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The Angels of Anaheim have the second-best record in baseball, but they're only 3 games ahead of Seattle. The Jays can do their part to help the Mariners make the playoffs by beating up on the Angels, a team against which they've won 37 of their last 54 home games. Los Angeles will send out their two weakest starting pitchers in the first two games of this series, but those two guys have a combined record of 10-1. Thursday's pitching matchup is a must-see.

Tonight, it's 26-year-old Gustavo Chacin pitchalike Joe Saunders. Saunders has a fastball around 90, a cutter, a curve, a slider and a solid changeup, and, more importantly, some powerful intangibles which Roy Halladay will be hard-pressed to match. Saunders owns a 6-0 record in his 9 starts this year to go with a 13-3 career mark. The Angels have only lost one of his 2007 starts, and they're 18-8 in his starts all-time.

He's also fared well against the Blue Jays, pitching 15 innings in 2 starts, allowing 3 runs and coming away with a 1-0 record. Unfortunately, he has not had much success against righty hitters ever. Righties are .283/.350/.440 against Saunders over his career; lefties, .223/.273/.291.

Tomorrow, it's swingman Dustin Moseley, a native of Texarkana, Arkansas. Moseley is a 25-year-old rookie righty. With Bartolo Colon injured, Moseley has been entrusted with a spot in the Angels' rotation, where he has put up '06 Casey Janssen numbers. He pitches to contact and gets a solidly above-average quantity of ground balls.

Moseley gets most of those ground balls with his two-seam fastball, which sits around 90 mph and has pretty good movement on it. He also brings a curveball in the mid-70s, a changeup and a cutter. Curiously, his splits are backwards this year, which is probably insignificant but bodes well for this Jays team. He has never faced the Jays in his career.

Thursday, it's a fascinating pitching matchup as Kelvim Escobar takes on Dustin McGowan. Watch this game. Escobar has been as overpowering as ever. Now 31 years of age, he is enjoying the best season of his career. He has been the Angels' ace. He throws in the mid-90s with his fastball and possesses a couple of vicious out pitches in his splitter and changeup. He also has a solid slider, and last time out he froze a couple of Twins hitters with Maddux-style front-door moving fastballs. (Unlike Maddux, Esco does it at 95 miles an hour.) When Escobar's command is on he's very, very tough.

Against Escobar, Gregg Zaun is 4-8 with a homer and Ray Olmedo is 1-1 with a double. Troy Glaus is 4-24 with 8 strikeouts and 2 walks; Frank Thomas is a decent 9-32 with 5 strikeouts and 3 walks. Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill want no part of this guy.

So the Angels have the second-best record in baseball. They have to win exactly 11 of their next 46 games to make the idiot who wrote their preseason preview here at Batter's Box look like a lucky idiot. Somehow I think that's a bit farfetched. I underestimated Orlando Cabrera (which I stand by) and Chone Figgins (uh, mulligan?), and forecast pitching injuries which never materialized, except for Bartolo Colon's, which probably helps this team. I also didn't see Escobar's career year coming at all.

One of the things that worried me about this team was its lack of a productive first baseman. Casey Kotchman has identified himself as the solution to that problem. He's a very Angels first baseman - he puts the ball in play a lot and hits many doubles. Kotchman has a level swing that enables him to keep a very low strikeout rate to go with his average walk rate. Guys like that are rare and valuable, especially when they're only 24 and figure to get even stingier at the plate as they gain experience. Because Kotchman is a double-play threat, I envision him as Scott Downs' target of the week.

Catcher Mike Napoli sits on the DL with a hamstring injury. He may return sometime this series. In his absence, Jeff Mathis has been the starting catcher.

The mound at Angel Stadium of Anaheim is crumbling. It's caused some damage to the Angels' pitching staff: K-Rod suffered a slight right ankle sprain over the weekend. In Saturday's game, the grounds crew actually had to come out to put more dirt on the mound in the middle of K-Rod's first batter. (There will be no such problems in Toronto - all K-Rod gets to deal with is the one franchise that's caused more trouble for him than any other over his career.)

Free-agent haul Gary Matthews feels like he's home at last in his seventh major-league organization. He's had a solid year, with a decent offensive contribution and good centerfield defense, in the first year of his shiny new contract with the Angels. He thinks Boston fans are more vicious than their New York counterparts and had a knee-on-knee collision with Kevin Youkilis last week which has forced him into a DH role for the last few days. When he's healthy again, expect him to take center and one of the other three starting outfielders to DH. Matthews is red-blooded: "I'm not crazy about DHing. You feel like you're removed from the game and all of a sudden, boom -- you're in the game. The sooner I can get back to playing center field, the better I'll feel."

