According to Ken Rosenthal on Twitter, the Jays have reached a tentative deal with the Mariners to acquire Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and a prospect. There has been speculation about who the prospect may be, if the rumours are accurate, but these do not appear to be based on anything substantial. League was a serviceable reliever with nasty sinking stuff, but Morrow gives the Jays a potential starter with middle-of-the-rotation upside. It will be interesting to see who the prospect is, because I don’t see how dealing Morrow helps the Mariners win 2010. Thanks to HippyGilmore and Mike Forbes for breaking the news.
Have a look at Morrow's splits. He has really benefitted from pitching in a great pitcher's park. His road numbers, which are more like what the Blue Jays can expect, are very discouraging. Career WHIP on the road is 1.738 (vs. 1.173 at home). His career road OPS against is .818 (vs. .561 at home). His control has been poor, especially on the road (77 walks in 103 IP). I know he is regarded highly by some, but I think the Jays may have just gotten fleeced, how badly depending on who else they are giving up. Morrow may throw hard, but he has a long way to go to become even a decent major league pitcher. Maybe the Blue Jays think they can do something to fix his problems. Unimpressed.
I like the potential of this trade - Brandon League has a million dollar arm but a ten cent brain & David Cooper was Russ Adams part deux.
I like Brandon Morrow potential better than any of the other likely starters for the Jays next year - though I do admit he is a Boom or bust guy.
I don't think it's Cooper, prospectinsider.com has tweeted that 2 sources have said it's Arencibia going to the M's.
League + JPA... isn't that a lot to give up for a guy with a history of injuries?
But it shows that AA has a game plan and he's acting on it.
Onwards and upwards to the next transaction...
But it shows that AA has a game plan and he's acting on it.
Onwards and upwards to the next transaction...
If it's JPA and not Cooper, then I apologise. MR. Cooper, all is forgiven, you are a Terrific prospect
The comments on MLBTR are running unanimously that the Jays win the deal unless it's at least Wallace going back (which ain't gonna happen) and I don't see that in marrow's stats BUT he was rushed to the majors and the injuries (while troubling) do mitigate the results a bit.
I'd hesitate to extrapolate the road numbers.
From what I'm reading, IF he stays healthy (big if) and IF he learns some control (ditto) he has ace potential, not just mid-rotation.
Why am i thinking "young AJ Burnett" when I write that?
I could tolerate it being Arencibia, though I still think that's a bit high-end for the prospect. but I'm thinking cooper or Brad Mills or some such makes a lot more sense.
One thing is clear to me though, those commenters really don't know much about League
I'd hesitate to extrapolate the road numbers.
From what I'm reading, IF he stays healthy (big if) and IF he learns some control (ditto) he has ace potential, not just mid-rotation.
Why am i thinking "young AJ Burnett" when I write that?
I could tolerate it being Arencibia, though I still think that's a bit high-end for the prospect. but I'm thinking cooper or Brad Mills or some such makes a lot more sense.
One thing is clear to me though, those commenters really don't know much about League
I'm gonna miss League's funky glasses and those cool tatoos!
I guess we'll have to wait till Rosenthal wakes up to confirm who the prospect is...
Man, is Rosenthal ever well-connected within MLB! I thought he only had Jays scoops cause of JP! I was so wrong...
I guess we'll have to wait till Rosenthal wakes up to confirm who the prospect is...
Man, is Rosenthal ever well-connected within MLB! I thought he only had Jays scoops cause of JP! I was so wrong...
To me the two Bradons are VERY SIMILAR. When young, both were thought to be potential Ace Starters. League didn't make it and has become a VERY GOOD - ONE - inning guy. I think he's a near sure thing Closer. League's stuff is more electric than Morrow's. Seattle must think that Morrow is going to have to stay in the pen because of his fairly poor control - IF they thought he still had a chance to be a starter - with his stuff - they'd need a lot more than League.
Nonetheless - Morrow is an intriguing guy and he just might reach his starter potential - in which case we might have ourselves a steal. I wonder if this is a case of someone in our organization knowing what Morrow is doing wrong and knows what to tell the kid to get him to be able to have better control. Personally, I've noticed that when he pitches he often falls off to the first base side like AJ does - not a real great way to maintain control - like AJ. IF Morrow has to stay in the pen - then League is the better bet as he's already starting to excel there. However Morrow is a bit over a year younger and we would control him til 2013 while League is under control until 2012.
As to the prospect - I say Cooper - and I say personally they can have him - I'd give them Cooper for an 8" by 10" glossy of "Seattle's Alaskan Viaduct." Seattle sites are DROOLING over Wallace. They can keep drooling - notgonnahappen!
Nonetheless - Morrow is an intriguing guy and he just might reach his starter potential - in which case we might have ourselves a steal. I wonder if this is a case of someone in our organization knowing what Morrow is doing wrong and knows what to tell the kid to get him to be able to have better control. Personally, I've noticed that when he pitches he often falls off to the first base side like AJ does - not a real great way to maintain control - like AJ. IF Morrow has to stay in the pen - then League is the better bet as he's already starting to excel there. However Morrow is a bit over a year younger and we would control him til 2013 while League is under control until 2012.
As to the prospect - I say Cooper - and I say personally they can have him - I'd give them Cooper for an 8" by 10" glossy of "Seattle's Alaskan Viaduct." Seattle sites are DROOLING over Wallace. They can keep drooling - notgonnahappen!
dunno if MLBTR is just overrun with M's fans or what but they sure think we got a very special guy here...for whatever that's worth.
Those people on MLBTR are on crack.
Many of those posters think they're getting Wallace or Sinder or even Drabek!
No wonder they go sleepless in Seattle!
Many of those posters think they're getting Wallace or Sinder or even Drabek!
No wonder they go sleepless in Seattle!
If Morrow develops into the top of the rotation pitcher that M's fans think he can, this could be AA's signature deal in 5 years. I really like the looks of the potential 2011 rotation...
Drabek
Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Marcum/Zep/Purcey/Mills/Ray/McGowan
Exciting times.
Drabek
Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Marcum/Zep/Purcey/Mills/Ray/McGowan
Exciting times.
Interesting proposed deal. The Seattle boards are wetting themselves dreaming that the prospect coming over is Snider or Wallace ( I bet it's Arencibia).
Both players throw extremely hard. Morrow has much more pitch variability and projects more as a starter than League who has only 2 pitches. Morrow was the sixth player taken in the 2006 draft. He has very poor control. Both hurlers struggle against left handed hitters. League is more of a ground ball thrower. Given the small sample size and the fact that most pitchers pitch better at home - I'm not sure how valid home/ road splits are in this situation. Morrow is a diabetic.
Basically this is a challenge trade. League is limited to being a reliever due to his relatively poor off speed pitches. Morrow if somebody ( and it's a big if ) can harness his control and develop his curve or change-up could provide more over all value as a starter than League.
Obviously somebody in the scouting department likes his upside.
Personally I've always liked League , it's a shame when he finally seems to have turned the corner a bit with his change-up/splitter combo - he's gone.
Both players throw extremely hard. Morrow has much more pitch variability and projects more as a starter than League who has only 2 pitches. Morrow was the sixth player taken in the 2006 draft. He has very poor control. Both hurlers struggle against left handed hitters. League is more of a ground ball thrower. Given the small sample size and the fact that most pitchers pitch better at home - I'm not sure how valid home/ road splits are in this situation. Morrow is a diabetic.
Basically this is a challenge trade. League is limited to being a reliever due to his relatively poor off speed pitches. Morrow if somebody ( and it's a big if ) can harness his control and develop his curve or change-up could provide more over all value as a starter than League.
Obviously somebody in the scouting department likes his upside.
Personally I've always liked League , it's a shame when he finally seems to have turned the corner a bit with his change-up/splitter combo - he's gone.
Brandon Morrow has a flight at 10am to Florida so we know Rosenthal isn't making this up. It's hard to judge the trade until we know who the prospect is. Geoff Baker say it's not Brett Wallace. My guess is either David Cooper or Brett Cecil. If Morrow could ever fix his control problem, he could be a heck of a pitcher. He tossed an absolute gem in September vs. the A's.
I never trusted Brandon League in a close game. He has all the tools to be a dominant pitcher but hasn't put it all together. I don't see him as anything more than a 7th/8th inning guy. He's coming off a solid season so the Jays are trading him after a "peak" season.
I never trusted Brandon League in a close game. He has all the tools to be a dominant pitcher but hasn't put it all together. I don't see him as anything more than a 7th/8th inning guy. He's coming off a solid season so the Jays are trading him after a "peak" season.
Wilner has confirmed that League is on his way to Seattle for a physical.
How can I confirm this? A source close to the trade told me. I love all the intrigue and mystery, but this time I’m going to come right out and tell you - Brandon League told me.
A point to consider ( just like with Wallace ), Morrow has been pushed very quickly to the majors - spending only 30 games as a minor leaguer. He's really raw in terms of being a starter.
How can I confirm this? A source close to the trade told me. I love all the intrigue and mystery, but this time I’m going to come right out and tell you - Brandon League told me.
A point to consider ( just like with Wallace ), Morrow has been pushed very quickly to the majors - spending only 30 games as a minor leaguer. He's really raw in terms of being a starter.
Drabek (who I haven't seen, obviously) and Morrow (who I have) both sound like White Sox pitchers to me. I'm not sure how much 'ace potential' excites me. I guess it's reasonable for the Jays to gather it, in light of their pitcher development track record.
I like League, especially in hitters' parks, but it makes no sense for him to be here on a non-contending team, unless the plan is to install him as the closer and flip him to the Astros for prospects next winter.
Colour me ambivalent until we find out who the extra prospect is.
I like League, especially in hitters' parks, but it makes no sense for him to be here on a non-contending team, unless the plan is to install him as the closer and flip him to the Astros for prospects next winter.
Colour me ambivalent until we find out who the extra prospect is.
For those who have MLB.tv and want something on in the background while they do something else, watch Morrow's last start of the season, it's goose-bump-inducing. 8 innings, 1 hit, 9 Ks, I'm through 4 and his fastball command is a lot better than what I'd thought it'd be (hitting the glove a decent ammount, when he's missing, more often than not it's by a couple ball-widths, and not plate-widths). The hit he gave up? ground ball up the middle by Rajah Davis, gloved on a really good play by Wilson, and Davis beat the throw by less than half a step.
Now, having said that, the announcers were talking about his previous start, against Tampa Bay a few times. Apparently he cruised through 5 innings, came out for the 6th, and threw 9 straight balls to get himself pulled. He's going to be one of those frustrating and tantalizing pitchers to watch (much like the Brandon going the other way). I think he will remind us of Burnett in that way where he'll cruise along, dominating, and then just lose his command completely for an inning. I'm more than ok with this.
At least we'll be spared the misery of seeing Brandon League starting an inning..... (Thanks, Magpie!)
Wilner has spoken to League and he confirms he's been informed and he's scheduled for a physical
http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/12/22/blue-jays-trade-brandon-league/
http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2009/12/22/blue-jays-trade-brandon-league/
Morrow is 1.5 years younger than League, and has about a year less service time. I think Cooper to the Mariners also makes a lot of sense.
AA is certainly not shy about making deals for players he believes in. You have to wonder how Tango who consults for both teams keeps his perspective during all this.
I think various trade proposals were knocked about in the Halladay/ Lee trade and this may be an out growth of all those discussions.
AA is certainly not shy about making deals for players he believes in. You have to wonder how Tango who consults for both teams keeps his perspective during all this.
I think various trade proposals were knocked about in the Halladay/ Lee trade and this may be an out growth of all those discussions.
I like this deal, although I will miss watching League. For my money, when he is on, he is incredible to watch. I hope he does well in Seattle.
I think people have covered everything there is to say about Morrow - let's hope he turns out to be 2010's Zack Greinke...(although Greinke also lit up parts of 2008).
I think people have covered everything there is to say about Morrow - let's hope he turns out to be 2010's Zack Greinke...(although Greinke also lit up parts of 2008).
Both teams get what they want in this type of trade. League with his ground ball propensities and having Jack Wilson and perhaps Beltre playing behind him will be quite good right away in this sea level pitching haven. Morrow has a chance to be a 1/2 starter and the Jays have plenty of time to see if he can get there eventually.
Brandon League had some of the best peripherals in the game last year for a reliever (I'm guessing that's why Jack Z and his people targeted him). He's going to be an elite reliever, and it's going to happen soon. That said, if Morrow turns out to be a quality starter, this deal will be well worth it (unless the prospect is somebody of value).
