He may be hitting .067 this month with just one hit/home run in 15 at-bats, but Francisco couldn't carry Matt's jock strap. I suppose Mayberry must be getting the hook and Francisco gets to be the full-time defensive replacement for Ibanez.

What those Phillies really need is a closer, since Lidge appears to have hit his expiration date again.

the only bad thing for the Jays is that they have a little less leverage now

Yes and no. It does two things that hurt leverage - take away the perceived front-runner, and throw out a limited value as a starting point. It does do something positive that might trump those, however - take the only other available front-of-rotation starter off the market. Now, if anyone wants a horse, they have only one place to look. If they don't like the price, they have to move down to the Washburns and Doug Davii instead.

Is anyone else growing less and less enamoured with Buchholz the more they read about him?

OK - here's what happens...

JP has NOT blinked. He said what he needed to get to sell Roy. He didn't get it yet. He's not going to blink. The question is - Are the Sox or Yanks or LA or Texas going to?

I think it's STILL 50/50 that one of these teams will blink. IF I was the Sox I'd DO Buchholz, Westmoreland and Bowden for Roy - in fact IF THEY DON'T they won't get past the first round in the playoffs and I think they now know the Yanks have passed them offensively and pitching wise. NOT ONLY THAT - BUT if I was the Yanks and I was sure the Sox were going to get Roy I'd get in on it fast. To me however the Sox package IS the winner IF they blink.

IF WE DON'T TRADE ROY - I'm VERY bullish on 2010 IF we keep Rolen and resign Scutaro. There is NO question we've made a MASSIVE breakthrough in seeing how close to ready Romero, Cecil and Rzyzyzski are. With Richmond and Marcum back and healthy - this is a team JUST A BIT LUCKIER away from a break through in 2010.

IF - Roy doesn't go and we keep Rolen and Scutaro AND we get that bit of LUCK in 2010 - we might just be able to resign Roy after 2010. NO QUESTION he would rather win in Toronto than any place else. Lets give him the chance - unless someone blinks.

He's better off taking Roy into the offseason and hoping that Halladay approves a trade to Texas and get them involved if they have new ownership.

Or pony up the rest of the 2009 salary, since (in a hold-em til winter scenario) it's a sunk cost* anyway. This broadens your potential dealing base and makes the package even more valuable. Texas or Tampa would both be able to put together the type of package to get something done but the salary is problematic for them. It's not likely something gets done, but it's still the best talent-value at this point. Considering the ramifications for others (like Rolen, Scutaro, Overbay, and their bullpen arms) the talent haul should be even more interesting. Surely there has to be an Alderson hidden amongst our complimentary parts.

*it's a sunk cost only inasmuch as they will pay the money for the rest of the year anyway (barring a trade to another team).

Clev over SF for Garko

Pitt over SF Sanchez

Phil over Clev for Lee

Sea over Pitts for Wilson

Sea over Cinn for Balentien

I think JP should be trying to deal more with Sabean.

I seem to be alone, but my preferred destination is a division rival.  If you're rebuilding in the near term, then weaken a rival in the long term.  A trade of Doc for a rival's prospects certainly favours the rival for the next couple of years, but after that, the prospects (theoretically) become the better players in the deal.

I also would like to be kingmakers - maximize the haul of prospects by offering the (Sox, for example) more pieces to their championship puzzle.

They need to figure out how to pay him next year.

This is not a struggling franchise, it's a struggling owner.  The team will almost certainly be sold by next year, even if it's through a bankruptcy proceeding.  If it's not sold, it will be because Hicks' has sold Liverpool and the Stars to allieviate his debts.

Yes, I understand that the owner is the one hurting.  MLB was helping the team meet payroll though and like we saw with both the Diamondbacks and Coyotes it usually ends up being much more help then is publically told at the time.  Later in the process in prior instances the circumstances were worse then was publically declared.