And outfielder Reggie Willits is the Angels' designated pain in the ass. He works deep counts, hits ground balls and walks out of the 9-hole, and he's an excellent baserunner to go with all that. His surprising first-half success was one of the most important factors that kept the Angels ahead of the pack in the AL. Willits has absolutely no power, and the Angels like it that way - to ensure that Willits stays intensely focused on hitting grounders and liners, Mike Scioscia makes him run a lap for every batting-practice homer he hits. (Willits hasn't homered in the majors yet.)

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.


Advance Scout: Angels of Anaheim, August 14-16 | 57 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
paulf - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#173048) #
This is a fun team to watch. Speed up and down the lineup, some serious gas in the bullpen, and a five man bench! What's not to like?

Of course, as I write this they're making all kinds of mistakes on D.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#173070) #
Let me just point out that I love JMac, this isn't an anti-Johnny post. Nor do I think replacing him is a priority. That being said,    I think most of us would agree that we would be more comfortable with him as the backup infielder, spelling Hill once a week, Troy twice, and the SS once. The talent pool amongst SS FAs is extremely shallow, which got me thinking about trades. I landed upon Atlanta, which has YEscobar having a nice welcome to the big leagues while Renteria sits on the DL. Can anyone here speculate on the chances of Atlanta parting with Renteria, and what it would take to get him. If Escobar is the real deal and a highly touted prospect, now might be a good time to grab Renteria from them.
Smaj - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#173094) #
Jays need to Marcum to fire a gem tonight as both the Bosox & Yanks lost this afternoon (thank you Rays & O's!).  Should be interesting to see the Angels running game tonight vs. Marcum who is probably the best Jays starter at holding baserunners.  I expect Zaun will be catching again.  Must win game tonight.  Any chance of the Jays putting up 4 runs in the first again!
AWeb - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#173104) #
Marcum came through with a great start again tonight, as is currently required for the Jays to win any game. That's eight 2-1 victories this year (2 in a row when Marcum starts), as the Jays lower their 3.77 home ERA a little bit.  Tomorrow is likely going to require the same thing from McGowan, with Escobar pitching (although someone is bound to hit a HR at some point, right?).  Scoring on a blooper and a double play with the bases loaded; right now, the Jays can't even look good when they score a run. But they can look good when the pitching and defense is out there...I must accept this if I want to enjoy watching, but it's not proving easy. Go Jays, only 5.5 games back!?!
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#173105) #
Marcum has been amazing since moving into the starting rotation.  He has now made 18 starts, and as a starter, his ERA is down to 2.92 including tonight's game.  There are only 2 starters in the entire league who have made a significant number of starts with a better ERA than Marcum.  Haren and Escobar.  I don't think very many people realize just how good he has been.
HippyGilmore - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#173112) #

Even when we win it's slightly depressing how inept our offense is. But a win's a win. We're due to hit about 15 home runs tomorrow night so watch out Kelvim.

trent77 - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#173118) #
Tonight is almost a guaranteed loss night.  On a bit of a roll, going for the sweep, playing a good team-I expect a 3-0 or 4-1 Angels win.  This offence shows absolutely no signs of turning the corner.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#173120) #

I'm as frustrated as anyone with the offence, but seriously guys: The Angels are almost certainly a playoff team (very close to one, anyway) and they've scored two runs so far. They've had 10 hits in two games.

It's possible the Jays deserve a bit of slack, no matter what the bats are doing.

Jevant - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#173125) #
With Burnett healthy (a bit of a stretch, to be sure) I'm as happy with our 1-5 (including Litsch) as anyone else in the league (with the possible exception of the healthy Angels - Lackey, Colon, Weaver, Escobar, Saunders).  Fortunately, this has been covering for the holes in the lineup (SS & C especially, although the entire team seems to have hot and cold nights).

I'm expecting a sweep tonight.  The offence is due (overdue?!) for an explosion, and for some reason I have a good feeling.  Probably naive, but McGowan pitches well at home, and the team should be fired up to get on one of those also long overdue "long winning streaks".  A sweep of the (in my opinion) best overall team in the AL would be a good start.