Mariners fans seem to be overrating Morrow a bit, as they've thrown out names like Snider and Wallace as the "prospect" on a couple of sites I've seen.
Mariners fans seem to be overrating Morrow a bit, as they've thrown out names like Snider and Wallace as the "prospect" on a couple of sites I've seen.
Or underrating League. I suppose if you just looked at League's ERA, you wouldn't notice the enormous improvement he made last year.
Arencibia would make sense, given the number of catchers AA has acquired in recent weeks. Or Cooper, given that AA has said Wallace will be playing 1B in the near future.
I don't mind the trade as a kind of upside play, but I don't expect Morrow to turn into the next Grienke or Lincecum. I guess I wonder what is more likely: Arencibia starting to draw walks, or Morrow no longer issuing them.
I don't mind the trade as a kind of upside play, but I don't expect Morrow to turn into the next Grienke or Lincecum. I guess I wonder what is more likely: Arencibia starting to draw walks, or Morrow no longer issuing them.
Seattle has completely mismanaged Morrow's career to this point. They have jerked him back and forth between the pen and the rotation while rushing him to the upper levels of the minors and the majors. He made 10 starts late in the season and they were a complete mixed bag.
It's a shame he has a much service time as he does because he was not ready for almost that entire stretch he spent in Seattle. He still has a good chance to contribute, but he is certainly no future ace.
There is no way it's Wallace, Drabek, Snider or D'Arnaud. If it was you could write off this administration and long for the last one.
It's a shame he has a much service time as he does because he was not ready for almost that entire stretch he spent in Seattle. He still has a good chance to contribute, but he is certainly no future ace.
There is no way it's Wallace, Drabek, Snider or D'Arnaud. If it was you could write off this administration and long for the last one.
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/9/7/609128/pitch-f-x-profile-morrow-s
This is the pitch f/x data from his first start in the majors in the middle of 2008 against the Yankees. He didn't have a better start than that until his last start against Oakland this year. Clearly, there's a lot of potential here...maybe Toronto can harness it?
The video: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809063426714&c_id=sea
This is the pitch f/x data from his first start in the majors in the middle of 2008 against the Yankees. He didn't have a better start than that until his last start against Oakland this year. Clearly, there's a lot of potential here...maybe Toronto can harness it?
The video: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809063426714&c_id=sea
I know it all sounds like a prospect, but Overbay makes a lot more sense in this deal then Cooper or Arencibia. They need a first baseman, the Jays want to move his salary and he's from Washington.
Arencibia absolutly doesn't make sense... he wont be the one going
David Cooper makes a ton of sense, there is no need for him now they have Wallace. I was just thinking to myself today that he is probably going to be shipped out, I just didn't think it would be this soon (if its actually him). I figured if he had a rebound season of any sorts in AA/AAA, that the Jays could probalby get something decent back. I don't know if I really like this trade, its ok..I liked Brandon Leauge, but he just never really fufilled his full potential. Definatly a risk/reward type deal and for a rebuilding Jays team if it works out it could be a really good.
Yeah, Overbay does make all kinds of sense, especially when you factor in Zdurencik's love of defense. Unfortunately, the ears to the ground (Baker and Rosenthal, so far) are all saying Prospect. Sometimes things just make too much sense, I guess.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Morrow is only under control from 2010 - 2012. That's three years, but he's been a reliever and only thrown around 65 innings per year over the last three years. Would it not take the Jays a couple of years to stretch his arm out as a starter that could throw close to 200 innings? You'd only have him as a full season starter for his last year before free agency, maybe 2011 he could toss over 150 innings. Again, correct me if I'm wrong here.
Nevermind! I was looking at his ML stats, I didn't realize he tossed 55 innings in Tacoma last year as well, for a total of 125 IP between AAA and ML.
Agreed 100%. I have no idea why the Mariners (who by all accounts are going all in for this year) would be interested in JPA or Cooper, unless they think JPA is ready to be a backup catcher.
I also have no idea why everyone here is writing off Cooper after one bad year last year. Surely first round picks should get a couple of years before we label them busts.
I also have no idea why everyone here is writing off Cooper after one bad year last year. Surely first round picks should get a couple of years before we label them busts.
This is an awful deal for the Jays anyway you look at it.
Morrow's a 25 year old non-prospect. Yes, he throws hard but he's shown less control in the majors than Purcey as that 5.8BB/9 will show. tRA, FIP & XFIP will also show that Brandon League is the better pitcher.
Morrow has nothing in the way of secondary pitches which is why he uses his fastball 70-80% of the time.
There's nothing in Morrow's minor league #'s to suggest he knows where the ball is going.
This is buying high on Morrow and selling low on League. Adding a prospect is just adding insult to injury. Jays trade the better player and give up a prospect under the hope that Morrow might develop a third pitch and might develop control.
We better pray that someone Morrow can pull off learning a third pitch and develop some control.
Morrow's a 25 year old non-prospect. Yes, he throws hard but he's shown less control in the majors than Purcey as that 5.8BB/9 will show. tRA, FIP & XFIP will also show that Brandon League is the better pitcher.
Morrow has nothing in the way of secondary pitches which is why he uses his fastball 70-80% of the time.
There's nothing in Morrow's minor league #'s to suggest he knows where the ball is going.
This is buying high on Morrow and selling low on League. Adding a prospect is just adding insult to injury. Jays trade the better player and give up a prospect under the hope that Morrow might develop a third pitch and might develop control.
We better pray that someone Morrow can pull off learning a third pitch and develop some control.
Sadly that game was against the Oakland Athletics and not a single player in that lineup had an 800 OPS. It's not a sign of things to come.
Both Morrow and League have potential to be better than they have shown but neither is a sure thing. I would not expect a major prospect to go back to Seattle, I don't think the difference is that big.
Now that I check Fangraphs the difference is a bit bigger than I thought. Morrow produced 1.7 wins in 2009, League 1.0. Bill James projects Morrow will pitch 135 innings in 2010 with a 3.93 ERA, League to pitch 77 innings with a 4.32 ERA. The difference is not as big as that as Seattle's is a pitchers park.
I would not expect the prospect to be top 5, more likely 6-15.
I don't know that you would consider Cooper a bust. But with the Jays getting Wallace and planning on playing him at 1B, and having a few possible DHs already, there's really no spot for Cooper.
And Cooper wasn't really an inspired pick to start with. Best case you're looking at Adam Laroche with a bad glove? Those kind of players aren't too hard to find.
I'm not sure you can really judge this trade until you know who the prospect is. It certainly won't be any of the Phillie prospects acquired, or Snider.
What is promising is that AA has a plan and is following through on it, instead of viewing his own players higher than everyone else (which is a natural tendency). Morrow is certainly not without question marks. But really, worst case, Morrow is just a slightly different version of League with a year more control.
And Cooper wasn't really an inspired pick to start with. Best case you're looking at Adam Laroche with a bad glove? Those kind of players aren't too hard to find.
I'm not sure you can really judge this trade until you know who the prospect is. It certainly won't be any of the Phillie prospects acquired, or Snider.
What is promising is that AA has a plan and is following through on it, instead of viewing his own players higher than everyone else (which is a natural tendency). Morrow is certainly not without question marks. But really, worst case, Morrow is just a slightly different version of League with a year more control.
Morrow has nothing in the way of secondary pitches which is why he uses his fastball 70-80% of the time.
Morrow has thrown his fastball about 70% of the time the last two years. League has thrown his fastball 83% of the time three of the last four years. So, if that's true, the same would apply for League, no?
Olney says it's Morrow for League and Overbay in his daily column:
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4763913&name=olney_buster
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4763913&name=olney_buster
My bad. I read the sentence wrong.... it's not Overbay, they're just looking to move him.
The major work of the Jays' offseason is now completed, although there will be more tinkering, with the Jays trying to get young players for their veterans, like Brandon League, who is being traded for Brandon Morrow, and Lyle Overbay.
Doc has apparently taken out a full-page ad to thank the city of Toronto and Jays fans. Does anybody have a scanned copy?
Kid is 25, and he's yet to pitch his 200th inning in the majors -- it's not like he's reached the summit of his career yet.
Both guys have electric stuff and it remains to be seen if Morrow's body can stand up to life as a starter -- or the Jays' physical for him today. But the Jays would lose control of League soon, no? He wouldn't fit at all in the Jays long term plans and you could hardly count on him eating a lot of innings. Morrow has a higher ceiling and more time on his hands to see what he can become to-morrow.
And don't worry about his numbers away from Seattle -- he's only allowed one hit in five innings at Rogers Centre. Based on those projections he should be more than fine.
Olney has got Overbay as the extra body, and it's not like this would be the first time details of a trade were muddy and conflicting. Overbay makes too much sense not to be true.
Finally, Doc has a message for everybody today.
Both guys have electric stuff and it remains to be seen if Morrow's body can stand up to life as a starter -- or the Jays' physical for him today. But the Jays would lose control of League soon, no? He wouldn't fit at all in the Jays long term plans and you could hardly count on him eating a lot of innings. Morrow has a higher ceiling and more time on his hands to see what he can become to-morrow.
And don't worry about his numbers away from Seattle -- he's only allowed one hit in five innings at Rogers Centre. Based on those projections he should be more than fine.
Olney has got Overbay as the extra body, and it's not like this would be the first time details of a trade were muddy and conflicting. Overbay makes too much sense not to be true.
Finally, Doc has a message for everybody today.
Now that I check Fangraphs the difference is a bit bigger than I thought. Morrow produced 1.7 wins in 2009, League 1.0.
You're looking at that wrong. 1.7 is Morrows projected WAR for next season. His 2009 WAR was 0.2.
You're looking at that wrong. 1.7 is Morrows projected WAR for next season. His 2009 WAR was 0.2.
It is not Overbay. See Forkball's correction.
Does Morrow still have an option year left? I know he burned 2 (2008 and 09) but I'm not sure about 2007. If he has, that would make him a bit more valuable because you can send him to AAA to work on his stuff (and stop his service clock -- he will likely be super 2 next year)
if it was Overbay then my reaction would have been - straight salary dump.
It's definitely not Cooper; his value is not nearly high enough. I spoke with someone who has a pretty good insight into what the Mariners are thinking and he says no on Arencibia... The thinking is perhaps Zach Stewart. I, personally, was worried that it was Henderson Alvarez.
That is some sneaky grammar of Olney's. "like Brandon League, who is being traded for Brandon Morrow, and Lyle Overbay".
Of course the mixup is made easier by getting confused between the two Brandons.
Of course the mixup is made easier by getting confused between the two Brandons.
Why would we trade Stewart for Morrow? I'd honestly rather have Stewart, both as a starter and as a reliever.
You know... now that Brandon Morrow is a Blue Jay...
...what could be more natural than that his friends and family give him a nickname based on the city he plays for? He'll be "T.O." Morrow.
Which means that it's about time for him to begin construction of the Red Tornado android.
I wonder if League is going to invite Anthopolous over to his place next month while he's on his honeymoon in Hawaii?
(Olney tells the world in his column today that in 12 days, 157 guests will be on hand for the Anthopoulos-Da Silva wedding, soon followed by a trip to Hawaii)
All part of Olney's praise of AA and his "executive poise" that he was able to get this trade done well in advance of his impending marriage and honeymoon. I hope AA's fiancee doesn't get jealous of Buster's love.
(Olney tells the world in his column today that in 12 days, 157 guests will be on hand for the Anthopoulos-Da Silva wedding, soon followed by a trip to Hawaii)
All part of Olney's praise of AA and his "executive poise" that he was able to get this trade done well in advance of his impending marriage and honeymoon. I hope AA's fiancee doesn't get jealous of Buster's love.
I really like this deal especially if the prospect is JPA or lower. Morrow has been rushed and mishandled -- that the Jays believe they can address this speaks volumes.
Also as far as I can tell he still has an option year which speaks well to him being stashed in the minors, to have his faults corrected and service time stopped. Big win for someone like League who not too long ago looked as if he'd never pitch in the majors again. However, I'm prepared to do an about face on the trade if the prospect is something more than JPA.
Also as far as I can tell he still has an option year which speaks well to him being stashed in the minors, to have his faults corrected and service time stopped. Big win for someone like League who not too long ago looked as if he'd never pitch in the majors again. However, I'm prepared to do an about face on the trade if the prospect is something more than JPA.
