Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 30 September: Coaches Return

The Jays bring back all the coaches for 2 more years and the White Sox force a one game playoff with the Twins to be played at 7:30 tonight in Chicago.

Any other news? The Japanese League is still in its regular season.

Posted by John Northey on Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 12:26 PM EDT.

30 September: Coaches Return | 80 comments | Create New Account

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Mylegacy - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#192964) #

Good news on the coaches. I like the coaching "team."

Just musing. Rolen - one shoulder, but seems to be learning how to at least survive with it. Really hard to predict what he does next year though. My gut feeling is 270(ish)/340(ish)/465(ish) with 21 homers. We can't get rid of him. Can we live with that line? Got no choice. At least it's a bit better than this year maybe even a tick better than that.

Overbay - still complaining about the hand. It's over 2 years since I broke two fingers on my left hand - still not really right. He's going to spend the winter doing special rehab on it. He could come back at 275(ish)/340(ish)/420(ish) with 17 homers. Can we live with it? Got no choice. But - it's a tick better than this year.

Wells - Horse or donkey? Whatever he'll put up will be good for a CFer .

Lind - scary late season swoon. Not sold on the guy. But I desperately think we need him. If we are in it next year he'll be a big reason if we're not - he'll be a big reason.

Snider - kid. Lots of upside but realistically not for another 3 or 4 years. He'll be a monster but only a bit better than average (if that even) for the next few years. Remember the kid will only be 21 next year. Picture him at 26 to 30. Those are the years we may lose him by having brought him up this early. Sigh.

SS - we can survive - if we have to.

Catcher - Rod + someone till JP Arencibia and then Collins and then Talley and then ...

A NEW big scary bat? OK. OR - a big scary RH bat and LH bat that can split DH. Gonna happen? Not so sure.

Next year? Offense is up - but enough? Tell you next October.

Impossibles - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#192965) #

I'm really glad Arnsberg is signed. I was getting worried about him getting lured away to another team. Lucky for us, he seems the type that is loyal to a fault, and wants to keep working with the players he's developed over the last few years.

Matthew E - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#192966) #

I just saw an item about the Jays receiving Fabio Castro to complete the Stairs trade.

Is Toronto trying to corner the market on lefthanded pitching? There's Ryan, Downs, Tallet, Carlson, Purcey, Parrish, Chacin if we want to mention him, Romero, Romero, Cecil, Matumoto, Reid Santos, and now Castro. It's almost an entire staff of lefthanded pitchers.

The_Game - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#192967) #

We certainly have a choice. Lyle put up a .865 OPS agaisnt righties, even with his massive slump to end the season. His relative lack of production stems from a horrid .540 OPS agaisnt lefties. The solution is to platoon him.

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#192969) #

Worst case, Jose Bautista has 3-year splits of 858 OPS against lefties (269/385/473)..

In 2008: 885 OPS VL (versus lefties), 648 OPS VR. 9 HR in 109 AB VL. 6 in 262 VR

Ok, his defense may suck, but he's not that bad against lefties. As long as he doesn't go all Kevin Mench on us (hits lefties well until we ask him to hit lefties...)

How many lefties did we face this year, anyway?

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#192970) #

Sample size. Overbay had a significant reverse platoon differential in 07, and has a typical platoon differential over his career. When you take into account defence, he's about average for a first baseman in the AL. We tend to forget, but he did have a better season than Adam Lind by the time it was over.

The easiest way for the club to improve is to get better production over the year out of the DH and LF slots, via development from Lind (and perhaps Snider) and an acquisition or two.

MatO - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#192971) #

Another SS option has opened up as Renteria will not have his $12M option picked up by the Tigers..

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#192972) #

I wonder what are reasonable offensive expectations for Renteria. During the last four seasons, he has hit like Alan Trammell for two seasons in the National League and like Marco Scutaro for two years in the American League. Given his age and the league differences, I'd mark him down for a 92 OPS+ in the AL. He was an average defensive shortstop the last few years. All in all, he's a little better than Scutaro, but not much.

MatO - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#192973) #

The Hawaiian Winter League is up and running. The Jays are represented by Eric Eiland and Brad Emaus. No pitchers. Pitcher Andrew Brackman, who was the Yankees 1st pick from the 2007 draft despite needing TJ surgery, had his 1st professional start but got roughed up pretty good.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#192974) #

When it comes to shortstop I think the biggest factor is what JP thinks of Scutaro's defense. Marco is an 86 lifetime OPS+ guy who had an 86 OPS+ last season. IE: what you see is what you get. However, he and McDonald will both be past 32 next year which means a decline from both is almost assured.

I'd really, really, really like the Jays to get someone for shortstop who is late 20's and a 90 OPS+ with league average defense. Renteria is tempting with his 96 OPS+ lifetime and an RZR of around 800-830 (decent, nothing special). However, he will be 33 next year and could cost $10 million next year depending on the SS market (which looks weak). An upgrade on Scutaro and McDonald, but not a major one unless he hits like he did in '06/07 & 02/03 (over 100 OPS+, 360-390 OBP and 430+ Slg%).

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#192975) #

Matthew: the LHP thing is a bit weird, but I don't think it's a deliberate strategy. JP is probably just looking for value where he can find it (and apparently succeeding, at least on the pitching side).

You can add Brad Mills and Tim Collins to the list of lefties in the system.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#192977) #

Now that the regular season is done for both of them...

Wins per year since 2003 - the year Dombrowski hired by the Tigers (#1 choice of media personalities everywhere).

