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The draft starts at 2 pm today. The Jays pick should come around 2:45-3:00.


Bob Elliot seems fairly certain that the Reds will be taking Canadian Brett Lawrie at #7. In the same article he mentions that the Jays are interested in a college bat, with the usual suspects named, with Ike Davis and David Cooper as fall backs. And in a bigger surprise Elliot has Eric Hosmer going first overall to the Rays as apparently Buster Posey is asking for HUGE money.

Most mock drafts lately have Brett Wallace falling to the Jays.
To me this is the best case (reasonable) scenario for the Jays. Wallace isn't going to win any beauty contests, but if you can get a guy who is one of the top bats at 17 you should be pretty happy.

Baseball America still doesn't have their mock draft up. If you wait to the very last minute it's not as impressive to get it right!

At this point my odds on the Jays pick are:
  • Brett Wallace - 50%
  • Ike Davis - 20%
  • Yonder Alonso - 10%
  • Other - 20% (Hunt, Gillaspie, Cooper, Lawrie, mystery)
For Wallace to get to the Jays they'll need several HS players and/or college closers to go in the 10-16 range. It sounds like that's the likely scenario, but it only takes one team (or agents) to screw things up.

Feel free to use this thread for general, or Jays, draft items. We'll have a thread for the Jays picks as they come.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#186555) #
Anyone believe in omens?  This morning, there was a young blue jay perched on a branch outside my kitchen window as I ate my breakfast.  On my neighbours fence, there was a cardinal.  I see a blue jay in the back maybe once every couple of years, and a cardinal somewhat more often, but I have never seen both on the same day there, let alone at the same time.

Does this mean that Brett Lawrie falls to #17? 

Brent S - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#186559) #

Strange. Right before I came here, I stopped by Jonathon Mayo's MLB draft blog. He posted an item last night detailing that the Reds were going to take Gordon Beckham with the 7th pick. This is what is so exciting about draft day!

A couple years ago, after Craig posted his adjusted college stats (which I loved, by the way) that had Chip Cannon ranked #2, I started the "Draft Chip" movement. This year, I'm going with another seemingly random pick: HS 1B D.J. Hicks. At the very least, this year, I'll settle for a "D.J.: don't get drafted by the Red Sox or Yankees" movement.

For the record, I'll be pretty happy with Wallace. With him, Wells and Snider, we might have the bad-body all-stars in a few years.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#186560) #
Isn't there something in JP's contract that requires him to pick up an initialed player each year?  That could bode well for Hicks as I think JP forgot about that over the offseason.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#186561) #
What with globalization and all, I wonder if the Beckhams will be nicknamed "G-Becks" and "T-Becks".  The names don't quite have the raw masculine power of A-Rod and I-Rod...

DJ Hicks sounds good. 

Maldoff - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#186562) #

I'm hoping for a late round pick to be spent on Pat Venditte from Creighton....the one-man bullpen!

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070518&content_id=1971888&vkey=draft2007&fext=.jsp

braden - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#186564) #

The final BA mock draft has Ike Davis coming to Toronto.  They have Lawrie going to Milwaukee one selection before the Jays.

They also have Posey falling to Florida at #6.

Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#186566) #
Mike Green - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#186568) #
Unless I'm missing something, Ike Davis is statistically quite far behind Cooper once the adjustments are made.  Cooper seems to have more power and strikes out much less.  Can someone make the case for picking Davis over Cooper?
Brent S - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#186569) #

Law's (Free) Insider MLB mock draft: here. He has Wallace slipping to the Jays. Music to my ears (eyes?).  As backups, he said he has heard about Cashner, Cooper and Lawrie.

The most interesting tidbit is Law putting Lawrie at 26 to Arizona. I think that's pretty crazy, but this is a crazy day. It also seems like there's some steam behind Weeks going at 12 to the A's.

Also, Law's line of the day regarding the Milwaukee: "The Brewers never tell anyone what they're doing; they won't even confirm that there's a draft on Thursday."

Marc Hulet - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#186571) #
I wrote at Baseball Analyst that my least favourite pick amongst the college first base options was Ike Davis. I might literally puke if the Jays pick him... I HATE it when players get picked solely on ONE excellent season despite mediocre performances beforehand.

