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Having spent the day looking in vain for some wag to say "You Brexit, you bought it!" let's turn our attention to the baseball. The Jays are in Chicago this weekend, where everything happens an hour later than it should.


The White Sox came charging out of the gate this season, winning 23 of their first 33 and opening up a 6 game lead on the rest of the AL Central. Along the way, they strolled into Toronto and swept the Jays, outscoring the home side 21-6 over the three games. On the Friday night, Marcus Stroman took a 5-1 lead into the seventh inning. The Sox loaded the bases with two outs and Brett Cecil came on to allow all three runners to score while re-loading the bases; Gavin Floyd came in to give up the go-ahead two run double off the bat of Todd Frazier. Chris Sale matched up with R.A. Dickey the following afternoon, so you can probably guess how that went (10-1, if you've forgotten.) They wrapped up the sweep on Sunday with Jose Quintana and three relievers throwing a four-hit shutout. Heady times for the South-Siders.

Since then... not so much. The Sox have gone 13-27 since their high-water mark on 9 May, and that's 8-25 when Chris Sale hasn't been involved in the decision. They slipped below .500 last week, and have fallen to 6 games off the division lead.

Second-year LH Carlos Rodon gets the start tonight - he's pitched better than his 2-6 record would suggest. Rodon couldn't buy a win when the team was playing well (he started out 1-4, 4.26) - he's been pitching well lately, but his team has scored a total of 6 runs in his last three starts. Which makes it tough. He's never faced the Blue Jays.

Miguel Gonzalez made his season debut against the Jays back in April and was all set to take the L before the Toronto bullpen got him off the hook. He's started 8 games since, and all but two of them were pretty good.

Unfortunately for Toronto, Chris Sale will be pitching this weekend. The long lefty leads the major leagues in wins. Curiously, he's never struck out fewer hitters than this season - he's striking out less than a batter per inning for the first time in his career.

The White Sox play their home games in US Cellular, which is a great place to hit home runs and a tough place to score runs. Go figure. Last year's Home Run Derby champ, Todd Frazier, came over this season from Cincinnati and is having himself a US Cellular experience. He's hit 21 HRs so far, and no one in the major leagues has hit more. He's also hitting .198/.301/.456, and looks likely to strike out 150 times this season. Rob Deer, anyone? Brett Lawrie has an outside chance of striking out 200 times, and who thought that could ever happen? (He can't possibly stay healthy long enough to get that many ABs, though.) Jose Abreu is having a down year by his own standards, but he does turn 30 in six months, so maybe he's just getting older. He's still one of the team's few decent hitters, along with corner outfielders Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera. The rest of the lineup is pretty grim. They did finally notice the enormous fork sticking out of Jimmy Rollins' back and have moved on, giving the shortstop job to top prospect Tim Anderson, their first pick in 2013. Anderson didn't have much left to prove in the minors, and so far he's been a definite improvement on Rollins, low bar to clear or not.

Matchups!

Friday 8:10 PM -   Sanchez (7-1, 3.35) vs Rodon (2-6, 4.16)
Saturday 2:10 PM - Dickey (4-8, 4.08) vs Gonzalez (1-2, 4.29)
Sunday 2:10 PM - Stroman (6-3, 5.23) vs Sale (12-2, 2.85)
Is there news? A little. Toronto has flipped its fourth outfielder - Junior Lake is up, Darrell Ceciliani is down. That's all I got.
Jays at White Sox, 24-26 June | 91 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, June 24 2016 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#325244) #
Stroman against Sale looks like a mismatch unless Marcus ups his game. Two out of three wouldn't be bad though.
uglyone - Friday, June 24 2016 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#325245) #
smoak going for xrays on his knee.

saunders dh, lake rf.
uglyone - Friday, June 24 2016 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#325250) #
goins pinchhitting with the winning run and 2 outs.

ugh.
John Northey - Friday, June 24 2016 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#325251) #
OK, they deserved that loss. When you score only 2 runs and use Goins and Barney as pinch hitters you deserve to be beaten.
scottt - Friday, June 24 2016 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#325252) #
There is no reason for Goins to be on that team. They should have kept Ceciliani.
scottt - Friday, June 24 2016 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#325253) #
Nothing wrong with Barney. He had a great at bat, drew a walk and stole a hit for Donaldson.

