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The Jays took that sentiment to heart, ending the Rays' 7-game winning streak.

Ricky Romero was masterful, shutting the world series runners-up down over 8 innings, striking out 7. Rod Barajas, Adam Lind and Scott Rolen homered for the good guys, with Rolen extending his hitting streak to... 19 games? Correct me if I'm wrong, I don't have time to check, it's Canada Day!

I imagine some Bauxites took time to head down to the Rogers Centre for the July 1 festivities. Even if it wasn't baseball-related, what did you do this Canada Day, and what do you still plan on doing? Here in the nation's capital, I took in the madness of Parliament Hill, the Byward Market and Elgin Street, checked out a free concert at the jazz festival, and am looking forward to fireworks later on.
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92-93 - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#201963) #
For all those from the other thread thinking about getting rid of Millar, I wouldn't get my hopes up. Cito is clearly enamored with him, even though he's hitting .185/.303/.262 since Snider was demoted. Personally I'd rather see Overbay get the starts vs. LHP at 1B, he could handle lefties in 2006 when he hit well, and you obviously want that glove in there over Millar's. Bautista has been solid against lefties, and really deserves more ABs than Millar does.

And if you believe Jerry Howarth, Millar is the reason Scott Rolen is playing so well, he consistently mentions how loose Kevin keeps Scott and how his presence pumps up the whole clubhouse - in otherwords, he ain't goin nowhere.
Ron - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#201964) #
We’re almost at the half way point of the season so it’s report card time for your 2009 Jays.

Rod Barajas – Barajas has been ….. Barajas. He’s doesn’t walk, has a little bit of pop in his bat, and is solid behind the plate. Oh yeah he stole a base for the first time since 2002.

B

Raul Chavez – 70 AB’s and not a single walk. I believe he has the most AB’s out of any player without a walk. He’s a generic backup catcher. While he offers very little with the bat, he has done a good job controlling the running game.

B

Michael Barrett – Got injured early in the season and haven’t seen him in a Jays uni since.

Incomplete

Lyle Overbay – The 2nd biggest surprise of the season. Based on what I saw the previous 2 seasons, I thought Overbay was pretty much finished as a solid regular. He has been productive every month at the plate and on the field.

B+

Kevin Millar – Stick a fork in him because he has nothing left in the tank. I didn’t expect much from him at the beginning of the season. At this point, he’s a waste of a roster spot.

It’s time for him to Cowboy Up out of the Jays clubhouse.

C-

Aaron Hill – Welcome your 2009 all-star Aaron Hill! Didn’t someone on this site suggest Aaron Hill and Joe Inglett should have competed for the starting 2B job in the off-season? Would I like Hill to be more selective? I thought so until I saw that he is hitting .373/.368/.627 on the first pitch. The magical Age 27 season………..

A

John McDonald – He must have a lot of splinters…..

Incomplete

Marco Scutaro – For a player with 23 doubles, his slugging percentage is pretty low at .414. Depending on your point of view, either Jeter or Scutaro has been the best SS in the AL this season. At age 33, he is having a career year. He’s frequently on base, the smartest base runner on the Jays, and deserves serious consideration for a Gold Glove. If he isn’t at the all-star game, something is seriously wrong.

A

Scott Rolen – The biggest surprise of the season. Despite the hot September last year, I thought Rolen was finished. While he’s not hitting a lot of HR’s, he is pounding out the doubles. Does any player in MLB have a faster HR trot than Rolen?

A

Jose Bautista – Punch against LHP and Judy against RHP.

B

Travis Snider – Got off to a good start and than flamed out. I like the power he brings from the 9 spot though.

C

Adam Lind – A professional hitter. The hitting he displayed in the minors has finally showed up in The Show. He’s knocked around RHP and LHP. He’s a lot more selective at the plate and has demonstrated the ability to foul off tough pitches when there’s 2 strikes in the count. He doesn’t have a strong arm, but he’s good enough to play in the OF.

A

Vernon Wells – This is a family approved site so I won’t say anything else.

F

Alex Rios – This is a family approved site so I won’t say anything else.

F

Roy Halladay – One of the best pitchers in baseball. I wouldn’t mind seeing him in a Red Sox or Yanks uniform once his contract expires……….. Great players deserve a chance to compete for a World Series.

A+

Ricky Romero – How can a player be so bad to mediocre in the minors, be so good in the Majors? I doubt it’s just Brad Arnsberg. I never thought I would say this but Romero has ace potential.

A

Scott Richmond – Because of his background, people are waiting any minute for the roof to cave in. In his 112+ innings in the Majors, he has been an above average starter. He gives up way too many HR’s and is getting crushed by LHH but he’s excellent against RHH and has a very healthy K rate. You get all this for $400,000.

B+

Brian Tallet – If you look up league average pitcher, you will see a picture of Brian Tallet. Is he the next Doug Davis, Dave Bush, or Jon Garland?

B

Scott Downs – What an embarrassing way to get injured. When he was healthy, he was lights out.

A-

Jason Frasor – Great time to have a career year. The changeup will probably add at least a million dollars to his bank account. RHH are only slugging .200. I would like to see him used more often.

A-

Brandon League – One day he’s excellent, the next day he’s awful. With 134 games under his belt, you could almost call him a veteran. I still don’t even know if he’s a future closer or 12th man on a pitching staff. Something isn’t clicking and I don’t know what it is.

C-

Jesse Carlson – You could make a case he doesn’t even belong in the Majors. Hitters have clearly figured him out.

C-

Shawn Camp – Hasn’t been good, hasn’t been bad. Every bullpen in baseball has this type of pitcher.

C+

BJ Ryan – Do you enjoy kicking somebody while they are down? I don’t, so I’ll stop here.

