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You know it's coming.

And it's not going to be pretty.


Before I vent my own spleen on this year's team - something which may take some time, in the same way that sacking a city takes some time - I thought I would first solicit the views of the readership on the exploits of the 2012 Jays. Will this be helpful to me? Possibly, but that's hardly the point. Will it be entertaining? There's a better chance that could happen. Will it be cathartic? Oh, indeed!  It's kind of what I'm counting on.

The scale I work with is as follows:

A - Outstanding (You could be an MVP, and ought to be an All-Star)
B - Good (You too could be an All-Star)
C - Average (You're getting by, there are probably bigger problems)
D - Below Average (You passed. Big deal.)
E - Fail. (You don't belong at this level. Not at this moment anyway - not yet or not anymore)
F - Epic Fail (You need to look for a new line of work.)

And I'll begin by asking how you would judge the work of the management crew: GM Alex Anthopoulos and field manager John Farrell.
 
Bring it!

Blue Jays Report Card: First Preliminary! | 53 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#263167) #
John Farrell: D+/C-
Alex Anthopoulos: C (2012 only)

The negative for both: the pitching.  The positive for both: Edwin Encarnacion.  John Farrell's additional negative: game managing. 

ayjackson - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#263168) #

John Farrell C

Alex Anthopoulos C

I'd consider a lower grade for Farrell if he any more talent to deal with, but when you're debating lineup structure when 7/9ths of it is replacement level, you've kind of lost the plot.

Moe - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#263169) #
Alex Anthopoulos -- Incomplete. Reason: Well, I know an "I" is the cheap way out but so is a C. On the one hand, his team failed miserably on the field and even without the injuries it would have been at least one SP short of being a contender. On the other hand, the Jays had a great draft by abusing the new rules and he made only one trade I really hated at the time (Happ). It is hard to know what his options were this off-season. Was CJ Wilson a real option? Would Edwin Jackson have taken a one year deal from the Jays? If you don't blame him for the injuries, most of his moves in the past 6 months were for 2013 and beyond, hence an Incomplete. However, if the Jays are not serious contenders next year, the retro grade won't be better than a C-.

John Farrell -- C+/B- Reason: I'd give a D for what we can see (game management). However, the club house management has to be at least a B considering that we haven't heard anything bad from inside the locker room despite such a bad season. And as much as I want to pretend I understand what a manager is supposed to do, looking at Boston, I can't help but think that the club house and media are more important than the in game management.

greenfrog - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#263170) #
What Moe wrote, more or less.

AA positives: EE extension (huge), Morrow extension, Janssen extension, the Oliver contract (w/ option year), the Rule 4 and IFA drafts (highly rated by most commentators), not trading a raft of talent for a bust SP like Pineda (or maybe Garza), the Delabar and Lincoln trades

AA negatives: missing out on the strong SPs available in the off-season (Gio, Latos, E-Jax, Kuroda, to a lesser extent Darvish and CJ Wilson), perhaps combined with pushing Hutchison too far, too fast; the Cordero contract; letting Mastroianni walk while installing Davis in LF; not aggressively competing in the Cespedes or Soler bidding (just as AA didn't aggressively compete for Chapman a couple of years ago)

I'm probably missing a few plusses and minuses, but those are the ones that leap immediately to mind.

Of course, hindsight is 20/20. And we don't know what sort of budget AA has to work with (probably not a huge dollar figure). We also don't know what other teams were asking for in exchange for Gio and Latos - in a couple of years we may be happy AA kept players like Sanchez, Syndergaard and Marisnick. All in all, AA might have done better, but he has continued, appropriately in my view, to focus on the future, and the injuries (and RC turf) clearly aren't his fault. I'm not sure about the coaching - maybe different coaches would have made a difference to to the performance of Romero, Alvarez, Rasmus and others. Maybe not. In any case, choosing a manager and coaches is the responsibility of the GM, so it should at least be mentioned here too.
Original Ryan - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#263172) #
Farrell: D or D+

The so-called "uncomfortable offence" has only led to increased Pepto-Bismol sales amongst Blue Jays fans, and I doubt opposing teams have been bothered by it.

The only positive thing I can say about Farrell's bullpen management is that on three occasions (by my count) he's used his closer in tie games on the road in the 9th inning or later. When I looked into it a few weeks ago, other managers around the league this year had only done that as a last resort. On most days Farrell would still prefer to lose a winnable ballgame than sacrifice a potential save opportunity for his anointed closer, but on a handful of occasions he has been willing to use his best reliever in a slightly unconventional manner.

