Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - W's Involving 3 V's

W's Involving 3 V's - Vegas, Virginia & Vancouver

A .500 night on the farm and it would have been better had it not been for an extra-innings loss and another loss of the come from ahead variety.

Las Vegas 6 Tacoma 2

Tacoma, WA - The Jays erased a 1-0 deficit with four runs in the sixth and put up two insurance runs in the ninth.

Batting - Jason Lane (2/4) belted a two-run homer to cap off the rally in the sixth while Manny Mayorson (2/4) and David Cooper (2/4) had the other multi-hit games with Mayorson knocking home a run. Brett Lawrie (1/3) knocked home the tying run with a base knock and also collected a base on balls. That .352 batting average on the season clearly has no place in the Jays lineup! ;D Ryan Budde (1/3) also drew a walk and Chris Woodward (1/4) had a run batted in. Mike McCoy (1/5), Adam Loewen (0/3) drew a walk and scored twice but Darin Mastroianni (0/4) was kept off base.

Running - Woodward was thrown out at the plate.

Pitching - P.J. Walters made it through four innings and yielded a run on five hits and a walk. The ex-Cardinal struck out seven and three out of four outs in play stayed on the dirt. Lefty Rommie Lewis (3-3) got the victory after stranding a hit and a walk in his one inning of work. Ronald Uviedo grabbed the hold despite giving up a solo homer and a walk in his inning of work. Bobby Korecky was not messing around as he whiffed five of the nine hitters he faced to earn the three-inning save.

Defence - No clanks here.

New Hampshire 7 Richmond 6

Richmond, VA - The Fisher Cats scored six runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth to overcome a 3-1 deficit and survived a three-run uprising by the Giants affiliate in the ninth for the victory.

Batting - Travis d'Arnaud (3/5) opened the scoring for New Hampshire with a solo home run (his 15th of the year) in the second to go along with two doubles (29). Even one of his outs was productive as he reached on an error at short to bring home another run. Mark Sobolewski (3/5) was a homer short of matching d'Arnaud but he also had two doubles and drove in a run. Yan Gomes (2/3) belted a solo shot and drew a walk while Jonathan Diaz (1/4) followed Gomes' blast with his first of the campaign to make it back to back jacks in the eighth. Anthony Gose (2/5) had two doubles (16) and Adeiny Hechavarria (2/5) put the Fisher Cats ahead to stay with a two-run double (20) in the seventh. Callix Crabbe (1/4) picked up a single but Moises Sierra and Danny Perales went a combined 0-for-10.

Running - d'Arnaud stole his second base of the year but Hechavarria was caught for the 12th time against 19 steals.

Pitching - Deck McGuire met the quality start guidelines of giving up three runs over six innings to get his second AA win. He gave up two homers among his five hits but walked only one. The Jays first rounder from 2010 struck out five and induced nine groundball outs. Of his 74 pitches, 50 were strikes. Yohan Pino whiffed two of the three batters he faced in the seventh to get a hold. Rei Gonzalez was roughed up for three runs on three hits and a walk over one inning while striking out one. Gonzalez pitched three batters into the ninth inning and was relieved by lefty Clint Everts. He gave up a hit in the ninth and allowed a Gonzalez runner to score but he punched out a batter to earn his ninth save of the year.

Defence - No errors and the infield turned three double plays.

South Bend 6 Lansing 3

Lansing, MI - The Lugnuts let a 3-1 lead slip away as the Diamondbacks affiliate scored once in the seventh and four in the eighth for the come from behind win.

Batting - Toronto's Marcus Knecht (3/4) hit his 26th double of the season, had an RBI single and scored two runs. Markus Brisker (2/4) had the other multi-hit night with a double. Oliver Dominguez (0/0) got as much mileage as one can without getting an official plate appearance thanks to three walks and a sacrifice fly RBI. Jack Murphy (1/4) brought home a run but does not get an RBI because he hit into a double play (stupid rule, by the way!). K.C. Hobson (1/4) singled and Michael Crouse (0/3) walked but struck out three times. The Lugnuts hit into three double plays.

