1.  Bautista-31
2.  Gregg-24
3.  .895
4.  .253
5.  224
6.  A bunch of pitchers will get starts in September.  The last 5 games will be started by Rzepczynski, Romero, Litsch, Marcum and Drabek (in his debut). 
7.  78-84.

I'm going to be optimistic here...so lets go with 1. Bautista - 36 2. Gregg - 34 3. .880 4. .266 5. 255 6. Marcum, Romero, Litsch, Cecil, Morrow 7. 85-77 I could see them playing around the same pace through the entire year. Litsch hopefully will give them another pretty good starter to keep things rolling. The bats should be there the whole year as well, with a wildcard being Wallace.

Someone on bluejays.com said that Griff reported that Cito met with Overbay after the game and told him he would either be moved down in the order or benched.

Has anyone read that?

Bautista @ 44
Gregg @ 20, but he will have lost the closer's job by then
Wells @ 910
Hill @ 260
HRs @ 260
Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Janssen and Litsch
81-81

1- Who will lead the team in HRs and how many?  (Current Leader: Bautista- 15)

Wells 31 (JB comes in at 27)

2- Who will lead the team in Saves? (Current Leader: Gregg- 12)

Gregg - hard to guess a total but he has too much of a lead to lose I think

3- Vernon Wells' final OPS? (Currently .940)

About .870

4- Aaron Hill's final batting average? (Currently .159)

.265
5- Combined HR for entire team (Currently- 79, Pace- 267, Team
Record- 244 [2004], Major League record- 264 [1997 Mariners])

250

6- Who will compose the 5-man rotation come October?

Just taking it by most starts in September-
Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Litsch, Zep

7- And, of course, final team record? (Currently 27-21)

86 - 76

Grif tweeted the meeting as fact, then speculated on what was said

WR - Will be very surprised if our HR leader only has 31 and the team hits 250 -

We'd probably need 9 guys hitting 25 to manage that....

 

1. Wells 34
2. Gregg 25
3. .881
4. .236
5. 240
6. Romero, Rzepczynski, McGowan, Litsch, Richmond (everybody else shut down)
7. 86-76 (down a bit from preseason forecast)

1. Vernon 34

2. Gregg 19 (before he is traded)

3. .910

4. .235

5. Romero, Marcum, Litsch, Zep, Mills

6. 232

Normally I am a big fan of letting my mind invent possible Jay's outcomes - however May 31st to the All-Star break has me thinking we're doing this too early.

Starting May 31 we play 36 games: TB 6 times (32-14 their record before today's games), NY 6 (26-18), BOS 3 (26-21), COL 3 (23-22), SD 3 (27-18), SF 3 (23-21), STL 3 (26-20), PHI 3 (26-13), MIN 3 (26-18) and the only losing record we face in that time: CLE 3 (17-27).

Come the All-Star break I'll happily engage in this fun - IF by that time any of us are still watching the Jays. Because of my mental illness, and the beneficial effects of single malt scotch, I know I'll still be here - can't speak for the rest of you.

I reversed 5 and 6.

7. 79-83 (assuming many trades by the end of July)

1. JoBau 51 HR

2. Gregg 33 SV

3. Wells OPS .939

4. Hill BA .261

5. Team HR 274

6. Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Litsch

5. 100 - 62

Bonus: Gold $1650 by October 31st

1)Bautista 29
2)Gregg 31
3).843
4).224
5)209
6)Romero, Cecil, Mills, Drabek, Morrow (Marcum-IR, Litsch-bullpen)
7)79

Mugs game - no good at these.

HR: Wells 35

Saves: Gregg 25

Wells OPS: 850

Hill Avg: 275 (major hot streak coming)

HR for team: 190

Rotation: 2011 will be Marcum/Romero/Cecil/Rzep/Morrow but 2010's end will be Marcum/Romero/3 kids or vets as the other 3 will be past inning limits

Final Record: 81-81 - beat up on the non Yank/Sox/Rays but butt kicked by those 3.

Extra question: who will lead in wins?

Right now we have 4 each for Romero/Marcum/Cecil and 3 each for Morrow/Eveland/Janssen while Frasor has 2.

I'll go for Marcum with 15 while Cecil & Romero both crack 12 wins.

Players will change but... 1)JB 41, 2)Fraser 21, 3).910, 4).270, 5) 275 6) Romero, Rzepcyznski, Litch, Richmond, Ray. 7) 88/74

1. Adam Lind, 30 HR

2. Kevin Gregg

3. Vernon Wells OPS = .869

4. Aaron Hill BA = .271

5. 216 team HRs

6. I couldn't care any less about the October rotation, because hopefully guys will be shut down once the Jays are out of it. I would want the 3 guys making starts in October to be something like Litsch-Rzepczynski-Ray/Stewart, and not any of the 4 guys comprising the top of the current rotation.