If Boston wants Farrell this offseason, they can have him as far as I'm concerned. It would be great if the Sox sent a good player Toronto's way, but I'd happily accept Jason Repko at this point.

Anthopoulos: C or C+

I thought the Astros trade was an inefficient use of the team's depth in the low minors, and I'm uncomfortable with the Snider-for-Lincoln deal. While the bullpen needed to be addressed, I don't think Anthopoulos got enough in return for the players he gave up.

I'm willing to cut Anthopoulos a bit of slack on the issue of pitching depth. Going into spring training I thought the starting rotation would be okay. I felt that with the number of candidates they had to fill out the back of the rotation, there was a good chance that one or two of those guys would put together a good season at the major league level. Unfortunately injuries wiped out nearly all of them, and the two minor league arms closest to the majors (Jenkins and McGuire) took huge steps backward.

Mike Green - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#263173) #
The Lincoln trade a positive?  Really?
greenfrog - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#263174) #
Yes, I'm still pro-Lincoln (and anti-slavery).
Magpie - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#263175) #
When I grade the GM's season I completely ignore the draft. Totally. Don't even consider it. I realize it's a pretty important part of the job, but I just don't see what else can be done. It's going to be at least five years before this year's draft can even begin to be assessed.

By the way - it looks like you folks might be a little more sympathetic and understanding than I expect to be!
jerjapan - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#263176) #
Snider has 22ks and a 735 OPS in 96 ABs with Pittsburgh.  His career OPS?  735.  Arb eligible next year, he remains a ? mark going forward.  Lincoln has been mediocre thus far as a Jay, but has comparible pedigree to Snider and another 2 years of control, meaning a savings of a few million per year till he's arb eligible.  This deal is very much still up for debate.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#263177) #
Magpie, I think it's fair to laud the way the Jays have exploited the previous Type A/B system to garner extra picks, and their willingness to spend as much as is reasonably possible to secure amateur talent. We certainly don't know how the picks will pan out, but cumulatively, the Jays have had a lot more high picks than have most teams in recent years. Ceteris paribus, that is a good thing.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#263178) #
Also, the fact that the Jays were able to get arguably the top-ranked IFA player this summer (Franklin Baretto), at an apparently competitive price in what was essentially a free-for-all among MLB teams, would seem to speak well of the Jays' front office and Latin connections. Again, we don't know how Barreto will pan out, just as we don't know how Carlos Correa will pan out, but it's nice to get the top guy.
Alex Obal - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#263179) #
Anthopoulos did a decent job of improving the team's prospects for the future, I guess, and a pretty dubious job of improving their prospects for 2012, even given the salary constraints. The relative weight you place on those two aspects is going to color your assessment of AA's season.
CeeBee - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#263180) #
Farrell ( C )
A.A. ( B/C+)
Pretty much everything I would have said has already been mentioned by Moe and Greenfrog.
Magpie - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#263182) #
I certainly think that's fair when you want to make a judgement about a man's overall tenure, over a period of years. But in looking at a single year - I'll confine myself to what went on with the major league team.

And hey, you know me by now! I think the draft is one big crapshoot anyway, one where you don't even know if you're throwing snake eyes or sevens until years later. And I understand - I really do - that sometimes all the GM can really do is try to establish the right process, and trust the process. But even the best process isn't always rewarded, and in the end the results on the field are the ultimate arbiter. Always. Flags are forever.
ayjackson - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#263184) #

Snider has 22ks and a 735 OPS in 96 ABs with Pittsburgh.

I see a 19.8% K-rate and a 108 wRC+ as an encouraging start to his Pirate career. 

Alex Obal - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#263185) #
in looking at a single year - I'll confine myself to what went on with the major league team

If so, you'll confine yourself to an incomplete picture of the GM's performance, one which systematically undervalues (ignores!) foresight and 'asset' accumulation, and will largely miss the point in avowed rebuilding years.
StephenT - Saturday, September 08 2012 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#263186) #
Was just listening to the Red Sox rain delay radio show.  A fan asked who the next manager might be if it won't be Farrell.  (Not that the current manager's contract is up, but anyway.)  The first name the host mentioned was Torey Lovullo.  But then they spent a few minutes on whether the Jays would really stand in the way of Farrell if the Red Sox is where he wants to be.
JB21 - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#263187) #
If AA would've acquired any of the players on the top 5 of this list and extended him for 3 years 27 million, you'd give him an A. No?

