Going through the list of free agents I see 2 moves that I would like to put out there for others to respond( that is now that Posada is off the list).  Livan Hernandez and Kaz Matsui. 

Livan gives you what your looking for at the rear end of the rotation: 200+ innings, double digit wins, and experience on winning ballclubs. 

Matsui is a legitimate leadoff man with an excellent stolen base ratio, decent hitting ability, could play shortstop and could be replaced by MacDonald when we have the lead and need some additional defense.  

Neither of these to guys would break the bank, so both moves are "doable" and I think they plug some holes and could take the team to that next level if everyone else on the team is contributing.

Any thoughts?

Going through the list of free agents I see 2 moves that I would like to put out there for others to respond( that is now that Posada is off the list).  Livan Hernandez and Kaz Matsui.

I'm not sure that Posada could realistically have been said to have been on anyone's list. What were the odds of him not returning to New York?

I mentioned this in another thread, but Matsui is a 32-year old with a .325 career OBP. He is coming off a Coors-inflated 2007 season that's only slightly better than his career in terms of OPS+ (87 to 82). I see nothing but red flags as far as he's concerned.

As for Hernandez, someone's going to give him a 3/30 contract, or better, to be an innings horse. While that carries a lot of value for many teams, I'm not sure the Jays are one of them. His ability to log 220 innings won't be an imperative at the back of the Jays' rotation. I'd sooner pay someone for 170 innings of higher quality innings than the bulk moosh that Hernandez could provide.

I'm inclined to agree. A couple of years ago, Matsui would have been the guy to chance, but his numbers are not striking, especially considering his big year being in Coors. His fielding hasn't been strong in the last couple of years, and it seems unlikely he'd come over for a 1/2 year contract. Even assuming last year wasn't an outlier, he's an aging shortstop coming over the hump and while his bat might be alright, his range isn't. Cheap one year platoon with McDonald? Sure.

Anything else, not worth it. With Hernandez, it's a similar issue. If this was spring 2007, absolutely. The guy eats innings and pitches pretty well when he's on. But he's a soft-tossing righty who needs to hit the corners to be effective and has a career WHIP of 1.40+. He's got serious control problems when he's off, and a tendency to meatball the plate. Litsch, Janssen and Kennedy can all provide what Livan would bring as a $8M+ 4-5 Starter. Frankly, if that's what you want, keep Towers for 1/4 of the money for about the same numbers.

He is a lefty and would be an awesome platoon guy. He stinks against lefties, though. Worth 1 year, $3 million? Absolutely, but I don't think he'll come that cheap, nor do I think he's down with the platoon role.

AJ first. It looks like JP is taking the same position with AJ that the Yanks have with ARod. If you go, you go. Personally, I say TRY to see if a deal can be made BEFORE this year, if not so long. I'll be happy enough with us drafting another two Sniders.

On the FA's. Yuck. No one there that's going to be a "difference maker" for us. Assuming, ARod turns down our offer of 10 million a year for 5 years and two signed George Armstrong hockey sticks. I'm was a big fan of the Chief! 

On Tejada. I LOVE JMac, BUT Big T's bat and at least OK defense does make him seem like a nice pickup. Remember that T was injured last year, when healthy he is the best O's hitter and a very good bat indeed.

Tejada is a pretty marginal SS these days, and it's unlikely he'll see another full season in that slot. I think he'll be picked up as a 3B option. He's got a legitimate bat for the hot corner, and his arm is still pretty good, even if his range has eroded. I think the one area the Jays can't downgrade in return for offense is the infield defense. Toronto's starting rotation, aside from AJ and occasionally McGowan, is built around pitching to contact. McDonald, Hill, and Overbay are all elite defenders, and even Troy is league average or better. The Jays are constructed as a defensive team that holds a lot of offensive potential. I think if you start trying to go halfway in both directions, it will just fall apart.

Jeff Blair, who I really do like as a writer, does have some issues with Burnett.  I thought the "nice man" quip was out of line, especially since AJ can't defend himself or address it.  But then again, what's he going to say? "I am too nice!" AJ seems to be well liked by his  teammates.  He was quite charming in his Cabbie on the Street interview. But whatever, I don't know him.  The comment about the "mysterious" shoulder pain was out of line too, but I agree that it's  an attitude that comes from the front office.  If Burnett's arm is sore, he shouldn't pitch.  If it's a psych thing,  than why isn't the team dealing with it, instead of this passive aggressive needling that is going on in the press.

Blair probably wants him to talk and be more accountable.  Well, Jeff, welcome to the wild world of interacting with men. 