As you probably already know by now, the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft is absolutely stacked with powerful college first basemen. Letís take a closer look at some of their numbers:

Stats: AVG/OBP/SLG | AB | HR | RBI | BB-K

Justin Smoak, University of South Carolina
2006: .303/.407/.586 | 244 | 17 | 63 | 40-39
2007: .315/.434/.631 | 260 | 22 | 72 | 54-40
2008: .383/.505/.757 | 235 | 23 | 72 | 57-28

Yonder Alonso, University of Miami
2006: .295/.373/.492 | 244 | 10 | 69 | 32-37
2007: .376/.519/.705 | 210 | 18 | 74 | 64-31
2008: .370/.536/.767 | 189 | 21 | 66 | 69-30

Brett Wallace, Arizona State University
2006: .371/.439/.583 | 151 | 07 | 32 | 17-26
2007: .404/.484/.687 | 265 | 17 | 78 | 38-38
2008: .414/.531/.762 | 227 | 21 | 81 | 45-31

Allan Dykstra, Wake Forest University
2006: .324/.479/.670 | 185 | 15 | 56 | 51-32
2007: .310/.479/.615 | 226 | 18 | 60 | 57-33
2008: .323/.519/.645 | 186 | 16 | 50 | 62-45

David Cooper, University of California
2006: .305/.337/.404 | 151 | 02 | 37 | 09-18
2007: .382/.450/.627 | 204 | 12 | 55 | 30-21
2008: .359/.449/.682 | 220 | 19 | 55 | 37-35

Ike Davis, Arizona State University
2006: .329/.387/.542 | 240 | 09 | 65 | 20-58
2007: .349/.407/.546 | 238 | 08 | 61 | 29-39
2008: .394/.468/.778 | 198 | 16 | 73 | 30-31

Iíd be pretty happy to snag just about any one of those guys with a mid-to-late first round pick. I am going to go out on a limb and say that Allan Dykstra is the most underrated of the six players and surprise a lot of people with his immediate success. I am also going to say that Ike Davis will be the biggest disappointment of the six. Of the "Big Three," I'll take Yonder Alonso over Brett Wallace and Justin Smoak. How about you? Who do you like the best from a statistical standpoint?

Mick Doherty - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#186572) #

Well, I like Justin Smoak solely because that's one of the damcoolest names ever  ...

  • "How'd your draft end up?"
  • "Justin Smoak."
Helpmates - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#186573) #

Smoak sounds like he's going to be a monster, but there's no way in the world that he falls to the Jays.  I mean, the ultimate would be to snag Hosmer, but that's a pipe dream.  Have the Jays ever grappled with a Boras client?

In any event, I maintain an affinity for Dykstra, but he's of the extreme dark horse variety.  BA seems to think that we'll take Davis, but I'm inherently wary of him.  David Cooper sounds like more of a professional hitter, perhaps with a lower ceiling.  We drafted Wallace once, so perhaps the Jays brass would covet another shot at him.  Alonso would probably get to the majors the quickest.  I used to think Adam Lind would be the long-term solution at first for us, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.  Who knows, maybe Lawrie will fall to us.

GoJays77 - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#186574) #
I like Smoak best of all as the University of South Carolina is a pitching park. I think Allan Dykstra will be the best value somewhere in the sandwich or the second round because he's not too far behind the other guys but I don't think he's better than anybody else. I think ti's OK that Ike didn't set the world on fire his first two years, it's not like he played particularly poorly and he did improve. Unfortunately, unlike the big three and Dykstra, Cooper and Davis aren't OBP monsters and are probably the two most likely to be the Jays' pick at this point. One thing about Davis I like is that he could play the OF, but I think that should only be a tiebreaker and if the Jays are convinced the that Cooper is the better bet to mash then they should go that way.

Alonso and Wallace are very close for me. Both play their home games in hitting parks and have similar production. Alonso takes more walks while Wallace is a better pure hitter. Alonso struggled with lefties this year and Wallace is a little more athletic, so that might sway me in that regard but I'm definitely hoping for one of those two (or Smoak obviously) ahead of Davis or Cooper. Unfortunately, doesn't look like it's going to happen but there's nothing to do now but wait and see.

parrot11 - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#186575) #
Smoak has a pretty nice swing. I have a feeling that he'll be the 2nd best player in this draft. As for you're disinterest in Davis, Marc I'm thinking along the same lines.
Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#186577) #
I agree on Ike Davis.... I've had a bad feel on him for awhile, and maybe it was the big junior year SLG jump.

Maybe a month ago someone translated college numbers and David Cooper ended up being ahead of a few players that were otherwise rated higher by most.

