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A 4-0 record by the affiliates is a good way to start the week as the Dominican Summer League Blue Jays begin another season.

Buffalo 10 Norfolk 5

Norfolk, VA The Herd rolled over the tide quickly in this one. Josh Thole spanked a two-run homer off Jake Arrieta in the first inning and plated another in the third on a groundout. Eugenio Velez drove in two runs in the third and fourth innings with a ground-rule double and a single respectively. Mike Nickeas contributed a two-run double in the fourth. Mauro Gomez went deep for a solo shot in the fifth off Arietta and added a two-run bomb in the seventh off former Jay Mark Hendrickson. Velez led the hit parade with three and also stole a base. Thole, Gomez, Nickeas and Jim Negrych had two apiece. Thole is only hitting .331 and Negrych is at .358 now with a .273 mark in his last 10 games. Some folks would have you believe they are not deserving of call-ups! Ricardo Nanita singled and walked while Ryan Goins was 1-for-4. Andy LaRoche and Ryan Langerhans were both 0-for-4.

Claudio Vargas
(4-5) kept the Orioles affiliate in check to two runs (one earned) on three hits and three walks over five frames. He served up a Zelous Wheeler home run ball, struck out one and induced seven outs on the ground. Bobby Korecky was also victimized by a Wheeler dinger among his two runs over 2 2/3 frames. The damage was done on five hits and two walks and he only struck out one. Joel Carreno could not avoid a house call from Dr. Longball either as Jason Pridie put one over the wall but he surpassed Vargas' and Korecky's strikeout totals by striking out the side in the ninth.

Dunedin 3 Charlotte 0

Dunedin, FL Scott Copeland (6-1) put up six goose eggs on the linescore by scattering four hits, three walks and a hit by pitch. He racked up five strikeouts and 10 groundball outs. Shawn Griffith put up two scoreless frames with a single walk being his only blemish. Ajay Meyer overcame three singles with two punchouts in a shutout ninth for his second save.

Shane Opitz plated the first run with a two-out single but was denied a second RBI when Michael Crouse was thrown out at home in the fourth inning. Dunedin added two more insurance runs in the fifth with a Gabe Jacobo single and a K.C. Hobson double. Jon Berti had three hits and stole a base. Jacobo singled twice and drew a walk. Hobson doubled twice, Crouse doubled and singled and Opitz singled twice. Peter Mooney singled and walked. Nick Baligod doubled in five at-bats. Matt Newman and Chris Schaeffer both had 0-for-4 nights.

Lansing 2 Great Lakes 1

Midland, MI Southpaw Daniel Norris had a WHIP of one in his five innings of work by allowing one run on two hits and three walks. He had just two K's but seven of his 10 outs in play did not escape the infield. Kramer Champlin struck out two of the three batters he faced in a perfect sixth. Ian Kadish (1-2) allowed a hit and a walk but struck out two over two scoreless frames. Arik Sikula struck out two in a perfect ninth for his seventh save.

The Lugnuts tied the game on a Kevin Patterson blast to right field in the seventh inning. They grabbed the lead for good on a Jorge Flores fielder's choice in the eighth. Patterson had two of Lansing's five hits. Chris Hawkins singled and walked, Carlos Ramirez doubled and Jorge Flores had a base hit and stole a base. Dwight Smith Jr., Kellen Sweeney and Dalton Pompey all heard ball four once. Sweeney entered the game as a defensive replacement at third for Gustavo Pierre, who went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. Christian Lopes went 0-for-4 and Aaron Munoz was 0-for-3.

DSL Blue Jays 8 DSL Braves 5

San Pedro de Macoris, DR
The Jays scored a converted touchdown before the Braves responded. An Andres De Aza sacrifice fly opened the scoring in the first inning. Dean Bell singled home the next run in the second before a five-run explosion in the fourth. The rally began and ended with bases-loaded walks by Richard Urena and Juan Tejada with a Michael De La Cruz two-run single and a De Aza RBI single in between. De La Cruz singled home one more run in the fifth. De La Cruz had three hits and a walk. Bell had two knocks and a walk. Deiferson Barreto, Ronniel Demorizi, Javier Hernandez and De Aza were also in the two-hit club with Barreto getting the only extra-base hit, a double. Urena singled and walked. Leudy Garcia struck out three times and went 0-for-5.

