Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The Jays will encounter a desperate opponent this weekend. The freefalling Mariners have lost six games in a row.


The M's are 5.5 games behind LA of A and 1 behind the Yankees. They'll play a three-game series in the Bronx starting Monday which may very well define their season. With the Yankees in Tampa Bay this weekend, the Mariners really need to take two of three from the Jays to stay within striking distance. For this series, they'll run their 2-3-4 starters out there. For the Jays, it could be better (no Horacio Ramirez); could also be worse (no Felix Hernandez).

Seattle's bullpen is very tired. Last night, the Mariners took a heartbreaking 6-5 walk-off loss at Jacobs Field. The night began with a buzz surrounding Ichiro's world-famous commentary on the city of Cleveland. Then it got weird. Horacio Ramirez took a shutout into the sixth inning and left with a lead. Then it got weirder: the Mariners' bullpen handed the lead away. Seattle used five relief pitchers over the course of the game, which was tied 5-5 heading into the bottom of the ninth. Amazingly, J.J. Putz, whose name should appear on a few AL MVP ballots, never pitched, and Eric O'Flaherty and Rick White (Rick White?!) surrendered the winning run on a walkoff walk. I'm not particularly quick to attack managers for slave-to-the-save moves, but this one was just indefensible. The Indians' 3-4-5 hitters were due up and Putz was sequestered in the bullpen until the bitter end. Putz still hasn't pitched since last Friday. The Mariners deserved to lose.

One bright spot from that game was Adam Jones' first homer of the year. Jones has had some trouble hitting big-league pitching - 10 strikeouts, 1 walk - so he's had some trouble cracking the Mariners' lineup. I'm hoping to see him play this weekend, but I figure the Mariners will probably only sneak him into the lineup against lefties. At least until his first three-homer game. We shall see. It took the Mariners long enough to call him up in the first place; teams without a use for an outfielder with a minor-league OPS pushing 1.000 are certainly rare.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.


Mini-Advance Scout: Mariners, August 31-September 2 | 37 comments | Create New Account
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Sister - Friday, August 31 2007 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#173746) #
I was in Seattle this week on business and decided to take in a couple of (pivotal) games between the Mariners and Angels. Safeco is nice looking ballpark and even the cheap seats present a good view of the field. Every time I attend a ballgame in another stadium I realize how horrible the food selection at the Roger's Centre is. Good crowds were in attendance, around 45,000, to cheer on the home team. The crowd is a lot like a Jays crowd -- generally quiet and respectful and likes to cheers when *things* (in this case, speedboats, rather than delivery trucks) race around on the big screen.

Small sample aside, this is not a good looking ball club and I'm astounded they are doing as well as they are. Aside from this observation, they look defeated. This team is going to fall silently right out of the playoff picture (if they are not already there).

Outside of Ichiro the lineup is not particularly scary but it is balanced one through nine. Richie Sexson is in a particularly bad spot -- deeply scorned right now by the fans who booed him constantly. He is not only hitting poorly, but the boos seem to be hurting his fielding as well (he missed turning a key double play during the Tuesday night loss when he failed to grab a ball off the bounce). As alluded to above, some managerial decisions are being questioned. Again during Wed game with a runners on 2nd and 3rd, two out, and first base open he elects to let Vlad (who had been tearing them up all night) hit (against a RH) -- he hits a double to score two. Garret Anderson follows and, for some reason, they intentionally walk Anderson. Why they didn't just IW Vald is beyond me and then to do it to the following hitter, in a fair more meaningless at bat, boggles my mind.

I really don't see Seattle taking two out of three.
ahitisahit - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#173752) #

Does anyone know what the Jays record is with Wells leading off?

Marcum looked pretty average again last night, but I'll take the win. Nice to see the bats ringing, if only the season had 200 games we might be able to get back in the hunt.

trent77 - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#173753) #
Marcum's definitely getting hit around a bit-12 earned runs over his last 14 innings, a WHIP over 2.00.  He looked pretty frustrated after several pitches last night and I'm wondering if he might be running out of gas....
Barry Bonnell - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#173754) #
Interesting analysis from www.lookoutlanding.com, a Mariners blog.