Running - Crouse stole second to push his season total to 36. However, Dominguez and Brisker were thrown out at third from right field.

Pitching - Lefty Egan Smith limited South Bend to two runs on five hits over seven innings. He gave up a home run but struck out three and did not walk a batter. Of his 16 outs in play, nine were on the ground. Brandon Berl got the double whammy of a blown save and a loss as he was whacked for four runs (three earned) on four hits over two innings. He gave up a two-run homer but struck out a pair and did not walk anyone.

Defence - Berl threw one away from the mound.

Vancouver 3 Spokane 1

Vancouver, BC - The Canadians 1-0 lead in the second inning held up until the eighth but they responded with two runs in their half of the eighth to beat the Rangers affiliate.

Batting - Stephen McQuail (1/3) was the lone Canadian to reach twice as he drew a walk and singled home the game's first run. Nicholas Baligod (1/3) doubled and came home on McQuail's base knock. Garrett Maines (1/3) had the big base hit with a two-run single to cash in McQuail and Randy Schwartz (0/2), who got aboard on a walk. Shane Opitz (1/4) accounted for the Canadians other ht.

Running - Jonathan Jones stole second base but Jonathon Berti did not.

Pitching - Hey Nicolino - CLAP! Lefty Justin Nicolino spun five scoreless frames and allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out five. His groundout/airout total was 8-1. Travis Garrett got a hold by surviving a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless inning. Philip Brua could not hold the lead as he allowed an unearned run on two hits over two innings. He did strike out two batters and picked up the victory himself to improve to 4-0. Drew Permison worked a one-hit ninth to lock down the save, his ninth of the campaign.

Defence - Opitz made a throwing error at short trying to complete a 3-6-3 double play that led to Spokane's tying run but he did take part in two double plays, 6-3 and 4-6-3.

GCL Braves 6 GCL Blue Jays 0

Kissimmee, FL - This game was scoreless until the bottom of the sixth when the Braves scored twice and tacked on four more in the seventh.

Batting - Nico Taylor (1/2) got on base twice with a walk and Chris Peters (1/2) had a walk. Eric Arce was the other Jay to get aboard with a walk.

Running - Arce was caught trying to pilfer second.

Pitching - Lefty Griffin Murphy's pitching line is brought to you by the number four. He lasted 4 1/3/ innings and gave up four hits and four walks but he struck out four. Even with two wild pitches into the mix, he held the Braves off the board with help from Alex Ramirez. Ramirez stranded both of Murphy's runners and pitched a hitless inning. However, he took the loss by issuing two walks and hitting a batter. Chris Roman could not hold down the fort as he allowed two of Ramirez's three runners to score and was whacked for four runs of his own on four hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings. Lefty Jose Vargas pitched a clean inning of relief.

Defence - More errors than hits for the Jays in this one. Justin Atkinson chucked one away from third and Christian Frias threw one away while dropping another. Dalton Pompey pegged a runner at third from center field.

DSL Cubs2 5 DSL Blue Jays 4 (11 Innings)

San Pedro de Macoris, DR - The Jays tied the game in the ninth only to see the Cubs pull it out in extras.

Batting - Angel Feliz (1/4) was the reason the game went into overtime thanks to his home run in the bottom of the ninth. He also drew a walk. Ricardo Guillen (1/5) had a two-run single, Maydawin De La Cruz (2/5) drove in a run and Emilio Guerrero (2/5) had the other multi-hit effort. Mauricio Nagahashi (1/4) reached twice with a walk and Jonathan Pumarol (0/3) did the same with two bases on balls. Tonguar Perez (1/5) had a double and Nelson Aguida (1/3) singled.

Running - Nagahashi stole second, Guillen was nailed at third and Feliz was picked off at first.

