Let's see AA ca;ll a live media event press conference where he invites all four, then hands one of them a blue rose ...

First off, it's sad when a blowout MNF game between 2 small market teams easily beats out a playoff game between

NY & TX.

It seems all these reports piggybacked on Gammons tweet - believe Gammons at your own risk.

I would be stunned if Butterfield got the job - I don't think i can remember an organisation doing such due

diligence and then picking an internal candidate

First off, it's sad when a blowout MNF game between 2 small market teams easily beats out a playoff game between NY & TX.

True, but for what it's worth, locally -- where some might expect high school football to outdraw a Rangers' playoff game -- Game 1 was the #1 program in that timeframe for North Texas by, reportedly, 2:1!

It sounds like the Jays have a big decision to make today..... (via Gammons)

I had three people yesterday who are very close to a couple of Toronto people tell me that it was definitely going to be John Farrell. But I was told during the night that Alex, the general manager, told the Red Sox people that he still hasn’t made up his mind, that DeMarlo Hale really appeals to him. He leans towards DeMarlo Hale, and Tony LaCava and other people lean towards Farrell,” said Gammons. “I think you may know by tonight. I think that decision is supposed to be made and they’re supposed to let the Red Sox know by tonight whether it’s going to be DeMarlo or John.

It's easy to see the leaks are coming out of Boston based on this account.

It's easy to see the leaks are coming out of Boston based on this account.

That, and the fact that these rumors originated with guys who are closely connected to the Boston Red Sox.  It seems like none of the Toronto guys have a source or care.

Let me be the first to congratulate John Farrell on becoming the new manager of the Toronto Blue Jays***

*** above comment based on heresay and deduction.  I accept no responsibility for its accuracy.

From Nick Cafardo, another Boston reporter:

Hale confirmed he's out. Farrell will get the Jays job if a contract can be worked out.The Sox must now find a new pitching coach which is one of the toughest areas to fill. Sox pitchers had been accustomed to Farrell's throwing program

More from Cafardo:

If Farrell is hired, Pawtucket manager Torey Lovullo, with ties to Farrell from the Indians system, would have a chance to be on Farrell's staff.

Lovullo was a managerial candidate himself, I believe he was considered for the Cleveland job.

For what it's worth Bob Elliott says Farrell is the man.

The Red Sox have had had enough waiting and told the Jays to hurry up, setting a Friday deadline. Boston needed to put its own coaching staff together.

There's some good Farrell media here, here and my favourite here.

Some of the images are quite damning, actually.

The final proof that John Farrell is the new manager comes from Red Sox owner John Henry:

"The Jays are getting a great baseball man and a great person,'' John Henry wrote in an e-mail to the Boston Globe of Farrell. "We were able to keep John as a part of our organization longer than a couple of other teams would have wanted, but it really is time for John to step up to the next level."

"He will be an effective, excellent manager," Henry said of Farrell. "I expect him to manage in MLB for as long as he wants to. He's going to an excellent young team with a strong and smart hierarchy. The Blue Jays are going to be a force in the AL East for some time to come. I am grateful for the years John Farrell gave to the Red Sox. He will be missed.''

 Let me repeat those inspirational words from the Red Sox owner, and hope that it's more than just polite flattery:

He's going to an excellent young team with a strong and smart hierarchy. The Blue Jays are going to be a force in the AL East for some time to come.

I hope Jays officially announce their manager soon.

I believe that baseball announcements are not permitted during the World Series, so I would imagine the announcement would come Monday or Tuesday.

• Four free agent signings for 3 years in length:  Downs, Benoit, Thornton and Konerko (yes, I know their ages, but these three pitchers would anchor our pen, Thornton would be a far more dependable closer than Gregg, and with Konerko in the batting lineup, we would get a lot more power, more average, and better performance vs. LHP); and individually and collectively, they are all highly dependable year over year; we would be giving up compensation for two A picks plus a B, while getting compensation for Frasor
  
• A trade for Kelly Johnson (Hill shifting to 3B) (for a package of the calibre of Rzep, Carlson, Camp, and one of Farquhar/Farina/Magnuson, to substantially attack the D'backs' pitching gaps; I would even give up a prized pitching prospect like McGuire); if this does not work, a package for Uggla or Weeks, or ...?
  
