Andy Burns, interestingly, is the only non-regular in today's starting lineup against the Mets. As mentioned in the other thread, I think he'll be the first to be promoted from Buffalo if there's an infield injury in the early months of the season.

I just wanted to agree with what CF was saying in the previous thread about Pillar hitting leadoff. No, he doesn't fit the classic profile. But no one on the roster fits the profile either. I agree that Pillar would take it as a challenge and try to fit himself to the role. That could work well - he could improve his plate discipline, become a more effective hitter. It could work badly - he'd take it too much to heart and start taking pitches he can hit. Or he could just carry on as always. No way to know until you try.

I'd also point out that Toronto leadoff hitters in 2015 hit .269/.320/.388 - which is remarkably similar to what Pillar did hitting in the bottom of the order (.278/.314/.399) - and they were still able to score almost 900 runs.

A question for whoever follows the Leafs (aside from game 7 of the Boston playoff series, I haven't watched a game since 2010) -- does the team today seem to have a process in place wherein they could be good in the future?

Do they ever.

They spent a ton of cash and built a drool worthy front office built of the sharpest old school and sharpest new school minds, and are already seeing results in their current prospect performances and in their on-ice structure - even despite intentionally icing a team full of crappy pump'n'dump vets this year in order to both tank and trade for assets (which they have done near perfectly).

It might fail but as of now you couldn't ask for a more promising rebuild than this one - it's clearly not a team whose rebuild philosophy is just "suck badly > draft high > success!".

I just wanted to agree with what CF was saying in the previous thread about Pillar hitting leadoff. No, he doesn't fit the classic profile. But no one on the roster fits the profile either. I agree that Pillar would take it as a challenge and try to fit himself to the role. That could work well - he could improve his plate discipline, become a more effective hitter. It could work badly - he'd take it too much to heart and start taking pitches he can hit. Or he could just carry on as always. No way to know until you try.

Pillar has no interest in improving his plate discipline. He openly scoffs at walks. He's done this in multiple interviews, the latest being this morning (skip ahead to 1:20 for his blunt rebuttal):

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/pillar-wont-change-plate-discipline-hes-leadoff/

I said in the other thread that Pillar's "personality" works both for him (he's a "gamer") and against him (he's stubborn as hell).

Here's hoping he hits .330.

They also signed the best coach in the NHL, Mike Babcock, to an eight-year contract, signed one of the best junior coaches to guide their farm team ( Which is first in the AHL ), improved their European scouting immensely, and invested heavily in the analytical side of the game. For the first time in many years, I see light at the end of the tunnel and it's not a train coming. It would be great to see the Jays, Raptors, and Leafs all with strong teams and competing for championships in the future.

Pillar is worth trying in the leadoff spot, as Magpie says.  I'm keen to see how he responds to the challenge.  But in case he fails, and if Travis is not back from injury by mid-season, an interesting (and unexpected) option might be Ryan Goins.  It's far too early to have confidence in this, but I note that his spring statistics are continuing the OBP trend that he established last August.  He has a .387 OBP this spring.  From last August 1 until the end of last season, he posted a .376 OBP.  So that's a total of 230 plate appearances since last August in which he maintained an OBP of close to .380, for what it's worth.

Of course he contradicted this trend with his post-season numbers:  his OBP was just .162 in his 40 post-season PAs.  So who knows.  It might be a trend, or it might not. Far too early to know. Still, it will be an interesting thing to watch this season.

Statdoodle of the Day - Career as SP:

Stroman (25): 24gs, 6.1ip/gs, 77era-, 75fip-, 83xfip-
Dickey (41): 240gs, 6.4ip/gs, 97era-, 106fip-, 104xfip-
Floyd (33): 196gs, 6.0ip/gs, 98era-, 97fip-, 96xfip-
Estrada (32): 99gs, 5.9ip/gs, 100era-, 107fip-, 106xfip-
Happ (33): 171gs, 5.7ip/gs, 104era-, 105fip-, 106xfip-
Chavez (32): 49gs, 5.8ip/gs, 107era-, 100fip-, 96xfip-
Hutchison (25): 71gs, 5.5ip/gs, 122era-, 103fip-, 101xfip-
Sanchez (23): 11gs, 6.0ip/gs, 87era-, 127fip-, 115xfip-

Tulo just came out of the game after being hit in the wrist by a pitch from Colon.

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
Aaron Sanchez (5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K) making a great case for a job as the #BlueJays setup man.

Raptors 2nd in East by 1 1/2 on a 4 game winning streak and I don't think I have a clue who anyone on their roster is

That is one fun team to cheer for, I'm telling you now. It can sometimes be challenging to find them on the TV dial...

I assume Sanchez is done for the day:

6.0ip, 4h, 1xbh, 0r, 0bb, 4k, 1wp, 9go/3fo

Six innings, 4 hits, zero walks, 4 strikeouts.  Nine ground-outs, 3 fly outs.  Another great day for Sanchez, but of course it will never be enough to convince his doubters.

I did enjoy Wilner's description of his first inning today:

Just a silly top1 for Sanchez. 97-97-hook to K Lagares, twice 98 to Herrera for a fly out, weak grounder by Conforto. 7p/6k.

Yep, his control sucks ;)

Wow, he came out for the 7th inning and retired that hitter too.  So it was 6.1 innings today, and finally he's finished.

Chavez, coming into today's game with 2 out in the 7th inning, seems clearly envisioned for a bullpen role at the start of the season.  Let's not imagine that the competition now is anything except Sanchez vs Floyd.

to be fair, it wasn't much of a lineup trotted out by the mets today.

Just 1.1 innings by Chavez today.

Was thinking on Osuna and worrying about his late season struggles and so decided to check out all the numbers, including postseason:


APR: 13.0ip, 34era-, 42fip-, 82xfip-, 2.95siera
MAY: 12.2ip, 52era-, 55fip-, 108xfip-, 3.66siera
JUN: 10.0ip, 66era-, 54fip-, 63xfip-, 1.62siera
JUL: 10.2ip, 62era-, 67fip-, 79xfip-, 2.76siera
AUG: 11.1ip, 19era-, 50fip-, 61xfip-, 1.71siera
SEP: 12.0ip, 147era-, 170fip-, 111xfip-, 4.12siera
PYF: 8.1ip, 53era-, 88fip-, 81xfip-, 3.10siera

Still don't love the looks of that progression. We may have to keep an eye on Osuna and not assume he's gonna be as good as last year.

walkoff carrera HR!

Tulo update from John Lott:

Tulowitzki was hit on right knuckles, some contusions, injury not considered serious, Gibbons says. Getting precautionary X-rays

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
Gibbons on Sanchez: “I don’t know how he could be any better, really.” (6.1 IP, 4H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K.)

I agree with Dan Shulman's perspective on the battle for the "5th starter" job, which essentially comes down to this: If Sanchez has figured out how to pitch to his potential, then you're probably talking about the 2nd best - or possibly even the best - pitcher in the rotation. How do you keep him out, especially this season (i.e. decent chance to win)?

I still wish they'd flipped Dickey/Thole and re-allocated that money to a proper backup catcher + more starter/reliever wildcards (i.e. Floyd, Penny, Hernandez types).

I'd put Ryan Goins lead off.

He OBP'ed .361 in 200+ plate appearances post all star break last season.

I want to see upside manifest into results (well, regular season results) before I read too much into things, but I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't pulling for Sanchez to have "figured it out" right now. The Jays as a team in 2016 and as an organization beyond 2016 benefit if Sanchez pans out. Numbers aside, if they feel his command and breaking stuff is going to translate to better performance in the bigs than it has in the past, then give him the 5th starter spot and see what happens. His control last spring was horrible, and it's a complete 180 this year, but again, performance isn't the important part as much as how he looks.

How they work around the innings if he does win the spot will be the tough part, but skipping turns in the rotation for extra rest, and things like that are probably needed throughout the season regardless. The extra depth will certainly help there. I was pulling for Floyd, but he's a one year asset at best. If Sanchez pans out, the Jays are in great shape. Definitely hoping for the latter.

And I'm holding my breath waiting for the Tulo results.

Is a 6 man rotation such a bad idea? To start the season.

The issue with Sanchez, at this point, is probably not his control.  He seems to have figured that out.  The issue is whether he can get LHB out, especially the better major-league LHB that he hasn't really faced so far this spring.  Here's a smart column by Andrew Stoeten on that subject: 

http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/3/23/aaron-sanchez-should-probably-face-some-more-legit-left-handed-hitters-before-we-anoint-him-a-starter

Here's hoping he hits .330.

Actually Pillar had the most hits per PA in 2015 of any Jay still on the team, so you never know.

I would post the stats but I can never get cutting and pasting to work on this site no matter what I try (how do you do it uglyone? you seem to be the master)

I still wish they'd flipped Dickey/Thole and re-allocated that money to a proper backup catcher + more starter/reliever wildcards (i.e. Floyd, Penny, Hernandez types).

