Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Top Prospect Comparison

Here is a comparison of top 10 Jay prospects from various sources. If a player is gone and the list includes past the top 10 I'll add a note at the bottom to help understand. The list will be updated as other top 10 lists appear. Feel free to link other top 10's and I'll try to add them.

	Batter's Box	Baseball America	MLB.com	Scouting Book	Baseball Prospectus
1	Daniel Norris, lhp	Daniel Norris, lhp	Daniel Norris, lhp #25 overall	Aaron Sanchez, rhp #19 overall	Aaron Sanchez, rhp
2	Dalton Pompey, of	Aaron Sanchez, rhp	Aaron Sanchez, rhp #35 overall	Daniel Norris, lhp #32 overall	Daniel Norris, lhp
3	Aaron Sanchez, rhp	Jeff Hoffman, rhp	Dalton Pompey, of #88 overall	Dalton Pompey, of #70 overall	Dalton Pompey, cf
4	Jeff Hoffman, rhp	Dalton Pompey, of	Jeff Hoffman, rhp #90 overall	Devon Travis, 2b #103 overall	Jeff Hoffman, rhp
5	Roberto Osuna, rhp	Max Pentecost, c	Roberto Osuna, rhp	Jeff Hoffman, rhp #118 overall	Max Pentecost, c
6	Max Pentecost, c	Roberto Osuna, rhp	Max Pentecost, c	D.J. Davis, of #164 overall	Jairo Labourt, lhp
7	Miguel Castro, rhp	Richard Urena, ss	Mitch Nay, 3b	Mitch Nay, 3b #209 overall	Miguel Castro, rhp
8	Mitch Nay, 3b	Miguel Castro, rhp	Devon Travis, 2b	Max Pentecost, c #229 overall	Roberto Osuna, rhp
9	Matt Smoral, lhp	Sean Reid-Foley, rhp	D.J. Davis, of	Roberto Osuna, rhp #231 overall	Sean Reid-Foley, rhp
10	Dwight Smith Jr, of	--	Sean Reid-Foley, rhp	Alberto Tirado, rhp #240 overall	Alberto Tirado, rhp

Others to come... John Sickels, many others.

I did this in 2012 and then Travis d'Arnaud was #1 across the board. Marcus Stroman (probably the best of the batch) was between 5th and 9th on the lists. Noah Syndergaard was either #2 or #3 in all cases as was Aaron Sanchez.

So far this year Daniel Norris is #1 or #2 on all lists, Aaron Sanchez #1 in all other cases but #3 here at Batter's Box. Dalton Pompey #2-4. Others on all lists are Jeff Hoffman, Roberto Osuna, and Max Pentecost. So 6 of 10 are on all (so far). No one was on 4 of 5, but on 3 lists we see Sean Reid-Foley, Mitch Nay, and Miguel Castro. Devon Travis is only on 2 but probably belongs on more. DJ Davis also is on 2 as is Alberto Tirado. Single guys are Dwight Smith Jr, Jairo Labourt, Matt Smoral, and Richard Urena.

Invalid choices due to players being traded: Batter's Box had Barreto at #4 and Graveman at #8 (thus promoting Smoral and Smith Jr to top 10 although I suspect Travis would be higher than those 2 on a current list). Baseball America had Barreto at #5 - we'll be able to add Travis to the list later once they have their top 100 list out (hopefully - this assumes he makes the top 100 thus making it easy to guess where he belongs in the BA Jays top 10).

Posted by John Northey on Saturday, December 06 2014 @ 08:35 PM EST.

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uglyone - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 02:11 AM EST (#296061) #

not sure how guys like nay and davis and tirado can crack these lists right now. means that some others are getting underrated, imo.

my super-authoratative ranking which will change again next week:

1. CF D.Pompey
2. LH D.Norris
3. RH A.Sanchez
4. RH R.Osuna
5. RH M.Castro
6. RH J.Hoffman
7. C M.Pentacost
8. 2B D.Travis
9. SS R.Urena
10. OF D.Smith / 1B R.Tellez

Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 08:48 AM EST (#296064) #

These are very tentative lists due to changes occurring often this offseason and people being promoted next Season. Having Aaron Sanchez on this list, because he's barely still qualified, is ridiculous. He's a Major League Pitcher, and that's never changing. Pompey's gone as soon as the Season starts. It's the next 10 that are significant, but that's never considered this early. Nobody does top 12 lists either.