Miguel Castro began his season on the right foot with three shutout innings, giving up just two hits and a walk while striking out five. Dalton Rodriguez (1-0) got the win despite four runs scoring in his two innings. However, three of them were unearned as the Jays committed three errors with a passed ball in the mix. Rodriguez allowed four hits, issued three walks and struck out two. Yonardo Herdenez survived two walks to pitch a scoreless inning. Lefty Wilfri Aleton also overcame two walks but pitched two scoreless frames. Greylor Conde yielded a run on two hits and two walks and struck out one in the ninth.

From Saturday...

DSL Blue Jays 5 DSL Braves 3

San Pedro de Macoris, DR In the DSL season opener, every Jays batter reached base once and seven recorded hits. Richard Urena and Ronniel Demorizi doubled and walked. Deiferson Barreto, Juan Tejada and Dean Bell singled and walked and Barreto took one for the team to reach base thrice. Juan Kelly drew two free passes. Javier Hernandez walked and had a sacrifice fly. Michael De La Cruz and Leudy Garcia also joined the hit parade and Garcia was also plunked by a pitch. De La Cruz and Demorizi also stole a base each.

Francisco Rios went the first three innings and surrendered two runs on three hits, a walk and a hit by pitch but struck out five. Francis Eduardo was victimized by an unearned run on a De La Cruz passed ball over three frames, scattering three hits with one strikeout. Lefthander Miguel Burgos (1-0) prevented two hits and a walk from scoring over his two shutout innings. Jhonny Hernandez struck out one in the ninth for the save.


*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Daniel Norris, Lansing
Just four runs allowed over his last 17 innings with a K-BB total of 25-11.

2. Josh Thole, Buffalo
Three multi-hit games in a row and is hitting .415 with runners on base.

1. Scott Copeland, Dunedin
Has a streak of five quality starts in a row and a groundout/airout ratio of 2.66

Tuesday's Probable Starters...

DSL Blue Jays TBA vs. DSL Yankees1, 10:30 am ET.
Dunedin Jesse Hernandez (4-4, 2.60) vs. Charlotte, 6:30 pm ET.
Buffalo Thad Weber (0-0, 0.00) vs. Lehigh Valley, 7:05 pm ET.
New Hampshire Marcus Stroman (1-1, 8.10) @ Akron, 7:05 pm ET.
Thole Cow! A Perfect Night On The Farm! | 57 comments | Create New Account
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Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 06:13 AM EDT (#273153) #
Jim Negrych for Jake Arrieta - who says no?
mathesond - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#273155) #
Baltimore? (If only for Arrieta's pedigree)
John Northey - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#273156) #
Doubt Baltimore would go for that as Negrych was a minor league free agent last winter and is limited to 2B where Baltimore is a mess until Brian Roberts returns in 3-6 weeks.  Generally teams won't give up much for a short term stopgap.  Bet both Negrych and the Orioles regret not getting together last winter.

Arrieta has a 78 ERA+ in the majors, 1.2 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 over 353 IP.  He is 27 this year and his career is moving into the 'flop' category.  Former top 100 prospect pre 2009 and 2010 he just hasn't done much.  His K/9 rate dropped in AAA this year too. 

Really, both now are landing into the AAAA category.  Useful to have around but not worth much in trade.  Arrieta has a much stronger pedigree than Negrych but right now neither jumps out.  Might be a good idea in some respects for both teams though given the Jays won't use Negrych and the O's need someone while the Jays need pitching up the wazoo. 
Thomas - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#273157) #
Mike Green.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#273158) #
Thanks, Thomas.  If the club really thinks that Negrych is a replacement level ballplayer, they should go ahead and do something like that.  Anyways, I like Arrieta in general quite a bit but I would be worried by the fact that he hasn't been striking out anybody over the last month; if his velocity is down, you might want to stay away for other reasons.
zeppelinkm - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#273161) #
Free Josh Thole?

