Two thoughts on Sanchez:

It strikes me as kind of weird that in baseball there isn't some kind of sanction for the home team when one of the visiting players gets injured by a fan. I'd swear that I heard some old timely lore about Paul Molitor nearly getting murdered by a lawn dart thrown from the stands.

I want to be angry about this, but apparently it was a kid who threw the ball. It couldn't have been a little one given the accuracy and the fact that the ball caused an injury, but still.

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
25m
Max Scherzer says he’s going to throw another rehab outing with triple-A Buffalo this week — targeting Friday. Looking to increase volume up to around 60 pitches and continue shaking off rust

Kirk is starting rehab tomorrow in Dunedin. Looks like he could be back next Monday.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
36s
Also: Alejandro Kirk’s set to start a rehab assignment after facing live pitching and progressing well. Likely needs 20 or so at bats before he’s MLB ready again but still a big step for Blue Jays.


Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
2m
Some Jays updates:
• Dylan Cease set to start at AAA Thursday
• Max Scherzer set to start at AAA Friday
• Shane Bieber in Toronto now will start at AAA next, possibly Saturday; will need 2+ more rehab starts
• Jesus Sanchez day to day
• it’s raining in Atlanta

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
3m
Yimi Garcia (elbow) is scheduled to begin another rehab assignment with the Dunedin Blue Jays on Wednesday; he’ll throw an inning and go from there

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
4m
Tommy Nance threw live BP on Monday in Dunedin; he’s scheduled to make a rehab appearance with triple-A Buffalo on Friday

man that's a lot of injury updates.

Buffalo's likely starters, Thursday through Saturday:

Cease
Scherzer
Bieber

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
2m
At the Blue Jays complex in Dunedin, Fla., Addison Barger (elbow) has progressed to hitting and throwing, while Lenyn Sosa (wrist) is beginning a hitting progression

What a great time to be a Bisons season ticket holder.

An instant answer back inning. that seems rare this year.

now settle down, Gaus.

I like Sanchez as ph here.

you know, it's not entirely possible they could activate four players next Friday (though I confess that would be unrealistically fast for Barger) which would be kinda fun.

So let me speculate...

Cease bumps Juenger (or whomever has taken his spot between now and Tuesday)

Kirk bumps Heineman (thus clearing a 40 man spot), Scherzer and Nance bump Macko and Rodriguez (and Estrada is activated to AAA taking that 40 man spot Rodruigez loses)

Barger bumps Pinango for the same reason as last time

Bieber, a couple of weeks later, probably pushes Andrews off of the 40 and creates the potential for a tough choice, depending on Seabold's performance in the meantime and everyone's health.

Guerrero having another underwhelming season in what should be his prime years - Shapiro and Atkins must be relieved that Guerrero's contract was an ownership decision.

Jesus Sanchez pinch hitting for Valenzuela instead of Gimenez in the 9th inning last night is a great example of how Schneider manages.

Gimenez is incredibly hitting even worse this year (68wrc+) than he did last year (70).

An unspoken thing last year was that Gimenez' injury was actually a nice boost to our offense.

Gimenez is 2nd on the team in RBI and has been good in high leverage situations all season.

Worst qualified hitters over the last 3 seasons:

1. IF K.Hayes 1094pa, 57wrc+
2. C P.Bailey 1023pa, 70wrc+
3. C J.Heim 1003pa, 71wrc+
4. IF A.Gimenez 1211pa, 77wrc+
5. OF B.Doyle 1263pa, 78wrc+

And Gimenez is down to 69 over the last two years, though he doesn't have enough playing time to qualify for the leaderboards. Tied for 7th worst amongst players with 500pa+ the last 2yrs tho.

"Gimenez is 2nd on the team in RBI and has been good in high leverage situations all season."

Maybe it's a fluke, but Gimenez has gotten a lot of big hits this year despite the WAR.

Gimenez is legitimately one of the worst everyday hitters in the league. I definitely think certain players do perform well in clutch spots (or perform poorly), but with someone as bad offensively as Gimenez is, I’m not sure I’d use that as a reason not to pinch hit for him late in a game.

That being said, with our injuries counting on his recent clutchness there is fine i guess. Its not like we should actually have a ton of faith in valenzuela at the plate either, despite his hot streak.

But in general, counting on a bat like gimenez all year is gonna cost us offense.

Part of the reason why i thought an IF should be a bigger FA priority than an OF in the offseason.

On a related note....