Tigers - 43-72-71-95-88-74
Jays   - 86-67-80-87-83-86

Over 500 seasons - Jays=4, Tigers 2. So, outside of the year the Tigers won 8 more games and got the wild card the Tigers record is, lets say, less than impressive. Despite having payrolls far higher than the Jays.

Payroll in millions (rounded to nearest million) via Cot's

Tigers - $49, $47, $69, $83, $95, $138
Jays   - $51, $50, $46, $71, $82,  $98

Just figured it was worth checking again as the 'HOF candidate' Elliot and Griffin go about their 'Jays suck, need new management, why didn't we get a great GM' bits. Of course, Dombrowski does have one playoff appearance thanks to having everything pretty much go right in one season. Darn that JP for not having that happen yet!

Flex - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#192978) #

That's a valuable comparison, John, thanks. I was off Ricciardi for a while, probably due to his abrasive personality, but I'm coming around to the notion that he's been seated at a pretty tough table and he's playing his cards about as well as he could.

And by the way, John, I have to say your posts are a great addition to this site. When I see your name I always sit up in my chair and take note.

brent - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#192979) #

Agreed about Dombrowski. He is also hamstrung by contracts now. The left handed pitching thing is deliberate because you need left handers and right handed power pitchers to survive in the AL East. It is also much easier to find a lefty than to find power pitchers. For the record, I think the Jays better second half was due more to getting Stairs, Eckstein, Stewart and Mencherson out of the lineup. This was definitely addition by subtraction.

The_Game - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#192981) #

You're willing to risk an entire season's production at 1B due to a small sample size? He's got a .728 OPS agaisnt lefties in his career. Not as horrible as '08, but hardly good. I'll take my lefty masher and move on.

Chuck - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#192982) #

How many lefties did we face this year, anyway?

As per BBRef, PA vs RHP/LHP: 4616/1575, a 3:1 ratio. The OPS split was 743/695.

The left handed pitching thing is deliberate because you need left handers and right handed power pitchers to survive in the AL East.

What's the basis of this assertion?

John Northey - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#192983) #

Always remember when it comes to platoon splits they are very unpredictable season-to-season unless there is a strong reason for the split (ie: switch hitter who always hit from a particular side then became a switch hitter will normally have a few years of adjustment) and even then it tends to even out over a career. Platoons can work, but you need them to be within eyeshot of each other offensively pre-platoon.

As a rule, in the long term, they are similar for all players. Well, iirc lefties have a bigger one than righties but outside of that there isn't much there (that difference is probably due to the low number of LHP guys will see over their careers, thus not as much practice against them).

Thus don't get too caught up in platoon spreads for individual players as it really doesn't mean anymore than clutch hitting or a team playing above/below what it should be at based on runs for/against. Luck is a big thing in small sample sizes and MLB is covered in small sample sizes.

As to the idea of getting a right handed hitter, if the Jays can find one who can reasonably be expected to (overall) hit within 10% (I think that is the traditional platoon spread) of Lind/Snider/Overbay then I'd say he'd be a good addition to the team as a mix and match with those 3, providing time off for all 3 and maximizing the teams odds of winning during those games. Bautista isn't that player though with his lifetime 88 OPS+ - we'd want a guy at least with a 100 OPS+ for this role. Mench has exactly that (100 OPS+ lifetime) but for 3 years has been 90 or worse so I wouldn't go with him (maybe signed to a AAA deal he'd be useful, but no more than that).

Note: Pitchers can have bigger, and more predictable, spreads than hitters do due to style (sidearm pitchers always have extreme splits, screwball pitchers very small or reverse splits for example).

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#192984) #

The Jays have had players who would make useful right-handed parts of a platoon. Jayson Werth and Reed Johnson spring to mind immediately. Sigh.

Wildrose - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#192985) #

Regarding Dombrowski you have to look at what each respective G.M. inherited to have a more complete story. The winning % of the Tigers in the six years prior to Dombrowski was .422, the six years prior to Ricciardi .499. J.P. Ricciardi inherited a much more healthy franchise than Dombrowski.

Getting into the post season every once in a while certainly silences the critics. I get the feeling Rogers is happy to steer a steady course over several years , rather than make a concerted play-off push as the Brewers did this past season .

92-93 - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#192986) #

If Renteria doesn't get any good offers and it's getting late and he can be had on a cheap, one year deal like Eckstein I'm sure JP will consider it. Otherwise he isn't worth the money it will take.

And for the record, I really don't like this idea of Snider breaking camp as a regular. This team needs to sign a DH badly, or it will be more of the same flaccid offense next year. Snider will get his 100 games as he'd essentially be backing up an injury to Rios Wells Lind Overbay and the DH. Relying on Lind and Snider is not an option if you intend on contending (and that would mean keeping Burnett or signing something resembling a #2).

Glevin - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#192988) #

"Regarding Dombrowski you have to look at what each respective G.M. inherited to have a more complete story. The winning % of the Tigers in the six years prior to Dombrowski was .422, the six years prior to Ricciardi .499. J.P. Ricciardi inherited a much more healthy franchise than Dombrowski."

