I see it as a big win for the Rays, who get an excellent starting pitching prospect who has top notch stuff. Interestingly, both Garza and Young have had some attitude issues in the past, and a change of organizations could be just what they both need. Evidently former top prospect Delmon Young has big talent, but he also has many holes in his game. He posted a 288/316/408 line as a 21 year old. I can see him being excellent as he matures, but who knows how much he will produce in the immediate future.

Ughhh!  Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Niemann, Davis, McGee, Price......all project to number 1 or 2 starters.

Oh well - at least they only have Crawford, Upton, Dukes and Baldelli in their outfield now.......errr.

The .316 obp was a little disappointing, but seriously, the guy was 21.  He should probably have been in AAA last year.  I think anyone who can play in the majors at 21 and not be overmatched has considerable potential.

It seems to be standard procedure for a lot of teams to rush players to the majors who aren't entirely ready.  It happened with the Tigers with Bonderman and recently with Maybin as well who was a year younger than Young.

Garza is a very good prospect and the Rays are building some serious young depth in the pitching rotation.  How long it takes all of these talented young arms to produce big results is another question but they're taking a shot.

Delmon's Young 288/316/408 is obviously no great shakes for what has become the most prominent offensive position in the AL. But he's just 21, meaning there's all kinds of growth ahead of him, at least theoretically.

At that age, Vernon Wells was in AAA (as he also was at ages 22 and 23). Alex Rios was in A ball. Aaron Hill was in A ball. Lyle Overbay was a year removed from rookie ball.

21 is pretty darned young.

For his sake, let's hope his path to maturity isn't a clone of Jose Guillen's. Guillen was also a regular at 21 where he posted a very Young-like 267/300/412 line. Many at the time felt Guillen was rushed, having been promoted straight out of A ball. From age 21 to 26, Guillen scuffled before finally putting things together at age 27. Young does have 900 AA and AAA ABs under his belt, so he's probably much better equipped than Guillen was at that age.

I strongly suspect the Twins would take that deal in a heartbeat, and that it would be a terrible trade for the Jays. Dustin McGowan is one of the league's top young starters and will make league minimum next year and the year after. Accardo is a good young relief pitcher who will also make league minimum next year. Snider is one of the game's top prospects, and is going to be extremely affordable for years to come. He's also a lefty. Santana, on the other hand, has only one year left on his contract and will make at least $25M annually after that one year. Even with assurances that Santana will re-sign, I'd much rather have Dustin McGowan, Jeremy Accardo, and Travis Snider + $25M annually.

McGowan, Accardo, and Snider would be similar to the Yankees trading Joba Chamberlain, Robinson Cano, and Ian Kennedy for Santana - it just won't happen. If you're interested in some ideas about what it would take to land Santana, check out Aaron Gleeman's blog.

I think Santana is a particularly good play for clubs that are bursting at the seams with both cash and young talent, and while the Jays are not starving in either category, they are not the best destination for Johan.

The Rays have now passed both the Jays and O's in offense

On what basis is this fact?

Whether the Rays pass Toronto in 2008 or not, I wouldn't bet a lot on Toronto's chances to be ahead of the Rays 3 years from now and on. The disparity in young talent is very large.

Dean, I can only assume you are a huge Tampa fan (why would be another question).  Unless the Rays start to spend some money, then I can't see them coming close to catching the Jays.  I think you might also have undervalued the kids coming up through our system and possibly overvalued some of Tampa's hyped up youngsters.

Now enough of all this silly talk about Tampa getting better.  I say we continue to concentrate on how we can catch the teams that matter - now and in three years time.

Btw, is there some reason why Eckstein is off everyone's radar? He seems like he would be a better option than McDonald. And he's a class B free agent, I think.

Well quite obviously he has to be considered "off the radar "since Marco Scutaro was aquired. That move cemented Ricciardi in. If he went after Eckstein now he would look silly. And I have a hunch JP's ego couldn't stand that.

And now it appears that the Rays are about to sign Percival to a 2 year contract. 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3132471

I would love to see each league go back to two divisions of 7 teams in each with a change of permitting the top two teams in each to make the playoffs.  The East is getting stronger and stronger and this is going to make the Wildcard very unlikely for the Jays.

The East is getting stronger and stronger and this is going to make the Wildcard very unlikely for the Jays.

Conversely, you could argue that stronger Rays and Orioles teams will pull the Yankees and Red Sox back a bit and make the division tighter and more interesting later in the year (if not easier to win).

No question, the Rays have some very sweet youngsters - finishing last for 36 years straight gets you some good draft prospects. They'll be a handfull.

