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The Jays have 69 wins with six games left, three more against the Yankees and three with the Twins. But this team is not going quietly into the night, Omar Vizquel created a brouhaha today with some comments.

Chad Jenkins starts today in a big test for him. Jenkins is likely to start in the last game of the season against the Twins. He could do well in that game, the Twins will be hacking to get out of town ASAP and Jenkins sinker could be hit into the ground again and again.



Omar Vizquel gave an interview to Steve Simmons, published today, and he had some pointed comments:

Vizquel, who called his only season in Toronto a personal disappointment, said he believed the Jays run too loose a ship, let too much go throughout the season and need to “jump on mistakes” more often than they have in John Farrell’s second season as manager, Vizquel’s only season here.

Those comments set the cat among the pigeons and Vizquel appeared to be hauled over the coals by John Farrell. The Jays had a 30 minute closed door meeting this afternoon. Farrell suggested Vizquel's comments pushed him over his tipping point. Vizquel appeared to apologize for going public with his comments, but maybe not for the comments themselves. Vizquel's comments come after similar comments by Greg Zaun a few weeks ago.

I am writing this in the second inning of Fridays game and the Jays have had two baserunners eliminated in bad plays already tonight. Brett Lawrie and Yunel Escobar made baserunning mistakes similar to ones they have made before. Do these mistakes validate Vizquel's comments?

There are several ways to interpret Omar's comments and the reaction:

1. Omar is generally unhappy with his role on the team this year and that unhappiness made him unhappy with the team and its performance generally.

2. Omar and Zaun are old school and don't like what they see from the kids.

3. John Farrell is feeling vulnerable and he didn't like Vizquel piling on. He reacted to the comments because it weakened him when he is worried that his job might be in jeopardy.

Omar is right and Farrell just didn't appreciate the public comments.

I don't know which one, or which combination it was. Do You?

Meanwhile the Jays have six games left. Three with playoff implications and three that truly just play out the string. There is probably not much to be learned in these last six games. Adeiny Hechavarria has been relegated back to the bench. Will Bobby Korecky or Shawn Hill get to pitch? Will there be any more unusual plays like the catch made by Chad Jenkins tonight?

The Quest for 70 | 107 comments | Create New Account
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dan gordon - Friday, September 28 2012 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#263977) #
Since the first few games of last season, I have felt that the Blue Jays were costing themselves runs with their baserunning.  Whether you call them mistakes, or overagressiveness, I think it is a non-trivial issue for this team, and I think Farrell has to take much of the blame.  He is the manager, after all.  I hope they can make a deal and let him go to Boston for a decent prospect.  This team just doesn't seem to value on base percentage enough, and tends at times to view baserunners as a disposable commodity.  What really is a shame is that this team has good power, and a high on base percentage goes hand in glove with power.  More people on base means those HR's bring in more runs.  The organization doesn't seem to fully grasp that concept, and prefers to add speedy players rather than guys who can take a walk and/or hit for average.  I don't think Farrell is the only one with that flawed line of thinking, either.
Craig B - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#263978) #
Farrell is right to have a meeting and right to punish Vizquel if it comes to that. But more than this, while it speaks to a problem with Farrell, it speaks to a serious problem with Vizquel. I've been on a low burner for a couple of months now about the lack of leadership on this ballclub and I've reached a raging bloody boil with Vizquel over it now, because what the hell else was he signed for if not to be a visible leader and presence? He's been a hideous hitter, damaging baserunner and he can't play shortstop anymore either.

If things were so bad then the veteran player signed for his leadership should have been working his butt off to make sure it didn't happen. Obviously I can't blame Vizquel for the shortcomings of others, but he was here specifically to help lead and mentor young players.
Oceanbound - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 02:50 AM EDT (#263980) #
I'm not sure how you can blame Vizquel for lacking leadership, when you have no idea what really goes on in the clubhouse. People aren't obligated to listen to someone just because they've been playing for a long time. It's not like Vizquel has the power to bench people. What's he going to do, slap them down?
greenfrog - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 03:54 AM EDT (#263981) #
I support Vizquel (and Zaun) in his comments. He cares, and that is a good thing.

I think that when these sorts of comments make their way into the media, especially from an experienced veteran like Vizquel, there is probably a real issue - "where there's smoke, there's fire."

From my perspective, the team is playing poorly, with lots of stagnating/regressing players (including talented young players who should be making forward strides) and questionable mistakes on the field. Excuses are in abundance, though. Hiring Farrell made sense in theory (young well-regarded pitching coach with front office experience hired away from divisional rival by young bright GM to manage young emerging team) but I don't think it has worked out all that well. These dysfunctional patterns are often hard to change once entrenched.
TamRa - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 04:02 AM EDT (#263982) #
I don't take a position on whether the "old school" guys are objectively "right" about how tightly the ship needs to be run. I just don't have the sort of clubhouse experience to weight in.

But for a person who's sole reason for being on the club is to impart wisdom, it's baffling that je doesn't display the wisdom necessary to wait a couple of weeks to make such comments. surely the "old school" way of doing things is to not "talk out of school" while employed by the team, no?

I have no idea how much of a mentor he has or has not been, but he speaks of not knowing what his role was - perhaps he was in more than a little denial if he thought he was hired primarily to hit or catch a baseball at his age. If I can see, hundreds of miles away, that what they wanted from him is precisely the thing he says SOMEONE ought to have been doing...well, I'd respect it a lot more if he'd said "I stayed on certain guys' ass all year long but no one had my back."For different reasons, I think both Brett and Yuunel would most likely have treated his word as gospel.

All that said, i don't think it's unrealistic to think Farrell might still be a bit too lax in some areas. This exposes the weakness of hiring a person who's never been a manager to be your manager, no matter how otherwise suited he is - there's a learning curve in terms of being the boss. but he also strikes me as the sort of guy who is conscious of his failings and able to learn from them. (even if he doesn't appreciate having them called out in public - no one would)
If anything, this sort of public flogging actually hampers Alex's freedom to make a deal of convenience with the Red Sox if he'd wanted to. It serves no good purpose. Certainly if Vizquel wanted to personify "old school" he could have had a nice exit interview with alex and John and been brutally frank about his old school observations, IN HOUSE and it would have been much more valuable in every concievable way.


Chuck - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#263983) #
For a guy who wants a job as a manager, his remarks and their timing seem a little calculated to me. It's as if his critique is meant to serve as an indication to interested GMs as to how exactly he would run a team.
Dave Till - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#263985) #
I think that a lot of this is happening because Jose Bautista isn't in the dugout.

I listened to Gregg Zaun's latest rant, and he's missing the point. You can't punish players for baserunning mistakes by taking away playing time. This isn't high school baseball - if you keep players off the field for disciplinary reasons, you lose games. And the players might rebel. For an example of what could happen, look at Boston and Bobby Valentine.

Hauling in "veteran leadership" will only work if the veterans are contributing significantly on the field. There is a hierarchy in baseball - the best players get the most respect, and are listened to by younger players. (See Bautista, above.) Vizquel's effectiveness as a mentor has been limited because he hasn't been doing much on the field. If the Jays want to change the tone of their clubhouse, they'll have to sign some free agents with experience *and* the ability to still contribute.

On the other hand: it's very easy for talented players to drift into neutral, particularly if the team is not a contender. They know that there is no one who can replace them, so there's no incentive to deliver maximum effort This was the curse that befell the Gord Ash era Jays, IMHO.