John Northey - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 08:49 AM EST (#296065) #

Checking 2014's BA top 100 you see Devon Travis as #84, well after Sanchez & Stroman (the only Jays in the top 100 in 2014 & 2013). So he might be as high as #3 (although I doubt that) but I suspect around #6 for the Jays.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 10:16 AM EST (#296067) #

John
Check out MLB's top 100, there's differences there too.

ogator - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 11:12 AM EST (#296068) #

When I read the comments of the various posters, I get the impression that people are most impressed with the acquisition of Russell Martin as being the best move of the off-season, thus far with the trade for Donaldson to be 1A. But my favourite move was the trade of Gose for Travis. There was a serious hole in the organization at 2B. I don't even know if Travis will work out but the Jays acquired what they specifically needed by trading from a surplus. I hope Travis turns out to be a stud but even if he doesn't, I still love the logic of this move. Martin may be better than Navarro and Donaldson may be better than Lawrie but Travis looks like such a perfect fit--a good player where there was nothing but a hole.

PeterG - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 11:52 AM EST (#296069) #

Speaking of prospects, Anthony Alford and Christian Lopes each with 2 hits in Canberra's victory over Adelaide today.

I wonder if anyone would place Alford in the BJ top ten. If draftees who have not yet played or have only played a couple of months, can make the list, why not Alford? I think there is a good chance he rockets up the charts next year as did Pompey but as he is starting at a lower level, it won't be to the majors but AA might be a reasonable scenario. I suspect he starts at Lansing.

Apparently the Jays are bringing Miguel Castro to big league ST and want to look at him as a reliever.

John Northey - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 12:08 PM EST (#296072) #

Added in ranking based on top 100/750 lists (depending on source). MLB.com seems to match up their top 100 with regular Jay ranking.

FYI: Scouting Book also has...
#317: Franklin Barreto, SS (of course, long gone now but geez what a low ranking)
#319: Sean Nolin, lhp (no longer here)
#439: Sean Reid-Foley,rhp
#495: Matt Smoral, lhp
#500: Dwight Smith, of
#548: Anthony Alford, of
#577: Phil Bickford, rhp (mentions how he didn't sign, ranking must be due to high draft pick status)
#605: John Stilson, rhp
#610: AJ Jimenez, c
#624: Chase DeJong, rhp
#627: Clinton Hollon, rhp
#682: Santiago Nessy, c
#706: Matt Boyd, lhp
#744: Adonys Cardona, rhp

A few names I didn't expect to see there. 21 who are still Blue Jays on their list of 750, or one per 36 prospects so a bit lower than hoped for.

Mike Green - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 12:10 PM EST (#296073) #

Comparing pitchers with position players is well nigh impossible. My position player list would be:

Pompey
Travis
Urena
Pentecost
Smith
Tellez
Nay

My pitcher list would be:

Sanchez
Norris
Osuna
Hoffman
Castro

For the first time in a long, long time, the prospect list is balanced, most impressively with good players down the middle of the diamond. Alford is a nice replacement for Pompey when he graduates.

Parker - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 01:07 PM EST (#296075) #

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Alford starts to get noticed more now that he's focused on baseball - he was quite highly ranked pre-draft. If I remember right, he was regarded as a first-round talent who dropped to the third round due to the uncertainty over whether he would ever commit to baseball full-time.

He'll be a heck of a steal for the Jays if he reaches his ceiling.

metafour - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 02:40 PM EST (#296077) #

If draftees who have not yet played or have only played a couple of months, can make the list, why not Alford?

Those draftees are either younger than him because they are coming out of HS/JUCO, or they are College kids that have 3 years of at-bats/pitches under their belt. The problem with ranking Alford high is that he has missed ~2 years of developmental time, thus there is a wait-and-see approach that needs to be exercised. Everyone knows he has talent and upside, but you can't just ignore the fact that he has missed development time at the most critical period for growth. If he has a big year next year he will shoot up the rankings deservedly.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 03:19 PM EST (#296078) #

A.A. had a personal visit with Alford that really changed his mind. It's possible A.A. told him, that if he'd given 100% to Baseball from the day he signed, he might be a call-up this year. If he's willing to do the same starting now, that might happen by 2017.