Pitching - Gilberto Vielma surrendered an unearned run on one hit and three walks over three innings. He struck out two and got six outs on the dirt. Juan Cabrera allowed just one hit and struck out three in two shutout innings. Steven Romero was charged with the blown save could not get an out as he yielded two runs on two hits and a walk while throwing a wild pitch. Lefty Ericdavis Marquez allowed one of Romero's two runners to score and gave up a run of his own to go along with two wild pitches. However, he lasted three innings in which he gave up a hit and a walk to go along with four Ks. Like Marquez, Luis Zerpa allowed went three innings and struck out four but he gave up the winning run on three hits to take the loss.

Defence - The corner men, Guerrero and Perez, each booted one.

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Deck McGuire, New Hampshire

2. Justin Nicolino, Vancouver

1. Travis d'Arnaud, New Hampshire

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 12:32 PM EDT.

W's Involving 3 V's - Vegas, Virginia & Vancouver | 66 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Sano - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#240010) #

So is Loewen this year's version of Brian Dopirak? Pretty good at AAA but seemingly never in line to get a shot in the majors?

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#240012) #

d'Arnaud's slash line is up to .326/.395/.562. He's 22 in double A. Arencibia came through New Hampshire at age 22 and hit .282/.302/.496. Each player can really hit when healthy, with d'Arnaud possessing an important and large advantage in plate control.

dan gordon - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#240015) #

Loewen's mle for his season so far is .249/.306/.413, with 11HR's in just over 400 AB's. Not too inspiring, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a September callup, to let the Jays have a look at him. Don't forget that JP hit .301 at Vegas last year and look at his average in Toronto. Batting averages in Vegas are very misleading, although power numbers are fairly legit.

D'Arnaud has really had quite an impressive season. Very promising prospect.

pooks137 - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#240018) #

So is Loewen this year's version of Brian Dopirak? Pretty good at AAA but seemingly never in line to get a shot in the majors?

I hope Loewen isn't comparable to Brian Dopirak. Dopirak was great at A+ and AA, but was awful for Las Vegas and then Round Rock at AAA.

Dopirak never put the AAA numbers up that would have forced a call-up IMO. We mighy have seen Loewen already this year if it hadn't been for the complicating factor of him being out of options.

jerjapan - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#240019) #

Not to mention his superior defensive reputation. His back woes seem to be behind him ... ETA for D'Arnaud in TO September 2012?

92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#240024) #

If d'Arnaud was doing what he's doing for BOS or NYY he'd be considered the best C prospect in baseball.

hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#240025) #

To me, Loewen seems to have Corey Patterson skills. Can play all 3 outfield positions, just not well. Has a bit of pop, a bit of speed and weak plate discipline. Loewen does have a better arm and probably fewer mental crash-and-burns. But hey, Coreys "skills" keep getting him MLB jobs.

ramone - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#240027) #

"If d'Arnaud was doing what he's doing for BOS or NYY he'd be considered the best C prospect in baseball."

Well Jim Callis thinks he's close to the best as of today in his chat at BA:

"Geoff (Toronto): Is Travis d'Arnaud the best catching prospect in the minors? After last night's game, he's up to 326/395/562 at AA New Hampshire and his defensive skills seem to rate highly as well.

Jim Callis: I'd give Mesoraco a slight edge, with d'Arnaud at No. 2. That means, of course, that I don't see Montero as a long-term catcher."

92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#240028) #

Thanks for that ramone. I was under the impression that most scouts didn't like Mesoraco's work behind the plate either, which is why I would value d'Arnaud slightly higher. After all, most of a C prospect's value comes from his ability to catch and throw - plenty of kids can hit.

Spifficus - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#240029) #

I thought the Mesoraco issues defensively were related to early career conditioning, and then fatigue in the AFL last year. After that, I've been hearing 'solid' and 'above average' bandied about by the prospect gurus.

Hodgie - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#240030) #

I thought it was interesting that Farrell mentioned Henderson Alvarez when talking about late season call ups. I would assume this is something that has been discussed internally and that he isn't just pulling his name out of thin air. Considering his ground ball tendencies I am guessing the rationale is that a better evaluation of his readiness for next season will be had in Toronto against potential AAAA lineups rather than AAA teams on the baked Las Vegas infield.