F

Casey Janssen, Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Robert Ray, Brad Mills, Jesse Litsch, Dick Hayhurst, Jeremy Accardo

Incomplete

christaylor - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#201965) #
C- for Millar and Fs for Rios and Wells? That's not right.

At any rate for Rios as of yesterday, double his line and you get his 2008 line with about 1 less base hit a week. His ISO is up (IRC) from 2008. I think people are getting transfixed on his OPS/OPS+ number and not realizing that it the drop is pretty much all batting average based. He does seem less disciplined at the plate but he does seem better (overall) in the field. Yes, I yelled at the TV too when he committed those baserunning gaffes... I think we ought to accept Rios for the player he is, not the player we know he can be. The player he is OK. If he matures we might see more seasons like 2007, if not, no biggie. He and Wells anchor the OF defense.

Full disclosure: I understand the sentiment of the poster but listening to Rios/Wells get beaten up on Jays talk and on this site isn't really any fun and personally, I don't think they're the problem the team has dropped from its high as they weren't doing anything then either... yes, Wells is overpaid but all signs point to Godfrey on that one.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#201968) #

Even if it wasn't baseball-related, what did you do this Canada Day, and what do you still plan on doing?

I was telling Joe this in a Facebook post this afternoon. I sent an e-mail to my work group here in North Texas today announcing that it was Canada Day and the unanimous response -- including from the Canadian expatriate who sits next to me -- was "Oh." To be fair, the bosslady, whose hubby is a Canadian (he's a hockey coach, naturally), wasn't around to raise the ol' Maple Leaf.

 

katman - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#201969) #
Agree with christaylor on Rios. The analogy I see is the slacker at school who was smart enough to get by with B and C grades, not living up to potential but not flunking out either. By season's end, my guess is he winds up being about major league average, if he doesn't put it together and surge. My bet's on major league average. Which makes him a B-/C+, points deducted for boneheadedness. C.

Wells, with his production, RISP totals, and range stats, has been killing this team. He works hard at it, and it isn't "bounce him from the majors" numbers yet, so I'm not inclined to issue an F. But I would issue a D-.

BJ Ryan, unfortunately, is an F. Someone else with his stats would be in Vegas now, or New Hampshire. Jesse Carlson, who is coming dangerously close, may be in Vegas soon. I know he's trying, too, but something is clearly not working. We have little choice but to stick with him on some level, and hope it all clicks at some point in his contract. A guy with BJ's work ethic and Arnsberg to coach... who knows, it might. Probably not soon, though I hope I'm wrong about that.
scottt - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#201970) #
Let's just wait and see if Wells and Rios bounce back, but I'd like to see Scutaro, Hill, Rolen, Lind, and Overbay in the top of the lineup until that happens.

5-0 shutout today, but still only 1 hit with runner in scoring position.

Ricky's changeup is so good, it took that long to develop it.

And now, we've finally moving to that spanking new hitter friendly park that no team should be able to afford. I hope we hit a ton there.



snider - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#201971) #
I agree with the F for Rios.  He leads the team in SO, GIDP has an OBP of 0.319 and made another bonehead play in the field today. 

Its got to be demoralizing for smart ballplayers like Scutaro and Rolen to watch this guy day after day.  


greenfrog - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#201972) #
The frustrating thing for me is the gap between Wells and Rios's potential and their actual performance. Both are athletic and in (or close to) their prime. Both have shown flashes of brilliance, and have had very good seasons in the past. The biggest thing I've noticed is how often they're chasing pitches out of the zone (in contrast to, say, Lind, who has become extremely disciplined at the plate). But I guess that's obvious--virtually every struggling player is by definition chasing pitchers' pitches. It just seems like until you get that problem sorted, any resurgence is likely to be short-lived.

But I agree that it's no fun getting on them, listening to fans boo, JaysTalk callers piss and moan, etc. It's painful for all concerned, and I just hope they get their mojo back soon (preferably sometime during the flight to NYC).
brent - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#201973) #
You thought Overbay was done? I spent last year commenting that Overbay was still getting over his sapped power from his broken hand. I think that is Wells problem too.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 01 2009 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#201976) #
Cito is clearly enamored with [Millar]... Personally I'd rather see Overbay get the starts vs. LHP at 1B

I assume people just haven't paying attention lately. Millar did appear in 20 of 25 games after Snider went down. In the process he played himself right out of Gaston's rotation. He plays now when Gaston wants to give someone a day off.  Did no one notice that before Wells' day off today Millar  had been glued to the bench in 7 of the previous 9 games? And wasn't that Lyle Overbay starting at first base against the man who ranks 10th on the all-time list for career wins by a LH pitcher? Your wish has already been granted.

As for Wells, I tend to assume that if his problem was physical and related to last year's wrist injury, we might have been more likely to see some indication of it when he came back from it last year.  But au contraire - his bat upon his return last year was terrific, recent wrist injury or no. I also notice that this very year he's hitting .321/.354/.485 when he's not at the Rogers Centre. It's when he gets in front of the fans at home that he falls right off the edge of the earth - .172/.249/.287.

 So I think it's in his head. Completely and totally. I think he's pressing.
uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#201977) #
Lind has been flat out one of the best hitters in all of baseball this year, in his first full year in the bigs.
lexomatic - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 02:01 AM EDT (#201979) #
Magpie, I've been figuring for awhile Wells problem is mental.. i'm just glad there's anecdotal evidence to support that.  the question is whether he will do anyrhing about it on his own
williams_5 - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#201980) #

I think he just needs one cathartic blow-up at home after a strike out or pop up - just go ballistic - snap the bat over his knee, then storm to the dugout and lose it on the Gatorade cooler. Fans will respond with "Hey, at least he showed a little emotion," and he'll come back refreshed and ready to rake.

Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?