Meanwhile Encarnation has gone ice cold. What is now, one for 13 in the last 4 games?
The way Smoak has been hitting lately, they should probably DL him. 2 for 21 in the last week.

uglyone - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#325254) #
yeah there's really no excuse for us to be carrying 4 middle infielders when we're already short, especially when the 4th one can't hit a lick.

goins should be sent down in favor of a kotchman or montero, who at least have a fighting chance to be a decent bench bat.
jerjapan - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 02:50 AM EDT (#325255) #
uhff...

kotchman and montero?

lets get pompey up as soon as possible, IMO, he is the only meaningful position player we can call up right now.

ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 05:46 AM EDT (#325256) #
Goins is one of Gibbons' guys. He will be on the team as long as Gibbons is the manager.
scottt - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#325257) #
Or another losing streak forces Gibbys's end.
uglyone - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#325258) #
the fact that gibby went with goons last year when he played well, and stuck with him to start this year as a result, doesn't mean goins is a lock imo. in fact if we were fully healthy he'd most likely be gone already.

and yeah jer, with all the injuries, guys like kotchman and montero are the best hitters in buffalo and are a better option for an emergency.
Chuck - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#325259) #
lets get pompey up as soon as possible

Don't forget that he's on the DL with a concussion. I presume step one upon his return will be to ease him back onto the Buffalo roster and gauge his progress there.

scottt - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#325260) #
I imagine they will try to hang on to Montero and not bring him up before September unless there is a major injury. Kotchman would be useful but it will be hard to go through this stretch with only 4 outfielders if Saunders need to be rested frequently.
uglyone - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#325261) #
Saunders just gets less rest with Bautista out.
Chuck - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#325263) #
the fact that gibby went with goons last year

All the recent Broad Street Bullies talk must have planted in your subconscious.

greenfrog - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#325264) #
Price's pitching line against Texas last night:

2.1 IP 12 H 6 R 6 ER 1 HR 0 BB 1 K

His average FB velocity during the game was 92.2 (compared to 94.1 career, and down from his season high of 93.3 from five starts ago).

That 7/217 contract is starting to look pretty risky for the Red Sox. Personally, I'm happy with the front office's decision to focus on the "value" arms of Happ/Estrada/Chavez on 1-3 year contracts while continuing to focus on internal development of pitching talent.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#325265) #
Dickey frequently seems to have an un-shutdown inning after the Jays score. It's almost as if it's a psychological thing.
jerjapan - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#325266) #
I still think Price will pitch well enough to opt out in three years and with results that justified the contract from the Sox POV, but the Shapiro approach has definitely played out as well as possible for us - I was definitely wrong on that issue.

Ugly, not disagreeing with you that Montero / Kotchman are the best bats available in Buffalo - just expressing my relative disdain for the position talent we have in the upper minors. 

Oddly, we seem to have a bunch of guys who could be legit utility IF options - Burns, John Berti in AA and Jason Leblejjian who only showed up on radar recently but apparently is a versatile and skilled defender at a variety of spots, with an emerging bat.  But position prospects like Lake, Cecilliani, Matt Dominguez and Dwight Smith continue to disappoint. 

I know ComebyDeanChance and others have articulated convincing arguments that Cola must've know he was cheating, but I still think the org may give him a chance at redemptiion when he comes off his suspension in a month or so.  He could help out as a bench bat down the stretch, although others have pointed out to me that he is ineligible for the playoffs.



scottt - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#325267) #
I didn't get to watch this one, but it's funny to see Dickey out after only 80 pitches and the bullpen not doing any better. Dickey is in a bad stretch in which he manages to keep the team in it even though the knuckleball isn't working well.
jerjapan - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#325268) #
The ball was really carrying today, i think this one was going to be a slugfest no matter who was pitching - maybe not 'new Sox franchise record for homers in a game', but still a slugfest.

sure was entertaining to watch though.

scottt - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#325269) #
Cola is free to play after July 23, but what shape will he be in. His OPS for the year is .225.