When Dombrowski took over, the Tigers had virtually no talent and a poor system. Their lineup was filled with guys like Truby, Halter. Wendall Magee, and their two top pitchers were Steve Sparks and Mark Redmand. Their MVP that year was either Juan Acevedo or Randall Simon. Beyond that, nobody on that roster would go on to have a great career. By far the best was Carlos Pena who didn't do anything for another 5 years. The Tigers used 30 pitchers that year. The best rest of career? Jeff Weaver? Rodney? Their best young players were guys like Omar Infante who would develop into OK backups. There were zero stars, zero very good playeds, zero good young players. When J.P took over the Jays had a fair bit of talent and their core was already arriving The Jays had on their roster a tonne of players who would be good for years to come...Delgado, Stewart, Halladay, Carpenter, Wells, Escobar, etc.. Dombrowski had to rebuild an entire organization and he'd still be the guy I'd take to do it. (He should fire Leyland though who looks confused and overmatched) The two situations are not even remotely comparable.

The_Game - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#192991) #

Why not Josh Phelps? He won't cost anything.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#192992) #

Phelps is one of those guys you wonder why he doesn't get more chances.

291/373/568 in AAA (it was the PCL though) with lifetime AAA numbers of 295/366/573. His major league numbers are 273/343/472 for a 110 OPS+ over 1552 PA's but he got just 36 PA this year after hitting 306/399/503 for a 135 over 183 PA's last year as a backup 1B and emergency catcher (4 times).

I'd sign him in a moment as the backup 1B/DH to be used almost exclusively vs LHP to give Overbay/Snider/Lind days off.

jerjapan - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#192995) #

Dombrowski had to rebuild an entire organization and he'd still be the guy I'd take to do it. (He should fire Leyland though who looks confused and overmatched) The two situations are not even remotely comparable.

Agreed. Dombrowski's got the playoffs and the rebuild from scratch feathers in his cap. While Riccardi may not be quite as bad as some (myself included) have made him out to be, I will never, ever understand the love for the man found on this site (and with Godfrey gone, I'm guessing this site only).

Jays2010 - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#192996) #

If the Jays do decide to go with Lind/Snider/Overbay as their LF/DH/1B respecitively, one RH batter I would like to see them sign is Juan Rivera. He has never had as many at bats as he deserves due to organizational depth. He has around an .800 career OPS and seems to hit righties and lefties fairly equally (though he hit lefties at a .970 clip in his career 2006 season). I honestly think he could end up being Vernon Wells light for us (offensively), and that's not bad.

SheldonL - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#192998) #

I like the idea of signing Juan Rivera.
He's sorta like a Ryan Ludwick guy. He was a pretty heady prospect a few years ago with the yanks and Expos, but he never really got a chance until 2006 when he put up great power numbers for about 4/5 of a season.
He had the bad luck of suffering a broken leg in winter league ball after that season, and the silly Angels decide to replace his bat with the "sensational' Gary Mathews Jr. (!?).

I think that he could be a very serviceable righty bat on days when Lind and Snider are facing lefties. This way, neither prospect is in a strict platoon situation and they both get a shot at 500 AB's.

Hell, we could put him in a strict platoon with Overbay at first!

John Northey - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#192999) #

Rivera is interesting. Turns 30 next year, hit 246/282/438 for an 87 OPS+ in '08 for the Angels. With a good hitting coach he should be able to get that OBP back close to his career average 331 at which point he becomes valuable. He can play all 3 outfield positions, but I suspect his CF is not the best. This was his first season fully back from that broken leg.

Definitely a guy worth looking at. Scouts would be handy in judging if he had a clear problem this year that could easily be corrected, or that he is in the process of correcting. He hit great in July and September but poorly from April-June (recovery time, very limited playing time) and in August.

Glevin - Tuesday, September 30 2008 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#193000) #

"I think that he could be a very serviceable righty bat on days when Lind and Snider are facing lefties. This way, neither prospect is in a strict platoon situation and they both get a shot at 500 AB's."

I think Rivera is great value too, but I doubt he'd even think about going somewhere where he is going to be just a platoon DH when he could go somewhere where he has a shot of playing everyday. If they start with Snider down, Rivera could make a good signing.

Jays2010 - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#193001) #

If they start with Snider down, Rivera could make a good signing.

This could very well happen and even when Snider comes up you could basically have 6 players getting the majority of the playing time at 5 positions (OF/1B/DH) which should keep everyone happy. And there are always going to be injuries. I am still dreaming of Manny or even Delgado (with Overbay or even Lind gone) because the offense still features a bunch of complimentary hitters (aside from Wells and hopefully Rios); as much as I like Rivera I think it would be foolish to count on his 2006 numbers to repeat (though I would not be surprised if they did with 400+ AB's).

On another note, I noticed that up until this year Delgado had hit awful at Shea. Not that he is necessarily available, but I certainly think Delgado in Toronto could put up between an .850-.900 OPS even at this stage of his career. A Ryan (and maybe Overbay) for Delgado swap could make sense and if it were Delgado for Ryan and Overbay, perhaps JP could entice the Mets by eating $5 million of salary so the Mets are, in essence, paying $12 million for Ryan and Overbay instead of Delgado.

JP also mentioned to Wilner that he may be willing to trade for pitching if Burnett does not sign; he also made it clear that he prefers moving hitting prospects over pitching prospects; I think there is a very good chance that Lind is dangled now that he has some value (since Overbay has little trade value and Snider isn't going anywhere). At least for once JP seems willing to be active (which he hasn't been since acquiring 5 players before the 2006 season).

Wildrose - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 01:32 AM EDT (#193002) #

Here's the Wilner blog where he discusses the potential moving of Lind.

