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So, we now have Baseball Prospectus' top 10 to go with Baseball America's, FanGraphs, John Sickles, and our own.  How do they compare? 
Note: MLB.com just added in to expand the diversity of the lists.


RankBaseball ProspectusBaseball AmericaFanGraphsJohn Sickels (MinorLeagueBall.com)MLB.com
Batters Box
1 Travis d'Arnaud, c Travis d'Arnaud, c Travis d'Arnaud, c Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade A- Travis d'Arnaud, cTravis d'Arnaud, c
2 Noah Syndergaard, rhp Noah Syndergaard, rhp Aaron Sanchez, rhp Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A- Aaron Sanchez, rhpAaron Sanchez, rhp
3 Aaron Sanchez, rhp Aaron Sanchez, rhp Noah Syndergaard, rhp Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Grade B+ Noah Syndergaard, rhpNoah Syndergaard, rhp
4 Sean Nolin, lhp Roberto Osuna, rhp Roberto Osuna, rhp Roberto Osuna, RHP, Grade B+ Daniel Norris, lhpRoberto Osuna, rhp
5 D.J. Davis, of Marcus Stroman, rhp D.J. Davis, of Marcus Stroman, RHP, Grade B Roberto Osuna, rhpD.J. Davis, of
6 Roberto Osuna, rhp D.J. Davis, of Daniel Norris, lhp Sean Nolin, LHP, Grade B D.J. Davis, ofDaniel Norris, lhp
7 Daniel Norris, lhp John Stilson, rhp Sean Nolin, lhp D.J. Davis, OF, Grade B- Marcus Stroman, rhpMarcus Stroman, rhp
8 Marcus Stroman, rhp Daniel Norris, lhp A.J. Jimenez, c Daniel Norris, LHP, Grade B- Matt Smoral, lhpSean Nolin, lhp
9 Matt Smoral, lhp Matt Smoral, lhp Marcus Stroman, rhp Matt Smoral, LHP, Grade B- Deck McGuire, rhp
A.J. Jimenez, c
10 Alberto Tirado, rhp A.J. Jimenez, c Santiago Nessy, c A.J. Jimenez, C, Grade C+ Chris Hawkins, of
Christian Lopes, 2b

Baseball America only listed 10 players, but it was suggested that Norris, Smoral and Jimenez just missed their top 10 so I put them in the 8/9/10 slots to compensate for the 3 guys lost in the Marlins trade.  I just added MLB.com thus some shifts in the rest of the results.

Common players: Travis d'Arnaud is clearly #1 as far as everyone is concerned.  Noah Syndergaard is #2 for 3 and 3rd for the other 3.  Aaron Sanchez claims #2 in 3 cases and #3 in 3 cases.  Roberto Osuna is #4 in 4 cases but BP shifts him to 6th (!) while putting Sean Nolin 4th and MLB.com puts him 5th and Norris 4th.  This is where things get messy.

Guys on all 6...
  • Travis d'Arnaud (#1)
  • Noah Syndergaard (#2 for 3, #3 for 3)
  • Aaron Sanchez (#2 for 3, #3 for 3)
  • Roberto Osuna (#4 for 4, #5 for 1, #6 for 1)
  • DJ Davis ranking between 5th and 7th
  • Daniel Norris ranking between 6th and 8th, 4th for MLB.com
  • Marcus Stroman ranking between 5th (BA + JS) and 9th (FG)
Guys on 4 out of 6...
  • Sean Nolin: from #4 for BP, missed by BA & MLB.com
  • AJ Jimenez from 8th to 10, missed by BP & MLB.com
  • Matt Smoral: 9th on 3 (BP, BA, FG) skipped by FG + BB and 8th on MLB.com
Lonely guys...
  • Alberto Tirado on BP only (#10)
  • John Stilson on BA only (#7)
  • Santiago Nessy only on FG (#10)
  • Christian Lopes only on BB (#10)
  • Deck McGuire only on MLB.com (#9)
  • Chris Hawkins only on MLB.com (#10)

Not bad, 7 guys were common, 3 missed by just 2 leaving just 6 open slots, none higher than 7th where there was a real debate.  Nolin being skipped by BA & MLB.com is the most notable while Stilson betting a 7th from BA is the highest for a single ballot guy, the rest were 10th slot guys other than McGuire at #9 for MLB.com.

