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The schedule on Wednesday was a light one, Dunedin, Vancouver and Bluefield all had the day off. Given the lack of games I thought I would try a quiz as part of today's MLU. On the field New Hampshire had a nice come from behind win while the GCL Jays were totally outplayed. Buffalo and Lansing put one in the win column.


The Herd had just four hits but they made them count. Rowdy Tellez doubled, walked and had a run batted in. Teoscar Hernandez drew a walk and stole a base in his organizational debut. Roemon Fields also walked and swiped his 31st base of the year.

T.J. House got the victory by giving up just one run over six innings—scattering eight hits, striking out six and walking one. Taylor Cole struck out three of the five men he faced for 1-2/3 shutout innings. Chris Smith gave up a hit but struck out one for the save.

New Hampshire

Conner Greene had one bad inning, the fifth. Through four he had given up a couple of hits but that was it. Then the fifth started with an infield single, another single and then a three run home run. Two more hits followed but Greene left those on base. So that was five hits and three runs in one inning. Greene came back out for the sixth and allowed another ground ball single. So, five good innings and one really bad one. Overall it was a quality start, just about. He walked one and struck-out three.

New Hampshire rallied from 3-0 down with two runs in the seventh and two more in the eighth. In the seventh Lourdes Gurriel doubled in Tim Lopes, who had walked, and Max Ramirez who also had doubled. In the eighth Richard Urena singled in the tying run then Lopes doubled to drive in Urena with the go-ahead run.


The Lugnuts got seven dominant innings from Osman Gutierrez, who struck out 10 while giving up just four hits and a walk for the win. Denis Diaz completed the shutout with two more goose eggs, striking out two.

Edward Olivares had three hits, Rodrigo Orozco was aboard three times with a hit and two walks and Nash Knight had two knocks and a free pass.


The GCL Jays lost and were out hit 12-2. Felipe Castaneda was lucky to only give up one run in three innings. He allowed six hits and walked two. Gaudy Ramirez struck out five in two innings but gave up a run. The run came via a single and three wild pitches.

Dominic Abbadessa has sat out a couple of days so DJ Neal has replaced him as the hot hitter. Today Neal had one of the two hits, he is hitting .338.

Birth Date Quiz Time. It's a simple quiz, who is older among the pair of players listed?

Danny Jansen or Reece McGuire?

Anthony Alford or Rowdy Tellez?

Richard Urena or Edward Olivares?

Sean Reid-Foley or TJ Zeuch?

Conner Greene or Francisco Rios?

Angel Perdomo or Ryan Borucki?

Lourdes Gurriel or Max Pentecost?

Yorman Rodriguez or Ryan Gold?

Jon Harris or Jordan Romano?

Justin Maese or Nate Pearson?

Kevin Smith or Riley Adams?

Teoscar Hernandez or Dwight Smith Jr.?

Samad Taylor or Hagen Danner?

Logan Warmoth or Joch Palacios or Cavan Biggio?

And finally, who is the oldest of these New Hampshire, or likely New Hampshire, pitchers? Conner Greene, Sean Reid-Foley, Francisco Rios, Ryan Borucki or Thomas Pannone?

The Answers are below

Not yet.

No peeking.

The Answers

Before I get to the answers I think this quiz is interesting because age plays a big part in prospect evaluation. Playing well in a league where you are younger than your competition is a big plus while dominating when you are older means little.

McGuire is older than Jansen but only by a month. McGuire is a March 1995 baby while Jansen is April. I always thought McGuire was older but essentially they are the same age, 22.

Alford is older than Tellez. Alford took time out for football which can make him seem younger. Alford was born in July 1994, he just had his 23rd birthday. Tellez was born in March 1995, he won't turn 23 until spring training next year.

Richard Urena is older than Edward Olivares by 8 days. Urena was born Feb 26, 1996, Olivares on March 6th. Both are 21 years old.

Zeuch is older than Reid-Foley but both were born in the same month, August 1995. Zeuch was born on the 1st, SRF on the 30th. Zeuch was 22 on Tuesday. SRF not until the end of the month.

Conner Greene is a month older than Francisco Rios. They too are 1995 babies, Greene in April and Rios in May.

Borucki is older than Perdomo. Perdomo was born in May 1994, Borucki a month earlier in March. They are both 23. Borucki lost time to injury.

These are two of the older guys in the quiz, both born in 1993. Pentecost is older than Gurriel by seven months. Max was born in March 1993, he is now 24. Lourdes was born in October, he is 23 until then.