Backup catchers are dirt cheap, but Thole is actually not that bad. You're worrying about 1 WAR of value when many players on the team will fluctuate by more than that.

If you don't sign Dickey might as well sign Price instead of Happ.

We're back to familiar grounds.

I was pulling for Floyd, but he's a one year asset at best.

If he lasts the year with an ERA in the 3s, he's probably worth a QO.
You never know, he might like it here.

Is a 6 man rotation such a bad idea? To start the season.

That would kill Stroman's shot at a Cy Young from the get go.

Is a 6 man rotation such a bad idea? To start the season.

I would think that since there are generally more days off in the early part of the season, a 6 man rotation could leave too much time off between starts.

Marcus Stroman's first year with Toronto was exceptional. Then a freak accident put him on the DL. He then, beyond hope, returns to be be even better than David Price, at only 80% (his words). He's 100% now. Anything that limits the number of starts he makes or prevents him from winning the Cy Young should never be considered.

R.A. Dickey was extremely good from May on, despite struggling in his first Playoff experience. It was thought he'd picked up something from his Cy Young year that made him so good. He did this all injured, and it's suggested for more than just this last past year. He's 100% now in his walk year. I fully expect him to be challenging Stroman for the Cy Young. I think that anything that keeps him from making as many starts as possible is not a good thing.

J. A. Happ, Gavin Floyd and Aaron Sanchez are pitching extremely well. It's encouraging that they aren't struggling; it means they're developing well. Drew Hutchison is just pitching well; it's AAA for him. Jesse Chavez looks like he's being turned into a Swingman/Late Innings/multi-inning Reliever; perhaps a better choice.

Marco Estrada is bound and determined to make the Roster, Day One, so I think the Jays problems aren't here. Why anyone wants a 6-Man Rotation just boggles the mind; who dreamed up this lunacy?

Howsabout a new policy - anyone who mentions Price and how the Jays could've afforded him if they only did xyz will be eaten by a group of cuttlefish. Feel free to start up again if Price gets off to a fantastic start (ie: 10-0 or something) and Dickey/Happ suck (ERA over 5).

Normally I'm good with almost any discussion (heck, I waste far too much time 'debating' Trump supporters online for fun) but this has gone on far too long (much like Trump...OK, enough politics).

I'm not particularly concerned about who keeps the lead off spot warm for Devon Travis, who does has the OBP skills we all desire.  We seem to forget that he was probably the bright spot of the 2015 season before the team started winning consistently.

In Kevin Pillar news, did you know that he never takes his uniform off and eats nothing but hotdogs?   https://www.facebook.com/Schneiders/videos/1130498063666895/?comment_id=1130747603641941&comment_tracking={%22tn%22%3A%22R4%22}

" (how do you do it uglyone? you seem to be the master)"

just make sure you paste it again in the preview page, if the edit box is empty.

An interesting idea... A-Rod has just 2 years left on his contract... if the Jays let EE and Bautista go next winter, as expected, and no one steps up and takes over DH should the Jays go after A-Rod after 2017? He would be 42 so odds are if he is chasing records he'd only care about playing time as by then he will have made over $400 million in his career. Guess it is a wait and see if he still is hitting then as he is well past the age where a single bad year gets you written off unless you still have millions owed to you.

should the Jays go after A-Rod after 2017?

Let's hope the organization has better options than that! (Ron Blomberg maybe?)

Some interesting possibilities being mentioned by Gibbons today as the final roster decisions approach:

(tweet by Mike Wilner:)
In pre-game chat, Gibby said Andy Burns could make team if EE starts on DL, also brought up Leon for 'pen spot unsolicited.

Here's the stats on hits per plate appearance

PA H/PA Status
Ben Revere† 245 0.294 Left
Danny Valencia† 173 0.277 Left
Devon Travis 240 0.275 Injured
Jose Reyes† 309 0.265 Left
Kevin Pillar 622 0.262
Josh Donaldson 709 0.260
E. Carrera 193 0.244
E. Encarnacion 626 0.233

just make sure you paste it again in the preview page, if the edit box is empty.

Great thanks.

Here's the stats on hits per plate appearance

What was the point of this metric? (aside from implicitly favouring players who don't walk)

Exposing the #2 hitters who fatten their BA with first-inning sac bunts for the frauds they are?

A 6 man rotation to start the year could:
1. Reduce chance of injury to sp.
2. Possibly make sp perform better due to extra day rest
and most importantly:
3. Figure out if Sanchez/Floyd are for real

Chances are that after a couple times through the rotation one sp will be terrible and will lose their starting spot, so it really wouldn't impact Stroman's Cy Young chance.

In the event the 6 man rotation lasts for a long time and Stroman's Cy Young chances are negatively impacted, it would mean that all 6 pitchers are pitching well and are healthy which would be great for the team.

Also, I think Stroman's high for IP is 165. A lot of people dont think he can handle a full workload due to his small size. And I'm talking professional scouts, not just fans (as teams passed on him during the draft due to his size).

Maybe Stroman making a few less starts a season, whether due to a 6 man rotation or just giving him a few starts off over the course of the season is a good thing.

Perhaps we could have a 6-man rotation and an 8-man bullpen, and a bench consisting of Josh Thole.   I have a hunch that that would stimulate a bit of debate in these quarters!

Jeff Blair went on record last week during a Prime Time Sports spot (or was it his own show in the morning?) to say that Devon Travis might not be back at all this year, and if he does make it back it won't be before August.

I'm calling for Tulo to have a career year this summer. Russell as well. I'm very curious to see how Conner Greene does this summer. I wonder if he can become a solid pitcher next year like Stroman in his first year in the rotation. Based on numbers and pedigree, are those two pitchers even comparable as prospects?

I hope they open the dome earlier than normal since they've fixed the roof rails and motor from 1989.

I don't really want a 6 man rotation. I just want to figure out if Sanchez and Floyd are for real and can be quality SPs.

How else could the Jays know?

so it really wouldn't impact Stroman's Cy Young chance.

I would hope that not a single decision is made all year with an idea that, as a result, a particular player might or might not win an award. I am hoping that this kind of talk in this thread has only been in jest.

Yeah Chuck I was thinking the same thing.

All I care about is the team's success.

I'd actually prefer the team to have a great year with Stroman not pitching that great if possible.

"If he lasts the year with an ERA in the 3s, he's probably worth a QO. You never know, he might like it here."


IMO, if Floyd is healthy, then he'll out pitch a lot of starters in the Jays depth chart after Stroman. The issue with him has never been performance; it has been whether he can stay healthy. I want him in the rotation, but at the end of the day, if the club thinks Sanchez has turned the corner as a pitcher, then they'd have to run with it because the upside far exceeds the alternatives (or put him in AAA as a stand-in to avoid the pen but that's not going to happen). The only way around this might be if they start Estrada on the DL, which would allow them to put Sanchez and Floyd in the rotation for at least a few weeks while Estrada recovers.

I'm never going to complain about having too much depth. This is a great problem to have. The issue in this case is that if healthy, Floyd might be a better pitcher than a lot of the current rotation, and if a light switch has gone off in Sanchez's arm that has allowed him to command his FB and improve his control, then he has a chance to be better than a lot of the Jays rotation as well. You can't wish Dickey and Happ were gone either because what happens if Floyd's arm explodes, Sanchez can't find the strike zone in the regular season, and Estrada's back is still wonky? Never wish to have less depth, it's never a good scenario.

There's a Fangraphs article endorsing Sanchez as the #5 starter, and it echoes my opinion. I don't take much, if anything out of ST numbers, but Sanchez has never had this type of control at any level. I'd be surprised if you took any 20 IP sample out of his entire pro career and seen this level of control. It's either a load of luck or maybe it means something. I really want to see how it translates to the regular season against big league lineups.

Jays deciding to put beatings on all our traded prospects, seems like. First Norris, now today it's Boyd's turn.

What was the point of this metric? (aside from implicitly favouring players who don't walk)

Sorry was a continuation from an earlier post. Pillar may get better pitches to hit as leadoff hitter with Donaldson and crowd behind him. While he doesn't walk much he has always been a good contact hitter- even in the minors- and a different mix of pitches may therefore play in his favour. Time will tell.

a different mix of pitches may therefore play in his favour.

Could well be. Per an interview linked to in this thread, it doesn't sound like Pillar intends to change his approach any time soon. Woks? Woks? Is someone making a stir fry?

John Northy

Did you hear the latest about The Donald?

Apparently, (scouts honour, would I lie to you?) his campaign manager, a Mr. Edward Harnsborough the Third was killed today when he opened a package (devoid of a return address) delivered to "The Donald" and Mr Harnsborough was (to quote the AP press release) "Cruelly devoured by a cabal of carnivorous cuttlefish." The Donald was almost distraught, saying, "I intend to nuke ISIS over this dastardly attack!" AP says he then ordered two American Nuclear Carrier Battle Groups to be prepared to launch the attack when he was reminded he must first win the election to be allowed to play with his fleets." "Drats" The Donald replied.

