and I believe it will be about $12 million next year.  All three teams rumoured to be interested in Glaus have the SS/3B prospects the Jays would want in return, and two of the three teams should have no trouble taking on his salary (Dodgers and Angels).  

I would love to see Glaus net Laroche, even if the Jays had to throw in somebody else.  Laroche has shown he has power (72 homeruns in three seasons in the minors from age 21 to 23), he has a relatively low strikeout rate and takes lots of walks and gets on base.  Furthermore, he is a recently converted SS and is decent defensively and he shouldn't be as rickety as Glaus.  I honestly believe the Jays would be a better team in the long run, maybe not 2008, but certainly 2009 and beyond. 

Craig B - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#171884) #
Alex, I was jealous enough about not being able to go, but The King versus Doc?  Holy moly, I bet you'll enjoy these tickets.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#171885) #
Timpinder: Glaus will make $12.75M in 2008. He has a player option for $11.25M in 2009. That's potentially $24M over two years for a creaky 3B who might play 100-120 games a year over that span (not to mention his remaining salary in 2007).

The Dodgers and Angels might be able to afford him, but I still think the analogy with Abreu holds (like the potential suitors for Glaus, the Yankees are deep-pocketed, but the Abreu trade was still basically a salary dump). My guess is that opposing GMs will make their pitches for Glaus on that basis. IMO, though, the only way trading Glaus makes sense is if JP can acquire some genuine talent in return. Almost all the Jays' positional prospects are several years away; we can't afford to give away a bat like Glaus's for filler.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#171886) #
Timpinder: Glaus will make $12.75M in 2008. He has a player option for $11.25M in 2009. That's potentially $24M over two years for a creaky 3B who might play 100-120 games a year over that span (not to mention his remaining salary in 2007).

The Dodgers and Angels might be able to afford him, but I still think the analogy with Abreu holds (like the potential suitors for Glaus, the Yankees are deep-pocketed, but the Abreu trade was still basically a salary dump). My guess is that opposing GMs will make their pitches for Glaus on that basis. IMO, though, the only way trading Glaus makes sense is if JP can acquire some genuine talent in return. Almost all the Jays' positional prospects are several years away; we can't afford to give away a bat like Glaus's for filler.

Ryan Day - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#171887) #
That's potentially $24M over two years for a creaky 3B who might play 100-120 games a year over that span

He might just play that much, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion. He's on pace (for what that's worth) to play 120 games this year, but it's not a foregone conclusion he'll hit the DL again - he played 24 games in May and June, and 13 so far this month. Last year he played 153. In 2005 he played in 149. The only significant time he's missed in his career has been due to a shoulder injury which, as far as I know, hasn't reoccurred. And on top of that, he'll only turn 31 on August 3rd.

I agree that he needs a few more days off than some players, and I'd like to see him play a bit of DH and 1st now and then. But it seems like everyone's ready to lump him in with the Shannon Stewarts of the world when the reality is that he's been a pretty durable player.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 21 2007 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#171888) #
But it seems like everyone's ready to lump him in with the Shannon Stewarts of the world when the reality is that he's been a pretty durable player.

It's true that Glaus is a gamer. He toughed out near-full seasons in 2004 and 2005, despite knee and shoulder problems. And he's hitting well this year (possibly because he's getting more rest than usual). But he was often hurt even in '04 and '05, and he missed considerable time in 2002 and 2003 (when he played 91 and 58 games, respectively). And he's missed a fair bit of time in 2007. So- he's not your typical 31-year-old. He's got persistent injury issues. At times, he's been downright hobbled. He might hold up for 140 games a year over the next two years. On the other hand, he might play 80-100 games. My guess is he's good for about 100-120 games at 3B.

Even if he only plays two-thirds of a season, I think he's valuable. But I don't think teams are likely to give up an A prospect and pay Glaus $24M over two years, given the risk of injury and declining performance. On the other hand, JP might be able to put together a package (say, by adding a pitcher) that would net a bigger return.
timpinder - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#171890) #

There's an article in the Pittsburg Post-Gazette this morning that indicates the Jays are interested in Jack Wilson.

Ugh.  Not the SS solution I was hoping for.

Dave Till - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#171891) #
I don't see the Jays trading Glaus. He's still a good player, the club doesn't have anybody else who can play third, and they're not likely to get much in value for him. I don't think the Jays need to dump salary (especially since the Canadian dollar is rising like crazy).

Glad to see Thigpen up - let's see whether he can catch in the big leagues.

Frank Markotich - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#171892) #

With all the glowing talk about Laroche, I'm starting to wonder why the Dodgers would trade him for Glaus.

Wilson isn't my idea of a perfect solution, but he's better than the current in-house options, and the Pirates seemingly would like to dump him so the acquisition cost shouldn't be steep. 

Olmedo perhaps? His career minor league line looks a lot like Wilson's major league career line. He's doing all right so far this year I suppose. Wilson is excellent defensively. Frankly I don't know anything about Olmedo's defense.