• Let Frasor, Gregg, Overbay, Lewis and Wise find jobs elsewhere;
  
• Bring just three players up from the minors - S. Hill or Drabek, plus Mastroianni and Emaus for speed, defence and OBP
  

• Do you want to keep Lind at DH or re-sign Encarnacion and put him at DH?  My instinct says that EE can be taught to be a consistent 35+ HR hitter as DH, and Lind could be traded.  EE also has a much better split vs. LHP.  Others might prefer Lind's hitting prospects, thinking he can come back to his performance of 2009.  Either scenario is highly consistent with a pennant-winning 2011.
• What about Buck vs. JPA?  If I was going for it in 2011, I would re-sign Buck (who would love nothing better than to get the contract he wants in Toronto) and trade JPA for a big chunk of prospect talent at, say, 3B, OF, or 1B, knowing that by the time that Buck starts to fade, Carlos Perez could replace him. 
  
• I would be willing to let Lind and/or JPA be part of the package I would trade to complete the 2B/3B solution trade
  

• Escobar
• Snider
• Bautista
• Konerko
• Wells
• Johnson
• Hill
• Encarnacion
• Buck

Stephen Brunt's take on the new manager, from today's Globe and Mail:

"Farrell is not a caretaker. His job will be to win. He is a pitching coach by trade taking over a team deep in live arms, and arrives at a time when the critical talent mass seems nearly there. A season or two from now, the owners will be expected to dip into their pockets to pay for the final pieces, and then the Jays will take their once-in-a-blue-moon shot."

.....Do you want to keep Lind at DH or re-sign Encarnacion and put him at DH?.....

I think AA is committed to the Lind-Hill gamble for another half a season, at least.  In other words, AA will gamble on a bounceback by both of them, since their chances are just as good as those of any potential replacement.  But if they continue to stink for most of the 2011 season, he's not a sentimental guy -- he'll be looking around for replacements.

As for Encarnacion -- he made $4.75 million in 2010 and will be due a salary increase in arbitration.  I just don't think AA wants to pay $6-million for a DH with a .305 OBP.  Lind will surely do better than that in 2011, even though he failed to do it in 2010.  In any case, neither Lind nor Encarnacion have much trade value at this point.  No point in keeping both of them, and Lind is the more likely to improve in 2011.

• I look to Farrell's expertise and a general maturation of young staff to pick up an average of 1.5 more wins per each of the first four starters - they could do much better than that, or instead fall back.  Still, this is the age and stage that they are going to find more consistency, and adding the skills from the new regime to what they learned from the previous regime (e.g., a dependable change-up) will make this eminently possible [+6]
  
• The fifth starter role has four candidates, it seems to me - Drabek, Rzepczynski, Stewart or Hill, and my guess is that Hill is your man in the near term.  But if any one of them begins the season and falters, the Jays surely have a capacity to go with somoene who could, by season's end, add two more wins than the previous grab-bag of candidates did over this past season [+2]
• The above improvements assume that the Jays produce the same number of runs as last year.  We can be sure, however, that a real focus on improving on-base percentage will put some baserunners on for the sluggers to drive home.  My avatar namesake, Mr. Weaver, was quite repetitive on the subject of the "three-run homer", not the "solo homer".  If my suggestion of acquiring Konerko and Johnson and losing Overbay, Lewis (and EE at 3B), came about, we could add a net of, say, 20 more home runs and also ramp up the OBP, even if Hill and Lind did not return to 2009 performance.  I think many of us feel that Snider will come into his own and add a lot of SLG and OBP next year.  So on this scenario, I see an increase in runs generating more wins [say, +3]
• My proposal for FA signings would lead to an improvement in the pen, but let's say that the best AA can do is to keep us even there
• At this stage, we are up 11 wins on this season before making adjustments, i.e., the magical 96 wins
• Now recognize that quite likely, 2 of those wins each would come from the hide of the Yankees and the Rays, so that the magic number might drop to 94 or so
• Of course, we can't know which of the AL East teams will be more hit by injuries or will take longer to bring those players back; we can't know whether the Orioles will improve more at the expense of the Jays or of the Sox, Yankees or Rays; we can't know whether the Jays will learn to defeat their nemeses from the NL, at long last, and so on...
  