Ryan Day - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#173127) #

So how many people ever expected to see Shaun Marcum's name next to Johan Santana's on the leaderboards? Marcum's second in the AL in WHIP, very slightly behind Santana. He's also second in BAA, behind Bedard, just a smidge ahead of Santana. And 7th in ERA, trailing Josh Beckett.

Say what you will about Ricciardi's bad luck and/or choices with first round pitching, but he made the third round work out pretty well.

Anders - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#173130) #
Toronto now has an ERA of 3.24 since the All Star Break, best in the Majors by a third of a run... and they've  gone 18-14 in those games. (The Rockies are second, so go figure.)

According to Baseball Prospectus' 3rd order standings the Jays have been the third best team in the AL this year. One could make a reasonable argument that the AL East has been the best division in baseball so far this year.
trent77 - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#173131) #
maybe 1-3, but not 1-5 (I'd give that to the National League West).
jmoney - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#173132) #
Man alive, this offense is inept.

It was supposed to be a strength and instead its the Jay's weakness.

I think it really begins and ends with Vernon Wells. He's the face of the franchise and he's been terrible this year.

Go back to the first game in this series when the Jays were pounding on the Angels in the first. Vernon comes up and basically hits a double play ball. (Thank you for booting it Aybar)

His infield popups and double play balls are really killing this team. He should be nice and low in the line up. Terrible.

Ryan Day - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#173133) #

I think it really begins and ends with Vernon Wells.

It might start with Wells, but it sure doesn't end there. Glaus, Overbay, and Johnson are all hitting below their established levels. Aaron Hill has been extremely streaky. Shortstop.. well, yuck. Stairs and Rios are the only guys hitting better than expected.

So the big question is "Why?" Injuries have played a part, sure. But why have guys like Wells and Overbay, who should still be in their prime, suddently regressed? Why is Aaron Hill, who certainly looks like a professional hitter who knows what he's doing, hitting 245/245/358 this month? Why can no one hit on the road? Has everyone's career been an illusion to this point, and they're now revealing that they do, in fact, pretty much suck?

chips - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#173134) #
I don't know where Vernon's head is at some times. On Aug 1st I was at the Jay's/Devil Rays game in St Pete's(Jays lost 6-2) and went early to watch the Jays batting practice. I observed some players working hard on their fielding eg: Zaun and MacDonald. Vernon was wearing is ball cap sideways and appeared totally disinterested and unmotivated. From a fan's perspective, my perception was that his mind was elsewhere, even though it may not be the case. Hopefully I am wrong on this. He did steal a base that day, but also made the obligatory pop out and ground out.
Magpie - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#173136) #
I think it really begins and ends with Vernon Wells.

I don't - I've come round to the view that if Vernon Wells is your best hitter, you probably don't have a very good offense (unless you have eight other guys who are just as good as Wells.)

Wells as a hitter is the second coming of Joe Carter, albeit a little bit better. But surely if he can have a season or two that is well above his well-established level of ability, sooner or later he's going to give you a season or two that's just as far below it. Players have good years, ordinary years, and bad years - by their own standards. That's just baseball.

And so is Aaron Hill hitting .245 in August. It would be shocking if Hill, or most anyone else,  didn't have a month or two when they stopped hitting. Usually it's a lot worse than this.

Injuries are still playing a part. Glaus, Overbay, and Johnson are all back in the lineup but they're quite obviously not completely right. Hitting major league pitching is hard enough when your bottom hand isn't sore, or your landing foot isn't barking at you when you stride into the pitch.

Fair enough. But there hasn't been much of a Plan B, has there? No real sense that if the Big Boppers aren't bopping the way we thought they were going to Bop, we need to get something else - I know not what! - going.

Gibbons has tried some minor tinkering - Glaus dropped to sixth in the midst of his awful slump. Wells and Hill have both moved to the very top of the lineup on occasion - it worked great with Wells, it was a disaster with Hill. And with Hill's penchant for the GDP (he does lead the league) I'm not wild about seeing him come up to the plate after guys like Thomas and Glaus, who do manage to get on base a lot, but aren't too likely to get down to second base quick enough to mess with the double play. And as everyone noted before the season began, the lineup tilts very heavily to one side (and the two regulars who do hit LH both missed about a month of action.)

I dunno. I have no good ideas.


Magpie - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#173137) #
Wells did hit so well out of the leadoff spot, and has hit so poorly everywhere else, that I'd be ready to believe that the Big Contract has messed him up and he's trying too hard to drive in runs. Because that's what he normally regards as his job. (Ball players aren't analysts - for the most part, they really do think that RBIs are the most important stat in the game.)