BlueJayWay - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#325270) #
Still laughing about Eaton's homerun. Did that land on the back of a bird and the bird flew it over the wall? How did that get out?
Mike Green - Saturday, June 25 2016 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#325272) #
Brett Cecil threw a scoreless inning for Buffalo tonight.
85bluejay - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 03:55 AM EDT (#325273) #
Looks like the Jays will rush Cecil back if Floyd hits the DL.
Chuck - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#325275) #
Does anyone know if a team has ever hit 7 homeruns in a game before and not won?
zeppelinkm - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#325276) #
Good question Chuck. According to a thread on reddit (I don't have the acumen to do the actual research myself), the Tigers hit 7 HR in a game in 1995 and 2004 and lost both. A record they may have set however, is being the first team to out-homer the other by 6 and lose. Apparently yesterday's game is the first instance of such an event since the play index began in 1913. Link for the curious https://m.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/4puhnc/white_sox_hit_seven_hr_all_solo_shots_outhomer/?utm_source=mweb_redirect&compact=true
Chuck - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#325277) #
Some homerun facts.

Don't know that I knew which team held the record for HR in a game.

John Northey - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#325278) #
My aunt was at that 10 home run game and was in the paper as her seat was above the dugout so when the last one was hit and Whitt came to the dugout the photo taken has her barely in it.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#325279) #
Stroman against Sale looks like a mismatch unless Marcus ups his game. Two out of three wouldn't be bad though.

The Blue Jays this year are not very good against left-handers generally. They're fortunate to be missing Quintana.
Cracka - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#325280) #
Haven't heard much about Bo Schultz from the Jays camp -- looks like he's been pitching well in Buffalo after a rough start -- Since May 24th: 13.2 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 12 K... and has gone 2 scoreless innings on three separate occasions during the past month.

He's on the 40-man roster, hasn't pitched since Thursday, throws hard, can go multiple innings... Seems like a better replacement for Floyd than rushing Cecil?

pubster - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#325281) #
I have this strange feeling that Stroman is going to pitch well today.

Chuck - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#325282) #
Bautista and Smoak being out lets Gibbons use the DH spot to rest his position players. People talk about using the DH spot this way, but teams rarely seem to do so except in circumstances like this. You keep expecting this to become the norm, but it just never does (and maybe for good reason -- I'm not advocating for it, just commenting).
Chuck - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#325283) #
With a week to go to the halfway point, time to check in on the Jays' overall numbers.

Offensively, they are only slightly better than league average (4.68 vs 4.50). Defensively, they are second overall (4.18 vs. 4.48).

Not sure which is the bigger surprise. The latter?

uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#325284) #
Devon Travis, Career Numbers

342pa, .327babip, 124wrc+, 2.9fwar, 3.4bwar

per 650pa: 5.5fwar, 6.5bwar, 6.0 average war
uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#325285) #
floyd's career may well be over.
Chuck - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#325286) #
With those unis, I'm expecting Carlton Fisk to walk out of the dugout.
Chuck - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#325287) #
Ventura has an argument, but he won't win.
Chuck - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#325288) #
I have this strange feeling that Stroman is going to pitch well today.

That was a strange feeling. Probably best to ignore it next time.

John Northey - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#325289) #
I swear the Jay hitters are trying to lose at this point. You are facing one of the best in the game, who seems to be on. Do you A) take pitches and try to work him a bit or B) swing at anything that comes your way? The Jays picked B clearly with just 80 pitches through 7 innings for Sale. Sigh.
scottt - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#325290) #
It doesn't help that the ump gave several calls to Sale.

At least Biagini pitched 2 good innings.
Stroman brought his ERA higher still. At what point do you switch him with Hutch?
Do you wait until Sanchez has to  move to the pen?

hypobole - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#325291) #
Jays have made 4 position player call-ups - Lake, Dominguez, Burns and Cecilliani. They were a combined 0 for 24 prior to Lake's HR today.
Hodgie - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#325292) #
I don't know John, seems to me simply taking pitches against Sale is a good strategy if one wants to be facing 0-2 counts all day long. Pick your poison I suppose.
Chuck - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#325293) #
Adding to hypobole's tale of woe...