John, by any chance, is your personal fishbowl of Cuttlefish empty at present? Just askin'...

Gibbons was prescient in mentioning Burns and Leon to the media before today's game.  Both were great today, and I have a feeling that both will be in a Jays uniform at some point this season.

I hadn't paid too much attention to Burns before this year (unlike the prospect watchers who have been watching him for years), and I see he clocked in at only #22 on the Batter's Box pre-season list of top prospects -- and he wasn't even protected from the Rule 5 draft.  And maybe his ceiling is only "utility player" -- we will see.  But you've gotta like a player who played today at 3 positions (SS, 3B and 1B) and contributed a double and a single. His spring OPS stands at 1.145.

I was very surprised that Burns wasn't protected in the rule 5 - he's always looked like a good utility prospect to me, although he's been better than ever in his SSS this spring. 

Leon has to be one of the front runners for the bottom spots in the pen.  He's had an interesting career path, primarily a career reliever with time in Mexico, a couple of seasons largely lost to injuries and two years - 2013/14 - as a starter.  He throws four pitches and his FB averaged just under 92 last year with the A's.  Anyone have any opinions on the guy?

Former Jays news - Casey Jansen, on a minor league contract, was released by the Padres, and Tiny Tim Collins has to get a second Tommy John.  Good luck to both of them.

Mike Schmidt has penned a piece expressing the same view as Goose Gossage albeit a lot more eloquently. He criticizes the flamboyant behaviour of some of today's players, and particularly mentions Jose Bautista's bat flip. I don't like some of Bautista's eye-rolling, complaining,etc. with the umpire at the plate at times, but I saw absolutely nothing wrong with the bat flip in the context of the moment. Players in all the other sports express emotion at times so why do baseball players have to be robots ? Schmidt's article is on the Sportsnet site by the way.

When I read about Collins, I immediately thought about Osuna.

The Jays caught a break with not protecting Burns on the 40 man roster - wish they had taken Jimenez off the 40 man roster during winter as they did with Jenkins, with his spring performance Jimenez will not survive the waiver wire - Jenkins really does look like he's in the best shape of his life, the baby fat is gone - maybe Jenkins becomes a decent middle reliever.
Regarding Sanchez/Floyd - I wonder if the Jays FO had an understanding with Floyd that he would be in the rotation if he was healthy - Sanchez probably didn't have a realistic shot at the rotation unless injuries occurred.

The Jays will almost certainly need six or seven (or more) starting pitchers over the course of the 2016 season. Someone is going to get hurt or underperform. So, if the Jays go with Stroman/Estrada/Dickey/Happ/Floyd, who do they call on if they need a #6? Chavez? Hutchison? Sanchez?

The thing about Sanchez is that if he's for real (improved control, secondary stuff, and maybe durability), he could be a game-changer in the rotation. Good setup men are valuable, but not nearly as valuable as front-of-the-rotation SPs.

This is what I wrote about Sanchez last March: "I think there is a good chance he puts it together as a starting pitcher. He's young, he's talented, he continues to refine his game, and he seems to be gaining a lot of confidence. And he has really limited his walks over his last 50-odd innings. No guarantees, of course, but I'm looking forward to see how the next couple of years go for him."

Feeling pretty good about that assessment at the moment.

John, agreed, The Donald's a little older than Justin, and his smile ain't as pretty.. That's what elections are all about, right? ;-)

Baseball Tonight just wrapped up their top 100. IMO they overrated relievers, bat-only 1B/DHs and glove-only SS, but that's just my opinion. Thought it was a solid if old school list.

This his how it broke down per team:



TOR (6): #7 Donaldson, #21 Bautista, #38 En’cion, #39 Tulo, #70 Stroman, #90 Martin
CHC (6): #9 Arrieta, #27 Rizzo, #28 Bryant, #40 Lester, #43 Heyward, #95 Zobrist
BOS (6): #15 Price, #36 Kimbrel, #56 Betts, #72 Bogaerts, #73 Ortiz, #99 Pedroia
PIT (5): #5 McCutchen, #32 Cole, #74 Marte, #82 Melancon, #87 Liriano
DET (5): #10 Cabrera, #75 Upton, #81 Zimmerman, #91 Martinez, #98 Kinsler
KCR (5): #23 Davis, #46 Cain, #61 Perez, #63 Gordon, #71 Hosmer
NYM (5): #26 Harvey, #30 Degrom, #37 Syndergaard, #60 Cespedes, #92 Familia
CLE (5): #34 Kluber, #65 Lindor, #66 Kipnis, #79 Carrasco, #80 Brantley
STL (5): #47 Wainwright, #54 Molina, #68 Rosenthal, #69 Carpenter, #88 Wacha
LAD (4): #3 Kershaw, #48 Jansen, #62 Gonzalez, #97 Seager
HOU (4): #13 Keuchel, #16 Correa, #29 Altuve, #93 Springer
SFG (4): #11 Bumgarner, #17 Posey, #58 Cueto, #78 Crawford
BAL (4): #18 Machado, #45 Davis, #50 Jones, #85 Britton
NYY (4): #22 Chapman, #35 Betances, #52 Miller, #76 Tanaka
TEX (4): #42 Hamels, #51 Darvish, #55 Beltre, #59 Fielder
LAA (3): #1 Trout, #83 Simmons, #94 Pujols
WSH (3): #2 Harper, #14 Scherzer, #44 Strasburg
ARZ (3): #4 Goldschmidt, #6 Greinke, #57 Pollock
MIA (3): #8 Stanton, #19 Fernandez, #67 Gordon
CHX (3): #12 Sale, #41 Abreu, #89 Frazier
SEA (3): #20 Hernandez, #49 Cano, #53 Cruz
COL (2): #24 Arenado, #64 Gonzalez
TBR (2): #31 Archer, #84 Longoria
MIL (2): #86 Braun, #100 Lucroy
OAK (1): #33 Gray
CIN (1): #25 Votto
ATL (1): #77 Freeman
MIN (1): #96 Sano
PHI (0): ---
SDP (0): ---

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/03/24/aaron-sanchez-should-be-a-starter-for-blue-jays

"If they have five guys better than Aaron Sanchez and he does not fit their rotation, they are going to win 150 games,” said one NL scout.

“He was 94-96 mph — with command — in the seventh inning of his fourth start of the spring,” said another veteran evaluator.

“Sanchez is their best starter right now, not the best No. 5 candidate, but No. 1 and that includes Marcus Stroman,” said a seasoned scout. “But despite all that, there is this strong Gavin Floyd undercurrent floating around here.”

"All I know is that Sanchez could start opening day for us,” said an NL scout. “Plus about six other teams I know.”

--------

"The Blue Jays’ new high performance guru has some innovative ideas for this season.

One is that when on the road following a night game, the entire team will eat breakfast together the next morning at 9 a.m.

Ah, that might be a good way for college football teams to bond 15 mornings a year, but after a night game in the majors, most players wake up around high noon.

And then they have lunch.

“I heard about that,” said one player. “There is no chance I am getting up on a few hours sleep to eat, so I can go to the park and be with the same 24 guys at two that afternoon.”

Who could have predicted, back when whats-his-name was signed for a lot of money by you-know-who, that one of the Jays' biggest problems in March would be that they would have too many viable starting pitching candidates. Baseball is a funny game.

At some point, the Jays are going to need all of those starting pitchers. The question is what to do with the extra ones while all of this sorts itself out.

My prediction is that somebody is going to go on the DL with some injury or other - real or fake - to bring the number down to five.

The depth strategy in the rotation when the offense and defense figure to be anywhere from top 1-5 in the league and the bullpen has three pretty darn good relievers to close out games was the right call. Sanchez potentially turning into something right out of ST definitely increases that depth, but when a projected 1-2 win SP in Chavez is essentially the 7th starter, and someone with a combined ~4 WAR the past two seasons has to start in AAA as the team's 8th starter, that's a pretty solid situation.

With that said, injuries will happen. Ineffectiveness will happen. They will need all 8 options they currently have, and possibly more. That's why the people calling to trade Dickey are placing too much emphasis on the "top 5" guys. The Jays will need more than that over 162 games. How they manage to keep everyone reasonably stretched out when a need arises will be the tricky part.

I do think there was some type of understanding/agreement with Floyd and Shapiro about Floyd having a rotation spot if he stayed healthy. That was reasonable when the assumption was Sanchez would be in the pen, but I don't think anyone in the FO expected Sanchez to pitch like he has. Again, great problem to have, but they'll need to find a way to keep everyone happy. Estrada starting the year on the DL seems like common sense at this point. He's had, what, two innings this spring? That would buy the Jays at least a couple of regular season starts from Floyd/Sanchez before they have to make a real decision.