Please? With a cherry on top.. ?
eudaimon - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#273162) #
I'm hoping AA trades Arencibia to some catcher-needy team, maybe for prospects. I find it hard to believe that a guy who seems to value intangibles doesn't notice how poor he is at the art of catching
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#273163) #
Every day I wake up and I hope this is the day Arencibia is off the team.

stevieboy22 - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#273164) #
"Bet both Negrych and the Orioles regret not getting together last winter."

That's what stinks about being a minor league free agent, you can go to a team that needs your position and mash in the minors and still not get the call...

Andy LaRoche probably feels a little bummed out right now...


On another note, time bring up Thole.... Arencibia is not a good enough catcher to be guaranteed all these at bats....
Four Seamer - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#273165) #
He's not a good enough hitter to be guaranteed all these at-bats, let alone a good enough catcher.  It's hard to justify the emotional investment required to be a fan of a team that makes such mind-boggling personnel decisions.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#273166) #
Are there any scouting reports on Thole's defence so far in 2013?
China fan - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#273169) #
"....It's hard to justify the emotional investment required to be a fan of a team that makes such mind-boggling personnel decisions...."

Wow. Please feel free to support the Yankees or any other perfectly managed sports team. If you need both "emotional investment" and mistake-free personnel decisions in order to follow a baseball team, it's a wonder that you enjoy any spectator sports at all....
hypobole - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#273170) #
CF - there is a difference between mistake-free and mind-boggling. I was around for the Harold Ballard years - one of the true epitomes of mis-management. I didn't switch allegiances, I simply lost interest in watching hockey.

I'm not saying the Jays are anywhere close to that level of incompetence. But as good as AA was at breaking down a team that was mired in mediocrity, there are some fundamental issues with the way he's approached building a winning ballclub.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#273174) #
CF. The contortions we have been witnessing from some on this board for the past two months are a product of two facts: 1) AA's offseason moves were almost universally supported by the posters here (including me), and b) those moves have failed outright.

Rather than admit that we were all wrong (so far), instead we are discussing Thole vs. Arencibia and Neygrich vs. Bonifacio as if these determination would make some sort of material difference to the team's fortunes. IMO, disgust over massive collective underperformance from Dickey, Morrow, Johnson, Romero, Buehrle, Lawrie, Izturis, and Bonifacio is masquerading as disenchantment with relatively minor personel moves.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#273177) #
I opposed the Dickey trade.  My major concern was that I felt that Arencibia was an inadequate defensive catcher and that this could reasonably affect the performance of the pitchers.  I wanted the club to hold on to d'Arnaud for that reason.  To see the club to continue to hold to the "Arencibia is a capable everyday catcher" line now in the face of the obvious visual and statistical evidence and in the presence of a perfectly viable alternative is, indeed, very frustrating. 

Chuck - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#273178) #
IMO, disgust over massive collective underperformance from Dickey, Morrow, Johnson, Romero, Buehrle, Lawrie, Izturis, and Bonifacio is masquerading as disenchantment with relatively minor personel moves.

I agree that the Thole/Arencibia and Negrych/Bonifacio debates are, ultimately, much ado about not a whole lot, but it is understandable why posters would engage in those debates. Those are decisions that are at least in the team's control. The much, much bigger issues, and the true reason for this team's failings -- all the front line players you cited who are playing poorly -- are out of the team's control to do anything about. You can't just make those guys play better. So, I think it is therefore inevitable for fans to focus on what the team can control, even if that doesn't amount to very much.
jerjapan - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#273184) #
Chuck and Beyonder, you guys nailed it.  Thole and Negrych aside, I actually assume that all the roster yo-yoing has been to protect the pitching staff, allowing Gibbons to pull a starter when needed knowing that an innings sponge remains ready nearly every day.  Not that this strategy has protected the health of the starters, but I think our pen would be in worse shape without these endless moves. 
hypobole - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#273186) #
FWIW, I was a fan of the Dickey trade - once the Miami trade was done, it made perfect sense. I was never a Johnson fan - he was too injury prone. I knew little of Bonifacio and I did like the acquisitions of Buehrle and Reyes.