I don't understand this trade. Given the depth of pitching, and the lack of position players in the Jay's system, this trade addresses none of the positional weaknesses (particulary OF).
Unless AA thinks we have stolen a hidden gem, I don't get the need for this trade.
Dave Cameron, via MLBTR, believes it's Stewart as well. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/blue-jays-to-acquire-brandon-morrow.html
If that's the case the Jays definitely think highly of Morrow, and almost certainly look at him being in the rotation.
If that's the case the Jays definitely think highly of Morrow, and almost certainly look at him being in the rotation.
If we are trading Stewart then we got fleeced.
Stewart > Morrow alone.
Stewart > Morrow alone.
The easiest response, Blue, is that sometimes it takes several moves to get it done in the end. Assuming this isn't Stewart with League, the Jays just increased their organizational assets today, making it easier to part with other pitchers or even Morrow to get the CF/RF/SS/3B the team needs moving forward.
Even if it is Stewart, I daresay he's a little overrated as having been the best of the pre-trade prospects. In a decent system, he wouldn't be considered as much of a loss.
I find it strange how quickly people give up on higher ceilinged prospects. Yes, many or most fail, but that ship hasn't sailed for Morrow yet. The more high ceilings in the organization, the more chances we end up with another star. This is a nimble little pickup, and I'm very much heartened by it even if it were Stewart.
I'm hoping it's not Stewart as Red's fan's were saying a lot of good things about him...
League + Stewart is a lot to give up but AA and his staff know better than we do...
League + Stewart is a lot to give up but AA and his staff know better than we do...
Zach Stewart is a good prospect in any system.
The realistic fact is that Morrow has no more upside than Stewart does at this point. He still has upside, but if you honestly think this guy still has "ace upside" then you are sadly mistaken. I'd say the upside of both Morrow and Stewart are about equal (mid-rotation starters, closer-caliber relievers) with Stewart easily having the edge in:
Age
Health
Control relative to age
Secondary stuff relative to age
What is the upside in this trade? We are trading a hard-throwing sinkerballer with a plus slider and developing change for a slightly harder throwing guy with next to no secondary stuff and no control. Plus guy #2 is older, is a Type 1 Diabetic, and has had arm problems in the past.
Again, if we're trading Stewart then we got fleeced. I cant see how Morrow still has that much value.
The realistic fact is that Morrow has no more upside than Stewart does at this point. He still has upside, but if you honestly think this guy still has "ace upside" then you are sadly mistaken. I'd say the upside of both Morrow and Stewart are about equal (mid-rotation starters, closer-caliber relievers) with Stewart easily having the edge in:
Age
Health
Control relative to age
Secondary stuff relative to age
What is the upside in this trade? We are trading a hard-throwing sinkerballer with a plus slider and developing change for a slightly harder throwing guy with next to no secondary stuff and no control. Plus guy #2 is older, is a Type 1 Diabetic, and has had arm problems in the past.
Again, if we're trading Stewart then we got fleeced. I cant see how Morrow still has that much value.
Yankees trade Arodys Vizcaino, Melky Cabrera, and random relief prospect to Atlanta for Javy Vazquez and Boone Logan.
I do not like the New York Yankees.
I do not like the New York Yankees.
I still like Morrow better as a closer, but I guess I have no problem seeing what we have first. League was just never a great fit here for whatever reason, lots of flashes of brillince, but he never put it together. Good swap for us as long as we hold onto Wallace, Snider, Cecil, Rzep, Drabek, Romero.
Overbay going the other way makes me smile, JPA makes me frown a little (but I can deal), and Cooper makes me satisfied.
Bill James Projections:
- B.Morrow (25): 25gs, 135.0ip, 8.7k/9, 1.7k/bb, 1.41whip, 3.93era
- C.Buchholz (25): 27gs, 161.0ip, 8.7k/bb, 2.5k/bb, 1.32whip, 3.91era
and Buchholz would have cost us Halladay.
Overbay going the other way makes me smile, JPA makes me frown a little (but I can deal), and Cooper makes me satisfied.
None of this is at all realistic. Why on earth would the M's give up Morrow plus takes Overbay, who can't be given away at his current salary?. As for Arencibia and Cooper, assuming that Morrow has any major league value both of these are meaningless throw-ins. I would be thrilled if both of them were included rather than Stewart, who at least is supposed to have some upside.
The M's GM is not stupid. He's likely not very interested in a catcher who managed a .284 OBP as a 23 year old, and a .728 OPS in a league where that was 30 points below league average.
Nor is he going to be excited about a small minor league first-baseman with a .729 OPS in AA as a 22 year old. Both of these guys more likely have a Rule 5 in front of them than a major league career.
None of this is at all realistic. Why on earth would the M's give up Morrow plus takes Overbay, who can't be given away at his current salary?. As for Arencibia and Cooper, assuming that Morrow has any major league value both of these are meaningless throw-ins. I would be thrilled if both of them were included rather than Stewart, who at least is supposed to have some upside.
The M's GM is not stupid. He's likely not very interested in a catcher who managed a .284 OBP as a 23 year old, and a .728 OPS in a league where that was 30 points below league average.
Nor is he going to be excited about a small minor league first-baseman with a .729 OPS in AA as a 22 year old. Both of these guys more likely have a Rule 5 in front of them than a major league career.
Not sure how to check this, but is this the first Brandon-for-Brandon trade in MLB history? This could be a Hall of Names milestone the likes of which we haven't seen since Bobby Bonds was traded for Bobby Murcer (urk) 35 years ago!
Yeah, but a 1.41 WHIP and 1.7 K/BB can mean anything from a 3.80 ERA to something in the low 5.00s, and the 5+ BB/9 that James predicts means a lot of 5.3 inning, 100 pitch outings. He'll be feast or famine as a starter, but I would expect more bad outings than good.
Doc has apparently taken out a full-page ad to thank the city of Toronto and Jays fans. Does anybody have a scanned copy?
I can't believe Doc made me buy the Sun. Theres a scanned pdf in: www.battersbox.ca/gwyn
I can't believe Doc made me buy the Sun. Theres a scanned pdf in: www.battersbox.ca/gwyn
from the USSMariner:
"Just heard from a source close to Brandon Morrow that Lyle Overbay is in the deal. He doesn’t fit the “prospect” tag that Rosenthal gave the second player coming back to Seattle, but it makes some sense. Overbay is a .360-.370 on-base guy, LH hitter who might hit 20-25 HRs playing at Safeco and he’s only signed through 2010, leaving the M’s open to explore deals for Gonzalez or Fielder (or a free agent 1B) next winter."
I assume we'd throw in some money but if it's not too much, I'd be happy
"Just heard from a source close to Brandon Morrow that Lyle Overbay is in the deal. He doesn’t fit the “prospect” tag that Rosenthal gave the second player coming back to Seattle, but it makes some sense. Overbay is a .360-.370 on-base guy, LH hitter who might hit 20-25 HRs playing at Safeco and he’s only signed through 2010, leaving the M’s open to explore deals for Gonzalez or Fielder (or a free agent 1B) next winter."
I assume we'd throw in some money but if it's not too much, I'd be happy
Didn't some incredibly intelligent and handsome bauxite speculate last week that the Jays could acquire Morrow for Overbay?
The quote from USS Mariner regarding Overbay being in the deal is from someone in the comment section, I wouldn't put much stock into it.
If it is Overbay and the Jays don't throw in any money, the M's got fleeced. The degree of fleecing depends on the money going back; at his full salary, things become more or less even.
If Overbay is gone, the team will almost definitely see one of Lind/Wallace at 1B. Now if only something could be done to not see Bautista play RF.
If Overbay is gone, the team will almost definitely see one of Lind/Wallace at 1B. Now if only something could be done to not see Bautista play RF.
A poster (not affiliated with the site) named "jwgrandsalami" saying "I heard from someone who heard from someone" does really qualify as a reputable person to be saying Overbay is in the deal... Until Dave Cameron at USSMariner echoes that, assume it's not true.
I could still see a situation where the Jays go with a Delgado/Dopirak platoon at first until at least the trading deadline to season Wallace a bit more in the minors (especially if he's learning a new position).
Marc, what's your opinion if Stewart is included? How would you compare those two pitchers, both in terms of their talent and their likelihood of sticking as a starting pitcher?
Extra! Extra! Minor leaguer rumored to be Brian Jeroloman
But if Brandon Morrow really says that Overbay is the other guy headed back, who are we to argue?
But if Brandon Morrow really says that Overbay is the other guy headed back, who are we to argue?
Bastian tweeted that he doesn't think it's Stewart but he hasn't gotten an identity yet.
the inferance "it's a pitcher" by Rosenthal could be anyone from Cecil down to Purcey - it doesn't have to be Stewart (albeit, neither of those guys are techincally prospects anymore)
Mills is a guy who might fit.
Unless we are going lower in the minors for someone like Luis Perez.
I know the suspense is killing me though.
It was mentioned by me and others last night that the M's fans seem to theink marrow is a stud - it makes me think of the difference Jays fans had with others about Mcgowan before his latest injury.
Fans of other teams just didn't get enough looks at his stuff to be impressed because of the injuries and Jays fans kept crossing their fingers that he'd stay healthy.
Looks to me like Marrow's ceiling is Burnett and his floor is McGowan.
the inferance "it's a pitcher" by Rosenthal could be anyone from Cecil down to Purcey - it doesn't have to be Stewart (albeit, neither of those guys are techincally prospects anymore)
Mills is a guy who might fit.
Unless we are going lower in the minors for someone like Luis Perez.
I know the suspense is killing me though.
It was mentioned by me and others last night that the M's fans seem to theink marrow is a stud - it makes me think of the difference Jays fans had with others about Mcgowan before his latest injury.
Fans of other teams just didn't get enough looks at his stuff to be impressed because of the injuries and Jays fans kept crossing their fingers that he'd stay healthy.
Looks to me like Marrow's ceiling is Burnett and his floor is McGowan.
Looking back over the rumours of the past couple of months, it seems that Seattle has been trying to trade Morrow for a while now. Milwaukee was the most-oft mentioned destination. Does that diminish our enthusiasm?
Pretty sure we'd have to send money. Good luck squeezing 20-25 HR out of Lyle in a pitcher's park. The .360 - .370 OBP is bang on, Overbay could even do a little better than that. He will hit a lot of doubles in Safeco though and he'll be playing at home. That is all contingent on this being the real deal. The other player has changed quite a few times now, so I'll wait for the cone of silence to be lifted. ;)
Maybe Milaukee's doctors are in Dunedin for the physical?
I fully expect a young pitcher to be leaving for a left side of the infield prospect or CF prospect to address a long term need. Maybe that young pitcher is Morrow himself.
AA said in his chat that numerous teams are calling him about their young pitchers.
I don't see why Milwaukee would do a Morrow/Gamel switch now, rather than doing it straight up with Seattle. Makes no sense from their end.
Seattle needs a First-Baseman, yes or no, and Bullpen Help, yes or no, amongst other things?
The Trade: Lyle Overbay with $2.0 Million - $5.0 Milllion, Brandon League and a useful piece or two - for - Brandon Morrow and a useful piece or two.
Fair value is always a good trade.
True enough AJ, though I'm not sure AA would be interested in Gamel. I'd think he'd want a better defender at third, or a CF rather than a corner outfielder.
Aside from his choice of the Toronto Sun to publish it, Roy Halladay's full-page advertisement to the fans of Toronto is an incredibly classy gesture on his part. And I don't think it was written by a PR agency on his behalf. From reading it, I'm certainly convinced that he wrote it himself, with sincerity and true feeling. This guy has to be the classiest player to have worn a Jays jersey.
If the Mariners are receiving Overbay and cash (egads, AA is giving more money away) they can fill their 1B hole on the cheap and have enough money perhaps to throw at Bedard, whom I should think they really want to see stick and succeed.
Plus I think Lyle and Milton will get along famously.
Plus I think Lyle and Milton will get along famously.
I'm not sure what to make of Morrow. You don't get drafted as the sixth player overall unless you have top of the rotation stuff. After only 5 minor league starts he's in the majors as a reliever. Generally most teams take their time, show patience and develop their assets over time. Why the rush to the show? Need? Another silly Bavasi boner? He projects better as a reliever? Hard to know.