Combined with the additional comments about Litsch's evaluation in the bullpen for the remainder of the season, Lawrie's impending promotion and of course the Rasmus heist lead me to believe that the Jays brass now believe their timetable for contention starts next season. Or I could just be reading what I want to see.

Sano - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#240033) #

I've got to believe that they leave Alvarez in AA for the rest of this year. Considering Sal Fasano's comments on his development it seems that he's got a fair bit of work to be consistent enough to be in the big leagues.

Re: Loewen-Dopirak comparision. Looking at his stats again, I see that I might have been selectively remembering. Although he did have a good year at AAA with Vegas in 2009, he didn't really force the Jays' hand. I still wonder what the Jays are going to do with Loewen though. Knowing AA's penchant for being smart, I can't imagine they let him walk away after investing two years of development in him.

Has there already been a conversation about what happens when d'Arnaud reaches the majors? I'm thinking that he pushes JPA somewhere- either trade or another position. Problem is that JP could only conceivably DH, which is going to be a problem if Thames is the full time DH. Or is this one of those "it'll solve itself" problems?

hypobole - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#240034) #

and then fatigue in the AFL last year.

KLaw had some negative comments about Mesoraco's D in the AFL last year, but later found out Devin had been playing with an injured thumb. Any reports I've read this year have been nothing but positive.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#240035) #

Or, alternatively: Keep Arencibia and move d'Arnaud as part of a blockbuster trade. The Jays have a lot of pieces to sort out this offseason, so there's bound to be some action. d'Arnaud probably has a lot of trade value right now, and the Jays might be satisfied with Arencibia in the near-term and Jimenez/Perez long-term.

Conservatively, I'd guess d'Arnaud gets at least half a season in AAA, following in Lawrie's footsteps. Then he could graduate to the majors, either as a starter/backup role, depending on how Arencibia looks.

DaveB - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#240036) #

Or is this one of those "it'll solve itself" problems.

Not only will it solve itself, it's not even a problem.

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#240038) #

Eric Arce is an interesting prospect to watch - seems he's built like Matt Stairs (5'9",204lb) - late rd pick in 2011(also 2010),had some off the field problems - already has 10HR in the GCL with a decent batting eye and not yet 20. I wonder if he has any defensive game?

Also, very encouraged by the performance of the 2010 Prep. arms

Matthew E - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#240040) #

Yeah, what's the worst thing that could happen: d'Arnaud and Arencibia end up sharing the position? I'd take that. I like it, actually.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#240043) #

Please don't say "what's the worst that could happen" when talking about catchers. It involves far more Jose Molina than medically recommended, or perhaps a return engagement by Rod Barajas.

Sano - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#240046) #

I don't think JPA would be cool with sharing that much playing time with d'Arnaud. Just my gut impression.

Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#240047) #

After watching Rasmus over the weekend, I have to say Rasmus reminds me of Willie McGee(without as much speed). Expressionless, effortless.

I can see why people are put off by him, but if they actually timed him, they would realize he is fast and tools

Matthew E - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#240048) #

Please don't say "what's the worst that could happen" when talking about catchers.

Good point, yes. I meant, what's the worst possible consequence of having both Arencibia and d'Arnaud around.

(And if they don't like sharing playing time with each other, they can find a new line of work. I mean, come on.)

gabrielthursday - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#240050) #

I was at the Vancouver game last night, so I'll throw in my observations. Judging by the stadium gun, Nicolino's fastball sat around 90, with him getting it up to 92 occasionally and once touched 93. He seemed to be working on his curveball quite a bit, throwing it as often as his change. The one "hit" that was given to him was a two-hopper to third that Balbino Fuenmayor played off to the side and completely whiffed on - perhaps a bad hop, but still should have been an out.

Perhaps of interest, Brua throws sidearm at around 80, while Permison hit 92 a few times.

Gerry - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#240051) #

Thanks gabriel. Noah Syndergaard gets his first start for Vancouver tonight.

Hodgie - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#240052) #

I've got to believe that they leave Alvarez in AA for the rest of this year.

