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Features Who can predict the post-season hardware?
Nice little discussion starter the other day, in the form of a pinch-hit by Bauxite Brian W., in his look at the A.L. Cy Young race. 

The verdict: Um, we really don't know. Maybe Greinke deserves it. Maybe King Felix out in the Pacific Northwest. C.C. in the Bronx? Maybe somebody will explode in the last two weeks and win 20, effectively blinding the voters? We dunno!

Fortunately, there are a number of other awards that will be given for us to start fighting about ... er, discussing, debating ... ya know.  Are ANY of the major awards a slam dunk right now? (Okay, one is.)

So fill out your projections ... anyone who goes 10-for-10 -- gets every prediction right -- well, what are you doing here? Get to Vegas!



Important note:  These aren't projections of who SHOULD win ... it's who WILL win. Get to it!
  • AL MVP: Derek Jeter, just nudging out Joe Mauer;
  • NL MVP: Albert Pujols -- is anyone willing to predict someone else?;
  • AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, but I honestly have no clue;
  • NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum in a repeat! (Sorry Chris Carpenter);
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Elvis Andrus (Sorry, Matt Wieters);
  • NL Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson, best of a weak crop;
  • AL Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia edges out the Rons, Washington and Gardenhire - and that's Jim Leyland way in the distance running fourth;
  • NL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre doesn't care which league he's in -- he wins!;
  • AL Comeback Player of the Year: Justin Verlander? Not a lot of strong candidates, but from 18 wins to 17 losses back to 17 or 18 wins ... nice!;
  • NL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter; the Cy Young bronze medalist wins this one.

Okay, who's up next?

 

Posted by Mick Doherty on Tuesday, September 22 2009 @ 10:10 PM EDT.
Who can predict the post-season hardware? | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
James W - Tuesday, September 22 2009 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#206360) #
  • I'll take a stab:
  • AL MVP: Joe Mauer, and it's not close.
  • NL MVP: Albert Pujols, and it's even less close.
  • AL Cy Young: Zach Greinke picks up at least 20 first-place votes.
  • NL Cy Young: Carpenter wins, because most voters are in bed when Lincecum pitches.
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bailey.
  • NL Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson.
  • AL Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia, and it should be unanimous.
  • NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, and it also should be unanimous.  The Rockies were 10 games under when he took over.  Now they're 20 games over.
  • AL Comeback Player of the Year: Justin Verlander? Sure, why not.
  • NL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter; the Cy Young gold medalist wins this one.
    • [ Reply to This ]
    AWeb - Tuesday, September 22 2009 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#206361) #
    • AL MVP: Joe Mauer;
    • NL MVP: Albert Pujols
    • AL Cy Young: Greinke
    • NL Cy Young: Wainwright - most wins, third in ERA, good in K's - not the best pitcher, but having one of those years.
    • AL Rookie of the Year: Elvis Andrus
    • NL Rookie of the Year: Happ
    • AL Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia
    • NL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre
    • AL Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Hill - if he qualifies.
    • NL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter
    [ Reply to This ]
    smcs - Wednesday, September 23 2009 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#206366) #
  • AL MVP: Derek Jeter, robbing Mauer just like Morneau robbed Jeter
  • NL MVP: Albert Pujols, he's the MVP until he isn't
  • AL Cy Young: Zach Greinke.  If it isn't him, Joe Posnanski may kill someone.
  • NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter.  The story is still too good
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bailey.
  • NL Rookie of the Year: J.A. Happ.  Pretty sure he still qualifies.
  • AL Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia 
  • NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy.
  • AL Comeback Player of the Year:  Aaron Hill.
  • NL Comeback Player of the Year:  Chris Carpenter
    • [ Reply to This ]
    Thomas - Wednesday, September 23 2009 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#206381) #

    AL MVP: Joe Mauer, and it's not as close we feared two weeks ago (but that is because the Twins made it close; it shouldn't have been close regardless)

    NL MVP: Albert Pujols. In a walk. Like it should.

    AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke overcomes the low win total to edge out Felix.

    NL Cy Young: I think this one will be close, but I'm going to go with Carpenter over Lincecum.

    AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bailey

    NL Rookie of the Year: JA Happ

    AL Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia.

    NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, and it should be unanimous. Tony LaRussa deservedly finishes second.

    AL Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Hill.