To me, that means that at the very least Adam Lind is available, but the Jays want a bunch back for him. Lind has more trade value than Vernon Wells, and may have more than Alex Rios because of his contract/service time status, but not as much as Travis Snider

Mylegacy - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 01:47 AM EDT (#193003) #

Come spring they should look at Ryan Patterson - Ryan KILLS lefties - for average and power - has at every level. He was at AA in 08.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#193004) #

If you can get a top talent or two for Lind then I say go for it.

Lind has two seasons in a row now with over 300 PA's. During his stays in the majors he mainly played everyday. His OPS+ those years are 77 and 98. That is not the sign of a future star, that is a future backup. Yes, he is turning just 25 and might become a star still, but the raw stats do not impress. Now, his OPS at each level has improved (840-862-900-931 from A-,A+,AA,AAA respectively) thus there is a belief he could improve but... when I see stats like he has produced so far in the majors I have trouble seeing a star. A solid regular? Perhaps. A star? No.

I've dug into ML numbers before and as a rule once a player has a full season or two that is it. What you see is what you get. Now, Lind hasn't has a full 500 AB season in the majors yet so maybe with a job from day one he climbs the ladder. However, if someone wants to give the Jays a potential star for a solid Lind then I say go for it and sign a free agent DH leaving Snider in LF, ideally with a RH backup.

SheldonL - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#193005) #

I don't think we should be knocking Lind as nothing but a backup.

We forget that he has yet to hit a full season as a regular in the bigs. That being said, I think we should certainly be trying to package him, B.J Ryan for a very good starting pitcher (and if that fails for a big hitter).

I like the idea of B.J and Overbay for Delgado.
I think that the Mets are coming off two failed seasons(personally, I think finishing the season 1 game back of the playoffs in both seasons is pretty good, but oh well, chalk it up to public perception!), and they're looking to upgrade their team for next year.
They're likely to big players for a top closer since Wagner's final year is washed out because of Tommy John surgery. Moreover, I don't think Minaya's sold on Delgado. Yes, he had a great second half but his first half and his 2007 season were utter disappointments.
Minaya might think that Delgado is over the hill because let's be honest, he's not the hitter he was in Toronto where he practically guaranteed 40 homers, 100 walks, 100 runs, 100 RBI's (although we weren't sure if we getting a .300+ avg or a .275, but this point is moot due to the level of production).

I think Minaya might want to pursue Teixeira so we should definitely get in touch with him and agree to deal B.J Ryan and Overbay for Delgado as a plan B. And if they do get Teixeira, he either cuts Delgado loose by not picking up the option or we can work out a way to do the option and deal B.J Ryan for Delgado straight up because quite frankly, the FA options at closer are far lesser than Ryan.

Chuck - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#193006) #

Yes, he is turning just 25 and might become a star still, but the raw stats do not impress.

Not to nit pick John, but he turned 25 in July. Next year will be his age 25/26 season (though technically considered his age-25 season by virtue of his age on July 1). This all may smack of pedantry, but he may be even closer to his theoretical peak than you already think.

Chuck - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#193007) #

I don't think Minaya's sold on Delgado... Minaya might think that Delgado is over the hill... I think Minaya might want to pursue Teixeira

Given Delgago's amazing resurgence in the second half, I am highly doubtful that Minaya sees Delgado as over the hill. And while Minaya may have the resources to pursue Teixera, I would imagine that pitching will be at the top of his off-season shopping list. Free agent SPs Perez and Martinez started a third of the team's games. Their closer is gone for 2009. The rest of the bullpen was not very good. And after pitching, there are issues at corner OF (no LF, a concussed RF) and 2B.

I'm not entirely clear on Delgado's contract status for 2009. Cots reports a 16MM vesting option which I have heard nothing about. There is a 12MM club option (which I have heard people speak of as a mutual option) and a 4MM buyout. I can't fathom a scenario where Delgado isn't brought back for one more year and the first base situation shelved until 2010, after other, more pressing issues have been dealt with.

the FA options at closer are far lesser than Ryan

Except for the guy with all those saves in California.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#193008) #

Good point Chuck. I'm bad for just taking the age from the year column in Baseball-Reference. Given Lind is an 'old 25' next year his potential is a bit lower than otherwise expected. Still, he is very cheap and at peak could reach 120 for OPS+ for a couple of years and that peak is covered in his arbitration/final 2 pre-arbitration years.

I wouldn't dump Lind by any means. However, for a high level near the majors prospect? You bet I'd trade him.

The Mets are an interesting group. They would be desperate for change this winter given the two 'close but no cigar' years they just had and their GM is known for trading prospects. Sadly, I didn't see any top SS prospects in AA/AAA and no way they are trading their ML one. They have a hot CF prospect who is 19 and in AA in Fernando Martinez but I can't imagine they are crazy enough to trade him for Lind (a 20 year old in CF, 21 in LF...now that is setting up the OF for the loooong term). Starting pitching was weak for them so I doubt they'll trade pitching prospects who are close.

Wildrose - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#193009) #

I thought this was a pretty good story on Godfrey and some potential replacements.

And since Ted's life story alleges a roughly $300 million loss on the Blue Jays over the years, we have a new front-runner for the Giller Prize for fiction.

After reading a variety of stories it's hard to determine if Godfrey quit out of frustration, age or was pushed. Certainly the general opinion seems to be that the Rogers corporation is pre-occupied with obtaining an N.F.L. franchise and the Blue Jays are an afterthought. I've always felt that this team punches below it's weight in terms of market share. This is one of only 4 teams I believe, to ever have gone over the 4 million mark in attendance. During the ten game aborted play-off push, television numbers sky rocketed to the 600,000 game mark from the 300,000 area. I don't think they can ever regain the past glories of 92/93, but if they were ever a legitimate play-off type team I think the casual fans would come back in droves.