That's a big contract to bring on board for 2010 when the league is helping you meet payroll.  Fans seem to brush the business end like 8 figure salaries are nothing because they have become a bit immune to them.

I think there is a good chance we haven't heard from Texas because Halladay already told Riccardi not to trade him there.  The idea that they need time to get Roy's approval on a deal at  the end is silly.  Riccardi already knows where he'll go and where he won't. 

It's been a BIZARRE deadline.  Every trade seems lopsided, but some to the sellers and some to the buyers.  The Lee trade is bad for Cleveland.  The Sanchez trade is worse for San Francisco.  Crazy stuff.

Presented without comment... PECOTA

Ok, I gotta comment, if just to provide some current-history context.

Doc was forecast for a weighted mean WARP of 5.2 for 2009. This is probably for 2 reasons - the system regresses the hell out of his 2 biggest skills (generating weak contact and pitching a lot of innings), and didn't believe his k/9 spike last year was real. Oh, his WARP this year? 5.1 to this point.

Chamberlain's forecast was also 5.2 this year. His current WARP? 1.3. 'Unearned' runs seem to have hurt him, as has pitching about 40 fewer innings (in the same number of starts) as has a significantly worse than expected performance of each rate stat. Still a tonne of potential (obviously), but PECOTA seems to have him as a Wieters-sized poster child. Masterson's WARP (1.2) is almost as good in almost 40 less IP, after being forecast at less than half (2.5).

The Providence Journal (via Olney) reports the Jays' asking price to Boston as follows:  Buchholz, Bard, Anderson and Kelly.

I think that for a variety of reasons (on- and off-the-field), the team should keep Doc and especially not trade him within the division.  But in a vacuum, that's obviously a solid return.

I'm holding out hope Alonzo is a bait-and-switch attempt for Frazier. He just seems like he's almost ready, and can probably slide back to 3B.

Not that I would complain about "settling" for Alonzo...

I find it extremely frustrating that once again as the trade deadline approaches, other teams have made good deals to solidify their future (Orioles, Indians, Pirates) while the J.P. sits around and twittles his thumbs. I guess I should reserve jusgement until tomorrow but couldn't resist...

Why has mediocrity become acceptable for Jays fans? Same crap every year.

And Alonso for Rolen? Come on, that sounds like a rumour put together by a Maple Leafs fan!

I highly doubt Abreu would have signed in Toronto for 5 million.

5:57pm: Bill Shaikin of the LA Times reports that the Dodgers and Blue Jays spent the afternoon "negotiating extensively" over Roy Halladay. Apparently talks aren't "dead" after all. The Dodgers would allow the Jays to get a "haul of prospects" but are trying to acquire Halladay without giving up Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley.

Is it too much of a stretch to acquire Andrus, Smoak and either Holland/Feliz for Doc, Scutaro and maybe Frasor?

In short? Yes. There is no way that Texas is going to deal Andrus. It just rips apart their medium and long term defense. Players like Scutaro and/or Frasor (both very useful complementary pieces for this year, and next in Frasor's case) don't get players like Andrus (6 years of control of a shortstop that is already league average offensively, and above average defensively before he even learns the finer points of positioning, etc... Oh, and he doesn't turn 21 until next month). Good thought of using other pieces to fine-tune and get pieces you want, but Andrus is integral to the team long term, and the Rangers are well aware of it.

is Feliz being converted into a reliever?

He was short term so that they could use him as their Price or Rodriguez. Has an added bonus of limiting the innings on a young pitcher that experienced a little shoulder trouble earlier in the year, I believe.

Here's why the Jays are likely do nothing - JP needs to make some sort of a run next year to either save his job or con his way into another job - so it's really not in

JPs' interest to trade for prospects who might not contribute next yr. -  JP is simply the wrong man if this team is trying to build for the future b/c his future is now.

j

Here's why the Jays are likely do nothing - JP needs to make some sort of a run next year to either save his job or con his way into another job - so it's really not in

JPs' interest to trade for prospects who might not contribute next yr. -  JP is simply the wrong man if this team is trying to build for the future b/c his future is now.