That is possible but the fact that they are even discussing it seems to portend greater things. This was Farrell as quoted by the Toronto Star here:

"Farrell mentioned others, including right-hander Henderson Alvarez and lefty Brad Mills, currently the No. 5 starter, as potential starters in the final month. �We may find that it�s before September as well,� Farrell explained. �A guy like Alvarez, we want to take a look at at some point this season."

85bluejay - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#240054) #

Sano - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#240056) #

Interesting. I would have thought that the Drabek experience (rushing a guy to the majors when he hadn't really worked out some kinks in his game) would temper the enthusiasm to get Alvarez up to Toronto.

bpoz - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#240058) #

I hope Alvarez gets at least 3 starts with Toronto, one of which is against NYY or Boston.
This way Drabek & Alvarez both know that a rotation spot has to be earned coming out of ST. Drabek lost his "got to the ML first" SP claim so now he has to earn it.

I hope the FO decides to try to compete for a playoff spot in 2012. I see a lot of players competing for their 2012 positions in the last 2 months of this season. I don't want any "he has no options left so he has to make the team" stuff.

LouisvilleJayFan - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#240063) #

How about Eric Arce coming on as of late!

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#240064) #

A bit off-topic, but a fun question nonetheless: what sort of package would it take for AA to acquire King Felix? You would have to think the Jays would vault into contender status with their current lineup (+ Lawrie) and a rotation fronted by Hernandez (under contract through 2014), Romero and Morrow.

Assuming that a deal could be negotiated that doesn't involve Lawrie, my guess would be something like: d'Arnaud, Gose, Alvarez (or maybe Hutchison) and Molina. I don't know - even that might not get it done.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#240065) #

(In an off-season trade, obviously.)

Alex Obal - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#240067) #

I wonder how much value they'd place on Adam Lind. Or EE, for that matter. Always nice to get your hands on proven big leaguers, right?

Also wonder how much money C.J. Wilson is going to command as a free agent this winter.

Sano - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#240068) #

It would depend on the Mariners depth at hitting/pitching. I just took a look at their top 10 prospects and I think they'd want more pitching than hitting (that's just on the basis that there were more batters than pitchers in their top 10).

Compare it to the Halladay trade- we got 1 top hitting prospect, 1 top pitching prospect and 1 above average hitting prospect (Wallace). That's with Halladay being older and not under a long term contract at the time.

Felix is younger and under a long and affordable contract. I think you use the Halladay trade as a blueprint and add one of our top hitting/pitching prospects (whichever the Mariners prefer). So either d'Arnaud + Gose + Alvarez + Marisnick (or someone of his ilk) or substitute a top arm for Gose. That might even be low-balling it.

Jonny German - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#240069) #

$59M over the next 3 years to be precise. It's fun to dream but I can't see why the Mariners would deal him.

jgadfly - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#240070) #

So how much would Yu Darvish cost over 5 years ?

Magpie - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#240071) #

I can't see why the Mariners would deal him.

Well, I think they're pretty dumb. So there's that!

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#240072) #

I agree - the M's trading Hernandez seems unlikely, in part because (at 25) he's their franchise player and the reigning Cy Young winner. It would be like the Jays trading Bautista. It would be risky, and many fans would be unhappy.

However, you could make the case that the M's aren't likely to be competitive in the short term anyway. Trading their ace for a prospect bonanza could pay off in a few years, the way that the Teixeira and Greinke trades boosted the Texas and KC systems. The Mariners would be justified in asking for even more than those teams received.

TamRa - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#240073) #

If McGowan comes up in Sept. he's also likely to start - perhaps the Jays may go to a 6 man rotation to limit the innings of some starters - Morrow,vily etc. - I was hoping they could move Vily at the deadline.

My guess is that CV will be pulled from the rotation on September 1 if not before. If you assume both Drabek and McGowan return and get starts, and remember his IP concern, I can't see how it would be otherwise.