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1347164105943&sortColumn=ops&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0
uglyone - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#263188) #
AA: C
JF: D
soupman - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#263189) #
the general consensus so far is AA in the C-range and Farrell in the D-range... i would flip flop those.

i think farrell was doing a fine job before everyone got hurt. that isn't to say he was doing a great job, but credit where credit is due. C/C+

aa is certainly proving that he isn't necessarily the "stealth assasin" he's been painted as. the early returns on last year's draft are disheartening to say the least. worst still, with the dodgers now entrenching themselves as the "yankees of the west" - not signing fielder or any of the FA arms last off season, appears as a missed opportunity for a cash-rich operation to take advantage of a FA market that, i suspect, will look even more ridiculous this winter in terms of dollars and years being handed out. D+/C-

Oceanbound - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 04:26 AM EDT (#263190) #
Are people evaluating AA based on the entirety of the season, which has been dire, or what the team was before the injuries hit, which was a mediocre .500 ballclub?

Even though the injuries have taken a toll, the replacements have mostly put up epically bad numbers on the batting side. Some of that has to be laid at the doorstep of the GM.

I'd give AA a D and Farrell a C.
Dave Till - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#263192) #
I look forward to reading Magpie's report - I expect much blood and thunder :-)

AA: I find it difficult to evaluate general managers because so much of what they do takes place in secret. We don't really know how many top-ranked free agents would have seriously considered Toronto, or how much other GMs would have wanted in trades. Paul Beeston's belief - if I recall correctly - is that the top free agents don't really want to play here. So the Jays' philosophy - in the 1980s and now - is to max out on scouting and minor league development at the expense of major league signings.

The only times the Jays have spent on expensive free agents was the Morris signing of 1992, Stewart/Molitor to replace Key/Winfield in 1993, and the signings of Frank Thomas and B. J. Ryan in the J.P. era. The results of the latter, as well as the Wells and Rios extensions, and what is happening in Philadelphia and Boston right now, suggest that the Jays may be following the right path in stressing minor league development. The Jays will need some luck for their minor league development to pan out, though, and 2012 was a very unlucky year both in terms of major league injuries and growth of their minor league prospects.

Another thing to note about AA: he has guts. Almost any other general manager would have given Snider the left field job for the rest of the season. He was a home-grown prospect, a fan favourite, and has some potential. But AA decided, rightly or wrongly, that Snider wasn't going to cut it, saw a chance to improve his bullpen, and went for it - not only that, he traded Thames as well. This strategy could backfire, but I think I prefer a GM who is willing to take risks. Overall, I'd grade him a cautious B or B-.

Farrell: He has almost exactly the same strengths and weaknesses as Cito Gaston. He's a good communicator but not exceptional at in-game strategy - like many Jays managers before him, he's gradually cutting out all that hit-and-run and squeeze nonsense, as the Jays are best suited to blasting the baseball out of the homer-friendly Rogers Centre. I don't blame him for not using his bench well, or for having an extra pitcher or two in the bullpen - the options available weren't exactly wonderful. I give him considerable credit for not losing the clubhouse - compare the situation in Toronto with the situation in Boston, for example. I'd grade him B or B- too.

Brief summary grades for some players:

Encarnacion: A
Doesn't get A+ because he isn't a great fielder and isn't at .300. A+ is hard to get, though, and EE has had an amazing season. Kudos to AA for extending him.

Bautista: A
He's over 30 now, and injuries will start to bother him more and more. He's smart enough and hard working enough to get everything out of his talent that he can. The rest is up to Fate.

Lawrie: B
It's important to remember how young he is (this will come up again). He's going to have to learn to play within himself. His defense at third is otherworldly. I'd give him the Gold Glove right now. Seriously. He's the best I've ever seen in a Jays uniform.

K Johnson: D
I looked at his numbers, and this is basically what he did in two of the three previous years. He isn't going to get any better. The Jays need another second baseman. (By the way, I wouldn't pine too much for Aaron Hill. The AL East is a tougher division than the NL West, and Hill had taken to swinging for the fences in Toronto.)

Lind: D
He did the same thing this year that he did last year: large quantities of suckage, assorted back injuries, and a few brief periods of awesomeness. I think I like the idea of trying him as the full-time DH next year - first base seems to take too much out of him.

Arencibia: C+
He is what he is: basically, he's a more photogenic version of Rod Barajas. Good power, low average, very low OBP, OK defense. It's too bad that d'Arnaud got hurt - I'd like to see what we've got there.

Davis: C-
Here's what he can do: (a) run (b) play passable outfield. That's about it. If Gose sticks, Davis becomes redundant.