The two hot hitting Bluefield catchers are close in age but Yorman is older. Both were born in 1997, Yorman in July, he just turned 20, and Gold in October.

Two more 1993 birthdays. Romano is older than Harris. Romano was born in April 1993, he is 24, Harris in October, he is 23.

Pearson is older than Maese. Pearson went to junior college before being drafted. Pearson was born on the 25th of August 1996, he will be 21 in a few weeks. Maese is another October baby, he is still 20.

Smith and Adams were just drafted. Adams is ten days older than Smith. Adams was born in June 1996, making him 21, the same as Smith.

Both of Dwight Smith and Teoscar Hernandez were born in October 1992. Teoscar is older by 11 days. They are both 24, going on 25.

One of the new Blue Jays, Samad Taylor, was drafted last year, Hagen Danner this year. Despite that Taylor is just two months older than Danner. Taylor is another July baby, he just turned 19. Danner will be 19 in September.

All three of these players were born in 1995. Warmoth was older than most of the Jays other college draftees. Biggio was born in April 1995, Palacios in July and Warmoth in September. Biggio and Palacios are 22, Warmoth will be in a month.

You have the dates for many of these players above. Borucki was born in 94 while Rios, Greene and SRF were born in 1995. The "new guy", Thomas Pannone, was born in April 1994, he is a month younger than Borucki. So Borucki is the oldest of these and the second oldest in the NH rotation after Jon Harris.

3 Stars

3rd star: Oscar Gutierrez

2nd star: Lourdes Gurriel

1st star: Tim Lopes


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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
ayjackson - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#346462) #
I think Greene's lone walk was an IBB, if I remember the box correctly.
hypobole - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 01:37 AM EDT (#346463) #
Thanks, Gerry for the great quiz. When 2 guys were born a month apart, I was almost invariably able to choose the wrong guy.
bpoz - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#346466) #
Hopefully O Gutierrez can stay healthy for a few years, so he can develop.

With all the injuries to the Lansing rotation, many may have to repeat this league next year.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#346468) #
When 2 guys were born a month apart, I was almost invariably able to choose the wrong guy.

I had a little better luck.  I split the tough ones and got the easy ones.  I should have got Jansen older than McGuire because I knew that they had the same birth year, and I had seen that Jansen was born in April and McGuire in March roughly twenty-five times.  Alas, some details I just don't remember as well as I used to.  Aging, it's nasty (as we have found out so often this year).
Mike Green - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#346470) #
Tonight, Justin Maese gets the start for Lansing, Ryan Borucki for New Hampshire and Nick Tepesch for Buffalo. 
Marc Hulet - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#346472) #
I would imagine that the bottle neck that occurs when the short-season teams move to full-season ball (ie. Lansing) will still push most pitchers forward to Dunedin next year... there are quite a few deserving players to move to full season ball (which is a good problem to have)... Add in the fact that the move from A to A+ ball isn't that big and people like Murphy, Maese, Gutierrez, Y Diaz etc should be in Dunedin in 2018.
jerjapan - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#346475) #
Great quiz Gerry.  I had thought that I was terrible at this until I realized about halfway through that you were choosing guys who were close on purpose.  The injuries always complicate things for me ... someone like Pentacost is older for his level but given his injuries, how much can we know from his age - 24 - relative to his level - Dunedin? 

I haven't been enamored with McGuire as a prospect, but it's easy to forget just how young he is for someone who's spent a fair bit of time in AA.  Borucki is another guy who's numbers impress when you consider lost time.  23 is age appropriate for double AA, although I think it was Ugly who noted that by AA there are older org soldiers who may inflate the average age somewhat. 

Agreed with Marc that it's a good problem to have a glut of guys in need of a promotion.  We are also going to have a few hard choices around the 40 man.  one advantage of drafting college guys is that they are less likely to need protecting.  Harold Ramirez is only 22 but he's been using a spot on the 40 man all year. 

That was a monster start for Osman Guitierrez.

PeterG - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#346476) #
New post deadline farm system rankings just published On BA. Jays system now ranked as near elite, #9 overall.
hypobole - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#346478) #
Which is more important - hitters being age appropriate (or young) for a level, or pitchers? I've thought hitters, but is that true?
lexomatic - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#346480) #
Which is more important - hitters being age appropriate (or young) for a level, or pitchers? I've thought hitters, but is that true?