The problem as I see it, is that they have a disengaged owner. Godfrey mentioned in one article that not once during his tenure did Rogers ever attend a meeting about what the teams budget would be. Yes, I know in a large publicly traded corporation there is a chain of command, but this lack of involvement surprised me. Ted Rogers seems more interested in flogging his new book and planning for his succession than putting a winning Blue Jay team on the field.

Wildrose - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#193010) #

At any rate, Perkins mentions some replacements for Godfrey in the side bar.

Beeston: Obviously should be the main candidate as he's done the job before and has had massive success. You get the sense however that he's being coy, why do it if the team is not going to plough the necessary resources into the franchise. Not a Rogers guy.

Gillick: On the record as to be retiring after the season as a G.M. Given his recent success he may re-think this plan. At one time had a home in Toronto ( wife owned an art gallery?) , now has one in Seattle, where it's rumored he may return as team president ( although I read a Geoff Baker story recently that said this is won't happen). Gillick doesn't seem to be a financial guy , so if he were to be hired this would be a shot at Ricciardi and a sign that the team wants the baseball operations side of the equation re-built.

John Tory: This would be interesting. Given the resurgence of the Federal Tories in Ontario I doubt this happens. The ultimate Rogers guy, former chief executive who knows where all the bodies are buried, and more importantly, a good friend of Ted Rogers. His hire would mean Ted is serious about winning.

Bill Stoneman: Former Expo hurler. Now a consultant to the Angels. Married to a Canadian ( I believe he has older kids that work in Toronto) Used to work in the Toronto financial sector after his retirement and before he became the Angels G.M. Knows both sides of the street, baseball operations and financial. Would be a good hire.

Basically, I think it will be none of the above. Look for some faceless minion from within the Rogers hierarchy. In short business as usual. Spend just enough to be on the periphery of contention and turn a small profit or loss. Top down direction limited, and no real objective other than keep the wheels moving and focus on the bottom line.

SheldonL - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#193011) #

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3584455

The above link is a story that discusses the Delgado contract situation for 2009. Basically, the team has a $12mil option or a $4mil buyout. The $16 mil option only would have been vested if Delgado accumulated 30 "points" defined in the contract as: 10 points for winning a league MVP, 9 for coming in second, 8 for coming in third, ..., 2 for coming in ninth, and 1 for coming in 10th in MVP voting. These points accumulate over the life of the contract. Oh, and there's 20 points for WS MVP and 10 for NLCS MVP.
Right now, he's only accumulated 5 for coming in 6th in MVP voting a couple of years back. So, even if he wins the MVP, he's only got 15 points and so no $16 mil salary for '09.

Minaya will certainly be in the running for all marque FA's - most notably Teixeira and K-Rod - but just considering the odds (Arizona, Detroit, Mets, Angels, St. Louis are all looking for a closer) and that there are upwards of 10 teams going to try to sign Tex, you have to suppose that there's a strong chance that they'll miss out on one or both.

That will make B.J. Ryan all the more attractive.

Wow, wouldn't I want to be Omar minaya right about now! He's got quite the checklist:
2 SP's to replace Pedro and Perez
a closer
an outfielder

I think he makes a play at both Manny and Teixeira and hopes to get at least one if not both. He gets to make ludicrous offers to K-Rod and the other top SP's like Sabathia and Burnett and others. What an awesome job! I'm curious to see how it pans out.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#193012) #

And since Ted's life story alleges a roughly $300 million loss on the Blue Jays over the years, we have a new front-runner for the Giller Prize for fiction.

I wonder if Perkins has ever considered the financial statements of a company that doesn't field a sports team; I suspect the Jays' bookkeeping is pretty tame in comparison to many. I mean, New Line insisted for years that they didn't make any money on Lord of the Rings.

Wildrose - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#193014) #

i think i have to disagree with that statement. Croney-ism is exactly the opposite.

Well regardless of your political persuasion, Tory is no crony looking at his accomplishments. Tory would not have to go up the chain of command with Rogers, he'd bypass poor NFL obsessed Phil Lind completely, and simply phone his buddy Ted if he actually wanted something. It's all about access to more financial resources with Tory who seems to have lots of clout with the guy in charge.

Glevin - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#193015) #

"I think he makes a play at both Manny and Teixeira and hopes to get at least one if not both. He gets to make ludicrous offers to K-Rod and the other top SP's like Sabathia and Burnett and others. What an awesome job! I'm curious to see how it pans out."

I think the Mets are the most likely team to land K-Rod and will probably land one of the second tier of starters (Lowe, Burnett, etc...). I don't see them going after Texiera but Manny is a possibility. Minaya is a very overrated GM as he has had an enormous budget and seems to ignore what the team obviously needs at the deadline. (07-Starters, 08-bullpen help.) His handling of the Randolph firing was pathetic. Of course, when he was GM of the Expos, he did make one of the worst trades ever. It's a lot easier to be a GM when you can throw money at super-stars.

smcs - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#193017) #

All of the coaches are returning, but Geoff Baker is reporting that the Jays have given permission to the Mariners to interview Tony LaCava.

In that same article, he also mentions that he is planning on (or already has) putting Roy Halladay #1 on the Cy Young ballot, with Lee at 2 and Dice-K at 3. At least we know it won't be a clean sweep! His main reason? That Halladay had a much tougher schedule than Lee. Perhaps the BBWAA aren't as incompetent as we all thought.