92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 04:31 AM EDT (#201981) #
"And wasn't that Lyle Overbay starting at first base against the man who ranks 10th on the all-time list for career wins by a LH pitcher? Your wish has already been granted."

Jamie Moyer is terrible (6.05era, not sure why his career win total has any relevance to who he is today), Overbay for his career hits .353/.389/.706 vs. Moyer (after an 0/1 and a BB), and the Jays had faced 2 lefties the previous nights vs. Philly. I'm not too sure that was much of a sign that my wish was granted.
Barry Bonnell - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#201984) #
I'm very curious as to whether Wells goes back to the 3 spot or if yesterday's changes become more permanent.
Magpie - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#201985) #
Gaston already confirmed that Adam Lind will be hitting third. As of yesterday, he hadn't decided where to bat Wells. Bet on sixth.
lexomatic - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#201986) #
Ron:
I also have to speak up as vehemently as possible against your comments re: Halladay.
The baseball fan in me just loves to watch Halladay pitch, but I would absolutely be crushed to see him pitching for either the Red Sox or Yankees. I would absolutely mind that. I hope if he leaves town he at least goes to the AL West if not the NL.
John Northey - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#201987) #
Given I'd like for Halladay to go to the HOF even if he leaves I'd hope if he leaves (and I hope he doesn't) that he'd go to the NL (easier league) and ideally the LA Dodgers who are contenders, have a giant budget, major media market, and a pitchers park historically.  That should knock his ERA down more and increase his odds of getting more Cy Young awards while getting more playoff appearances and attention while not coming back to haunt the Jays on a regular basis (as would be the case with NYY or Boston).
Mick Doherty - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#201988) #

As the site's resident Official Yankee Fan, obviously I'd love to see Halladay in pinstripes ... but that said, I hope he doesn't leave Toronto. The guy IS the Blue Jays to much of North America. I suspect he knows that and wouldn't necessarily want to dive into the Bronx mess or the hellhole that is Beantown just to try to get a ring (the Yankees haven't won one this century, incidentally.)

I hope he retires a Jay. And incidentally, I'd be shocked if he didn't end up in the HOF, almost regardless. Apologies to Dave Steib, but the best pitcher in franchise history and a multiple (mark it down) Cy Young Award winner? He may not get to 200 wins -- he's at what, 141 or something? -- but the new era of starting pitcher is going to strt getting Hall Calls without that magic number and without a Dean-like or Koufax-like injury exception.

John Northey - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#201989) #
Eh, I doubt that one.  Pitchers with under 200 wins have a nightmare getting in and will continue to do so I think.  I recall hearing that 300 game winners were gone forever once a couple current pitchers retired multiple times since the late 80's.  I seriously doubt they are gone forever just yet. 

Heading into 2009 the wins for the 2000's leaders were...
135: Randy Johnson & Tim Hudson
134: Mike Mussina, Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte
129: Roy Oswalt
128: Jamie Moyer
123: Barry Zito
122: Mark Buehrle & Roy Halladay
120: Livan Hernandez

Any of these guys could be the decade leader come the end of the year (aka the Jack Morris trophy).  In the 1990's the leader was Greg Maddux at 176 followed by (150+) Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson.  The 1980's were led by Jack Morris (only guy over 140, Stieb was dead on 140 for #2).  The 1970's were led by Jim Palmer's 186 with 9 others at 150+.

So by years end we will have the following over 140 - Randy Johnson (at 143 right now), Andy Pettitte (at 142 right now) and maybe Roy Oswalt (133 at the moment),  Jamie Moyer (134 at the moment), Mark Buehrle (129 right now, very doubtful he'll make it), and Roy Halladay (132 at the moment).  So we'll see at least as many as the 1980's did with a shot at more.  So who is to say that the 2010's won't see a revival like the 1990's did (despite losing 1/2 a season)? Ask the pitchers of the 80's if they were let in with a lower win total (such as Ron Guidry who had a case despite his 170 wins and others like Jack Morris who are still out).
Dewey - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#201991) #
I think he [Wells] just needs one cathartic blow-up at home after a strike out or pop up - just go ballistic - snap the bat over his knee, then storm to the dugout and lose it on the Gatorade cooler.

Yeah, that always helps.  Well, sometimes, maybe, in Little League.  But then you have to buy a new cooler.  Any other ideas?
Chuck - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#201993) #

I think he just needs one cathartic blow-up at home after a strike out or pop up - just go ballistic - snap the bat over his knee, then storm to the dugout and lose it on the Gatorade cooler

Who would experience the catharsis, you or Wells?

Why is visual evidence of his frustration so imperative? Is it not plausible that he is extremely frustrated even if he doesn't wear his heart on his sleeve? Hissy fits are not always signs of passion. Sometimes they are just signs of immaturity.

Magpie - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#201994) #
I think he just needs one cathartic blow-up

Maybe not. What, after all, was the answer when the Dean revoked the Delta Tau Chi charter and tossed all their stuff into the road? Say it with me....

ROAD TRIP!

He's hitting .321 on the road this year already, and a few games in Coors II might work wonders.

Makes me wanna shout...
zeppelinkm - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#201995) #

I don't know where this idea that Wells does not display his frustration come from.

I hear him often, on my TV, voicing his displeasure with a pop-up or K with 1 or 2 choice words. You can imagine what they are. He is clearly passionate, I don't doubt this. He just has to relax, which is hard to do when you're the face of the franchise (non pitching side) and you're performing far below everybody's expectations.

uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#201999) #

 

 

J.Morneau (28): 298ab, 20db, 19hr, 64rbi, .309/.389/.574/.963
M.Teixeira (29): 284ab, 22db, 20hr, 60rbi, .278/.386/.567/.953
M.Cabrera (26): 284ab, 16db, 16hr, 47rbi, .331/.395/.556/.951
A.Lind (25): 302ab, 25db, 16hr, 53rbi, .315/.389/.556/.946
E.Longoria (23): 276ab, 24db, 16hr, 63rbi, .297/.377/.558/.935

Those are the top 5 hitters in the AL halfway through the season who have played full time the whole year without missing any time to injuries.