I seem to remember reading recently that pitching, like speed, can decline pretty much consistently - though both have hitters and pitchers can have true talent change through adding pitches, changing mechanics, etc. Technique can improve results, and hitters tend to gain power, so based on that, I'd slightly lean towards pitchers, but really, I dunno. Good question.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#346482) #
It is very hard to say, hypobole.  Historically, it was very unusual for a position player prospect to arrive in the Show at age 25 or older and be an All-Star quality player.  Wade Boggs arrived at age 24 and he was considered very old at the time.  Now, Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson have come up at age 25 and 26 respectively and dominated (although both had a few at-bats before age 25).  Historically, pitchers often arrived much later because of injuries and adjustments to role (Mariano Rivera would be one example of both factors coming into play) but with recovery times from TJ shortening, this factor may be of lessening importance.

It is a fact that talent degrades for both with age in fairly predictable and mostly similar patterns.  My guess is that age/level considerations are still more important for position players than for pitchers, but that the difference is smaller than it once was. 

bpoz - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#346486) #
I suppose we are talking about elite players. Position and Pitching. A lot of DL time definitely ages you without development. Maybe you have to count ABs and IPs. Do some extrapolating and get the health checked out. D McGowan for example and C Carpenter. Currently D Pompey.
hypobole - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#346487) #
I don't think pitching itself declines as much as velocity. But that can be made up by refining command and secondaries. If you look at the old players in the league, pitchers outnumber hitters and seem to be more successful on the whole. The one thing that I know declines at an earlier age than either pitching or hitting is defense. so leaving an Alford type in the minors till he's 25 would probably be more detrimental than a Reid-Foley type.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#346489) #
Here's an article on pitcher aging curves.
hypobole - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#346493) #
Thanks for the link, Mike. It seems pitchers that do last may be more effective than hitters when they age, but primes aren't much different.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#346497) #
Sure.  If you look at the age 40 seasons, the pitchers have it over the batters.  The great age 40 seasons for batters are by Willie Mays and a bunch of DHs (and most of the DH seasons were basically 2-3 WAR seasons).  Among the pitchers, you've got Randy Johnson and some workhorses (Pete Alexander, Cy Young, Nolan Ryan) and knuckleballers and some Tommy John types and some great relievers. 
hypobole - Thursday, August 03 2017 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#346500) #
Samad Taylor playing tonight for Bluefield.
ayjackson - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#346506) #
Francisco Rios pitched an inning out of the pen for NH last night. Him and Dawson are there now to accommodate Borucki and Panonne. I could see him moving quickly up to the big club now, if it's a semi-permanent thing.
Mike Green - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#346508) #
Borucki had his 3rd excellent start last night for the F-Cats. There are quite a few decent early contenders for a 2019 rotation spot. 

Alford was back in centerfield last night.  He went 0-3.

Maldoff - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#346510) #
Does anyone know where Travis Hosterman (last year's 11th round pick that was paid like a 3rd round pick) is this season?
PeterG - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#346511) #
Hosterman was on GCL roster but inactive , likely with injury. He was transferred to Bluefield roster this week. Maybe he is going to pitch there.
China fan - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#346514) #
"....There are quite a few decent early contenders for a 2019 rotation spot...."

Borucki is pitching like someone who will be a contender for a 2018 rotation spot.

Mike Green - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#346517) #
It could be, I guess.  Bo Bichette also might be the club's starting shortstop in May 2018.  As of now though, both seem highly improbable in light of absence of upper minors experience. 
PeterG - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#346519) #
I don't think Bo will arrive quite that quickly and I doubt he will play ss but don't ask me where.....there will be too many good infielders in a couple of years and some will have to go elsewhere starting with Donaldson, likely this coming off season. Moving Tulo before his contract is up is going to be a challenge for the FO.
bpoz - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#346520) #
At the moment the rotation spot of A Sanchez is available. Borucki is doing great, but he did get short outings earlier this season due to something. Pitch count for his arm I suppose. Rios is in the pen. Like late last year he ran out of gas.

Definitely next year both are competing for a ML role. Maybe in the pen or as early call ups, Buffalo shuttle or #6-8 SP depth.
SK in NJ - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#346521) #
When Borucki was added to the 40-man roster in the off-season, this is what Atkins said:

“It’s rare that you have a group of people absolutely pound the table for a player without one exception. It was unanimous across player development.”