Job 1 for a major league manager is to (a) keep control of the clubhouse and (b) get the special snowflakes that are major league ballplayers to stay focused on the goal of winning games. Everything else is details: anybody with reasonable amounts of functional intelligence can figure out how to make out a starting lineup, when to rest regulars, when to steal, sacrifice, or hit-and-run, and how to keep a pitching staff healthy. If the Jays aren't giving sufficient effort under Farrell, this might be an indictment of Farrell. But I'm reluctant to sack him and replace him with a stern disciplinarian - this could lead to worse problems.

(This isn't the first time that fans and pundits have suggested that the Jays hire a butt-kicking manager, by the way. When Jimy Williams was here, there were many who wanted him to be replaced by some tough guy who could put those prima donnas (i.e. Bell) in their place. Instead, the Jays hired Cito. At the time, it kind of worked out .:-))

Dave Till - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#263986) #
One more thought: had the opponents last night been any team other than the Yankees, I don't think that the Jays' baserunning carelessness would even have been noticed. Very few first basemen try to throw out a straying lead runner at second base with first base open and less than two out - I would guess that almost any other major league team would have taken the sure out at first.

Similarly, the snap throw to third to get Escobar wasn't something that most major league teams would try - Buck and Pat pointed out that this would have been a pre-set play, agreed upon and signalled by Martin and Rodriguez. Not many teams have the level of professionalism that the Yankees have. This is something for the Jays to strive for.

John Northey - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#263987) #
Agreed that a big part of the problem is missing Bautista. From all accounts he is a team leader both in the clubhouse and on the field. 2 games since July 16th hurts the team in a lot of ways. Back then the Jays were at 500, last in the AL East but just 2 games out of a playoff slot. Since then the Jays have been 24-43, only Cleveland and Boston have been worse in the AL (Miami, Cubs, and Houston in the NL), losing 19 1/2 games to Baltimore in the standings (the hottest team in the AL).

Clearly a healthy Bautista is the #1 thing for 2013. #2 is starting pitching (just 2 starters have an ERA+ over 100 and Villanueva is dropping fast). The team ERA+ is 92, OPS+ 93. Ugh. Clear improvements for 2013 will be getting rid of Vizquel and hoping Escobar, Gose, Gomes, Hechavarria, all have OPS+ over 80 and that a replacement for Johnson can do better than an 82.

Craig B - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#263989) #
"I think that a lot of this is happening because Jose Bautista isn't in the dugout."

I agree Dave. Bautista means a lot more to the team than just his bat.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#263990) #
this sort of public flogging

In general, the Toronto media has been pretty gentle with AA, Farrell and the Jays (fawning might be a more accurate term). If you read what Vizquel actually said, it wasn't particularly harsh. It's obvious that the Jays have been underperforming and making a lot of mistakes, and that a number of players have stalled. The issue shouldn't be protecting Farrell's tender feelings, but rather getting the ship righted.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#263991) #
I'm not sure that Bautista's hissy fits every time a borderline call went against him in 2012 set the benchmark for professionalism on the field.
Magpie - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#263992) #
had the opponents last night been any team other than the Yankees, I don't think that the Jays' baserunning carelessness would even have been noticed.

Well, that's always the way. You run the bases like that against the bad defensive teams and it helps you win. But you do it against the good defensive teams, and you help them win. And the Yankees are a very good defensive team - they don't have the best defensive talent (especially in the infield) but they really know what they're doing out there. And while I'm typing that, one of the kids (Gomes) got caught off third base for the third out of the inning. You never expected them to throw behind you, did you? These are the New York Yankees, son.

I do agree that the team misses Bautista in more ways than can be counted. But I haven't exactly thought that their problems have had a lot to do with a lack of intensity. On the basepaths anyway, it's been a lack of judgement. They've run into a lot of outs, especially compared to 2011, and the guys most responsible have not been Lawrie and Davis, but rather Encarnacion and Rasmus.
dan gordon - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#263993) #
Oh boy, more incompetent baserunning today.   Absolutely ridiculous.
TamRa - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#263994) #
The issue shouldn't be protecting Farrell's tender feelings, but rather getting the ship righted.

Of course. I was suggesting this was a poor way to accomplish that.
robertdudek - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#263996) #
I'm not sure that Bautista's hissy fits every time a borderline call went against him in 2012 set the benchmark for professionalism on the field.

It's worked for Jeter.
Alex Obal - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#263997) #
A propos of not much - clubhouse drama is important but it's never really been my thing - how about that pennant race!

So, I watched the White Sox defeat the Rays 3-1 last night. It was a tense, well-pitched game. Ultimately, Gavin Floyd's "don't give in" (5 IP, 1 R, 5.00 P/PA, 5 BB, 6 K, 2 H) won out over Jeremy Hellickson's "pitch to contact" (5.2 IP, 3 R, 3.44 P/PA, 1 BB, 2 K, 9 H). With Detroit's loss, the fading Sox have pulled back within 1 game of the Central lead. Takeaways:

- In case you weren't aware, Ozzieball is dead. Chicago is now the slowest, most station-to-station-minded team in the AL. They had at least 4 "groundouts" which would have been infield hits for Adam Lind. The new go-go Sox: Dunn, Pierzynski, Viciedo, Konerko, Youkilis. Absent-minded pitchers beware. (Keepers of the flame: Ramirez and Wise.)

- Jesse Crain pitched 2.2 dominant innings of relief to protect the 2-1 lead he inherited in the sixth. In a meaningful game, when each team's bullpen was about 15 deep, against a left-leaning lineup. Pretty remarkable. He's having a great year.

- After shortstop (!!) Ben Zobrist homered in the first, the White Sox decided they wouldn't willingly let him beat them. Even with Longoria and Joyce providing 'protection.' Give this man some MVP votes.

- First star: Alex Rios. Homer, frozen-rope double, tough running catch on the track in right to deny Matt Joyce a line-drive double, and (plus ca change) he doubled himself off first in the 8th inning.

- Chicago's setup man Nate Jones is becoming one of my favorite pitchers to watch. A 96-mph bow-and-arrow fastball - shades of Keith Foulke. Give Jones Foulke's changeup and nobody will ever hit him again.

- The Sox pitching strategy was to never ever ever ever ever give in. A.J. Pierzynski called for something offspeed in most 3-2 and 2-0 counts. Like, he once went with a baffling 3-2 slider to switch-hitting #9 hitter Jose Lobaton (who fouled it off and then swung through a heater). It's interesting: what's the best approach for a Floyd type to use against the walk-happy Rays in the homer-happy Cell? Yesterday, the high-risk, high-reward approach worked.  Floyd finished his day with the Matsuzaka special: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 6 K, culminating in a 380-foot flyout by Zobrist, on a 3-1 mistake fastball.

- The game left me wondering, what exactly distinguishes Floyd from Carlos Villanueva? Only two answers leap to mind. One is circular and one is mystical. It's interesting that one of those players is going to command a lot of money when he hits FA and the other one probably isn't. Innings-eater premium and all.
hypobole - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#263998) #
"On the basepaths anyway, it's been a lack of judgement. They've run into a lot of outs, especially compared to 2011, and the guys most responsible have not been Lawrie and Davis, but rather Encarnacion and Rasmus."

Maybe I'm missing something, but I've rarely seen Edwin's poor judgement on the basepaths this year, especially considering how often he's been on base.
Magpie - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#263999) #
how about that pennant race!

And didn't this old fool tell you nine days ago that it was all over everywhere except in the AL Central where the White Sox were holding what I suggested was a very fragile two game lead on Detroit? And all I heard was - but what about the Brewers? And the Dodgers?

(Author puffs out chest, preens for the camera, issues self-congratulatory posts on the Intertubes. To be followed a needless victory lap, and possibly a tour of the provinces...)
Magpie - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#264000) #
I've rarely seen Edwin's poor judgement on the basepaths this year

He's made 9 outs on the bases this season. Which is a lot. Albert Pujiols leads the league with 16; Rasmus is tied for second with 11.