Josh Thole has driven home one runner all year, and that was Josh Thole. He is 1-for-27 with men on base and 0-for-11 with men in scoring position.

John Northey - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#325294) #
Good point Hodgie. Still, 109 pitches faced by Jay hitters over 31 hitters = 3.5 pitches per PA, or barely more than a 3 pitch K would produce. Really annoyed me after Barney got a walk and Sale was getting up there in pitches that Travis swung at the first pitch. Ah well, crap happens they just need to pick it up and go at it tomorrow in Colorado. That should get the hitters going one hopes.
Eephus - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#325295) #
I don't know, seems to me simply taking pitches against Sale is a good strategy if one wants to be facing 0-2 counts all day long.

This is a big part of what makes the great pitchers so good: you have to swing. If you stand up there waiting only for a perfect pitch to hit, you probably watch three go by you didn't like and you're already off back to the dugout.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#325296) #
I swear the Jay hitters are trying to lose at this point. You are facing one of the best in the game, who seems to be on. Do you A) take pitches and try to work him a bit or B) swing at anything that comes your way? The Jays picked B clearly with just 80 pitches through 7 innings for Sale. Sigh.

You can't really take pitches against Sale unless you want to be down 0-2 all day. That's what makes him tough. It's like the way Halladay was - throws nothing but strikes, so you pretty much have to swing. If you can't hit the strikes then it ends up being a bunch of quick innings.
jerjapan - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#325297) #
Funny you bring up Halladay BJW, I was thinking the same thing watching Sale pitch today.  One of the best in the game right now - after that monster in LA of course. 

And welcome back to Bo Schultz, with the Bo Schultziest inning possible.  I don't remember him hitting 100 mph before though?

uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#325298) #
I actually thought stro showed some good things today. He still made a bunch of mistakes and they made him pay, but thjs time they actually looked like occasional mistakes instead of missing with every pitch. The fielding mistakes made his final line look a bit worse than he was I think.
scottt - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#325300) #
He never gets ahead in the count.
4K/4BB is not a good ratio.
7 hits, out of gas after 5 innings.
So, opposition hit .318 against him today.
Only one homerun, only 1 wild pitch. Is that encouraging?

He got one good inning out of the gate, because the top hitters will put the ball in play if you throw them strikes, but he threw a lot of balls that were not close.

scottt - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#325301) #
The final tally was 99 pitches including 67 strikes. There were a lot of foul balls and swinging strikes out of the zone and the ump gave him a huge zone to work with.

For example there was a full count stikeout were the hitter (EE?) froze on a fastball.
If that's not a fastball count, I don't know what is.

greenfrog - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#325303) #
So, the Jays are currently playing .532 ball (86-win pace). My prediction of 77-87 wins (on the high end with a healthy Travis and Pompey on the team) for the 2016 Jays might end up being a bit low, but I'm still not confident that this was much of an underestimate (assuming it ends up being an underestimate).

When healthy, the Jays are a very good team, in large part thanks to the Shapiro/LaCava/Atkins off-season and in-season moves creating a deeper and more balanced roster.

My main concerns remain (1) team health (veteran players especially) and (2) Sanchez (and to a lesser extent) Stroman running up against their innings limits, resulting in a weaker starting rotation.

The AL East is still a fairly tough division. The Jays are certainly in the mix for a playoff or WC spot - they might be the best team in the division - but they do not look like a dominant team to me. And there seems to be a possible underperformance issue that could trip the team up in a tight playoff race.
jerjapan - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#325304) #
in large part thanks to the Shapiro/LaCava/Atkins off-season and in-season moves creating a deeper and more balanced roster.

come on man, you are just picking fights with this statement.  How bout in large part due to the invaluable core of MVP, Jose, EE, Tulo, Russ, Travis, Pillar. Stro, Osuna, Saunders, Estrada and Sanchez left by AA?

Or are you going to argue that Happ, Biagini, Grilli and Storen somehow negate that?

sure, Shapiro has addressed some imbalances in the roster, and his moves have been consistently good overall.  but this remains AA's team.  
uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#325305) #
I still think they're better than that. IMO they had a bit of a playoff hangover which led to a poor april but since then they've seemed to recover, playing at around a 94 win pace over may and june with the stats to support it. That's the kind of team they are imo.