"Who could have predicted, back when whats-his-name was signed for a lot of money by you-know-who, that one of the Jays' biggest problems in March would be that they would have too many viable starting pitching candidates. Baseball is a funny game"

to be fair, and honestly not to toot my own horn, but I'm pretty sure I predicted exactly this scenario in which we were forced to hand starting spots to expensive mediocrities instead of cheaper higher upside options that were actually earning those spots.

Starting Depth comp to last year:

Stroman Dickey Buehrle Estrada Hutch Sanchez Norris (Doubront/Wolf/Francis)
Stroman Dickey Happ Estrada Hutch Sanchez Chavez (Floyd/Penny/Hernandez)

".... I predicted exactly this scenario in which we were forced to hand starting spots to expensive mediocrities instead of cheaper higher upside options...."

I think those categories are still quite murky.  Can we wait a few months, see which pitchers are doing well and which ones are mediocre, and then decide whose predictions were accurate?  It's a bit early at this point.

What's more puzzling about Ugly's claim is that the high upside arm may still end up getting a rotation spot, so I'm not sure what "expensive mediocrity" is blocking that from happening. Floyd has been every bit as deserving of a rotation spot and has a track record (albeit one muddled by injuries the past few years).

As far as this year's depth vs. last year's depth: Sanchez at this time last year is not the same as what he appears to be this year. Hell, we don't even know what he'll be this year, but at least he's shown way more to suggest he could be a big league starter in 2016 than in 2015. Using his name as depth to insinuate that it was similar to last year is purposely misleading. Now he might actually be a different pitcher (remains to be seen) so it's apples and oranges. Chavez has a 3.6 WAR the last two seasons combined and you're grouping him in with Norris who was 21-years old with very limited upper minors experience at this time last year. Floyd (if healthy) is clearly ahead of the reclamation projects you have grouped him with from last year. And so on. Buehrle over Happ, I will give you.

I know anyone who suggests that any aspect of the 2016 team is in any way superior to 2015, or any move made by Shapiro is superior to a move made by AA, is blasphemous in your eyes, but it's pretty cut and dry in this case. Hell, most of the SP depth this season was acquired/drafted by AA, so no one is slighting your G.O.A.T. GM by saying the SP depth is in good shape.

On a topic unrelated to Price/AA, turns out the Reds were apparently kicking in $8M in the Bruce deal that fell through. So if the Jays were trading $3M in Saunders, and getting $8M from the Reds, then they were only adding $1.5M to the payroll by adding Bruce's contract (or $2.5M counting his buyout). I know there was talk that this deal may have indicated that the Jays have more money to spend, but it doesn't appear this particular deal would have added much. The Jays may have caught a break anyway if Saunders stays healthy, even though I do think Bruce has bounce back potential with the bat.

Aaron Sanchez has pitched against predominant Minor League hitters, by a large margin. The number of tough Left-Handed hitters he's faced is almost non-existent. All he's proven this Spring is that he's still an exceptional pitchers despite putting on 25 lbs. When he's earned a Starter's role, we'll know it.

Did Brad Penny retire, or am I confusing him with some other aged pitcher?

"but it's pretty cut and dry in this case"

It is.

Which is why the cut and dry case needs only to list the names, and why your case needs paragraphs of explanations.

Penny retired after 4 rough spring outings.

Lots of comments online - recently from several scouts and Fagersrtom at Fangraphs has a good article - about Sanchez being the best choice for the rotation.  Certainly the prospect of a deserving Sanchez in the pen is the downside of raising the floor of the rotation instead of the ceiling.

As to the pen, Stoeten has a fun article about David Aardsma and the annual battle for the last few spots on the roster.

http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/3/25/david-aardsma-gets-it

So who do people like for the final few spots in the pen?  Plenty of solid spring outings thus far - Girodo, Venditte, Leon, Tepera - 1 ER over 24 outings between them - and guys like Aardsma, Jenkins, Delebar, Choate and Biagini have also been solid. 

I've gotta figure Roberto Herndandez doesn't make the team as he earns 1.25 million if he does - i assume he opts out.  But the rest seems like a crap shoot.  I assume it comes down to options and managing assets.

Well, if you believe what various scouts are saying, based on how he looks this spring, Sanchez could be the opening day starter for a number of teams -- he looks that good. It's obvious he's earned a shot as a major-league starting pitcher to start the season. The question is whether he'll be denied that shot (at least temporarily) for extraneous reasons, like managing his overall workload or extracting as much performance as possible from Floyd while he's healthy and capable of starting (or, perhaps, honouring a promise that was made to him when he signed with the Jays this off-season).

"What's more puzzling about Ugly's claim is that the high upside arm may still end up getting a rotation spot, so I'm not sure what "expensive mediocrity" is blocking that from happening."

the point is only that, quite easily, Stroman-Dickey-Floyd-Stroman may be our 4 best SP, but we won't be able to use them as such, as we invested $30m in 3 other guys.

"Aaron Sanchez has pitched against predominant Minor League hitters, by a large margin. " How is this true, do you have a tally? The best data is OppQual from Baseball Reference. See Sanchez's opponent strength here it has averaged 8.3 or on average above AAA hitters. Stroman has faced hitters of similar quality on the same measure. I think we know now that Sanchez has earned a rotation spot. So has Floyd... and that Estrada will possibly open the season on the DL.

You keep using that list, I do not think it means what you think It means.

(not being snarky, merely disagreeing with jest)

"So who do people like for the final few spots in the pen?"

to be honest I think it's still totally up in the air.

obviously one of sanchez/floyd and chavez are in there, and Loup is injured (perhaps longterm), so 5 spots are taken, and there are 2 spots open.

The problem is that none of the lefties have really impressed, while a good number of righties have - Biagini, Delabar, Hernandez, Leon all have been good so far.

I don't even think I can lean towards anyone yet - their performance going forward will decide this one I think.

Full props for the Inigo Montoya! 

"Which is why the cut and dry case needs only to list the names, and why your case needs paragraphs of explanations."


Without any context, you can make a lot of lists that mean absolutely nothing. Unfortunately, your names were listed without any context in order to fit your argument. Felix Doubront losing significant velocity leading to his decline is irrelevant in your mind; just type his name out and he's officially depth on par with Floyd (whose velocity is unchanged). Sorry, I'm rambling here. Just list names. No explanation needed.

the names speak for themselves.

some are better than others, but that goes both ways.

"the point is only that, quite easily, Stroman-Dickey-Floyd-Stroman may be our 4 best SP, but we won't be able to use them as such, as we invested $30m in 3 other guys."


Why not? If those guys (I'm assuming you mean Sanchez instead of Stroman as the 4th name) are the best guys, then chances are they'll get most of the starts. The five guys who starts won't necessarily be the five guys who finish. Even if Sanchez starts in the pen, there is nothing stopping them from stretching him out later except a minor inconvenience. Reality is, Floyd is coming off injury, Sanchez still needs to show his command/control/off-speed stuff is legit in a regular season environment, Estrada is battling injury, Stroman still hasn't pitched an entire season, etc. You can't just have 4-5 guys. If you have a lot of depth, some times a surprise candidate (Sanchez) might not get the immediate opportunity, but that doesn't mean he won't.

zero chance happ or estrada goes to the pen. they'd have to be below replacement for months before that happens.

Assuming everyone stays healthy all season, then yes, barring catastrophic performance you probably won't see Happ or Estrada in the pen, but what are the odds of all five SP's staying healthy? I guess my point is if Sanchez proves he's one of the best SP's on the team, then they'll find a way to get him a lot of starts. Maybe not initially if Floyd gets the nod, but certainly over the course of the season. Regardless, you can make the argument that Happ is coming off a better season than everyone in the Jays rotation (3.3 WAR) and had an adjustment made to his repertoire that directly lead to the results. Then you have Estrada who some consider a potential FIP buster based on the way he pitched last year. Maybe those guys pitched over their heads, and I'd be inclined to agree with that, but you can't just yank them out of the rotation either.

I get what you're saying, and I share your opinion that Sanchez should get the shot if he proves to be ready based on upside alone, but I think he will end up getting a shot regardless. The depth isn't holding him back; it's only going to help the team manage injuries a lot better.

Sanchez vs lefties, Bautista vs his critics and who knows...

Snachez:

His 2015 splits...(these are directly from the Jays site and their STATS section on Sanchez)

vs LEFT:  45 innings, 48 hits, 21 runs, 29 BB, 22 SO, Ave .282, Whip 1.71
vs Right:  47.1      , 26      , 14        , 15     , 39      ,        .163,           0.87

His 2016 Spring stats (YES I KNOW - SSS)...

vs LEFT:  10 innings, 5 hits, 1 runs, 2 BB, 9 SO, Ave .156, Whip 0.10
vs Right:  10            , 10      , 2       , 1     , 10    ,        .256,          1.10

Bautista

Bautista LIKE almost all Dominicans/Latin players grew up playing in a much more demonstrative environment than North American players did. As we all know.