Wrong, simply because at this point trading Halladay may not even be in JP's hands.  If ownership is planning to cut costs and a new President is coming in (which has been hinted at) then JP is more or less finished and wont have the authority to stand pat.  Anything he says to the media (ie: "we'll keep him and make a run next year") is just further posturing at this point.  Halladay is still very actively being shopped and my bet is that the upper management wants JP to blow this thing up and then just let him go as the fall guy and bring someone new in to proceed with a new path.

Why trade away the future when the future has already arrived?

Yeah. I mean, an organization will tell you they don't make decisions based on one outing, but this could easily move him from the 'reluctant' to 'untouchable'ish column. This could either kill things, or move JP to Feliz, Smoak, and others (Ramirez? Font? GB-Machine Robbie Ross? Beaven? Their second tier prospects are top 3 material in most organizations).

Is it too much of a stretch to acquire Andrus, Smoak and either Holland/Feliz for Doc, Scutaro and maybe Frasor?

In short? Yes. There is no way that Texas is going to deal Andrus. It just rips apart their medium and long term defense. Players like Scutaro and/or Frasor (both very useful complementary pieces for this year, and next in Frasor's case) don't get players like Andrus (6 years of control of a shortstop that is already league average offensively, and above average defensively before he even learns the finer points of positioning, etc... Oh, and he doesn't turn 21 until next month). Good thought of using other pieces to fine-tune and get pieces you want, but Andrus is integral to the team long term, and the Rangers are well aware of it.

Ok - the logical/rational part of me knows this is true...but the irrational, emotionally attached to Doc/the idea of raiding another team cannot be satisfied with Smoak, one of their 3 top pitching prospects and a B prospect or two. I doubt Perez is the pitcher because I can't see JP trading for a centrepiece pitcher in the low minors...unless it is Smoak/Feliz AND Perez in which case I suppose I can settle with Andrus not involved...but, seriously, I am sick of all these "untouchables" when we are talking about ROY HALLADAY when Sanchez nets Alderson and Holliday nets Wallace...by this logic, Scutaro should net Aaron Hicks...I mean, he is better than Sanchez, is he not? If these guys are all rentals, why not go for the player with the hotter season over the 'track' record? I know Andrus is an 'untouchable' and rightfully so...but how can we be satisfied with 2 impact prospects and some B prospects when guys like Sanchez and Holliday are rented for blue chip prospects. I'm sorry, if Sanchez is worth one blue chipper...Halladay is worth like 6.

Andrus can be a centrepiece for the Rangers...blah blah blah...that's why we should want him...badly...if we are only taking one pitching prospect from the Rangers then we need to shore up our position players...this needs to be something that Texas regrets as early as next season, IMO.

I am sick of all these "untouchables" when we are talking about ROY HALLADAY

Heh. I feel your pain on the Halladay fandom, but in the end the best thing for the franchise to do is to trade him. It's what they should have done with Wells in '06 when we had a replacement for him. Because they didn't, they need the impact talent infusion that Halladay can provide.

Andrus is a non-starter, plain and simple (currently ML avg bat, above avg SS, insane hand-eye coordination, under 21, already integral member of the team). There are going to be certain players that are simply not available (Wieters, Price, Justin Upton). I mean, the phone goes dead as soon as the name is mentioned. Andrus isn't one of these, but he's pretty close. So, if the goal is to get nothing done, then you seriously ask for him as part of a package.