Morrow because of his diabetic condition apparently felt he could maintain his sugars better out of the pen ( I'm not sure this is true by the way - if Bobby Clarke can play an entire hockey game and maintain his sugars, why can't a starting pitcher ? ) . At any rate this is a scouts trade, the Jays aren't picking this guy up because of his numbers, they see something with his stuff that projects well. Reading the Mariner boards, much like League ( who surely is the only MLB player to spend time on the D.L. with " surfers shoulder" ) , Morrow seems like a bit of a space cadet.
Morrow because of his diabetic condition apparently felt he could maintain his sugars better out of the pen ( I'm not sure this is true by the way - if Bobby Clarke can play an entire hockey game and maintain his sugars, why can't a starting pitcher ? ) . At any rate this is a scouts trade, the Jays aren't picking this guy up because of his numbers, they see something with his stuff that projects well. Reading the Mariner boards, much like League ( who surely is the only MLB player to spend time on the D.L. with " surfers shoulder" ) , Morrow seems like a bit of a space cadet.
I'm certainly convinced that he wrote it himself
Well, that's what the PR guy/gal who wrote it was aiming for, I'm sure. Seriously, I'm sure Halladay contributed the content, though probably verbally, and approved the final before it went to press, but I would bet my Box salary that the did not write this, get it into layout and approve it without some significant professional media help ...
This is a pretty good story on Morrow from the Mariners perspective.
You don't get drafted as the sixth player overall unless you have top of the rotation stuff
Unless you're the Pirates, of course, in which case you take a projected Closer at #4, with Weiters still on the board. I'm not sure Bavasi could even be considered this bad... I don't think.
Here's a retrospective of the 2006 draft. Morrow actually went fifth- many of the comments are still valid today.
The biggest question surrounding the live arm is his ability to control the fastball, a weakness that seems to come and go with each outing. With good control Morrow might be the best arm in this draft, a player that held postseason teams UCLA, UC Irvine and Stanford to just five runs in 22.2 innings, striking out 27.
The biggest question surrounding the live arm is his ability to control the fastball, a weakness that seems to come and go with each outing. With good control Morrow might be the best arm in this draft, a player that held postseason teams UCLA, UC Irvine and Stanford to just five runs in 22.2 innings, striking out 27.
Bastian just tweeted this: (I'm guessing no one saw this one coming)
"Hearing that Blue Jays Minor League OF Johermyn Chavez is the prospect being sent to the Mariners in the Brandon Morrow trade"
Mick, I don't know whether Doc wrote it in longhand or whether instead he just gave it verbally to someone, but that doesn't really matter, does it? Of course he didn't do the page layout or telephone the Toronto Sun advertising department himself, so naturally he had some help on it. But as for the actual message, it is short and eloquent, and it doesn't read like something that was drafted by a PR flack. I'm betting he wrote it himself.
Don't mind Mick, he'd probably tell me Santa isn't going to squeeze his way through my gas fireplace a few nights from now either. Some people have no imagination.
So long Chavez, we hardly knew ya. Hadn't even learned how to pronounce Johermyn yet.
So long Chavez, we hardly knew ya. Hadn't even learned how to pronounce Johermyn yet.
I just want to reiterate how much I love Roy and double A (still early, but mainly for how he carries himself and his 'no fear' attitude)
I was willing to write-off the guessing game that the media took part in with the Roy trade due to the large scale of the trade, but when it's occurring on this type of trade as well I guess we really have hit a low with everyone trying to get the info out as fast as possible without any verification.
That said, is this prospect any good where did he rank in BB's beloved rankings?
That said, is this prospect any good where did he rank in BB's beloved rankings?
We ranked Chavez 12th.
Griffin's take is up and is kinda funny as he says that now the Halladay trade makes sense as.
In any event, I love this trade.
Griffin's take is up and is kinda funny as he says that now the Halladay trade makes sense as.
In any event, I love this trade.
That said, is this prospect any good where did he rank in BB's beloved rankings?
Hardball Times had Chavez #1, but he was out of BA's Top 10 and BB's top 10. http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20091113010940311
I'd think that Chavez is probably a C+ prospect; if you're generous maybe a B-. But I don't think he's a prospect that you worry about giving up.
Overall, if it's League and Chavez for Morrow I like the move a lot. As relievers they're probably similar pitchers but you get the upside of Morrow possibly starting and another year of control for including Chavez (who, like Philly, probably wanted to restock their farm system a little bit).
Hardball Times had Chavez #1, but he was out of BA's Top 10 and BB's top 10. http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20091113010940311
I'd think that Chavez is probably a C+ prospect; if you're generous maybe a B-. But I don't think he's a prospect that you worry about giving up.
Overall, if it's League and Chavez for Morrow I like the move a lot. As relievers they're probably similar pitchers but you get the upside of Morrow possibly starting and another year of control for including Chavez (who, like Philly, probably wanted to restock their farm system a little bit).
Seems like a good deal for both teams. Seattle gets immediate help, Toronto rebuilding gets a guy with potential upside. The notion that with 2 smart guys like AA and big Z that they are going to "hose" each other is just plain silly.
Does Chavez need to be added to the 40 man after the 2010 season?
With Chavez gone we still have "power outfielders" led by: Sierra - his near twin brother - but with a better arm, Thames - he of great talent and many injured parts and lastly Loewen - he of the great potential if he can get it back.
With Chavez gone we still have "power outfielders" led by: Sierra
Sierra is not a power outfeilder. At least not yet and he has a long ways to go. Chavez was destined to be a LF if he makes it at all, and Snider is going to block that position for a hopefully a long time.
Yeah, corner OF isn't a pressing need for the Jays so Chavez isn't creating a big hole by leaving. Plus, with the extra picks this year the Jays can restock in the OF.
I get the sense that the Mariners soured a little on Morrow. But I definitely think this is a worthwhile move, and Dave Cameron didn't like the move from the M's point of view so that tells you something too.
I get the sense that the Mariners soured a little on Morrow. But I definitely think this is a worthwhile move, and Dave Cameron didn't like the move from the M's point of view so that tells you something too.
I don't like the trade. Chavez as a 20 year old hit 21 HR's last year. I like his chances at being a significant major league player. Morrow is injury prone, has a long history of poor control, and his home/road splits indicate that his major league numbers are inflated by pitching in a pitcher's park. League is already a pretty good major league pitcher with the potential to get even better. I continue to be unimpressed by the new regime's player evaluation ability, although I do think that they did pretty well in the Halladay deal. Hopefully Morrow can somehow find a way to drastically improve his control and also stay healthy. He certainly does have considerable upside, I just think it is a longshot that he will get there.
Chavez had the MWL's top arm last year, so he'd project to RF I think. He has average range out there.
I continue to be unimpressed by the new regime's player evaluation
ability, although I do think that they did pretty well in the Halladay
deal.
What other player evaluation have they showed so far? They signed a stop gap catcher and SS and traded Halladay.
What other player evaluation have they showed so far? They signed a stop gap catcher and SS and traded Halladay.
1. Does Chavez need to be added to the 40 man after the 2010 season?
2. With Chavez gone we still have "power outfielders" led by: Sierra - his near twin brother - but with a better arm, Thames - he of great talent and many injured parts and lastly Loewen - he of the great potential if he can get it back.
1. I believe so. He started at 17 in 2006. As an 18 or under it's five years in the org.
2. In other words, we don't have any outfielders worth mention.
Nonetheless, even though Chavez put up an .812 OPS as a 20 years old corner outfielder in Lansing, I like this a lot more than Stewart, though less than Arencibia/Cooper. I think AA did a good job.
2. With Chavez gone we still have "power outfielders" led by: Sierra - his near twin brother - but with a better arm, Thames - he of great talent and many injured parts and lastly Loewen - he of the great potential if he can get it back.
1. I believe so. He started at 17 in 2006. As an 18 or under it's five years in the org.
2. In other words, we don't have any outfielders worth mention.
Nonetheless, even though Chavez put up an .812 OPS as a 20 years old corner outfielder in Lansing, I like this a lot more than Stewart, though less than Arencibia/Cooper. I think AA did a good job.
I'm shuddering at the thought of Morrow facing the patient, causing the game to move at the pace of a glacier Yankee and Red Sox lineups. That could be a bit of a walkathon. :(
It's Depressing - Even though Chavez is a c prospect at best (remember he was repeating A ball) , the Jays system is so weak, especially in position players
that even losing Chavez hurts - But, overall I like this trade & think that AA is off to a very good start.
As far as AA trades so far I have it as
Halladay - Pretty Good (especially under the circumstances of having to make some kind of trade)
Taylor-Wallace - Thumbs down from me
League/Chavez - Morrow - Pretty Good
What other player evaluation have they shown so far?
Well, the first thing they did that really looked terrible to me was the John MacDonald contract. It scares me to think that our team is being run by a guy who thinks JM is worth that kind of deal. I thought they made a mistake in letting Joe Inglett go. I thought they made a mistake in letting Brian Wolfe go. I was surprised they outrighted Kyle Phillips. Alex Gonzalez is OK, but is a big drop off from Scutaro. I don't think Joey Gathright is very good. I'm not impressed with R. Castro. J. Buck isn't bad, isn't great. Just a whole bunch of stuff that makes me less than impressed with what they are doing.
When you get a change in the GM position, you tend to have a close look at the first moves the new guy makes to get an idea of what you think of his ability. So far I'm not impressed.
So far I'm not impressed.
So far I'm very impressed.
I have liked every trade so far.
I have disliked nearly every free agent signing so far.
It seems (thus far) obvious where AA's strengths and weaknesses are.
Colour me impressed. AA has said he's building for a few years down the road & every move he's made is indicative of this philosophy. The minor moves you've mentioned are nothing but organization filler & depth signings all signed to short term deals. Outrighting Wolfe & Phillips is a matter of replacing them with interchangeable parts. Let them catch on with another organization. AA stated his intentions, mapped out a plan, & he's following through. Whether the trades work out is another story. AA's vision is instilling hope in this long suffering, playoffless fan.
Well, the first thing they did that really looked terrible to me was the John MacDonald contract. It scares me to think that our team is being run by a guy who thinks JM is worth that kind of deal. I thought they made a mistake in letting Joe Inglett go. I thought they made a mistake in letting Brian Wolfe go. I was surprised they outrighted Kyle Phillips. Alex Gonzalez is OK, but is a big drop off from Scutaro. I don't think Joey Gathright is very good. I'm not impressed with R. Castro. J. Buck isn't bad, isn't great. Just a whole bunch of stuff that makes me less than impressed with what they are doing.
You do realize every single player you mentioned is insignificant to the future of this organization. They are stop gap type players that are a dime a dozen. They can be replaced and will be replaced in due time, hopefully with more meaningful pieces when the time is right.
You do realize every player you mentioned...
You are missing my point. As I stated in the 2nd paragraph of my post, when a new GM comes in, you want to see how good he is. You look at the moves he makes to get an idea of his ability, his skill. That is what I am trying to do, to assess how good I think AA is. All I can go on are the moves he has made.
Exactly. I'm impressed with the FA signings simply for the fact that they've been one year deals. There's no one in the system that can play in the majors at those positions and if you do acquire someone for the position you can bump the guys you signed. The MacDonald deal was odd (2 years), but that's small potatoes in the big picture.
To expect the team to sign a mid-tier free agent or better (Figgins, Cameron, etc.) is short-sighted and silly. Fortunately the organization has embraced the total tear down and rebuild instead of striving for mediocrity and counterproductive long term deals. That's how you end up with Corey Koskie. AA has embraced the plan and is aggressively pursing it.
I was skeptical of AA when he was hired but I fully approve at this point. Time will tell if the evaluations are correct, but the process is more than sound to me.
To expect the team to sign a mid-tier free agent or better (Figgins, Cameron, etc.) is short-sighted and silly. Fortunately the organization has embraced the total tear down and rebuild instead of striving for mediocrity and counterproductive long term deals. That's how you end up with Corey Koskie. AA has embraced the plan and is aggressively pursing it.
I was skeptical of AA when he was hired but I fully approve at this point. Time will tell if the evaluations are correct, but the process is more than sound to me.
AA has impressed me.
Within a month or two of taking the job, he's managed to get us 4 young talents with legit potential to be building blocks going forward.
2 high-upside starters to put on top of our alread deep pitching prospect pool.
1 slugging 1B to join Snider and Lind as the core of our lineup for the foreseeable future.
1 quality prospect at a premium position in C T.D'Arnaud.