While he may not have the upside of others in the system, I think Borucki might be better than people think. The Jays front office is very high on him, and now the performance (and health) is starting to show up.
hypobole - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#346522) #
Borucki is on the 40 man already, September is 4 weeks away and there are 2 open spots until Sanchez is back. Wouldn't be surprising to see Borucki given a start.
Nigel - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#346523) #
I wouldn't be so fast to write off Borucki's upside. He's different in that his swing and miss pitch is a great change rather than FB but we've had some good recent examples of pitchers with that modus operandi being highly successful.
Nigel - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#346524) #
I need to admit my biases though. Marcum and Estrada are two of my favourite all-time Jays to watch pitch.
Mike Green - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#346525) #
My point was that Borucki has had 3 double A starts in his career.  It's almost invariably a bad idea to move a pitcher up to the major league rotation with that little high minors experience.  Pannone has 14 double A starts and that too  is not enough.

Bichette was a fanciful example.  It might be that he comes up to double A at the start of next year and tears it up, after an awesome spring.  If everyone else is healthy but Tulo, the club might decide as the Marlins did with Cabrera and the Cardinals with Pujols, that he is ready.  I think that it is extremely unlikely but youneverknow. 

Spifficus - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#346526) #
I could see him getting a call-up and a start or two given his spot on the 40-man. For 2018, I'd be thinking of him as potential in-year depth along with (hopefully) SRF, Harris and Greene. That's a nice change from automatically having to go to minor league signings/vets due to a lack of other options.
Mike Green - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#346527) #
Definitely.  Personally, I see Pannone as more likely to contribute in the rotation at some point in 2018 than SRF, Greene or Harris.  The bullpen is another matter. 
92-93 - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#346528) #
The next time the Jays need a 5th starter is August 12th. TJ House and Connor Greene are currently lined up to pitch that day, and there's an open spot on the 40-man roster.
Mike Green - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#346529) #
The #5 starter is needed for both the 12th and the 17th.  Connor Greene has an ERA of 6.41 in his last 10 starts, and has walked almost as many as he has struck out so far this season.  I hope they don't give him the starts.  House would be OK, but I'd prefer if they put Biagini back in the rotation and added someone like Rowley  to the pen.  None of the options are great.
Gerry - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#346531) #
Danny Jansen to AAA.
Mike Green - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#346532) #
Raffy Lopez is apparently being added to the roster to replace Montero.
hypobole - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#346533) #
Is Raffy going to break the streak of 6 in a row?
lexomatic - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#346534) #
Jansen to aaa should free up time for McGuire too. Hopefully Jansen keeps it up and gets a legitimate shot at several years apprenticeship under Martin starting later next year.
Hodgie - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#346535) #
Sadly, I think the Bichette would provide more value to the big club right now than either of Goins or Barney.
eldarion - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#346536) #
Really happy for Jansen. He's having a really solid season and now looks likely to make his MLB debut later this season. There were always glimpses of the player he could be but he's really put everything together this season.
Glevin - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#346540) #
Really like Jansen as a high floor guy. Good defensive catcher with great plate discipline-that's a major league career right there. Jays now have Pentacost, Danner, Adams, Jansen, and Mcguire as decent or better catching prospects. You can't have too many prospects of course, but we might be getting to the point where prospect for prospect trades might make sense.
VictoryFaust - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#346541) #
How is Jansen at calling games, blocking balls and throwing out runners? If he's good at that his bat (within reason) almost doesn't matter.
Hodgie - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#346544) #
Maybe this is a case of once bitten, twice shy but at no point do I trade any catching prospects until one establishes themselves in MLB. Wasn't that long ago the team thought they were in a similar situation.
hypobole - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#346545) #
Is Pentecost a catching prospect?
85bluejay - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#346546) #
Absolutely - Arencibia,D'Arnaud,Perez,Jimenez,Nessy and yet the Jays had to go pay for Martin - If 1 of the catching prospects becomes a ML regular for the Jays, I will be thrilled.
PeterG - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#346547) #
Biagini optioned to Buffalo to start
jerjapan - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#346554) #
Absolutely - Arencibia,D'Arnaud,Perez,Jimenez,Nessy and yet the Jays had to go pay for Martin - If 1 of the catching prospects becomes a ML regular for the Jays, I will be thrilled.

I may be overly optimistic, but I like our current crop of catchers a fair bit more than these guys.  D'Arnaud would have been good without the injuries, but Perez and Nessy were always marginal guys - even Jiminez was overvalued just because our system was so weak.  Arencebia was never going to be great defensively, but he's the only 'bust' I see out of that group. 