Wells hit much, much better when that burden, imaginary or not (but certainly not imaginary to the player)  was taken away.
DepecheJay - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#173138) #
I think the problem is quite simple.  Mickey Brantley.  I like Mickey but this offense lacks any type of ability to make adjustments during the season or even during games.  The book has been out on Vernon since early in the season, actually throughout his entire career.  However, Vernon just keeps on going up to bat with the same exact approach and he keeps producing the same exact results.  He's basically 90% of an out if you throw him a high heater way out of the zone or a slider down and away.  For Christ's sake even Dustin Moseley was trying to tempt him with high heaters whenever Vernon didn't swing at the first pitch.  That's another problem, he swings at the first pitch way too often.

While winning with outstanding pitching has masked the offense for some portions of the season, the fact remains that they are atrocious.  Whenever the pitching doesn't spin a quality outing, they are a certainty to lose the game.  I'm starting to feel like a Tottenham Hotspur fan here, I sometimes think I'd rather watch a slugfest even if they lose some of them rather than watch these horrible offensive performances every night. 

As far as tonight is concerned, I'm expecting sweep.  Got McGowan going at home, the Halos offense has looked basically inept, why not?  It'll be interesting to see the return of Esco, who deserves soooo much credit for proving how great of a pitcher he truly is.  I'm almost "proud" of him really.  Honestly, I'm expecting 7-2 at THE WORST on this 9 game homestand.  They're already 2-0 and the pitching is on a roll, I'm hoping for 9-0 or 8-1 really.  A run like that puts this team back into the thick of things heading into September and that's all I really care for.  Meaningful, playoff caliber games in September against teams like the Yankees.  It's a start, from there we can worry about making the playoffs next season, etc.  However, anyone who thinks this offense is going to turn the corner is blind.  They're not, it's as simple as that.  It's almost September and they still suck, we've got to accept this as fact for the season.  Hopefully this pitching staff can make us remember 2007, the season where the Jays had a miserable offense but a pitching staff so damn good that they carried the team to the wild card.  One can hope, no?

trent77 - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#173139) #
what bothers me most about Vernon is the number of bad pitches he swings at.  he's on pace for a career worst in strikeouts (currently striking out 15.6% of the time).  To put that in perspective, last year he struck out 14.7% of the time.  A couple of other telling numbers:  batting .191 with runners in scoring position and 2 out, .205 in 'close and late' games, and .224 on first pitch hitting.  All these numbers tell me that he is definately not focused at the plate. 
ahitisahit - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#173140) #

I found an article that completely blames John Gibbons for the Jays problems this year.

http://sports.sympatico.msn.ca/MLB/Columns/Articles/Brattain-070815

I think he makes some pretty good points about moving runners rather than trying for the big inning. The thing that gets me about Gibbons is his "We'll get 'em next time" attitude. There must be a happy medium between Sweet Lou and Gibbons.

DepecheJay - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#173141) #
"I like being in a close game," Marcum said. "You don't get lackadaisical out there and you have to focus a little bit more because one pitch could cost you a ballgame. I don't mind being out there in tough situations, that's how it was in college, coming in and closing."

I really like this quote a lot, mainly because it shows that MLB players DO get lackadaisical.  I know a lot of people around here don't believe that at all, but on more than one occasion effort and focus have been brought up as qualities that only certain players possess.  I think it's an interesting quote from Shaun, and I'm glad that at least he doesn't get lazy out there.  Lord knows that's a problem with some of the players on this team.  I wish that Marcum's focus and love for close games and clutch situations would rub off on everyone else that's missing that.
Squiggy - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#173143) #
That article on Gibbons is a good one, food for thought. It confirms an opinion that I have long held, that Gibbons is one of the most thoroughly unimaginative, uncreative managers I have ever seen in my years of following baseball. He defines the role of a manager as nothing more than a "caretaker". It's almost as if JP decided "Well, I need to pencil a name in the manager spot - why not my old friend Gibby."

This is just venting and probably a moot point soon - it is highly possible (likely?) that Gibbons is gone after this year if the Jays don't pull a minor miracle and make the playoffs.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#173144) #
One possible Plan B would be to introduce Thigpen and Olmedo into the lineup a little more.  This would add a little more speed, without sacrifice elswehere.  Another would be to rest Frank Thomas a bit more against right-handed pitching, and let Stairs DH.  Again, there would be a speed gain, this time from very, very slow to slow.