Escobar: C+
A known quantity. I seem to recall reading that he was a bit unlucky with the bat this year - he's hitting better now, which suggests that this might be true. No real problems in the clubhouse that I know of. He's in his decline years now, and it will gradually start to show.

Cooper: D
Here's what he can do: (a) hit .300. That's about it. It's better than having no things he can do. And he does bat left handed. Somebody will pick him up if the Jays let him go.

Mathis: D-
I don't give him an F because he must be bringing something to the table to get an extension. I think. Unless he's just able to fool people with his aura of veteran presence. He shouldn't play more than once a week, though, and I wouldn't be disappointed to see him go.

Rasmus: C-
His numbers look a lot like Vernon Wells's. His swing has a lot of moving parts, and it's going to be tough to get everything together. But he's a centre fielder with power who can run, and he's younger than 27. I'd give him lots and lots of chances.

Sierra: I dunno
Still going through the honeymoon phase - pitchers haven't found his weak spots yet, so he's still getting pitches to drive. Great arm. I feel the same way about him that I did about Thames - I like him, but I don't know whether he has a high enough ceiling.

Hechavarria: N/A
It's impossible to evaluate a player this young - he potentially has four or more years of growth in him. Right now, he has exactly the same skill set as Alfredo Griffin, but with better defense. He's improving a bit as he plays more, which is a good sign. Unfortunately, the Jays might have to make a final decision on him before it's clear what sort of player he will become - this is where AA earns his money.

Gose: N/A
Same as Hechavarria: he's very young, and he is still becoming what he might be. He could be the next Devon White. Or not. How many options does he have left? When do the Jays have to decide on him?

As for the pitching: it's too depressing to think about. I do think that the 2012 Ricky Romero and the 1986 Dave Stieb have a lot in common. I am also really high on Janssen and Delabar (though SD is going to give up a few too many long home runs). Morrow is a grade-A starter, and I'm glad the Jays extended him too. Villaneuva is going to be a tough call: he will get good money in the free-agent market, but I don't know yet whether his arm can sustain a full time starting role. Loup looks like a good LOOGY - he'll replace Oliver. I never figured out which Carpenter was which, and I don't think I'll ever need to.

Gerry - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#263194) #
AA didn't do much in the off-season, the Santos/Molina trade was the biggest move. His grade therefore is as much based on omission as what he did do. Should he have added more starting pitching? There is a certain element of backward second guessing about that.

Most of the key players were retained from 2011, all of the starting position players and most of the starting pitchers were returnees.

I find it hard to give AA a "D" based on my comments and I think he should be in the "C" range.


In regard to Farrell, the team has not played well, few players are having outstanding seasons, few pitchers, Farrell's specialty, have had outstanding seasons.

There has been no sniping by players, and no sign of players giving up.

On the field Farrell is guilty of trying to do too much. When you are anxious to win it is easier to do something than do nothing. By doing something you feel you are contributing. Good managers know when to ease back and live with the players results.

They say that a bad manager can lose more games than a good manager can win. I am not sure if Farrell has lost the Jays a lot of games but he is definitely in the "meh" group. "C-" or "D+" for me.
rafael - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#263195) #
AA: B Hasn't panicked to usual Toronto media clamour to always "Do something now". It was an unlucky year for injuries. Didn't like Happ deal but possibly they had early read on the prospects given up. Had pressure from media plus Bautista and Farrell to "Do something now" Otherwise very wise risk-taker.
Farrell: C+ calming influence, a gentleman. If he goes to Boston we better get something decent for the disruption. Few odd decisions got over-magnified because of the injury-fueled losing streak
Encarnacion: A-
Bautista: B
Rasmus: C+ I'd lock him up because if the funks get shorter => all star
Escobar: B- off year with bat ...but still defensively great.
Davis: C+ as a bench guy. C- as a starter.
Johnson: D- I'd let him go and start with Hech in 2013
Arencibia: C- as Johnson, too many strikeouts. needs a two strike approach
Mathis: D+ .. got exposed...better as occasional sub
Hech, Gose, Sierra: look like promising role players as soon as 2013
Omar V: C was a contributor when it counted earlier in season
Lind bd (before demotion): F, Lind ad C- (may buy himself one more look)
ayjackson - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#263196) #

Gose A+

(I may be caught up in the moment but that swing and monster homerun last night was a thing of beauty.)

jerjapan - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#263197) #

Snider has 22ks and a 735 OPS in 96 ABs with Pittsburgh.