In fact, given that he's now allowed 20 ER in his last 19.1 IP, perhaps the timer is already running out. We'll find out soon whether or not they are really committed to this "We want to see Listch in relief" theme or not.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#240074) #

Or AA could invite A-Rod and Jack Z over for a friendly poker game this summer, after which the participants would take home the following loot:

- AA: King Felix, some fancy Yankees memorabilia and Madonna tickets
- Jack Z: Mark Teahen, Aaron Hill and a Honda Civic
- A-Rod: signed Bautista jersey and box of Beeston's favourite cigars

92-93 - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#240079) #

Repeating what I said after the last Villanueva start in response to the thread's question about his future :

"I'm not sure how I feel about the prospects of Villanueva being in the rotation in August, let alone 2012. It's a smoke and mirrors act that can't hold up longterm in an AL East rotation. He pitched very poorly Thursday night, results notwithstanding, and you can be sure AA is working the phones seeing if he can cash in on the first half of this season. Great arm to pickup on the cheap, but for a contending team Villanueva is a nice bullpen piece, not a #4 starter."

I didn't think his crash would be this drastic, but it's time to see what Litsch can do in the rotation. CV has no future there.

China fan - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#240080) #

Gloating is poor form.

Alex Obal - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#240081) #

Villanueva hung everything tonight. He looks tired in every way.

92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 01:52 AM EDT (#240082) #

Noah Syndergaard with the 5ip 4h 1r 0er 1bb 6k debut for Vancouver. The 18 year old "reach" in the 2010 draft is off to a great statistical start to his career. With a fastball that's already hitting the mid 90s, a developing curveball, and a big, 6"5 200+ frame there's plenty of projection left too.

TamRa - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:00 AM EDT (#240083) #

It's a smoke and mirrors act that can't hold up longterm in an AL East rotation.

I don't think it's necessarily true that it was "smoke and mirrors" and the league would eventually catch up with him. There's every reason to conclude that it's simply the workload that's caught up with him and i doubt you will find anyone here who wouldn't have agreed a month ago that sooner or later it would.

not to say it's impossible that it was smoke and mirrors, but the recent regression is not PROOF that it was given the potential that it's fatigue related.

the tricky thing is they've gone out on a limb and suggested they want to see Litsch pitch in relief (and that might be because they know they have other guys they want to look at in September and they don't want to have to take Litsch BACK out of the rotation if he pitches well over the next month.

If they stick to that then - even if they skip him next time since his turn falls on an off day (surely they will?) - then his turn will still come up at least three more times in August.

McGowan can be matched up so he would fall in line for that third start (and have logged 3 starts in NH) if they want to call him before the end of the month - but Drabek is floundering and i'm no longer confident he'll get starts even in September.

So unless they want to play out that Alvarez remark, or reverse course on Litsch, they may have to eat three more CV starts whether it's optimal or not.

92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:30 AM EDT (#240085) #

If it's fatigue related, isn't the same problem going to arise next year 20 starts or so into the season? I guess you could say that if he knows he's going to be a starter heading into the season he can prepare better for it (which is supposedly a part of the CJ Wilson successful transition). However, my thinking that Villanueva isn't a long-term solution in the rotation is because of his arsenal, not his recent regression. For me he's the classic definition of a guy you don't want batters getting second and third looks at.

Drabek threw 162 innings last year over 27 starts and sits at 110 innings this year in 22 starts. The 51s season ends on September 5th and they aren't going to make the playoffs, so to stretch him out he needs to continue making starts in the major leagues or else be sent to the AFL in October.

On the Arencibia/d'Arnaud topic : d'Arnaud played only 77g last year in Dunedin and posted a meager .726 OPS, inferior to the season AJ Jimenez is having this year at the same age and same level. Sure, he had some great stretches, but he was also riddled with injuries and has yet to prove he can excel as a hitter over the course of a long, 100+ game season. Let's all relax and let him finish out 2011 in AA with all of next year in AAA before considering what to do - that would give Arencibia 8 full months to establish himself in the majors and for the club to evaluate if he can be a starting C going forward or if he's most valuable as a platoon C/DH/1B in the Mike Napoli mold. It's quite likely that d'Arnaud is going to be posting an OPS north of 1.000 in Vegas next year and have everybody clamoring for his call-up but there's really no sense in rushing him when you have a perfectly capable, pre-arb player at the MLB level.