The offence was scoring plenty of runs early when everyone was healthy.  The problem in August has been different than it was in  May, June and July.  The club didn't have enough baserunners during the period of all those injuries.  In August, the team OBP is a healthy .350, but the offence has been horribly inefficient.  These things tend to ameliorate themselves at least to a degree on their own.

DepecheJay - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#173145) #
I agree Squiggy, Gibbons is easily one of the dullest most unimaginative managers I can recall seeing for a long while.  The only thing he's good for is getting ejected every so often, and even then it doesn't seem to fire up the team much. 

As far as the lineup is concerned, it's looking a lot like 2005 now.  A bunch of singles but absolutely no pop and a bunch of stranded runners as a result.

Magpie - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#173146) #
A couple of other telling numbers:  [Wells is] batting .191 with runners in scoring position and 2 out, .205 in 'close and late' games, and .224 on first pitch hitting.  All these numbers tell me that he is definitely not focused at the plate.

They tell me he's trying too hard to prove he's worth $120 million in this at bat. Too focused, if anything.

Hey, you say tomato... :-)
MatO - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#173147) #
I think the article is unimaginitive.  It's just the standard stuff written when a team doesn't hit.
DepecheJay - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#173148) #
True, MatO.  But this team hasn't hit for the entire season.  It's not as if they were tearing the covers off the ball and have suddenly hit a lull which has led to calls for "smallball."  No, instead it's a team that, with their pitching staff, SHOULD be better than they are.  At this point in the season, what do the Jays have to lose by trying to scratch out more runs?  What good is it being stubborn and still waiting around for the big inning when this season's results have proven to us that the big inning ain't comin too often? 

That's all I think people are trying to say really.  No one has a problem with the 3 run homer approach when it's working.  It's just that when it's not, why not try and be versatile and go with something else to see if MAYBE it'll work.  If it doesn't, you ditch it and go back to your old ways.  In the end it's about seeing what approach will score the most runs possible and win the most games. 

Magpie - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#173149) #
Brattain is cherry-picking a very small bit of data. But I agree that the DPs have been deadly, which makes me think that when Aaron Hill comes to the plate you almost have to start the runners. It's Hillenbrand all over again. Problem is, he's batting behind Thomas and Glaus. You start them, Hill swings and misses, and you might actually have a chance to see a Double Caught Stealing.

The fact that Thomas gets on base more than anyone else on the team limits your small ball options. Big Frank gets on, you drop down the bunt, and they throw Thomas out. And I'm not sure if anyone's noticed, but no one on this team is particularly good at dropping down a sac bunt. McDonald is the best, but he's not coming up to bat after Thomas and Rios. Johnson is a good bunter when he's trying to bunt for a hit, not so good when he's giving himself up.

DepecheJay - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#173150) #
And thus you have the hitters take some time in the cage to start dropping down bunts with increased regularity.  Again, if it's a disaster and doesn't work, you scratch the idea and go back to what everyone's used to.  I just think it's silly to sit 5.5 games back of the wild card in mid august and not try and find out solutions to win as many games as possible.  It's become clear that whenever the pitching staff falters in the slightest bit, to where it can't even be considered faltering, the team stands a good chance of losing.
Magpie - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#173151) #
MLB players DO get lackadaisical.

OF course they do. How could they not? This ain't football. They do it every day. And when Roy Halladay is pitching, and there hasn't been a ball hit to you in right field for forty-five minutes, the mind may wander a little to that last at bat. Or the post-game spread.

But I actually think Marcum was talking about how pitchers get when the game is out of hand. The urgency of making a good pitch every time lessens, and you start grooving fastballs. Doesn't affect the particular game you're in all that much, it just messes up your ERA..
laketrout - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#173152) #

Couldn't agree more with that article.

Here's another article by Brattain where he breaks down Toronto's poor record on the road.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/road-kill/

MatO - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#173153) #
Sorry, but I can here was the article has to say after every game on Wilner's call-in show.  That's not a complement.  Honestly, I don't know how bunting will help when this team doesn't hit with RISP.  The real problem is that the team's best power display recently is Hill being robbed of home runs in KC.  I only watch half the games these days.  When the Jays are batting I just turn the channel so as to protect the TV from flying objects.
MatO - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#173154) #
Ugh.  Should be: I can hear what the ......
Magpie - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#173155) #
Well, the Blue Jays are hitting .272 with runners in scoring position. Same as the Red Sox. The AL average is .273 The Jays are slugging .426, the league avaerage is .420.

