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As you've hopefully noticed we've started running our 2012 previews - the other divisions last week, the AL East this week, with the Jays to follow next week. I used this as an opportunity to look back at some of the predictions we made at the start of the 2011 season, and thought that this would be a good opportunity for self mockery. We here at the Box are nothing if not humble.



You can find our predictions here, here and here.

On Jose Bautista

"I think Bautista will be just fine. He might hit 37 home runs instead of 54, but I suspect that overall, his average rises a bit, his slugging falls, and he is 5-10% worse overall with the bat." - Anders

"I am with Anders on this one." - Gerry

"He wonít even come close to coming close...I predict he wonít clear 30 home runs." - Matthew E.

"Iím betting on 40 HR - but I am a known optimist. †I also suspect his average will climb a bit." John Northey

"He may not be as locked in as he was in 2010, but Iíll still pencil him in for at least 40 homers, assuming good health." - Alex Obal

Bautista hit .302/.447/.608, leading the Majors with 43 home runs, after posting a .260/.378/.617 line with 54 home runs the year before.

On JPA

"Expect a slow start with a few bombs with better performance as the year goes along but as of today I would take a .230 ba with 20 home runs, assuming average defense." - Gerry

"He is as ready as heíll ever be... I expect a solid year with around 20 HR and a 250 average." - John Northey

"
I think JPAís ready and will not be a disaster, his 2010 cup of coffee notwithstanding." - Dave Rutt

Arencibia hit .219 with 23 home runs.

Will Rajai Davis steal more than 47.5 bases?

Yes: Anders, Dave, John
No: Alex, Gerry (35 steals), Matthew

Davis stole 34 bases in 338 PA

How many runs will the Jays score (755 in 2010)?

730 (Mike Green), 740 (Matthew, Gerry), 755 (Anders), 756 (Dave), 800 (John), 830 (bpoz), 870 (earlweaverfan).

The Jays scored 743 runs, though scoring decreased significantly across baseball, even after a very low scoring 2010.

On Brandon Morrow

"Iím optimistic about Morrow. I think heís for real. He might even get better." - Matthew E

"If he stays healthy, he could be Mark Prior. And if he gets hurt, well..." - Alex Obal

"I will pile onto the bus, good Morrow will show up guided by Jose Molina."
- Gerry

"I'm expecting a guy with around 175 IP and a 100-110 ERA+ plus 170-180 K's" - John Northey

"The success of multiple of my fantasy teams depends, at least in part, on Brandon Morrowís second-half emergence. Iím a believer." - Thomas

"Fun to watch at times, frustrating others, 95 ERA+" - John Northey

"I am insanely optimistic about Morrow. I guarantee heís for real. He will get much, much better." - Magpie

Iím bullish on Morrow† - he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and if he can keep his walks down, watch out." - Anders

"He'll walk more and strike out fewer" - Craig B

"Matt Cain-ish, if you will" - mathesond

Morrow posted a 4.72 ERA (3.64 FIP), both significant declines from his 2010 - 4.49 (3.16) - though he did throw more 33 more innings and decrease his walk and strikeout rates.


On Kyle Drabek

"I think he will have his ups and downs... I think he might start strong but then be forced into some adjustments during the season." - Gerry

"Iím optimistic about DrabekÖ in the long run. In the short run he might not look so impressive, and may very well be sent down to Vegas for seasoning." - Matthew E

"I have no idea." - Alex

"Great rookie. In that he makes it through the year intact." - Anders

"I think heíll be good this year, probably based on completely misguided ideas." - Dave

"Drabek will have good and bad moments. Thereíll be nights when everything of his is working and he looks like quite good and heíll mix in starts where he struggles to throw pitches for strikes and last 5 innings." - Thomas

"Adequate, but not overwelming.† 4 era, decent SO" - Lylemcr

"A couple of rough patches will have him with 9 wins and an ERA around 4.50, WHIP in the 1.30s. 6.5 K/9? Sure, why not?" - mathesond

I don't really need to post his numbers, do I?

How many runs will the Jays allow in 2011 (728 in 2010)?

700 (John Northey), 715 (earlweaverfan), ~728 (Lylemcr), 728 + a bit (Dave, Alex), 735 (bpoz),† 740 (Anders), 743 (Matthew), 747 (Thomas), 750 (Gerry), 750ish (mathesond), 770 (Craig B), 775 (Mike Green), 789 (Magpie)

Scoring was down significantly, but the Jays still managed to allow 762 runs.

Surprises and Disappointments

"If Yunel Escobar doesnít add some power he could be disappointing... JP Arencibia could disappoint in the first half of the season as he gets used to playing at the major league level... †I believe Travis Snider will do well, that might not be a surprise." - Gerry

"This has to be Sniderís year, and I expect Rzepczynski to establish himself as well... I could also see Encarnacion taking a big step forward with the bat." - Alex

"Iím going to guess that Cecil will have a really rough year, and that Morrow and Snider will take big steps forward." - Matthew E

'
I could see Davis being better than people expect. In fact, with good defense, he could out-WAR Vernon in 2011." - Dave Rutt

"I think Ricky Romero has a nice year and pitches strong throughout... Travis Snider would be my pick for breakout hitter, while Iím worried about Cecilís velocity drop and Drabek struggling heavily... I donít think Morrow counts as a breakout player, but if he does, then I choose him. I expect Cy Young votes if he pitches enough innings." - Anders

"Encarnacion is my bet for the surprise of the year. †As I said above, 30 HR and a 120 OPS+" - John Northey

Should the Jays try to lock anyone up longterm?