APR: 11-14 .440 (-0.08 rn/gm)
MAY: 17-12 .586 (+0.35 rn/gm)
JUN: 13-10 .565 (+1.17 rn/gm)

And it's April that seemed to have the weirder performances like martin, ee and tulo's crazy bad starts...and the may june performances don't seem to have much in the way of unsustainable team stats, and haven't come as a result of undue health or hot streaks.

I know we can't dismiss cold streaks we don't like but I'm pretty sure in the end April will still be the anomaly.



greenfrog - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#325306) #
I honestly wasn't trying to pick a fight. My point was that Shapiro & co. made a good series of moves (with limited funds) that has put the team in a position to do well this year. With the amount of money the team had to spend, it would be hard to do much better than Happ/Estrada/Chavez/Dickey/Floyd/Biagini/Grilli/Smoak/Carrera/Barney.

Yes, Storen and Dickey are looking like potentially poor moves (let's give them the full season, though). But without that slew of solid value moves, the team would be significantly worse than it is, even with Donaldson, EE, Saunders, Pillar, Travis, and the other foundational players remaining from the previous regime.
uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#325307) #
Inherited players (fwar)

Donaldson 4.1
Sanchez 2.0
Pillar 2.0
Saunders 1.8
Stroman 1.5
Osuna 1.1
Carrera 1.0
Bautista 0.9
Tulowitzki 0.7
Travis 0.6
Cecil 0.2
Burns 0.0
Tepera 0.0
Antolin -0.1
Hutchison -0.1
Loup -0.1
Girodo -0.2
Martin -0.2
Thole -0.4
Cola -0.5
Goins -0.5

14.6war ($85m, $5.8m/war)


Acquired/Signed

Estrada 1.7
Happ 1.1
Barney 0.8
Biagini 0.4
Dickey 0.3
Floyd 0.3
Smoak 0.2
Grilli 0.2
Storen 0.0
Venditte 0.0
Diamond 0.0
Lake 0.0
Paredes 0.0
Chavez 0.0
Ceciliani -0.1
Dominguez -0.2
Leon -0.2

4.5war ($60m, $13.3m/war)
uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#325308) #
actually cut the $/war figures in half as we're only halfway thru the salaries.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#325309) #
Shouldn't Carrera be in the acquired column?

Also, any such comparison is inevitably biased against the incoming front office, which was left with few prospects to trade for players like Donaldson and Tulo and which had to add veteran free agents, which are generally more expensive than young talent like Travis, Pillar, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, etc.
hypobole - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#325310) #
Of course it's biased. Did you expect anything else?
uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#325311) #
carrera was inherited.

and no, facts aren't biased.
electric carrot - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#325313) #
Facts are like a photographs -- they look real, but they're really just one frozen point of view.



hypobole - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#325314) #
Do the same exercise with bwar.
The facts aren't biased. You are though.
uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#325315) #
oh man i didn't even include EE on the inherited list. add another 1.6fwar.



and bwar won't include today's game like those fwars do, but fine.

bwar


Inherited players

Donaldson 4.0
Pillar 2.1
Saunders 2.1
Sanchez 1.9
Encarnacion 1.6
Osuna 1.0
Travis 1.0
Carrera 0.7
Tulowitzki 0.7
Bautista 0.6
Hutchison 0.1
Girodo 0.1
Burns 0.0
Tepera -0.1
Antolin -0.1
Loup -0.1
Cecil -0.2
Stroman -0.2
Martin -0.3
Cola -0.5
Goins -0.5
Thole -0.7

13.2war ($85m, $3.2m/war)


Acquired/Signed

Estrada 2.8
Happ 1.7
Barney 1.4
Biagini 0.3
Chavez 0.3
Dickey 0.3
Floyd 0.2
Grilli 0.2
Smoak 0.0
Paredes 0.0
Storen -0.2
Diamond -0.1
Lake -0.1
Ceciliani -0.1
Dominguez -0.1
Leon -0.2
Venditte -0.3