There's nothing mysterious at all about Burnett's health issues. The man has had TJ. He reports ongoing symptoms, but the team doctors are unable to identify a precise cause. He goes through the most painful of all the possible treatment options (active release therapy) and his condition does improve to the point that he is able to pitch well. Medical diagnosis is a combination of science and art. It is all too common that doctors are unable to identify precise causes without doubting the veracity of the symptoms.

I have to agree here...it's very arrogant to assume that medical diagnosis is infallible. Especially in dealing with shoulders. I think we're about 10 years removed from Sirotka-gate and as far as I know, there haven't been a whole lot of significant advances in dealing with that area of the arm.

Greg Miller was the best lefthanded prospect in baseball three years ago, breezing to AA as a 19 year old. Fast forward to the present and he hasn't been able to get his career on track despite doctors having always pronounced nothing seriously wrong with his shoulder.   He's had a couple of "minor" shoulder cleanups.  He is currently struggling his way through the Arizona Fall League, trying to regain his form.  I use this example to show that it's entirely possible for a player to lose effectiveness and confidence without milking injuries for the sake of riding out a big contract.

I also think it's bordering on naive for JP and/or Blair to sit back and think that the likes of Marcum, Litsch, Janssen, etc might be able to easily absorb the loss of Burnett in the rotation. Burnett is among the few pitchers in the majors who shows both above average groundball and strikeout tendancies. These pitchers are almost always in the top quarter of performers. You can doubt AJ's ability to stay healthy based on a very public and unmysterious TJ surgical history combined with pushing his pitch counts to the upper limits of what is considered acceptable these days. But publically overstating his replacability and doubting his fortitude helps neither him nor your own efforts to maximize a return for him if you choose to move him. I just don't see the upside in a GM engaging in that game.

Don't expect salaries to go down anytime soon after reading this article. I expect some pretty large contracts this year.

Great article, I think however there was another point that should have been made.  That is, what were the operating expenses incurred by the league?  If there is indeed expected to be approx. $3.5B remaining in gross revenue after payroll, then I wonder what is expected to be left for the greedy owners after operating and other expenses are taken into account?    What exactly is the average owner's return on investment?  The median might be a better guage due to the NYY empire.

Well, we know the Jays get around $200 million in revenue a year (I've explained how a few times)

I've seen you say this a few times, John.  I recall you based it on $6b in league revenues divided by 30 teams, with the Jays being average.  There is a lot of room for error in that assumption though.  Also, I think the averages are skewed by the top few earning clubs.  Maybe after taking out the top three earners, league revenues are $4.5b or $173m per club.  Maybe the Jays are close to average at $163m.

I have no problem with assuming that the Jays have $200m in revenue as a premise for a particular position, but I'm a little bothered by the representation as simple fact.  Is there other information this is based on?  F/S numbers?

As an aside, Blair said on Primetime that the Red Sox are now the biggest international baseball brand - taking over from the Yankees.  I'm not sure if this meant world-wide or outside the US, but I think it shows that they've had significant revenue growth away from Fenway.

Here's a howler from the rarely credible Marty York:

And sources tell me the Blue Jays are seriously thinking of pursuing both Clemens and his pal, Andy Pettitte.

This is from Metro Canada, the gold standard of journalism excellence.

Keep in mind all international  broadcasting and merchandise sales are split equally amongst  all teams. Putting your Red Sox cap on in Tokyo to watch Matzusaka  pitch  does not mean Boston gets this revenue.

I never meant to imply that, though I'm not certain you're implying I did.

The Jays have more than enough revenue to be able to afford to sign any player on the free agent market.  They will not though due to a desire to maximize profit. 

Which begs the question: how much revenue is two (=the minimum possible) home playoff games worth?

"We wouldn't do an extension," Ricciardi said. "We had no problem going to five years from three years and giving him the out. But at no point were we thinking of taking it past 2010. If he walks, we'll take the draft picks. The point we're at now, with our pitching, I think we're better able to absorb something like that than we were going in."

The above quote is from the Blair piece cited above.  It is significant, I believe that Ricciardi has no interest in sitting down to discuss an extension.  I read it to mean that they wouldn't even buy out his option - that he either plays out his contract or opts out.  If I'm reading it correctly, it speaks to - at the very least - JP's ambivalence to AJ's future as a Blue Jay.

  Hmm, I wonder if Aaron Gleeman was the author of that Rotoworld blurb on Griffin.

Rotoworld is reporting that the NY Daily News is reporting that AROD told them he and the Yanks "have been discussing a deal for the past few days...." Apparently the Yanks won't talk to Boras.