The entire Oakland team has made just 31 outs on the bases. The 2011 Jays made just 45. This year's team has a chance at 70.

Davis doesn't run into as many outs. But he's been picked off 7 times (only Andrus and Kinsler have been picked off more often), which does take some of the shine off his SB percentage.
katman - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#264003) #
First, I'm glad Shawn Hill pitched, and I'm glad he won. I thought he did a pretty good job last year, too.

As for Vizquel (and now Lind's mea culpa, too)...

Vizquel and Lind are mostly right. It's clear to everyone that the teaching sessions Farrell refers to aren't working. Vizquel doesn't need to be privy to them, in order to comment. He can see that they aren't working, because the same mistakes are being made, again and again.

Part of that is about adapting to a new offensive style. That takes time. On the other hand, having Rajai Davis throw way over umpteen cutoff men, night after night, is not major league baseball. By now, it's time for the initial offensive experimentation and adjustments to be over. And the defensive issues never should have persisted. As manager, it's Farrell's responsibility to find an approach that does work, so the mistakes diminish and then stop.

In fairness, he and his coaches aren't the only element in the equation.

It's the front office's responsibility to work with them to highlight the need for more professional play to the players, even if it means sending some people down to get their acts together.

The players also have a responsibility here, and this is an area where Jose Bautista can improve. His pouting and attitude with the umpires at the plate were actively unhelpful to the team this year, to the point where the manager had to call a meeting to deal with the problem from this spreading example. That can't happen again in 2013.

The team gets a bit of a break from me this year, only because lack of depth and injuries have meant that sending people down hasn't always been an option. That weakens Farrell's position a lot, and makes his teaching strategy a defensible choice in a "no other options" situation.

BUT -  it's the front office's responsibility to ensure that this is not the case next year, and that players understand clearly that they won't be regular players, or in some cases even major league players, unless the professionalism improves.

It simply has to improve, and if it doesn't, the team WILL need a new manager. If it doesn't improve, the scrutiny AA faces will also ratchet up, sharply.

When Toronto fans say they want a major league team, they don't mean "like the movie." In the real world, the scriptwriters can't save you, and you just lose. A lot.

Magpie - Saturday, September 29 2012 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#264004) #
I've had this small hope that the team would find a way to sign Brandon McCarthy this off-season: partially because he's a decent pitcher but mostly, I confess, because he has the most entertaining Twitter feed of any athlete anywhere. Him and Mrs McCarthy. But I always figured that he'd re-up with Oakland; he seems like a pretty smart guy, and the smart thing would be to stay with the up and coming team in a great park for a pitcher.

But today when the missus tweeted to ask him why she was the last one waiting after the game because "You didn't even play!" Brandon tweeted back:

"Had a 40 minute conversation with a soap dispenser. Shut up I have a brain injury."

So maybe he won't do the smart thing!
scottt - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#264005) #
Meaningful baseball against the Yankees as late as September 30.

ayjackson - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#264006) #
If BM is as smart as advertised, Mrs. M will be calling the shots in FA...and "get me the hell out of Oakland" could be the initial one.
AWeb - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#264007) #
The basic baserunning mistakes, and some of the defensive failings, and the presence of a large number of "too soon" prospects, make this a very hard team to watch right now. For some reason, Rasmus bothers me the most.  Standing at the front of the batters box, and almost over the edge of the plate are two pretty unique hitting strategies. You think every other hitter in baseball stands in the back of the box off the plate a bit for a good reason? Rasmus doesn't even translate his batters box positioning into HBP, which should be one of the advantages of standing there. He's also not fast enough or prone to hitting the type of infield choppers where a step head start towards first might help. If he can't be coached into accepting that seeing the ball longer and not jamming himself by default might be good things, then please just play Gose next year.

The announcers say a lot of concerning things about what the coaches are telling hitters too. Yesterday, Buck and Tabler were talking about how Lawrie was being told he was letting too many hittable pitches go by and he needs to attack more. This year in reality,  he's swinging more at strikes, swinging more at balls, and making contact more often on both. His problem has not been related to not being willing to swing. Every hitter does not have the ability to wait for the "one pitch" and crush it, like the success stories of Bautista and Encarnacion (who swing less than anyone on the team). I hope that the younger hitters on the team aren't broken permanently already...

At least they won #70 I guess...this team stinks right now, but at least it should be easier to blow it up and make some major moves. The hope of things breaking the right way and sneaking into the playoffs is gone. The team needs some new parts in the dugout and on the field. Fiddling around the edges isn't going to cut it. If he plays again, it's a bad sign for how soft Farrell is. When a useless player calls you out in the media, he doesn't play again.

Oh, and Vizquel has been useless this year, and should shut up about anything. His only possible use to the team this year would have been if he could teach the younger players something, you know, like the sorts of things he's complaining about not being focused on enough. I'd cut him now. Can't hit, can't field, can't run, and can't not be a problem in the media, and apparently can't help with playing the game the right way.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#264008) #
Measuring the impact of the club's adventures on the basepaths is not simply a matter of counting outs.  You have to count extra bases taken, consider the impact on GIDP totals, and then wonder about whether the "pressure" on the defence has any added impact.  Fangraphs measures at least the first additional factor, and has the club as a slight net positive for the year, with Davis, Gose, Escobar and Lawrie leading the way and significantly net positive.  The trailers are Arencibia, Cooper, Vizquel and Lind.  It should be noted that the club is 13th in the league in OBP, 8th in the league in slugging and 8th in the league in runs scored.  They have done  better than ought to be expected from the number of runners on base and the power on the club.

This was a season with two different offences.  The one that was healthy and led the league in scoring near the end of July, and the poor substitute for it the last two months of the year.  Even after Bautista was hurt, the club kept scoring enough runs.  My sense, and I cannot prove it, is that the club simply gave up after the moves at the deadline.  The club felt that ownership had given up on the season and responded in kind.  Obviously, the Bautista injury and the club's falling out of the race (with the result that young players were tested) was  important, but the response to the Bautista injury seemed to me to be a net negative for the club, and I suspect that the players on the club saw it the same way. 
Chuck - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#264011) #

It should be noted that the club is 13th in the league in OBP, 8th in the league in slugging and 8th in the league in runs scored.

I'm not disputing that baserunning was a component of the team's overachieving, but there was a clutchiness factor (repeatable or not) as well. While the average AL team got a 40-point OPS bump with RISP, it was a 60-point bump for the Jays meaning they were able to better take advantage of their high leverage situations as compared to the their own personal baseline. I can't say how much of their overachieving can be specifically attributed to this.

No one on base (60% of the PA): 701 OPS (AL 712 OPS)
RISP (23% of the PA): 760 OPS (AL 751 OPS)

hypobole - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#264012) #
"Measuring the impact of the club's adventures on the basepaths is not simply a matter of counting outs."

I concur with Mike on this point.
Three scenarios.
1. Man on 2nd, less than 2 out. Ground ball to SS. Runner at 2nd takes off, SS throws to 3rd and the runner is still 5 ft away when the 3rd baseman is standing waiting with the ball.
2. 2 out, batter hits a rocket off the wall. Tries to stretch it into a double, but the outfielder plays it cleanly and makes a perfect throw to nip the runner at 2nd.
3. Man on, batter gets a base hit. Butterfield waves the runner home, but he's thrown out.

Only 2 and 3 are outs on the basepaths, the 1st is a fielders choice. Yet for both basepath outs, the runner did the right thing, it was the fielders choice runner that made the unwise decision.