The Walker hire bothered me at the time, but I knew about as much about him then as I know now. What I knew then was he was Walton's understudy and I was no fan of Walton. What I know now is that he certainly hasn't been effective in helping any of our starters, with the exception of Happ, pitch anywhere close to their past effectiveness. And even Happs mediocre results only looked good by comparison.

I won't even get into biomechanics, other than it looks like elements in the organization are still fans of the House theories which helps make some sense of the number of disastrous pitching injuries the Jays org has suffered.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#273187) #
That's a reasonable view, hypobole.  It is possible though to attribute the failures in the rotation (in part, of course) to both the development staff/pitching coach and the catcher. 
China fan - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#273188) #
"....disgust over massive collective underperformance from Dickey, Morrow, Johnson, Romero, Buehrle, Lawrie, Izturis, and Bonifacio is masquerading as disenchantment with relatively minor personel moves...."

That's an excellent point. If nobody had expected much from the 2013 season, the anger and disenchantment wouldn't be so great today. It's the psychology of excessive expectations. Politically, the same thing happens in many countries when a charismatic new leader sweeps to power and fails to produce the speedy results that his followers had unrealistically expected, or when a revolution topples a dictator and the new leader fails to solve all the problems of the people. Disillusion is all the greater when the long-suffering masses are mesmerized by irrationally over-optimistic predictions -- like a prosperous economy, or a World Series in 2013.

What about our own part in this scenario? Was there such a clamor for contention (after two decades of failure) that Anthopoulos was stampeded into unwise and premature acquisitions? A fair subject for debate, perhaps.

Another question is the nature of fandom. For some of us, there's an emotional attachment to a team, which can lead to fits of temper and outrage when things go badly. For others among us, it's perhaps a more intellectual pursuit, where we're curious to see the outcome of our favorite team's season with a somewhat detached perspective. Either approach is valid. But I'm still surprised to learn that some fans would give up on the Jays because the GM sees Arencibia as a more useful major-leaguer than Thole. Whether you agree or disagree on JPA's starting role, it seems to me that there are two arguable sides to the question, and it's not so blatantly open-and-shut that it warrants abandoning the team.
Beyonder - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#273191) #
"It is possible though to attribute the failures in the rotation (in part, of course) to both the development staff/pitching coach and the catcher."

Well it's tough to blame the catcher when three of the underperformers had either the same catcher they had in previous strong years (Morrow, Romero), or their own personal catcher (Dickey).
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#273193) #
It appears that Arencibia has regressed defensively this year in a number of ways.  Some have suggested that the departure of Wakamatsu played a role.  It should be noted that prior to this year, the team RA with Arencibia has been higher than team RA every year. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#273194) #
I think it's too early to count the Dickey trade as a bust.

On the other hand, passing on Darvish (who cost zero prospects and zero draft picks), is looking like a clear mistake.
sam - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#273196) #
As does passing on Aroldis Chapman in my opinion.  The frustration was palpable in these parts when both were passed over.
Impossibles - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#273197) #
I really don't get the amount of scorn directed at JPA.

Yes, he is below average, but how much below average? He's making near base salary, his defensive runs saved are in the bottom half of the league, but he is above Posey and Weiters this year (not saying he actually is better, just pointing out the facts).

So, if he's replaced with Thole, at best, isn't Thole average? So he'll add a win or a win and a half maximum for the season? Is that going to make or break the season? How certain is it that Thole would be an upgrade? He's not a top prospect, and he has already posted a 78 +wRC in 700+ PAs.