Santana - he's not coming to the north shore of Lake Ontario - unless the Yanks (or Sox) are in town, and then it'll only be for a visit. I've got a bad feeling about him. I would be leery of spending too much on him - I think he's going to go downhill physically - and soon!

"McGowan, Snider and Accardo." Possibly the best young starter in basball, perhaps a HOF hitter and a could be best young closer in the bigs. Why would anyone even consider trading these guys for Santana?  Our core is going to be very, very good for at least another five years.

The only players out there I can see who I REALLY, REALLY, want are SS's Tejada or Jhonny Peralta. If I was JP I'd really try and get one of these dudes. They would give us an exceptional 1 through 9 hitters.  

"McGowan, Snider and Accardo." Possibly the best young starter in basball, perhaps a HOF hitter and a could be best young closer in the bigs.

Now, that's definately a homer talking - Luv it!

It is very funny to me reading all the threads about how the Jays cannot compete with the Red Sox and Yankees.  Well the fact is- They can.  That is, if we stop pretending that if everything goes right we can compete for a playoff spot and JP starts admitting that there are holes in this club that needs addressing and starts putting the wheels in motion to solve those holes.  This Team needs some sort of plan, and I just don't see one.  Either make some moves that will allow this team to realisticaly compete or start rebuilding.  One or the other!  As I said before there are many names out there right now that could help this team make a push, and yes they will cost some young talent, but we can't win anything with prospects.  And if JP is not willing to part with prospects to make this team a contender than he might as well get rid of the high salary players(Burnett, Thomas, Glaus) and start flooding the system with prospects and aim to compete 5 years down the road.  I would be glad to see a plan like that instead of floating around the .500 mark for the next 5 years....Hoping everything works out.

Not that it really makes it that much more appealing, but I think Andrewk's proposed trade was supposed to be McGowan, Accardo, and Snider for Nathan and Santana. Not just Santana.

But I would never do that trade. The difference in quality, potentionally, between McGowan and Santana next year over 30 starts, will certainly not be worth $20,000,000.  McGowan could very well be a 115 - 130 ERA+, and I think that is a fairly safe bet (he could, without that big a leap of faith, be in the 130 - 150 ERA+ range). The million dollar question is whether or not he posts those kind of numbers over 30+ starts or 15 starts.

If they were even thinking about making that kind of money available and sacrificing that kind of talent to get Santana, then i need to get a bunch of beers and wonder why the heck they didn't go nuts and sign A-Rod.

I'm on board with the thought process here to make something happen for Tejada, if he is on the market. Bite the bullet. Even if he is a little worse offensively this year than last, and even a little more so the next year, he will solidify the Jays lineup 1 - 9 dramatically.  I think something that is often not considered when looking at offensive stats of J-Mac and countering it by saying his defence makes up for it is the impact he has on the line up. He's not just bad himself, but he "doesn't keep the line moving", so I think (somehow at least), he also affects the lineup in an negative, intangible way.  He kills momentum. Having no weak leaks I think creates an exponential effect and gives the lineup a kind of synergy, where they'll be even better then just the sum of the individual performances. I don't know, call me crazy, but I think this is true.

With Tejada on board, I can easily see J-Mac starting 60 games and appearing in close to 100, which would be just about perfect to maximize his value. Pinch runner and defensive sub for Glaus late in games, defensive replacement for Tejada late in games, etc.  His value is not as a hitter, so the key is to utilize his strengths will avoiding his weakness as much as is humanly possible.

I can sympathize with Exit because JP doesn't seem to give enough chances to the younger players. I like having more discussion like this on the board and fans that have a variety of opinions for debate. Please stay with this team, Exit. ANationalAcrobat I usually enjoy your posts.^^ If we were to distance ourselves from the Jays for a moment, what would we expect from a 90 million dollar team (80 last year) in a division with 190, 150, 94, and 25 million dollar teams? The real tough decision will come mid-season when the Jays are humming around slightly above .500 baseball because JP will have to go for it by adding players or dumping players (perhaps). I won't be able to stand another .500 season and come back with (basically) the same team in 2009. The thought of having Glaus exercise his option with Thomas meeting his requirements for another year and Burnett opting out is not a good one.  Maybe I am getting ahead of myself; however, I don't want to see Burnett sign with a team that would make us not be able to claim their first rounder (finishing under 15th place). It may be a significant gamble to think that he will be healthy to trade at the deadline. Then, we could not definitely receive the kind of compensation most would think fair for losing him.

IMO, I like the younger players we have. I like to see more team speed and energy. We have seen the veterans on the Jays unable to overtake NY and Bos for over a decade now. If you want to have a pipeline of young players, you have to give them a chance to play. They are probably not going to run away with a position from a veteran player in spring training. You have to take a little risk to have a chance to get that possible upside. JP- good luck.