"It doesn't matter what rating you look at - Overbay/Hill/McDonald/Glaus is the best defensive infield in baseball, and tonight they proved it. They made a handful of good plays, but the two the stick out are the McDonald play on Jones' grounder in the eighth and (obviously) the game-ending DP. If you assume that an average team would've turned the former into an infield single and the latter into a two-run base hit, the Win Expectancy boost for Toronto of just those plays alone was +68.9%."

Click on the blog and scroll down for more.

Pistol - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#173755) #
If you heard the Mariner broadcast they called the final play a single off the bat, until Hill got it.  It's kind of funny to hear:  "Single, no great play, and a double play to end it".
christaylor - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#173756) #
Ugh. What an ugly way to give up an out, by batting out of turn. Someone's head isn't where it should be. I suspect Whitt isn't doing his job.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#173757) #
Neither is Gibbons, because Johnson and his .214/.265/.248 continues to start vs RHP, while Stairs and his .298/.367/.595 rides the pine for a team that hits .247/.311/.402 vs RHP. It makes absolutely no sense.
Thomas - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#173758) #
The Jays are going to call up Kennedy, Fasano, Luna and Josh Banks on Monday, it has been announced. I agree with all of the choices, except I'd call up Lee Gronkiewicz instead of, or in addition to, Banks. Luna's been on fire since going to Syracuse and it's worth getting a closer look at him if he's in the mix for a backup infielder position next year. Fasano deserves to be up as a mentor to the young pitchers and to Thigpen. He deserves another month of big league money based on his tutoring of Marcum alone. With the number of young pitchers on our staff it makes sense to have Fasano around to help. It was obvious that Kennedy was coming up since the Jays signed him less than a week ago.

I understand calling up Banks if the Jays are toying with the idea of shutting down McGowan or Marcum towards the end of the month to limit their innings pitched. Giving Banks a couple of starts over the last couple of weeks isn't a bad idea. Towers can start, as could Kennedy or Tallet if necessary, but the Jays know what Kennedy and Towers can do as starters and Tallet isn't in future plans as a starter, so it makes sense to see what Banks can do in the bigs.

However, I'd have also called up Gronkiewicz and would have promoted him to over Banks. With four spots in next year's rotation already decided, Banks is facing long odds to be a part of Toronto's staff next year. Next year's bullpen isn't as defined, as Janssen might move to the rotation and Frasor is almost certainly on his way out. Gronkiewicz had a 2.22 ERA at Syracuse in 2005. He had a 3.27 ERA at Syracuse in 2006. His ERA this year is 3.26. As well as Brian Wolfe has pitched since his promotion, Gronkiewicz deserved the promotion and the extended tryout more. He has accumulated 111 innings at Triple-A with 100 strikeouts and 27 walks. I know the Jays don’t think of him highly, but he should get a chance to throw a few innings in September. He deserves the opportunity to show if he can pitch in the majors and you can argue he deserves it for longer than a few meaningless innings in September, but at least that would be a start.

scottt - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#173760) #
Ugh. What an ugly way to give up an out, by batting out of turn. Someone's head isn't where it should be. I suspect Whitt isn't doing his jobtte

It doesn't matter much since McGowan got the win anyway. Except Hill has a chance to set a record for the most double by a Jays second baseman and he just lost one there.


scottt - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#173761) #
Fasano and Luna isn't going to help much with the hitting unless they're used to pinch run for Stairs. I was expecting to see Lind back, he had a great September last year.
FanfromTheIsland - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#173762) #
I thought I saw Lind siting next to AJ on the bench. I could be wrong.
christaylor - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#173763) #
While the out didn't cost the Jays (aside from Hill's stats) at all, the lineup error highlighted the difference between those at the helm of the Jays and the Mariners. The Jays staff miss the error totally yet the Mariners caught it and appealed at the exact time it would benefit them the most. I'm not a Gibbons hater, but I'm not exactly a fan either... him and the coaching staff (with the possible exceptions of Arnsberg's work this year) in general more often look bad than look good.  The optics of today's gaffe just looked bad, really amateur stuff. The shot of JP on the broadcast spoke volumes though, hopefully he at least chews out the offenders and tucks this incident away in his cap when he decides what to do with the coaching staff next year. I would love to see a manager who actually makes me say "well that was an interesting/good move" at least as often as he does things that baffle me. As another poster pointed out, playing Johnson over Stairs against RHP is ridiculous. If this team wants to "finish strong" there's no sense in giving Johnson AB against RHP (Stairs should be in there). If this team is prepping for next year there is no reason to giving Johnson AB against RHP (Lind should be in there). Serious thought needs to be given to LF this off season, if Johnson is back in there everyday (and increasingly, I'm thinking even in there at all even in a platoon) then JP isn't thinking.