Why does one guy always have to get piled on by the internet fanatics?
Thomas - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#273198) #

Was there such a clamor for contention (after two decades of failure) that Anthopoulos was stampeded into unwise and premature acquisitions? A fair subject for debate, perhaps.

Clamour or not, a GM should make acquisitions with a view to creating the most optimal chance of success in the forseeable future. For some organizations, like Houston, that involves a complete rebuiding to an almost unprecedented degree. For other teams, like Atlanta, it means seizing a five-tool player placed on the trading block for a below market rate and dipping into the free agent pool. For other teams, like Oakland, it involves both trading away established major leaguers while simultaneously dipping into the international free agent market. If Anthopolous made "unwise and premature acquisitions" because of fan pressure and recognized this at the time, that is absolutely a black mark against him and I would argue grounds for him to be fired. If these acquistions were unwise and premature and Anthopolous didn't recognize this, it raises questions about his evaluative skills and process and why he misjudged the players he acquired or the strength of the team as constituted.

 But I'm still surprised to learn that some fans would give up on the Jays because the GM sees Arencibia as a more useful major-leaguer than Thole.

I don't think you should frame the debate as Arencibia against Thole. There may be a debate over Arencibia vs. Thole as to who should be this team's starting catcher that would be relevant if Thole was the backup on this team. However, right now the debate is whether Thole or Blanco deserves a spot on the 25-man roster. You've defended the Blanco move before, but none of your explanations have convinced me (not because I think you've articulated them poorly, but just because the rationale isn't convincing) and the performance of Thole and Blanco as the year progresses continues to reinforce that point.

So, if he's replaced with Thole, at best, isn't Thole average? So he'll add a win or a win and a half maximum for the season? Is that going to make or break the season?

Chuck explained this when he said that this decision was "at least in the team's control." Nobody is pretending that the Jays would be in that much a better position with Thole playing everyday (although I think you can quibble with the win or win and a half figure depending on how you evaluate JP's defence). However, if you haven't given up hope of the Jays making the playoffs (although many of us have), I think the most optimistic scenario at this point has them squeeking into the second wildcard by a game or two. And, in that sense, this move may absolutely matter. But, even moreso, the continued presence of Blanco on the roster and Thole in the minors raises real questions about the front office's method of player evaluations and making decisions if they refuse to or cannot recognize Thole is the superior player or, alternatively, do recognize this but keep Blanco around for some reason anyway.

TtD - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#273199) #
Blanco is only around because they wanted Thole to play everyday in AAA, he is seen as something of value and they want him playing regularly to recover after his concussion hit 2012 season.  As filler, Blanco is pretty useless, but he fills a role that would be wasting Thole (backup catcher).  The arguement should only ever be Thole vs Arencibia, as neither should be in the backup role.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#273201) #
Jake Arrieta?

man we really hold on to the value of other team's busted prospects far, far longer than our own.
Wildrose - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#273203) #
Why does one guy always have to get piled on by the internet fanatics.

Amen. I think he's replaced Adam Lind as this blogs favorite whipping boy, although Lind has fought his way back into the good graces.

Fans are a volatile lot, and this has been an extremely disappointing campaign. I guess it's human nature to try to blame someone be it either in management or on the playing roster. I thought Chuck and Beyonders comments were full of incite.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#273204) #
Thole has over 1000 MLB plate appearances, and around 1800 MiLB plate appearances. Right about exactly the same amounts as JPA.

He's past the time where he needs to "play everyday". He's a plus as a backup catcher, and currently we probably have the worst backup catcher in all of baseball.

IMO JPA and Thole are both good kinda-young catchers with a chance to be solid starting or very good backup catchers in this league, and should be in a daily battle for playing time. Using them well situationally could easily give us well above average production from our catcher spot. And having one or the other as a bench bat instead of Blanco is an obvious plus as well.