6.1war ($60m, $4.9m/war)
John Northey - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#325316) #
Well, Jays are still in 2nd wild card despite the nightmares lately. So who do they trade for? What position? We've all assumed relief help but where else are they weak? Stats are pre-today's game.

sOPS+ (split OPS+, compares OPS+ at a position to all others in the league)
CA: 67 - 85 for Martin and climbing, 12 for Thole...ugh.
1B: 88 - Encarnacion 120, Smoak 96, negatives for all others (Dominguez, Colabello, Bautista)
2B: 67 - Travis 100, Barney 85, Goins 21, Paredes 136 (1-4, BB, 2B), Martin inf (1 PA, 1 HBP)
3B: 132 - Donaldson 151, rest suck
SS: 107 - Barney 144, Goins 107 (go figure), Tulowitski 98
LF: 150 - Saunders 157, Carrera 125, Goins/Burns 1-4
CF: 86 - Pillar 86, Carrera 84 in 11 PA
RF: 113 - Carrera 123, Bautista 118, Cecillani/Goins/Lake/Padres 0-7
DH: 117 - Encarnacion 130, Donaldson 116, Bautista -10 (guess he doesn't like DHing), Saunders/Travis/Paredes/Goins/Carrera 14 PA 2 H 1 double, 1 BB 3 SO.

So the weak hitting areas are CA/1B/2B/CF at least vs the league. Martin has recovered lately after his horrid start although a good backup would be nice. 2B looks ugly until you notice it is almost all Goins fault - Travis has been league average at 2B so far so it is a safe slot. CF is Pillar's no matter what now with that insane defense he has. Funny to think that he started in LF last year while Pompey played CF. Amazing any balls dropped with those 2 out there. 1B is OK with Smoak/Encaranacion as Smoak can hit at league average at least for that position.

Looking at these stats I'd figure getting a backup CA is a high priority, and a better backup than Goins would be nice but Barney has been solid so no need. So on offense the problems have cleared up (assuming Smoak and Bautista return quickly) outside of backup catcher. Thole has actually been worse in June than overall by going 1 for 21 for a 214 OPS before today. Ugh. Maybe Goins can catch :)
uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#325317) #
Maybe I should just start calling anyone who disagrees with me BIASED.

greenfrog - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#325318) #
If EE (option picked up) is inherited, why is Dickey (option picked up) acquired?
uglyone - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#325319) #
well because one was a no brainer with no actual decision needed to be made, while the other was highly debatable requiring some thought.

scottt - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#325320) #
The inherited/acquired comparisons are useless.
Shapiro signed some free agents or players with options.
He wasn't going to trade away players who made it to the league championship.

If you wanna grade him you have to compare the guys he signed to everybody else that was available.

Two possibility for improvement is to DH Bautista when he comes back and send Stroman down.


dalimon5 - Sunday, June 26 2016 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#325321) #
If you want to judge Shapiro, rather than comparing his free agent signings why don't you look at the success of the team he did build in Cleveland?
scottt - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 03:14 AM EDT (#325322) #
Do you mean the Cleveland team that's leading its division by 5 games?
greenfrog - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 06:22 AM EDT (#325323) #
So, because Dickey (acquired by AA and controllable through 2016) was a less obvious option to pick up than EE, he wasn't "inherited," but was rather "acquired" by Shapiro? While Carrera (signed for $0.5m in the spring on 2016) was "inherited" by Shapiro?

It seems as if the definitions you're applying are somewhat malleable, depending in part on how well they serve the argument you're trying to make. And I still don't see how Shapiro stands a chance under your model, as he doesn't have the benefit of all the years of developing young, cheap players to form part of the roster core. Plus, under your comparison, Shapiro gets penalized for making prudent, short-term acquisitions, while your model ignores the high-priced, back-end years of players like Martin and Tulo.

Also, I think most GMs would have picked up Dickey's option, given his 2015 second half. 1/10 isn't really that much for an adequate (if aesthetically annoying to watch) back-end innings-eater with mid-rotation upside, especially for a team built around offense with question marks in the rotation.
jerjapan - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#325324) #
I agree that Dickey's option was a no-brainer,

but overall, I think it seems safe to say that AA built this team and Shapiro and co have done a strong job fleshing out the roster.  I was obviously a Shapiro skeptic, but I've been impressed with how well his moves have worked out thus far.  Maybe he's not Darth Vader after all ...

