The Jays bullpen looks like it will be a strength for the team next year and at the very least it won't be a weakness.. It has a strong back end of the bullpen with Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs and Casey Janssen. Although not household names the three of them did an admirable job this year and even if they don’t repeat their performance in 2008, none of them look to be a flash in the pan. After those three will come some combination of Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet, Brian Wolfe, Brandon League, Joe Kennedy, Mike Gosling, Davis Romero, Josh Banks and any other free agent signings. Even with the inherent variance found in the performance of many relievers year-to-year I am reasonably confident the Jays will be able to find seven serviceable arms out of that group. Oh yeah, and BJ Ryan will be back, and presumably as good as new, by the middle of the year.

So why do I want the team to team to spend millions on a 33-year-old reliever who has never pitched in the majors before?



Three years ago I wrote an article on the best relievers in Japan, which you can read here. One of the names I mentioned was Hitoki Iwase, a 30-year-old left-handed reliever. Three years ago I wrote of Iwase, “He could make a valuable addition for a team in search of a left-handed reliever in their bullpen if [Hirotoshii] Ishii is not posted or signs with another different major league team. Iwase still has a number of good years in front of him, and with fairly good control he can likely survive without the stuff that some of the other relievers on this list appear to possess.”

At the time I was a proponent of signing Japanese relievers, as I also wrote in another earlier article, because the success of Akinori Otsuska, Shingo Takatsu and Kaz Sasaki had convinced me that you could potentially find some good bargains in Japan, as many relievers seemed to be able to make the transition successfully and yet it was a relatively untapped market. Well, the success of Hideki Okajima and Takashi Saito hasn’t changed my opinion one bit. While more teams may now be willing to spend the money on Japanese relievers, and likely more will enter the fray after the success of Okajima and Saito, there are still some very good pitchers in Japan who want to come across the Pacific and pitch in the majors. And one of the best is Hitoki Iwase.

Here are Iwase’s stats from Japan for the last 6 years.

2007: 2-4, 2.44 ERA, 61 G, 59 IP, 53 HA, 16 ER, 3 HR, 9 BB, 50 K
2006: 2-2, 1.30 ERA, 56 G, 55.1 IP, 40 HA, 8 ER, 3 HR, 8 BB, 44 K
2005: 1-2, 1.88 ERA, 60 G, 57.1 IP, 51 HA, 12 ER, 0 HR, 8 BB, 52 K
2004: 2-3, 2.80 ERA, 60 G, 64.1 IP, 53 HA, 20 ER, 4 HR, 14 BB, 53 K
2003: 5-2, 1.41 ERA, 58 G, 63.2 IP, 47 HA, 10 ER, 3 HR, 12 BB, 61 K
2002: 4-2, 1.06 ERA, 52 G, 59.2 IP, 38 HA, 7 ER, 2 HR, 15 BB, 66 K
TOTALS: 11-7, 1.77 ERA, 347 G, 359.1 IP, 282 HA, 73 ER, 15 HR, 66 BB, 326 K
7.06 H/9, 8.17 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9, 4.94 K/BB, (1 UER in 2002, 2 UER in 2007)

The BB/9 rate and the K/BB rate look even better when you realize that 15 of those walks were intentional. Discounting intentional walks, the BB/9 rate drops to 1.28 and the K/BB rate rises to 6.39.

Also, if you want to compare his K and B numbers to his batters faced, which gives us a more revealing result anyhow, here they are:

2007: 233 BF. 50 K, 9 BB, 21.46 K%, 3.86 BB%
2006: 214 BF, 44 K, 8 BB, 20.56 K%, 3.73 BB%
2005: 229 BF, 52 K, 8 BB, 22.71 K%, 3.49 BB%
2004: 259 BF, 53 K, 14 BB, 20.46 K%, 5.41 BB%
2003: 244 BF, 61 K, 12 BB, 25.00 K%, 4.91 BB%
2002: 231 BF, 66 K, 15 BB, 28.57 K%, 6.49 BB%

To state the obvious, Hitoki Iwase is very good. His strikeout numbers have fallen a bit over the last couple of years and he’s allowing more hits, but his control has gotten even better. I wrote above, in light of Iwase’s slightly declining peripherals in 2004, that it was likely he could survive for several more years because of his control was improved. Well, Iwase seems to have peaked with his strikeout numbers over 2002-2003, but that in the meantime he’s improved his control and refuses to walk batters. He’s walked 6 batters non-intentionally in each of the last 3 years. In his last 669 regular-season batters, discounting the seven he intentionally walked, Iwase has walked 18 of them. Colour me impressed.

Iwase is also very appealing because he’s very effective at keeping the ball in the ballpark. Combining his walk and home run numbers it’s clear the other team often has to string together three hits in an inning to score off Iwase, and all the while he’s striking out one out of every five batters he faces. Another factor to note is that Iwase has only given up three unearned runs in the last six years, so he’s not a pitcher with an artificially low ERA but who allows more runs that you think.

I imagine some of you are thinking, okay, so what? Iwase’s a good pitcher, I get it. But the Jays already have a good bullpen. Toronto doesn’t need this guy.

I agree. Toronto doesn’t need him. But are the Jays a much better team if they do get him? Absolutely. And I would argue so much better than Toronto should become a significant player in the bidding for his services, should he choose to come to the majors. Iwase is leaning that way, but apparently is weighing accepting a record-setting contract by the Chunichi Dragons, his old team.