National, I really don't see Exit's post like that at all. From my perspective, he's basically saying, get off the fence JP! Either go for it, or don't.

But stop being so darn caught in the middle between fielding a legitimate, contending team, versus one building for the future.

At least this is how I interpreted it.

Acrobat,   I am not impossible to please I would just rather see  the Jays organization make a strong push to overcome mediocracy.  Is that to much to ask?? 

it's painfully obvious that the team is trying to win as many games as possible under a relatively tight budget while turning a healthy profit. Simple as that, that's the plan.

So if I understand what your saying: the plan is to remain around a .500 club and hopefully compete for 3rd place in the East.  Good Plan.  I like it.  Thanks for clarifying.

Blowing up a team with the goal in mind of competing 6 years down the road is going to turn off numerous fans (myself probably included), driving down ticket sales and general interest, and creating a potential negative spiral

Or how about considering the alternative: how about legitimately competing by adding a few key names, turning on more fans(myself included) driving up ticket sales and general interest, and creating a potential positive spiral.  Wow.  Imagine that.

Look this team as it stands does not need very much to take it to the next level.  It doesn't need to increase payroll dramatically or give away its farm system.  IMO it needs to make a few key aquisitions and/or signings, which ultimately will cost some prsopects or money, and there you have it.  I don't think that is unrealisic or to much to expect.  If you are happy the way things have been going perhaps you would also enjoy the Rays, Nats, Royals, and Marlins.

The Rays were in Toronto to end the season and Delmon Young was pulled from one of the games for failing to run out a ground ball.  Young then went on a rant and complained about the manager picking on him and saying his season was over leading to a face to face meeting the next day.  I believe Young got into that game as a sub late in the contest.

Could this, and some of Young's earlier issues, have contributed to this trade?  Did manager Joe Maddon say "get him out of here".  We might never know but it could have been a factor.

I think the key to this trade will be Young's development.  Young has great potential but he is too much of a free swinger and very prone to breaking balls.  If Young becomes more disciplined he could put up huge numbers, if he does not then he will fall short of his potential.

With a few new GM's around, it is time for JP to establish himself as being in the top third rather than in the middle as most analysts view him.  I agree.

A couple of offseasons ago JP brought in some real talent and it seemed to me at least to spark a new interest in the Jays and kind of looked as though they were really looking towards moving forward.  Then, last year the same thing, JP looked to be a key player, unfortunately, (or fortunately) it never worked out.  But this year, nothing?  Did JP get his ego hurt last offseason and therefore doesn't want to get invloved?

IMO, I don't think you have to mortage the future and I certainly don't think that the team should make any sort of moves to jeopardize the future in a hasty 2008 or bust kind of mentality. 

But what about this:  Make a serious push towards aquiring Tejada.  Add Micheal Barrett ( even though it is going to cost a little more than one would hope) add Podsednik to the bench, and add another starting pitcher( not one that will break the bank but someone above the caliber of Tomo Ohka).......or something like that.

Am I dreaming??  Is this an impossibility???

I would love if the Jays picked up Podsednik, but I'm a sucker for guys with some speed.  I still miss the go-go 80's with all those stolen bases, and I can see the value in using  Podsednik as a pinch runner for Frank Thomas or Troy Glaus in the late innings.  Probably would only get the Jays a few extra runs over the course of the season, but sometimes it seems like a walk to Frank Thomas practically guarantees a double play.  I really miss the excitement that players like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines used to generate on the basepaths, and while there are a few players out there who can fly, they don't get on base as often as those two (hopefully) future HOFers.

If I may digress for a moment...

One thing I like to do with the Baseball Mogul game is to go back to the mid-80s and stack my team with an All-Star lineup.  This was my 1987 Blue Jay lineup:

R. Henderson - T. Raines - W. Boggs - W. Clark - D. Murphy - D. Strawberry - A. Trammell - P. Molitor - M. Nokes

Rickey scored 183 runs and Tim scored 176 runs with this lineup, which ended up scoring 1283 runs total for the season (almost 8 runs per game!).  Every player in the lineup had at least one hundred runs and one hundred RBIs, and they won 131 games.  It was sweet revenge burying the Tigers in the last weekend of the season before running the table in the playoffs.

I am not going to worry about the Rays until they start showing the desire to spend some money.  They have always been loaded with prospects.  By the time most of their current crop develops, guys like Kazmir and Crawford will be Yankees, Mets or Dodgers.