And that Cleveland rotation?   wow ... they are a mediocre team everywhere else, but 4 stud starters plus a resurgent Jeff Tomlin will carry you a long way ...

what was the rumour last summer linking us to Carrasco?  I recall thinking the price was too steep at the time but now? perhaps not ....
greenfrog - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#325327) #
I suspect that LaCava played an important role in helping decide which players to acquire under Shapiro.
hypobole - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#325328) #
Thanks for the bWAR numbers, uo.

And it's OK to be a little biased against Shatkins.

That was the whole purpose of the post in the first place, no?

As for "facts", I'm reminded of Beeston's famous I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss and get every national accounting firm to agree with me. quote.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#325329) #
The Shapiro inherited/acquired comparison won't work in 2016 because he intentionally kept this group together for one more run, so the core pieces were always going to be inherited. His goal was to surround the roster with enough short-term depth/pieces to take another stab at a division title. His moves for the most part have worked out, though. Certain players that were expected to be stars have so far been disappointing (Bautista, Tulo, Stroman, Martin, etc). Whether the team makes the playoffs or not will depend on those guys more than the pieces Shapiro brought in.

Also, I'm not sure how Smoak is "acquired" but Saunders is "inherited". They both had one more year of arb left, and Saunders was coming off a knee injury that caused him to miss nearly all of 2015. They were either both acquired, or both inherited. Putting them in separate columns does not make any sense. Same with the players who had team options. Dickey wasn't the no brainer that Bautista/Edwin were, but I doubt there is a single GM who would have declined the option given how he finished the season.
Mike Green - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#325330) #
Tepera up for Girodo. I guess that Gibbons wouldn't have used Girodo against Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon anyway.  He hadn't thrown in a week. 
Mike Green - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#325332) #
I had the same feeling as John Northey about Travis' last at-bat, although I wouldn't have put it quite the same way.  Normally, Travis has a very good idea what he wants to do.  I have no idea what he was trying to do with Sale on the first pitch.  If he was  looking for a pitch inside to drive, he should have laid off it.  If he was thinking that he would take Sale the other way, he put a poor swing on it. 

Poor Kevin Pillar.  He's working hard on laying off the pitch up, and does a nice job taking an unhittable pitch just up and in from Sale and gets rung up for his troubles.  Earlier he had done a nice job working Sale for 8 pitches but struck out on a foul tip.   The results may not be great, but the process was good...

eudaimon - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#325336) #
Re: the acquired / inherited I'd go one step further and say Estrada was inherited. Sure, the new guys signed him to a contract but that was pretty much a no brainer after his 2015 season. Chances are we wouldn't save signed him if he hadn't already had had success here.

That being said, the whole conversation is a bit of a pissing match at this point. I'm an AA fan, but Shapkins has made some decent pickups and seems competent enough. I'd still rather have AA but what can you do. It'll be years until we have enough data to say anything with certainty - small sample size etc.

Beyonder - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#325337) #
I don't see how you can say signing Estrada to the highest deal the market was prepared to offer was a no brainier. No other team was prepared to pay even a dollar more for his services. In fact, no free agent deal is going to be a no brainer. You will always be paying top of the market.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#325338) #
Estrada was definitely "acquired". He was a free agent. The FO had to choose whether to give him the QO, which meant $16M of the available payroll space had to be tied up to one SP. They had to believe that he would have rejected it (to get a pick) or that his 2015 was sustainable enough to take that chance (if he accepted or worked out a longer deal). Having the QO to dangle in front of him certainly helped, but that's a far different scenario than having a team option or having an arb eligible player. The Jays had to choose to bring him back and Estrada had to choose to come back. In the other scenarios, the team had complete control. In this case, the player had some control as well. Same with Barney, who was on the 2015 team to end the season but could have easily signed elsewhere.

This exercise is definitely splitting hairs, though.
pubster - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#325339) #
I think the job Shapiro did in Cleveland speaks for itself.