Right now we have Jansen who looks great, Pentacost who is athletic and can hit if he can recover, and it sounds like he is, Danner was a praised draft pick, McGuire has a high floor as a D first backup, Adams, and a couple of guys who if they stick at catcher could be solid in Rodriguez and Gold. 

And I'm glad to see Raffy Lopez get the call - sometimes these org soldier catchers can make valuable backups; he's had a good year and it's not like he could be worse than Montero's been.  Frankly, the only value I saw in Montero was if he could start strongly with us (he's been good  as recently as 2015) and we could trade him.  Right now, I don't see a role for him - let him rehab his injury, sit on the bench in Sept and find a new home in the offseason. 
Kasi - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#346557) #
I don't think Pentacost is playing enough catcher right now in the minors to even be considered a viable option. I'd like to hear more about Jansen's defense, since what little I've heard has been negative. But it's been so little that I don't know what to think. Like if Jansen had Reese's defense I think all the sites would be drooling over him given his upgraded hit tool. So he must have some holes in his catching game, but I don't k ow what and would really like to learn more. Now that he is in AAA hopefully we can get more info. Jer/Marc/Gerry have you guys run into any articles or personally watched him enough to get an idea on his defense?
PeterG - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#346558) #
I'm not high on Pentecost as a catching prospect either. Add to the list of possibles Javier Hernadez, considered the best defensive catcher in the system .
hypobole - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#346560) #
I'd like to hear more about Jansen's defense, since what little I've heard has been negative.

Could you post anything negative? I could only find positive.

This is Farnsworth at Fangraphs prior to 2016."C Danny Jansen has shown decent raw power and doesn’t strike out much, but his offensive upside is still relatively limited. He has improved his catching enough to project as a potential average defender, giving him some backup upside."
hypobole - Friday, August 04 2017 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#346561) #
This is from Clutchlings, a Jays blog site so a grain of salt there, Jansen's arm was fringe-average per BA a year and a half ago, so I'm not sure how it got as strong as this story says.

"And lest you think Jansen is a bat-first player, it's his skills behind the plate that have won him accolades at every stop in his career. The 6'3"/225 Jansen presents a big target for pitchers, but he covers the lower half of the strike zone extremely well, which is important for hurlers who rely on the two-seamer that he has caught like Sean Reid-Foley, Conner Greene, and TJ Zeuch. Jansen is a superior blocker of balls in the dirt, and he has long been an excellent framer of pitches. His ability to work with pitchers and his leadership skills have also been lauded for some time now. Jansen has a strong, accurate arm - his infielders have to be on their toes when a runner attempts to steal, because Jansen's throw will arrive in a hurry and on the spot."
bpoz - Saturday, August 05 2017 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#346566) #
I too read the Clutchlings story. Jansen, Pentecost and McGuire are all eligible for this years Rule 5 draft. IMO at most 1 will be protected.
Jansen has moved up the system this year. A Sept call up is possible.
PeterG - Saturday, August 05 2017 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#346568) #
Jansen will be added to the 40.
bpoz - Saturday, August 05 2017 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#346569) #
I like PeterG's comment about the Jay's farm being ranked #9.

This is a positive factor in the other thread's discussion about the Jay's future.

The high ranking sneaked up on me. But it makes sense.

Vlad and Bo have a lot to do with the high ranking. They are hard to ignore. They had to carry a lot of weight because some of our top prospects have struggled to take the next step successfully. Greene, Urena, Tellez and a few others for example.

Jansen, Alford had to help the ranking.

I also want to mention my appreciation of Gerry's analysis on some positions in the farm. Pitching, SS and C.
jerjapan - Saturday, August 05 2017 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#346576) #
I've only read the blogger consensus on Jansen as well, although I've always had the sense his D was positively regarded.  As far as bloggers go, Jay Blue is good - he gets to a lot of minor league games and has more of the scout in him than many bloggers.  He interviewed Jansen who credits his improvement from throwing out 20% of base stealers in 2013 to 34% in 2014 to working with his manager John Schneider and Sal Butera.  He reports that he continues to improve behind the plate and that pitchers like throwing to him, with his big frame.  He's at 25% CS this year and for his career.  I've always considered a percentage in the 30s as good but I'm not sure what is considered the average number?

I see all of Pentacost, Jansen and McGuire getting added to the 40 man, but with his down season, McGuire has to be the fringiest.  Pentacost's lack of reps at catcher are concerning - 19 games so far this year.  MLB still has him ranked as our 9th best prospect - I feel the industry still holds hope for him behind the plate. 

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