7. 83-79

I purposely didn't look at anyone else's answers before I posted mine and am astonished nobody took Lind or Hill to lead the team in HRs.

1. Wells - 24 (Bautista will have more at the end but he will be wearing a different uniform by the end of the season)
2. Gregg - 25
3. .820
4. .241
5. 167
6. Marcum/Romero/Litsch/Tallet/Richmond
7. 64-98

1. Lind (28)

2. Gregg (26)

3. .835

4. .262

5. 230

6. Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Litsch

7. 79 - 83

really, 64-98 Ron? I'm no math expert, but to do that they would have to go something like 37-87 the rest of the way, which I believe is under .300 ball. I don't even think Baltimore is that bad.

really, 64-98 Ron? I'm no math expert, but to do that they would have to go something like 37-87 the rest of the way, which I believe is under .300 ball. I don't even think Baltimore is that bad.

I'm just sticking with my prediction at the beginning of the season.

1) Bautista - 36 HR (I'm starting to believe some of it's for real... with a little career-year-ness thrown in)
2) Greg - 25 Saves before he's dealt.
3) .885 OPS and average defense for a good bounce-back season for Wells
4) .283 - Hill's always been a streaky guy.
5) 210 HR
6) Romero, Cecil, Zep, Mills and Tallet (I think Morrow will get shut down a bit early after running out of gas with an inconsistent year, but with good development along the way... and a 5 Lefty rotation amuses me).
7) 79-83 (I'm with Gerry on turnover for July 31st. Good overall year, though, getting building blocks good development time.)

1- Who will lead the team in HRs and how many?  (Current Leader: Bautista- 15)
I can see him get to 20 by the HR Derby and then hit only 5 after that. Remember Rios post-Derby in 2007?

2- Who will lead the team in Saves? (Current Leader: Gregg- 12)
Probably Gregg, even if he's traded. The 2nd half of the season will be extreme closer by committee.

3- Vernon Wells' final OPS? (Currently .940)
No reason to believe he'll finish any lower than the .840 he had in 2008. When he's healthy, he's a fine player.

4- Aaron Hill's final batting average? (Currently .159)
Around .260 with a .770 OPS. He's still getting his timing back but he's also regressing predictably.

5- Combined HR for entire team (Currently- 79, Pace- 267, Team Record- 244 [2004], Major League record- 264 [1997 Mariners])
Somewhere around 180-200

6- Who will compose the 5-man rotation come October?
Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Litsch, Rzep.

7- And, of course, final team record? (Currently 27-21)
Still sticking with my 73 win preseason prediction.

Wow. I can't believe I forgot Marcum in my end of year rotation... my favorite starter to watch, too.

Well, since the 5 lefties are out, drop Tallet and Mills and add in Litch as well.

Coming off TJ, do you think Marcum is going to still be pitching into October?  In healthy years he always seemed to tire, I imagine they'd shut him down in September.  Along with Cecil, Morrow, Drabek and Stewart.

That wouldn't really leave too many pitchers available if they shut them all down.  I expect an easing rather than a shut-down; Marcum might make 3 starts in September on that theory.  Marcum also looks much stronger in the lower body than before, and I expect him to be a little more durable than before his surgery. 

1- Lind with 35
2- Gregg with 25
3- 900
4- .260
5- 243
6- Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Litsch, Zep
7- 82 - 80

That wouldn't really leave too many pitchers available if they shut them all down.

Well I'm talking about shutting down three pitchers in our current rotation - Marcum, Cecil and Morrow - not all of them.  And whether you shut them down or slow them down, it's no difference.  There's an inning cap in mind and someone else has to make up those innings. 

And there're plenty of candidates.  I've noted Richmond and McGowan in my prediction earlier - granted a risky prediction, but you could go with Janssen, Tallet, Ray, Perez, Mills, Boone, Jackson, Purcey, etc.  We're just talking about a couple of starts at the end of the year.

Unless you're expecting a pennant race that's worth of risking the arms.

Did somebody say Pennant Race?

Story on MLB.com about the Jays possibly being buyers at the deadline. The conclusion is 'who knows', but article has some quotes from AA, so thought I would link it. MLBTR briefly discusses the article as well.

http://mlbastian.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/05/will_jays_look_to_add_too_earl.html

I'm just sticking with my prediction at the beginning of the season.

No you're not, you're just being antagonistic for some strange reason...unless you thought Aaron Hill was a .241 hitter entering the year, in which case...

Did somebody say Pennant Race?

Yes, but unfortunately, at this point, we're sellers.. We're in 4th in the AL East. In 3rd place for the wildcard.. It seems to me the Beasts of East are even more Beastly this year...  We're about 0.5 games behind Minnesota, tied with Texas for 5th place in the entire AL. And yet 4th in the AL East.