The important thing to keep in mind about the Rangers' system is its depth of awesome. BA put Smoak at #4 mid-season, and Feliz #13. In any other organization, these are the untouchables, whereas the Rangers seem to just be trying to not deal 2 (or at least have some say about which 2). They're better than any front two we were looking for from Philly. Many of the chattering class seem to think that Perez has outpaced Feliz. Since I don't want to put my top-tier eggs in a Low-A basket, I'd be ok with leaving him out. I mean, look at the headline of our asking price for Philly: Drabek and Brown. Both Feliz and Smoak are closer and better (well, Brown may have a higher ceiling, but Smoak has advancedness and better strike-zone control, making him more likely to hit his potential). The Angels don't have any top-20 types left, which is why they would have to include so many members on their ML roster (and they knew this). The Dodgers don't have any ML-ready frontline talent (Kershaw and Kemp excluded, of course). Buchholz is interesting, but who's the other frontline piece in the Smoak ilk, and what about the AL East premium? Joba and Montero are probably the closest, but after Cone and Clemens, they're not getting another Jay ace, and that's final. All this is without mentioning the back part of a deal. From BP's top 11 list: "This is a tremendously deep system filled with legitimate prospects, many of whom are not even included here, though they would easily rank in the middle of other team's lists."

We shouldn't punish Texas because they have the best system in the game.... They are in a unique position of being able to supply the Jays with more talent (both near-ready and high upside) than anyone else without crushing their system. We should be trying to take a lot of talent from that system, but not ask for so much that they balk at it. It comes down to whether or not you want to actually get a deal done. I love watching Halladay pitch, but if he's not going to be here after 2010 (and the status quo won't keep him), we have to move on. If they agree to something that's more talent than we can get at any other point, then it's time.

ok, time to post this before I really start to ramble. In short, if the rangers want to label people as untouchable and still give up more frontline talent than anyone else (by a significant margin), you have to respect that to get anything done.

I hate to break this to the Toronto faithful, and I feel a little ridiculous even writing it, but frankly, I don't believe most casual-to-moderate baseball fans (anywhere outside Toronto, including D/FW) know how good Halladay is, and I think there could be a widespread negative fan backlash to including the much-hyped Holland and Smoak, especially given the former's peformance tonight, in a deal for Doc.

And Andrus? Ohmigod, Katie bar the door if he was part of the deal, which no worries, he won't be. Defensively, Texas is excellent this year (very unusual for the Rangers), for instance on pace to make only about 90 errors (132 last year) -- and as Toronto is the best defensive team in the AL, y'all should be able to appreciate how important that is. The only significant change to the Rangers defensively in 2009 over 2008 (other than Saltalamacchia's general improvement) is the use of Andrus.

I would love to see Halladay pitching a half mile from my office building in Arlington, but if the Rangers had to give up Andrus, Holland and Smoak, if I'm Jon Daniels, I'm just laughing at that idea. How about Feliz, Taylor Teagarden Blake Beavan, Chris Davis and one or two next-tier prospects? 

I would love to see Halladay pitching a half mile from my office building in Arlington, but if the Rangers had to give up Andrus, Holland and Smoak, if I'm Jon Daniels, I'm just laughing at that idea. How about Feliz, Taylor Teagarden Blake Beavan, Chris Davis and one or two next-tier prospects? 

Spif...Mick...obviously I agree with both...it's just my wet dream of a trade that would make me feel so much better. But...if the trade were straight up Smoak and Andrus for Doc and Scoot...Texas would do it, no? I would think so, though maybe I'm way off. How about Andrus and Holland for Doc and Scoot? Andrus and Feliz for Doc and Scoot? Why not have the best of every potential rumour/scenario out there:

1. Andrus and Holland for Halladay and Scutaro

2. Alonso for Rolen

3. Downs for Brandon Wood (this is what the O's wanted for Sherril and even though I'll begrudgingly agree with Jim that the Halos have not traded Wood for a reason, this is a fantasy).

4. Frasor for...

I think we'd be set up real nice. Let Texas keep Smoak...we are getting Alonso for Rolen (much prefer him to Encarnacion...though I'd be shocked if Rolen brought back Alonso, regardless of how much money the Jays eat).

It seems that it would almost be better to have a bunch of guys like Sanchez and Holliday as opposed to ONE Halladay...which seems ridiculous to me...but nobody seems to be willing to give more than one blue chipper.