Pretty obvious who the top 7 prospects are for the Jays, with Nolin and Jimenez the 8/9 and Smoral the 10th guy.  Big challenge now is who do the Jays lose to other clubs in trades between now and mid-season as they keep trying to move into contention.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 12:41 PM EST (#266726) #

As for trading Prospects, it's likely only those in AA or AAA or MLB-ready would be moved as everyone else is too far away.   And very few others would be of interest.   In no special order:

1) Outfield: Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra;   2) Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud, A.J. Jimenez;   3) Infield: Ryan Goins;   4) LHP: Sean Nolin;   5) RHP: Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Sam Dyson, Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire, Daniel Barnes;   6) MLB-ready: Drew Hutchison, Kyle Drabek, Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, J.P. Arencibia, John Buck.

That's it.   Some on the list, don't have much value, while others on the list, weaken the team too much.   Who A.A. moves is a mystery.

TamRa - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 02:04 PM EST (#266729) #
So, using the traditional "football poll" method:

1. d'Arnaud - 50
2. Syndergaard - 43
3. Sanchez - 42
4. Osuna - 33
5. Davis - 27
6. Stroman - 21
7. Norris - 20
8. Nolin - 19
9. Jiminez - 7
10. Smoral - 6




Gerry - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 03:28 PM EST (#266735) #

Just for fun let's look at the ETA's for the players who were listed:

  • Travis d'Arnaud (#1)   - 2013
  • Noah Syndergaard (#2 for 3, #3 for 2) - 2015
  • Aaron Sanchez (#2 for 2, #3 for 3) - 2015
  • Roberto Osuna (#4 for 4, #6 for 1) - 2016
  • DJ Davis ranking between 5th and 7th - 2017
  • Daniel Norris ranking between 6th and 8th - 2016
  • Marcus Stroman ranking between 5th (BA + JS) and 9th (FG) - 2013
  • Sean Nolin: from #4 for BP, missed by BA - 2014
  • AJ Jimenez from 8th to 10, missed by BP - 2015
  • Matt Smoral: 9th on 3 (BP, BA, FG) skipped by FG + BB - 2017
  • Alberto Tirado on BP only (#10) - 2017
  • John Stilson on BA only (#7) - 2013
  • Santiago Nessy only on FG (#10) - 2016
  • Christian Lopes only on BB (#10 - 2016

For the next two years the major league team will be helped by one catcher (TDA) and three pitchers (Nolin, Stroman and Stilson).  However with each of these three pitchers there is still a debate as to whether they will be starters or relievers.

In 2015 you have Jimenez, Syndergaard and Sanchez.

And of course around half of these guys will flame out.

Jonny German - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 03:43 PM EST (#266737) #
Let us not forget Anthony Gose when speaking of players coming on. And of course Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek, with the surgery caveat.
Beyonder - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 03:47 PM EST (#266738) #
If the reports on Alford focussing on baseball are right, we just added a first round talent to our list of top prospects. AA's "huh?" move of the draft may turn out to be one of his best.
Ryan Day - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 03:57 PM EST (#266740) #
As far as Alford is concerned, let's not count our chickens until they're acquitted. And perhaps not get too excited about adding a player who's been kicked out of school because he's facing a weapons charge.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 04:01 PM EST (#266742) #
"Counting chickens" may not be the best metaphor in the circumstances, but the point is well-taken. 
Beyonder - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 04:10 PM EST (#266743) #
Sure Ryan. But this is a guy whose value was driven down by the fact that: a) no one thought he would sign with a team to begin with, and b) even if he would sign, most figured he would play out his four year committment to the detriment of his baseball career. Yes, the assault charge makes this a bit of a mixed blessing, but after the way the 2011 draft has gone so far (early stages I know) it's nice to see some of the gambles paying off. Talent wise, I think a number of evaluators put Alford relatively close to DJ Davis.

If Alford plays, it makes AA's punting gambit in rounds 4 through 10 a bit mroe palatable to me.
Mylegacy - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 04:27 PM EST (#266746) #
Beyonder - "If the reports on Alford focussing (sic) on baseball are right..."

Where'd ya hear that? Last I heard the guy was gonna red shirt next year and play defensive back thereafter....

If you're correct then time for a wee dram.