Bautista is paid a lot of money to hit homers and get on base. He has observed countless thousands of pitches thrown to him and he is VERY good at knowing which are in the strike zone. In the strike zone - even by small percentages of inches. Recently, TV has introduced the Strike Zone Box which shows MUCH MORE accurately if a pitch is in the strike zone. Before that - players couldn't review the tape of the game and KNOW they'd been jobbed by an Ump, earning a 50th of them, because he just didn't accurately "call' what the computer obviously saw. Bautista does not suffer fools gladly (a reason no doubt why he doesn't hang out with me) and he also doesn't suffer Umps gladly when his trained eye differs from theirs. So occasionally, very occasionally, he takes mild exception to their calls. Mild - within the context of his more demonstrative culture.

As to "The Bat Flip" - he'd have had to be a Borg (a nod to Star Trek fans) for him not to be over the moon delighted about his great home run and he'd have had to have no emotion to not react in some way. Personally, I LOVED his FLIP and have NO negatives to say about it!

On the ROTATION... For 2016 AND going forward IF Sanchez has put it together - as this spring might imply - then the Jays are VASTLY better served to get him in the rotation and see if he can run with it. VASTLY. He can always be put back into the pen. Clearly, if Sanchez "clicks" then the ONLY question about him is, "Is he better than Stroman?"

Osuna... I feel sorry for him. Clearly, his operation has scared him. He is afraid that IF he's a starter his health may suffer...he is confident (because of his success, and health, in the pen) that it won't IF he stays where he is. This is BAD NEWS for him and for the Jays. If a man doesn't accept the "challenge" in his mind then it is counter productive to FORCE him to take it on. Osuna NEEDS either his uncle or father to convince him that the millions more he'll earn in the rotation are worth the possibility that his arm could blow up in either role. He NEEDS to man up. BUT - he can't, and shouldn't be, forced to. He is still just a kid. IF - he freely accepts the challenge of starting... WOW... Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna looks like a top three for the ages.

Surely, the season has started by now, hasn't it? I NEED my fix!!!

"...quite easily, Stroman-Dickey-Floyd-Stroman may be our 4 best SP..."

Oh come on, after the incredible season that Estrada had last year?  Are you really putting him in the "expensive mediocre" category?  Especially if you include the playoffs, he was clearly one of the best pitchers in the league.  (Now go ahead and call him "lucky" or whatever, attempt to discredit him with BABIP or FIP or whatever, but I prefer to judge a pitcher by his actual results, and Estrada was a great pitcher last year.)

"I get what you're saying, and I share your opinion that Sanchez should get the shot if he proves to be ready based on upside alone"

It's more that I want both Sanchez and Floyd to both get a shot in the rotation to start the year (if they continue to excel this spring), as they might be our 2nd and 3rd best pitchers.

I agree that our depth this year is somewhat safer than last year, but it comes at the expense of flexibility that may prevent us from playing our best.

Without getting into the David Price question, I think Shapiro has done a good job of building depth for the rotation. Last year, the Jays took a real gamble when they put Norris into the starting rotation. This year, they have more options.  That's not a criticism of Anthopoulos -- it's not his fault that Stroman was injured -- but it's simply true that a single injury in 2015 left the Jays forced to put Norris into the rotation, when he was clearly (in retrospect) too young and raw for a starting job.  This year, if there's an injury, the Jays have at least 3 good back-ups available (probably Hutch, Chavez and Floyd).  That's much better than the situation a year ago.

"....it comes at the expense of flexibility that may prevent us from playing our best...."

See, I don't really think the Jays have lost their flexibility.  They have several good pitchers who can be either starters or relievers, and they'll probably have Hutchison available in Buffalo.   If one pitcher is performing badly, you can promote Hutch from Buffalo, or you can transition someone from the bullpen to the rotation.

I think the Jays ultimately will go with their best pitchers in the rotation.  But you have to define "best" as "reliably good" rather than "high upside."  I'm a big fan of Sanchez, and he might ultimately pitch better than Dickey this year, but you can't just dump Dickey into the bullpen because  you think Sanchez MIGHT be better.  You have to play the odds, according to which one is likely to be the most reliable over a full season.  If someone like Dickey or Happ has an ERA of 4.80 in April, you can't just assume that Sanchez or Floyd will definitely be better.  There's a pretty good chance that Dickey or Happ will improve over the course of the season, whereas Sanchez and Floyd are still gambles.  (And I say that as a fan of both of them.)

"Oh come on, after the incredible season that Estrada had last year?"

I liked him after his awful 2014, because I thought he was better than that, and like him after his great 2015, even though he's not as good as that. Marco is what he is - a 32 year old who has yet to spend a full season as an mlb SP. He's had 4 years where he's thrown at least 50ip as an SP, and he's put up these numbers:

2012: 3.76era (93era-)
2013: 3.87era (100era-)
2014: 4.96era (131era-)
2015: 3.28era (80era-)
Total: 3.93era (100era-)

Solid mediocre numbers, but not in full SP duty so not all that dependable. I like him better than Happ, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if all of stroman, sanchez, floyd, dickey were better.

"... I wouldn't be surprised in the least if all of stroman, sanchez, floyd, dickey were better...."

Nobody would be surprised by anything in baseball, but surely you have to prioritize the reliably good pitcher, rather than the 23-year-old who has never pitched a full season as a starter in the majors -- or the often-injured veteran who hasn't pitched a full season since 2012.  To me, if Rogers won't provide $200-million for David Price, you have to prioritize the more reliable guys like Estrada and Happ, rather than gambling on Sanchez and Floyd.  The latter two might be brilliant, or they might be flops.  That's not a chance you can take in a year when the Jays have an excellent chance at the playoffs.  It makes more sense for the Jays to let Sanchez and Floyd fight their way into the rotation, rather than be handed a spot without much of a back-up available.

See, I think people are exaggerating the "reliability" of guys like Happ, Estrada, and Chavez. IMO, there's nothing reliable about them whatsoever. They could easily be non-mlb calibre starters this year, without surprising anyone.

"Reliable" is a relative term, but I'd say that Estrada and Happ are easily more reliable (over the course of a full season) than Floyd and Sanchez -- no matter how good the latter two have looked this spring. 

And I'm not denying that Floyd and Sanchez have the potential to be very very good this year.  But they also have the potential to crap out. That's why, in my view, they are less reliable, and you don't slot them in as safe choices for a full season.

I just don't like guaranteeing spots to guys who've never proven able to hold those spots on a consistent basis.

Arnold Leon has been the stand out of the new relievers. A good spring training doesn't mean a good regular season but he is in the fight for the last spot in the pen. Is Leon the 2016 Colt Hynes?

The issue with counting on Sanchez is that he has no prior track record to go on, so while he could produce better than most of the rotation if his command/etc issues have been fixed, it's still an uncertainty. Happ and Estrada are MLB starters. Mediocre ones? Possibly. However, with the value of each win being what it is, especially for the Jays in 2016, those two present the type of value that someone like Sanchez (young, unproven) and to a lesser extent Floyd (injury history) can't. Now, I am a big supporter of Floyd as I have mentioned before. If he's healthy, he should be in the rotation. However, does he have a case over Stroman, Dickey, Happ, and Estrada? Based on his recent injury history, you can't place him over those guys with any sort of certainty, even though he could be better than half of them if he stays healthy. Same with Sanchez, but for different reasons. Track record is also why I'd favor Floyd over Sanchez, but the Jays need a young pitcher to pan out and join Stroman if they want to sustain success beyond 2016, so if Sanchez is for real by some chance, then they have to experiment with it.

Ultimately, I think Floyd in the rotation and Sanchez joining afterwards (May-ish) might be the best compromise. Limits Sanchez's IP so he can finish at a respectable number (say 150-170) and gives the team a chance to see if Floyd is healthy/back. My hunch is that Shapiro wants Floyd to start (might have been his sales pitch to get him to sign) and is getting resistance from other members of the FO/coaching staff. If they choose to go with Sanchez instead, then Floyd as the long man isn't the worst scenario, but stretching him out again might be more difficult than stretching Sanchez out. Chavez is at least used to switching roles.

However, the fact that we're at a point where Chavez and Hutch are afterthoughts in the rotation conversation is definitely a testament to the depth of the rotation. I would have argued that Chavez was one of the top 5 SP's on the team two months ago, and now he might be 7th. Good problem to have.