All this while being forced into trading Roy - and impending FA Roy being the only significant asset he's given up.
If he moves some of our pitching depth for a quality SS prospect, I'll be even more impressed.
Well said J Ges and Denoit. I don't know what the use is in getting upset about signing players who won't be here when 2012 comes. The plan is geared towards the future, and none of those signings impede that. Yes, the offense has the potential to be putrid this year and possibly next, but as somebody said above I'm starting to feel hope for the future of this team.
The revitalized scouting department only adds to this hope and I'm happy with the Halladay and Taylor trades. This one I'm kind of in the middle on. It is a huuuge gamble. That being said high upside gambles being taken by the hometown GM are something I had become accustomed to not seeing, so perhaps I'm dealing with the reverberations of the initial shock of it all. I call this trade a "change of scenery" trade, well except for Chavez, who I guess had to be thrown in to make up for the fact that League is basically a 1 inning pitcher, while Morrow, even if he ends up in the pen can throw multiple innings.
Overall so far AA has done a very good job in very trying circumstances. :)
The revitalized scouting department only adds to this hope and I'm happy with the Halladay and Taylor trades. This one I'm kind of in the middle on. It is a huuuge gamble. That being said high upside gambles being taken by the hometown GM are something I had become accustomed to not seeing, so perhaps I'm dealing with the reverberations of the initial shock of it all. I call this trade a "change of scenery" trade, well except for Chavez, who I guess had to be thrown in to make up for the fact that League is basically a 1 inning pitcher, while Morrow, even if he ends up in the pen can throw multiple innings.
Overall so far AA has done a very good job in very trying circumstances. :)
I like our pitching depth quite a bit but I think it's foolish to think even most of them will work out, i'd rather keep all our young pitchers in tact and draft an up the middle player with our 11th over all pick(Although,i'm a BPA guy).
Yeah really, all the FA signings have been stopgap, the only gaff was the Mcdonald contract who probably could have been had for one year at one million or so but it's not a big enough gaff to get upset about.
I'm very impressed with AA so far.
I'm very impressed with AA so far.
I'm also quite impressed with AA so far. He's only had one head-scratcher (McDonald for 2 years, but still there are worse things than having McDonald around for 2 years during a rebuild.). All of the other stop-gaps make sense with Buck, Castro, and especially Gonzalez II with our 3 50+% grounder-inducing lefties. Then there are his talent moves - 2 A and 1 B prospects for Halladay (as opposed to getting Santana'd), and combining a (good but frustrating) setup man and a C+ prospect to net a high upside (and frustrating) starter. This has been a running start in the race to add talent to the organization, and he's holding true to his word of quality over quantity.
A couple thoughts on Chavez. He was a flawed prospect who could be Greg Halman (2008 version) or Greg Halman (2009 version). It's a good risk for JZ to take, but it's not anything to get torn up about, especially considering the haul. He's a powerful prospect that repeated at Lansing, showing power and a propensity to strike out. Basically, your standard toolsy lottery ticket. I have to say, though, it's going to be fun to follow his box scores while he's in High Desert this year. It could get Kingman-crazy.
Action, I like the risks he is taking. In my mind, the only way to compete with the big spenders is to take these kinds of calculated gambles on players with high upside. Yes some will fail, but in this division having elite talent is a requirement for playoff contention.
rfan8, the big gambles are particularly required with the Yankee$ ability to give up a 4th/5th OF and a couple of prospects for a very good SP, who may regress, but I still think it's an overwhelming win for them, merely because they can absorb other teams large contracts without blinking.
If he moves some of our pitching depth for a quality SS prospect, I'll be even more impressed.
I don't know. I would rather hang on to our pitching. Not all of them will work out and seeing what NYY and BOS are doing, we need a solid rotation 1-5 to get into the playoffs and a powerful 1-2 punch to go all the way. The only way to get this without deeeeep pockets is to stockpile pitching prospects and play the numbers game.
With big bats at other positions, you can the always get a defense first SS on the open market for moderate money. And I think that is exactly what he is doing with Lind/Snider/Wallace and all these pitching prospects.
I don't know. I would rather hang on to our pitching. Not all of them will work out and seeing what NYY and BOS are doing, we need a solid rotation 1-5 to get into the playoffs and a powerful 1-2 punch to go all the way. The only way to get this without deeeeep pockets is to stockpile pitching prospects and play the numbers game.
With big bats at other positions, you can the always get a defense first SS on the open market for moderate money. And I think that is exactly what he is doing with Lind/Snider/Wallace and all these pitching prospects.
As for Doc, right back at you, big guy.
The Morrow/League-Chavez trade is interesting. Did somebody win the trade? How the Ford Frick should I know? What I do know is that I have always liked League much better than his numbers, and his numbers are not bad at all. I believe that he can be the best closer in the league over the next 3 years, if given the chance. His pitching pattern changed last year and resulted in more strikeouts, fewer walks and fewer groundballs (although still plenty). He moves to an environment where this change is unreservedly positive (great OF defence and tough HR park). League's career HR/FB is 18.2%, or roughly 1.5 times par, and it wouldn't shock me at all if this is the year that it moves to par and stays there. Chavez is not just a toolsy outfielder. His performance last year at age 20 in the Midwest League was pretty good; he basically hit what Travis Snider hit there at age 19 less 30 points of BABIP, and he's a decent defensive right-fielder. There is certainly a chance that he will be the most valuable of all the three players involved in the trade by 2012. Morrow, of course, has tremendous upside. If he can get some semblance of control, he can be a very good starter. I have absolutely no idea what the chances are that he will.
I do understand what is in this for the Mariners. It is, to my mind, much more likely that League can be a dominant ace reliever than Morrow can be right now. League has the control. I also understand what is in this for the Jays. Morrow probably has significantly more expected value for 2012 than League because of his lesser service time. Morrow's window however is basically 3-4 years. The deal makes little sense unless the club is intending to make an effort to compete during the latter part of the Wells' contract. It is possible to do that, but significant development of the market will be required, and a payroll north of $100 million will be required.
The Morrow/League-Chavez trade is interesting. Did somebody win the trade? How the Ford Frick should I know? What I do know is that I have always liked League much better than his numbers, and his numbers are not bad at all. I believe that he can be the best closer in the league over the next 3 years, if given the chance. His pitching pattern changed last year and resulted in more strikeouts, fewer walks and fewer groundballs (although still plenty). He moves to an environment where this change is unreservedly positive (great OF defence and tough HR park). League's career HR/FB is 18.2%, or roughly 1.5 times par, and it wouldn't shock me at all if this is the year that it moves to par and stays there. Chavez is not just a toolsy outfielder. His performance last year at age 20 in the Midwest League was pretty good; he basically hit what Travis Snider hit there at age 19 less 30 points of BABIP, and he's a decent defensive right-fielder. There is certainly a chance that he will be the most valuable of all the three players involved in the trade by 2012. Morrow, of course, has tremendous upside. If he can get some semblance of control, he can be a very good starter. I have absolutely no idea what the chances are that he will.
I do understand what is in this for the Mariners. It is, to my mind, much more likely that League can be a dominant ace reliever than Morrow can be right now. League has the control. I also understand what is in this for the Jays. Morrow probably has significantly more expected value for 2012 than League because of his lesser service time. Morrow's window however is basically 3-4 years. The deal makes little sense unless the club is intending to make an effort to compete during the latter part of the Wells' contract. It is possible to do that, but significant development of the market will be required, and a payroll north of $100 million will be required.
Why are people talking about Morrow's control like its an incurable disease? League has improved dramatically in that area, last year he was over 4 bb/9 and he has 6 years in pro ball. Morrow has only been in pro ball for 3 seasons. Morrows walk rate in 2008 was pretty similar to League's in 2008.
Seems that Jeroloman had his name thrown into the rumor mill by mistake of it sounding close enough to Johermyn.
See Johermyn hit a pitch down the middle for a double.
If nothing better comes of this than that Mariners fans will stop believing their GM walks on water, this trade will be a success.
See Johermyn hit a pitch down the middle for a double.
If nothing better comes of this than that Mariners fans will stop believing their GM walks on water, this trade will be a success.
silly link tool -- See Johermyn hit a pitch down the middle for a double.
I don't understand why teams like the Nationals and Pirates (and Blue Jays) don't take chances on guys like Yohermyn Chavez in the Rule V...let him hang around your non-competitive team for the year, be completely overmatched in his 100 or so PA, and you've acquired your team an asset that people here seem to think is significant.
Chavez is not just a toolsy outfielder. His performance last year at age 20 in the Midwest League was pretty good; he basically hit what Travis Snider hit there at age 19 less 30 points of BABIP, and he's a decent defensive right-fielder. There is certainly a chance that he will be the most valuable of all the three players involved in the trade by 2012
Good post. 20 yr olds with 21 homeruns aren't plentiful. Only one guy in the league, a 23 yr old, hit as many homeruns last year as Chavez. The fact that he was repeating that level at age 20 is not nearly as important as the power breakout at that age. I'd agree there's a good chance he'll be the most valuable of the three, if not by 2012, by 2014. This guy has more upside than any of the non-Stewart players mentioned (i.e. Cooper or Arencibia). This is a shotgun trade - one where you'd have a hard time choosing which side to take.
Good post. 20 yr olds with 21 homeruns aren't plentiful. Only one guy in the league, a 23 yr old, hit as many homeruns last year as Chavez. The fact that he was repeating that level at age 20 is not nearly as important as the power breakout at that age. I'd agree there's a good chance he'll be the most valuable of the three, if not by 2012, by 2014. This guy has more upside than any of the non-Stewart players mentioned (i.e. Cooper or Arencibia). This is a shotgun trade - one where you'd have a hard time choosing which side to take.
Most young hard throwers have control issues, League as well as Morrow. Last year was the only time League put in a season of more than 50 IP, and before that time he didn't really establish himself as ML-ready. He showed plenty of promise, (we hoped strongly) but not a bit of the everyday poise you'd expect of him. At a few moments in his career, things looked hopeless.
Contrast with Morrow. His time is hardly up -- he's been dicked around, suffered health issues and flashed some terrific brilliance. He looked great in 2008 as a relief ace before stepping into what the M's felt was his destiny as a starter. One-hits the Yanks in his very first start, then struggles the rest of September 08. Up and down year in 09 until his last start of the year where he one-hits the A's. Morrow's biggest hurdle is a classic one for young pitchers, changing from a thrower to a pitcher. Too bad there wasn't a veteran Cy Young winner on the team to show him the way, but I'm sure the club has lots of tapes. Morrow has the physical tools -- I'd say it's the mental ones he needs a handle on.
The Jays may not have any aces who will challenge for the Cy Young but if in a couple years they have a group of 2s and 3s, they could call a full house and pray that someone else isn't sitting on four aces.
Contrast with Morrow. His time is hardly up -- he's been dicked around, suffered health issues and flashed some terrific brilliance. He looked great in 2008 as a relief ace before stepping into what the M's felt was his destiny as a starter. One-hits the Yanks in his very first start, then struggles the rest of September 08. Up and down year in 09 until his last start of the year where he one-hits the A's. Morrow's biggest hurdle is a classic one for young pitchers, changing from a thrower to a pitcher. Too bad there wasn't a veteran Cy Young winner on the team to show him the way, but I'm sure the club has lots of tapes. Morrow has the physical tools -- I'd say it's the mental ones he needs a handle on.
The Jays may not have any aces who will challenge for the Cy Young but if in a couple years they have a group of 2s and 3s, they could call a full house and pray that someone else isn't sitting on four aces.
I don't understand why teams like the Nationals and Pirates (and Blue
Jays) don't take chances on guys like Yohermyn Chavez in the Rule
V...let him hang around your non-competitive team for the year, be
completely overmatched in his 100 or so PA, and you've acquired your
team an asset that people here seem to think is significant.
That would only make sense if Chavez were reasonably close to the majors. Right now, like any prospect in Low-A, he is a long-shot. You would have him on your roster for 1 year, then send him down again for at least 1, if not 2 more years. In other words, you block a roster spot for someone who won't contribute this year and is then still 2 years away and has maybe a 10% chance of making it.
That would only make sense if Chavez were reasonably close to the majors. Right now, like any prospect in Low-A, he is a long-shot. You would have him on your roster for 1 year, then send him down again for at least 1, if not 2 more years. In other words, you block a roster spot for someone who won't contribute this year and is then still 2 years away and has maybe a 10% chance of making it.