christaylor - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#173764) #
Last night on Wilner's show JP said Lind would be called up today (and even that he was already in Toronto for today's game)... so you probably weren't seeing things.
ahitisahit - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#173765) #
The worst lineup mixup I have ever seen was with Cleveland against the Jays. There were 2 Ramirez's on the Indians, (one of them Manny) and I think one Ramirez batted where the other was supposed to so Charles Nagy had to hit for himself right in the middle of the lineup. Does anyone else remember that?
Magpie - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#173766) #
I thought I saw Lind siting next to AJ on the bench. I could be wrong.

Lind was definitely at the park and in uniform this afternoon.

Bloody Jays. They broke our software! And GameDay was in worse shape than we were!
Magpie - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#173767) #
Does anyone else remember that?

Yup, and here's the game. But hey - getting two guys named Ramirez who both play RF mixed up... that could happen to anyone!

Gibbons was taking the blame for today's screwup, and he certainly didn't catch the mistake. What obviously happened is that whoever copied out the lineup card to give to the umpire and to the Mariners messed it up. And alas, no one noticed. The obviously correct lineup would have had Overbay 6th and Hill 7th, the way they came up to bat in the second. I assume that's what was on the wall in the Jays dugout? I didn't get a look at that.
Magpie - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#173768) #
The actual Ramirez screwup went like this - Manny was in the starting lineup as the DH and Alex was in the lineup in RF. But Manny went out to RF to play the first inning. At which point, Fregosi pointed out that the DH had gone into the field and Cleveland no longer had a designated hitter. So Charles Nagy went 0-2 in the number 7 spot. Johnny Mac pinch hit for them his third time up.
phifediggy - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#173769) #
Unrelated -- can someone please make a John McDonald defensive highlight reel so we can put it on a site like YouTube, get it noticed by ESPN's Baseball Tonight, and help Gold Glove voters make the right decision? The guy is amazing.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#173770) #
There already is one, and I think I have posted it before. I don't know how to post a link so you'll have to copy and paste sorry.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=T9UNx7ei1xk


ayjackson - Saturday, September 01 2007 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#173772) #

Magpie,

I thought the run scored against McGowan should have been unearned.  Without the Zaun throwing error, the runner would have been on second base.  Is it assumed that a runner on second will score on a base hit?  If it is, shouldn't it be assumed that Ichiro would not have gotten the hit since the infield would not have been playing in to cut off the runner at home?  I'm a little confused by the scoring here - is it black and white, or open to scorer's judgement?  Any thoughts?

Magpie - Sunday, September 02 2007 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#173773) #
I'm a little confused by the scoring here - is it black and white, or open to scorer's judgement?

That was the scorer's discretion. He thought the runner would have scored from second on that particular hit - and he's right, I suppose - and that's all he can base his decision on.

We were in fact expecting him to say "unearned" and when he didn't, we all (me, GameDay, the Jays PR guys) all went to make sure. But the fact that if the runner had been on second the defense would have been able to cut Suzuki's grounder off before it went to the outfield just isn't a factor. He reconstructs the inning without the error, but he can't assume a different defensive alignment.
ayjackson - Sunday, September 02 2007 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#173782) #
Thanks, Magpie.  I know this much - without the Zaun error, that run doesn't score.  Ichiro gets an infield single at best.  It's too bad the scorer doesn't recognize that in his reconstruction of the inning.  I have to wait another week to see each member of the starting rotation with an ERA under 4.00.
trent77 - Sunday, September 02 2007 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#173794) #

Gibbons asleep at the switch once again.  Bottom of the 7th Thomas walks.  Sure enough, Gibbons leaves him in until Thomas gets to 3rd base-after failing to score from 2nd on the Hill single.  Then, in the 8th inning with 2 runners on and 2 out, Thigpen (who replaced Thomas) is left in to hit against Morrow and, to no one's surprise, pops out to end the inning.  Who was still available to hit?  How about Lind???