As for the Jays (does anyone else hate that the identity of the Jays and Rays is almost the same in name and uniforms?) I think they seem to be poised for a decent run for a few years.  They have pretty decent pitching depth in the rotation and bullpen which is the key to consistent results.  You can't really can't second guess JP for any of the moves he has made in the last 2 years (I will duck now)except for the signing of Thomas (I don't like the idea of signing a guy for 3 years in a key spot to watch him decline towards retirement).  I don't think anyone saw Wells falling off a cliff last year, or Overbay getting nailed or Reed underperforming so much.  I know SS is a sore spot but I think the notion that they have a top end defensive SS is a defensible plan.  JP even seems to have evolved in his drafting philosophy. 

If the Jays can put together their offence from 2 years ago with the pitching of last year, they have a decent shot.

So you want a plan?  How about ride on this wave of pitching depth for 3 or 4 years, then hope the higher end high schoolers that have been drafted will be ready to contribute.  The plan gets you a bunch of years or .600 ball, with maybe one year when you make the playoffs. 

My take on the Jays is that if all of the injured players return to full health, and if all of the players who had the worst years of their careers last year (there were a bunch) return to just their career norms, this is a contending team.  By contending, I mean an 87-90 win team right now that will need a few things to go right, such as a break-out season from one of the youngsters plus good health.  Remember that Boston had a similar injury plagued season in 2006 and finished in 3rd place behind the Jays, then they won the World Series the very next year.

I am satisfied with this team if J.P. doesn't make any big moves.  Their rotation is among the best in the league, their bullpen with a healthy Ryan is among the best in the league, and a lineup 1-8 of Rios-Wells-Overbay-Thomas-Glaus-Stairs-Hill-Zaun will score runs.

Having said that, I would like to see an improvement at SS, with McDonald being used as a defensive replacement and the odd start with ground ball pitchers Halladay, Burnett and McGowan on the mound.  But there isn't a SS on the market that I would like to see the Jays sign, Eckstein included.  So the only option would be to trade for a SS.  To do that, the Jays would likely have to lose some of their great pitching.  They have six legitimate starters right now (the "big 3" plus Marcum, Janssen and Litsch).  However, there will be injuries, especially with two TJ recipients in the rotation, and I think you need to have pitching depth.  Perhaps that's why J.P. is going after Clement.  I wouldn't be surprised if, after getting another pitcher, J.P. makes a trade for a SS.  If the Jays don't get more pitching and trade one of their starter, then having a solid SS would be nice, but the cost might be having Towers fill in instead of Janssen when Burnett goes down.  Not something I would want as a fan.

At any rate, we should have learned by now not to believe what J.P. says.  Of course he's going to say that he's not planning on making any moves.  He'd be foolish to state publicly that he doesn't like McDonald and wants to improve at SS.   I would not be surprised at all if by December 5th Hall, Peralta, or Tejada are in a Jays uniform. 

Let's all complain about J.P. not making any moves when spring training starts.

JP just needs to be creative and a little more daring.  Whether that means trading 1 or 2 of our somewhat promising prospects or not, who knows (that's what he's paid for!).

Also, last season if all 3 of his reclamation projects had panned out (Zambrano, etc) the Jays would've been on the hook for 3 or 4 million +.  Using this line of thinking, I'm wondering if JP is giving serious consideration to Bartolo Colon?  I mean as a Jays fan, I'd feel more confident in giving a ONE guy like Colon (3 or 4 Cy Young caliber years not so long ago) 3 or 4 million for 1 year (+incentives if nec.), than 3 bums 1 million.  At least Colon has a history of successes under his belt.

Unfortunately for us fans, JP has a history of being afraid of "being wrong" on a $3 to $6 million guy (i.e. post-injury Chris Carpenter), but doesn't mind failing with a $1 to $2 million guy (Towers)

I think JP really should be trying to come out of the meetings next week with a MLB ready or near ready SS/3B prospect.  We can get by in 2008 as is, but what about 2009 and 2010?

Sergio Santos and Anthony Hatch are our 3B prospects and remain long shots.  I don't see a prospect at SS ahead of Justin Jackson.

Unfortunately for us fans, JP has a history of being afraid of "being wrong" on a $3 to $6 million guy (i.e. post-injury Chris Carpenter), but doesn't mind failing with a $1 to $2 million guy (Towers)

I agree with this statement.  I would much rather see a signing of a guy like Colon or Clement at +/- 5 million than very silmilar money being tossed around at the likes of Zambrano, Ohka, Towers types. 

If this is a team built around the philosophy that if everything goes right we can compete, than take a shot with a guy like this. 

The Jays are pretty much standing pat this off-season because they have very little choice. They don't have the plethora of prospects like the Yanks and the Red Sox to use as bait for someone like Santana and they don't have the financial committment, like the Yanks and Red Sox, from the owner who happens to be the second richest man in Canada.