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=319878
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=319880

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=319894
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=319911
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=319912

These comments appear to me that trading for one season of an established veteran is an openly considered idea. Given that Ezequiel Carrera is not either losing or winning the struggle for backup/4th OF; therefore, can he be trading to some other team(s) for an established veteran. So far Ceciliani is running away in that struggle but the Jays need a reliable, established veteran who can steal, provide some hittings -- clutch ones, and play all OFs. I can think of Ichiro with the Marlins. For Marlins, that team seems often to rely on1 allstar, -- Stanton -- talented young players, supported by veterans -- Ichiro, Prado etc. So how about trading Carrera and Delabar to the Marlins for Ichiro ? Thus Pompey can keep improving in Buffalo without the shuttle until September. Can Delabar and Carrera can get more playing time ?

For the leadoff choice, given the spring training performance and EE still not ready, how about a Saunders, Pillar, Ceciliani outfield and JoeyBats DH. Eventually, Ceciliani is going to cool off in hitting. He shall then be sent to Buffalo, opening a spot for EE. Or Lake can play too. The idea requires one hitter whose identity is hot hitting streak.

Given SKinNJ's idea, I recommend Sanchez to start in Buffalo. Triple-A teams often showcase MLB veterans or prospects who are on the verge to play in MLB. In essence, Sanchez facing these hitters as a starter is going to produce the track record while his issues can be fixed and development be continued. The idea that minor league performance track record is reliable to predict or preview a young player performance in MLb is also applicable to hitters. So shall Junior Lake, Domonic Brown, Matt Dominguez, Pompey play in Buffalo more ? Opinions from posts suggest so. Lake's situation is sticky to 40-men roster because of no option left.

"Arnold Leon has been the stand out of the new relievers. A good spring training doesn't mean a good regular season but he is in the fight for the last spot in the pen. Is Leon the 2016 Colt Hynes?"


That last spot will be interesting because unless they get rid of the idea of replacing Loup with a lefty, then it's one spot for three guys they could potentially lose (Biagini back to the Giants, or Leon/Delabar to waivers). If Estrada starts on the DL, then they can put Sanchez/Floyd both in the rotation, and open up a spot to keep 2/3 of Biagini/Leon/Delabar, at least temporarily. The fact that Atkins traded for Leon might imply they see something in him so it wouldn't shock me if he made the team, but then they potentially lose Biagini. Not a fan of Delabar so losing him wouldn't be a big loss. It's been 2+ years since 2013 and relievers are volatile. Time to move on.

the Jays need a reliable, established veteran who can steal, provide some hittings -- clutch ones, and play all OFs. I can think of Ichiro with the Marlins.

Why on earth would the Blue Jays want Ichiro Suzuki over Carrera or Lake or any other in-house option?

See, I think people are exaggerating the "reliability" of guys like Happ, Estrada, and Chavez. IMO, there's nothing reliable about them whatsoever.

Please don't so horribly mangle the word 'reliable' to imply Floyd is as reliable as those three (since he can't be any less reliable than "nothing reliable... whatsoever"). I mean, unless you're relying on him to be injured for most of the year with an elbow issue, which you would have an argument for.

The problem is that none of the lefties have really impressed, while a good number of righties have - Biagini, Delabar, Hernandez, Leon all have been good so far.

you don't like Chad Girodo Uglyone?  Pretty stellar minor league numbers, but the 3 HRs in 160 IPs really stands out, and the kids having a great spring so far.  Venditte could be good against lefties as well.  Didn't we sign lefty Daniel Schlereth a while back too?  Is the guy injured? 

I don't think the Jays would have signed Choate unless they were pretty determined to have two LHP in the bullpen.  I'm not sure whether it will be Choate or Venditte (or maybe even Girodo), but I think it's fairly likely that the bullpen will have 2 lefties. That leaves one remaining slot, to be fought over by Leon and Delabar and Biagini, unless someone such as Estrada opens the season on the DL.

It's actually difficult to predict the final 1 or 2 bullpen slots because it could depend on last-minute deals to juggle the roster -- for example a deal with San Francisco to allow Biagini to be demoted to Buffalo.  Who knows what kinds of deals could be in motion.  This is the time of year when everyone is looking for ways to solve the roster crunch.

keep 2/3 of Biagini/Leon/Delabar, at least temporarily. The fact that Atkins traded for Leon might imply they see something in him so it wouldn't shock me if he made the team, but then they potentially lose Biagini.

Leon was acquired for cash, so it's not that big an investment for Atkins.  cash might also be the deciding factor with Delebar, the team can still cut him for a fraction of his contract, although I'm not sure of the deadline for that decision. 

Biagini being a rule v guy is pretty hard to demote - it's not like you can sneak him through waivers counting on teams having full 40 man rosters- he just gets offered back to San Fran for 25k. 

Gerry, what has stood out for you about Leon?

Aardsma, Girodo, and Jenkins all cut.

I have never seen Leon pitch so I don't know anything about him. Not one blessed thing.

Is he looking good stuff-wise or is he looking good because he has allowed just one hit and no runs in 5 innings? His peripherals show 2 BB and 2 K, so not really impressive on their own.

I see Mark Zwolinski, of the Star, now saying that the Girodo cut means that Choate likely makes the team.

Jenkins is off the 40 man, so that was a no-brainer, even though he did look solid this spring.  But Girodo makes me worry that the team wants to go wtih Choate ...

Chuck, Leon's FB averaged 92 last year and he throws 4 pitches - that's all i know. 

China
I agree with you here.

I don't think it matters who starts, because the Offense and Defense is one of the very best in the game. It only matters about who is the best Reliever. Both can Start, but only Sanchez can be a game-changing Reliever.

Cecil isn't considered  a LHP. He's a setup guy. He's rarely going to be put in to face a tough LHB. So, yes, they need another LHP, preferably one who is comfortable pitching with runners on bases and that would probably have been Loup had he been healthy although he probably needs some tune-up time in the minors. Most people would just pass on Chaote and keep Girodo in the minors.

It might be easier to make a deal for Biagini after he's had a bad outing and the Giants already have a full 40 roster.
Delabar hasn't looked that good in a long time.

I have only seen Leon pitch once so I cannot make a specific report. I just heard that Gibby has been impressed by him.

Players could be lost on waivers if the scouts come back with good reports, but not based on spring training stats. Coming out of spring training there are probably 25 teams who have enough of their own pitchers that they too have tough decisions to make. The other five teams will look over all the other 25 teams for a pitcher or two. That still leaves it unlikely that the Jays will lose a reliever unless he is the best reliever or two out of all the relievers being cut.

I always find the fans overly worry about losing players coming out of ST.

John Lott wrote the Aardsma piece. You can tell it's not Stoeten because the writer did not use 87 words when 4 would suffice.

Thanks for the catch James W - I should've picked up on the brevity of the writing, as well as the whole lack of swearing / insulting fans thing. 

"I recommend Sanchez to start in Buffalo."


I know we've beaten this to death this winter, but if you remove emotion out of the equation and just look at what makes the most sense for the team, to me it always comes down to Sanchez starting the season in AAA. Forget about service time and options. In this scenario, 1) the team gets a chance to see what they have in Floyd, 2) they keep Sanchez stretched out in case of need/when Floyd's arm explodes, and 3) it opens up another spot in the bullpen to keep someone with potentially a long-term career in the pen (Biagini, Leon, whoever). The bullpen would be great with Sanchez in it, but good enough without him. Plus, the added benefit of being able to monitor Sanchez's innings in AAA (maybe give him an innings max per start to avoid ramping his IP totals up by the time he's promoted).

It won't happen, as it appears Sanchez will be in the bigs in some capacity, but if you want to solve the issue without reducing anyone's role, that's probably the best one. Otherwise, my gut still tells me that Sanchez starting the season in the pen and then working back to the rotation in May/June might be the best alternative. It really depends on how the Jays view him. I haven't seen him pitch this spring, so just going by what people are writing, but if the Jays feel he's turned a corner as a SP, then starting him makes sense.

From a talent standpoint, Ceciliani should really be the 4th OF over Carrera and Lake. Better 4th OF skill set, and if his bat is even mediocre he will have value based on his apparent defensive and base running ability. The only difference is he has options while the other two don't, but no one is going to shed a tear if the Jays lose Lake and/or Carrera. The AAA outfield should be able to survive without them (Pompey, Brown, and maybe one of them if they pass waivers) and the 4th OF figures to get a lot of AB's in the bigs so go with the best guy there. Ceciliani should make it.

I'd rather RA Dickey start in AAA than Sanchez.

imo you gamble on the high upside from the start, and if it falters than you go to the safer higher floor plan B.

doesn't make sense to me to do the reverse.

I would also start Sanchez in the majors. I think he's earned that shot this spring. If he falters, send him down. The one thing I would not do is put him in the pen. This is the time to see if he can make it as a starter. The Jays have Storen, Osuna, and Cecil so Sanchez is less needed there anyway.

Gerry ... any updates on Travis, Pentecost and Smoral ?

Travis, Pentecost and Smoral - sounds like a law firm.

I didn't go to spring training this year so I don't have any updates, I only know what I have heard. My minor league guys are busy right now so I will not talk to them for a couple of weeks until the opening day rosters are announced.