You know, the time-honoured phrase "pennant race" is sometimes misconstrued.  It's not a sprint, but a long-distance run.  We are into the third lap of eight, and maybe in the next couple of laps, we will have an idea who is likely to be around when the bell rings.

1-  Jose Bautista final HR total - 45 . 
             Two things I need to say about this.  1) Something about his season so far reminds me of Tony Batista in 2000.  Tony hit 41 that year and I think Jose may hit a few more.  2) Cito happened to be the hitting coach for the aforementioned 2000 Jays when 7 guys hit 20 or more long balls.  Could be coincidence but what if it's just the "Cito Effect"?  If it is a Cito effect - is it good player management or something special he slips in the gatorade jugs?

2-  Saves Leader - Gregg- 32

3-  Vernon Wells' final OPS  .940 
               Up and down it may go but my gut tells me he'll end up right around where he is right now.

4-  Aaron Hill's final batting average .269.   
               Remember the beginning of last year?   Aaron started red hot.  He's one big hot streak away from bring the BA back up near career norms.

5-  Combined HR for entire team - 251. 
               Enough for the team record but not enough for the ML record.  Although I'm hoping for the ML record as that would be an amazing run for a team billed as non-contenders before the season started.  But the best reason is because chicks dig the long ball :)

6-  Who will compose the 5-man rotation come October - Marcum, Litsch, Romero, Tallet, Scrabble

7-  Final team record? 85 - 79.  
               I still think this is an 82-89 win team so we'll stick close to my pre-season projection.

Really gotta double check the numbers sometimes - make that 85-77 for final W-L total :)

Fun to be optimistic but I seriously doubt the Jays will be big time buyers at the deadline.

Now, if the Jays go on a 12 game winning streak vs just east teams over the next 2 weeks then things get very, very interesting. Realistically a 6-6 record over those 12 will be a moral victory and any players gained would be for 2011.

Thus buyers if the right player is available at the right price - namely 'eat this contract and we'll give him to you' or 'we think he is an idiot, but if you want to give it a shot'. Don't know of guys who could be available that way, but who knows.

Interesting to check Cot's Contracts and see the Jays payroll as of opening day being listed as under $80 mil with $16 mil going to Ryan and Halladay. Only Wells over $10, Overbay and Encarnacion over $5. There is tons of payroll space for the Jays to use if they want to this year, and if some team is dumping salaries then the Jays should jump in.

Baltimore is out of it and paying silly money to a few guys but only Markakis would be tempting and he ain't leaving Baltimore I suspect. Cleveland has Hafner (DH, just what we need) and Sizemore (560 OPS in CF). Seattle has Ichiro (heh, yeah right), Milton Bradley (no thanks), Chone Figgins (563 OPS), and King Felix making good money and signed past this season and none are coming here.

Anyone want to dig in further? Just used http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com and http://www.baseball-reference.com/ to dig in.

1- Who will lead the team in HRs and how many?

The Amazing Joey Bats - Bautista, with 37. I'm a Believer.

2- Who will lead the team in Saves?

Don't think he keeps the job all year, but Gregg with 23.

3- Vernon Wells' final OPS?

Oh, .903 - he's been there before.

4- Aaron Hill's final batting average?

Never been that big a fan, but he's not this bad. He's dug himself quite a hole, though. Let's say .255.

5- Combined HR for entire team?

Some guys will cool off, shurely? So 232.

6- Who will compose the 5-man rotation come October?

Marcum, Romero, Litsch, Morrow, Rzepczynski.

7- And, of course, final team record?

Like Ron, I'll stick with my original forecast (76-86) for now. But I just finished anticipating a tough 23 game stretch, 18 of them on the road - a 10-13 mark would have been more than satisfactory to me. They went 14-9, and may have more surprises in store.

I didn't partake in the guessing game, though I did enjoy reading some of the responses and discussions.

Just wanted to add that I expect Cecil to be in the rotation at season's end.

No you're not, you're just being antagonistic for some strange reason...unless you thought Aaron Hill was a .241 hitter entering the year, in which case...

I don't think that's a fair comment. If I wanted to be antagonistic, I would be telling everyone how the Jays aren't worth watching and how terrible the team is. If you look into the Batters Box archive, you will see I correctly predicted the Jays win total for last seaosn. I didn't change my prediction when they got off to a hot start last season and I won't do it this season. I didn't think they would be over .500 at his point but there are too many red flags for me not to ignore. The Jays have had a soft schedule so far and numerous players playing over their demonstrated ability. In the meantime, I'm just enjoying some entertaining baseball.

Anyone want to dig in further?

Well, as much as it is all warm fuzzies to think of acquiring help...

As it stands now - and as it has to stand if there's any point in buying - Wells, Lind, Hill, Bautista, and Buck are pretty much locked in (Hill in that he did so well in '09 and Buck in that few catchers are outpreforming him right now) And that means you have to improve on Lewis, Snider, Gonzo, or Overbay if you are going to add a hitter.