Pinango 94pa 122wrc+ 0.3war
Sanchez 183pa 115wrc+ 0.3war
Lukes 85pa 113wrc+ 0.5war
Varsho 230pa 105wrc+ 1.0war
Tucker 248pa 105wrc+ 0.7war

"Guerrero having another underwhelming season in what should be his prime years - Shapiro and Atkins must be relieved that Guerrero's contract was an ownership decision."

I can't fault the front office. Vlad is probably the only bonafide power hitter in baseball with zero protection other than Jose Ramirez. Shapiro tried to get Ramirez multiple times. They tried to get Soto, they tried to get Tucker...they know they need another bat and protection for Vlad and they've tried to get it done. What are they supposed to do? I don't believe Vlad can max his numbers without proper protection in the line up. He's consistently being pitched away or on the corner and if he gets on base the opposing pitcher has to deal with Okamoto or Varsho or Sanchez. I'd like to see where other guys end up at the end of a season if they're surrounded by the likes of Varsho, Lukes, Springer or Okamoto. Vlad is underperforming but he has pretty much no help at all. He's not Yordano Alvarez...

*Matt Olsen has Acuna, Albies, Harris and Riley.
*Kyle Schwarber has Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh
*Yordan Alvarez is in a similar position to Vlad. He's elite, Vlad isn't but even he has Altuve, Paredes and Walker who is on fire this year.
*Judge and Rice have each other plus Bellinger
*Ohtani, Freeman, Betts, Tucker, Hernandez

I'd bet Vlad would be over 10 HR and over .290 AVG minimum if he had was batting 3rd in between Rice and Judge.

Guys like Ramirez, Alvarez and Soto are freaks. They're going to hit min 30 bombs and crazy numbers no matter what it seems, but even a guy like Soto performed better when he had "protection."

I think Vlad needs a lot of protection to "focus," as he tries to do to much and falls into bad tendencies when he's not getting the pitches he wants and it takes him 6-12 weeks *every year to figure it out. It's kind of crazy this FO doesn't just accept the reality and overpay someone who can hit behind him whether that's Trout, Buxton or some other bat who will likely be a burden and a black hole in another couple of years. I completely agree it's a waste of prime Vlad as it stands.

What's a perfect trade deadline?

1) Cheap Move for INF:
Trade for Brandon Lowe to play 2B with McAdoo backing up against LHP.
Platoon Ernie and Gimenez at 2B
1) Costlier Move for INF:
Trade for CJ Abrams and platoon Ernie and Gimenez at 2B

2) Cheap move for OF Power
Wait for Santander to come back and hope he isn't damaged goods. trade away extra LHH for bullpen help
2) Costlier move for OF Power
Trade for Mike Trout and accept the future pain

3) Cheap move for BP
Do what you do every year and aim for the best RP until you get outbid then settle for what's left
3) Costlier move for BP
There is none. Good relief pitchers are not on non contending teams and I wouldn't advocate for Chapman or Senzatela as bonafide lights out closer types.

Move all and any moves up from July 31 to June.

I theory, I suppose I'd rather see Sanchez hit for Gimenez, but in practice they both hit and neither did anything of note. It's not like Gimenez ended the game with Sanchez sitting on the bench.

Gimenez/Valenzuela are also roughly equal vs RHP, with Gimenez having a significant baserunning advantage if he manages to get on.

interesting stuff, Mike.

i guess the question is.....why doesn't he use his high lev approach in all situations? might be a good idea to try.

Chad Dallas is listed as "taxi squad" on the AAA roster.

Maybe lost to another thread, but I posted a cheap quad A type lefty"masher" currently in Washington's AAA... Joey Weimer. His career splits are all favoring LHP. This year has been a good season statistically, but I'm unsure if underlying data supports it. He's a power speed, ok fielder who doesn't make enough contact. Anyway. That is the cheapest possible options I can thinkn of to the balance problelm unless Schneider temembers how to his ML pitching

Chad Dallas is in Atlanta and could be activated for tomorrow depending on how many innings Corbin goes tonight and therefore how hard the bullpen is worked.

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
30m
Dylan Cease came out of his bullpen and agility work on Tuesday feeling good — he’ll start for the Buffalo Bisons on Thursday.

Max Scherzer will start for Buffalo on Friday, followed by Shane Bieber on Saturday.

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
5m
Alejandro Kirk is beginning a rehab assignment Wednesday night, hitting third as DH for the Dunedin Blue Jays.

Plan as of now is for him to catch on Thursday, have an off day Friday, play this weekend in Dunedin and then move up to Buffalo early next week.