Even average Players do well: $1.5 MM the first three years; $.75 MM, $1.5 MM, $2.25 MM the last three years gives you $6.0 MM before Free Agency. Someone like Josh Donaldson makes: $1.0 MM for his first two years and should make around $4.5 MM in year three as a really good player.

Thomas - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 04:06 PM EST (#296082) #

Richard's right in that the BA Top 100 doesn't always align perfectly with the team's Top 10 lists, so we'll be able to guess where Travis falls, but not perfectly. I think that's because the Top 100 is a collective exercise, whereas the Team Top 10s are done by individual authors.

uglyone - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 04:45 PM EST (#296083) #

I've always believed Alford was still a legit prospect, as his football career was never going to last, but even then he wouldn't crack my top 10. But if you think that the likes of Reid-Foley, Smoral, Davis, etc. can make the top-10 there's no reason Alford can't.

gabrielthursday - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 06:02 PM EST (#296093) #

I think we need to consider Alford as being on the same level as a current 1st round draft pick. That's where his tools have suggested he still belongs, and his limited results hitherto give us enough positive indicators (effective work on the basepaths, useable in-game power, draws some walks) to weigh against the loss of development time. He'll arrive later, but I don't think loss of development time has a notable impact on his potential, which remains impressive.

I'd rank him in the 10-15 range, ahead of Tellez and Nay.

katman - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 07:21 PM EST (#296096) #

I'd put Norris ahead of Sanchez. Norris showed that he can start. I think the jury is still out on Sanchez, given walk totals that have improved but remain high. Closing helped focus him, but as a starter, I see the minor league walk numbers (57 in 100 innings) jumping - and that will mean real trouble in the AL East. He halved his minor league WHIP (1.45) as a reliever in 2014 (0.70), but you don't pitch the same way when you don't have to think about getting through 7 innings.

Does Sanchez have starter potential? Yes. Is 2015 the year I want to find out? Personally, no. Unless we sign David Robertson or something, the team needs him to close and he needs to reps pitching to a style that implicitly trains him out of his weakness.

I put Sanchez ahead of Pompey for 2015, because a near-sure closer beats a low WAR maybe center fielder (which is still, you know, pretty good for a prospect). Depending on how they evolve over the next few years, that could obviously change.

jensan - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 07:58 PM EST (#296097) #

I believe Alford is behind Nay and ahead of Tellez, however, there are others who have talent that will evolve over the next year, too move up the ladder including Smith Jr. , Labourt , Suriel, and Smoral.
Interested how Hollon comes back from TJ
No superstars as of yet, but I believe there is depth that is similar to 2011/12 farm team.

uglyone - Sunday, December 07 2014 @ 08:39 PM EST (#296101) #

i put pompey up top because i think he's the only one that combines elite tools with elite performance. sanchez has the stuff, but not the performance, while norris has the performance but i'm not quite sold on his arsenal being true top of the rotation stuff.

and i agree with alford being on par with the likes of nay, but i have tellez ahead of nay. though admittedly that may be me too easily dismissing his first month and a half struggles and concentrating too much on his elite performance in the second half if the year at two levels. but i do think he figured it out somewhere in there, and showed a level of sustained performance the rest of the year that a guy like nay never has.

Hodgie - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 01:24 AM EST (#296111) #

I am looking forward to Dan Jansen joining the Blue Jays Top Ten lists next season.

finch - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 01:45 AM EST (#296112) #

I'm looking forward to Matt Smoral having a breakout season a la Norris and I'm expecting huge things from Hollon, Dean and Alford.

ayjackson - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 08:26 AM EST (#296122) #

I would guess that Castro, Hoffman, and Osuna are our big movers this year and end it knocking on the door. Maybe Smoral.

uglyone - Monday, December 08 2014 @ 10:24 AM EST (#296126) #

yeah Jansen could rise fast. as could Thomas. and that other 2b that we drafted that i forget his name.

wouldn't be surprised if the biggest riser was urena, though, especially if he plays full season ball. if he can repeat last year's performance in Lansing this year, then he makes some top 100 lists next year imo.

jayBlue - Tuesday, December 30 2014 @ 11:45 AM EST (#296852) #

John Sickels Top 20 is up.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/12/29/7466457/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2015

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