 

Adam Lind is good.

 

Ron - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#202003) #
You thought Overbay was done? I spent last year commenting that Overbay was still getting over his sapped power from his broken hand. I think that is Wells problem too.

 Considering he put up a 85 OPS+ in 2007, 107 OPS+ in 2008, and was entering his age 32 season, yes I thought he was finished. Pecota also had Overbay hitting .255/.332/.396

I also have to speak up as vehemently as possible against your comments re: Halladay.
The baseball fan in me just loves to watch Halladay pitch, but I would absolutely be crushed to see him pitching for either the Red Sox or Yankees. I would absolutely mind that. I hope if he leaves town he at least goes to the AL West if not the NL.

I’m a Yankees and Red Sox fan so I would love to see Doc pitch for either team. Doc will never get the chance to pitch in a World Series under the current Jays regime. Unlike the Jays, the Red Sox and Yankees are contenders every season for the big prize. I know Doc loves Toronto, but he’s stashed away in a foreign Country on a non-contending ballclub. He deserves to pitch on the biggest stage with a big market US team such as the Yankees or Red Sox.

Dewey - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#202004) #
I'm pretty sure Magpie has a data table that tracks BPFGCS (batting performance following gatorade cooler smashing). Not a pretty sight.  It's not unlike the one for BBOKIF (breaking bat over knee in frustration).  This latter has an interesting corollary:  players not named Bo Jackson sometimes ended up on the injury list after attempting the manoeuvre.  A complex subject.
Chuck - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#202006) #

The Seattle Mariners third baseman tonight is... Chris Woodward.

chris_jays - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#202008) #
Snider is in the vegas lineup at DH

Dellucci is not playing.
pretty strong chance he'll be up at the big club tomorrow.

LouisvilleJayFan - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#202009) #
I’m a Yankees and Red Sox fan so I would love to see Doc pitch for either team.

How is this possible? It's like being a UNC fan AND a Duke fan, the two don't mix. Further, I forget who said it, but rooting for the Yankees (and Red Sox for that matter) is like rooting for the house in Vegas.
brent - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#202011) #

Beltre decided to have surgery. Lookout Landing already determined that Woodward was actually an improvement at SS for Seatle over Betancourt.

The next ten games (or 13 if you include the Bos series after the ASG) are going to determine whether JP becomes a seller or buyer. These are basically the most important games of the year in determining the future course of the season. Now is a good time to go on a win streak (hint, hint).

Dave Till - Thursday, July 02 2009 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#202012) #
I agree with Magpie that Wells is pressing. I always thought that people asked too much of him: his job requirements are to hit like Carlos Delgado and field like Devon White. No problem! If he wasn't trying, or if he was out of shape, or something like that, I'd knock him. It's not his fault he's been given all that money.

Compare him to Scott Rolen. After two years of shoulder problems, no one expects anything from Rolen. In Toronto, the pressure is on Wells and Rios to produce. So Rolen is free, and is performing awesomely. (What a baseball player he is - he's even good at sliding.) Right now, Rolen must be in Baseball Heaven.

The lesson from this year: younger players sometimes get better: Hill, Lind and Romero have all taken huge steps forward this year. So props to J.P.: they were all his selections.

The Jays, right now, are a team that needs two starting pitchers and one big bat. Which is precisely what the Yankees acquired in the offseason. Oh well.

Thomas - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#202014) #
How is this possible? It's like being a UNC fan AND a Duke fan, the two don't mix. Further, I forget who said it, but rooting for the Yankees (and Red Sox for that matter) is like rooting for the house in Vegas.

I believe it was Rick Reilly, as much as I otherwise dislike him, who had one of the best lines about the Yankees when he said it was like rooting for the bulldozer against the tulip.

StephenT - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#202015) #
The tulips were league champions last year.
Thomas - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#202016) #
Maybe so, but that's no reason to start rooting for the bulldozer.
williams_5 - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 02:53 AM EDT (#202017) #

Dewey; Chuck : My comment was tongue in cheek (I thought the over-the-top description of such a blow up was evidence of this)...I dream about the raking, not the cooler lying on the dugout floor.

Chuck - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 06:21 AM EDT (#202019) #

My comment was tongue in cheek

You're an infrequent poster so I don't know you and didn't know to pick up on that. Many, especially on talk radio, have expressed your position sans tongue, sans cheek.

Communication via the internet needs a sarcasm font. Smileys can't be the best alternative.

China fan - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#202020) #

Doc will never get the chance to pitch in a World Series under the current Jays regime.... he's stashed away in a foreign Country on a non-contending ballclub.

Wow, another fan with a crystal ball who is absolutely certain about the results of this season -- and the next 5 or 10 seasons too!   There's hardly any point in us watching the Jays this season or the next few seasons, because it's already been decreed that the team has zero chance of contending....   No need for us to discuss baseball any further, the results are already preordained by those who know the future!

Mick Doherty - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#202024) #

Oh, hush, CF. You're in a foreign country, what could YOU know?

(Now, where's that sarcasm font?)

 

westcoast dude - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#202025) #
No, Mick, you're in a foreign country.
DStieb37 - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#202026) #

Ron -

Pretty accurate report card!

I wonder how many other readers are sitting here wishing the Jays pulled the trigger on the Rios for Lincicum deal a while back.....