To me, it's been guys like Rajai, Lawrie, Escobar and Rasmus that have made the most unwise decisions, although, to be fair, most of those guys have also made a lot of good aggressive decisions as well.
China fan - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#264014) #
"...My sense, and I cannot prove it, is that the club simply gave up after the moves at the deadline. The club felt that ownership had given up on the season and responded in kind...."

I agree with this. Oddly enough, it's one of the reasons why I have hope for 2013. Even setting aside all the injuries, the performances of the healthy players since August have been artificially deflated by the apathy that descended onto the team when they realized the season was effectively over. (And yes, you could blame the manager for failing to keep the players fully roused and enthused for the last couple months of the season -- but it's just human nature to tail off when the games are meaningless.)
Mike Green - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#264017) #
A couple of notes on the Cardinals.  They said after the trade last year that they traded Rasmus because they thought that Jon Jay was better.  It looks like they were right.  And what about Kyle Freaking Lohse?  At age 24, he was on Brett Cecil's list of similars.  He was about the same through age 27.  And then this.  The Cardinals seem to have had the longest tradition of finding talent where others do not see it. 
hypobole - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#264018) #
"The club felt that ownership had given up on the season and responded in kind...."

Cubs traded FA-to-be Demptster. Miami traded Sanchez, Hanley, Mujica and Infante. Boston traded AGon and Beckett. These are clubs that may have felt ownership had given up on the season and responded in kind.

At the deadline Jays had FA's-to-be Brandon Lyon, Jason Frasor and Kelly Johnson, all of whom could have provided some value to some contending club. Jays management knew they would get nothing from any of them leaving at years end. The Jays chose to trade none of them.

In fact, the Brewers traded FA-to-be Zack Greinke and responded with a terrific run. Phillies have played over .500 since trading Victorino and Pence. Astros traded almost every veteran of value and have a better record than the Jays in September.

I hate the excuse the team gave up because ownership gave up, because that's simply not true. Shortly after Bautista asked for help, AA traded off Wojo, Comer, Musgrove and Perez to acquire Happ and Lyon. Not a move a front office that has "given up on the season" would make.
Chuck - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#264021) #

And then this.  The Cardinals seem to have had the longest tradition of finding talent where others do not see it. 

While I certainly agree with this (Dave Duncan was an underappreciated genius), Lohse's case is a little different. He was a successful Cardinals reclamation project in 2008 and then after signing a 4-year contract, immediately returned to stinkland for the next two years. In the two since, including this year, he has logged 400 innings of 122 ERA+, just in time to hit the FA market. Fangraphs gives him an xFIP of around 4.00 during this 400-inning stretch so his next team may end up being quite disappointed.

 

 

 

 

 

Mike Green - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#264023) #
That is true, hypobole. I felt that when the club did nothing to improve, and actually weakened LF/DH, a message was sent.  The club could not afford to run out Davis and Lind every day.  Maybe that view is entirely wrong, and perhaps it was the Bautista injury alone that changed a very good offence into a very poor one.  Whatever it was, there was a pretty clear dividing line to the season offensively.
Spifficus - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#264026) #

They were doing OK up to July 28 (51-49, which isn't bad considering the pitching woes), but Bautista and Arencibia were out, while Lawrie and Rasmus were both fighting injuries. With the offensive difficulties of Johnson and Escobar, they were down to a 2-man offense (Encarnacion and Lind's replacement, Cooper) and it showed (.616 August OPS). Unless we're talking cheap lightning-in-a-bottle style replacements, I'm not sure what the front office could have been expected to do to paper that over. In fact, they probably should have sold off a few of their FA's-to-be for pieces potentially of use in '13.

Gerry - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#264027) #

Jen Royle, who works for WEEI in Boston tweeted the following tonight:

Source: The Jays are willing to let Farrell go Boston as long as they're compensated due to friction btwn JF and GM Alex Anthopoulos


That might explain why Farrell reacted as strongly as he did to the Vizquel comments.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#264028) #
Yep just saw that Royle thing on twitter.

The plot, she thickens....

Original Ryan - Sunday, September 30 2012 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#264032) #
As this seems to be the more appropriate place to discuss Farrell at the moment (or at least less inappropriate than the Playoff Races Chatter thread), to respond to the points Spifficus raised:

Did Farrell really display a lack of 'common sense', if no one else that holds the same position (or at least the vast majority) would have done the same thing?

I view using your best reliever when the situation warrants it as being such a plainly obvious thing to do that it would be, in my opinion, the common sense approach to bullpen management. If saves didn't exist, I strongly suspect that managers would use their bullpens in this manner.

I see the overvaluation of saves as being similar to the near-universal undervaluation of on-base percentage years ago. The fact that every team undervalued John Olerud in 1996 shouldn't prevent Gord Ash from being criticised for making the trade with the Mets. Similarly, if John Farrell uses his bullpen in an inefficient manner, he deserves criticism for it even if other managers handle their bullpens in similar ways. A manager is supposed to help his team win ballgames, and if Farrell had employed a better approach to bullpen management, he would have given his team a better shot at winning today's game.

And now to respond to Magpie as well...

The second reason is that managers have discovered that relief pitchers are far, far more effective when they know what their role is and when they can expect to come into the game.

The issue isn't whether roles should be defined, but how they should be defined. Using your best reliever in the late innings of tight games is a defined role -- it's just not a conventionally defined role. Other roles wouldn't change all that much, if at all. Relievers would still know when they're likely to come into games.

If a manager did abandon the "traditional" closer role and the changes were implemented well, I think you'd see players buy into it. Rallies in the 7th and 8th innings that would have led to losses previously would be snuffed out on a more regular basis. Late-inning losses in general would be demoralizing, and if a different approach led to fewer of them, I can't see there being much of a problem.

Spifficus - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 04:52 AM EDT (#264035) #
I just find it tough to roast a guy specifically for something that no one else in his profession would do differently. If you want to rail against the system that leads to this thinking, sure, but left unchecked, it'd be used as another data point as to the demerits of Farrell, where there's no expectation that this utilization would change under anyone else.
jerjapan - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#264037) #

I felt that when the club did nothing to improve, and actually weakened LF/DH, a message was sent. 

Except that Sierra has been an improvement on Snider offensively.  It's entirely possible that the Jays thought they were improving the offense in left by moving Snider.  Combine this with the additions of Happ and Lyon, and to me it's clear that the Jays were improving their team at the deadline.  Sure, they were controversial trades that also improve the team long ter - but why trade for a veteran reliever in Lyon with an expiring contract if you are not trying to improve?

John Northey - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#264038) #
Snider being moved was a multi-issue thing I think. Snider was actually hitting well when traded (124 OPS+) thus some of the players might have thought 'woohoo, he finally is doing what we all thought he could' then saw him traded and went 'crap' regardless of what he did next. Might also have been an issue seeing both Snider & Thames traded at the same time.

Still, I think the big killer is just that the staff was dead by then and injuries were mounting on offense as well. Early on Johnson was hitting well to help, Mathis was hitting well, Rasmus did well from April to the end of June (sOPS+ of 97-104-137 by month). Then suddenly Rasmus stopped hitting (79-40-68 sOPS+ for July-Aug-Sept), Johnson stopped (sOPS+ from A-S 114-120-64-77-67-66), Mathis became a pumpkin again (229-8 below-129-102-34-70), and no one else stepped up. Bautista & Lawrie going down and being replaced by sub-optimal bats (only Cooper, Snider, Bautista & Encarnacion have 100+ OPS+ with Lawrie the only other one over 92) means there was no hope at that point.

No question the killer was losing 2 solid bats (Bautista & Lawrie) and a guy warming up (JPA who had a sOPS+ of 187 over 55 PA in July) in August and seeing Rasmus/Johnson/Mathis all hit with the wrong end of the bat while Gose/Sierra/Hechavarria/Gomes all failed to inspire. Cooper did well replacing Lind (110 OPS+) but nowhere near enough to compensate and then was hurt too.