    NL Comeback Player of the Year: Joel Pineiro. (I don't think they'll give it to Carp if he's already won the Cy. If he doesn't, he's the obvious choice.

    [ Reply to This ]
    mathesond - Wednesday, September 23 2009 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#206385) #
    AL MVP: Joe Mauer, beating out Teixeira
    NL MVP: Albert Pujols, narrowly edging the rest of the league
    AL Cy Young: Greinke
    NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, if only because I traded him in my keeper league
    AL Rookie of the Year: Elvis Andrus sounds good as anyone
    NL Rookie of the Year: J.A. Happ, if only to make Ricciardi look bad for not trading for him
    AL Manager of the Year: Scoscia
    NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy (or whoever's running the Rockies)
    AL Comeback Player of the Year: Derek Jeter, because he deserves an award, dammit!
    NL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter
    [ Reply to This ]
    TamRa - Wednesday, September 23 2009 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#206388) #
    As an aside here - I'll put this here instead of the previous Cy thread assuming everyone has moved on from that one - a poster on Wilner's blog made this observation:

    (He made a point of commenting on Halladay but my interest was in the contrast between Grienke and Felix)

    The four highest scoring teams in the AL are the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox & Rays. Here’s how many times each of the six have faced those four teams:

    Zack Greinke - 4 (thusfar, zero against the Yanks or Sox)
    Felix Hernandez - 8
    Justin Verlander - 7
    CC Sabathia - 8
    Josh Beckett - 11
    Roy Halladay - 16

    Each of these pitchers has around 30 starts. That means Halladay faces, on average, the best offences of the league, during every other start. He is consistently facing the best hitters, and is usually beating them. The other guys get way more opportunities to beat up on the weak. Halladay’s career stats would be through the stratosphere if he played in another division.

    For comparison, here are their starts against the four worst offences (Seattle, KC, Chicago, Detroit):

    Greinke - 12 [3*] (plus two more in Houston & Pittsburgh)
    Hernandez - 6 [2] (plus one in San Diego)
    Verlander - 7 [3] (plus one in Houston)
    Sabathia - 8 [7]
    Beckett - 5 [5]
    Halladay - 5 [3]

    *[The numbers in square brackets are starts against Oakland & Baltimore, who could easily slip into the bottom four.]

    So Halladay also gets the fewest breaks against the softer teams. It’s a real testament to his mental fortitude.


    I bolded the relevant parts. Not, of course, that the voters will look so closely but, to me, this more than mitigates the difference in park factors.

    I wonder how strength of opposition plays into ERA+, if at all?

    [ Reply to This ]
    AWeb - Wednesday, September 23 2009 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#206397) #
    ERA+ is park and season adjusted, but not opponent adjusted. There's probably an ERA+O or something like that out there for that, but I don't know where. I don't think voters have to look that closely this year anyway - Grienke is allowing almost a run/9 innings less than Halladay. Strength of opposition just doesn't make up that difference...a run per nine innings is the difference between the Yankees and Oakland. Halladay has been great, as usual, but it's not that close this year.  Also, Grienke is saddled with a terrible defense as well, if you want to get into advanced analysis.

    [ Reply to This ]
    TamRa - Wednesday, September 23 2009 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#206407) #
    well I think the Halladay ship has sailed, I was talking about in relation to Hernandez.


    [ Reply to This ]
    Magpie - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#206409) #
    I agree that it's now down to Greinke and Hernandez, and for now Zack has a slight but real enough edge. But if Felix wins his last new starts and Zack loses his, all bets are off. Felix would be 18-5, Zack would be 15-10 and their ERAs would likely be quite close to each other. This one's still in play.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Magpie - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#206410) #
  • AL MVP: Joe Mauer (2. Teixeira 3. Jeter)
  • NL MVP: Albert Pujols (2. Pujols 3. Pujols)
  • AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke (2. Hernandez 3. Rivera)
  • NL Cy Young: Adam Wainwright (2. Carpenter 3. Lincecum)
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Elvis Andrus (2. Porcello 3. Romero)
  • NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Coghlan (2. Hanson 3. Happ)
  • AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington (2. Scioscia 3. Gardenhire)
  • NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy (2. Bochy 3. LaRussa)
  • AL Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Hill (2. Verlander 3. Cano)
  • NL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter (2. Piniero 3. Zito)
    • [ Reply to This ]
    Chuck - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#206412) #

    For what it's worth, FanGraphs has Chase Utley and Hanley Ramirez not too far behind Pujols, largely due to positional adjustments (obviously).