Travis is on the major league roster and that means that news about him is controlled. His return date is all speculation now. The only thing I would say is that when he is ready to return he will have been out of baseball for over a year. I don't think he will be in the 15 days in Buffalo and then be ready group, I do think he will need more time in the minors to get back in the flow of playing.

The news on Pentecost is better but I am not sure exactly when he can catch. The intention is to start him as a DH or first baseman to get him some at-bats.

I have heard nothing on Smoral.

Once the opening day rosters are announced we will know some answers and I will then reach out to my contacts to fill in the gaps.

I watched some of Estrada's outing yesterday (MLB TV had the Phillies feed). He's fun to watch - a perfectly ordinary pitcher except for that killer changeup.

I don't know how the Jays are going to resolve their starting pitcher situation. It's a good problem to have.

It's a good problem to have.

No kidding. In addition to Floyd and Sanchez, Chavez and Hutchison would be starters on most teams. This is the deepest Jays staff I can remember in a long time.

There is one other option for Sanchez. Move Chavez into a short role- something Gibbons mused about early in ST - and put Sanchez into a long man role. He's likely to get lots of innings early in the season with Estrada wobbling, Floyd returning from injuries and Happ being Happ.

Pros and coms to each option so will be interesting to see which camp wins out.

I have bought the hyperbole on Sanchez hook line and sinker. Not only do I think he should make the rotation but I think he should start opening day and then start every other game for the rest of the year. No but seriously -- it's clearly time to reboot the Sanchez starting experiment. Just figure out how to get Sanchez starting every 5 games Gibbons, that's your darned job. As for Pillar leading off -- I think it's a terrible idea. The man is a born #9 hitter -- it just doesn't make sense. Nearly any other hitter is a better idea than Pillar but how about the most logical choice: Saunders.

I know we've beaten this to death this winter, but if you remove emotion out of the equation and just look at what makes the most sense for the team, to me it always comes down to Sanchez starting the season in AAA.

It's funny, taking a step back and trying to look at this objectively is what flipped me from wanting Sanchez in the bullpen to him starting. All offseason, I felt it was Osuna who should be the starter long-term, thinking Sanchez's lack of command but electric fastball made him more suited for short stints.

However, looking at how he's pitching NOW and reading all of the reports (including previously linked analysis on whether IP limits actually work), I just don't see how you keep a guy out who appears he can challenge Stroman for staff ace. Certainly, Aaron has the best 'stuff' amongst all the potential starters.

Looking at it another way, I still see Floyd as a person filling the 5th starter slot. I'm starting to see Sanchez as having a real chance at being one of the best young starters in the AL.

some good news....

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
Devon Travis also took some ground balls. Looked right at home. Still a long way to go to build up his strength and conditioning. #BlueJays

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
@vanDreamsdyk Throwing puts strain on more than just the throwing arm. He’s coming off serious surgery. Care was paramount.

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
Thi was Travis’s first time on the field in cleats. He was happy. "It was fricking sick.” #BlueJays

and more...

Jayson Stark @jaysonst
Edwin Encarnacion just put on a show in his first BP session with the Blue Jays regulars this… instagram.com/p/BDa3oilPGww/

"As for Pillar leading off -- I think it's a terrible idea. The man is a born #9 hitter -- it just doesn't make sense. Nearly any other hitter is a better idea than Pillar but how about the most logical choice: Saunders."

Agreed it's a bad choice. I still think the best solution is just to move everybody up a slot. Heck, even if Travis were healthy this would probably be our best lineup - Donaldso, Bautista, EE, Tulo are our best hitters, and should get the most at bats imo.


"No kidding. In addition to Floyd and Sanchez, Chavez and Hutchison would be starters on most teams. This is the deepest Jays staff I can remember in a long time."

Just to be a spoilsport....neither chavez nor hutch could hold onto a starting spot last year, and neither estrada nor happ were able to the year prior. And Sanchez and Floyd have not shown they can start games at this point.

The Media is enthralled with Aaron Sanchez starting, but that means absolutely nothing. The Fanbase is adamant about Aaron Sanchez starting, but that means nothing. As much fun as this is, the decision rests with the Jays and probably rests with the GM. The Big Picture has changed, no longer are they planning for the six months of the Season, but planning for the seventh month as well. The PostSeason has now permanently become part of the Jays' Season and must be included in all planning.

One of Ezequiel Carrera or Junior Lake makes the Roster as 4th OF, while the other they hope clears waivers. Those Outfielders who have options/not on 40-man go down, even if the decision is close. Darrell Ceciliani, Dalton Pompey and Domonic Brown will be in AAA as OF options for sure.

Drew Hutchison has an option left and will go down, even if the decision is close. He's one of the few that can be counted on for future needs. The remaining options must be carried on the Roster. Regardless who starts, Gavin Floyd, Jesse Chavez and Aaron Sanchez will all Start for the Jays this year, especially with the Season so long.

The Bullpen is different, it's composition must be prefect. The Jays play 17 straight games verses the A.L.East - Tampa (4), Boston (7), New York (3), Baltimore (3) - and they can't lose a series to them. The very best people need to be in the Bullpen right away. Randy Choate probably makes the Roster if the other LHP can go down to AAA. If not, it gets interesting as left-handed option are relatively equal. Joe Biagini has shown well. I'm positive the Jays are try to work out a trade to keep him. If they can't, he makes the Roster, he's much too good an asset to lose.

None of the decisions the Jays must make are easy. The options they have now must last seven months. They shouldn't have to make major moves at the Trade Deadlines. What they have now should last. Of course, major injuries changes everything, but it shouldn't stop the Jays from reaching the Postseason.

It was good to see Travis in a baseball uniform for the first time this spring, doing fielding drills for the first time.  I had been worried about him when Jeff Blair was muttering that he might be out for the season, or at least until August.  But today there was talk that Travis could be "back" in 4 to 6 weeks.  I suppose that means "back" on a minor-league rehab, which could take several more weeks after that.  But I'm beginning to think that he could still be an asset to the Jays this season.  Especially if we see any backsliding by Goins and/or Pillar in the hitting department.

yeah, here's some more info and video of Travis:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-travis-feels-great-taking-next-step-recovery/

great to see.

I'll be curious to see how David Adams hits in Buffalo this season.  His spring numbers have been phenomenal, with now a .400 batting average and an OPS of more than 1.070.   Of course he is mostly hitting against fringe pitchers in the second half of the games this spring.  But still, I'll be interested to see if the Jays have maybe found something here.  Every year there are unexpected discoveries in unexpected places.

An excellent outing by J.A. Happ through 5 innings today, then perhaps got a little tired in the 6th inning and gave up 2 runs.  Still an overall good performance with only 5 hits and zero walks in 6 innings.  I'm pretty optimistic about his season, though he'll never be the kind of pitcher who wows the critics with 98 mph power.

Perhaps the most significant line for Happ today:  14 ground-outs, zero fly-outs.

I agree with SKinNJ' idea on Sanchez, not much to add.

------------
Why on earth would the Blue Jays want Ichiro Suzuki over Carrera or Lake or any other in-house option?
From a talent standpoint, Ceciliani should really be the 4th OF over Carrera and Lake. Better 4th OF skill set, and if his bat is even mediocre he will have value based on his apparent defensive and base running ability. The only difference is he has options while the other two don't, but no one is going to shed a tear if the Jays lose Lake and/or Carrera. The AAA outfield should be able to survive without them (Pompey, Brown, and maybe one of them if they pass waivers) and the 4th OF figures to get a lot of AB's in the bigs so go with the best guy there. Ceciliani should make it.

My idea based on the reasoning that young hitters -- Pompey for example -- develop better given more playing time. Ceciliani is a young player so he needs playing time. By probability of events, Pillar is not hitting as well as people expect out of a leadoff hitter. Therefore, Ceciliani can split some playing time against RHP with Pillar as the latter improves. Also contributing to the choice is the fact that EE and Travis are not available. Between playing time in MLB than AAA, that in MLB is better for the Jays which aim for postseason: a hitter in hot streak in Ceciliani is helpful. Given his minor league option, he can be demoted when he cools off.

Having the aforementioned out of the way of typing, how about Lake and Carrera ? Carrera is matured enough to play in MLB: his hitting performance in Buffalo 2015 was just below to Cola and Hague. Both players eventually get chances in baseball leagues in Toronto and Japan -- the level of play of both is above Triple-A. Given the talents of Jays players, a poster previously typed that Delabar and some veterans could be replaced. Therefore, how can the Jays turn Carrera into some asset imminently useful ? An idea is to trade Carrera, Delabar and/or some players for assets -- cash included. Trading for Ichiro is just one -- does he help the Toronto team with intangibles ? For comparison, if some fans like Muni, Ichiro can help more. A veteran OF solves the brainstorming for a 4th OFer.  Lake is about as young as Ceciliani so he needs playing time too -- he shall get in Buffalo but he has no minor league option left.