I personally don't see how JPA has any more of a claim on our starting catcher spot than Thole does. The've been remarkable similar in overall effectiveness throughout their pro careers.


JPA (24-27): 1105pa, .223avg, .270obp, .437slg, .707ops, .304woba, 88wRC+, -16.1fld, -5.5bsr, +1.9war
Thole (22-25): 1026pa, .261avg, .331obp, .333slg, .664ops, .295woba, 85wRC+, -4.6fld, -6.8bsr, +2.2war


JPA (23-24): 959pa, .267avg, .320obp, 530slg, .850ops, .363woba, 113wRC+
Thole (23-26): 359pa, .295avg, .369obp, .470slg, .839ops, .373woba, 129wRC+


JPA (22): 275pa, .282avg, .302obp, 496slg, .798ops, .348woba, 109wRC+
Thole (22): 442pa, .328avg, .395obp, .422slg, .816ops, .372woba, 129wRC+
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#273206) #

If we give into the short-sighted demands of a slightly demented few to trade J.P. Arencibia (who is healthy this year) just to call up Josh Thole, we have a problem.    If you are lazy don't read any further.   Who replaces Thole and each Catcher you name (do the work please).   Most of those will not be ready for their new jobs.   But then people who aren't in the business, usually don't care.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#273207) #
In his career, JPA is .216/.268/.432 against RHP.  He is a below average (in my view, way below average) defender.  I am confident that Thole can do better than that, and likely considerably better than that.  You wouldn't do a strict platoon because Thole would catch Dickey, but you want to make sure that Arencibia gets well over half his PAs against LHP and Thole gets 85% of his PAs against RHP.   I don't see what the big issue is with a Whitt/Martinez arrangement. 
sam - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#273208) #
Hey!  I've been on the Arencibia is a bum tip well before this year's failings
smcs - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#273209) #
Amen. I think he's replaced Adam Lind as this blogs favorite whipping boy, although Lind has fought his way back into the good graces.

To be fair, we had been pointing out for years that Adam Lind should be nailed to the bench when a lefty is on the mound, and that is finally happening this year.
Dewey - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#273215) #
. . . Chuck and Beyonders comments were full of incite. . . .

Yah, those two are always stirring things up.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#273217) #
2 of the 3 finalists for the NCAA Golden Spikes award are Kris Bryant and Tyler Beede. Bryant is expected to go top 3 in this years draft. If Beede follows up with another dominant season, he could well be top 3 in next years draft.

This got me wondering - has any team ever drafted, but failed to sign, consecutive top 3 picks?
Thomas - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#273218) #
Who replaces Thole and each Catcher you name (do the work please). Most of those will not be ready for their new jobs. But then people who aren't in the business, usually don't care.

This shouldn't be a problem. If the Jays dealt Arencibia or Blanco was demoted and elected free agency, the Jays could make Mike Nickeas the everyday catcher at Buffalo. Assuming the team couldn't trade for non-prospect catcher with another team's Double or Triple-A franchise and make them the catcher (which isn't that hard to do), the Jays currently have Ochinko and Murphy at New Hampshire and seven catchers either on the active roster or the 7-day DL at Dunedin and Lansing. I think they'd want to leave Ochinko to take most of the at-bats for the Fisher Cats and if the club didn't want to promote Murphy either, they could promote a non-prospect from Dunedin like Chris Shaeffer to serve as a backup at Buffalo for a short period. Alternatively, the club could let Murphy serve as the backup for Buffalo and promote someone like Shaeffer to be the second choice for New Hampshire. An advantage for clubs of having so many levels of minor leagues comes in these sorts of situations where the club needs to find a warm body without disturbing the players who have some semblance of prospect status.

Wildrose - Tuesday, June 04 2013 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#273220) #
"Yah, those two are always stirring things up."