I think it's just a change of scenery trade, aside from Chavez. Morrow never became better than Tim Lincecum or Clayton Kershaw (see Ricky Romero and Troy Tulowitzki from 2005 draft), who were picked behind him in the 2006 draft and Mariner fans never forgave him for it. League never became what everyone thought he should be. I'm with Mike D (or Mike Green, I can't remember right now) and I think League's pretty damn good as is and will get better in that beautiful pitchers park. I'm crossing my fingers that a change of scenery serves both Brandons well. :)
I'm fine with this one.
I see Toronto with a weak closer situation in 2010, so League could have really improved his trade value. On the other hand, if he had another inconsistent year his value would drop. The downside was less than the upside, but you probably couldn't do a deal like this in 2010 if the downside happened.
On the flip side, League would be very expensive if he was part of a competitive Jays drive (would mean he had blossomed and hit costly eligibilities), so I'm OK with a trade that exchanges frustrating pitchers right now, and buys us a bit more time.
Chavez could be very good, and we would have been better off moving Cooper out of the logjam being created at 1B/DH. But I don't sweat losing him. The system needs to be restocked, that's the only real solution. And outfielders like Chavez are easier to acquire, if necessary, than a starting rotation pitcher. Which Morrow has a chance to be.
I see Toronto with a weak closer situation in 2010, so League could have really improved his trade value. On the other hand, if he had another inconsistent year his value would drop. The downside was less than the upside, but you probably couldn't do a deal like this in 2010 if the downside happened.
On the flip side, League would be very expensive if he was part of a competitive Jays drive (would mean he had blossomed and hit costly eligibilities), so I'm OK with a trade that exchanges frustrating pitchers right now, and buys us a bit more time.
Chavez could be very good, and we would have been better off moving Cooper out of the logjam being created at 1B/DH. But I don't sweat losing him. The system needs to be restocked, that's the only real solution. And outfielders like Chavez are easier to acquire, if necessary, than a starting rotation pitcher. Which Morrow has a chance to be.
"In other words, you block a roster spot for someone who won't contribute this year and is then still 2 years away and has maybe a 10% chance of making it."
Again, what is there to lose? The Twins sat through some brutal developmental pitching from Johan under this strategy. I certainly would rather watch a player like Yohermyn get a few ABs per week and perhaps try and swipe a few bags instead of paying someone like Jose Bautista millions of dollars, assuming my team has zero chance of contention.
Again, what is there to lose? The Twins sat through some brutal developmental pitching from Johan under this strategy. I certainly would rather watch a player like Yohermyn get a few ABs per week and perhaps try and swipe a few bags instead of paying someone like Jose Bautista millions of dollars, assuming my team has zero chance of contention.
Why are people talking about Morrow's control like its an incurable
disease? League has improved dramatically in that area, last year he
was over 4 bb/9 and he has 6 years in pro ball. Morrow has only been
in pro ball for 3 seasons. Morrows walk rate in 2008 was pretty
similar to League's in 2008
I dont think anyone said it couldn't improve, but right now his control is so bad (at least statistically) that it makes League look like Greg Maddux. Morrows total inability to control the zone has been consistent at pretty much every level, even in college. How does he compare to League?
Minor-League Career:
League: 2.9 BB/9
Morrow: 4.4 BB/9
Major-League Career:
League: 3.2 BB/9
Morrow: 5.8 BB/9
Lets not pretend like he improves his control a bit and he's a top flight pitcher. Morrow needs to DRASTICALLY improve his control.
I dont think anyone said it couldn't improve, but right now his control is so bad (at least statistically) that it makes League look like Greg Maddux. Morrows total inability to control the zone has been consistent at pretty much every level, even in college. How does he compare to League?
Minor-League Career:
League: 2.9 BB/9
Morrow: 4.4 BB/9
Major-League Career:
League: 3.2 BB/9
Morrow: 5.8 BB/9
Lets not pretend like he improves his control a bit and he's a top flight pitcher. Morrow needs to DRASTICALLY improve his control.
So the rotation next year is looking like Marcum, Romero, Rzepczynsk, Cecil and Morrow. Richmond and Janssen trying to squeeze in; McGowan and Litsch to return perhaps at midseason; Drabek and Purcey and Mills and Ray seasoning in the minors along with Lance Broadway and Zach Stewart.
Decent depth, but do the Jays drop some cash on a veteran SP free agent? Or would that shoot themselves in the foot for trying to develop all these guys into quality SP?
Decent depth, but do the Jays drop some cash on a veteran SP free agent? Or would that shoot themselves in the foot for trying to develop all these guys into quality SP?
SO - IM(H)O we start 2010 with a Starting Rotation of:
Romero (L), Marcum (R), Rzepczynski (L), Richmond (R), and Cecil (L)
On deck as starters: Drabek (R), Stewart (R), McGowan (R), Litsch (R), Morrow (R), Mills (L), Purcey (L) and Ray (R)
In the Pen: Downs (L), Frasor (R), Janssen (R), Carlson (L), Accardo (R), Camp (R) and Tallet (L)
On deck in the pen: Any of the THIRTEEN STARTERS who don't make the starter cut + Hayhurst (R), Collins (L), Roenicke (R), Murphy (R), Fraquhar (R) and Magnussen (R).
Somehow I think we can survive not having League.
Romero (L), Marcum (R), Rzepczynski (L), Richmond (R), and Cecil (L)
On deck as starters: Drabek (R), Stewart (R), McGowan (R), Litsch (R), Morrow (R), Mills (L), Purcey (L) and Ray (R)
In the Pen: Downs (L), Frasor (R), Janssen (R), Carlson (L), Accardo (R), Camp (R) and Tallet (L)
On deck in the pen: Any of the THIRTEEN STARTERS who don't make the starter cut + Hayhurst (R), Collins (L), Roenicke (R), Murphy (R), Fraquhar (R) and Magnussen (R).
Somehow I think we can survive not having League.
I still think there's another trade coming with Seattle. The two teams seem to have a working relationship now, and Overbay fits their need at first. It wouldn't surprise me to see another team involved to get Toronto an aging innings eater because I don't think Overbay is the kind of player that gets an upper-level prospect, which seems to be the only kind AA is interested in right now (and rightly so).
Chavez put up a great year last year, but prospects in Low A ball really aren't worth that much. The Jays clearly weren't high on him at all, and I'll trust their judgement on this one.
Jack Z may have finally made his first bad trade, but it all comes down to whether Morrow can establish himself as a starter. Definitely something that's worth a shot for the Jays if it only costs a reliever (albeit a very good one) and a low minors prospect.
I think many Mariners fans had overrated Morrow's value and that's why they feel disappointed now.
Jack Z may have finally made his first bad trade, but it all comes down to whether Morrow can establish himself as a starter. Definitely something that's worth a shot for the Jays if it only costs a reliever (albeit a very good one) and a low minors prospect.
I think many Mariners fans had overrated Morrow's value and that's why they feel disappointed now.
I see more trades, and more and more :)
Overbay, downs, tallet, frasor, accardo, Might keep accardo and tallet for one more year though.
I think A.A acquired Morrow for the closer job. We'll know for sure once it's official though. A.A is pretty good telling like it is and where he see the player at.
Overbay, downs, tallet, frasor, accardo, Might keep accardo and tallet for one more year though.
I think A.A acquired Morrow for the closer job. We'll know for sure once it's official though. A.A is pretty good telling like it is and where he see the player at.
It's conceivable Morrow could be a closer but it seems to me closers are more important on contending teams and the Jays aren't that. Meanwhile, the team needs to find some stud starters and Morrow gives us that potential. Interesting to note that USS Mariner had him as the fourth starter in the rotation even after they'd acquired Cliff Lee.
Disagee. I think every effort will be made to groom Morrow as a starter.
I've always been a fan of Morrow personally. For the people who say he doesn't have any secondary stuff i'd urge you to click on his mlb player page and check out some of his highlights. His curveball has great break and nasty depth. His big issue as everyone has said will be harnessing the command of his pitches. He's only 25 and he has cheap years ahead to improve. Not many 25 year olds have great control, including League.
As for League, i was never a huge fan of the way he pitched. Great stuff, but never could really put it together as a pitcher. I think the change of scenery will help both of these players
As for League, i was never a huge fan of the way he pitched. Great stuff, but never could really put it together as a pitcher. I think the change of scenery will help both of these players
random thoughts...
1. the message to M's fans (and other commenters) might be that Jays' prospects are not as bad as they have been told - it's either that or Jack Z screwed up and he's shown no previous signs of being a screw up.
2. The main reason this deal works for me is that marrow has been seriously rushed and mishandled up to this point. the Jays have a solid track record of well-coaching their pitchers so the real possibility that Walton could "fix" marrow the way Arny fixed Romero last year is where the upside lays. League didn't have anything new to learn here.
3. I make the opening day rotation now as
Marcum/Romero/Marrow/Zep with an open competition for #5 between Cecil, Purcey, and Richmond (and possibly some dark horses)
4. I'm prepared now to pretty much trust AA to make any trade he sees fit. I know it's small sample size but i've got to be impressed so far.
1. the message to M's fans (and other commenters) might be that Jays' prospects are not as bad as they have been told - it's either that or Jack Z screwed up and he's shown no previous signs of being a screw up.
2. The main reason this deal works for me is that marrow has been seriously rushed and mishandled up to this point. the Jays have a solid track record of well-coaching their pitchers so the real possibility that Walton could "fix" marrow the way Arny fixed Romero last year is where the upside lays. League didn't have anything new to learn here.
3. I make the opening day rotation now as
Marcum/Romero/Marrow/Zep with an open competition for #5 between Cecil, Purcey, and Richmond (and possibly some dark horses)
4. I'm prepared now to pretty much trust AA to make any trade he sees fit. I know it's small sample size but i've got to be impressed so far.
As for League, i was never a huge fan of the way he pitched. Great stuff, but never could really put it together as a pitcher.
No offense, but League has pretty much outproduced Morrow so how does this statement make sense? You are a fan of Morrow, but not of League...yet League had a 1.0 WAR last season in comparison to Morrow's 0.3 WAR.
No offense, but League has pretty much outproduced Morrow so how does this statement make sense? You are a fan of Morrow, but not of League...yet League had a 1.0 WAR last season in comparison to Morrow's 0.3 WAR.
1. the message to M's fans (and other commenters) might be that Jays' prospects are not as bad as they have been told - it's either that or Jack Z screwed up and he's shown no previous signs of being a screw up.
How are those the only two options? To me the most obvious scenario is that Morrow's perceived trade value was greatly overhyped. Its not even a head scratcher: a reliever/starter tweener with piss-poor control and injury concerns (arm+type 1 diabetes) isn't going to have a huge amount of value. Mariner fans thought they were going to get Snider or Wallace, hell I saw at least one person suggest Lind....for what? A guy who has yet to prove that he is anything more than an average pitcher?
Fangraphs link for League.
I have to think the Jays would be disappointed to have gotten about 40 innings on average a season from League over 5 seasons. When you have a young arm in the pen, I think you want to have them ready to throw 2-3 innings when they come in rather than being one inning guys. I am not sure what the solution for developing power arms is, but the way the Jays handled (the development and role of) League would have to be considered sub-optimum.
I think selling high on League is the right choice by GM AA, but I am not sure about throwing in Chavez.
That was a very classy thing for Doc to do, and I wish him luck in the new league. I don't think I will be able to watch him in a Phillies uniform - too depressing - but at least he's not a Yankee or a Red Sock.
I'm okay with Morrow for League. League has been here several years now, and has never been able to put it together. A change of scenery will probably do him good. And Morrow could work out - while the minors are full of pitchers with great stuff but not enough command, it's easier to teach a hard thrower to find the plate than it is to get a control artist to throw harder. Perhaps Mr. Morrow will be Mel Queen's new project.
I'm okay with Morrow for League. League has been here several years now, and has never been able to put it together. A change of scenery will probably do him good. And Morrow could work out - while the minors are full of pitchers with great stuff but not enough command, it's easier to teach a hard thrower to find the plate than it is to get a control artist to throw harder. Perhaps Mr. Morrow will be Mel Queen's new project.
There's no way Morrow was acquired to be a reliever. League is already a better reliever than Morrow will ever be.