Paul D - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#202027) #

Everything I've read said that Rios for Lincecum never existed.  That's the deal the Jays were offering, but the Giants said no, and countered with Rios for Cain.  (Not that Cain doesn't look pretty good though.
Gerry - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#202028) #
Bastian says that Delucci has been called up and Adams DFA'd.
Chuck - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#202029) #
I wonder how many other readers are sitting here wishing the Jays pulled the trigger on the Rios for Lincicum deal a while back.....

Sabean was the one who nixed the deal for Lincecum.
Chuck - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#202030) #
Dang, I'm a little slow on the refresh button. Yeah, what Paul said.
zeppelinkm - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#202031) #

Ron is clearly extremely pessimistic on the Blue Jays. He put them down for 75 wins this year in the prediction contest. His report card was a fair analysis of the team, and seemed objective. I am having a difficult time understanding why he is unable to maintain this objective approach when looking at the team as a whole and going forward, since he's now proclaiming that they will never win a World Series under this current regime.  Despite the fact that JP Riccardi, despite all his flaws has clearly shown improvement in virtually every aspect of the job year over year. Some areas took longer to improve, but he has made steady gains. Let's see if he can finally get off the fence when it comes to being a buyer or seller, should the situation warrant it come late July.

The Jays could still clearly finish with 75 wins, but I bet if you asked Ron what the Jays record would be come July 3rd, he wouldn't have guessed said anything over .500, especially if you had told him that the rotation would be Halladay + Richmond + Romero + Tallet + <Insert Random double A or triple A> pitcher.

A lot of people seem to have an extremely hard time properly evaluating the talent level on this team. Me included, I put them down for 85 or 86 wins, but not if you had told me what would happen to their rotation...

christaylor - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#202033) #
The Jays, right now, are a team that needs two starting pitchers and one big bat. Which is precisely what the Yankees acquired in the offseason. Oh well. ...and paid nearly half a billion dollars for those contracts. Not going to happen. On the positive side if two of Marcum, Litsch and McGowan can come back (although Litsch probably won't be ready until mid-season) and Snider can have a breakout year next year - those needs will be met. I'd say there's at least a 1/10 chance of that happening. However there's a better than even chance that something will go wrong with one of the parts going right now. I think that's what frustrates me most about the Sox/Yanks, I don't mind the stars getting huge contracts but it seems that they've got depth everywhere. That said, 9-4 over the next 13 games and this team is right back in the discussion. The most frustrating thing about the Jays slide is that it seems to be proving the "strength of schedule" people correct. I don't believe the strength of schedule matters as much as people think it does - even "bad" teams tend to have at least one good-great pitcher, never mind that the spread in winning percentage from the best and worst teams is usally in the range of .200 to .250.
Jim - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#202035) #

Wow, another fan with a crystal ball who is absolutely certain about the results of this season -- and the next 5 or 10 seasons too!  

It's good to see such optimism.  Rogers loves fans like you, checking the attendence though you are in a definite minority.

The 2009 season is clearly slipping away.  The Jays have gotten brilliant performances from Roy, Rolen, Scutaro, Hill and Overbay and they are still only 4 games above .500 against the much easier half of their schedule.

It's clear why the team has been 'targeting' 2010.  It's not because they think that's when their pitching will mature and hit their stride, it's because it's the last year that the team can keep Roy Halladay and field a roster of major league quality players.  They have stuck with Riccardi and this is where they are, they need a miracle to make the 2009 postseason, they are chasing the three best teams in baseball with a roster that is clearly a notch below New York, Boston and Tampa.  To compete past 2010 they need devine intervention in the form of an angel who makes Vernon Wells' contract disappear.

The team will have two options both of with lead to dark days:

A.  Resign Halladay at upwards of 20MM+ a year.  This leads to ~50% of the team's payroll to be spend on 2 players.  There is no way to compete with Boston and New York when you are paying 40MM for 23 players on your roster.  (Please do not bring up Tampa:  If you've lost 90+ games for 11 years then yes you can put yourself in position to compete for a short period of time by virtue of drafting in the top 3 for a decade, this is not an option for the 2011-2014 Blue Jays)

B.  Allow Halladay to leave, most likely to a team in the division.  This leads to a fan revolt.  Attendance plummets which causes the payroll to fall even farther, the money that would have been spent on Halladay isn't spent on anyone and the team is parked in last for the next half-decade. 

It's heresy at Battersbox to point out that the farm system is not going to provide enough to compete.  Certainly a couple of the starters will have nice careers, and Snider still has a chance to be a great player, but this team does not have a young lineup and has a number of near-term needs for position players.   Look at the position players in the BB offseason Top 10.  Beyond Snider who also struggled, it's a who's who of disappointment:  Arencibia/Cooper/Ahrens/Jackson/Campbell... not a whole lot to be positive about there. 

The 2006 post-season Top 30 prospect list contains exactly 1 position player who has established himself as a major league player.  Adam Lind.  (Unless you are giving Ryan Roberts credit for his bench role in Arizona this season).   The Riccardi era Jays have been able to develop pitchers (although there is enough injury smoke to wonder if there is a fire), but have not been able to generate enough position players to be competitive in this division. 

Is it difficult to be stuck in the toughest division in American professional sports?  Certainly.  That's why it takes excellent leadership to overcome the inherent disadvantages.  This front office has shown that it can't win in this market, and because of a few decisions like the Wells contract it's about to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.  It's been talked about often that when Riccardi took over the organization was a mess.  While true, in the next 3 years he's going to leave it worse off then he found it.

 

ayjackson - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#202037) #

They have stuck with Riccardi and this is where they are, they need a miracle to make the 2009 postseason

I'd say for most, their odds are better now than they were in March.  But for me, some things have gone well this year and some have gone poorly and we're right about where I thought we'd be.