Iwase has a good case as the best relief pitcher in Japan. He's not had a bad year in 6 years; his ratios are very consistent and he’s not at the age where you might worry about him suddenly losing his effectiveness. He’s been described as having a funky delivery, in some ways similar to Hideki Okajima’s, and if you can’t remember how well Okajima’s rookie year went than I ask you why you’re reading this blog. Any worry that his delivery might be an injury risk should be calmed by the fact Iwase’s not been injured in six years and possibly never in his career. In short, there is not a single red flag I can see in Iwase’s profile. The only reliever with a clearly better profile on the free agent market is Mariano Rivera.

Secondly, even if Toronto’s bullpen is a strength right now making it stronger is only going to help the team. This year Arizona demonstrated how a team with a strong back of the bullpen could leverage bullpen innings in a very effective manner and this is one of the main reasons why the Diamondbacks outperformed their Pythagorean record so significantly. Another team that demonstrated what a strong bullpen can accomplish was the Red Sox, as you basically knew the game was over as soon as it hit the eighth inning and Okajima and Papelbon were ready to go. September was a lot less fun for opponents of the Yankees when the Bronx Bombers were going from Joba to Rivera. Furthermore, should the Jays reach the playoffs, having a strong back of the bullpen is even more of an advantage as you can lean on your best relievers very heavily, perhaps best demonstrated by Boston in game 2 of the World Series. I know mentioning the playoffs issue is putting the cart ahead of the horse in a big way, but I do think it is worth at least pointing out that this move could have even larger dividends in the playoffs. It’s not hard to see the benefits of having a very strong back end of the bullpen and a back three of Iwase, Accardo and Ryan could turn a lot of Toronto’s games into 6 or 7-inning contests.

Astute readers may be ready to mention that Toronto did have 3 very good relievers this year, all with an ERA+ over 190. They absolutely did and I don’t think I was alone in noticing what a benefit that was and how favourably it compared to Batista-Frasor-Schoeneweis in 2005. However, the Jays can’t expect that again from those three pitchers, especially from Downs, who had a then career-high 112 ERA+ in 2006, and Janssen, who was a better pitcher in 2007, but not one whose peripherals supported his low ERA.

Furthermore, signing Iwase would allow the Jays to deal a reliever (or two) and would also give them the flexibility to move Janssen (or Wolfe) to the rotation. JP could explore dealing a reliever for another player or prospect or could attempt to add one to a larger package to secure a more desirable return. The most logical candidate to be traded, should Iwase be signed, would be Downs. That wouldn’t be a problem as Iwase could serve as the primary left-handed reliever for the next three years and one of Tallet, Romero, Kennedy or Gosling would make a serviceable second lefty. I’m not expecting the Jays to be able to add Downs to a package of Jesse Litsch or Casey Janssen, Adam Lind and Joe Inglett to get Santana, as one recent Hardball Times article recently estimated Santana’s value. However, Downs does have value. And he probably will never have more value than he does right now.

Two relievers offer some indication as to what one might expect Downs’s market value to be. A couple of days ago JC Romero signed a 3 year/$12 million contract. Romero had a 243 ERA+ this year and had an ERA+ of 135 and 128 in 2004 and 2005. However, his ERA+ was 68 in 2006 and even this year his low ERA also came with a 42/40 K/BB ratio. Scott Schoeneweis had ERA+s of 85, 134 and 94 in the three years before he became a free agent (you could switch a 107 in for the 85 if you’d like his last three years as a reliever, since he was used as a starter in 2004) and he got 3 year/$10.8 million contract from the Mets last offseason. Ron Villone made $2.5 million with the Yankees this year. Ron Mahay, who is older and worse than Downs, is highly sought and could well get a 2 or 3-year deal at $3 million to $4 million per year according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Rotoworld). Downs is arbitration-eligible and should get a nice rise from his $1.025 million, but he still might be cheaper or not require the longer commitment of some of the other options on the free agent market and talent-wise, he is just as good.

Now, do I expect Downs to fetch a king’s ransom? Not at all. But even a B minor leaguer or two would help our minor league system. But more importantly, I’d bet on Iwase having a better year than Downs in 2008 and probably going forward as well. That should be what is most important to a Toronto team built to win in 2008 and 2009. Iwase will be 35 in 2010 and there’s no reason he should lose his effectiveness at that point, but I’d rather be stuck paying a mediocre Iwase $3.5-4 million during 2010 rather than missing out on him because of an unwillingness to add an extra year to the deal.

In what he has predicted will be a quiet offseason for the Jays, JP needs to make sure his few moves are designed to help the team win now without sacrificing the future. Signing Iwase would be a risk. He’ll be expensive for a Japanese reliever and there’s always risk involved when someone has never pitched in the majors. However, risks are what the Jays need to take at times. Finding more bargains for the sixth or seventh spot in the bullpen or at backup catcher, both of which he has done several times, helps the team, but it’s not what is going to make it a serious playoff contender. JP needs to roll the dice, which he did on Burnett and which has worked out when Burnett has been on the mound. On a team that is average at many positions it’s hard to find spots to upgrade without spending substantial dollars, which isn’t something the team seems to be positioned to do this offseason. Iwase is someone the team could sign and potentially get a big upgrade with for perhaps $4 million a year. Plus, it would keep him away from the Red Sox and Yankees, both of which could potentially become involved in the bidding.

The team might have to walk away if the Yankees want to throw Farnsworth money at Iwase, which may be what ends up happening, but the Jays should make a serious effort to sign him and be willing to go to into the low 8-digits over 3 years. Hitoki Iwase could team with Accardo and Ryan to give the Jays a 1-2-3 punch at the back of the bullpen that would put them squarely in upper echelon of bullpens in the majors.