For 2013 the key is A) Health, B) Rasmus and at least one of the kids hitting well, C) deciding which kids to give a shot to and making the right choice (Gose, Sierra, Hech, d'Arnaud, ...) and getting a solid new guy in for whatever slot isn't covered.

In 2012 (so far) the sOPS+ by position (comparing the Jays production to league average for that position) is...
Solid...
DH 112 (all Encarnacion's doing)
1B 108 (Encarnacion/Cooper)
RF 108 (Bautista)

Poor...
3B 90 (Lawrie 95, 68 for Hech, 32 Vizquel)
CA 89 (JPA 100, Mathis 81)
SS 88 (Escobar)
CF 87 (Rasmus)
2B 86 (Johnson)
P 84 (last year was negative so big improvement)

Unacceptable...
LF 75 (Davis 76, Thames 81, Gose 22, Snider 121)
PH 74 (Vizquel the most often used...nuff said)
Original Ryan - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#264041) #
I just find it tough to roast a guy specifically for something that no one else in his profession would do differently.

I will admit that I shouldn't place all the blame on Farrell. Based on Alex Anthopoulos's moves and public comments to this point, it's clear that he and Farrell are on the same page when it comes to bullpen roles. My criticisms of the team's approach should also be aimed at Anthopoulos.

From a big-picture standpoint, I see bullpen usage as a missed opportunity. People in the sabermetric community have been complaining about the use of closers for years, and leverage statistics are now readily available. The research is out there. A team should always be looking for a new way to gain a competitive edge, and I think it's perfectly fair to criticise the team's management when it fails to take advantage of an obvious opportunity to get more out of its players and win more ballgames. Without a truly established closer on the roster, this would have been a great year for the Blue Jays to try reshaping the roles in the bullpen.

John Northey - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#264047) #
I think the big trick is to have 2 or 3 guys who you can count on in those situations. In truth, to contend you almost need 2 or 3 guys you can count on. The last great Jays teams had combos - Henke & Ward in 92 and earlier, Ward & Timlin/Eichhorn/etc. Janssen and Santos should be solid, and Oliver if he doesn't retire. Loup (super low walk & HR rates) & Delabar (high K rates) have shown promise, and if they resign Lyon all the better.
Gerry - Monday, October 01 2012 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#264068) #

Shi Davidi, who seems to be the best connected writer following the Jays, dives into the friction controversy.

That doesn't mean the two haven't clashed -- they have, as every manager and GM do, dating back to last winter, when Farrell hoped for a mid-to-back of the rotation starter to stabilize the staff, while Anthopoulos aimed higher and either balked at the prices or couldn't complete a deal.

The question unasked is whether their relationship is damaged, and it doesn't seem to be.

"We've had a number of challenges that have been thrown our way, and we work to find the best solution," said Farrell. "I think that's the most important thing, being part of the solution rather than being the issue that's got to be worked through."

The sense in the clubhouse seems to be that Farrell isn't the problem, either. While some players say privately that things need to be "tightened up" a bit across the board in terms of how things operate, they also seem willing to give him some leeway for growth.

At the same time, Farrell was also praised for keeping players informed on what's happening, playing psychologist, and helping create a good environment for everyone to work in, no simple task given the past two months.

China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 06:38 AM EDT (#264071) #
There's another significant revelation in the Davidi story: he says the Jays were "deflated" after the trade deadline and after the injuries in late July and early August, and this was one reason why the team "fell off the cliff" afterwards. This sort of confirms some of our own speculation here. Personally I think the acquisition of Happ and Lyon was intended as a two-pronged move -- help the team in 2012 and also help it in 2013. The injuries were probably a bigger factor than the trade deadline. But I'm sure that some players were hoping for bigger moves at the deadline.

Here's what Davidi says (and remember that this is based on his private conversations with Jays players):

"The beginning of the Blue Jays' nosedive in the standings coincided with the July 30-Aug. 1 three-game series in Seattle, just after injuries to J.P. Arencibia and Adam Lind further depleted the lineup. Over those three days, Brett Lawrie first tweaked his oblique, Jose Bautista suffered a setback in the rehab of his wrist injury, the Mariners swept all three games, and the trade deadline came and went with some help for the bullpen but no other reinforcements.
That left players deflated and disappointed, and combined with the incoming injection of not-ready-for-primetime youth that followed, things fell off a cliff."
Dave Till - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#264073) #
One thing that hasn't been mentioned in all the Farrell to Boston discussion is this: why on earth would John Farrell want to manage the Boston Red Sox right now? The Sox are in free-fall - they've lost 10 of their last 11 games against AL East contenders, and have been outscored 72-30. (The one win was a 2-1 squeaker over Baltimore.) The Jays have more or less turned things around, on the other hand - they're 5-5 in their last 10, and managed to split against both Baltimore and New York. The Jays have already clinched at least a tie for fourth - if the Sox lose to the Yankees, or the Jays beat Minnesota, the Bostons will have last place all their own.

If Farrell actually wants to manage the Sox, he obviously lacks good judgement, and should be allowed to manage the Sox.
Chuck - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#264080) #

Adam Lind. Adam Lind. What to say about Adam Lind? He's at once incredibly consistent and incredibily inconsistent.

Here are is OPS+s from 2010 to 2012:
90
95
95

So not good, and consistently so.

Here are his half-season OPS's from 2010 to 2012:
640/807
865/589
674/788

He's spent each of the past 3 seasons being useful half the time and the opposite of useful the other half.

Some might argue that he's now "fixed" or that he's healthy and that any crappy half-seasons are specifically attributable to back woes. Others might argue that he's just a streaky hitter. I am in the camp of preferring to cut bait but I am guessing that the organization (Lind under contract, payroll parameters always looming) might elect to roll the dice yet one more time to see which Lind shows up for the first half of 2013.

Matthew E - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#264082) #
I'm perfectly comfortable with Adam Lind on the team as a pinch hitter and backup 1B/DH. Of course, that assumes that the Jays want a bench and not a nine-man bullpen.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#264083) #
Lind and Rajai Davis are similar issues.  They both have some value as role players, but nothing more.  The problem is that the club has not shown the ability (hampered by the payroll parameters undoubtedly) to use their talents appropriately, and so ends up having Davis as a leadoff hitter against RHPs and Lind as a cleanup hitter against LHPs. 

Whether you want to keep Lind depends on the composition of the bench.  Personally, I'd prefer if the club had a shorter bullpen and had a LH bat like Lind's on the bench and getting some at-bats at DH. 

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#264084) #
Herbal tea to Matthew.  (no one needs the caffeine in Coke at this stage in the season)
Chuck - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#264087) #
I should have cited Lind's LHP/RHP splits from 2010 to 2012:
341/829
639/771
535/803

During last night's broadcast, Alan Ashby said that if Lind has any chance of becoming consistently useful again (or words to that effect), he has to improve against LHP. My reaction to that was ACK!!! There seems to be adequate evidence that Lind cannot hit LHP and the team should not invest any effort in exploring this matter any further. If you want to roll the dice with Lind and make him a platoon DH in 2013, fine, but find a AAAA RH clouter to pair up with him.

But as Mike pointed out, the temptation to use potentially useful part-timers in more extensive roles has proven too much for the organization. And this is why I argued for Davis to be sent packing, because the lure of him as Plan B starter in LF is just too great. And I fear the lure of Lind as fulltime DH is equally as great.
PeterG - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#264090) #
Well, how about Lind and Davis platooning in lf next season?
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#264093) #
Lind at this stage in his career after the back injuries would be very poor defensively in left-field, and doesn't hit enough to make up for it.  He's a DH. 
China fan - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#264094) #
What about Lind and Davis platooning as the DH then?