The Yanks can afford to trade a Phillip Hughes and two other premium prospects with the knowledge that there is more coming up from the farm or they have the money to go out and get another pitcher. If the Jays trade McGowan plus Snider and someone else for Santana we don't have anyone in the farm system to potentially replace them. Trading for a Santana or a Miguel Cabrera would make our farm system completely bereft of type A prospects.

Not that the owner would cough up the 130 million dollars or whatever it would take to sign Santana to an extension.

This is what kills me as a Jays fan from back in the days. We used to be the major players in MLB. We used to be able to walk with a swagger. Remember Joe Carter and Devon White in the 93 (I think) All Star Game with the Jays symbol shaved into their heads? We were the envy of all the other fans. This team has been completely run into the ground by management and ownership. All we, as Jays fans, can hope for is all our players have career type years AND either the Sox or the Yanks have a bad luck season in 2008. And then maybe we can ban a wild card spot.

I'm just really afraid that JP is going to low ball offer players like Clement and Colon with minor league deals, when he damn well knows it's going to take a MLB deal with a decent guaranteed amount.

YET, he had no problem overpaying Frank Thomas last year without knowing what the market value for him MIGHT have been.

Keith Law's got a chat on ESPN right now, it's free until it's over.  I always find it interesting to see what he says about the Jays:
Mark(Toronto): Keith, hypothetically speaking would a package of Rios, Snider and pitching prospects give the Jays a punchers chance at Santana ? Imagine Halladay, Santana, Burnett and McGowan in a rotation. Who would beat them ?

 Keith Law: (1:07 PM ET ) Everyone would. They'd never score any runs. Besides, the Jays have no pitching prospects to include in such a trade - their best arms are all 2007 draftees who can't be traded yet.

What guaranteed amount is Clement worthy of? He missed all of 2007 and the latter half of 2006. He stunk in the first half of 2006, obviously pitching hurt. And in 2005, his ERA was 4.5, making him a league average pitcher. Could he be another Chris Carpenter? Maybe, but the original Chris Carpenter's comeback was fairly improbable.

I just don't want to see some team scoop up Clement or Colon for $4 to $5 mil for 1 season and have JP accept paying Towers $3 to $3.2mil from arbit.

<i>We were the envy of all the other fans. This team has been completely run into the ground by management and ownership.</i>

No offense, but this is a pretty one-sided view. When the Jays were swaggering and winning World Series, we also posted one of the highest payrolls in baseball. The Jays were a legitimate market location for big name FAs because we had a lot of money.

Following the 1994 strike, and the purchase of Labatts that transferred ownership to Interbrew, the Toronto management got a perfect storm of issues; gate numbers cut in half, viewership cut in half, the CDN dropping to one of the lowest rates against the American dollar, and a resurgent Boston and New York ownership.

Remember, we had that high profile team still in 1995, when the average attendance at the SkyDome dropped 20,000 people a game. We signed big name FAs like Clemens as a draw. Marketed the hell out of homegrown talent like Delgedo, for what? People couldn't be bothered, and Interbrew started to cut costs on a team that wasn't being supported. The Jays have done a lot of stupid things over the last 15 years, but the fans have been particularly fickle as well.

I think Roger's has made a lot of sense in terms of cleaning house financially and trying to grow the brand. Looking at the increase in average attendance, season ticket holders and viewership, they are solidifying and growing the fanbase using the lessons they learned before. Frankly, I'd want a couple of years in the black before I started splashing out cash myself.

Canada is not the closed market for the Jays people think it is, and even if you want to claim all 31 million viewers as exclusively potential Jays supporters on a nationalistic basis, you need to look at the demographics. According to the BBM, 11% of Canadians define themselves as 'baseball fans' vs 48% of Americans. In New York, 58% of New Yorkers consider themselves baseball fans. Even assuming casual fans on a playoff run triple that amount, it's still chasing at most 10M households. The only real luck the Jays have is that Ontario is far and away the largest concentration of self-identified baseball fans.

A financially stable club will always have the potential to complete. Think about it. If Roger's is able to keep the club in the black while supporting a $90-$100M payroll, you can justify splashing out big money because the fan base is resilient enough to support it. That's why Boston and New York can spend the money they do, because they know even their teams implode, Fenway and Yankee Stadium will still sell out every other night of the week. Roger's does not have that evidence, and in fact, has history backing him that the Jays fanbase will not. Better to build a stable team that is competitive into the fall every year than gamble everything on a big blowout that could evaporate the very next year.

YET, he had no problem overpaying Frank Thomas last year without knowing what the market value for him MIGHT have been.

The A's offered Thomas the same per year as the Jays but one less year.