I like the move, in that League had worn out his welcome in Toronto and was simply too inconsistent to become a frontline reliever. I think he could settle in and do very well in Safeco, though. Chavez is an interesting prospect but hasn't shown enough to put him in the near-untouchable category. Morrow might have only a 5-20 percent chance of becoming a quality #2 or #3 starter (to me, he seems more likely to become another Victor Zambrano or David Purcey), but the potential payoff makes the deal worthwhile, especially when the Jays won't be contending for at least a year or two.
Still, I would prefer to see the Jays finagle a trade for someone like Carlos Triunfel (roughly five years younger than Morrow and plays a premium position), who could really help the team as a cheap above-average talent in a few years.
Still, I would prefer to see the Jays finagle a trade for someone like Carlos Triunfel (roughly five years younger than Morrow and plays a premium position), who could really help the team as a cheap above-average talent in a few years.
The Jays have a surplus of relievers and, in general, relievers do not have a huge value in trades. I am happy that the Jays are dealing from strength and they are taking a flyer on a prospect.
The Jays recently added to their scouting team, hopefully they have several scouts telling them Morrow can be "fixed". Trades like this should prove the value of your scouting organization. Dave Cameron pointed out that if League was the best return the Mariners could get, Morrow must not have a great reputation around MLB. The Jays have shown an ability to develop pitchers, can they "fix" Morrow?
Chavez could end up as valuable but he does strikeout a lot and last year he repeated the level. 2010 at high A was going to be his big test.
Classic change-of-scenery deal. Both pitchers have good stuff but neither one has been trusted with a significant role with the club that developed them. I think this could be a win-win deal.
No offense, but League has pretty much outproduced Morrow so how does
this statement make sense? You are a fan of Morrow, but not of
League...yet League had a 1.0 WAR last season in comparison to Morrow's
0.3 WAR.
No offense, but Ricky Romero had a better WAR than Mariano Rivera last season. Do you really want to start using that stat to compare pitchers when performance is not the main driving force behind the stat (i.e. pitch 100 more inferior innings and be rewarded for it)? Give me a break. It's bad enough Ben Zobrist was ranked ahead of Pujols and Mauer using that stat (no one in their right mind would take Zobrist over those two even if the rest of their respective careers were ignored). We have to draw the line somewhere.
As far as this trade, I would have preferred converting League to a starter and see if he could handle it, but not much lost here. A disappointing prospect for a disappointing prospect. Jays just hoping the one they got can start.
This is a wait and see deal.
No offense, but Ricky Romero had a better WAR than Mariano Rivera last season. Do you really want to start using that stat to compare pitchers when performance is not the main driving force behind the stat (i.e. pitch 100 more inferior innings and be rewarded for it)? Give me a break. It's bad enough Ben Zobrist was ranked ahead of Pujols and Mauer using that stat (no one in their right mind would take Zobrist over those two even if the rest of their respective careers were ignored). We have to draw the line somewhere.
As far as this trade, I would have preferred converting League to a starter and see if he could handle it, but not much lost here. A disappointing prospect for a disappointing prospect. Jays just hoping the one they got can start.
This is a wait and see deal.
Morrow kind of reminds me of another former Mariner who had severe control problems early in his career. He turned out OK in the end. Actually early on in their careers, the numbers look strikingly similar...
@SK in NJL: League pitched a whopping 5 more innings than Morrow, so the difference in their WAR is hardly a case of him pitching "100 more inferior innings." As for the Romero/Rivera thing, how do you know its actually not true? There are a lot of people who have stated that "elte" closers are grossly overrated.
I'm not sold on Romero at all, but I'm not suprised that he had a higher WAR then Rivera, Romero had a really good year. WAR doesn't really capture some of the leverage of Rivera's (or other closers) contribution, so it's not totally fair. That being said I think most people realize it's easier to find a closer then an above average starter that's why 99% of us would prefer giving Morrow a chance in the rotation before making him a late inning reliever.
The Jays have an excess of average to above-average young starters. If you buy into the notion that most great relievers are failed starters, this trade makes a ton of sense and I like it a lot. Either due to injuries or administrative decisions, I'll suggest that at least two of Marcum, McGowan, Cecil, Purcey, Rzep et al will likely end up in the pen by 2012 and will be making relatively little coin at that point. Given those options and the fact that he'll be making a few million by 2012, League was absolutely expendable. To get a project with the kind of upside Morrow has is very interesting.
Before I say this let me say that I LIKE the deal so this isn't sour grapes but:
all this talk of being disappointed in League is silly. Lay aside the freak "injury" that wrecked 2007 and he's developed just fine.
It's not his fault his managers don't maximize his abilities.
Superficial judgments of his 2009 ERA mislead. In almost every advanced measure of results, league pitched BETTER in 2009 than in 2008 and that's before you consider that more than half the earned runs he gave up (and 6 of the 8 homers) came in only 12 of his 67 appearances bunched together in three brief rough streaks.
April 12-17: 3 GP, 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1K
June 12-18: 4 GP, 4.1 IP, 9, H, 9 ER, 3 HR, 1 BB, 7 K
Aug 16-21: 3 GP, 2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Total:
16 days, 10 GP, 10.1 IP, 22 H, 22 ER, 6 HR, 5 BB, 11 K, 19.16 ERA, 2.61 WHIP
All other appearances:
164 days, 57 GP, 64.1 IP, 50 H, 16 ER, 2 HR, 16 BB, 66 K, 2.24 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
If I have a closer who pitches his ass off all but two weeks (ish) of the season and I'm good with that.Especially when I'm not in the race. If I'm winning 93 when it takes 95 to make the playoffs, THEN I'll be disappointed by that closer.
all this talk of being disappointed in League is silly. Lay aside the freak "injury" that wrecked 2007 and he's developed just fine.
It's not his fault his managers don't maximize his abilities.
Superficial judgments of his 2009 ERA mislead. In almost every advanced measure of results, league pitched BETTER in 2009 than in 2008 and that's before you consider that more than half the earned runs he gave up (and 6 of the 8 homers) came in only 12 of his 67 appearances bunched together in three brief rough streaks.
April 12-17: 3 GP, 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1K
June 12-18: 4 GP, 4.1 IP, 9, H, 9 ER, 3 HR, 1 BB, 7 K
Aug 16-21: 3 GP, 2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Total:
16 days, 10 GP, 10.1 IP, 22 H, 22 ER, 6 HR, 5 BB, 11 K, 19.16 ERA, 2.61 WHIP
All other appearances:
164 days, 57 GP, 64.1 IP, 50 H, 16 ER, 2 HR, 16 BB, 66 K, 2.24 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
If I have a closer who pitches his ass off all but two weeks (ish) of the season and I'm good with that.Especially when I'm not in the race. If I'm winning 93 when it takes 95 to make the playoffs, THEN I'll be disappointed by that closer.
Morrow kind of reminds me of another former Mariner who had severe control problems early in his career. He turned out OK in the end. Actually early on in their careers, the numbers look strikingly similar...
The link didn't work but I'm guessing you're referring to Randy Johnson. Here are Morrow's comps from baseball-reference.
Joe Kerrigan (986) Jeff Jones (985) Cory Bailey (982) Fred Lasher (981) Justin Masterson (980) Bert Roberge (978) Darren Hall (977) Daryl Patterson (977) Mark Lowe (977) Tom Hurd (976)
The link didn't work but I'm guessing you're referring to Randy Johnson. Here are Morrow's comps from baseball-reference.
Joe Kerrigan (986) Jeff Jones (985) Cory Bailey (982) Fred Lasher (981) Justin Masterson (980) Bert Roberge (978) Darren Hall (977) Daryl Patterson (977) Mark Lowe (977) Tom Hurd (976)
Minor note - According to Griffin in the Star, the Ramon Castro signing is not happening - so back to Chavez as backup currently
(sigh) That was a reference to the Johnson thing.
It's funny that Mark Lowe comes up as Morrow's comp, because he's actually much more like League. He's almost the exact same pitcher.
Speaking of pitchers. Can anyone explained what happened to Fabio Castro?
The Jays got this guy at the end of 2008 in a trade for Matt Stairs. He seemed to pitch OK in the minor last year. Now, he's just been signed by the Red Sox.
The Jays got this guy at the end of 2008 in a trade for Matt Stairs. He seemed to pitch OK in the minor last year. Now, he's just been signed by the Red Sox.
On the subject of Fabio Castro, our own John Northey commented on Nov. 17: "Fabio Castro is a guy I'd think the Jays want to hold onto." And of those Bauxites who expressed an opinion in the subsequent thread, all agreed with John. By the way, Castro had a pretty good winter-league performance in the Dominican recently too. But under AA, we seem to be experiencing very much a philosophy of "out with the old, in with the new." Sure, nobody can argue that Castro was one of the team's top prospects, but he had an impressive 2009 season and seemed to be worth another look. This is another reason to hope that AA's talent evaluation skills aren't less than they're cracked up to be.
Regarding Fabio Castro, I too was in agreement with John Northey about holding unto Castro, although a subsequent eyewitness account by John Sickels
who was underwhelmed by Castro made me sanguine about the decision.
Since we're talking about Fabio Castro, I think he would have given this entire team a good facelift. Vernon Wells could have used some breast augmentation and I understand Brett Wallace wouldn't likely object to an inner thigh lift.
I guess the biggest issue now, which cost Castro his slot here, is roster space for starting pitchers.
Right now I'd project (probably have a guy or two who are gone listed)...
Majors: Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepczynski, Scott Richmond or David Purcey (out of options iirc)
AAA: Robert Ray, Brad Mills, Brandon Morrow (if not in majors, if in majors then Cecil/Rzep/Richmond here),Kyle Drabek (see Morrow comment), loser of Richmond/Purcey for majors
AA: Robert Bell, Brandon Magee, Luis Perez, Randy Boone, Reidier Gonzalez, Kenny Rodriguez, Adrian Martin, Andrew Liebel, ...
Yeah, just a bit of a backlog without even factoring in Litsch, McGowan, and various reliever/starters (such as Tallet) or other A ballers who could be promoted to AA. With that crowd I can see why Castro was cut - the Jays just didn't have enough slots for all of them so someone had to go. Btw, 24 of the 40 man roster is filled by pitchers with just one catcher and 4 outfielders (plus Ruiz).
Right now I'd project (probably have a guy or two who are gone listed)...
Majors: Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepczynski, Scott Richmond or David Purcey (out of options iirc)
AAA: Robert Ray, Brad Mills, Brandon Morrow (if not in majors, if in majors then Cecil/Rzep/Richmond here),Kyle Drabek (see Morrow comment), loser of Richmond/Purcey for majors
AA: Robert Bell, Brandon Magee, Luis Perez, Randy Boone, Reidier Gonzalez, Kenny Rodriguez, Adrian Martin, Andrew Liebel, ...
Yeah, just a bit of a backlog without even factoring in Litsch, McGowan, and various reliever/starters (such as Tallet) or other A ballers who could be promoted to AA. With that crowd I can see why Castro was cut - the Jays just didn't have enough slots for all of them so someone had to go. Btw, 24 of the 40 man roster is filled by pitchers with just one catcher and 4 outfielders (plus Ruiz).
Rather than believing that Jack Z may have made a deal he disagrees with, Dave Cameron believes the Morrow-League swap was part of the Halladay-Lee deal that just wasn't announced at the time.
It's an interesting theory and more plausible than many theories of this sort, but sometimes a trade is just a trade.
It's an interesting theory and more plausible than many theories of this sort, but sometimes a trade is just a trade.
Purcey didn't have his contract purchased until the offseason of 2007 according to Cots, so he should have another option year left. It's still going to be interesting to see how it all shakes down, but the added flexibility can only help.
John, you've forgotten our former top prospect, Zach Stewart.
Interesting theory brought up over at ussmariner, that this deal was "part of the Cliff Lee trade."
Knew I forgot someone. Too many trades, not enough brain cells to track them and Christmas gifts.
I don't know why people think that Castro had a good season in 2009. He had 3 good starts in AA and then was mediocre in AAA for the rest of the year.
Some of you may want to check this site out for analysis on Morrow and his pitching. Very informative and after reading this site, I love this trade even more. AA is certainly living up to his advance billing of being creative and innovative in his work. Keep up the good work Alex.
http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/brandon-morrow-june-24-2009
http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/brandon-morrow-june-24-2009
Interesting theory brought up over at ussmariner, that this deal was "part of the Cliff Lee trade."
Heh.