Beyonder - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 04:32 PM EST (#266747) #
John Lott from the Post tweeted: "Looks like troubled #BlueJays prospect Anthony Alford will be focusing on baseball after leaving Southern Miss"

I don't know if he has anything to back this up, but he's usually a careful tweeter.
Beyonder - Thursday, December 13 2012 @ 04:40 PM EST (#266748) #
Also, focus makes "focusing" only in American english, and "focussing" in British English. Many of my posts deserve a "sic", but not that one.
ayjackson - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 12:02 PM EST (#266759) #
Nice free article over at BP on Roberto Osuna, whom Mr. Churchill compares to Jurickson Profar
ayjackson - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 12:03 PM EST (#266761) #
So if we exclude the influence of Mr. Hulet, does the #2 prospect become Syndergaard across the board?
Richard S.S. - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 01:39 PM EST (#266766) #
Marc Hulet is a respected voice in the Prospect World.   To remove his voice from consideration removes some of the objectivity that still barely exists on this site.   It could turn this site into a howling wilderness.
Mike Green - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 02:24 PM EST (#266768) #
No need for drama. The consensus is that Syndergaard is ahead of Sanchez by a nose.  My view is that it is three lengths, and some would have Sanchez ahead by a length or two.  It's not a big deal.
John Northey - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 02:33 PM EST (#266769) #
Are there other good prospect sites that we should add in?  Those 4 plus ours were the first ones to come to mind, and there are dozens of random bloggers out there but I didn't see much point to adding those.  Generally BA is the scouts site, BP the stats, Sickels extremely respected, FanGraphs a second stats site and ours of course.  More pure scouting ones would be nice to add if they exist.  Also would be fun to get lists from 10 years ago and see how they each did.

As to Alford, reading up a bit on his season he was injured a lot in the knees and ankles.  That would worry me a bit as injuries can drastically reduce effectiveness.  Hopefully he figures out that baseball won't physically hurt him as much and allow him to have a well paying career.

TamRa - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 03:44 PM EST (#266777) #
Are there other good prospect sites that we should add in?

MLB.com?

I know there's another one I'm forgeting the nameof right now.

TamRa - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 03:48 PM EST (#266778) #
re Alford - there was a report right after the arrest that he'd made preperations to transfer to Ole Miss and play DB

I agree with the columnist linked at DJF - it would be sad and a little stupid for him to squander his gifts chasing that goast but i have not heard a specific credible report that HE had said "okay, baseball then:

Still, if he drops out of USM and plans to go (as a reshirt) to Ole Miss, he MIGHT take the spring sememster off which would givehim a chance to immerse himself in a full spring training and that might help move his opinion

greenfrog - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:09 PM EST (#266780) #
Jays getting closer re Dickey?

https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/279693038320775168
John Northey - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:15 PM EST (#266781) #
Interesting that Joel Sherman says Dickey doesn't want to sign an extension in Toronto.  One wonders though if it is negotiating tactics.  Odds are for anyone but the Mets he'd be asking for more than $26 over 2 ($31 over 3 factoring in this year).  I'd easily go to $30 mil over those extra 2 years, not sure how much further though given his age and the variability knuckleballers can have.  At the very least we are near an end to the speculation and it won't go on as long as the Yu Darvish drama did.
Waveburner - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:28 PM EST (#266784) #

The fact there are so many reports of Dickey going to the Jays can lead me to one conclusion. It is highly unlikely Dickey is coming to the Jays. That's how it's been under Anthopoulos so far, I have a hard time seeing it change now. My guess is the Mets are using the Jays as a negotiating tactic through the media.Teams realize at this point that Anthopoulos will neither confirm or deny any rumours.

sam - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:34 PM EST (#266789) #
I'm a big fan of Anthony Gose.  I think trading him away would be bad business.  If it was Arencibia, Sierra, and someone like Deck MacGuire or Sean Nolin--I think you're talking.  But dealing Gose and his ceiling I think would be a huge mistake. 
sam - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:36 PM EST (#266790) #
I also share in the belief that is not happening due to the leaks. 
John Northey - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:41 PM EST (#266791) #
If it does happen then you can bet AA will avoid the Mets as much as possible in the future as they are as leaky as a strainer.  Also remember the old AA rule - if rumours are out there then it happens within 48 hours or it never will.
Beyonder - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:45 PM EST (#266793) #
About a month ago I listened to a BA podcast that Gerry recommended where they discussed Gose in detail. They agreed that his ceiling remains sky high, but at this stage they put his chances of ever becoming even an average major league hitter at below 50%. If he is not dealt, I expect he will go to Buffalo at age 22, hit 255 to 260 again in a proper hitting environment, and fall even further down the prospect ranks. Now may be our last chance to get value for him. Sure, there is some risk that he hits his stride, but Dickey would be one heck of an addition to the rotation.
Richard S.S. - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:46 PM EST (#266794) #
New York Mets leak, always have, always will.
sam - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 04:56 PM EST (#266795) #
I think the people over at BA are little gun-shy after their Domonic Brown love-in ended sourly.   While I may disagree with their crude numbers about his potential for success or major league average, I'm willing to submit that Gose is still a ways-away from fully realizing his talent and potential.  I still think this is a significant and very rare talent.  I was impressed when I saw him last year, and even more impressed that he seems acutely aware that he needs to improve--which stands in stark contrast to some of our other young players. 
ayjackson - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 05:00 PM EST (#266796) #

They agreed that his ceiling remains sky high, but at this stage they put his chances of ever becoming even an average major league hitter at below 50%.