    Pujols: 82.9 RAR, 8.3 WAR
    Utley: 79.9, 8.0
    Ramirez: 75.1, 7.5

    While the BBWAA can't be trusted to rank Utley and Ramirez so highly, they should be ashamed if they do not include them in their top 10 (I think Ramirez will be, Utley not). I take it as a given that all of Fielder (58.7/5.9), Gonzalez (52.7/5.8) and Howard (43.1/4.3) will finish ahead of them.

    [ Reply to This ]
    Timbuck2 - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#206414) #
  • AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
  • NL MVP: Albert Pujols  (Can't wait to see him play in the Dome next year!)
  • AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia - (Someones gotta be different)
  • NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum (We Tim's gotta stick together!)
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Elvis Andrus
  • NL Rookie of the Year: J.A. Happ. 
  • AL Manager of the Year: Mikey Sciosca
  • NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy
  • AL Comeback Player of the Year:  Aaron Hill.
  • NL Comeback Player of the Year:  Chris Carpenter
    • [ Reply to This ]
    Gerry - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#206415) #
  • AL MVP: Joe Mauer
  • NL MVP: Albert Pujols
  • AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke
  • NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Elvis Andrus
  • NL Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson
  • AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington
  • NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy
  • AL Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Hill
  • NL Comeback Player of the Year: Joel Pineiro
    • [ Reply to This ]
    youngid - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#206416) #
  • AL MVP: Joe Mauer
  • NL MVP: Albert Pujols
  • AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke
  • NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
  • NL Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson
  • AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire
  • NL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre
  • AL Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Hill
  • NL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter
    • [ Reply to This ]
    youngid - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#206417) #
    of course I meant Jim Tracy, not Joe Torre.
    [ Reply to This ]
    John Northey - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#206419) #
    Howsabout the 'dumb' award.  Ones that are based on the tradition of Wins, ERA, Saves, RBI, HR, and batting average being the voters stats of choice.

    AL MVP: Teixeira (esp if he hits 300 in the end) over Bay (low avg killing Bay) with Pena getting consideration - Mauer's inability to drive in 100 killing him (needs 11 to reach it) despite the high average.

    NL MVP:     Fielder vs Howard vs Pujols (2 RBI spread) with Pujols' HR lead giving it to him.  Ramirez hitting 350 gets him some votes, but nowhere near enough.

    AL Cy Young:     Sabathia leads in W and is a Yankee.  Doubt Feldman will pass him now, Hernandez a backup choice with #2 in ERA and 2 wins back.  Greinke getting 15 wins is big as I see that as a voter dividing line (very, very hard to pull it off under that) and his 2.08 ERA is just amazing (almost .4 below everyone else).  Halladay will get a few 3rd place votes. Rivera is 3rd in Saves 2 back of Nathan and Fuentes and that'll kill his 'career Cy'.

    NL Cy Young: Wainwright with 18 wins so far (3rd in ERA), Carpenter 2 W back (#1 ERA), Lincecum at 14 is just too low although leading in K's is a plus. Bell having 40 saves is good but ERA of 2.84 kills him (relievers need ERA's sub 2 to be considered normally).  Carp is probably going to get it thanks to a past win and being close in W's.

    For managers of the year, the team had to suck last year and do well this.
    AL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi (Yankees return to glory) over Jim Leyland (Tigers back up but would've been dead in any other division plus Leyland ran last years team)
    NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy (took Colorado from basement to WC during season) over Joe Torre (2nd year in playoffs for LAD but this time did it with over 85 wins)

    I'm skipping the others for now :)

    I think Mauer will pull off the MVP though despite under 100 RBI as he is a catcher with a good defensive rep (although I bet it takes a beating just due to his bat).  Grenkie is likely thanks to his ERA being amazing but watch out if CC gets 20.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Mick Doherty - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#206434) #

    Scooter Feldman going for #18 tonight! Prime the bandwagon!

    Kidding, of course. Some voters have probably never even heard of him!

    [ Reply to This ]
    Chuck - Thursday, September 24 2009 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#206439) #

    Scooter Feldman going for #18 tonight!

    Tonight nothing. He's pitching right now and the A's are slapping him around.

    [ Reply to This ]
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