Like most everyone else here, I hope the Jays eat some money if it means receiving better prospects. If Alonso can be had and the Jays have to eat all (except the league minimum for replacement player) of Rolen's 09 salary and half of '10, so be it. Think of it like "going over slot" for a premium prospect since the Jays have refused to do it for so many years...

How about Feliz, Taylor Teagarden Blake Beavan, Chris Davis and one or two next-tier prospects?

I can't see this getting done without Davis being changed to Smoak. This is the part where it'll hurt Texas a bit, between him and Feliz. They'd still have Holland (and obviously Andrus), plus most of their minor league talent (including Perez, who is right up there with Feliz now on the prospect list) - they're in a unique situation to be able to weather giving good value for Halladay without emptying the farm or hurting the ML roster.

If you're a fan of the BP playoff chances list, they move from ~35% to ~59% likely to get in. JP can be a king maker (I wish they would run the playoff likelihood for Texas if Halladay is sent to the Red Sox or Angels). Surely 2 (of 5) pieces of prime young talent, plus some 'filler' from Texas (which are darned good prospects in their own right) is not too much to ask for accellerating the Contender status a year or two. My Happy-Land package that could actually happen would be Feliz, Smoak, Font, Ross, and Ramirez (depending on what the prognosis for his wrists were) / Teagarden. That's probably pushing it, but it's something that could be worked on.

That's as lopsided in the Rangers favour as getting 3 or 4 of their A prospects is in Toronto's. As Mike said, the Jays can extract that package next deadline and still have another year of Halladay's services. If that's Texas's offer I hope JP stands firm.

I think another club might well step up and beat a package like that next year.

Forget next year - the rumored Boston package probably beats that now. Davis isn't a front-line piece. His strikeouts are always going to kill his avg, and he's not much of a walker to compensate. Is he a bad player? No. He'll presumably rebound enough to be a decent enough 1B/DH. But those Ks were a concern before, and this year didn't help allay that at all.

f the trade were straight up Smoak and Andrus for Doc and Scoot...Texas would do it, no?

I'd think no. They're built for a lengthy window. Maybe 4-6 years. Andrus is currently a member of the team and will be for at least 6 years. There's no one currently positioned to replace him. Smoak at least is not currently part of the team, and also has at least 1 viable replacement in the system (Chris Davis, Max Ramirez, Mitch Moreland). Sure, they don't project to be as good, but that's still enough. When you're contending, there is no inclination to break up your ML roster, especially not of long-term controllable talent that's currently an important piece with no long term replacement.

As for the others, I'm kinda hoping they were working towards Frazier instead of Alonso (especially since I want Smoak in a Halladay trade, and we have Lind, and Cooper, and Dopirak to boot). The ex-SS should be able to handle the transition to 3b, but the Reds don't seem to see him there (they're using him in LF). I'm all for getting Wood as the SS if possible. Downs, Frasor, League... whichever one they liked best. Surely we have something they want (within some semblance of reason).

Rosenthal says the Jays are asking for Holland, Smoak, and two other prospects. Seems like fair enough value to me.

I just hope that Julio Borbon isn't actually in the mix. I worry that he's a 4th outfielder, or Juan Pierre. I'd rather collect high-upside arms to use as trade chits later.

I gotta say, I agree with metafour on just about everything, to various degrees. If we get a good deal (even if it's a Sherrill short of a Bedard trade), it probably gets done. If the back end is sufficiently reinforced, i can't see us letting a couple million in 'sunk'-costs getting in the way. And, the Twins were apparently told very quickly, "Thanks, but Roy doesn't like you," and yet we're still talking to Texas. I take that as a promising sign. A certainty? No, but promising.