He's always been very young for his level, so he needs a proper chance to adjust to a level.  But after he was recalled from Vegas last year, with a Mottola modifcation to his swing, WOW.  All I see is an amazingly gifted player with a short sweet stroke.  He hit a 380' bomb to right in Fenway that just exploded off his bat.  At 21 years-old!

greenfrog - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 05:00 PM EST (#266797) #
Ken Rosenthal (reliable) quotes a source saying the Rangers are no longer in on Dickey.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal
greenfrog - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 05:13 PM EST (#266798) #
Jays "growing confident" they will acquire Dickey...?

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/279708208967323648
Mike Green - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 05:14 PM EST (#266799) #
The 2010-11 version of Austin Jackson (or 1985-86 Gary Pettis if you prefer) seems like a reasonable expectation for Gose without much improvement.  That's a below-average major league hitter but an above-average major league player. 
sam - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 05:31 PM EST (#266800) #
I trust Rosenthal here and considering the links that the Rangers were offering Olt and Buckel were coming from Met beat writers, it's likely  the Mets are trying to drive up the price. 

I have a feeling this trade is a bit bigger than a Dickey for a prospect and a 25 man guy.  Something like Dickey and Ike Davis for Arencibia, Gose, Lind and Jenkins, maybe.

greenfrog - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 06:01 PM EST (#266801) #
I like that Jon Daniels has gone on the record saying that Dickey is not headed to Texas. Helps deflate some of the (likely) Mets-induced hype around the bidding.
Mick Doherty - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 06:15 PM EST (#266802) #

I like that Jon Daniels has gone on the record saying that Dickey is not headed to Texas.

Funny, my first thought on reading that was "Oh boy, Dickey back in Texas. Wonder what they'll give ud?"

joeblow - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 07:26 PM EST (#266803) #
The thought of any of those top 10 or Gose going for RA Dickey makes me cry.
Lylemcr - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 07:40 PM EST (#266804) #

If the Mets turned down Ott for Dickey, I am not going to like what the Jays offered.  It is not like we are getting a proven winner....(year over year).  But, knuckleballers do seem to bloom late.

In the same breath, after all the trades that have happened in the past year, the top ten prospects for the Jays is still very impressive.  They are still ahead of many teams.  It tells alot about the depth that AA was trying to assemble in the organization.  We may not have any A+ prospects, but we have(had) alot of A and B prospects. 

Go Jays!

Glevin - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 08:32 PM EST (#266805) #
People are massively underrating Dickey. His ERA+ the last three years have been 140, 112, and 138 while averaging over 200 innings a year. He's not some pitcher who has only had one great season. I wouldn't be keen to trade D'arnaud for him (unless it was a bigger trade-maybe Ike Davis coming back) but Dickey has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past three years and as a knuckleballer, there's no reason he couldn't continue that for another few.
Richard S.S. - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 08:53 PM EST (#266806) #
I have noticed that people who think we might pay too much for Dickey would have been strongly opposed to THE TRADE.
Ryan Day - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 09:25 PM EST (#266808) #
According to Rosenthal, the Rangers never offered Olt.
Mick Doherty - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 09:38 PM EST (#266810) #
Yeah, Ryan.  Amd if they had, R.A. wutld be house-hunting in DFW right about now.
Richard S.S. - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 10:02 PM EST (#266811) #
Once upon a time, many years ago, I remember DFW.  Compared to the rest of the state, they're out and out crazy there.   The rest of the state is outright strange, and that's the normal people.
joeblow - Friday, December 14 2012 @ 11:52 PM EST (#266817) #
They're going to be calling this THE TRADE when it's all over. I think most people were quite happy with the last one as it filled clear holes. This one is not so clear. The farm system is thin enough in position players to be giving up our best.
Glevin - Saturday, December 15 2012 @ 12:11 AM EST (#266818) #
"They're going to be calling this THE TRADE when it's all over. I think most people were quite happy with the last one as it filled clear holes. This one is not so clear. The farm system is thin enough in position players to be giving up our best."