So who's available in trade or upcoming free agency that would be a better solution to the SS hole?

ramone - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#171893) #

Well it seems like JP is looking at aquiring Wilson, the only problem is that the writer of the Pittsburgh Post believes that JP is even willing to "give up major league talent" for Wilson.  Hopefully that is pure speculation on the writer's part.

AWeb - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#171894) #
A scary thought : Jack Wilson's #2 comp at age 28 is none other than Royce Clayton. On that note, I would trade "major league talent"  Royce Clayton for Wilson, just hoping to improve defense slightly. It could be a "challenge" trade; both players certainly present challenges, and Wilson might still have a good few months in him.
Squiggy - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#171895) #
On that note, I would trade "major league talent" Royce Clayton for Wilson, just hoping to improve defense slightly.

I wouldn't even do that. Check out how much he is owed for the next 3 seasons:

2007: $5.25MM (about $2.4 million left

2008: $6.5MM

2009: $7.25MM

2010: $8.4MM club option with $0.6MM buyout

I know he plays great defense, but that glove better be super-duper awesome to put up with his sub-.700 OPS. At least Clayton is gone after this year. I cannot imagine committing over $14 million to Wilson for the next 2+ years. He stinks. Pittsburgh would have to eat a ton of that salary to move him, similar to the Jason Kendall to the A's trade. And even then, I can't imagine giving up very much at all for Wilson.

AWeb - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#171896) #
Ok, I forgot about that contract; I wouldn't take Wilson unless Pittsburgh is paying that money. Not much wonder Pittsburgh never makes it...they give a big contract to a 26 year old SS coming off a good year (64 XB hits doesn't scream fluke at first glance), and he immediately resumes sucking. If money was no object, I'd still trade Clayton for him, but I meant that as an insult, really. I'd also be willing to part with Clayton for nothing if I was JP.
CeeBee - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#171897) #
Please not Wilson!  At least if the Jays go for a slick fielding poor hitting shortstop he should have +speed and  not cost much. Wilson has to be one of the most overpaid players in baseball so let the Cubbies have him.
timpinder - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#171899) #


David Eckstein is the only decent SS scheduled to be free agent after this year.  He'll be 33 years old next year though.

Frank Markotich - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#171900) #

I knew Wilson made about 5 or 6 million a year. I didn't realize he was guaranteed 2 more seasons after 2007 (we'll assume the 2010 option isn't going to be picked up). Yikes.

I guess it comes down to how much the Pirates are desperate enough to kick in.


Pistol - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#171901) #
I wouldn't worry about Wilson's salary.  The Pirates are eating most of that.

The question is whether he should be the Jays SS.  At first glance you'd probably say no.  However, Wilson has a couple things going for him.  He's durable and a good/very good defender.

The other thing to consider is that there aren't a whole lot of good free agent alternatives at SS.  For that matter there aren't any that I know of.

Wilson at $2 million/year for the next couple years might be the Jays best alternative (I don't get the feeling they look at Olmedo as an option).

Squiggy - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#171902) #
Wilson at $2 million/year for the next couple years might be the Jays best alternative

I have to disagree. I would argue that the Jays already have nearly everything that Wilson can provide (for $750k salary), in a guy by the name of John McDonald. The OPS numbers over the last 3 seasons are quite similar:

Wilson 2005: .662

Wilson 2006: .686

Wilson 2007: .652

McDonald 2005: .663

McDonald 2006: .579

McDonald 2007: .602

Is Wilson significantly better in the field than Johnny Mac? I don't think so, and his offensive numbers are only a shade higher. Even at the bargain price of $2 million, it's a tough case to make. He's a grossly overpaid backup SS from what I can tell. He is 3 years younger, but that's about all I can see that distinguishes him from what we've got. This would be a lateral move, at best. If JP had to actually give up something of value, it has the potential to be worse than that.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#171903) #
The linked article from Pittsburgh suggests that Alex Rios might go the other way if the Pirates eat enough of Wilson's salary.  That surely is fantasy. Wilson at $2-$3 million per year is a little better than John McDonald at $1 million and worth something, but not much. "Getting fleeced by the Pirates is like..." sounds like the start of a joke.

Now if it were Jack Wilson, Jason Bay and cash for Alex Rios and Ray Olmedo or something, that would be a different story...

Pistol - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#171912) #
I have to disagree. I would argue that the Jays already have nearly everything that Wilson can provide (for $750k salary), in a guy by the name of John McDonald.

Well, Wilson is better at the plate, even if it is marginal.  He's also 2 years younger and as far as I've seen at least the equal of McDonald in the field.

But the big difference is durability.  When McDonald plays a lot his numbers go down (like no hits since the All Star break).  Wilson is playing 140+ games year in and year out.  McDonald's high is 105 last year, and that didn't work out so well.
ahitisahit - Sunday, July 22 2007 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#171923) #

Glaus isn't the model of consistency that everyone makes him out to be. Last year in August and September, he went over 20 games without an RBI. I would trade Glaus in a heartbeat before I would ever think of trading Rios.

Man Jesse Barfield tells it like it is. I wish he wouldn't mumble so much though.

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