As mentioned in the other thread, I'm optimistic that AA will spend money to acquire a much better LF next season. But if he acquires a LF and a couple of starting pitchers, he might look internally for the DH.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#264100) #
For the quest for 70 (reached) or a higher draft pick here is the situation...

Jays: 71-89
Tied with: KC Royals

Teams within 1 win: none
Teams within 2 wins: 73 wins (can tie) Mets/Mariners, 69 wins (can tie) Boston

Tiebreakers for draft picks is last years record iirc. So Jays 'win' tiebreaker vs Boston, lose it vs all others. The first 6 slots are out of reach, slot 7 is Bostons, 8 is KC right now, 9 is Toronto, 10 is Seattle/NYM.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#264102) #
For his career, Davis has hit .290/.349/.417 against LHP while playing the outfield.  As he is turning 32 in a couple of weeks and batters normally hit worse as a DH, you'd expect him to hit a little worse than that against LHP in 2013. He does however run well.  I would like to think that you could do better than that for a platoon DH for not much money; the issue again is the organizational preference for long bullpens, and the roster flexibility that Davis brings. 

In the result, if the organization acquired a full-time regular quality left-fielder, along with a second baseman, and at least one good starting pitcher (with Villanueva or a similar counting as a reasonable second), that would be an off-season that signalled an effort to win, and a LInd (or Cooper)/Davis platoon at DH would not be a huge deal.  

Gerry - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#264105) #
Lind has been hitting better recently but he is hitting a lot of singles.  He hit .277 in September but he had 8 extra base hits out of 26 total hits.  His OPS in September was 737.  Those numbers are not good for a 1B/DH.  Perhaps his back issues have impacted his ability to turn on the ball.
damos - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#264106) #
Sadly, Pittsburgh is actually locked into the #9 slot for failing to sign Mark Appel.  Yan Gomes & Co ruined last night's opportunity to secure a Top 10 spot. 
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#264107) #
Well, if KC can have a strong finishing kick and the Mets and Mariners each win one while the Jays lose one of the final two then things are good and the Red Sox are last.
TamRa - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#264130) #
"Lind has been hitting better recently..."

Since being sent off to "re-tool" and returning, Lind has hit .298/.336/.480/.816 (coming into tonight) in 57 games. That might not seem impressive but over a full season that would be .005 behind Mark Texeria for 5th best among AL 1B so it's not shameful.

the HUGE question being, will he ever do that over a full season again.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#264131) #
The thing is that if he does hit .285/.335/.480 over a full season, he is still an average player at best because of his lack of speed or defensive ability.  It aint much of an upside.
John Northey - Tuesday, October 02 2012 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#264133) #
Dang - the Mets lost in extra innings as their manager was determined to find the guy who could lose it for them - used 4 pitchers to get 4 outs, with only the last one who gave up the game winner being allowed to see more than 2 hitters. Weird that he pulled Dickey after 6 with a sub-100 pitch count too given he is a knuckleballer and it is the final start of the year for him and it wasn't to bring in a pinch hitter.

Kansas City won, so they are still tied with the Jays. The Mariners are up 3-0 in the 5th. If the Mariners win, or the Mets or Mariners win tomorrow then the Jays are in that valuable 'top 10' slot I think. Same if KC wins tomorrow and the Jays lose.

Geez does this suck to be 'cheering' for the Jays to finish behind other teams. Ah well, take what you can get.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#264136) #
Seriously, how many chances must Adam Lind be given for people to realize he isn't an everyday player for a contending team?
Chuck - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#264138) #
With no sense of irony, veterans and presumed non-leaders Frasor and Lind, bemoan the lack of veteran leadership on the team. The Oakland Athletics say hello.
Thomas - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#264140) #
To be fair, I would imagine it's hard for a middle reliever or a replacement-level 1B to be a clear clubhouse leader. That being said, the idea that replacing young players with veterans who carry themselves differently off the field is going to fix things is rather silly. As Chuck said, look at the A's.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#264141) #
It is funny that 3 of the guys who should be providing leadership, Vizquel/Frasor/Lind, are the ones complaining about a lack of it. If I was the manager I'd set up a mirror in the office then call them in and tell them 'we did get some vets here - look over there to see them'.

Clearly what is needed, if vets truly are, is to get ones who can play everyday at a high level. Given that is what you want anyways there really isn't much of a conflict. Just find a Kirk Gibson 1988 type (still at all-star level, known to be driven) and off to the races.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#264142) #
How many more players are going to have to speak up before people get that there is a problem? Or do you now think that not only Vizquel, but also Lind, Frasor and Zaun all have ulterior motives?
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#264143) #
Speaking of accountability, I would also like to know why Hill's OPS / OPS+ over the last three years looks like this:

2010 (Jays) : 665 / 77

2011 (Jays) : 584 / 58

2011 (D-Backs) : 878 / 137

2012 (D-Backs): 880 / 130

Because the Jays and D-Backs versions of Aaron Hill are like night and day - two different players. And OPS+ takes into account ballpark factors, so that argument is out the window.
jerjapan - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#264144) #
Well, how about Lind and Davis platooning in lf next season?   I've been suggesting a 2013 Lind / Davis platoon at DH for a month now - Lind's a sunk cost, and Davis will cost an extra 3 million to exercise his option rather than the buyout.  For 3 million, that's a productive combo, assuming a quality LF with a good OBP is added, reducing Farrell's incentive to play either in the field except the odd spot start.  Additionally, you are guaranteed a quality bat on the bench with this formula, and Davis' utility value as a pinch runner is intact against LHP.   Our financial commitment to both players ends at the end of the season, so this seems the ideal short term solution to me.   That said, if we could somehow get Big Papi, I'd do that intstead.
Chuck - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#264145) #

Locker room leadership may well be in absentia, but isn't a more obvious problem more fundamental than that, i.e., a lack of talent? Or are we to believe that certain players would have performed better under the watchful eye of a leader in their ranks? If so, who specifically? Let's take this from the abstract to the concrete or we're just ruminating over dancing angels and heads of pins.

And if I am a veteran who was well compensated for not having done a terribly good job, I'd think I'd keep my yap shut rather than grouse about the problems being something other than my own performance. That speaks to a lack of accountability and a delusional lack of self-awareness.

When a team does poorly, people on the outside look at the situation and conclude "you guys stink". Internally, one imagines that saying "we stink" isn't at the top of the list of explanations, so nebulous excuses, like lack of leadership, are brought to the fore. Clearly we're talented enough, something else must be the cause of our misery.

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#264147) #
Sure, but I think the opposite ideology is also alive and well, namely, the idea that only talent matters, and that leadership and doing the little things right are essentially superfluous. Look, a decent talent level might get you to 87 wins, but better and more consistent execution might get you to 90+ wins and into the playoffs.

Personally, I respect what Vizquel, Frasor and Zaun have to say (even if I don't necessarily agree with all of their comments). They have a lot of combined years of experience with various teams and have seen a lot. When they take it upon themselves to make pointed comments about their team's lack of leadership and professionalism, I think it's worth paying attention.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#264148) #
Is there an issue? Probably. Although I suspect with those 3 the biggest issue is THEY were expected to be the leaders (after Bautista) and they failed at it. Also I bet all 3 expected more playing time. Vizquel has 160 PA, Lind was in AAA for a good part of the season, and Frasor has 0 saves vs 12 holds and 3 blown leads (6 times came into the game in the 9th, just once used in extra innings and he blew the save in that game).