Gerry - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#202038) #
I have one comment about the Halladay issue post 2010.  I heard him being interviewed on ESPN earlier this season and he said he liked playing in Toronto because he could go out around the town and not be mobbed.  It wouldn't surprise me if Halladay turned down the biggest dollars and played where he felt comfortable, not where the biggest payday is.
China fan - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#202046) #

....he's now proclaiming that they will never win a World Series under this current regime....

No, actually he proclaimed that the Jays will never even PLAY in a World Series under the current regime. He also labelled them a "non-contending team." 

As for me, I'm not a blind optimist -- I'm not predicting that the Jays will be in the World Series within the next few years, I'm merely saying that the possibility cannot be completely ruled out.  And I'm saying that we cannot completely rule out the possibility that the Jays could be a contender for years to come. Why?  Because the conventional wisdom in baseball is so often proven wrong.  Conventional wisdom declared that Ricky Romero was a complete bust, an embarrassment to Ricciardi and the Jays scouts.  Instead, he was the AL rookie-of-the-month for June and has the 6th-best ERA in the league.  Conventional wisdom a year ago said Scott Richmond was not even a prospect. Instead he is one of the top 20 pitchers in the league by ERA. Conventional wisdom said Scott Rolen was washed up, a mere shadow of his old self. Instead he is the 2nd-leading hitter in the league by batting average.  Conventional wisdom said the Jays had no chance this year.  Instead they were among the league leaders in several offensive and defensive categories for months.  When people declare with confidence that the Jays cannot be contenders, I look at it as conventional wisdom, which may or may not be proven right.

 

China fan - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#202047) #
By the way, I also agree that Ron's report card on the Jays was quite accurate, except for the "F" for Wells and Rios.  Yeah, they're playing far below their potential, but I think it's an exaggeration to give them an "F".  Otherwise, a pretty good report card.  It doesn't, however, add up to "permanent non-contender" -- that's the part that I object to.
John Northey - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#202049) #
With Halladay it depends on how much the Jays offer and what he figures the risk of getting hurt in 2010 is and if there is somewhere he wants to play and what his family thinks.  If the Jays make a Delgado offer (silly low) then he'll walk.  If he avoids risk when it comes to finances then he'll sign this offseason as long as the offer is reasonable.  If he or his family is sick of crossing the border then he will be gone.  Halladay is from Colorado which means, unless he wants his next contract to be his last and lose any shot at the HOF, he will not be going home (I know if I was a pitcher I'd avoid Colorado). 

A potential plus:  He is involved with Sick Kids which is a premium hospital for children so if that is a big issue to him he might want to stick around (anyone know where the best children's hospitals in the USA are?).  He and his wife (and kids I suspect) are members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints which seems to suggest they would be the types who value privacy (given the rep that church has) and since no MLB team is in Utah (the base for the church) I doubt it will negatively affect his signing here (Ontario is listed as an area with temples for this church, and if they are practicing then that would be important).

His offseason home appears to be Palm Harbor, Florida which suggests a Florida team or Atlanta would be the biggest risks however given the Florida teams are terminally cheap it isn't the worst place he could be living.

An interesting quote I just found...
‘It bothers him to make as much money as he does,’ Brandi, 34, said. ‘He feels like he’s out there doing his job. Should he get paid? Of course he should be paid. But there’s a lot of people out there that work hard. He works hard at what he does, but it doesn’t mean that other people out there don’t deserve those kinds of cheques, too. It’s kind of humbling. (His charity work) is his way of paying back.’”

Trying to dig into tea leaves for anything outside of money that would influence his ultimate choice.  Hopefully stability is vital to him (and it appears to be) so he'll stick around.
Mike Green - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#202052) #
The weakness of the current club is depth.  This was foreseeable at the start of the season.  The most visible, and easiest to fix, spot was DH/LF.  This did not have to involve the expenditure of huge amounts of money (Abreu signed for $5 million). 



92-93 - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#202053) #
"(anyone know where the best children's hospitals in the USA are?)"

Boston. And Philadelphia. Both prime landing spots for Doc, you'd think.
AWeb - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#202054) #
By the way, I also agree that Ron's report card on the Jays was quite accurate, except for the "F" for Wells ... I think it's an exaggeration to give them an "F".

How bad would Wells have to play in order to justify an "F" if the first half hasn't done it? By the numbers at fangraphs.com, he's been the worst fielder in the majors this year, and possibly the worst player overall (due in part to playing everyday - health isn't good in a bad player). Yes, defensive stats are prone to small sample size fluctuations, but still...worst in the majors isn't a complete mistake. Throw in terrible hitting at at .689 OPS, and Wells deserves an F. I don't particularly care if he's only struggling at home, since they play half the games there, and he's only been "average Wells" on the road. He'll likely be better in the 2nd half, but his first half deserves an F.  June was the worst month yet. Ortiz has shown players can turn it around no matter how screwed up they look for a few months, so c'mon Wells, time to start earning that playing time. A hot second half from Wells makes the Jays a contender again.
zeppelinkm - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#202060) #

I agree with the F for Wells. You have to think of a report card as assigning grades, with the most basic distinction being between passing and failing, then how well you did if you did pass. Given his talent, he is falling drastically short of expectations. I'd give him an F too. He would get a D or a C if he was posting a merely poor season (10 HR's, 40ish RBI's, .265 - .270 average) and playing merely below average defence. He would get an A or B if he was playing average D and posting an OPS+ in the 120 range.  Something like that...

Dr B - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#202069) #
The weakness of the current club is depth.  This was foreseeable at the start of the season.  The most visible, and easiest to fix, spot was DH/LF.  This did not have to involve the expenditure of huge amounts of money (Abreu signed for $5 million).