Wildrose - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#193018) #

Bob Elliott has a fairly comprehensive look at the potential Godfrey replacements.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#193019) #

Jeff Blair mentioned David Peterson, who also sits on Rogers' Board, as a possible.

Peterson, Tory, Rae? What in the name of Ruth did Stuart Smith, Bill Davis and Howard Hampton do to be excluded from consideration for this plum job?

Paul D - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#193021) #

At least we know it won't be a clean sweep! His main reason? That Halladay had a much tougher schedule than Lee. Perhaps the BBWAA aren't as incompetent as we all thought.

This isn't fair. There are very legitimate reasons to pick Lee over Halladay. When Lee wins the award, Halladay really won't have anything to complain about.

Jevant - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#193025) #

At the same time, I (think) that if you ask most of the writers who'd you prefer to take to start Game 7 of the World Series this year if both players were available (just hypothetically, of course), I bet that 90% or more would say Halladay.

Which is saying something (probably more the track record than anything else).

Thomas - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#193026) #

This isn't fair. There are very legitimate reasons to pick Lee over Halladay. When Lee wins the award, Halladay really won't have anything to complain about.

How isn't it fair? Halladay was basically as good as Lee and faced much tougher opposition. There are legitimate reasons to pick Lee over Halladay and Halladay won't have anything to complain about when he doesn't win. But, there are also legitimate reasons to pick Halladay over Lee and if Halladay were to win (he won't), Lee also wouldn't have anything to complain about. You cannot argue that Lee has faced opposition nearly as difficult as Halladay did.

ds - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#193029) #

<i>The problem as I see it, is that they have a disengaged owner. Godfrey mentioned in one article that not once during his tenure did Rogers ever attend a meeting about what the teams budget would be. Yes, I know in a large publicly traded corporation there is a chain of command, but this lack of involvement surprised me. Ted Rogers seems more interested in flogging his new book and planning for his succession than putting a winning Blue Jay team on the field. </i>

Ted Rogers doesn't even run Rogers anymore, and he hasn't for some time. There is another guy running the show, whose name escapes me. Ted Rogers is there as a public face, and not much else.

Besides, would you rather it be like MLSE, where the owners have their fingers in every decision? At least Rogers (the corporation, not the man) know enough to stay out of areas which they have no expertise.

Jays2010 - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#193031) #

Re: Lee vs Halladay

The argument for CY Young is almost like the argument for who deserves a playoff spot more, the White Sox or the Blue Jays. Similar records, but the B Jays have faced way better competition. If we wanna give Halladay the Cy, why not the B Jays a playoff spot (although the Yanks deserve it more than us, obviously).

Re: Trading Lind: I say do it for the right player(s) because at some point it looks like Lind, Cooper and Snider are our LF/1B/DH and I don't think it's good enough in the AL East. One RH bat I would definately go after (though he'd be very hard to acquire) is Matt LaPorta. We could eventually have Snider in LF, Cooper at 1B and LaPorta at DH covering 1B and LF. The Indians want a closer (BJ); how about Ryan and Lind for Laporta and a prospect?

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#193032) #

Not crazy about the prospect of losing LaCava to another team. He seems to be a strong candidate to replace JP if and when the Jays become an also-ran again in mid- to late-2009. I guess it isn't fair to hold his career back as a contingency plan for the front office.

ayjackson - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#193034) #

I wonder if the Jays would be best served by taking someone out of the MLB head office. A voice there, coupled with the combined strength of the AL East (and maybe another year of the Yanks on the outside) might be just what the doctor ordered to get the divisions realigned somehow.

Wildrose - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#193037) #

Ted Rogers doesn't even run Rogers anymore, and he hasn't for some time. There is another guy running the show, whose name escapes me. Ted Rogers is there as a public face, and not much else.

Not much else other than being the majority shareholder. Given that he's considering which one of his children will be his successor, I would still consider him more than just a "public face", he controls the damn company.

Wildrose - Wednesday, October 01 2008 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#193039) #

I'd rather have an engaged owner willing to provide more financial resources to a team that's on the bubble. In terms of a successor , in fairness there's been much speculation on Bay Street about who will run the show when Ted retires, and it may not be either of his kids, but rest assured control of the company will remain in the family.

Paul D - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#193048) #

How isn't it fair? Halladay was basically as good as Lee and faced much tougher opposition. There are legitimate reasons to pick Lee over Halladay and Halladay won't have anything to complain about when he doesn't win. But, there are also legitimate reasons to pick Halladay over Lee and if Halladay were to win (he won't), Lee also wouldn't have anything to complain about. You cannot argue that Lee has faced opposition nearly as difficult as Halladay did.

The implication was that the voters would have to be incompetent to give the award to Lee over Halladay. That is not fair to the voters.

Mike D - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#193049) #

The strength-of-schedule point is an interesting one, but it's not like Cliff Lee was a college football coach who scheduled a bunch of cupcakes. He faced his league-scheduled opponents and beat nearly all of them.

I'm of the view that Cy Young votes should come down to value added through actual run prevention, which for starting pitchers should mean runs allowed and innings pitched. Strength of schedule might be worth considering when evaluating trade and free agency possibilities, and for making the "who starts hypothetical Game 7" determination, but for the Cy? That's got to come down to what you did...not what, all things being equal, you would have done.