As for JP lying... yes. He was likely saying one thing publicly to enhance his bargaining position. I like to think of it as posturing. He botched it up a couple times, but for the most part has done a pretty decent job. This team is probably 2 pieces away (plus retention of all their other pieces and having the ups balance the downs), but given all the surrounding cost-cutting rhetoric and attempt to deal Halladay, those pieces aren't coming in. If that's the case, sell off, get ML ready talent and payroll space, and use 2010 as a see what we have year (like this year's been for our pitching staff).

Man, I need more coffee this time of year... or speed... or coke. Too easy to get distracted and forget to go to sleep.

Look at our situation where we're apparently perfectly fine with keeping Halladay yet we've been in contact heavily with multiple teams and have made trade proposals to numerous teams.  We clearly want to trade Halladay.

I agree. And, quite frankly, if JP maximizes the return on all of his valuable assets (Halladay, Scutaro, Rolen, Downs and Frasor), espescially with players who will be ML ready in 2010, the team could be in the position to sign Halladay as a free agent in 2011. I think this is a perfectly reasonable possibility depending on the assets received and 2010 performance. And, really, what is better...having Halladay until 2010 until he HAS to leave because of the state of the team, or having him leave for a season and a half and COME BACK because he loves TO and they are in a position to win with a bounty of young talent.

For the record, I think I will wake up...or shortly thereafter... and Halladay will be a Ranger and Smoak/Feliz and 3 other decent pieces will be Blue Jays...but I, for one, would gladly accept a 'light' package of Feliz and Andrus for Halladay and Scutaro because, like everyone else, I think a budding star SS like Andrus is extremely valuable.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/29/967505/btb-power-rankings-through-tuesday

Here is a different set of rankings to make Jays fans feel a little better about 4th place. Taking 5th overall in baseball looks not too bad.

BTW, BTF is going to bring some experts in on Friday afternoon.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/btfs_2009_trade_deadline_extravaganza_7_31_12_6_pm_edt/

The oscillations were a bit odd at times, but this is the time of year for saying one thing and doing another... that and the Winter Meetings. Also, given that it seemed to create more buzz on the 28th, it appeared to work... Or it was just the chattering class paying more attention.

As for the leverage being lower in the offseason... who cares? For all the leverage they have right now, if they can only pry a Cliff Lee deal loose, what did that leverage do for you? I don't know why everyone thinks this is going to be Santana all over again. If the leverage is lower, but more people are willing to discuss the pieces that were unmovable during the season or more able to free up the salary to get him, why take a quantity-over-quality deal now?

Here is a different set of rankings to make Jays fans feel a little better about 4th place. Taking 5th overall in baseball looks not too bad.

The only thing about this site that made me feel better is that it's good to know the democracy of the net allows anyone to host a website.

According to these ridiculous rankings, Cleveland is a 'better' team than Detroit, which it trails by 12 games in the standings. The AAA team in Oakland is supposedly 'better' than the Cards and Cubs, and the Jays are 'better' than the Phils.

In some universe this may be 'taking 5th overall in baseball'. But not many folks live there.

Kudos to JP for publically embarassing the frachise and exploiting its star player to get his name in some papers with apparent impunity.

Not impressed with how this has gone down as all. 

Unless he lands a big haul over the next 4 hours he should be done in T.O.

How did JP publically embarass the franchise?   Seems like people are overreacting a lot on this issue.

Kudos to JP for publically embarassing the frachise and exploiting its star player to get his name in some papers with apparent impunity.

Not impressed with how this has gone down as all. 

Unless he lands a big haul over the next 4 hours he should be done in T.O.

I highly doubt JP did this to get his name into the papers. There are easier ways to do that. And really the only person who might look bad in the whole affair is JP, but only because he talked a little too much, not because of the process itself. JP said he wanted to get blown away, that didn't happen (so far) and he hasn't blinked (so far). So, there is really no reason to go after JP (again, there may have been the odd moment when he talked too much), unless you are one of the ones that always go after him, no matter what he does, I'm not the biggest JP fan, but that is more because he seems to avoid taking real risks. But that may not even be him, but also Rogers. Right now, prospects are very much overvalued and that's why no one went after 1.5 years of Roy. That's hardly JPs fault. A few years back, several teams would have sold their farm to get Roy, now you get almost nothing for 1.5 years of Cliff Lee.