However, every team in the league except the White Sox has more at bats with runners in scoring position. Even Tampa. Even Kansas City.

Actually having more runners in scoring position might help.

AWeb - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#173157) #
One thing that people who beg for the bunt are forgetting is that bunting doesn't work any where near 100% of the time. You sometimes end up with double plays on pop ups, strikeouts, force outs, etc. A bunt is barely worth it at the best of times when it does work. If you take failed bunt attempts into account, it's not even close. Also, a bunt with Thomas, and to a lesser extent Glaus, on base has to be really good to advance the runner(s), making the failure rate that much higher. 

The only "strategy" the Jays need to score more runs is to hit better with runners in scoring position, especially with two outs (where they're the worst). That, and as the graphic showed last night, hit a freakin' home run more than once in a while. That's what has killed them in August, the 4 HR. Make that a still below average 8 HR, and there's a win or two for the team. Make it a more standard 1 per game, and that's another win or two. Screw scratching out runs, hit some dingers!
Frank Markotich - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#173159) #
Hey Magpie, no fair using actual data.
Magpie - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#173161) #
Screw scratching out runs, hit some dingers!

Aren't you too young to actually remember Earl Weaver?
DepecheJay - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#173163) #
Sigh... I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then.  I'm all for pounding the crap out of the ball, I actually hate smallball with a passion.  However, when it's become apparent that the dingers aren't going to come, you've got to try alternative methods.  Being stubborn and just sinking with the ship is pointless, especially for a team that's got the pitching to make a push.
MatO - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#173165) #
Data, schmata!  My eyes can't be deceiving me can they???
Squiggy - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#173166) #
The only "strategy" the Jays need to score more runs is to hit better with runners in scoring position, especially with two outs (where they're the worst).

I agree with that, and others who have essentially said the hitters need to hit. But what is the role of the manager during these sorts of slumps then? Just to watch the games unfold, knowing it will eventually change? We all know it will at some point, nobody is debating that.

But at the same time I think it is only fair to ask if there is something/anything that Gibbons could be doing to improve a crappy situation. I think the Brattain article at least presents data to show that something could be done, but it isn't. I am not a fan of the bunt, but to have it not be an option, ever, makes this team a lot easier to beat when the hitting tanks.

westcoast dude - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#173168) #
3 players in the league have 20 HR and a .300 BA: A-Rod, Ordonez, and Rios, zoned in and hitting .314 with a .91 OPS. One of the memorable offensive eruptions on the road started at Chavez Ravine with Rios and Stairs leading off.  The respect Bannister gave Stairs in KC was Bondsian.  Start me up...
AWeb - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#173176) #
There's no reason looking at this team to think that they'd suddenly be successful playing a smallball strategy. We've been over this before, but there's really not anyone able to steal a lot of bases. As for bunting, who will do that? Bunting in-game is a skill, and while it may be easier than hitting a HR, it's still not automatic to ask for a bnt and get it. Looking at the roster, it would seem reasonable, perhaps, that perhaps Zaun, Hill, McDonald, and Johnson bunt more often. Here are their Sac hits in career (162 game rate):

Zaun : 11 (2).
Hill : 9 (3).
Mcdonald : 32 (10), but he already bunts quite a bit.
Johnson : 11 (3).

Thomas and Glaus have zero career sac bunts. Wells last had one in 2002 (2 career). Overbay has one. Rios had one as a rookie. Quite frankly, even if I thought the team should switch strategies and use the bunt more (I don't obviously), they don't have the horses to do it, unless you favour playing inferior players to get bunting into the lineup. Like it or not, this team will be lying back and waiting for the big hits until they come, if ever.

As for Gibbons, I still don't see what he brings to the team; the same goes for Brantley. How are they actively helping the team right now? I never hear anything about them, which may just be the fault of the media, but still, it's an unanswered question : If Gibbons and Brantley were fired, what does the team lose? I don't ask to be mean, or call for firing, but I'm genuinely interested if anyone wants to stick up for them.