Maldoff - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#186579) #
Pistol, any chance you could link that analysis for us? I love seeing those sort of comps.
Brent S - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#186580) #
Pistol, who published those adjusted numbers?
GoJays77 - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#186581) #
That would be over at Project Prospect where Adam Foster's work ranked Cooper fifth. A link can be found here.

Wallace actually ranked 9th on that list, behind Davis who was 6th (he was not particularly close to Cooper). Davis' numbers have tailed off since then so I'm sure he's slipped down. The PF for ASU is 118, Miami is 109, California is 81, South Carolina is 85.

Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#186587) #
The Rays apparently confirmed that Tim Beckham is their choice.

Even without the apparent Posey signing demands I like the choice of Beckham over Posey.

parrot11 - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#186588) #
Me too. I just think that Beckham is the better player by a considerable margin. Personally, if I were the Rays, I would have taken either Pedro Alvarez or Justin Smoak. I think that both guys have a good chance (barring injury) to be a middle of the lineup bat and if anything you can always use Carlos Pena as either trade bait or DH. But Beckham is not bad either.
seeyou - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#186597) #
Jonathan Mayo is 6/6 in his predictions at MLB.com so far, increasing my hope that Wallace will fall to us.
Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#186599) #
Too bad you can't trade picks.  I'd love for the Jays to move up and get Smoak now that he's not in the top 9.
Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#186600) #
Castro to the Astros at 10... first big surprise of the day.

Good news for the Jays - I can't imagine they were considering him.

S P - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#186602) #
Wow, could we have a chance at Wallace or Smoak? I'm surprised they're falling. I'm sure Texas, coming up, will pick one of them and probably Oakland will take the other.
Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#186603) #
Weeks to the A's was a legit rumor.  More good Jay news there.
Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#186604) #
So much for Wallace - to the Cards at 13.
seeyou - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#186605) #
Wallace off the board, going to Cardinals at 13.

Crossing my fingers that Lawrie makes it to us now.

S P - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#186606) #
Crap, I wanted Hicks to fall to the Jays. And did I just hear a Darryl Strawberry comparison?
Mudie - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#186607) #

Aaron Hick to MIN and with the next two teams having a recent history of drafting canucks we might see Lawrie go before 17

Marc Hulet - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#186608) #
In my opinion Lawrie is the only guy I'm still interested in in the first round... Anything else will be very disappointing, but he's not getting past Milwaukee.
Mick Doherty - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#186609) #

Smoak to the Rangers? Scott Lucas, formerly of Da Box and now Jamey Newberg's #2 man, didn't even include him in the Ranger Draft Preview, he was so sure he wouldn't be around.

I think Jon-Boy Daniels just got real lucky!

Mudie - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#186610) #

The brewers go with Lawrie at 16, options for the jays are pretty dull at this point; Shooter Hunt,Christian Friedrich, Ike Davis, Josh Fields; who do you take?

Mudie - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#186611) #
David Cooper 1B at 17 not a bad pick  but certainly not sexy
Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#186613) #
Friedrich and Hunt are both available.... I wouldn't have guessed that with teams always looking for starters.
Helpmates - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#186615) #
Yeah, not sexy, but who knows, maybe he'll turn out to be Olerud-lite.  Oh, we were so close to Lawrie.  Damn you, Milwaukee Brewers, damn you to the hot spot!
S P - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#186633) #
Gord Ash screws the Jays again. I don't mind the Cooper pick though considering the Jays' bad luck--none of the big names dropped as we were hoping. I've heard he has somewhere around 25-35 HR power so I'll take that from a generally weak draft.
Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#186635) #
We're back to the fast-paced draft.  Doesn't look like anyone has really slipped.

I personally like pitchers Tim Murphy and Chris Carpenter with the next pick.  We'll see if they're around.

Mylegacy - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#186636) #
I was so disappointed about missing Lawrie that Cooper disappointed me. However, I'm warming to him. Seriously, I expect him to be very similar as a hitter to Overbay except with better power but not as good defensively. With Snider, Arencibia, Cooper and possibly Patterson the Jays have four guys in the minors that look like they can rake with power - still have hope for Lind as well.
Pistol - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#186639) #
So much for the fast draft.... break until 6:15.

I'm much preferring the non-televised draft.....we'd be 7 rounds in by now!

Sneeps - Thursday, June 05 2008 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#186642) #
Whoa i thought today's draft was supposed to conclude at 6pm.  It's 10 to, and we haven't started round 2 yet.  what's goin on here?
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