Sorry, I was unaware that the A's offered similar money.

Still, I think the A's & Jays were the only teams that valued him that highly.  Although, a good agent probably would've mentioned those deals if he had to shop around more.

Speaking of a different Clement, I think that the Jays should target Jeff Clement. Now, I don't know what the Jays can offer to get him (the obvious choice would have been Lind for Clement, but the M's outfield is set with Ichiro, Adam Jones, and Ibanez), but Clement is being blocked by Johjima and Lind is likely never to get a decent shot at the LF job. JP has said that Lind is likely to spend most of 2008 in AAA and with Travis Snider probably advancing rapidly through the ranks there's a legit possibility that Lind never plays a major role in the organization. Clement is a lefty bat that the Jays could really use at a position of need.

What I think might be feasible is to try to do a 3 team deal involving Lind, Clement, some bullpen help/pitching prospect (because Clement is worth more), and probably pitching prospect(s) of another team. Obviously that 3rd team would need to have a hole in LF/1B. Maybe the Royals, Padres or Giants. But, the point I'm making is that Lind's value will be squandered, so the team should try to use him to fill a need (whether it is SS or C).

I hope that more "small market" teams follow the Twins/Rays lead in doing the Garza for Young deal. It's an easy way to fill needs without spending buckets of money.

Quote from JP taken from Blue Jay homepage:

"If we can add to it, we will, but I don't see us, at this point, having a chance to do something to upgrade. Probably, what you see is what you get right now."

 JP doesn't see any chance to upgrade?  Good work JP.  Good Work.

On Marcum -

Roy, AJ and Dustin are all basically power type pitchers. Marcum is a right handed throwing control guy. However, Shaun has really excellent results against lefties. His era against righties was 4.03 and just 4.22 against lefties. That's really good. He tired last year - as would be expected late in his first full year starting. He gives up too many homeruns, 23 as a starter in 143 innings.

IM(H)O Shaun is in the very elite of number "four" pitchers and would be an OK number "three" guy on a contender. We're fortunate to have him.

ERA splits - how does that work anyway?  If a righty triples and is brought in by a lefty ground out, who earned the run? 

Shawn has an impressive .259 BAA by LHs (.237 by RHs), but a less than impressive .492 SLG against by LHs (.388 by RHs).

there's no reason for Riccardi to surrender leverage by reversing his stance that he's prepared to enter next year with the 40 men he has now.

Sorry but I disagree. JP needs to get proactive.  He cannot simply sit on his a$$ and hope the phone rings with someone wanting to deal, and hoping that by not initiating the call he has the leverage.  He needs to make the calls and inquiries himself, find out whats available and for what.  IMO He needs to do his job.  To say that he sees no chance of upgrading, means he either has his eyes closed or is simlpy not pursuing any avenues, not particularly the kind of comment you expect from a GM in November, I guess he plans on taking the winter off.

Sorry but I disagree. JP needs to get proactive.  He cannot simply sit on his a$$ and hope the phone rings with someone wanting to deal, and hoping that by not initiating the call he has the leverage. 

I don't think he was saying JP wouldn't be making subtle inquiries about players to his peers - just that he shouldn't be salivating all over the hotel lobby like he was two years ago.

just that he shouldn't be salivating all over the hotel lobby like he was two years ago.

IMO, that was a very good offseason.  Bring on the salivating.

On Marcum (encore) -

As to his "lefty," "righty" stats I used his "splits" from the Jay's site on MLB.COM.

On JP -

JP is doing fine this offseason. He's got Stairs and Marco. A catcher to follow and maybe, if it looks like a reasonable shot, a fifth pitcher to add to the mix. IF he got a REAL shot at a blockbuster - he just might do it. BUT, I can't see him looking for one -  BECAUSE -  as he and I keep saying - this Jay's team should contend in 08 for a playoff spot.

This also doesn't address the fact that there are no good players out there. None

Really?  There may not be a whole heck of a lot out there, but impliying there are no good players is a bit of a stretch.

Im betting Marcum has a lower ERA next year than McGowan any takers.... I can offer up a Manny Ramirez, or Kenny Lofton rookie card as my part of the bet....

as he and I keep saying - this Jay's team should contend in 08 for a playoff spot

Well I guess I have been handed the role of Devil's advocate, but no way does this team contend for a playoff spot in 08.  Way to many variables need to align themselves perfectly in order for this to happen.  Maybe I'm crazy, maybe I'm missing something others are seeing, but I think we are more likely going to be contending for 3rd in the East. 

 I strongly feel that this team as is, is on the cusp of contending but needs to add a couple of pieces to the puzzle. I think now, more than ever in recent years, is not the time to stand pat.