How did JP publically embarass the franchise?   Seems like people are overreacting a lot on this issue.

Agreed. JP cannot do anything to please fans at this point. He is blamed for everything that is wrong with the team, the playoff format in baseball, the situation in the middle east....perhaps it is time to listen to Richard Griffen and fire JP because he is no longer "the face of the franchise." As much as I think he has done a decent job, I am not sure what else can be done short of having quite a few things go right and contend in 2010, which is still a longshot in this division. This is basically on ownership now...if they want to give JP the $110 million he was originally scheduled to have in 2010 to acquire and impact bat and resign Scoot, maybe they could contend. If they want payroll down to $60-80 million with Wells being a part of that there is not much JP can do at this point.

With a few hours left before the deadline, I think there is one thing that we can be sure of: if Halladay is moved, it will be a ton - it will not be a Santana or Cliff Lee trade...would we rather he overplay or underplay his hand at this point? I am for overplay...and his "nothing going on with Doc" diatribe means little if we know JP. Heck, he should be saying that.

I still think Rolen can be moved in the offseason and his value may be the same or higher because teams will have a better sense of the 3B market and payroll. The Reds are not contending this year anyway...I don't see why they need him now. The White Sox and Angels, among others, could easily get involved in the offseason.

Scutaro is the key domino that hinges on Doc, IMO. The Jays can move a reliever or two regardless, but if Doc does not go then I suppose JP will try his best to resign Scoot or collect 2 picks for the next GM to take advantage of...

First time poster but have really enjoyed the comments and insight posted on this board since I found it.

My thoughts: I would love to keep Roy but I am half hoping for his sake that they move him.  He doesn't deserve to have his name bandied about in the off-season (which is bound to happen) or at next year's trade deadline.  You can really tell that he does not enjoy it.  If he stays, I hope that after all this publicity people go out to see him pitch.

What people thought of Jason Donald in January is very different from the current opinion of him. Same with Lou Marson and dozens of prospects across baseball. The prevailing opinion, one that I agree with, is that the Indians sold very low on Lee and the trade was a clear win for the Phillies. Carrasco could turn into a mid-rotation starter, but I'm quite skeptical about whether Marson or Donald will ever be impact regulars. Jason Knapp is an interesting arm, but has injuries in his past and is several levels removed from the majors.

How do you know JP didn't? For all we know nobody is offering anything for Tallet or Frasor or Bautista. If all that a team is offering a C- prospect I'd rather keep all three. They're useful players and, if money is going to be as tight as expect or payroll needs to be cut, all thee can be shopped and then non-tendered in the offseason. It's not an ideal solution, but I'd rather keep them than take a Trevor Lawhorn in return.

I expect JP is shopping at least some players on the roster besides Halladay and Rolen, although I can't say definitively he is, as he has gone through several deadlines now without any move.

Perhaps JP will come with one final offer at JD. Clearly Andrus was off limits from the beginning and apparently Holland is now as well. So maybe JP makes one last attempt..."if Holland is off limits then I want Smoak, Feliz AND Perez. Take it or leave it."

I would be ecstatic with that haul, though it is another fantasy I am sure...

There hasn't been anything in regards to Frasor & Downs on MLBTR...quite interesting...

I didn't hear any buzz about Claudio Vargas before he was dealt, either. It's a bit surprising there wasn't any buzz, but given the way that the Doc (and Rolen to a far lesser degree) rumours took off and how those played out in the media, I wouldn't be surprise if JP tried to keep the rest of his deadline dealing much closer to the vest.

MLBTR has Heyman saying the same on Rolen. If Bailey, Alonso or Frazier are involved then great. Personally I find Encarnacion underwhelming.