I see a 19.8% K-rate and a 108 wRC+ as an encouraging start to his Pirate career. 

And I see the exact same guy who couldn't win a starting job with the Jays. 

AY, I guess you are assuming that Snider keeps up his .360 OBP? 

I'm no stat guy, so this may be a stupid question, but is wRC+ controlled for position? 

Magpie - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#263198) #
Slow down, everyone! We'll get to the players!
greenfrog - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#263199) #
Perhaps this survey should be in three, not two, parts:

1. Ownership / Beeston

2. AA

3. Farrell / coaches

Many of us wish AA had gone harder after free agents in the off-season, but who knows how much cash he had to work with? I am less concerned with AA's inability to make a major trade (which could just as easily have resulted in Pineda or Garza instead of Gio or Latos). I find more annoying the missed opportunities to sign players who would have cost only money (no loss of draft picks or prospects), such as Darvish, Cespedes, Soler. These players would have boosted the team's chances without impeding its future in any way.

Incidentally, Darvish had a nice start last night, and now has an ERA+ of 109 in 169.2 IP. Pretty good for his "rookie" season with almost a month to go. Those numbers would more than play in Toronto.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#263200) #
The Lincoln trade a positive? Really?

I also view it as a positive. For those still harboring the view that Travis Snider is a superstar waiting to happen, the trade must seem inexcusable. But many of us don't hold that view, and see Snider more likely filling a role of 4th outfielder with a NL team - to be used in platoon and pinch-hitting situations, the latter presenting themselves more often in the NL. And more to the point, Snider's option years end in 2012, the result of his ill-advised rush to the majors as a 20 year old. The team made a decision based on having seen him extensively in both major and minor league roles, about what he has and likely could improve upon and what he couldn't, and decided they were better off fishing than cutting bait with him.

I have no doubt that both Snider and Thames were shopped widely and that PIttsburgh came up with the best offer, an arm that could be a more useful team part than an out of options Snider. As I've written previously, I assume LaCava, who is credited with originally wanting Snider over Matt Antonelli, would have approved the move. That Toronto was 'only' able to get a relief pitcher for Travis Snider isn't the hallmark of a 'bad deal', it's instead a reflection of how disparate the views of some Toronto fans and MLB teams were in respect of his current value.
jerjapan - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#263201) #

I find more annoying the missed opportunities to sign players who would have cost only money (no loss of draft picks or prospects), such as Darvish, Cespedes, Soler. These players would have boosted the team's chances without impeding its future in any way.

My thoughts exactly.  And in Darvish's case, top bidder gets his rights, period - no chance the player prefers another destination, unless returning to Japan was an option, and in all honesty, Toronto would likely be an appealing destination for many Japanese players. 

I'd give AA a solid B+   the Molina / Santos deal was a good one with a bad outcome - these things happen.  the EE deal is a clear win.  Morrow and Jansenn are also great extensions.  Bringing Johnson back made sense at the time, but he's  been a bust.  Mathis still seems to have some as-yet unquantifiable skill to work well with pitchers, so I'd say he's a solid backup and worth the extension, but not a bargain.  Oliver is as good as Cordero was bad .  I really like the Delabar trade since Thames is strictly a DH in my books, and the jury is still out on the Lincoln / Happ acquisitions.  My only issue with the Happ trade was not moving Lyon at the deadline after the Jays were clearly out of the race - but if the resigns, that concern is mitigated. 

You CAN evaluate drafts, and I find it odd that people suggest otherwise - and AA was widely lauded for another successful one,  and some good IFA signings. 

and, as another poster noted, the fact that AA is not afraid to go against orthodoxy - e.g. trading position players for relievers, selling high on recently drafted prospects - is a real strength.  He might be wrong in the moves themselves, but fearlessness is a very valuable commodity in conservative baseball circles. 

My biggest fault with AA this year is not assembling enough minor league starting depth.  The AAAA guys haven't panned out and the young pitchers were rushed - which easily may have contributed to the injuries. 

Farell merits a C.  Cordero was the worst example, but his orthodoxy in bullpen management overall goes against the fearless outside the box thinking espoused by AA.  he does seem like a good team leader though, and could grow into his role further.  no question this was a supremely trying season for a manager.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#263202) #

Anthopoulos gets a C, because I don't think he did enough in the Offseason - mainly failure to acquire Starting Pitching ( and Fielder?).   He loses a point in this disaster of a season for not doing enough.