He did a great job over there (just look at wins and losses) and I think he'll do a great job here.
Mike Green - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#325340) #
Do most people really want to talk about this? It's an inane discussion.  Anthopoulos acquired some excellent players in his last couple of years here which led to 2015's great club; Shapiro did pretty well in the off-season, and had a pretty decent record in Cleveland given the budgets he had to work with. 

The $/WAR comparison is ridiculous because there are players who Anthopoulos drafted now in their pre-arb years (Pillar, Sanchez etc) and none of Shapiro's (naturally).
pubster - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#325341) #
By my count, Shapiro was GM (or higher) for the Indians for 15 seasons. In those 15 seasons they won 90+ games 4 times. I think that's a pretty good average especially considering the Indians don't spend much on player salaries.
pubster - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#325344) #
I totally agree Mike.

Who cares what % of the credit should go to AA and how much should go to Shapiro etc.

eudaimon - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#325345) #
Okay, maybe full inherited for Estrada is too much. How about 75% inherited 25% acquired? To me the QO / new deal thing was close to a no brainer because Shapkins are good enough to know a good deal when they see one, especially given the outrageous salaries starting pitchers are getting in recent years. As well, they only had the power, and maybe the interest (I think teams in general are more likely to have interest in a player that has had success with them, while players are also more likely to stick around with teams that they've had success with) in signing him to such a deal because he was already here. If AA hadn't of acquired him there would have been no QO option, Estrada would have had no connection / favouritism to the team (it does seem like he wanted to stay here, but if he had never been here he might not have wanted to come), and they wouldn't have personally seen him have success in the RC. Still, I suppose Shapkins deserve some credit for not bungling the transaction somehow.

I do agree that splitting hairs is a good way to describe this.

eudaimon - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#325347) #
As to who cares, I agree it doesn't matter much right now. It'll be more interesting 10-15-20 years down the line when we reevaluate this period.
uglyone - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#325348) #
"So, because Dickey (acquired by AA and controllable through 2016) was a less obvious option to pick up than EE, he wasn't "inherited," but was rather "acquired" by Shapiro? While Carrera (signed for $0.5m in the spring on 2016) was "inherited" by Shapiro?"

Carrera wasn't a free agent. He was team property. Shapiro picked up Lake, Ceciliani, etc. to take his job, but gibbons stuck with zeke.

But yeah I still think it makes perfect sense to distinguish between picking up no brainer options and more debatable ones.
uglyone - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#325350) #
"Also, I think most GMs would have picked up Dickey's option, given his 2015 second half"

iirc bbox opinion was pretty much split on bringing him back. and i think we're pretty smart.


greenfrog - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#325356) #
Early in the off-season, a lot of people seriously underestimated the current cost of free agent starting pitching. I would much rather have Dickey at 1/10 than many of the expensive multiyear contracts given out to SPs last off-season (like Kennedy, Gallardo, Kazmir, Leake - whom I think you suggested as a free agent target). You seem to think that it's a snap to find quality SPs on the cheap, but I don't think it's that easy (ask the Pirates how they feel about Nicasio... and remember when Floyd was seriously being considered as a viable SP for the Jays in 2016?).

By contrast, the Happ and Estrada deals look prescient on Shapiro's part. The front office moved aggressively to acquire the arms he wanted at fair cost (which ultimately turned out to be below-market cost).

Meanwhile, Estrada (2/26) has 1.7 WAR to Price's (7/217) 1.8, and Price's velo issues and up-and-down season are making the latter deal look pretty risky (it could still work out, especially if Price opts out, but the risk/reward ratio has gone up).
grjas - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#325358) #
"Do most people really want to talk about this? It's an inane discussion."

Thank you. I'm tired of railing on about this never ending "conversation" which sounds too much like Republican haters vs Democrat haters.

SK in NJ - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#325374) #
"Do most people really want to talk about this? It's an inane discussion."


I'm a fan of the Shapiro/Atkins regime, and my answer to your question is no. But a lot of Jays fans loved AA and dislike (as of now) the current FO, so we'll hear this stuff all season, unfortunately.
uglyone - Monday, June 27 2016 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#325379) #
It was a shapiro fan that brought up the subject, for the record.
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