And I may be too young to remember Weaver vividly (his brief 1986 comeback rings some bells), but I'm not too young to have heard his wisdom from announcers for years of my youth. And let's not forget the best Toronto teams in history didn't exactly play the small ball game, so there's that bias too.
ayjackson - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#173180) #
Olmedo in for J-mac this evening.  Stairs on the bench.
actionjackson - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#173183) #
I've been looking into this lineup thing and I think I've got one that might work, based on who's hit best in what slots. Now, before all the statisticians jump down my throat about small sample size, let me just offer two words: "I know." However, I'd like to see anyone come up with a better idea. Nothing else seems to be working, so Gibby might as well try batting people where they're most comfortable right? Some guys were best at more than one spot e.g. Rios, Stairs, but this is the best overall lineup. I would platoon Stairs and Johnson in LF, as Stairs is at .290/.357/.562 vs RHP and Johnson is at .372/.438/.651 vs LHP and just let the rest of them hit in their favourite spots. Olmedo, Luna, and Thigpen are occasional players and should be. So without further ado here they are with BA/OBP/SLG totals in that position in the order as well as their PA in that spot:

vs RHP:

1. Wells CF           .304/.377/.667   (77 PA)
2. Stairs LF           .306/.370/.673   (54 PA)
3. Rios RF             .348/.434/.536   (129 PA)
4. Thomas DH       .275/.379/.455   (211 PA)
5. Glaus 3B           .333/.432/.613   (88 PA)
6. Overbay 1B      .358/.434/.537   (76 PA)
7. Hill 2B              .299/.338/.474   (226 PA)
8. Zaun C             .268/.394/.488   (100 PA)
9. McDonald SS    .245/.270/.328   (207 PA)

Against lefties, put Johnson in for Stairs in the #2 slot despite his .238/.333/.333 numbers out of that slot in 25 PA. His numbers against lefties have got to be too good not to win out. A big problem is when you have to substitute for any of these guys, but hopefully you try to keep as many guys in their favourite slots as possible. I know there are not enough plate appearances to make this valid, but what interested me about it was how good the numbers were in this year of offensive futility. We wouldn't be going apoplectic if the Jays were anywhere near this kind of proficiency. I doubt they'd maintain it, but there's definitely something to Wells relaxing in the leadoff spot and then you have Stairs left handed bat with Wells' speed if he gets on and Rios' bat looming behind. Thomas is the best of a bad bunch in the cleanup spot. The largest number of righthanded bats in a row (vs RHP) is 3: Rios, Thomas, and Glaus. Aside from Wells leading off, which is just such a contradiction to my delicate baseball sensibilities, it also looks like a lineup that you might throw out there. For those that like speed at the top of the order Wells and Rios, with Johnson joining them against LHP should suffice and don't forget Johnny Mac out of the #9 hole when he gets on. However #4-#8 looks like GIDP central or Basecloggers Anonymous, but what you gonna do?

Regarding the lineup in its current incarnation, I don't understand how Vernon Wells struggles = #4 hitter and I think Gibby has the wrong lefty bat hitting 2nd. No complaints about #3 or #7-#9, but I think Vernon is killing them in the #4 spot and needs to go back to where he was comfortable, if this team is really going to take a run at it. I also don't get two lefties hitting back to back against RHP in the #1 and #2 spots, with the switch hitter hitting 8th. This creates five straight right handed hitters, which is completely unnecessary, even when the lefty bat resources are so low. I know batting order's not supposed to make much of a difference, but the current incarnation is not optimized enough and I think could be better, with some outside the box thinking, but this needs to happen yesterday soon. I'd love to see what this lineup could do if given a chance. But I could be an idiot, I've been called worse.
ayjackson - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#173185) #

A somewhat "gutsier" effort by the Jays tonight, but for the second straight time, an impressive McGowan start was let down by the defence.  The Jays did have some good at bats in the ninth against K-Rod and the sixth against Escobar.  K-Rod discovered his change up in the nick of time and threw two beauties to Stairs.

Barry Bonnell - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#173187) #
According to Wilner Luna is down and Russ Adams is up.
Smithers - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#173188) #
Confirmation of the Luna to Syracuse, Adams to Toronto transaction is also in the Globe summary here.
tstaddon - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#173197) #
To those who suggested that Gibbons may merely be an extension of JP: that shouldn't be too surprising. It's not like the guy Ricciardi learned from has ever put much emphasis on the guy filling out the lineup card. Ask Art Howe.

Also: first Tim Harikkala, then Elmer Dessens. Two in-house fifth starters tried by the Colorado Rockies that have been absolutely bombed this week. Ladies and gentlemen (and JP), starting scanning their A-ball roster(s). They've got to like Josh Towers better than what other options they have.
zeppelinkm - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#173199) #

Actionjackson: I really like that lineup. I have been screaming for the last few weeks for the Jays to put Wells back at leadoff, just to get him on a hot streak and to get his mojo back. I like that lineup a lot. Anyway you can get in contact with Mr.Gibbons?