Mike D - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#193050) #

On an unrelated note, I don't care how many times I hear it from Canadian sports highlight shows and reporters: I am not going to be happy for the Red Sox simply because of Jason Bay. And you can't make me.

One ray of hope for the Cubs and the Angels: the 2-2-1 format. Back when it was 2-3, it would be curtains to lose game 1 at home (81% series winning percentage for the victorious visitor, 100% if the visitor won games 1 and 2). Since they switched to 2-2-1, it's been a slightly more reasonable 67% series winning percentage for the Game 1-winning away team (14 for 21).

SK in NJ - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#193051) #

Baseball Tonight on ESPN discussed awards a few days ago and the general concensus was that Halladay is the better pitcher but Lee had a better season (not surprising). One person who apparently has a vote called in (from Seattle I believe) and he said he'll vote for Halladay because of the strength of schedule and innings pitched (mentioned Lee is 5-0 against the Royals). Kruk, Olney, and others basically said Halladay is the guy they'd take in a playoff situation (Olney said Halladay and Sabathia are the two best pitchers in baseball) but they both picked Lee for the Cy. Understandable.

I'm guessing Lee will win, but it definitely won't be a clean sweep. Halladay will get some first place votes.

Mike Green - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#193053) #

Strength-of-schedule arguments, if you buy them, would presumably influence the MVP vote as well. There is a decent argument that the best players in the league were Pedroia, Sizemore, Mauer and Morneau. One guesses that strength of schedule arguments would tip the balance in Pedroia's favour.

92-93 - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#193054) #

"He faced his league-scheduled opponents and beat nearly all of them."

Actually, on a few occasions the Indians would give Lee an extra days rest to keep him away from the better pitcher and better team.

Glevin - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#193056) #

"Actually, on a few occasions the Indians would give Lee an extra days rest to keep him away from the better pitcher and better team."

When? Lee had a better ERA and a better W-L record (an historic W/L record really) with a worse team. Halladay is a better pitcher but Lee had the better year. (The Indians even blew 3 saves for Lee)

92-93 - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#193059) #

The easiest example is to look at his last start against the Jays (Aug10) - since the AS break he was going every 5th day, but when he was going to be lined up against Halladay, all of a sudden the Indians had to slot the newly acquired Reyes in the rotation in front of Lee and have him go on 5 days rest.

Glevin - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#193060) #

"The easiest example is to look at his last start against the Jays (Aug10) - since the AS break he was going every 5th day, but when he was going to be lined up against Halladay, all of a sudden the Indians had to slot the newly acquired Reyes in the rotation in front of Lee and have him go on 5 days rest."

How does that hurt him? The Jays were one of the worst offenses in the league and he pitched something like 16 shutout innings against them this year.

Wildrose - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#193061) #

Here's an update on Canadian Adam Loewen's switch to being a positional player.

Before Loewen can begin his career as an outfielder the Orioles will need to restructure his contract and get some help from the commissioner's office. Loewen signed a major league contract after he was drafted and he's out of minor league options. The Orioles want to be able to send Loewen to the minor leagues without the risk of losing him to another organization.

Lowen came through Southern Alberta several years ago as a member of Canada's junior national team batting clean-up and also being the ace starter ( they were playing Joe Mauer's American team) and many scouts loved his bat almost as much as his arm. Let's hope it goes well.

92-93 - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#193062) #

"Actually, on a few occasions the Indians would give Lee an extra days rest to keep him away from the better pitcher"

Do I really need to repost what I say originally? It would help if you just read it the first time instead of instantly penning responses supporting Lee that have nothing to do with what I said.

Wildrose - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#193063) #

Keeping with the Canadian content theme, the news on Erik Bedard is much brighter, his surgery was not nearly as invasive as first thought , and in fact it was similar to what Dustin McGowan had, meaning Seattle has quite the decision to make about offering him arbitration.

Wildrose - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#193064) #

Nobody can win this Halladay/Lee argument as both sides have valid points regarding their position. It's all about your own perspective and how you personally value different components of pitching. Heck I've even heard some say Halladay deserves this as some sort of life time achievement award , others point out Lee will never be this good again so he deserves the present glory.

Who ever wins I can live with it.

John Northey - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#193066) #

John Northey - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#193071) #

Now that final seasons stats are out we're seeing some of the fun stuff available.

Charts for AL - what interested me here was the Fielding vs Pitching chart and how the Jays are all alone in the top corner. #1 by a mile for balls in play, but also #1 for fielding independent pitching. So the Jays pitchers put the ball in play a lot but even not factoring in the strong defense they were very good.

Final Win Shares Above Bench are also there. Roy leads by a mile at 17, AJ/Rios/Litsch/Marcum are tied for second at 8, Wells is at 7 and Downs at 6. McDonald is at the bottom at -4, with Stewart & Wilkerson both at -2 while Bautista/Velandia/Accardo/Purcey are all at -1. Thus, in theory, a random AAAA guy should've outperformed those guys.
Of note, Lance Berkman led the majors in this stat at +25 with Lincecum the #1 pitcher at 22 (if only...). Lee and Mauer lead the AL at 20 each. Halladay is tied for 8th in the majors. 13 guys were lower than McDonald.

Chuck - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#193075) #

The Lee/Halladay argument is fairly dull to me. Both were very good this year, both deserve the award but only one can get it.

I agree with this. A Lee/Halladay 1-2 finish would be fine. Thing is, it'll be a Lee/Rodriguez/Halladay 1-2-3 finish. And that's where the poop will be thickest.