Jdog,

I'll take that bet.  You're nuts.  I won't bet you that McGowan will throw more innings or win more games, but lower ERA?  Name the wager!

My friend Exit - you say:

"Well I guess I have been handed the role of Devil's advocate, but no way does this team contend for a playoff spot in 08.  Way to many variables need to align themselves perfectly in order for this to happen.  Maybe I'm crazy, maybe I'm missing something others are seeing, but I think we are more likely going to be contending for 3rd in the East. "

"Way to many variables need to align..." Not so - all that needs to happen is that we stay healthy. Simple. By the way, it's "too" with two o's.

Actually, there is tiny bit of truth in your statement and that revolves around - Santana. If Boston gets him, it's OK. They are gonna kick butt next year with or without him. HOWEVER, if the Yanks get him that might be a "variable" too much.

You say, "Maybe I'm crazy," personally, I think you're not, could be, as my carpenter firend would say, you're just a half a bubble out of plumb. Crazy is a whole other net full of anchovies.

Mylegacy,

I was thinking the same thing about Santana.  Barring injuries, in my opinion Boston is already the best team in baseball.  Getting Santana just widens the gap for them.  The competition is with the Yankees, Tigers and Indians for the wildcard (and the Twins if they keep Santana).  I see the Jays possibly passing the Yanks this year based on the Yanks' rotation (Wang, old-timer and three rookies), as reports indicate Petitte is leaning toward retirement.  Also, they're lineup is getting old!  They can still mash, but Posada, Abreu, Giambi, Jeter and Damon are all in decline or should start to decline, the same with their closer.  If things stay as they are, I predict the Jays' will be battling for 2nd place and the wildcard with the Yankees and the 2nd place team in the Central.  BUT, if the Yankees net Santana, well, then it would certainly become a lot tougher for our Jays. 

Timinder:

Just a friendly little wager, .....I cant think of anything too interesting but I like the idea of some sort of Baseball Card....if you got something better in mind let me know.

The conditions of the bet would be that each would have to top 100 innings minimum. If one fails to top the 100 innings pitched then the bets off.   I like Dustin and think he will be pretty sick, but i still think he is going to be fairly inconsistent next year and post an ERA around 4.25 or so while I expect Marcum to come in just under 4 . I may be dreaming.  

Jdog,

I don't collect baseball cards, but how about just a fun bet for bragging rights?  Marcum may end up being better, we'll see, but here's why I think McGowan will have an ERA of 75-100 points lower: 

McGowan has a smooth delivery and he's 6' 3", 220 lbs.  Marcum is a generous 6', 180 lbs, and he doesn't seem to generate power through his body like McGowan does, which suggests Marcum may tire and wear down faster.  This may be why McGowan got stronger as the season progressed, and Marcum got worse. 

Their overall ERAs were similar last year (4.08 for McGowan and 4.13 for Marcum), but their peripherals tell a different story  entirely.  In opposition BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and in H9, HR9, K9 and WHIP, McGowan was superior to Marcum.  In some areas, vastly superior.  The only area in which Marcum was superior to McGowan was in BB9 (2.77 vs. 3.24).  McGowan's opposition OPS was 110 points better than Marcums last year.

However, McGowan really struggled for the first few starts after he was called up.  In the second half, McGowan's opposition OPS was 158 points better than Marcum's, and his 3.67 ERA was 101 points better than Marcum's 4.68 ERA!  This is the trend I expect to see continue next year, though I admit I see Marcum as being a little better, somewhere around 4.35 - 4.50 ERA.  To be fair, Marcum holds runners on much better than McGowan and that's something that wasn't taken into account.  But McGowan is just such an overpowering pitcher that even on off days he can survive, while Marcum's stuff can't.

Also, McGowan's inconsistency could be attributed to recovering from TJ surgery followed by pitching with previously undiagnosed Diabetes.  Last year was his first year with diabetes under control and he threw like a #2 starter.  Marcum overachieved, in my opinion.  But that's why it's a bet, we'll revisit this in 10 months!