I'm really curious to see how Happ does this season. The Pittsburgh performance was a direct result of an adjustment he made to his repertoire, and his ratios matched his performance post-trade (2.19 FIP, 9.81 K/9). I don't expect 3.3 WAR Happ to surface again, but maybe a better version of 'typical Happ'? I'm going to temper my expectations regardless, but he'll be someone to watch this year.

Based on the quotes from Estrada and Gibbons after his start, it wouldn't shock me if he starts the year on the DL. That would certainly make the 5th starter decision less murky. The Sanchez bandwagon is filling up as even the U.S. media is supporting him (Rosenthal, Stark, Heyman, Fangraphs, etc). Hell, I have always been skeptical of him based on his performance as a SP, but I have come around on giving him a chance as well. The thought of having another young, cheap, controllable arm in the rotation along with Stroman for the next 5+ years is very tantalizing and makes the Jays long-term rotation look way, way better. Not only that, but if he gains any semblance of control long-term, then he's a potential FIP-beater with his heavy GB rates, and with the Jays infield defense, that's only going to help him. Everything is set up nicely for him if he has in fact turned the corner. Estrada getting a couple of weeks on the DL to get his back right would at least prolong the decision a bit. Of course, once he gets back, then they'll be right back to square one.

As far as Pillar leading off, yes, it's not the ideal move to make, but Gibbons is usually pretty good at switching the lineup if something isn't working. Batting Donaldson 2nd was a great decision, and immediately putting Tulo 1st showed a great deal of smarts on Gibby's part as most managers would have put Revere there instantly. Obviously, if Tulo prefers batting 5th, then put him where he's comfortable. I don't think Pillar batting 1st will be the difference between making the playoffs and not making it, but I suspect if he has a bad first 2 weeks at the lead off spot that we'll see Gibbons make a change. He's usually pretty flexible.

The Pittsburgh performance was a direct result of facing weak teams competing for top draft picks. Even in Pittsburgh Happ did poorly against the few .500 teams he faced. I think he has a chance at winning 15 games, if they pull him early.

I don't know if a team that doesn't care much about its fans would care about the US media. If so, Shapiro needs to come back down to earth. Sprint stats are still meaningless. I wonder why NL scouts are watching Sanchez. That reminds me of the Alex Rios/Tim Lincecum trade. I hope that's not the plan to replace Bautista.

I don't know why you would put Donaldson in the lead when he just won an MVP watching the first at bat from the on deck circle. The stats are situational but we like to ignore that. To me, that's no different than putting Adam Lind in the clean up spot against a lefty because he's had a good spring. The high performers with establish track records, you just let them be.

The Pittsburgh performance was a direct result of facing weak teams competing for top draft picks. Even in Pittsburgh Happ did poorly against the few .500 teams he faced.

He had one bad start - his first start with the Pirates, against the Cubs. After that, his next worse performance was 3 runs in 5 1/3 in Colorado (with 8 Ks and 1 BB). Everything else was 2 runs or less, whether it be against teams like Cincinnati or the Cardinals, the Rockies or the Mets, Arizona or the Cubs. He wasn't merely a weak competition mirage. He just threw well. Not especially deep into ballgames, but well nonetheless, and in a pennant race.

As for the NL scouts, teams are watching other teams to see what players another team might make available on the waiver wire, etc. Even if you're at the game to look at Lake or Carrera and so on, it'd be tough not to notice the way Sanchez is throwing.

One of the facts missing from the discussion about why Floyd might get the starting nod despite Sanchez' amazing spring is the fact that Floyd's agent is Ron Shapiro. Just saying...

The 4th Outfielder will average 25-30 ABs per month. The average Minor League Outfielder will average 125-130 ABs per Month. If an injury occurs to a primary Outfielder, a Minor League Outfielder will get the Call-up to fill that position. The 4th Outfielder remains the 4th Outfielder. Therefore Darrell Ceciliani, Dalton Pompey and Domonic Brown will start in AAA. The 4th Outfielder that stays with the Jays will whomever plays CF best. The choices are Junior Lake and Ezquiel Carrera, neither with options left. Best hope for the one that doesn't make the Roster is to clear waivers and go to AAA awaiting call-up.

Sharpiro's dads represents Floyd? Thats crazy! Drama level 10 just got added here!

I think Michael Mass is Gavin Floyd's agent - Ron Shapiro was previously.

Baseball Reference has it the other way around: Shapiro now, Maas previously.

Then I read it incorrectly but Mike Wilner and others have been saying that Ron Shapiro is no longer the agent.

Baseball Reference could be wrong, of course.

Happ was held to short outings in Pittsburgh. 5.1 twice, 5.2 twice. 6 innings 5 times.
They were always in a rush to pull him out with low pitch counts: out after 56 pitches against St-Louis even though technically he only gave one run and took the loss. Out after 82, 83, 84, 87 pitches. Won 3 of those games.
By September he was on 5, or 6, days of rest.

I think he can maintain that pattern et potentially rack up the wins--if the Jays score early--but if you expect him to throw 100 pitches every 5 days, be prepared to watch him get shelled in late innings.

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=320016
As far as Pillar leading off, yes, it's not the ideal move to make, but Gibbons is usually pretty good at switching the lineup if something isn't working. Batting Donaldson 2nd was a great decision, and immediately putting Tulo 1st showed a great deal of smarts on Gibby's part as most managers would have put Revere there instantly

May I know why so ? Maybe the discussion on Gibbons' smartness in putting Tulo at lead-off has been beaten to death.

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=320020
In order of importance, several criteria can be extracted because the order does not preclude the possibility of signing or trading for an OFer outside of the organization rosters.
1) The 4th Outfielder that stays with the Jays will whomever plays CF best.
2) The 4th Outfielder remains the 4th Outfielder.
3) 4th Outfielder will average 25-30 ABs per month.
4) average Minor League Outfielder will average 125-130 ABs per Month.
5) If an injury occurs to a primary Outfielder, a Minor League Outfielder will get the Call-up to fill that position.

Several choices are also available
6) Darrell Ceciliani, Dalton Pompey and Domonic Brown will start in AAA -- diminish their chances to be called up.
7) Junior Lake and Ezquiel Carrera, neither with options left.
8) Best hope for the one that doesn't make the Roster is to clear waivers and go to AAA awaiting call-up.

Given the above,
9) Can Carrera field CF adequately? Previous posts suggest not so. Thus he is an outsider to above criteria -- a potential trade may return the Jays some imminent values.
10) According to online posts, Lake can field CF adequately and hit ok enough for himself. If he is the 4th OF, he is going to get just below 200 AB in the whole season. Is it enough for his performance development ? How well can Lake contribute to Jays' postseason chance.
11) Buffalo' outfield is not to be worried. Pompey, Brown, two of Ceciliani, Lake and Carrera, and Melky Mesa put 4 outfielders for the Bisons, not to mention former Bisons Brad Glenn is still a free agent according to a Google Search. By the way, how is Glenn doing recently ?

From a bystander identity, one learns quite a lot reading the comments.

The Pirates are a strong analystics/sabermetric organization (their GM worked under Shapiro in the 2000's). While I don't follow them closely, it's possible that their use of Happ was simply a case of taking him out before having to face a lineup a 3rd/4th time through, which statistically is the right move to make more times than not. It's not like he has a history of being a workhorse. If he gives you 5-6 strong innings, and your bullpen is strong, then why tempt fate, even if he is throwing well? With the Jays having three capable back-end relievers now, I would hope that's how Gibbons uses him as well.

With Happ, his Pittsburgh performance was directly related to adjustments in his delivery and repertoire (throwing more 4S FB's and harder stuff in general). No doubt a lot of what he did was a hot streak (he's not that good), but with a mechanical change there's always a chance for some sustainability if he can maintain those mechanics going forward. That's up to him and Pete Walker, who I hope studied as much 'Pirate Happ' as possible this winter.

Like I said, I don't have any visions of Pirate Happ being a long-term thing, but I'm curious to see if his performance is above 'normal Happ' after this stint with Searage. Some times, adjustments to delivery or pitch sequences can make a difference.

"May I know why so ? Maybe the discussion on Gibbons' smartness in putting Tulo at lead-off has been beaten to death."


Just a hunch on my part, but if every manager in baseball got Revere and Tulo at the same time, I'm willing to bet that the majority of them would have put Revere at lead-off and Tulo in a "RBI spot" immediately. Granted, Gibby ended up making that switch later on anyway, but initially doing it in the first place impressed me. I don't think many managers would have.

I could see Gibbons starting Pillar at lead-off, but then changing things up if he is off to a bad start and someone like Saunders starts off hot (for example). My point is, I think Pillar leading off is a bad idea, but I could see Gibby changing it up within a month, so it may not be that big of a deal.

Aaron Sanchez confirmed in rotation. Hutchison optioned to Buffalo.