One thing of the higher leverage stats to lower leverage stats that might be in play is different infield positioning. If the runners have to stay close to the bases, maybe that gives more gaps if a player tends to hit groundballs towards those zones where there may be a difference. I guess the other difference could be more ability to hit pitchers that pitch from the stretch rather than from the windup. Those would be reasons that the batter couldn't control, that also wouldn't be just "clutch" that would lead to differences in high leverage versus low leverage situations.

George gets the day off.

Vladdy is just so lost. What a terrible challenge.

Looks like we're trading for SWR from the Twins - he's still only 25 and worth a shot... maybe as a bullpen arm if they want to try a different approach.

nice. that's a worthwhile pickup.

Cash considerations? Why not?

man that hoffman blowup was a stab in the heart, just when they got to .500, all of a sudden things seem grimmer than ever.

come back soon, every injured guy, this team needs a big boost.

And it gets more complex. Since they traded for Simeon Woods Richardson (who has no options) and Schneider says he won't go tomorrow (he has the rest but travel and stuff). Yesavage could go on 4 days tomorrow and SWR on Friday, but if not then probably Chad Dallas (on the taxi squad) gets activated tomorrow and that needs a roster spot.

They could DFA Rodriguez again (no one will claim him) which frees a spot, or demote Juenger and DFA Andrews (no great loss if he's claimed, doesn't have the experience to declare his free agency). In any case, Dallas would yield to SWR no later than Friday.

But this puts another guy you can't option on the depth chart making my initial speculation more complicated. So somewhat revised:

Cease bumps whoever has survived of Rodriguez/Juenger - now both are off of the 26 and there's a 40 man spot available.
Kirk -> Heinemann (on 26 and 40)
Scherzer (or Nance) -> Macko
Nance (or Scherzer) -> if everyone is healthy he'd have to bump Seabold or SWR
Garcia -> if everyone is healthy would have to bump the other one

At this point your staff is Gaus, Cease, Trey, Max, Corbin and Varland, Rogers, Hoffman, Fisher, Fluharty, Miles, Nance, and Garcia
Remaining on the IL (60) are Bieber, Mantiply and Estrada. When the latter is ready they can activate and send to AAA but that ties up the open 40 man spot.

When Bieber is ready, if everyone is healthy they will probably have to cook up a phantom injury because they don't want to lose any of those guys. Andrews (or someone like Clase) will need to be DFA'd.

Mantiply won't be eligible to come off until after the ASB.

If Seabold or SWR prove themselves indispensable then, well, that will be an interesting day.

"man that hoffman blowup was a stab in the heart, just when they got to .500, all of a sudden things seem grimmer than ever."

I felt this was gonna happen. Someone posted at the beginning of the year that Hoffman was a major issue...whoever that poster is was right.

Alternatively, the Jays lost the last 3 games because they got bad starts from their SPs and it had nothing to do with Jeff Hoffman blowing a game.

Not only is Vladimir Guerror Jr eighth on the team in home runs, he has more stolen bases (5) than home runs (3). He's somehow second on the team in steals.

There are two questions that I'd like to see asked of the team/players that I am trying to figure out. 1) after having easily the best offensive season of his career, why did Varsho change his approach? My gut feeling is that it was the World Series where he, maybe more than anyone, lost it for the Jays because he couldn't make contact but I don't know and I miss that power he had last season. 2) why did the Jays play Lukes when he had vertigo? Lukes has been great since he came back but Jays gave him like 50 PA when he had severe vertigo. Lukes said: "it's hard to hit when the world is spinning and when you feel like you could throw up at any second". Why the hell wasn't he on the IL? He clearly couldn't hit with the issue and Jays had Barger and Sanchez at that point so they could have played those guys while Lukes got healthy. Jays kept playing Lukes even though he clearly couldn't play. Why????

My take is that the team isn't stealing enough and probably bunting too much.

2) why did the Jays play Lukes when he had vertigo?

They didn't know he had vertigo until April 17 when Lukes visited a specialist in Phoenix during the road trip. He immediately started treatment and had seven hits that weekend (despite not starting Friday). He was originally diagnosed with "allergies" during Spring Training, but began to have doubts after the symptoms remained when he moved to Toronto. Ultimately, he was misdiagnosed, and it seems that none of the team's affiliated medical professionals caught it. It seems at some point during the series in Milwaukee, somebody had an epiphany that it might be Vertigo and finally connected him with the right professional and treatment. Not a great situation overall, I'm afraid.

They figured it was Vertigo when they moved to Toronto.
His first prescription didn't work.