Yes, I need to stop posting quickly at work on my I-Pad.
robertdudek - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 01:25 AM EDT (#273241) #
The failure to have Thole up here at least sharing the job with Arencibia is the clearest sign of management incompetence I can see.
robertdudek - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 01:30 AM EDT (#273242) #
You put the Cardinals defense behind our starters and you can probably subtract 1 to 1.5 runs per 9 IP. Yes I really believe the defense has been that bad.
TamRa - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 04:44 AM EDT (#273244) #
RE catching depth: the O's just DFA'd Chris Snyder.

Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 05:38 AM EDT (#273245) #
Arencibia bobblehead day is July 7. (In related news, Bremner Brian sees his shadow and predicts five more weeks of grumbling)

I wouldn't trade Negrych for Arrieta, but it seems like a natural fit - Toronto needs pitching and overvalues raw talent, and Baltimore needs a quick fix at second base.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 06:27 AM EDT (#273246) #
Depending on his defense Chris Snyder would be tempting.  Lifetime 85 OPS+, twice cracked 100 last in 2011, 1000+ OPS in AAA (86 PA) this year.  Not great, but better than our current backup and if he could be shuffled to AAA then you could call up Thole and send Snyder to AAA and Blanco to wherever old catchers go.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#273247) #
Arencibia bobblehead day is July 7.

It should be his glove that bobbles.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#273264) #
I wouldn't move JP.

JP or Thole on their own is subpar. Used smartly together and we would likely cobble together at least average catching and potentially more than that.

I do find it funny that many of the biggest JP haters are also the same guys who still pine away for Travis Snider.

LF Snider (25): 1228pa, 8.0bb%, 26.4k%, .318babip, .249/.310/.411/.721, .315woba, 93wRC+
C J.Arencibia (27): 1108pa, 5.5bb%, 28.9k%, .262babip, .222/.269/.436/.705, .303woba, 89wRC+

Snider's been a platooned left fielder, and can barely outhit our crappy fulltime C.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#273265) #
Snider obviously hasn't hit well.  But at least he plays decent or better defence.  Arencibia's defence is (depending on your perspective) bad or very bad.  The fact that he plays a key defensive position is both a positive (it's hard to find catchers with the power that Arencibia has) and a negative (he gets more chances to make defensive plays and flubs them up more often).  Poor pitch blocking/game calling/pitch framing can influence pitcher performance in ways unlike the defensive failings of other position players.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#273267) #
playing barely adequate corner OF defense isn't anything to write home about.

UZR thinks Snider is passable (career +2.8uzr/150 in LF, +0.3uzr/150 in RF), TZ thinks he's awful (career -5 in LF, career -5 in RF), TZL thinks he's bad (career -4.7 in LF, career 0.0 in RF). And we can only expect him to become an outright liability in the field under all metrics as that wide body of his ages (even his UZR has been steadily creeping downwards the last couple of years).

The combo of offense and defense has earned Snider a 1.8 career fangraphs war and 3.0 b/r war in 1228pa, and earned JPA a 1.8 career fangraphs war and a 3.0 b/r war in 1108pa.

Both those systems see JP's contributions as a bad defensive catcher as slightly more valuable than Sniders contributions as a middling defensive corner OF.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#273268) #
I know. None of the rating systems really make any attempt to quantify the subtler aspects of catcher defence.  SB/CS is the major thing for the metrics, with a few other things.  All of the subtle stuff are the things Arencibia is particularly poor at. 
Gerry - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#273270) #
Kudos, Chuck, I laughed.
robertdudek - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#273297) #
Before dismissing Snider, why don't we wait and see if/when he gets 500 PA in a season - his career high is 319 PA and he will probably make it to 400 at least.