Yeah, the lack of depth was forseeable, however, the possibility of contention this year was not. A somewhat feeble looking Jays line-up has been successful beyond all expectations. Who would have believed Marco Scutaro or Adam Lind would be this good? Or Ricky Romero, Brian Tallet or Scott Richmond? So while it would have been sensible to obtain depth, I suspect management are as surprised as any one. If they had thought the Jays would be this good, you'd hope they'd have shopped around for an Abreu before the season started.

More problematic is now that the Jays have shown themselves contenders, management has not filled that DH hole; they are probaby going to wait too long for it to make a difference. Anyone confident that JP is going to acquire a big bat? I'd be more confident if the Jays had that depth to trade. Anyone really want to give up a Cecil, a Snider or a Rzepcynski?

It's a pity JP has sat on the fence during lost seasons; the Jays would be in a more flexible position today.


Dewey - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#202073) #
It's a pity JP has sat on the fence during lost seasons; the Jays would be in a more flexible position today.

Help me to understand this please.  If JP had traded away young talent for some big bats in the past, then we would now have lots more young talent to trade away for more big bats?  How does that work exactly?  Or maybe you mean something else about being "flexible"?
christaylor - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#202074) #
I don't want to put words in his mouth but I read that as the other way around - that if JP did more Stairs for Castro trades during 06, 07 and 08 we'd have more youth in the system and be in a better position to trade youth to fill the DH hole.

That what he said, I think, but I think the comment is contradicted by JP himself many times when he's said that over that past few years teams have been very unwilling to make veteran for youth deals. I tend to believe him on this score. Also while in hindsight it'd be a good deal, trading Marcum or Rios during any of those "lost seasons" wouldn't have made much sense (and apparently those were the the sort of players always mentioned to JP in a trade).

Tradewise, I think we ought not to complain about JPs recent efforts. Rolen and Scutaro have worked out very well.
Dr B - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#202075) #
Help me to understand this please.  If JP had traded away young talent for some big bats in the past, then we would now have lots more young talent to trade away for more big bats?  How does that work exactly?  Or maybe you mean something else about being "flexible"?

Oops. I should have been more precise. There are two sides to fall off a fence! Rather than "going for it" in lost seasons, he should have cut and run. Yes, you risk losing fans and hence money. The rest of it, however, is all upside: salary saved, extra talent in the farm from the trade and possibly higher draft picks. Obviously if you have more money and a deeper farm system you have more flexibility to make trades now. I think this is the first year in JP's reign that you can make a plausible argument for the Jays to be a buyer rather than a seller (have I forgotten a season?).

Dr B - Friday, July 03 2009 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#202076) #
I couldn't have said it better myself, Chris! (And wouldn't if I had refreshed my browser)

Perhaps the tide has changed a bit. I don't think veterans-for-prospects trades are as common as they were in the Ash years.




Jays2010 - Saturday, July 04 2009 @ 01:24 AM EDT (#202077) #

I have one wish for the 2010 Blue Jays (sorry, but I still believe 2009 is merely a "development" year and 86 wins would be fine by me). My one wish (other than good health I suppose...two wishes!) is that the Jays outperform their run differential. That's all. Just some good luck for a change. I am not quite sure what JP can do if the Jays refuse to distribute their runs more evenly (or even favourably for once). 83 wins (+54) in 2007, 86 wins (+104, 2nd best in AL) in 2008 and so far in 2009, 42-39 (+38). Of course, when the AL East is +333 in 2008...

Really, far more important than anything JP can do is for MLB to balance the schedule, axe the divisions and have the top 4 teams in the AL make the playoffs every year (yes, Wilner's suggestion). Quite frankly, if the Jays resign Halladay and are willing to spend $50 million on the non-Wells/Halladay part of the team, I see them contending for a top 4 spot in the AL from 2010 until whenever Halladay's contract expires/the other 23 players require a salary beyond $50 million. But this does not seem like an option in the forseeable future. So let's focus on why the Jays could be a playoff team if they simply distribute their run differential effectively in 2010...

A Halladay/Romero/Marcum/Cecil/Rzepcynzki 2010 rotation (assuming McGowan isn't healthy) could be the best in the majors, espescially with the elite infield defence (assuming Scoot resigns). And Richmond/Tallet/Purcey/Mills are pretty solid backup options (though Purcey is zapping my last nerve). Frankly, it would be pretty hard to take Richmond out of the rotation and Tallet is a nice average starter (for anyone who wanted Paul Byrd). Either way, the 2008 rotation was dominant and the 2010 rotation looks like it could be even better. It could be worse as well, but certainly the potential of JP's young arms (and Halladay) are evident.

The bullpen has shown that it can be very good. It was excellent in 2008 and while BJ Ryan seems to be done, a solid return by Accardo and hopefully Janssen along with contributions from guys like Castro and maybe even Farquar could have the 'pen amongst the best in baseball again in 2010. Bullpens are unpredictable...hence, based on the evidence, nobody should say with utmost certainty that the Jays bullpen cannot be very good in 2010.

The 2009 Blue Jays, in my opinion, have proven that they have a much greater potential for hitting than the 2008 version. Sure, it is difficult to predict that all of the Jays "surprise" hitters (Lind/Rolen/Hill/Overbay/Scoot) will perform as well in 2010. But, Wells and Rios HAVE to improve (I hope). The catcher is the catcher, but DH could be filled with Snider hitting 30 HR's and 100 RBIs. Sure, nobody will predict it, but obviously it's possible. I can't see DH being as much of a black hole as it has been in the first half of 2009. Regardless, the 2010 Jays should hit better than the 2008 Jays.

So, basically, I believe the 2010 Jays could be as good in pretty much every area as the 2008 Jays and better in some areas (SS if Scoot resigns, DH + LF with Lind/Snider, 2B with Hill etc). Is it completely unreasonable to expect the Jays to be +100 in the run differential department in 2010? So...all the Jays need is some luck for once...