First posted at MLBTR:
Heh.
First posted at MLBTR:
by the way, it might turn out to be that this deal is a "side deal" that was agreed upon as part of the Halladay trade and that Toronto getting the better value here is simply a function of what the Mariners needed to pay to get Lee.
Posted by: WillRain | December 22, 2009 at 02:36 AM
Some of you may want to check this site out for analysis on Morrow and
his pitching. Very informative and after reading this site, I love this
trade even more. AA is certainly living up to his advance billing of
being creative and innovative in his work. Keep up the good work Alex.
It sounds very positive. Nevertheless, it is clear that Morrow is still very raw. Which brings me back to my questions: Does Morrow still have an option left? At the most it's 1 (in 2008 and 09 he used up two). If he has, I would prefer to have him in AAA for a while, make sure he is 100% ready to stick and use Purcey or Richmond instead. The possible extra losses don't matter, but you don't want to burn up his service time. I'm not sure how long you could keep him down but maybe you can even squeeze an extra year of service out of him, for sure you can delay arb by a year.
It sounds very positive. Nevertheless, it is clear that Morrow is still very raw. Which brings me back to my questions: Does Morrow still have an option left? At the most it's 1 (in 2008 and 09 he used up two). If he has, I would prefer to have him in AAA for a while, make sure he is 100% ready to stick and use Purcey or Richmond instead. The possible extra losses don't matter, but you don't want to burn up his service time. I'm not sure how long you could keep him down but maybe you can even squeeze an extra year of service out of him, for sure you can delay arb by a year.
Rather than believing that Jack Z may have made a deal he disagrees
with, Dave Cameron believes the Morrow-League swap was part of the
Halladay-Lee deal that just wasn't announced at the time.
did he give me credit?
:D
did he give me credit?
:D
Anyone an ESPN insider? K. Law: "Brandon for Brandon creates two winners" Since I'm not an insider, I don't know the details.
Legal action pending? : P
Jokes aside, I can see it having merit. But why wouldn't it just be made at the same time of the big deal? Just to simplify things to ensure the main deal goes through?
Jokes aside, I can see it having merit. But why wouldn't it just be made at the same time of the big deal? Just to simplify things to ensure the main deal goes through?
My theory was that there were a couple of factors that MIGHT have caused the seperation of the two...
One was just further complications in terms of moving bodies and physicals taken and so forth....and the other is the potential of the other player (Chavez) not being firmly set although if that alone was the problem he'd have just been a PTBNL
I do agree that it is wild speculation because there are good arguments for why it would have just been done all at once too.
Unless someone talks we'll never know.
One was just further complications in terms of moving bodies and physicals taken and so forth....and the other is the potential of the other player (Chavez) not being firmly set although if that alone was the problem he'd have just been a PTBNL
I do agree that it is wild speculation because there are good arguments for why it would have just been done all at once too.
Unless someone talks we'll never know.
Regarding the starting pitching depth, I did a little chart. Rather than re-create it here I'll just link it:
http://thesouthpawbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/12/another-look.html
http://thesouthpawbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/12/another-look.html
Not sure if this has been mentioned here or not... the threads involving the halladay are pretty long... but has there been any talk that Pat Gillick has been involved?
He has been with all three teams...
Anyone an ESPN insider? K. Law: "Brandon for Brandon creates two winners" Since I'm not an insider, I don't know the details.
Basic gist is that the M's got 2010 value and certainity for the big potential of Morrow. Also suggested that 2009 was League's peak and not a new establisihed level and that Morrow should be put in AA (not AAA due to the hitters park) and allowed to start with low pressure to try to develop his secondary pitches more.
As for the part of the 'Halladay' deal theory... I just can't see it. Sure you can understand the theory as a Mariners fan but how does it make any sense from the Phillies perspective. They were the team getting hosed in the Cliff Lee portion of the deal... they aren't getting anything out of this at all.
Sickles Top 20 is up for the Jays.
Big surprise is Stewart being ranked ahead of Drabek at #2.
Big surprise is Stewart being ranked ahead of Drabek at #2.
The Sickels list probably deserves its own thread, but another surprise is Sierra not listed in the Top 20. I don't get why everybody's down on him. He made AA at 20! Granted he really tired towards the end of the season, but he's 20.
John Manual posted his top 20 propects at CNNSI.com. Drabek is #16.
Law also says that Morrow "was mishandled by the previous regime in Seattle about as badly as any team could mishandle a prospect." And that his secondary stuff isn't developed, and he provides the recommendation to let Morrow start in Double-A because "the Jays' Triple-A club,
Las Vegas, plays in a hitter's park in a division of hitter's parks, so
it's not the ideal environment for fixing a damaged pitching prospect
-- and see if he can hold up physically under that workload."
While I'm certain there must be a dozen prospects who've suffered worse than Morrow, to even be on a top twenty list is quite an honour.
While I'm certain there must be a dozen prospects who've suffered worse than Morrow, to even be on a top twenty list is quite an honour.
Morrow clearly agrees that he was mishandled by the Mariners. In an interview with old friend Geoff Baker yesterday, he said he suffered a "major, major step back" when he was relegated to the bullpen in 2008. He had been working on off-speed pitches in winter ball in Venezuela, in anticipation of a starter's role, and then after the Bedard and Silva acquisitions he was tossed into the bullpen where he didn't have a chance to continue honing those off-speed pitches. "My growth was stunted" because of this, he told Baker.
My comment: sure, it could be sour grapes, or the last blast of a traded player, but if there's even a kernel of truth in what he says, the Jays have a chance to handle him properly and recover the potential greatness that he has sometimes flashed.
I'm sold by Will and Dave on the trade being part of the larger deal. It just makes too much sense in too many ways. Both of these teams seem to be pretty locked down but maybe word will trickle out of Philadelphia at some point.
Then I guess Jack Z is a liar (is it a lie if you know the truth?), because he told the Seattle media today that these were two separate and exclusive deals.
Maybe they are separate trades or maybe they just want to give the appearance that they are. Even if he is 'lying', I wouldn't put it in the JP category as the trade can stand alone on it's own anyway.
I know most people think Seattle got hosed, but as someone who could not wait for the League era to be over, I still think they did ok. Morrow needed to go somewhere and start over, Seattle really has had a nice offseason and if League's ERA improves like the ratios lead you to believe it might it probably helps them more in 2010 then Morrow would. Seattle has a 2 year window, they need to cash in.
I know most people think Seattle got hosed, but as someone who could not wait for the League era to be over, I still think they did ok. Morrow needed to go somewhere and start over, Seattle really has had a nice offseason and if League's ERA improves like the ratios lead you to believe it might it probably helps them more in 2010 then Morrow would. Seattle has a 2 year window, they need to cash in.
By the way, has anyone done a recent count of how many 1st-round draft picks are in the Toronto organization now, after the latest acquisitions? Wallace, Drabek, d'Arnaud, Morrow, Snider, Hill, Romero, Purcey, McGowan, Wells, Cecil, Jackson, Arencibia, Ahrens..... Hmmm, the list gets too unwieldy if you include the sandwich picks etc, so maybe if we count only the top-15 picks from the first round? Does it seem like an unusually large number at this point? Not sure if we're seeing any trends here, but I find it intriguing that AA has now acquired four 1st-round draft picks in a row. It does seem that pedigree (or the early scouting consensus) is important to him.
Then I guess Jack Z is a liar (is it a lie if you know the truth?)
92-93, what do you know about Jack Z? Do you know the guy doesn't really like baseball that much? Do you know the guy doesn't have a passion to be a GM that much?
... God I miss hearing JP speak.
92-93, what do you know about Jack Z? Do you know the guy doesn't really like baseball that much? Do you know the guy doesn't have a passion to be a GM that much?
... God I miss hearing JP speak.
To the indication that being a high first round pick indicates that the player has a high potential (sorry Luke Hochevar and Brian Bullington) the strategy fits with the goals that AA has stated in the past.
Now the organization has to find a way of developing and realizing that talent. The track record over the past decade hasn't exactly been stellar but then again quite a few of the Jays first round picks have been sign-ability picks.
I really like what AA is doing. Time will tell though.
Now the organization has to find a way of developing and realizing that talent. The track record over the past decade hasn't exactly been stellar but then again quite a few of the Jays first round picks have been sign-ability picks.
I really like what AA is doing. Time will tell though.
Almsot as surprising as his high regard for Stewart - at least ot me - was having Schempf in the Top 20
Then I guess Jack Z is a liar (is it a lie if you know the truth?),
because he told the Seattle media today that these were two separate
and exclusive deals.
Alex told Blair on the Fan that he and Z had been talking a Dos Brandons deal for a month or so now (since the GM meetings maybe?) and it was pretty much implied they had a rough agreement on the primaries and had simply been trying to work out who the boot was going to be.
That would bely the notion that this was directly a part of the Doc deal. At most perhaps there was a "wink & nod" understanding of some sort (like, for instance, maybe Alex turned Amaro on to the M's as a potential destination or Z on to the news that Lee was available)...just a sort of "other considerations" type thung.
But clearly AA is not implying anything that would connect the two and he's said more than one since taking over (in what is, to me, the closest thing he's said to a shot at JP) that the no-comment policy comes from the fact that he refuses to lie, but sometimes that means he can't say anything at all.
Alex told Blair on the Fan that he and Z had been talking a Dos Brandons deal for a month or so now (since the GM meetings maybe?) and it was pretty much implied they had a rough agreement on the primaries and had simply been trying to work out who the boot was going to be.
That would bely the notion that this was directly a part of the Doc deal. At most perhaps there was a "wink & nod" understanding of some sort (like, for instance, maybe Alex turned Amaro on to the M's as a potential destination or Z on to the news that Lee was available)...just a sort of "other considerations" type thung.
But clearly AA is not implying anything that would connect the two and he's said more than one since taking over (in what is, to me, the closest thing he's said to a shot at JP) that the no-comment policy comes from the fact that he refuses to lie, but sometimes that means he can't say anything at all.
I'm sold by Will and Dave on the trade being part of the larger deal.
I'm not. Dave's argument seems to boil down to this conspiracy theory of sorts is likelier than the fact that Jack Z might value players differently than he does.
200 comments in one thread? When's the last time that happened? I sense Bauxites are ... bored!
All I want for Christmas is a new thread.
Oh, and a shortstop prospect.
Here's a good analysis of the trade from Fangraphs.
If someone publishes “Pitcher Development for Dummies,” there ought to be an entire chapter devoted to how Morrow was mishandled in his early days in Seattle.
If someone publishes “Pitcher Development for Dummies,” there ought to be an entire chapter devoted to how Morrow was mishandled in his early days in Seattle.
Anthopoulos is comparing Morrow to Burnett.
You know, he reminds me a lot of A.J. Burnett – in terms of his delivery and the stuff,” Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos said yesterday
I'm not sure what to make of that.........
As well he said something interesting,
“He’s the type of guy, from a scouting perspective and from a statistical perspective, that we think the control and command is going to improve,” Anthopoulos said. “We don’t know when.
I'm not sure what statistical analysis he's referring to- historical ? Pitch/FX ? Hard to know. I'm just glad he's using sabermetrics in his decision process.
You know, he reminds me a lot of A.J. Burnett – in terms of his delivery and the stuff,” Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos said yesterday
I'm not sure what to make of that.........
As well he said something interesting,
“He’s the type of guy, from a scouting perspective and from a statistical perspective, that we think the control and command is going to improve,” Anthopoulos said. “We don’t know when.
I'm not sure what statistical analysis he's referring to- historical ? Pitch/FX ? Hard to know. I'm just glad he's using sabermetrics in his decision process.
All this still doesn't help me, who plays Right Field?
I guess the biggest issue now, which cost Castro his slot here, is roster space for starting pitchers.
I wasn't suggesting we put him in the rotation. He's a lefty. You'd think he had some value. We picked up Sean Henn on waivers and I hope he never throws one pitch in a Blue Jays uniform.
Vegas is a awful place to pitch. It was bearable when the Jays were low on prospects, but as they are trying to rebuild, it's going to be nothing but a hindrance going on.
I wasn't suggesting we put him in the rotation. He's a lefty. You'd think he had some value. We picked up Sean Henn on waivers and I hope he never throws one pitch in a Blue Jays uniform.
Vegas is a awful place to pitch. It was bearable when the Jays were low on prospects, but as they are trying to rebuild, it's going to be nothing but a hindrance going on.