Farrell gets a B-.   His work with the media was exemplarily, as apparently, was his work with his staff.  Club House problems were dealt with smoothly and nary a peep, unlike some other Teams.   His In-Game Management was much improved over last year.   I believe he will get better.   I believe he's the Manager we need going forward.

Can you do a fair evaluation of the Players this year?   I do not think so.   Edwin Encarnacion was a very pleasant surprise as was Brandon Morrow, Steve Delabar and Darren Oliver.  Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia, Jeff Mathis and Rajai Davis did not disappoint.   Casey Janssen was a pleasant surprise as was Brandon Lyon, J.A. Happ and Carlos Villanueva.  Henderson Alvarez, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Loup and Brad Lincoln did not disappoint.

The 'Trial By Fire' that Adeiny Hechavarria, Moises Sierra and Anthony Gose are going through is fascinating.   The results may assist A.A. in offseason decisions    

Magpie - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#263203) #
You CAN evaluate drafts

Oh yes. Ten years down the road. Otherwise I think you're evaluating something else; something other than the purpose of the draft, which is to acquire useful major league ball players. You're evaluating the GM's approach, or his process. Which it seems to me would be a little like evaluating a hitter on the correctness of his form, rather than what results from his at bats.
jerjapan - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#263204) #
Magpie, I agree that you are indeed measuring something else - in this case, the GMs approach.  That said, these approaches are correlated with the outcomes.  I have no idea how one would measure this objectively, but the consensus amongst the astutest minds in baseball analysys has been that AAs drafts have been excellent.  We have good reason to be optimistic about these drafts scoring well 10 years down the road, when we do in fact have objective data. 
Richard S.S. - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#263205) #
In the ever-increasing demand for content by Broadcasting Organizations will result in record T.V. contracts (and if Rogers ever fairly evaluates its' T.V. contract).   The minimum estimates of the latest T.V. deal for MLB, plus the expected forthcoming T.V. deals for MLB are $50.0 MM, but are expected to be more.   I don't think A.A. has a Budget this year.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#263210) #
Farrell: C-

I havent seen anything to suggest he is a great manager and his in game management is BRUTAL. On the other hand we havent had any Shea Hillebrand, Ted Lilly etc... Drama.

AA: B-

I think we should have paid Edwin Jackson and paid less for JA Happ, and I am mystified by his commitment to Adam Lind but I'm generally still happy with the direction of the team. The EE extension looks pretty nice.

Almost impossible to really give him a grade without knowing the parameters he is working with.
ayjackson - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#263213) #

AY, I guess you are assuming that Snider keeps up his .360 OBP?

I wouldn't assume anything.  Just cherry picking some meaningless small sample stats like you did. 

Really just hoping he gets an opportunity to persevere through a slump for once in his career.

jerjapan - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#263216) #

Except that my meaningless small sample - 96 ABs - has the EXACT same OPS as his entire big league career - 931 ABs. If you'd like to cherry pick, best not to do some from a post where the rest of what I wrote refutes your response. 

With the Snider-Lincoln trade, the question is not this year's performance for either player - it's how predictive you think that performance is.  Lincoln's been a starter his whole career, and hasn't had much success till moving to the pen, where he's been great.  so the Jays are clearly banking on their scouts telling them that his success this year is likely to continue - just like those same scouts would've said that Snider likely is what he is - a decent right fielder who is about to get more expensive. 

jerjapan - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#263217) #
I completely agree with you that he deserves a real chance to play everyday though.  I've always liked Snider, and hope he does well in Pittsburgh. 
ayjackson - Sunday, September 09 2012 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#263219) #
I think you can look at Snider's career, and the way it's been managed, and find the logic in every decision management has made, including the trade (of a guy out of options for a protected pitcher).  The problem is that the group of decisions en bloc, have failed him miserably.That's the catastrophe. [And injuries have complicated things, no doubt.]  At some point though, they should have stuck with him for 500 AB's in a row.
hypobole - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#263229) #
AA and the draft. My understanding is that some GM's don't make any picks and few GM's make picks beyond the 1st round. Choosing players is the job of the Scouting Director. The GM is responsible for signing the players drafted. I do think he and Tinnish were both responsible for the overall drafting philosophy. In that vein, I'll give AA an A- for the 2012 draft. Similar grade for IFAs

For free agency, I want to give an F, but if Darrin Oliver doesnt retire the mask will be an E. Edwin Jackson, with youth and a track record of both health and consistency should have been a priority target. Reasonable money over 4 yrs would probably have gotten it done. Cordero, who garnered the largest FA contract given out during AAs tenure, was a questionable signing at the time and helped Farrell look bad. Visquel would have been OK as part of a 5 man bench, limiting his playing time while keeping the mentoring. As part of a very short bench, he has also helped to handcuff Farrell.