As far as there are few players on the market or available for a reasonable price, it is time to turn toward the farm system and give it a chance. Keeping Reed Johnson in left field to see if he can re-establish himself is fine because the Jays don't have anyone else (effective) to lead off, and he is fine defensively and can be relegated to being the fourth outfielder if Lind is ready to run away with the position later. However, what is the plan with Thigpen (if is there one)? JP should have learned after the Adams / Hill fiasco that you need to have plans and direction for the players. If JP had followed the near consensus of the Box, then perhaps we would have them up the middle still (I like JMac, too). I think there is a big difference between being flexible and wishy-washy (Just don't ask for a precise definition-whew!). No GM is perfect or cannot be second guessed. I am glad we don't have a GM like Ed Wade. Even Brian Sabean has lost a lot of shine since the last time SF made the playoffs. JP has made some nice trades so far, but he seems to have to dump too many contracts of players that he signed. Furthermore, everyone knows that JP is at a payroll disadvantage. That means he has to sell high on players and find more value. To me, the time is right to trade Burnett if there is a good enough deal (it doesn't have to knock JP's socks off). I would like to see from the Jays' GM more patience for in-house options and to let players establish or re-establish trade value. JP is far too wasteful on the small time players; it adds up over the 25 man roster. Sunk costs are sunk costs but it is still a waste. Although a million here and million there is not a problem for JP, it is for a lot of us, and that is why we talk about even Rule V picks or waiver claims because they all have value. The Jays GM can't seem to understand us about issues like this. Even though the payroll is up to 90 million, it is still only around the middle for MLB teams. To win this division, we need one of the best GMs in baseball. JP you need to spin silk into gold- good luck. 

My "firend" Mylegacy:

Thanks for correcting my grammar.  Nice to know people are looking out for those half a bubble out of plumb.

There is *no* way that Ted Rogers puts this much money into the Jays has he has without thinking it's going to turn him a decent profit. He gets nationwide advertising revenue, has one of the largest television markets in baseball watching the Jays, and inside the RC, attendance is just about league average.

He definitely made money this year, and I don't care what Forbes says.

I don't disagree. However, I doubt he's made more than 7 figures, especially if you count the re-investment into the Rogers Centre. Which is why I argue that him upping the payroll by another $20-30M is not yet merited. The Jays went from an average of over 40,000 fans per game in 1992-1993 to just over 20,000 in 2000. That is an extremely fickle market that you cannot count on to support a Boston/New York level of payroll. If the Jays remain a contention team into the fall over the next several years, and the trend continues, then I'd argue that Rogers is negligent not putting in more money. Right now, it's a business decision I don't like as a fan, but I can't fault from a business perspective.

As for the demographic numbers from the Jays site, I'm extremely skeptical. They don't cite their sources, the year of the study, the metrics, and it's off their corporate site. It could be from 1992 for all we now. I do know that the BBM results are from 2005, directly citing television viewers on baseball. Interestingly enough, from radio listeners, the number of self-described baseball fans amongst Canadians almost doubles, and is much more broadly based across the country. I wonder if there's any information on estimated radio market size and distribution by MLB team out there? 

When considering the profitability of a professional sports franchise, one has to also consider the appreciation in that franchise's value, which doesn't express itself in annual revenues.

Agreed, and I think since Rogers acquired the Jays, the value of the franchise has reversed a significant downward trend and is growing again. I've worked with and for Rogers marketing for years at various points, and they are extremely knowledgable on Canada's regional markets, especially the GTA. So I'm inclined to look at the financial decisions as part of an overall business plan for long term stability and growth, as opposed to calling out the ownership on being cheap. I could be wrong and it is just Ted seeing how much he can wring out of the ballclub before turning it over, but I personally doubt it.

Jdog,

You don't think a pitcher's frame contributes to how their bodies will hold up to the strain of pitching?  Seriously? 

I found it interesting that Ricciardi did not mention Litsch when talking about the rotation in 2008. 

Lo Duca anyone?

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071129.wspt-jays-meetings29/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

On the subject of pitcher size, it is noteworthy that scouts tend to shy away from pitchers under six feet tall (this is why so many 5'10" pitchers are listed at 6'). Certainly there are exceptions of smaller pitchers succeeding -- one who is generously listed at 6' tall is looking at $150M in the very near future -- and very likely there is too much discrimination against shorter pitchers, but there is more than a kernel of truth to the notion that the horses stand a better chance at succeeding.

Casual fans, and I'm not levelling that description at anyone here, tend to be surprised at just how big major league pitchers are. They get a sense of how big some hitters are because they seem them contrasted to the catcher and umpire. But that frame of reference doesn't exist for pitchers. The Jays' rotation is anchored by Halladay, Burnett and McGowan who are 6'6", 6'5" and 6'3", respectively. I'm sure it would surprise more than a few people to learn that Halladay is as tall as Michael Jordan.

Timinder,

It has a little effect I am sure, but definitely not much of an affect on a season in their middle 20's.  Mechanics and genetics has a lot more to do with durability than height and weight.

Well Jdog, we'll agree to disagree I suppose.  We'll revisit this in about ten months when one of us will post a gloating message!

Speaking of predictions and wagers, what ever happened with that competion prior to the start of the 2007 where Bauxites were invited to predict the playoff teams, award winners, etc...?  Has a winner been determined?