Thomas - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#193077) #

The Lee/Halladay argument is fairly dull to me. Both were very good this year, both deserve the award but only one can get it.

This isn't a Bell vs Trammell 1987 MVP argument where one was painfully obviously better than the other and the voters paid zero attention

I don't understand this. You seem to be implying that Bell/Trammell is more interesting than the Lee/Halladay argument. But, with Bell and Trammell, there is a right answer (as far as there can be one with regards to the MVP award) and a wrong answer. There isn't an argument about who deserves the MVP. Even the most ardent Jays fans on this site would admit that Trammell deserved the award.

With Lee and Halladay it's a debate over how much consideration should be given to the strength of schedule and opposition each pitcher faced. It's about how to incorporate the Jays' fielding strength against Cleveland's defence. There is no right answer and either is a deserving winner, but I find the argument far more interesting than one where someone's trying to defend Bell's MVP title on the basis of his HR total.

Chuck - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#193080) #

As compelling as the "quality of competition" argument may be, I think it's flaws are such that one should be at least a little bit weary. That is, if I understand how the "quality of competition" is measured.

Halladay faced Baltimore more than Lee. Baltimore is a weak team so this should have helped Halladay's W-L record. But they were an above average offensive team, so this should have hurt Halladay's ERA.

Lee faced Detroit more than Halladay. Detroit was a below average team so facing them should have helped Lee's W-L record. But Detroit had a good offense, particularly against LHP (an 828 OPS), so this should have hurt Lee's ERA.

Lee faced Minnesota more than Halladay did. Minnesota had both a good record and a good offense, but they hit very poorly against LHP (a 729 OPS).

If the "quality of competition" argument is based solely on W-L record, then Lee's match-ups against below .500 but lefty-killing Detroit would be deemed favourable and those against above .500 but lefty-non-killing Minnesota would be deemed unfavourable. In reality, the opposite was probably true (I haven't looked at Lee's individual starts, so I don't know for sure).

And aside from L/R quality breakdowns of opposition faced, what about the quality of those opponents based on who was and wasn't hurt when you faced them. Did you face Chicago with or without Quentin? Boston with or without Ortiz? And Drew? Did you catch Pedroia on a day of rest? Was Frank Thomas on his hot streak in Oakland when you faced them? Was Longoria in the lineup when you faced Tampa Bay?

I think there are a lot of meaningful variables that are getting ignored when considering quality of competition.

92-93 - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#193081) #

Chuck, the people interested in strength of schedule don't give a hoot about W-L, so it seems pretty straightforward to me - we are looking at offenses faced. Joe Sheehan at BP wrote an article on this a few weeks back.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1012

Wildrose - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#193082) #

t's about how to incorporate the Jays' fielding strength against Cleveland's defence.

This is what TRA specializes in, the expected runs allowed in a defence and park neutral environment. Lee is better by about 7 runs. This metric does not factor in strength of opponent though.

John Northey - Thursday, October 02 2008 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#193085) #

To me the Lee/Halladay is a case where either is a worthy winner and virtually everyone sees that, thus debates are hair splitting as a rule (strength of schedule is pretty much the only big item).

The Bell/Trammell was a case of people who were very strongly one way or the other. Few who thought one should win would see the case for the other. That makes for more interesting debates - more stuff to disagree on, from value of defense to value of RBI's to clutch performance to where the team would be without him.

R Billie - Friday, October 03 2008 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#193094) #

If Bedard is non-tendered, I think it's a no brainer that the Jays go after him and risk some money. In addition to the Canadian thing, he just has too good an upside as a pitcher and they can use all the depth they can get.

Glevin - Friday, October 03 2008 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#193095) #

"The Bell/Trammell was a case of people who were very strongly one way or the other. Few who thought one should win would see the case for the other."

That's diplomatic. One side had a fabulous case and the other had almost none. Basically, the argument was-for Trammell-better offensive season, very good defensive player at SS on the team that won and for Bell-More HRs and RBI. It was one of the worst MVP choices in history. Of course, another one of the worst was in the NL that same year.

John Northey - Friday, October 03 2008 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#193096) #

Looking at the link for Bedard at the ussmariner I saw a few very deluded souls. I mean, the Jays contending requires some leaps of faith but at least they are above 500 for the 3rd straight year and have a very young potential star playing everyday in Snider. The Mariners on the other hand lost 101 games, worse than the Jays have done since 1979 (94 is as many loses as the Jays have had in one year since the end of their expansion years in 1982).

Seattle had just 4 guys with over 20 AB's (2 with under 20) who had an OPS above 90. That's right, 90. Their team's ERA+ was 88 - just above what Josh Towers did here in 2007 (83) and lower than Tower's career ERA of 91, which by chance is the same as the Mariners 2007 ERA+. That isn't a team that is one or two parts from contention, that is a team that needs a complete overhaul.

Now, if Seattle is interesting a full overhaul then they should be dumping anyone making money there. They do have a few good players in Ichiro and Beltre, not sure how good defensively Yuniesky Betancourt is, but at 26 they probably wouldn't trade him except for a ransom. Probably not a match for the Jays.

Glevin - Friday, October 03 2008 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#193100) #

"not sure how good defensively Yuniesky Betancourt is, but at 26 they probably wouldn't trade him except for a ransom. Probably not a match for the Jays."

Betancourt can't hit, doesn't walk at all, and can't field. Maybe Seattle is deluded into thinking he will vastly improve, but I'd rather have Scutaro and Macdonald.

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