Heh. I think they are clearly just listing the players that left, but putting Wilkerson and Mench under any heading with "key" is wrong. Here is a case whereby these two "KEY LOSSES" as sporting news likes to refer to them by, will clearly result in a case of addition by subtraction.

I was going to post this after John Northey made his comment about the gap between Fernandez and Jackson at this respective point in their careers, when he posted their lines. The difference is exactly the ability to make contact. If Jackson can add .40 points of BA, he will be a very similiar player to Tony, albeit with slightly less on base ability and slightly more power. I'll take it!

I also don't understand how the Yankees receive an A+. If the evaluation system is based purely off of the talent of players signed, sure. But does it take into account the Yankees seemed to have significantly overpaid for these players given whats happened tot he market? It doesn't seem to.  The Red Sox acquiring Baldelli, Smoltz, and Penny for a bag of peanuts and some crackerjacks seems much more astute to me than throwing $400,000,000+ at 3 quality players. In terms of future roster flexibility and market conditions, the Sox moves feel far superior to me.

In fact, it's only the Teixeria signing that seems to be a good bet out of the Yankees moves to return something close to the money spent.

• CC Sabathia is listed as a $20+ million pitcher for each of the past $34.6 for last year and is signed for $23 mil a year for 7 years - he could be worth it but odds are that he'll be lucky to average it out over those years as he has only passed $23 million twice in his career (the last two years)
• Teixeira is getting $22.5 per year for 8 years which he has passed once in his career - last year.  Just two other times has he reached $15 million. 
  
• AJ signed for $16.5  a year for 5 years, a level he has reached twice in his career - last year and his final year in Florida - with two $11.8's in the middle.  So look for a big year from AJ in 5 years.
  

For me, the Blue Jays' season comes down to two simple questions:

1) Can the offense hit the whole year like it did under Cito and Gene last year? (and, more specifically, can Rios and Wells hit like legit middle of the order hitters like they did under Cito and Gene last year?) Because that was an above average offensive team once Cito and Gene took over.

2) Can we get average-ish 3/4/5 starting rotation slot production out of Purcey, McGowan, Richmond, and Cecil this year (the 4 starting rotation candidates that I personally have legit confidence in)? Because if they give us average or even just slightly below average production in those 3 slots, then along with the best starter in baseball and the best bullpen in baseball this will once again be a very good pitching staff.

I'm not going to say I'm overly confident that the answer to either of those questions in clearly YES.......but I do have to say that I don't at all think that it's an extraordinary longshot for both these questions to be answered in the positive.

And if they are indeed both answered YES, then this team has the potential to be pretty darn good.....and at least good enough to make a potential mid-season upgrade at least an interesting possibilty.

It's interesting PECOTA pegs them as a .500 team which is about what I figured.  A lot would have to go right for them to surpass that.

While on the surface Hentgen's comment may seem comforting, I think he forgets to take into account that the Jays have not lost just Burnett (which in itself is a pretty big deal) from the rotation but also Marcum and probably McGowan for half the year or more depending on his rehab.  The people stepping in to take their spots are all either young and relatively untested or recovering from very serious injury.

Meanwhile in the pen, Scott Downs is experiencing some arm discomfort in spring training after is performance faltered late last year under what I believe to be fatigue.  After major injuries to Ryan, Accardo, Janssen, McGowan, and Marcum, at some point you have to figure it's not just bad luck but a definate trend that may be stemming from the way these guys train or are used during the season.

For the relievers at least, I've been consistently cringing at the number of times I see relievers pitching three days in a row, 2 out of 3 days, 3 out of 4 days, or 4 or 5 times in a week.

I think having an excellent defence coupled with an excellent bullpen will help the Jays tremendously out-perform expectations.  The Jays don't need 6 or 7 breakout offensive performances to have an average offence. An "up" year from Wells, and a breakthrough from Rios along with any of Hill, Lind, Snider, or Rolen being significantly above average will do that, I think.

I'm envisioning the Jays surprising most people and winning 83-85 games.

You can't compare Lind's overall line to the line 92-93 posted for LF and say it isn't much of an improvement, because Lind's production in LF is a significant part of that overall line.

Consider:

Wilkerson: .216/.297/.332  OPS+ 68
Mench: .243/.321/.357  OPS+ 81
Stewart: .240/.325/.303  OPS+ 69

Lind: .282/.316/.439  OPS+ 99

The production we got out of non-Lind LF last year was truly abysmal. Just having Lind in there for a full season would represent a significant upgrade to our offence even if he just simply reproduced his exact line from last year  for the entire season. Keep in mind he is also just entering his age 25 season (you did acknowledge this Dave). The time is now, if he's going to take a step forward and become a good MLB starter.

DH production (primary sources)

Matt Stairs .250/.342/.394  OPS+ 96
Frank Thomas  .167/.306/.333  OPS+ 71

Not as much of black hole of terrible production, but still, even Snider a year away is probably a pretty safe bet to provide something like a .250/.325/.455 line (I don't think that's a ridiculous statement, and infact is probably underselling him), but even that still would represent a significant upgrade over the production we got out of DH.  This is a crude analysis, obviously, as Stairs played only 75 games at DH and a few in the outfield as well.  But considering we trotted Eckstein out to DH on occasion, and Barajas as well, the guys who made up of the rest of the DH AB's probably bring down the overall line from what Stairs was delivering.

I'm very worried about Adam Lind as the regular DH, since he struggled in the role last season:

Lind as LF:
.292 / .331 / .450  (OPS+ 107)

Lind as DH:
.231 / .242 / .385  (OPS+ 64)

That's a huge difference.  Were his struggles because of the move to DH, or did Lind just go into a slump anyway, and that slump just happened to coincidentally coincide with Snider's promotion and Lind's move to DH?

[re Lind] He's young enough to improve, but those aren't good numbers for a left fielder. His destiny is to be a left-handed spare part ... Snider has unlimited potential, but he's a year away, I think.

I agree with Dave on both assessments.

Some cannot resist the temptation to lump Lind and Snider together (two young left-handed hitters), but these two are very different animals. Lind is almost five years older than Snider. Turning 26 this summer, he should, theoretically, be on the precipice of entering his peak years. He could well elevate his game to the next level, but his ceiling may well be competent major leaguer rather than star performer. Snider, of course, is very young with many more developmental years lying ahead, most (all?) of which will take place in the majors. It is difficult to not project stardom in his case, though I'd prefer to see his baptism by fire commence in 2010.

I don't think anyone here is advocating that Lind will be an all-star. Those hopes have faded rapidly since his first September call-up. My assertation the entire time has simply been that compared to what they trotted out last year in LF (Wilkerson, Stewart, Mench), Lind represents a significant upgrade, even if he doesn't improve at all.

I'd still really like to see them sign a guy like Alou, just so that they can keep Lind in LF and out of the DH spot, and allow Snider to polish up for a few months before being unleashed on hapless starters across the American League.