"I lock up Morrow if I can, and wait and see with Cecil and Snider." - Anders

"Probably nothing till mid-season, then signing whoever is off to a solid start among Cecil, Snider, and Morrow." - John Northey

"Iím a proponent of waiting almost as long as possible before locking up young players. Iíd rather have to pay extra later than commit myself to mediocrity now." - Matthew E

"
I wouldnít until after the season." - Gerry

Morrow signed an extension in the off-season.

How many games do the Jays win?

80 (Gerry), 81 (Matthew E), 82 (Anders), 86 (Mick Doherty) 93 (John)

The Jays went 81-81.


Well, if there's one takeaway from all this it would have to be - Gerry, do you have any stock tips?
Reviewing Some 2011 Predictions | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Matthew E - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#253287) #
They most certainly did not go 80-82!
Gerry - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#253290) #

Gerry, do you have any stock tips?

Don't buy.

Sell Gerry high, it's only down from here.

Anders - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#253300) #
They most certainly did not go 80-82!

Just another example of why you shouldn't trust us, wow, I did that on memory.

robertdudek - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#253315) #
Jays vs Yanks on MLB,com/YES broadcast.
sam - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#253316) #
Drabek looks very good. Why he stopped throwing his curveball is beyond me.
92-93 - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#253317) #
That 2nd curve to Martin that was called a ball after the high strike was filthy.
robertdudek - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#253318) #
Brett Lawrie is un-freaking-believable.
Gerry - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#253319) #
Drabek is looking better than last year. Fastball command is OK, the Yanks have helped him out by swinging at some high pitches tonight. On the other hand some good looking pitches were called balls. The curveball is back after being absent most of last season.

I wouldn't say this start makes him a lock to make the rotation but he doesn't appear awful either.
Matthew E - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#253322) #
Looking back at those predictions, I have to say I'm shocked that I was as close to right as I was on so many of those things.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#253324) #

Matthew E

Did you hurt your arm?

Matthew E - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#253326) #
No, no; you don't understand. I basically never get stuff like that right. Something weird must have happened last year, because those results are not normal for me. I assure you it wasn't due to any kind of insight or good sense on my part.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#253327) #
So about those lottery tickets.
John Northey - Tuesday, March 27 2012 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#253331) #
Yeah, I'm an optimist. Gotta be if you want to enjoy the Jays I think :)

I was dead on with Bautista saying his average would climb and 40+ HR - OK, as close as anyone.

JPA - 20+ HR was right, but my 250 average guess was a bit high.

Rajai Davis didn't play everyday all year so that'll be my excuse :)

Morrow - I bet on 175 IP and he did 179 but his ERA+ was just 90 but his FIP would've been just over 120 so his ability was there.

Encarnacion - a 110 OPS+ vs my bet of 120, 17 HR was a bit lower than the 30 I was hoping for but I knew I was way out on a limb with him.

Runs for/against? Errr... like I said, I looked for the best case :)
bpoz - Wednesday, March 28 2012 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#253337) #
Making predictions is fun...BUT.

When I predicted M Sierra & Robert Bell as having the biggest up movement in the prospect prediction for 2010, I wrecked their seasons. Robert Bell quit baseball after 2010 and Sierra was injured all year. Other player predictions also went sort of bad.

I am trying to only do non Jay predictions. OK just 1 prediction. AA will not make any trades during the season!!!
CeeBee - Wednesday, March 28 2012 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#253339) #
bpoz... I know what you're trying to do and it will probably work. :)
92-93 - Wednesday, March 28 2012 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#253345) #
"Brett Lawrie is un-freaking-believable."

I take it you watched those ABs vs. Sabathia, robertdudek. So impressive seeing him go with the pitches on the outer half and driving them deep to the opposite field against a stud lefty like CC. I understand Farrell's hesitation to bat Lawrie 4th initially, but I hope it won't take too long to make the adjustments if Brett is the hitter we all think he can be this year.
John Northey - Wednesday, March 28 2012 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#253347) #
Eh, lineup position is secondary. Extreme mistakes, like putting a low OBP guy in the #1/2 slot or your best hitter in the 8/9 can cost but generally the difference is minimal.

IE: Lawrie as #4 vs #6 or 7 won't change as much as playing, say, Davis in LF over Thames or Mathis over JPA.

A lineup of Johnson/Escobar/Bautista/Lind/Encarnacion/Thames/Lawrie/Arencibia/Rasmus is far from the worst thing. Lind will move quickly down the order if he slumps I suspect, at which point I suspect Encarnacion goes to the 4 hole followed by Thames then Lawrie then Lind. Rasmus could climb up the order very quickly too if he hits like he did in 2010.

In truth, looking at that line up I don't see who are your usual light hitting 8/9 guys. JPA has a poor OBP, but the rest, should be good.
Jonny German - Wednesday, March 28 2012 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#253362) #
Will anybody be reporting the results of the home run predictions? I'd offer to do it but... well, I already checked the numbers and I smoked y'all. So it would be in bad form for me to do it.

That thread is here:
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=2011031616314377&
Reviewing Some 2011 Predictions | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.