I think they were patient with him just like with Schneider.

Now, why Sosa?

The issue with the offense is Vlad and Springer. Those two are the only ones with the ability to be elite offensively, and neither one is close. Springer specifically looks every bit his age. Two mediocre seasons followed by a dead cat bounce at age 35. Not sure what was a reasonable expectation for him in 2026 at age 36, but this is probably a very reasonable outcome for him (a real decline). Hopefully he can bounce back, and maybe he will, but there is a reason there aren't many age 36 and older everyday players anymore. Regardless, Vlad is the bigger issue. I thought the playoffs last year meant no more of this nonsense with him, but I was wrong. I don't even want to think about what the last 7-8 years of his contract are going to look like. Likely a lot of negative WAR seasons as he goes for 3000 hits.

I'm not sure what the answer is. Looking purely at the numbers, the rest of the bats are probably performing about as well as projections and/or reasonable hope. Some are exceeding it. It's Vlad and Springer that are the biggest issues because without them being elite, there isn't a true top of the order bat in the entire lineup.

Last Year ---> This year

CF 113wrc+ #4 ---> 117wrc+ #7 (+4)
RF 104wrc+ #12 --> 82wrc+ #21 (-22)
LF 111wrc+ #10 --> 114wrc+ #9 (+3)
3B 102wrc+ #10 --> 102wrc+ #11 (--)
SS 129wrc+ #2 ---> 72wrc+ #23 (-57)
2B 75wrc+ #26 ---> 118wrc+ #7 (+43)
1B 125wrc+ #9 ---> 104wrc+ #19 (-21)
C 115wrc+ #4 ----> 67wrc+ #23 (-48)
DH 133wrc+ #4 ---> 69wrc+ #27 (-64)

Springer underperformance and injury obviously the biggest hit from last year.

But Kirk's injury not far behind. (Valenzuela giving similar backup performance as Heineman last year).

Vladdy underperformance and Barger injury tied for the next biggest factor.

Gimenez switch from 2B to SS has mostly balanced out with Clement at 2B, but we were probably helped last year by Gimenez' injury and his fulltime status this year has hurt the 2B/SS production overall.

edit: "Barger injury" should actually read "Barger/Lukes injuries).

Not only is Vladimir Guerror Jr eighth on the team in home runs, he has more stolen bases (5) than home runs (3).

He profiles as a lead-off hitter. Good OBP. Tepid SLG.

Devers vs Vladdy: Is it too early to ask who's going to flame out first?

Ben Nicholson-Smith@bnicholsonsmith

Chad Dallas active
Hayden Juenger optioned
Tanner Andrews DFA

Who has been the most valuable reliever in baseball?
Who has been the most valuable Blue Jay per BBRef?

The answer to both is Louis Varland.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/louis-varland-is-more-than-just-available/

Louis Varland leads all pitchers in Win Probability Added at 2.81. Next closest is Cristopher Sanchez at 2.43. The only player ahead of him is Nick Kurtz 3.23.

On the negative side, only 4 players have been worth -2 WPA. Trevor Story on the hitting side and 3 pitchers. One of them unsurprisingly is Hoffman. There have been 2 worse though - Rockies Lorenzen and the biggest WPA dud, beating out Story by 0.01, new Jay SWR.

Biggest issues on offense are clearly Springer and Vlad right now. Kirk coming back will help a fair bit (as long as they don't send down Valuenzuela!) but Barger coming back I don't think makes much of a difference unless he finds another level. Vlad doesn't have the worst numbers on the team, but Jays are paying him $50M a year. He needs to be elite and he isn't even good right now. I don't know what Jays are going to do when Barger is back because team is already imbalanced with lefty OFers. Their lineup vs LHP is so so bad.

Through three innings Dylan Cease has given up two home runs and Worcester have scored five runs.

I'll take the 75 pitches and the fastball sitting 97-98. That means he's likely fine, and ready to start for the jays next time round. pending any postgame aches of course.

free Jeff Passan

Could acquire, but ...

Toronto Blue Jays
Objective: Get back to the 2025 version of themselves.

If they were to unload someone, it could be: Kevin Gausman, SP

If they were to get someone, it could be: Sandy Alcántara, SP

What to know: Since winning the American League last year and falling just shy of a World Series title, the Blue Jays have been positively OK. Decimated by injuries, they find themselves as a very weird tweener: talented enough to consider going out and getting rotation help, average enough so far that sending away an impending free agent such as Gausman is not entirely farfetched.