Finally, even though I doubt it happens, I would love to see a contract extension for JP. He has clearly improved at his job and, quite frankly, he has fielded some very good teams that people would take notice of if the schedule was balanced. He doesn't have an unlimited payroll and he didn't dwell at ther bottom of the AL East like TBay and snagged a bunch of high draft picks, sell off players every year for assets (Kazmir!) and have a roster with a bunch of holes that could allow surprise performances (i.e. Pena/Zobrist etc).

P.S. In defence of JP...sure he didn't draft Halladay...but he didn't draft Wells/Rios either. But he (Paul Godfrey in Wells' case we hope) gave all of them their current contracts. So if the popular belief is to give Ash credit for drafting Halladay (though Halladay had never appeared in an All-Star game until JP arrived in 2002 - hence JP didn't inherit an "all-star" per se), then we must curse Ash for drafting Wells and Rios because without these players, the Jays would have a ton more payroll and could replace their current production with a few million dollars. Curse Ash!

Dewey - Saturday, July 04 2009 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#202080) #
You risk losing fans and hence money. The rest of it, however, is all upside: salary saved, extra talent in the farm from the trade and possibly higher draft picks. Obviously if you have more money and a deeper farm system you have more flexibility to make trades now.

O.K., thanks for the clarification DrB (and chris).  But losing fans and money wouldn't be acceptable to Rogers, would it?

This entire issue just confirms my sense of the absolute futility of second-guessing virtually any GM:  there are simply too many (often hidden) considerations to be reconciled for us to make easy judgements, however much fun it is to do that.
Jim - Saturday, July 04 2009 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#202083) #

A Halladay/Romero/Marcum/Cecil/Rzepcynzki 2010 rotation (assuming McGowan isn't healthy) could be the best in the majors

More likely it's the fourth best in the division, nevermind baseball.

New York has Sabathia, A.J., Joba, Hughes, Wang, plus off season signing.

Tampa has Shields, Garza, Neimann, Price, Kazmir, Sonnastine, prospects.

Boston has Lester, Beckett, Wakefield, Masterson, Bucholtz, Tazawa, Matsuzaka.

Others that I'd clearly favor off the top of my head.
Detroit: Verlander, Jackson, Porcello, Galarraga, whoever

SF: Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez, Bumgartner

LA: Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, Wolf, whoever

Cinci: Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Owings, Arroyo, Bailey

 

BTW, whoever runs the site, woot.net is horribly slow.

Ryan Day - Saturday, July 04 2009 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#202088) #

More likely it's the fourth best in the division, nevermind baseball.

They have the fifth-best ERA among starters this year, with Halladay-Tallet-Richmond-Romero-Whoever. Tampa, NY, and Boston rank 10th through 12th, respectively. And while no one really knows what will happen with Cecil/Zep/Mills, or even Romer, it's not like there are no question marks over Hughes, Wang, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, Wakefield, Kazmir, Sonnanstine, or even Price.
Jim - Sunday, July 05 2009 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#202103) #

Anyone who watched the Jays series this weekend in NY would not try and compare the Blue Jays ERA to the Yankees ERA.  Did you see the HR Matsui hit against Cecil?  How about Damon off Halladay?   Any ball hit in the air to right gets out, Matsui has 10 home runs at home already.  Damon is going to SHATTER his career high in home runs. 

I respect the fact you are looking for the positive as a fan, but the Jays are going to finish 15 games out of 3rd this year and are going to lose ground next year.  The idea that 2010 is the year they are going to compete is a fantasy. 

They have gotten career half seasons from a handful of players and as I write this in the fifth inning on Sunday have a chance to leave NY at exactly .500. 

They are going to spend 3/8th of their payroll next year on Wells and Ryan.  Note Ryan came into the game today in the 4th inning.  2010 is more likely to end up behind Baltimore then it is in front of New York, Tampa or Boston. 

Jays2010 - Sunday, July 05 2009 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#202109) #
The 2008 Blue Jays team was good enough to make the playoffs - they simply did not distribute their runs evenly enough to do so. I believe the 2010 team will be better than the 2008 team. Now, the competition from the Yanks/Rays/Red Sox may very well be better than in 2008...but I certainly think there is enough on the Jays to be a legit contender (i.e. a 90 win team)...
Mike Green - Sunday, July 05 2009 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#202112) #
Watching the Seattle-Yankee game on Thursday, I was quite surprised by  how poor Melky Cabrera looked out in centerfield.  His routes to the ball were way below average, and he doesn't have the raw speed to correct for errors.  I missed today's game, but it wouldn't surprise me if Cabrera missed a ball that Gardner would have had.  Gardner is going to have the everyday job in centerfield very soon, as the Yanks try to reduce the load on their pitchers.
Jim - Sunday, July 05 2009 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#202114) #

The 2010 Blue Jays are going to pitch to a better then 122 ERA+?  That's what the 2008 accomplished. 

This team is not a contender this year.  What exactly is going to be different next year?

The home games remaining are 6 each in the division, 4 with Minnesota and Seattle and 3 with Cleveland and Los Angeles.

The road games remaining are 6 each at Baltimore, Boston, & New York, 9 at Tampa, 4 at Detroit, and 3 each with Oakland, Seattle and Texas.

That's a brutal schedule against a number of teams that are going to be looking to add to their already good rosters.  The Jays are on their way to 76-78 wins, yet somehow next year they are going to win 90 games without having any ability to spend money in the offseason? 

Where exactly does that come from?   90 wins isn't getting anyone to the wildcard in this league.  The American League Wild Card winner is getting to 94-96 wins.  There is a good chance there is a 92-94 win team that stays home in the division this year.

 

 

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