Interesting...

I saw him in Texas plenty, Mike, and trust me, you don't want Lamb playing 3B -- as a fielder, he is a decent 1B and a fine DH.

I have no numbers to back that up, just my own eyesight (which admittedly, is lousy) ...

Looking at Mike Lamb's defensive stats at The Hardball Times, he seems to have played average third base over the last four seasons (RZR about .670, where the average is .685).  The reason we shouldn't be interested in him is because Rob Mackowiak is available, whose third base RZR are well above average for the position and whose career OPS+ is comparable to Mike Lamb's (92 vs. 96).  Mr. Mackowiak also can play defence just about anywhere fairly competently, (excepting SS and C) and has a fair bit of pace on the basepaths.

I'd prefer Mackowiak, but I wouldn't complain about Lamb.  Their attraction for me is their left-handedness.

[Based on my suspect math, Mackowiak's RZR at 3B over the past four seasons is .763 and Glaus' is .704.]

AY, Mackowiak your brother-in-law or something? You've been shilling for him for a long time now. BTW, his BBRef page still needs a sponsor!

While I may not share AY's rabid enthusiasm for Mackowiak, a guy who can play both the infield and outfielder corners, in this day and age of very short benches, and swing a LH bat to boot, does carry some value. I know I'd sooner have Mackowiak on the roster than Adams (he says, risking igniting another We heart Russ Adams thread).

AY, Mackowiak your brother-in-law or something? You've been shilling for him for a long time now.

Gee, I didn't think anybody really noticed anything I say around here.  Okay, I'll tone it down a bit - he's not related.  I may have had him on a roto team at one point.

Well Mackowiak is no A-Rod, eh, John?  He He

In the same vein how about Hinske or Koskie?  They are lefties with a some power that can play third base and first base.

I would like someone to be used as an everyday pinch hitter for Sir John eh.  The Jays could have Stairs as the platoon for Reed and a Hinske/ Koskie as the daily pinch hit for McDonald.  It would also give them the depth inevitably required at DH, 1B and 3B as well.

It's not clear that a post-concussion Koskie will ever play professional baseball again. Last I read about him, he was facing many challenges just trying to live a normal life.

As for Hinske, given the history, Ricciardi might prefer a new face to an old one, though Hinske does exactly fit the Mackowiak profile: LHB, 1B/3B/LF/RF.

Last year, there was much more talk of an everyday PH for either Clayton or MacDonald, than actuality. Gibbons went through a stretch where MacDonald continued to bat in obvious pinch-hitting situations (Gibbons' hunches and all). I like the idea but have only modest faith in its execution.

Several have expressed optimism that a 33-year old MacDonald stands to potentially improve his offense because of the new batting coach. I think what's far more likely is that he will show a typical transition from age 32 to 33 and see declines in both his offense and defense, even if just modest ones.

And with MacDonald, of course, there are issues related to his stamina. His career high in AB was the 327 he logged last year. I would imagine that more regular playing time, on the order of 450-500 AB, would take a toll both on his offense and defense. Will the organization max him out at 400 AB and require a 250 AB caddy? Prior to 2007, Tejada had an eight-year run where he missed a total of 5 games.

The Tejada vs. MacDonald comparison runs deeper than just a straight offense+defense comparison. The Jays will need a quasi-regular pinch-hitter to deal with their shortstops and they'll need a backup shortstop who should be expected to log a not inconsequential number of at-bats.

Perhaps one less free agent out there now....

Barry Bonds indicted.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/law/11/15/bonds.indicted.ap/index.html

Player              G   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR  RBI  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG  SB  CS  GDP HBP  SH  SF IBB  OPS+
Dontrelle Willis    36  63  11  18   2  3  2    7   5   13  .286  .348  .508   0   1   1   1  11   0   0  121
Yovani Gallardo     20  40   5  10   3  0  2    6   1   10  .250  .268  .475   0   0   1   0   1   0   0   87
Kip Wells           34  53   7  17   1  0  1    5   0   19  .321  .321  .396   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   85
Adam Wainwright     36  62   4  18   3  0  1    6   3   18  .290  .323  .387   0   1   1   0   9   0   0   84
John McDonald      123 327  32  82  20  2  1   31  11   48  .251  .279  .333   7   2   4   2  12   1   0   61
Aaron Cook          23  42   8  10   3  0  0    1   4   14  .238  .319  .310   0   0   1   1  13   0   0   59
Brad Penny          31  65   7  16   6  0  0    7   1   23  .246  .279  .338   0   0   0   2   7   0   0   57
Tim Hudson          32  76   6  20   3  0  0    9   3   18  .263  .291  .303   0   0   1   0   4   0   0   56
Jake Peavy          36  73   8  17   4  1  0    7   2   14  .233  .250  .315   0   0   1   0   8   1   0   51
Carlos Zambrano     36  81   9  20   2  0  2    5   0   29  .247  .247  .346   0   0   0   0   5   0   0   49
Adam Eaton          34  62   4  13   1  0  1    5   3   22  .210  .246  .274   0   0   0   0   6   0   0   32