Again, in April/May no one was complaining (team 3 games over 500). Still quiet in June/July (4 games under) but then the team collapsed in August (9-19) and September (10-18). Why did they collapse? Probably had a lot to do with losing Bautista & JPA and having guys they counted on in Rasmus & Johnson & Mathis (although counting on Mathis is a silly thing) fall apart at that point. Of all the kids called up only Cooper really played well.

The guys brought in mid-season?
Happ: 92 ERA+ in 40 IP then hurt
Delabar: 128 ERA+ in 29 IP
Lincoln: 76 ERA+ in 28 IP, although a lot of that was from one game vs Tampa when he was left in way too long (6 runs in 2/3 IP)
Carpenter: non-factor just 2 2/3 IP.

Who was lost?
Snider: 81 OPS+ in Pittsburgh 144 PA
Thames: 95 OPS+ in Seattle 130 PA
Cordero: 22 ERA+ in Houston (11 ER in 5 IP)
Francisco: 77 OPS+ in Houston, 91 in Tampa

So 4 sub-par guys lost, 1 solid reliever plus a guy who has mostly done well and a guy who looked really good starting then got hurt.
Gerry - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#264149) #
AA has received a lot of credit for some of his moves.  But the Aaron Hill/Kelly Johnson trade might be his worst.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#264151) #
I notice that some of the teams that traded "talent" to the Jays (St. Louis / Rasmus, Atlanta / Escobar) have secured wild card spots, while another (Milwaukee / Lawrie) won 83 games and was on the margins of contention late in the season (despite the absence of Prince Fielder).
Dewey - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#264153) #
There’s an interesting and thoughtful piece in today’s Globe (for a change) on “the Escobar business”.  It’s written by a Cuban-Canadian novelist named Jose Latour.  Worth a read.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/yunel-escobars-slur-didnt-come-from-left-field/article4582951/




Oceanbound - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#264158) #
So Lind says that not worrying about walking and being more aggressive at the plate is what he should be doing.

Well, I never. The problem with this team is that it's actually not aggressive enough! That's gone and blown my mind!
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#264159) #
I read the Latour article in the Globe and Mail.  Saying that Escobar arrived in America from Cuba at age 20 and he is now 29, so he should therefore be considered 9 years old for this purpose (social awareness), doesn't make any sense.  It is undoubtedly the case that homophobic attitudes were prevalent in Cuba for many years and they may have played a role in Escobar's actions, but treating him as a 9 year old is not a constructive way to look at the situation. 
Spifficus - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#264164) #
I'll second that, Dewey. It was definitely a worthwhile read, and thanks for pointing it out.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#264167) #
I'd say that Escobar is actually less than 9 years old, since he's never learned the language and his surrounding "culture" has gone from "homophobic Cuba" to "homophobic sports lockerroom".
Dewey - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#264189) #
I read the Latour article in the Globe and Mail.  Saying that Escobar arrived in America from Cuba at age 20 and he is now 29, so he should therefore be considered 9 years old for this purpose (social awareness), doesn't make any sense. . . . treating him as a 9 year old is not a constructive way to look at the situation. 


I’m surprised by your comment, Mike.  It seems uncharacteristically ungenerous. Reducing Mr. Latour’s essay to that is quite unfair to the essay.  Why dismiss it so cavalierly?
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#264192) #
I think Mr. Letour was asking for a little understanding, moreso than forgiveness. But the mob wants a lynching, and a lynching they shall have.
Chuck - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#264197) #
Craig Kimbrel did it. 231 batters faced. 116 strikeouts. 50.2%. Crazy.
TamRa - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#264201) #
AA has received a lot of credit for some of his moves.  But the Aaron Hill/Kelly Johnson trade might be his worst.

Indeed. Even though it was almost universally praised among Jays fans on the internet here and elsewhere.

I remember many exchanges last season in which uglyone, for instance, marshalled all sorts of statistical evidences that Johnson was one of the better options in baseball and Hill possibly didn't even deserve to be in the majors but surely not as a starter.

I disagreed, but the stats were not on my side and i take no credit for having seen this turn of events coming. Yet another case of "yanevaknow"


TamRa - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#264202) #
I notice that some of the teams that traded "talent" to the Jays (St. Louis / Rasmus, Atlanta / Escobar) have secured wild card spots,

With what contributions from players obtained from Toronto?;


Mike Green - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#264203) #
Dewey, I have no difficulty with forgiveness for Escobar, who is pretty clearly immature.  The one-dimensional logic  in Latour's article, though, leads to justification for horrors such as honour killing.  Escobar's misguided joke/insult isn't the same thing, but it makes me bristle when it is suggested that adults ought to be considered as children because they came from another country and can be expected to reflect the mores of the place that they came from.  Just as one cannot ignore the cultural background of an adult, one ought not to say that an adult is trapped by it. 
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#264205) #
I don't think the Hill trade was necessarily a bad one (although it would have been nice to have some intel that Johnson would accept arbitration, since he was clearly acquired to garner draft picks).

My issue is, why was he underperforming so badly and for so long prior to the trade? It could just be a change of scenery, but Hill has literally exploded since arriving in Arizona. I have no way of knowing if there was a coaching failure in Toronto, but I do wonder. The hitting coach in AZ, Don Baylor, did praise Hill for being "a model student."
TamRa - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#264206) #
The thing is that if he does hit .285/.335/.480 over a full season, he is still an average player at best because of his lack of speed or defensive ability.  It aint much of an upside.

No, but conversely, there are not a huge number of players at his position who are markedly better than that. Account for the lack of defensive ability and consider him a full time DH.

How many DH with at least 400 PA had an OPS over .815 in 2012?

TWO.

David Ortiz - .882
Chris Davis - .833
Adam Dunn - .800

And none of the decent hitting DH are speedy in any sense of the word either.


Seriously, how many chances must Adam Lind be given for people to realize he isn't an everyday player for a contending team?

I don't see anyone contending he is a good EVERY DAY player, because he can't hit lefties. That said, most of us would be fairly happy with Shin-Soo Choo in LF and he can't hit lefties very well either. A LOT of "everyday" guys (by perception) are below average vs LHP.

Also, no one here is arguing any longer that DH is not a position to target for an upgrade, but again - look at the list of available replacements and note for us, other than ortiz, where's the shining knight who's going to step in and do a LOT better than roughly .800 OPS;/

it's not for me about how good Lind is or isn't so much as about where the better choice comes from.


Though to be perfectly clear, everything I said in this post is based on the hypothesis "IF Lind could hit .815 over a full season then..."

it is NOT a claim that I'm confident he would actually do so.

James W - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#264207) #
Edwin Jackson as a starter, Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski out of the bullpen all have championship rings from 2011.

This season, Rzepczynski is still in the Cardinals bullpen, but has had a mediocre year. You could point out the old "addition by subtraction", but it's been 1.5 and 2.5 years respectively on those trades.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#264208) #
With what contributions from players obtained from Toronto?;

Point taken, although with St. Louis the trade was in large part an "all in" transaction aimed at a postseason run (which turned out sort of OK). Plus, sometimes it's a case of addition by subtraction;)

Jon Jay: 305/373/400, OPS+ 113, BRef WAR 3.2, fangraphs WAR 4.2

Colby Rasmus: 223/289/400, OPS+ 84, BRef WAR 1.2, fangraphs WAR 1.3
Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#264213) #
although it would have been nice to have some intel that Johnson would accept arbitration, since he was clearly acquired to garner draft picks

Given the season Johnson was having in Arizona, no one should have been surprised that he'd accept arbitration - how many teams would pay him $6+ million after hitting .209? For that matter, there was the possibility until fairly late in the season (or after it?) that he'd be a Type A, which would have guaranteed he'd accept arb, since no one would give up a draft pick for him.