Kelekin - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:32 AM EDT (#240086) #

Villanueva is a solid reliever. He has a career 1.2 WHIP as a reliever and 1.4 as a starter, before tonight - and his K/9 is a huge drop-off from 9.1 to 5.7.

I like him as a reliever, always have, but never as a starter. He did a good job filling a roll for us this year but it was, and should be treated as, a short-term solution.

Kelekin - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:34 AM EDT (#240087) #

Also, MLEs shouldn't be used to gauge whether or not a player is ready for the majors. They are fun, but they aren't even remotely based in fact. There are way too many intangibles when it comes to being successful in the majors versus the minors.

Alex Obal - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 03:06 AM EDT (#240089) #

When they started the Villanueva experiment, I figured he'd have trouble going deep into games because what seems to make him effective out of the pen is the fact he throws so much trash. Breaking balls hurt. He's thrown more fastballs as a starter, for whatever that's worth, but he still seems to have hit the wall. Or maybe he's throwing more fastballs because he hit the wall. Either way, I think it's pretty clear he needs a breather.

I will always stick up for soft-tossing righties, and Villanueva's early success suggests to me that he could be a killer swingman, but the recent results speak for themselves, and he likely shouldn't be plan A as next year's #4 starter. He's not much without his command, and it's eroded over the past two months.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#240092) #

I agree that it looks like he hit the wall.

Farrell has said that the club is going to cap Morrow's innings at 175, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Litsch, McGowan, Mills and two or three others to get some work in September.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#240093) #

Drew Hutchison pitched a beauty for the D-Jays last night, but late-inning bullpen implosion denied him the W. The only question now is whether they give him a taste of double A in 2011 or wait for 2012.

greenfrog - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#240094) #

I see that Hutchison pitched only 68.2 innings last year. He's currently up to 117.1 IP in 2011. Does he get shut down sometime soon?

Hodgie - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#240095) #

Something that really struck me recently was just how young many of the Jays most interesting prospects are for their respective leagues. Lawrie*, Alvarez, Gose*, Hutchison, Syndergaard, Sanchez, Cardona* are all close to or in fact the youngest players/pitchers in their leagues. There are of course many more that are also considered either young or appropriately aged for their league. Few and far between are the prospects that invoke the "They may be old for their league BUT.." refrain.

sam - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#240096) #

Hutchison started last year at Auburn and likely pitched in extended spring training. I'd imagine that he pitched more than 68.2 innings.

hypobole - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#240097) #

Hutchisons official stats would have started with the Doubledays season opening in mid-June last year, but he would have thrown plenty of innings at the minor league complex between spring training and the start of the short season league.

Hodgie - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#240099) #

Speaking of very young Jays's prospects, the Toronto Sun has an article on Cardona here while Baseball Prospectus had this to say about Roberto Osuna, whom the Jays are reportedly signing. Mix in the high school class from this past draft and the system just continues to get younger. If the soul is born old and grows young, this current crop of Baby Jays has me feeling very young indeed.

China fan - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#240101) #

The Jays are sending Villanueva to get an MRI today to see if there's any physical reason for his decline. Farrell is openly saying that Villanueva is suffering from fatigue, but there might be more to it than that.

The good news is that Alvarez may be promoted to replace him. Farrell says the Jays are considering Alvarez or Luis Perez for Villanueva's place in the rotation (following an off day for his next scheduled start).

uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#240107) #

I would love to see Alvarez. He may be the best pitching prospect we've had in a long while.