For trades Ill give a C. Happ may turn out to be better than I thought he was. I liked the Santos and Delabar deals. Snider may not stay healthy enough to ever get 500 ABs in a season in the foreseeable future. Combine that with his swing issues, probably a decent reliever is all he's worth.

Contract extensions get an A-, so my overall grade is B-.

For Farrell, Ill give his game management a D+; hes not much worse than a lot of managers. His clubhouse management Ill give a B+ and media relations a who cares. Overall C+.
92-93 - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#263234) #

Incidentally, Darvish had a nice start last night, and now has an ERA+ of 109 in 169.2 IP. Pretty good for his "rookie" season with almost a month to go. Those numbers would more than play in Toronto.

Wait, you mean that Darvish's success wasn't just a product of his first trip around the league? I'm stunned that with the AL's 2nd best K/9 he's been able to rip off a nice stretch of starts even though teams have seen him and there's a ton of video out there by now.

In Darvish's last 5 starts (probably coinciding with when he got ripped on this board but I'm too lazy to check) he's posted this line:

35.2ip 20h 10er 11bb 42k 1hr 2.52era 0.87whip

Magpie - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#263243) #
In Darvish's last 5 starts

Five consecutive quality starts, first time he's done that.

One of the things that's interesting to me about his fine first year over here is the complete absence of some of the interesting splits I thought we might see. He spent his Japanese career working on longer rest than he gets over here. But his ERA on 4 days rest (4.07) is actually slightly better than what he's done on longer rest. His home stadium is a notorious hitter's paradise, but he's 9-2 4.10 at home, 5-7 4.17 on the road (so one suspects that his Run Support is taking a big heat on the road - I haven't checked.) Anyway, I think these are pretty positive signs for him.
John Northey - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#263245) #
Darvish is looking like a $10-$15 million a year pitcher so far - someone who is slightly above league average who can give you a solid season. His cost was more like $20 mil a year thus explaining why the Jays didn't bid at the levels that the Rangers did. I still feel he was the best choice for the Jays to chase though - sigh - sadly that horse has left the barn and run away to Texas.
Magpie - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#263246) #
I think you can look at Snider's career, and the way it's been managed, and find the logic in every decision management has made

Almost! I will never see the logic in the Original Sin (the promotion to the majors in 2008.) Never!

But yeah, I can see the logic of the moment in the rest of the things that happened, including the ones I didn't particularly approve of myself. I didn't much like the trade but that's mostly because I really do believe that relief pitchers grow on trees. I absolutely hated the demotion in early 2011 because I figured that sooner or later the kid had to learn how to play his way out of a slump at the major league level.

At this juncture, I think the trip to the minors in 2011 that was telling us was that someone - Anthopoulos or Farrell or both, but most likely the GM - simply didn't think particularly highly of Snider.
SK in NJ - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#263256) #

Alex made a huge mistake, and that was trying to fill the rotation internally. I mean, it was a solid idea in theory. Drabek was a top prospect prior to 2011, Alvarez had scouts raving about his stuff, and Hutichson was likely on the verge of being a top 5 prospect in the system (if he wasn't already). Of course, pitching prospects, no matter how highly rated they happen to be, have a high flameout rate. The Jays got very unlucky there, but part of that was AA's fault for not getting the type of depth necessary for a full season (and waiting so long to put Villanueva in the rotation). That probably explains the JA Happ trade as Happ is controllable for two more years and he is, likely at worst, a league average type of pitcher (although his imcreased K and GB rates could mean he has another "gear" in him, to steal a phrase from AA).

Other than that, I don't think there is much AA could have done. He is obviously handcuffed by a budget restriction, regardless of what the snake oil salesman Paul Beeston will say to the media, and I think other than overpaying Cordero, he did about as well as he could. I think the Santos, Delabar, and Lincoln trades will end up looking very good in the future, and if Happ can maintain his improved ratios next season, he has a chance to be better than advertised as well. AA really needs to start getting better offensive talent though. What he does with 2B, LF, and DH  this off-season will go a long way into determining how the season plays out.

As far as Farrell, he is not terrible, but not good either. With better talent the Jays can win with him, but at the end of the day I'd prefer they go elsewhere.

greenfrog - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#263257) #
I find it interesting that Beeston is now saying it's time to spend! We're ready to compete! Unfortunately, there isn't much starting pitching out there (perhaps even less with the injury to McCarthy). Meanwhile, last off-season, the Jays could have bid on Darvish, who is just entering his prime, for (possibly) five or six years of contention.