And the Stairs fiasco leaves me speechless.  How do you leave a guy with a 1.375 OPS for the month of August on the bench??  The Jays record in August when Stairs got at least 3 at bats in a game- 7-2.  In July, 8-5.  What would be the difference in wins if Gibbons used Johnson/Stairs in a righty/lefty platoon since Johnson's return?  Is it a coincidence that in the last 7 games against the Yankees, the Jays were 2-0 when Stairs started and 0-5 when he didn't??  It's not like he plays the same position as Vernon-the guy plays the same position as a guy who played in a platoon role for most of his career!

Really, are there many managing jobs in pro sports easier than a baseball manager's?  You put your best 9 guys out there, occasionally pinch hit for a weaker hitter and pinch run for a slower runner.  You watch your pitcher for fatigue and pull him when he gets tired or doesn't have his best stuff.  You occasionally call for hit and runs and steal attempts and bunts.  Has Gibbons really grasped any of these concepts with a degree of competence??      

AWeb - Sunday, September 02 2007 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#173795) #
Is it a coincidence that in the last 7 games against the Yankees, the Jays were 2-0 when Stairs started and 0-5 when he didn't??

Well, mostly a coincidence, although certainly Stairs has earned more playing time than 1-2 starts a week, especially since the team is still marginally in it.  My best made up reasons on the continued Stairs mystery, and keep in mind I don't agree with any of these:

At age 39, they figure he can't handle starting more than once in a while.
He has some contract incentives that they don't want him to reach (if it was this, I'd say fire JP on the spot).
Stairs doesn't want to play more than once in a while.
They are holding his totals down in an attempt to re-sign him next year as cheaply as possible.
Keeping him fresh for the playoffs.
Some clubhouse issues that we aren't privy to.

As for why I think Johnson continues to get so much playing time, Gibbons clearly likes him, and they seem to have missed that he's several steps slower since returning, no longer providing quite the defensive advantage he once did (and might again next year). Managers have blind spots sometimes, and this is clearly one of them for gibbons and apparently JP as well (you'd think JP would send the "play him" message loud and clear by now)

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Sunday, September 02 2007 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#173797) #
And now we root for Seattle to wake up for a brief period of time and spank the Yankees!
trent77 - Sunday, September 02 2007 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#173799) #
and it looks like 90-92 wins is going to be enough for the wild card this year.  5.5 games may seem within reach, but that means the Jays would need to finish 20-6 to reach 90 wins.  So, 12-0 at home and 8-6 on the road would take care of business!  That being said 5 out of 7 from the Yankees and things could get very interesting.
Frank Markotich - Sunday, September 02 2007 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#173803) #
All in all, a good weekend. A three-game sweep and only one lineup card screwup.
paulf - Sunday, September 02 2007 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#173805) #
On the radio today Jerry and Alan were discussing Jeff Weaver's streakiness - he's either gone winless or undefeated in every month this year. Alan compared him to the team as a whole, and even went as far as to say the Mariners could be defined by Jeff Weaver.  That's probably the most damning and succinct assessment of the team I've ever heard. Pure poetry Alan.
FranklyScarlet - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#173813) #

Really, are there many managing jobs in pro sports easier than a baseball manager's? 

LOL.  You mean, the game of failure?  The game of inches? The game of second guessing the manager?

Maybe Thigpen was being given a chance to succeed, and climb out of his slump (what is it? 0-13) ahead, late in the game? 

We can't possibly know all the intangibles involved within the dugout each day.  And did you see, the hit and run with Hill on first, which resulted in a HR for Zaun?   

 

FranklyScarlet - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#173814) #

Let me add this article on Francona, and managing the first place Red Sox.

Some insight about what an easy time he has of it.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/09/03/managing_it_all/?page=full

 

 

 

Guy.Beauregard - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#173815) #
A terrific read. Thanks for the link--and for pulling this thread back in perspective. The messed-up lineup card still rankles, though.
China fan - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#173817) #

   Sportswriters often write their stories under tremendous deadline pressure, so I sympathize with them.  But in the rush to file their stories, they sometimes leave some yawning gaps and confusing passages in their stories.  Can anyone figure out what the hell Jeff Blair is trying to say in the following paragraph from his story today?  A prize will be awarded to anyone who can decipher his meaning.  He seems to be spreading an interesting rumor about the Jays future coaching possibilities, but I read it and reread it several times without a clue as to its meaning:

       Gibbons has a year left on his deal and is expected back, but Ricciardi wouldn't be the first GM to use a coaching vacancy to get an insurance policy in place.