  G   AB    R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG OPS+   TB  SH  SF IBB HBP GDP 
178  351   40   82  10  5   8   35   0  1  21  64  .234  .280  .359  68  126  29   1   0   2   5

Not sure where to put this but it's a neat little write up on Mlb.com that follows a couple of avid ball fans that take in the Arizona fall league. She is an avid Redsox fan so it was interesting that out of all the players they have seen they signaled out Snyder and Purcey.  More specifically it reads:

Nineteen-year-old Blue Jays prospect Travis Snider of the Scottsdale Scorpions was one who caught their attention.

"He just looks like a potential impact hitter at the Major League level," Roth said. "He's very raw, but he's got a chance to really be a special player."

Snider was selected to play in the AFL's second annual Rising Stars Showcase on Oct. 26 at Surprise Stadium.

"He was an excellent hitter," Lynch said. "It listed him in the program as being 5-foot-11 and weighing 245 pounds. 5-11 I believe, but there's no way that guy weighed 245 pounds unless he was made of cement. Maybe 200. If he's really solid muscle, he might have been 220. We all got a big kick out of that."

Other players they enjoyed watching included Blue Jays left-handed pitching prospect David Purcey, 25, and Rangers shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus, 19.

To those who think the free agent market might not go insane this year...

Time to start trawling through the minor league free-agents.
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/bat_leaders.cgi?yid=2007&lvl=&lid=FreeAgent&sort=HR
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/pitch_leaders.cgi?yid=2007&lvl=&lid=FreeAgent&sort=SO

short stops offense only:
Aaron Sisk 28, Juan Merchan 26 (AA mostly, but best OPS), Danny Klassen 31, and a few other AAA guys in the 28-31 age range who washed out or never made it and hit about 260/330/400 and might not do it again at the ML level. ouch. there's some decent DH/PH potential though.. if we needed that.

To those who think the free agent market might not go insane this year

And those people would be whom? When even Selig admits to revenues of $6B, you know teams are flush with cash.

Yet the pundits seem to keep predicting that Hunter will get 6/$90-96m, which would seem to be down from what Vernon and Carlos Lee got last year.  This despite several big market teams (LAD, Wash, Tex, CWS, PHI) and some small market teams (KC) reportedly interested in the Big Three centrefielders (Jones, Hunter, Rowand).

Hunter's contract would take him through his age 37 season, which would account for some additional discount.

Hunter is a year old than Lee and three years old than Wells. More specifically, when Hunter signs his next contract (i.e., shortly), he will be two years older than Lee was when he signed his, and four years older than Wells was when he signed his.

Further, much of Hunter's value is tied up in his defense, or at least his defensive reputation (which is almost certainly grander than the truth at this stage in his career). Hunter will turn 33 in the middle of next summer. By the time he's 35, say, will his bat carry him in an outfield corner? He's not the hitter that Lee is and while his career OPS+ of 104 is only slightly below Wells' of 108, Wells was signed to his contract fresh off a 129 OPS+ (a level that Ricciardi no doubt presumed Wells could sustain, though many in these parts questioned).

I think were Hunter interested in a 3-year deal, it would be for an impressive annual rate. But if he wants 5 or 6 years, the rate will seem less impressive because teams are likely not projecting him as a CF for the entirety of the contract. Hard to fathom electing to pay $18M for a 39-year old Torii Hunter playing RF and struggling to post a .300 OBP.

It's been mentioned here and elsewhere that since there are between 39 and 62 type A or B free agents, all teams are limited to signing three.

The source of that rumour is this Hardball Times article.  Since this has gotten no mainstream media play, and the Yankees are showing little regard for it, I assume there is another clause that either a)  excludes your own free agents from consideration, or  b)  excludes your own free agents who are resigned within the exclusive bargaining window (Posada).

Travis Snider was named third best prospect in the AFL by Baseball America, behind Cameron Maybin and Evan Longoria.  I'm not really sure of the criteria since the top two saw limited action.  Regardless, behind the wall at BA, Chris Kline had this to say (among other things) about our young Travis:

There was no better pure hitter in the AFL than Snider, who was also one of the youngest players in the league. The 19-year-old lefthanded hitter faced lefties on a more consistent basis than he had in his full-season debut at low Class A Lansing in 2007, and wound up hitting .304/.407/.590 against them.