Could this mean that Doc is next, or that JP will keep Doc but STILL only have $80 million to compete with in 2010. That is pretty much impossible, IMO.

Perhaps Wood is coming in a Scott Downs trade since the Angels & Dodgers are fighting over Bell without progress, so far? If Downs and Rolen net Wood and Alonso that would be awesome, even if Doc stays for now...

At the time of the Wells deal he was worth a tonne on the trade market and Rios was poised to replace his D and O from CF at a far lesser immediate cost .

It was the definitive move of the JP era matched in its stupidity only by his conduct over the past few weeks.

Except for the fact that it was Godfrey who was the one who wanted Wells signed, JP wanted to trade him.

I believe this to be the case as well, but I'm just wondering if we've ever received any reasonably tangible confirmation of that. I mean, the Law quote, the JP "Beltran Money" quote, some unnamed sources, etc, all tend to point in that direction. Have we received anything more than that to be able to state it as accepted fact? Don't mean to pick on you, jester00... it's more of a curiosity for me. I suppose the biggest thing will be if JP's fired. Tough to fire a guy whose biggest impediment was a roadblock put in place by ownership. Aside from that, what else did he do wrong? Thomas? Ryan? Chump change relative to Wells, and both reasonable gambles, just a year longer than the market probably would have bore. You can add Koskie in there if you like, as well. Can't remember how much they ate on that. Again, probably a year longer than the market was offering, but he was a Canuck, so it was OK, right? Right? While not the best record, he has done pretty well for himself. Is he an arrogant SOB? Sure, I can see that. As long as it's not affecting sales (or the product on the field, which in turn drives sales), who cares? If anything, the Dunn fiasco is his biggest flaw, because it took him off the shelf when he would have been an immense help at DH at any point over the past couple years... and was completely unnecessary, and with no upshot.

The Halladay Hullaboo in the weeks leading up to the deadline was embarassing to the franchise in my view and we missed a huge opportunity to cash in on a tremendous asset.

To make matters worse JP attempted to throw Doc under the bus re: the cause of the hullaboo.

The comparasion to the Wells scenario follows thusly:

We didn't get value for Wells when it was at its peak and before he got expensive and instead converted him instantly into a huge liability.   Now we've missed a chance to get top value for Doc - he'll never be worth more than he was last week and he's about to become prohibitively expensive. 

When you run an AL East team other than the Sox/Yanks you need to get all the big decisions right if you hope to contend.  JP has proven adept at smaller roster filling moves for role players etc. but has blown a number of big decisions (not dealing Wells/not dealing Doc).   I can live with the Ryan/Thomas gambles, we need to take some of those as a mid-market team in this division, but the Wells/Doc decisions are cripplers. 

Doc is my favourite Jay of all time but I fear if we keep him long-term, which is a possibility the corporate speak guys with Rogers are currently spinning, the cost will be huge and we'll be paying for past performance as TO sports franchises are famous for.

You're asking the impossible. Nobody can get all the big decisions right. The Red Sox are probably the smartest team out there, and they don't get everything right.

To compete in the AL East for an extended period, you need to get most of the big decisions right and you need the resources from ownership.

You're right Frank nobody can get the big ones right all the time. 

The reality is, unfortunately, you need to be pretty close to perfect to make the playoffs from the AL East if you're not the Yanks/Sox and getting a big decision dead wrong can hold you back for a long time when encumbered by budgetary considerations.

We had a window of opportunity the past couple years, which JP gamely took a shot at with Glaus/Ryan/Burnett/Thomas, but another window probably won't open for 2-3 more seasons unless the playoff format changes. 

I'd imagine we'll still  be able to get a pretty nice haul for Doc in the offseason, assuming his continued health, or at next year's trade deadline so the window on this big decision hasn't closed yet.

I'll resolve to enjoy Doc while we've got him and keep cheering for all our moves to work out for the best.

Fortunately we have enough young talent at the moment that we'll be in for some entertaining baseball in any event.