AA will be investigating trades before considering Free Agents.   Our biggest assets in trades are the pitchers.   I would keep Ricky Romero, Brandon Marrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Shawn Camp, David Purcey and Taylor Buchholz.   I would trade the rest of the Staff, if neccessary.

I would trade Shaun Marcum if a Stud was coming back in the deal.   I would trade Marc Rzepczynski if a Stud was coming back in the deal, but it must be a separate deal than the Marcum deal.   I would add Zach Stewart to either deal to add substance and top value to that deal.   Shawn Hill, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond and Robert Ray can be traded to add depth to a trade.  Jesse Carlson, Casey Janssen  and Josh Roenicke will add value to any deal with Jeremy Accardo, Brian Tallet, Rommie Lewis and Dirk Hayhurst will add depth to any deal.

I would trade Travis Snider and/or J.P. Arencibia if a Stud was coming back or as part of a bigger deal.   I would trade minor prospects as needed.

Why?   We finished with 85 wins!   Much more than most people originally expected.

Get an Ace for the Staff.   This should be worth at least 2-3 more wins.   Zach Greinke is being shopped by K.C. and I think we can put together a better package for him than the Yankees can.

Get a better 5th Starter.   This should be worth at least 2-3 more wins.

Get a Stud Closer.   The Team is ready for one.   This should be worth at least 2-3 more wins.   Might I suggest Jonathan Papelbon or Rafael Soriano, plus picking up the option(s) for Kevin Gregg.

Upgrade the Bullpen.   Almost anything could make it better.   This should be worth at least 2-3 more wins.

Upgrade the Outfield.   Finding a Centerfielder to replace and shift Vernon Wells to Left or Right Field.   This should be worth at least 2-3 more wins.   Colby Rasmus might be available.

Upgrade First Base.   Improving on Lyle Overbay and sparing us Adam Lind at first should be worth at least 2-3 more runs.   Prince Fielder might be available.

Upgrade Third Base.   This should be worth at least 2-3 more games.

The New York Yankees must go after either Cliff Lee or Zach Greinke.   The Post-Season showed that.   Texas has enough money to re-sign Cliff Lee ( $80 milion TV deal signing bonus + Post-Season revenue of $40+ million + regular revenue of $75-80+ million).   Some else (Blue Jays perhaps) will get Zach Greinke.   New York might be hard-pressed to win 95+ games next year.   The Boston Red Sox will have trouble replacing John Farrell.   Missing the Playoffs the last two years means they`ll be breaking the team down to start again (calling it Re-tooling) and will be hard-pressed to win 90+ games.   Tampa Bay can`t fill the Stadium, even this past year.   As a result, they are cutting Team Salaries to $60-ish million.   They will be very hard-pressed to win 90+ games.

I just don`t think we will have trouble contending next year, providing we fill at least two holes with the best possible people.

....I'd just prefer that any analyses that defend that optimism be born of a sound methodology....

Unfortunately, despite decades of efforts by statisticians and sabermetricians, nobody has yet found a methodology that accurately predicts the future.  To say that one method is more realistic than another method -- well, maybe, but ultimately it's all a guess.

• Shortstop (Gonzo plus Escobar vs. Escobar by himself) (21, 10) [-11]
• RF (Bautista vs. Bautista, ignoring where he actually fielded) (54, 45) [-11]
• 3B (EE this year, Hill next; showing some, but not full, recovery to meet his peak) (20, 32) [+12]
• DH (Lind vs. Lind, assuming he does not go to first base, showing some, but not full, recovery to meet his peak) (23, 28) [+5]
• LF (Snider vs. Snider; dealing with Lewis & co. further below, reflecting TS's maturation and full year hitting) (14, 35) [+21]
• CF (Wells vs. Wells, reflecting his age, assuming he will gently decline from here on) (31, 25) [-6]
• C (Buck + Molina + Arencibia vs. Arencibia + Molina) (28, 17) [-11]
• 2B (Hill this year, Kelly Johnson the next, the latter staying flat vs. this year) (27, 26) [-1]
• 1B (Overbay this year vs. Konerko next year, the latter hitting 4 fewer than this year) (20, 35) [+15]
• Other fill-in players (Lewis, Wise, McDonald, Ruiz vs. McDonald, Emaus, Mastroianni, but with many fewer at bats than this year) (18, 8) [-10]
• Total impact of the changes [+3]