I have to say too though, all this talk for "smallball" strategy. These Jays aren't built for it, and Reed Johnson's attempt to go from 1st to 3rd last night in the first inning, might just have cost the Jays the game.  I would advocate a few more hit and runs to maybe help avoid the DP, but other then that, I want this team swinging.

I know Wells has been terrible this year, and swinging at the first pitch is generally considered a bad idea for a hitter (Just ask Teddy Williams). Although I think Wells might be an exception.. last year sometime they flashed a stat, I know this number isn't right, but Wells is somewhere around .330 for his career when swinging on the 1st pitch.  That being said... he's hitting under .230 swinging on that first pitch this year, so maybe an adjustment has been made by pitchers, and now Wells needs to adjust back.

 

Ryan Day - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#173201) #

I don't really get replacing Luna with Adams. Why pick up Luna if you're only going to give him 9 at-bats? And Adams at third base can't be a good idea.

Then again, I didn't see Luna in the field - was he particularly bad?

Mike Green - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#173203) #
It may be that the club intends to use Adams at second and Hill at third occasionally for the rest of the season to give Glaus days off. McDonald can also play third.
jmoney - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#173205) #
I was wondering if there was a worse #4 hitter in the AL then Wells has been... then I see Garret Anderson. Oi vie!

I agree with Ryan Day and Magpie that one player does not an offense make. I'm just playing to the adage that "hitting is contagious" and baseball is "90% mental"  So when the face of your franchise and your highest paid player is in a season long funk. The rest of the team kind of goes with it. On the bright side of things. The pitching is probably responded to the offensive malaise by being better then expects.

So if the Jays come out bashing next season, I suspect the pitching will be a bit worse.

Mike Green - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#173207) #
It is time to move John McDonald into a platoon role.  He's a fine defender, but the consistent .270 OBP does not work on this club.  The projection systems had Olmedo at between .311 and .329 OBP before the season.  Even if the projections are optimistic, I see no downside to using Olmedo against right-handed pitchers.  He is 26, and seems to be a fine and alert defender and baserunner.  I like him.

McDonald can get a little extra work spelling off Glaus occasionally.

Mike Forbes - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#173209) #
I definitely agree with Mike Green. I like McDonald, but he's really just not that good of a hitter. Olmedo brings some extra speed to the basepaths, isn't a real downgrade on defense and does anyone else enjoy watching him laser balls to first that look like they might behead Lyle Overbay?
Chuck - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#173231) #

I know Wells has been terrible this year, and swinging at the first pitch is generally considered a bad idea for a hitter (Just ask Teddy Williams).

I don't know that a strategy of swinging at the first pitch is inherently problematic if that first pitch is a strike, but Wells has a hankering for first pitches that are chest high and/or outside. And opposition pitchers know this and are exploiting this tendency. 

Both Wells and Hill are currently having a very difficult time with plate discipline and confining themselves to pitches in the strike zone. Whether the root cause is a fundamental problem with pitch recognition, a surplus of adrenaline, a lack of patience or stresses concomittant with a 9-figure contract, I can't rightfully say.

Interestingly, Frank Thomas continues to exploited in an opposite manner to Wells. Thomas likes to work deep in the count and thus often lets pass a first pitch fastball down the middle, typically the most hittable pitch in the at-bat. There was a stretch where he was becoming more aggressive early in the count and it was paying off for him. While his high OBP is commendable, it's too much a by-product of an overly passive hitting approach.

Mike Green - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#173233) #
Hill is having more difficulties lately with pitch recognition particularly down and away.  It obviously has nothing to do with a contract, and is not part of his usual career pattern.  Whether it's fatigue, a vision problem, a consequence of attempting to hit with more oomph, or something else, I have no idea. Giving him a day off against a right-handed pitcher (perhaps with a visit to the ophthamologist), and letting Adams start for the day would accomplish a few things.
Chuck - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#173236) #

While I am pleased with Hill's gains in SLG this season, I can't help being a little worried that this has come at the cost of OBP. His increased K rate may well be a function of attempting to "hit with more oomph".

It's interesting to note that while Hill's BB/AB ratio has dropped only slightly from last year, a good chunk of missing OBP points are due to his drop in HBPs from 9 to 0.

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