Gerry - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#173818) #
Blair means that Gibbons is running out of time.  Ernie Whitt or Mickey Brantley will be gone for next season and a potential managerial replacement will be brought in to fill that coaching vacancy.  Mr. X can then step right in when and if Gibby gets the hook.
China fan - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#173819) #
   Thanks, Gerry.  That's much clearer and more logical.  (Why didn't Blair just say that, instead of letting us guess?)   But by the way, does this mean that Brantley or Whitt will be definitely gone at the end of the season?  That's far from certain, is it?  Blair seems to be getting ahead of the game -- or is it a fait accompli?
Rickster - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#173820) #

If Brantley doesn't get fired after this year, I would be shocked. The Jays are next-to-last in the AL in runs scored this year. They have scored fewer runs than Kansas City. Given the emergence of the pitching staff, even a Tampa Bay-level offensive output (~650 runs) would put them 4th in the league in run differential , on track for 92 wins, and right in the hunt for the playoffs. Someone has to take the heat for that, and the hitting coach is likely the one (even though the players have been a trainwreck). It is too bad for Mickey that the whole team tanked this year. It will be a great opportunity for his replacement to look like a genius when everyone (hopefully) reverts to form next year. Maybe even  Vernon Wells will play like a $5M player next year (though he'll be earning $16M)).

As for Ernie Whitt, I have no idea whether or not he adds anything to the Jays. I do wonder whether or not he could get a coaching job with any other team in the majors. (Note: It would probably have to be a place where the bench coach is not responsible for filling in the official line-up card).

Chuck - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#173822) #

The Jays are next-to-last in the AL in runs scored this year.

Here are the team-by-team R/G and RA/G rates.

The Jays are tied for third worst R/G and their modest edge over 2nd last Oakland disappears when you factor in home park effects. Their would be Earl Weaver style offense just ain't happening: 140 HR and 446 BB compared to the league averages 135 and 450. This should not serve as an endorsement of little ball as an alternative, but rather as a wake-up call for a more sober analysis of what this particular offense is truly capable of, injury excuses notwithstanding. The continued wishcasting for the good health of past-prime players in their 30's and the repeat performances of career years, is a sure fire recipe for self-delusion. While we can certainly hope for better from the team's offense next season, just how much better will they truly be? League average? Better than that?

As for their terrific pitching (just a quarter of a run of ERA behind the much more expensive Red Sox staff), certainly some regression is in order. McGowan is inches away from becoming the 5th man in the rotation to sport a sub-4 ERA. In today's game, that's unimaginable. And very likely unrepeatable. This staff would still be doing well in 2008 were Halladay the only member of the 3-ERA family, with the rest of the starters in the 4's. Hell, that's where we set the bar this season.

It's not Ricciardi's job to be frank with the public (only to appear to do so), so it's a fool's errand to take the words of, well, a politician of sorts, at face value. If we were to do so, however, and believe that the '08 Jays will look just like the '07 Jays, because the only thing separating this team from contention is good health, then I can't help but think another 85-win season is in store for us next year. The offense will improve, the pitching will regress, the pluses and minuses will cancel out, and we'll be exactly where we are now. If Ricciardi doesn't truly believe the message he feels compelled to deliver, then an honest, behind-closed-doors evaluation of the team's players should be in order and some snooping about in the marketplace should ensue, to seek out instances where other GMs seem to overvalue current Jays. Given the relentless dream clinging that is the Russ Adams saga, for instance, I am concerned about Ricciardi's ability to make honest and frank evaluations.

scottt - Monday, September 03 2007 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#173835) #
The offense will improve, the pitching will regress, the pluses and minuses will cancel out, and we'll be exactly where we are now.

I don't see any reason why the pitching would regress. This  hasn't been  a career year for Halladay. Burnett spent a long time on the DL. B.J. Ryan was awful the few days he was there.  McGowan is perfectly able to pitch well for many years. Accardo has a lot of room to improve. Janssen could spot start if needed. Marcaum has been solid all year.

You can argue that Litsch looks hittable, but he's probably going to have to earn his spot next year. I could see wolfe's number going down, but I'm not sure there's even room for him in the pen. Just keep Towers away from the rotation and put a platoon in left field and it the 2008 Jays should look great.
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