If the trade happens and it is what I think it probably is (D'arnaud and other prospects probably including Gose for Dickey and Davis) then it fills very obvious holes. Dickey is one of the best pitchers in baseball and a massive upgrade in the rotation and Davis would be a pretty large upgrade over Lind.
Thomas - Saturday, December 15 2012 @ 01:24 AM EST (#266821) #
Yeah, Ryan. Amd if they had, R.A. wutld be house-hunting in DFW right about now

Why? He's an inferior prospect to d'Arnaud and he plays the position where the Mets least need a prospect.

Kelekin - Saturday, December 15 2012 @ 02:06 AM EST (#266822) #
Anthony Gose is a fantastic talent. With amazing potential. But there is still the possibility he is no more than a .250/.320 MLB guy (which isn't any better than Vernon Wells, and with speed instead of power). Outside of his speed, Gose has -not- had a good minor league season. You could make the argument that he's a long-term project, but I think if anything, it is that we all see his potential and he could be a top tier CF if he reaches it.

On the other hand, you're trading for a pitcher who, while old, has just had three amazing years, and just won the Cy Young. How often do you get to trade for a Cy Young winner?

At the end of the day, one player is proven, and even one year ago I probably would've acted like giving up Gose/D'Arnaud would be too much. But you tend to realize that, they are clearly hoping to have a top-level rotation for at least three years, at which point you start having some of your breakout young pitchers you've been drafting come on to the seen. Having a top level rotation can win ball games as the Rays show year in and year out. Our rotation with Dickey would be: Dickey - Johnson - Morrow - Buehrle - Romero. Last year's considered "ace" would now be our #5. That's a major, major improvement. You have three pitchers with top tier potential, Romero who has been a #2, and Buehrle who is just steady.

Yeah, CF sucks this year. But we now have a -likely- more consistent LF than we had all of last season. So your outfield is still more improved on a daily basis.

Now, to end this long discussion - what I do dislike is the idea of JPA being our long term catcher if D'Arnaud is traded. Rapport or not, I have said for years he is just another Miguel Olivo/John Buck style catcher which makes him slightly above serviceable. D'Arnaud has potential to be way more than that, so I'd almost rather take the risk in trading JPA away and splitting time between D'Arnaud and Buck.

Oh - and it's being floated out there that we might end up with Ike Davis in some sort of package. He had an atrocious first half, but not only does he have consistent power, but he has proven during long streaks he has .850-.950 OPS potential. We'd have a potential 1B solution, too.
TamRa - Saturday, December 15 2012 @ 04:25 AM EST (#266824) #
I'd grit my teeth and accept dealing Gose - I'm foresquare against including d'Arnaud.
rfan8 - Saturday, December 15 2012 @ 08:26 AM EST (#266825) #
I'd be ok with a D'Arnaud for RA or Gose and JPA for RA trade if RA can be extended.  As others have said, Dickey has been really good the last 3 years.  It does sound like the trade is going to involve others though.  If it does Reyes is going to be playing with a lot of former teammates.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 15 2012 @ 09:02 AM EST (#266826) #
Sounds as if it might be d'Arnaud *and* Gose. I hope the Jays are getting some significant talent back besides Dickey.

Maybe Dickey + Niese?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/blue-jays-up-ante-in-negotiations-for-mets--r-a--dickey-072207624.html
Oceanbound - Saturday, December 15 2012 @ 09:14 AM EST (#266827) #
All I can say is I'm glad I'm not someone who has to make the decision on a trade like this.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 16 2012 @ 04:09 PM EST (#266944) #
Nevermind, he clearly admits to stealing the comments...
bpoz - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 08:50 PM EST (#267240) #
We have lost a lot of top 10 talent in the Happ, Marlins & RAD trades. Or so I seem to think.

Anyone know who was on the top 10/30 list back in the late 90s. I am thinking of C Carpenter ahead of R Halladay & K Escobar. Did any Bauxites think of them as potential Aces?
They are all about the same age, all power pitchers & all acquired at very young ages.

It is dreaming to expect them all to be 15+ win 200IP pitchers that you can build a very strong rotation around.

Fuzzy memory aside. Guzman, Hentgen, Clemens/Wells & Woody Williams as existing pieces. IMO it had to be extreme luck to have 3 such power arms and then have them succeed as they did.
TJ Caino - Tuesday, December 18 2012 @ 09:54 PM EST (#267246) #
We have lost a lot of top 10 talent in the Happ, Marlins & RAD trades. Or so I seem to think.

Certainly not the Happ trade. The other two, yes.
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