In fact, I'm not sure if I can recall the last time the jays had a 21 year old pitcher dominating AA like this.

uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#240108) #

Age 21

R.Halladay (AAA): 21gms, 21gs, 116.1ip, 5.5k/9, 1.3k/bb, 1.38whip, 3.79era
H.Alvarez (AA): 14gms, 13gs, 83.0ip, 6.6k/9, 3.8k/bb, 1.08whip, 2.82era
B.Cecil (AA): 18gms, 18gs, 77.2ip, 10.1k/9, 3.8k/bb, 1.15whip, 2.55era
K.Drabek (AA): 15gms, 14gs, 96.1ip, 7.1k/9, 2.5k/bb, 1.28whip, 3.64era
K.Escobar (AA): 5gms, 5gs, 24.1ip, 11.5k/9, 1.9k/bb, 1.48whip, 3.70era
C.Carpenter (AA): 28gms, 28gs, 171.1ip, 7.9k/9, 1.7k/bb, 1.47whip, 3.94era
B.League (AA): 41gms, 10gs, 104.0ip, 7.8k/9, 2.2k/bb, 1.28whip, 3.38era
R.Romero (AA): 12gms, 12gs, 67.1ip, 5.5k/9, 1.6k/bb, 1.35whip, 5.08era

Sano - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#240109) #

If the choice is either Luis Perez or Alvarez, then I'd choose the latter. But I just don't know if Perez is the only other option.

TamRa - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#240111) #

Farrell has said that the club is going to cap Morrow's innings at 175, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Litsch, McGowan, Mills and two or three others to get some work in September.

If Morrow continues to take his regular turn until the end of the season that's 11 starts. He's averaging 5.89 IP per start so far this year so that works out to almost 65 IP for a total of 177 in all. I don't see him shutting down early.

TamRa - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#240112) #

If it's fatigue related, isn't the same problem going to arise next year 20 starts or so into the season?

I think things would have to be going VERY wrong for CV to get 20 starts in Toronto next year. or any year. there's no way they see him as anything other than what he was this year - an emergency fill in (in terms of the rotation)

85bluejay - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#240116) #

given that Jesse Litsch was not mentioned as a possible candidate for Vily's start ,seeming to grumble about regulation to the BP (doesn't know how he's going to use all of his pitches in the BP) & the organisation longtime beef with him regarding his pitch selection & fitness, it's looking like sayanora to Jesse this winter, which is probably best for both sides.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#240120) #

A bit off-topic, but a fun question nonetheless: what sort of package would it take for AA to acquire King Felix?

My Package:

Mlb Trade Rumours, during the feeding freezy of July Trading Deadline, suggested Seattle might be open to trading Felix now. (But I don't have a clue where in the last 10 days of July it occurred.)

Kyle Drabek or our # 2 and # 3 Pitching prospects must be part of the package.

Travis Snider or Eric Thames or our top OF prospect not named Gose must be included in the package.

Adeiny Hechavarria must also be included.

Our top Catching prospect not named d'Arnaud must be included in the deal.

Plus 2 or 3 more prospects not on our top 100 list should be included.

I can hear the screams of protest from the unbelievers right now. If Seattle is even faintly thinking of the possibility of trading King Felix we must have the best offer. We cannot let New York or Boston acquire him. Nothing less than this package is good enough.

James W - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#240122) #

During the trade deadline, Jack Zduriencik reiterated he will not trade Hernandez:

"But I've said the same thing I've said all along. You've got a No. 1 commodity, and that's the toughest thing in the game to find. We've got a guy who wants to be here in our city, he's our franchise player and we'll continue to keep him here and enjoy what he does for us."

Save your typing, Seattle's not trading Felix Hernandez.

85bluejay - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#240127) #

not only is felix not available but it's not AA's MO, he's a buy low guy looking for players currently out of favor/poor season with team - that's not felix.

greenfrog - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#240177) #

Hernandez is no doubt close to being untouchable but it's certainly worth seeing what his price might be (or in Jack Z's case, seeing what he might fetch in return). For example, I doubt Z would turn down an offer of Lawrie, d'Arnaud, McGuire, Alvarez, Hutchison, Gose and Marisnick. That would be insane on AA's part, of course.

If any team can provide a sufficient package to pry away the King, it's Toronto. Whether it would be worth it is another story.

greenfrog - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#240178) #

Richard: I think you have to acknowledge that while Drabek, Snider and Hechavarria are still prospects, their stock has likely dropped considerably. Teams would certainly be happy to take them off the Jays' hands, but they aren't going to form the centrepiece of a trade for a #1 starter any time soon.

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