So far Darvish has been above average in two respects: performance and innings. That makes him doubly valuable (lots of players give you one or the other). It will be interesting to see how he fares over the next few years.
Ron - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#263278) #
John Farrell D

Ill give him credit for being respected by his players and ex-players. I have yet to hear a single player badmouth him. He also seems to be a media friendly manager. Now to the negative, his on field tactics are horrible. Hes a slave to the save (every other manager has the same problem), continues to bat Lind in the middle of the lineup when facing RHPs, and there have also been some strange steal/squeeze attempts.

AA D

Lets see:

- AA said the 2 biggest goals in the off-season were to acquire a middle of the order bat and a frontish of the rotation type starter. He failed on both accounts. Darvish would sure look nice in a Jays uni right now and we dont even have evidence that the Jays bid on him. The big guy on the Tigers also would look good in a Jays uni
- Trading Travis Snider for a middle reliever
- Not getting a backup middle infielder. Im sure Vizquel is a great guy but hes nothing but a charity case.
- Giving a 2 year deal to Jeff Mathis. Let me repeat this, he gave Jeff freakin Mathis a 2 year deal
- The signing of Coco Cordero
- Giving up a lot of depth prospects to get Jay Happ

AA's W/L record is almost the same as Ricciardi......

Ownership F

Does ownership even care about winning?
hypobole - Monday, September 10 2012 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#263281) #
"Darvish would sure look nice in a Jays uni right now and we dont even have evidence that the Jays bid on him."

Don't disagree the Jays would be better with Darvish, but what evidence is there that any team other than the Rangers bid on him? Should I check WikiLeaks?

Ron - Tuesday, September 11 2012 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#263282) #
"Don't disagree the Jays would be better with Darvish, but what evidence is there that any team other than the Rangers bid on him? Should I check WikiLeaks?"

There is none.

If the Jays did bid on Darvish, I think AA made a mistake in not confirming it. It's simply bad PR.
electric carrot - Tuesday, September 11 2012 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#263294) #
Interesting article on Farrell to Red Sox.  Seems they want him even tho they know his in game management is kind of weak. 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2012/09/05/will-red-sox-get-their-man-farrell-this-time/gLnL99xAkLkzhC93dmeUkL/story-1.html

Shaker - Tuesday, September 11 2012 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#263297) #
greenfrog,

I have to respectfully disagree with your statement that not much pitching is available this off-season.

Greinke, Peavy, EJAx, Dempster, Marcum, Kuroda, (potentially) Haren, Colby DLewis, and (doubtfully) T Hudson would all be front of the rotation SP who would greatly improve our staff.

Mid-level flotsam such as Kyle Lohse, Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Gavin Floyd and Joe Saunders could help our mid/back end.  (Not advocating.)

There's also injury-prone flyers with high upside: Liriano, Harden, Dice-K, Bedard and Oswalt.

That is the deepest FA pool for starting pitchers in a long time.  The sheer volume of options may (may) repress prices a bit too...

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 12 2012 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#263344) #
Shaker, I see your point re the high flyers in theory, but I guess I'm a bit less sanguine about what will actually happen. Here's my take:

Potentially good (and realistic) signings:

Peavy: nice arm and a competitor but significant injury risk
E-Jax: decent arm, could be a nice add, was underrated but probably not anymore. A pricier add this time around

Risky / unlikely signings:

Greinke: too rich for the Jays' blood
Kuroda: see E-Jax above. If he stays in the AL, probably re-signs with NYY
Marcum: too much injury risk
Haren: on the downside of his career?
Hudson: see Haren above (probably also prefers the NL at this point)
Lewis: injury risk

...

Agree that the mid-level flotsam probably isn't worth it.

But I disagree about the high-risk group you mention. I don't think they're particularly appealing (I think the Jays might have to hunt for next year's Hammel/Colon/Garcia, but I don't know where they're likely to find him).

Many of the decent high/mid-flyers you mention are guys that other teams bought low on (Peavy, Jackson, Kuroda, Lohse). I think this is what the Jays need to aim for, rather than pay dearly for a player whose value has already been inflated (see Burnett, AJ).
scottt - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 06:35 AM EDT (#263361) #
John Farrell D

Everything I see looks below average and I can't judge the rest.

Alex Anthopoulos D

Too many guys signed that should not not have been. Needed to sign a starting pitcher instead.
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