More from Chris Kline at BA:

Like I said to a lot of guys when I got back from the AFL, if there was one player I completely fell in love with that I hadn't seen in person, it was Snider. Outstanding patience in his at-bats, plus strength and bat speed . . . I could really talk about him all day, but then my housecleaning would get neglected.

This is something I've been wondering about for a while - let's say the Jays snagged Dontrelle Willis.  For a pitcher, he can hit pretty well, so if the Jays were playing a game in which Willis was not the starter, could they have him pinch hit or DH?  I always thought if you could find a pitcher who was at least league-average and could hit at least as well as anyone on your bench, why wouldn't you use that guy as a pinch-hitter on a regular basis?  Especially if he could play the field, like first base or left field.  Is there a rule preventing this strategy?

Of course, I suppose it would be humiliating, being such a bad hitter that you get lifted for a pitcher, when in the National League, it's the other way around.  In Soviet Russia, the pitcher pinch-hits for you!

You can use just about any player at any position if you wanted to do so.  Hitters have come in to pitch innings in a blowout.  Pitchers have come in from the bullpen to pinch run.  I'm sure at some point in the AL, a pitcher has probably pinch hit.

There is in fact a rule that if you move your DH into the field to take a position, you lose your DH and your pitcher has to hit for himself in that spot just like in the NL.  So if an American League club really wanted to, they could certainly designate a pitcher as a DH or elect to go with no DH. 

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting to see it happen though.

RE:  Maximum number of free agents that you are allowed to sign.

I believe that the cravat in this whole thing for the Yankee's is this:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2003/01/transactions-glossary.html

"A club may sign as many type A and B free agents as it has lost, regardless of the limits above. "

According to this, they sign back all the FA's that they were going to lose.... but won't be able to get any other Free Agents that might be on the market (because that will put them over the *limit*).

This is something I've been wondering about for a while - let's say the Jays snagged Dontrelle Willis.  For a pitcher, he can hit pretty well, so if the Jays were playing a game in which Willis was not the starter, could they have him pinch hit or DH?  I always thought if you could find a pitcher who was at least league-average and could hit at least as well as anyone on your bench, why wouldn't you use that guy as a pinch-hitter on a regular basis?  Especially if he could play the field, like first base or left field.  Is there a rule preventing this strategy?

So, essentially find a OF/1B type who can pitch one out of every 5 days too? Hmm.

The Blue Jays have claimed 24 yr old Cody Haether from the St.Louis Cardinals.  I don't see this posted anywhere here and it didn't even make rotoworld but I think it has a chance of being a decent move that flies under the radar.  It was reported yesterday on scout.com, more specifically at http://padres.scout.com/a.z?s=315&p=2&c=702580

A couple tidbits from the report:

A 2007 season ruined by injury and increased competition at the corner outfield positions at the upper levels of the organization perhaps along with changes in the Cardinals' minor league hierarchy seemingly changed everything for the 24-year-old.

In a transaction that has to be considered a major surprise, this week the Cardinals acted to remove Haerther from their 40-man roster. In doing so, they had to risk exposing the player to irrevocable waivers. The Californian did not clear, instead being claimed by the Toronto Blue Jays. He now moves onto their 40-man roster.

I asked Cody if he planned to make the Cardinals regret their decision. He quickly and emphatically agreed. “I plan on doing that. I promise you I plan on doing that,” Haerther said firmly in closing.

In looking over my 2 yr old 2006 Baseball Prosepectus it reads: " The Cards' best outfield prospect..he's hit for average, some power, and played promising defence.  One scout compares him to a young Rusty Greer which hopefully refers to Greer's performance and not his injury status.  Right now it looks like he could be in St.Louis putting up major league starter numbers by next yr (that would be to start the 2006 season...oops that didn't happen).

To me it appears he is more like the injury-riddled Rusty Greer but you never know.  I think this is a good claim.  Since he was plucked off waivers and added to the team's 40 man roster, does it mean he has to stay on the Bluejays opening day roster?

His carreer stats can be found at http://thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Cody-Haerther.shtml

    The official Blue Jay website does confirm that Cody Haerther has been added to the 40-man roster.  But a couple of cautionary notes:  this guy, at age 24, has never reached the AAA level.   And even before his latest injuries, he was only the 12th-rated prospect in the Cardinals organization a year ago.