I don't think he was acquired to turn into picks at all, though the Jays certainly would have accepted that result. It was a challenge trade - the Jays traded their underachieving 2b for Arizona's underachieving 2b.
Parker - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#264214) #
If we're supposed to accept that Escobar didn't know what he was doing was wrong, then we should probably be thankful he has managed to go this long without saying or doing something even stupider and more inflammatory.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#264215) #
I'd say that Escobar is actually less than 9 years old, since he's never learned the language

As I understand it, Escobar does speak English. He just doesn't do interviews in it.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#264216) #
Ryan, if it was a challenge trade, then why didn't AA negotiate a two- or three-year deal with KJ before the season instead of overpaying for one arb year? And why did he publicly muse about using him in LF while Johnson was still deciding whether to accept arbitration?

AA was undoubtedly aware that there weren't many second basemen available on the free agent market last off-season. I think his order of preference was as follows: (a) KJ is Type A, declines arb = two draft picks; (b) KJ is Type B, declines arb = one supplemental round pick, or (c) accepts arb, tolerable stopgap option for a year.

I also seem to recall Kevin Towers commenting at the time that AA was interested in the potential draft compensation.
TamRa - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#264218) #
Edwin Jackson as a starter, Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski out of the bullpen all have championship rings from 2011.

Obviously not relevant to the 2012 playoffs.

I agree that Jay gave them more than Rasmus gave us - but that is not the equation since, absent the deal, Rasmus might well be their 4th outfielder (even theoretically in the minors) while Jays did what he did.

Dewey - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#264219) #
I don’t care whether people “forgive” Escobar or not, really.  In this entire matter what disturbs me is the over-reaction, the intolerant certitude of the ‘string him up’  mob.   Yes *taken to its logical extreme*  to condone E’s action is pernicious.  Nobody, however,  (certainly not Mr. Latour) is recommending that.  And Escobar is not at all a representative “adult”, of his own culture or of ours:  he’s been ‘a special case’ for years, ever since some scout singled him out for possible stardom.   Remember Alex Rios and his toy airplane that he liked to fly in The Dome?  Many of these players are kids, loose kids.  I see a bit of this now in Sierra as well.   I’m in agreement with you about people who come from another country having to adapt to our culture.   But these guys aren’t like most such people:  they’ve lived in a privileged bubble for years.  I’m not suggesting we say, “Oh, that’s just Manny/Esco/Alex being Manny etc.” and overlook it.  But I am saying we shouldn’t haul up the heavy artillery and start making comparisons with the vile Sheperd murder in Wyoming and so on.  (Or draw comparisons with “horrors such as honour killings”.) 

One of the unfortunate features of our internet age is that discussions so quickly become polarized.  We’re almost forced to start shouting just to make a point.  It’s often assumed, it seems, that there are only two positions one can take.  And if you’re not with us you’re against us.  What used to be called subtlety (now, I think, it’s called “nuance”) was once sought for in argumentation.  Context counted for much.  Now, however, things are presented as quite clear-cut;  black and white;  us against them.  Doctrinaire partisanship is the norm.  Perspective gets lost.  Hell, common sense gets lost.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#264222) #
Obviously not relevant to the 2012 playoffs.

Relevant in the sense that St. Louis obtained useful pieces to put them over the top in 2011, apparently without giving up much of value or in any way impeding their playoff chances in 2012. Pretty good trade.
jerjapan - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#264229) #
I think Mr. Letour was asking for a little understanding, moreso than forgiveness. But the mob wants a lynching, and a lynching they shall have.   Who is this mob that wants a lynching?  This is the straw man fallacy, flat out.  Pretty much all of the commentary I've read (generally, the Toronto Star and the various Jays blogs) has approached the subject from a fair-minded vantage point.  Rather than 'shouting down' alternative view points, I feel those that have expressed criticisms of Escobar's behaviour have been remarkably understanding about his moment of bigoted ignorance.   
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#264233) #
Well said, Dewey.
TamRa - Wednesday, October 03 2012 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#264238) #
Relevant in the sense that St. Louis obtained useful pieces to put them over the top in 2011, apparently without giving up much of value or in any way impeding their playoff chances in 2012. Pretty good trade.

Not relevant to my initial response to your comment (what contributions did the teams get from players obtained from the Blue Jays?")
greenfrog - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#264244) #
Better personnel decisions / player evaluations = better teams. St. Louis won a WS at least in part because of the Rasmus trade (which was clearly aimed primarily at a 2011 run). They then installed Jay in CF and are back in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Jays finished 73-89, with the underperforming Rasmus contributing just over 1 WAR. Just sayin'.
Moe - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#264254) #
Better personnel decisions / player evaluations = better teams. St. Louis won a WS at least in part because of the Rasmus trade (which was clearly aimed primarily at a 2011 run). They then installed Jay in CF and are back in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Jays finished 73-89, with the underperforming Rasmus contributing just over 1 WAR. Just sayin'.

That means STL made a good trade but it doesn't mean the Jays made a bad one.

The players they gave up didn't amount to much this year and Rasmus may develop into something. He might not, in which case we will look at that trade in a few years and say "meah". It's not like the Jays gave up Jay to get Rasmus, STL was willing to part with Rasmus because of the spare parts they got back for 2011 and because they knew they had a decent replacement. I doubt they expected it to work out this well.

 
BlueJayWay - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#264260) #
It also should be said that St. Louis made the playoffs last year only after Atlanta collapsed huge, and this year their 88 wins doesn't get them either wildcard spot in the AL.  You put that team in the American League and they're likely not a playoff team last year or this.
bpoz - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#264263) #
I think St Louis sold high with Rasmus. He had personality clashes in St Louis. So far in Toronto he has been hot & cold. If you want to win , can you afford to endure the cold streaks & for how long. My guess is that he would have not have been good enough to keep his job in St Louis. So they would have moved him eventually.

So if you move a high potential young player when he is still considered as such then you should expect a big haul. If they did not make the playoffs in 2011 then the trade is worth complaining about. For me there is still the value of the draft picks that E Jackson & Dotel should have provided. I believe St Louis got some picks for them.
greenfrog - Thursday, October 04 2012 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#264265) #
Thanks, bpoz, good point about the draft picks - definitely a factor in assessing the trade.

Also a good point about the relatively weak division that St. Louis plays in.

I'm not sure I would call Rasmus hot and cold, exactly, unless you call half a season of horrible play (the second half of both 2011 and 2012) a mere cold streak.
bpoz - Friday, October 05 2012 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#264327) #
I give everyone a 2nd chance, sometimes more than once. So Romero gets a 2nd chance, also Rasmus, Alvarez, Escobar. That is just my way. Successes have been S Downs, J Werth and a few others.

So a role in the pen or part time position is found for some players. So for me Rasmus gets a regular position in 2013 and it is his to lose. But Lind gets no more 2nd chances as a regular, just a part time spot with the opportunity for his performance to earn him more playing time.

TamRa - Friday, October 05 2012 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#264340) #
Better personnel decisions / player evaluations = better teams.

Even if so - not relevant to my SPECIFIC reply.


greenfrog - Saturday, October 06 2012 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#264347) #
Well, Rzepczynski just contributed a third of an inning to St. Louis's win in the wild card game (giving St. Louis its ninth playoff appearance in the last 20 years). That's a specific contribution.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 16 2012 @ 05:53 AM EDT (#264514) #
Recent Jim Bowden tweet:

"John Mozeliak told me 3 Spring Trainings ago in Jupiter, FL that he ranked his young OF bats 1. Craig 2 . Jay 3. Rasmus #gettingitright"

https://twitter.com/JimBowdenESPNxm
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