Among 1B...

Paul Konerko - last year of his deal, likely to regress

Adam LaRoache - notoriously hot second half hitter, wonder if you could give them a good prospect on the stipulation that the take Overbay back (with the Jays eating the proper amount of money so as to not cost them any more;

Otherwise, once you eliminate the guys who aren't moving and the ones who are too expensive, I don't see one who is noticeably better than putting EE over there.

at short...

Really no promising options here - you probably are not going to upgrade even a regressed Gonzo

in the outfield...
(operating from the assumption that we need a player who can lead off if Lewis is replaced and that Snider is unlikely to be blocked)

I don't see an affordable available slugger I like better than Snider. And i don't see someone available and affordable who can do Lewsi' job ENOUGH better than he does (so far) to be worth giving up other than marginal prospects for. If that.

So what I'm saying here is that, beyond special cases like Alex Gordon, there's not a lot of situations out there I like. But LaRoche? That might have some legs...

the D'Backs were talking trade for O'bay (albeit before his slow start) last winter;
LaRoche is a tradeable part because the D'Backs are non contenders;
The Jays have the money to keep the higher contract;
We have depth to trade from without hurting ourselves;

So I think the Jays might be on the cusp of either being a buyer or a seller - certainly, AA will be more aggressive either way than JP ever was. I like that - a real gamer, IMO.

If we were to buy, though, WillRain, why another bat - that is not our big challenge right now. And is LaRoche on the final year of his contract and so would be a rental? With Wallace, we surely don't need a long-term solution at first.

Where I see us weakest (and most likely to falter vs. the AL East monsters) is in our serious need for at least one more starting pitcher. If only we had something Houston wanted, I would love it if they swung a deal for Roy Oswalt - he seems keen to move elsewhere. Would the Astros go for EE and a couple of mid-level prospects? JB at 3rd would be a marked improvement defensively (albeit not great). And if Overbay continues to struggle at 1B, why should Arizona want that deal now?

The way I see it, Litsch should at least be back to making a meaningful contribution soon after he gets here, but that will still leave a walking time bomb in Morrow. None of Mills, Scrabble, Tallet show signs of imminent readiness, and though Drabek and Stewart may have more upside, they are further away still.

All speculative fun, I realize, but AA will do something significant, I feel sure of it.

It is fun to speculate. I was going on the assumption the Jays have some cash available if they can get someone to fill a need in 2011 with 2010 time being a bonus.

LaRoche is a solid hitter - 281/369/523 this year vs 274/344/493 lifetime. 3 years in a row of 120's OPS+ (including this year). 5 years of 20+ HR. $4.5 this year with a $1.5 buyout for 2011 (mutual option worth $9.5 if traded). Send them Overbay and $3-4 million along with a minor prospect and you're set if Arizona wants that little in exchange. LaRoche would be a free agent if the option isn't taken, thus worth a sandwich or 2 picks depending while Overbay won't be worth that much.

I see a LaRoche trade as a treading water position though. Depending on draft picks and prospects it could be worthwhile but I don't see a lot of reasons for either team to do it.

Why LaRoache?

Because over the last three years he's a .900+ hitter in the second half.

Why would Arizona want Overbay?

Same as in the winter, to fill the hole in the absence of a prospect being ready - and in order to get the better prospect that comes with him (presumably)

why not Oswalt?

Because he controls where he goes and i don't think he'd approve a deal to Toronto (reports say he wants as close to his MS home as possible but there's not really a close option)  - my guess is that the AL team with the best shot there is Minesota, especially if they are willing to let go Ramos.

Why not another good pitcher?

Because the difference makers cost too much (Lee) or are not that much of an upgrade. the few guys I might take a long look at are Tim Hudson.(if the Braves fall out completely), and Josh Johnson (doubt he's available),

I wouldn't give what it would take to get Lee, and Oswalt wouldn't come here.

I don't see another obviously available guy that I'd sit one of our better guys for. Marcum, Romero, and Cecil are money, IMO. Morrow could potentially be replaced but it's a huge blow to our plan to develop him if we do. Might as well include him in the deal. The fifth spot is, well, only the fifth starter and over the course of the season there are at least five reasonable options to fill the spot.
I could see the wisdom in adding a closer if there was one who had a solid track record drifting into the market at a reasonable price.

The two obvious candidates are Bell (maybe too expensive) and Soria (ditto, but possibly easier to swindle)

1- Bautista 35
2- Gregg 31
3- .880
4- .270
5- 250
6- Romero, Marcum, Cecil, Litsch, Rzepczynski
7-94-68

Speaking of pitcher, last week on ESPN there was an article suggesting that the Jays were heavily scouting Fausto Carmona.