Meanwhile Snider is TWO YEARS younger than Arencibia. Apples to oranges, my friends.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#273300) #
Age 25

J.Arencibia: 486pa, 23hr, 78rbi, 7.4bb%, 27.4k%, .255babip, .219/.282/.438/.720, .311woba, 92wRC+ (rookie season)
T.Snider: 170pa, 2hr, 17rbi, 8.8bb%, 24.1k%, .321babip, .245/.312/.374/.686, .300woba, 92wRC+ (1000+pa experience)
hypobole - Wednesday, June 05 2013 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#273302) #
I've mentioned this before, but Sniders wrist injuries have seemed to sap his power. ISO by season:

2008: .164
2009: .178
2010: .241 (1st half)
2010: .187 (2nd half)
2011: .123
2012: .128
2013: .129

I split up 2010, with that season's wrist injury as the dividing line. He also had wrist tendonitis that brought his 2011 season to an early end and injured his wrist again in late April 2012.

For some perspective, Bonifacio has a .122 ISO this season.
robertdudek - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 01:55 AM EDT (#273306) #
SO are you saying that because Arencibia hasn't developed one whit in the last two years it ensures that Snider won't either?

My point is Arencibia is much closer to a finished product than Snider, hence not worthwhile comparing them.
John Northey - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#273308) #
I think it is noteworthy to see that a catcher whose offense is not that good is hitting about the same as a highly rated outfielder (at least as a prospect he was highly rated).  Now, catching saps you long term for offense, thus why teams often move guys away from there (such as Delgado, Dale Murphy, Craig Biggio to name a few) if they have real offensive potential.

Snider has potential still, especially if that wrist injury is still hurting his power.  I suspect he could be like Bautista, a guy who has troubles for years then suddenly for whatever reason has it 'click' and becomes the player we all thought he could be.  Given he is established in the 90's for OPS+ right now (94 career, 96 this year at age 25) I suspect he'll need to move around a bit in order to find 'the answer' (yes, I watch too much Simpsons).  I wouldn't be shocked if he does jump to a 120-140 OPS+ in his late 20's for a couple of years, or even has a full Bautista recovery.  However, the odds are he will be a mid-90's OPS+ guy for his career as most players don't progress drastically from where they are after 1000 PA.  To expect a drastic improvement would be foolish.  And since the Jays dream of winning (or at least dreamed of it) you cannot have a guy in the OF who might never shift away from that.  All 3 regular OF's right now have had 120+ OPS+ seasons in the majors (full seasons) as has our DH and 1B and all are still in prime years (Bautista on the far end at 32, Rasmus in early stages at 26) with Gose as backup (111 OPS+ right now) plus Davis (91 OPS+, career 87 so a bit below Snider but not drastically so).
uglyone - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#273340) #
robert - all I'm saying is that you have two players at a similar stage in their careers, who have comparable offensive numbers, yet one is a full time C and the other is a platoon c corner OF......and for some reason it's the fulltime C that gets nothing but hate, while the platoon corner OF gets nothing but love.

The crazy thing is Snider isn't even all that much better v. RHP (.733ops) than JPA (.698ops) is over his career....and is actually worse this year v. RHP (.710) than JPA is (.738). (Funny thing is that this year JPA's actually got a reverse's his .551ops v. LHP that's really bringing JPA down this year).

As for Snider's wrist injury...I have a hard time pinning his lack of power on that. Somehow Snider gave himself some weird slappy swing a few years ago and despite the Jays trying to change it he never has. He really doesn't have a power stroke anymore. He probably could if he tried to change but he doesn't seem to want to.
John Northey - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#273351) #
uglyone - I suspect Snider is caught in a similar mess as Bautista used to be.  Namely that all it takes is a slight shift one way or the other and 'boom' he goes from 90's to well over 120 and then a big contract.  But like Bautista it'll take a LOT of time to try out many options and then need to be willing to listen to the right coach at the right time to make it happen.  Impossible to know if it will happen, but he certainly has the potential thus will get shots for about 5 more years.  Even as is he is useful as a 4th outfielder but if his defense and speed have dropped then he better get going soon.
hypobole - Thursday, June 06 2013 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#273353) #
uglyone, maybe his swing got slappy because of his wrist issues. It certainly wasn't slappy at the time of his 2010 injury.
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