The Blue Jays are far from that point, though, and they're the sort of team capable of making up significant-enough ground over the next two months not only to put themselves among the acquirers but to throw their hat in the ring for Skubal or Peralta. They're not there yet, either, which is why Alcántara -- who could replace Gausman in the rotation if he leaves in free agency this winter -- makes sense. Despite their struggles, the Blue Jays find themselves only one game out of the final wild-card spot in the AL, and with a cavalcade of players set to come off the injured list -- Dylan Cease, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer -- Toronto is primed for a resurgence.

https://www.espn.com.sg/mlb/story/_/id/48958846/mlb-2026-early-trade-deadline-preview-jeff-passan-30-teams-skubal-tigers-dodgers-yankees-brewers-braves

our manager is being creative with the back of the pen finally.

Okamoto has to challenge those. That's a big spot!

Every team has relievers like that.
Except, the damn Rays.

Jays only win games they look like they have no chance to win on paper. Like they'll lose Gausman and Cease starts but then win the Christopher Sanchez vs Tyler Heinemen start.

I didn't expect such a good game.

That's why I don't understand the betting.

The worse strike calling I've seen this year.
Smith must have been pissed that his catcher wasted their last challenge.

Aaron Judge out for two months. Giddy up and go make whatever trades necessary. The division is open.

John needs to bite the bullet and move Springer out of lead-off at least for a while. Nathan Lukes is right there my man (Clement vs LH wouldn't go amiss)

Moving him down seemed to wake him up last year (she says without reviewing the game logs) and he must wake up or you're gonna need to have an even more difficult discussion (like Sanchez getting some DH reps vs RH)

That sounds sensible Tamra therefore unlikely to be done, but I like where your heads at.

I agree that we'd all want Vlad to be better, but it is a little funny to call him out when he's still hitting ok for the season, and is hot in the last 14 games 943 OPS on 468 OPB/475 SLG and I believe that doesn't count the last Atlanta game where he had 3 hits.

It is probably just SSS but May is sort of his worst month historically, and June/July his best. If you look by season-month for any months he didn't have 100+ in wRC+ you get:

2019 March/April (SS 17 PA) 83
2022 May 98
2023 May 94
2026 May 79
2019 June 87
2020 July (SS 30 PA) 21
2023 August 98
2022 Sept/Oct 92
2019 Sept/Oct 46

Contrast with 150+ wRC+ months:

2026 March/April 157
2021 May 158
2024 May 167
2021 June 220
2022 June 168
2024 June 173
2025 June 151
2022 July 156
2024 July 203
2025 July 166
2019 August 159
2024 August 214
2021 Sept/Oct 161

so the June/July months tend to be good ones for Vlad (and I think he's up to 149 for June so far this year).

I agree he sometimes seems less than the sum of his parts, and so few HR despite the high EV (which is down this year so far for him, but still above ML average) and high LD% and really few SO% (down this year even below his normal very low rate), but he's still a very, very good player.

Hopefully getting Kirk back and adding more offense from others helps loosen him up and/or get's him pitched more and the amazing version of Vlad can come back.

My concern with Vladdy, ever since I saw him preMLB, is that he seems quite immature. This year that appears to show up in not running to first and not running between bases. Too cool??

Posted a bunch of Louis Varland awesomeness yesterday. But what about the other players in the trade?

Rojas debuted this year with 14 innings of 1.26 ERA before going down with a sore elbow. Roden went to AAA, hit well enough in 19 games (136 wRC+), then suffered a minor tear to the labrum of his throwing shoulder.

And as surprising as Varland arguably being the most valuable reliever in baseball so far, how about Ty France arguably being the most valuable position player on the Padres?

Yeah i was annoyed after his amazing April when at the start of May they were saying Vladdy was changing his approach for more power. The power is always there and will always come, he was killing it in a different way for a small sample there was absolutely no reason to change anything.

Still, he's hitting well enough this year that it would be a career season for anyone else on the team other than Springer. He's just a hot week away from last year's numbers.

Agree Vladdy just needs an Okamoto-esque streak to get him up to 10 HRs and all will look okay.

Ugly, I remember you mentioning Vladdy lost patience and changed his approach for more power after the first month. He looked awesome to start the year and you could see him getting frustrated that he kept hitting singles or taking walks while they lost games by a run.

Still think the biggest improvement to this team would be a power bat behind Vlad that would have allowed his April approach to naturally create some HRs as pitchers won't be able to pitch around him so much. Sure, in May he has looked wrecked but those first 3 weeks he was pitched around and he did a great job with AVR and OBP.

SWR up Dallas down