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Strong night on the farm even with rain preventing our two Dunedin darlings from appearing in this MLU. Two first base prospects had strong nights, while the pitching in our lower affiliates was mighty impressive.

Buffalo Bisons

Rowdy Tellez went three-for-three, walked twice, and drove in all three of Buffalo’s runs. To pick up on the conversation in the previous thread—I think you need to protect him in the Rule 5. He’s close enough to the Majors that a team with a gap at first-base/DH takes him as a potential platoon option hoping that he catches fire in the first couple months. It’s a pretty easy risk assessment for another team. Upside—you’ve got a controllable second division left-handed slugger for years to come. Downside—your team, which is likely already a bottom-third team, struggles a little more to hit right-handed pitching. Maybe that’s a gross oversimplification, but it would seem counterintuitive for this front office to lose an asset without any substantive return. Tellez presumptively would have been traded at the deadline if the team had no ambition of protecting him, no?

Michael Saunders tallied three hits of his own, while Danny Jansen had two hits and a walk. Jansen has had a spectacular season and deserves a great deal of credit. I guess in a perfect world, Jansen gets a season behind Martin with the big club before he gets a run at the everyday job, though that’s probably a bit optimistic given the seemingly high rate of failure for catching prospects. The Bisons lost 6-3.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Richard Urena, Lourdes Gurriel, and Tim Lopes all went deep. Urena, Jonathan Davis, and Harold Ramirez had three hits. It was a successful night at the plate for the Fisher Cats. On the mound, Jon Harris turned in a solid outing. He pitched six innings of two-run baseball. The Fisher Cats won 9-6.

Dunedin Blue Jays


Lansing Lugnuts

Edward Olivares breakout year continued last night. He hit his 17th homerun as part of a two-for-four evening. The Lugnuts lost 7-1.

Vancouver Canadians

Vancouver put up ten runs in the second inning on their way to a comfortable 11-0 win. David Jacob was the standout performer—going four-for-four, homering, walking, and driving in four.

Bluefield Blue Jays

Righty Turner Larkins pitched five innings of shutout, two hit baseball. He struck out two. Lefty Jordan Barrett pitched four innings in relief, allowed an unearned run, and struck out eight. The Blue Jays won 6-1.

GCL Blue Jays

Starter Anderson Nunez pitched four innings of one run baseball. Luis De Los Santos had a hit and a stolen base, but was lifted before the game was through. The GCL squad won 5-2.

DSL Blue Jays

Starter Nathanael Cruz pitched five shutout innings, striking out eight. The DSL squad won 5-0.

Three Stars

3. Turner Larkins/Jordan Barrett

2. Rowdy Tellez

1. David Jacob

Box Scores

No Guerrero and Bichette, No Problem | 104 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
PeterG - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#346820) #
I really wanted to avoid the 40 man topic for now until after the season but this talk about Tellez sucks me back in. As I see it, in order to add Rowdy, the Jays would have to add at least 6 prospects to 40 man when norm is 2 -4. I cannot ever remember as many as 6 being added but perhaps I am wrong and that has happened. Can anyone remember it in recent history? I even wonder if one of the 5 I consider obvious, might be left off or traded and as SK mentioned a trade is a definite possibility. It's not that I think that Tellez has no value but that I think that there are more valuable players to protect and I totally disagree with the notion that anyone would select him. He simply does not profile as the kind of player normally taken in Rule 5.
jerjapan - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#346823) #
PeterG, Ive gotta ask you again, where are you getting your numbers, such as the normal number of players picked is 2-4.  Again I invite you to mention even one better prospect than Tellez exposed in the draft in the past decade. 

I listed 14 prospects Id consider protecting, but I certainly dont expect them all to be protected.  Its the Rowleys and McGuires of the world that get exposed first though. 

scottt - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#346825) #
It depends how you like to gamble. Do you prefer a small chance to lose one of your top 20 prospect or a fair chance of losing an unranked one? I'd go with the unranked one, he'll most likely be back.
Nigel - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#346829) #
One of the less understood issues with the way the Jays (and others) are using their bullpens is the impact on the 40 man rosters. The Jays have regularly run 8 man pens plus 1or 2 guys who are on the Buffalo shuttle. Add in one or two injuries at any time in that group and you can need 12 relievers or more on you 40 man roster. Usually 2-4 of those guys aren't really prospects, just cannon fodder. Think Campos or Valdez. At some point running things this way may actually force you to expose a real prospect to the Rule 5 draft.
jerjapan - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#346832) #
For sure Nigel, good point.  I dont think think the jays regularly have an 8 man pen, but they do use the buffalo shuttle.  I think guys like Chris Smith, Rowley and Mayza are both buffalo shuttle candidates and marginal prospects, and guys like Borucki, Romano or Rios who may still be starting prospects can also play that role.  Id rather have a fringe prospect in that role than Valdez. Campos may actually be a legit reliever IMO.

And there is no harm in taking a guy like Mayza or Rowley off the 40 midseason as performance warrants it.
PeterG - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#346833) #
Yes, Nigel that is exactly my point. You cannot have too many prospects on the 40 man roster who cannot contribute at the major league level. I think that is what Jerjapan is missing. Relievers and OF's like Dwight Smith who have options need to be on the 40 man roster to complete a major league season.

As for my numbers, I just go by memory and have been around long enough to remember a lot. I do not ever remember the Jays adding as many as 6 prospects to the 40 man but it may have happened sometime in the past.

I am not trying to devalue Rowdy. That is not what this is about. I just think there are others above him in the pecking order and that some here over value him as prospect and have for some time. He also plays a position that is hardly ever selected in Rule 5 .

If a team is looking for a 1b at the end of the bench for the entire season, I would be shocked if there are not better prospects than Rowdy available from other teams.

If Tellez has a strong finish, he may make his way into the conversation but as it is now, I don't see any way the FO could justify adding him. That is just my opinion.

The same goes for McGuire, Pentecost, Perdomo, Romano and likely Fields and Murphy. All are perhaps 40 man worthy in another situation, but not in the situation the Jays are in now. Despite the fact Murphy is only in Low A and probably being kept there just for this reason, he is the one I would most fear losing in Rule 5 due to his higher upside.
John Northey - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#346834) #
Any team that chooses to expose a real prospect instead of risking losing an 8th or 9th reliever is a team that will not win many games. As we've seen year in year out guys at the back end of the pen are interchangeable and can be had for ML invites in spring on a AAA contract. Just look at the current pen - outside of Osuna has any of them been a top 100 in MLB prospect or even a top 30 prospect for anyone at any time?

Current pitching staff
Amateur draft: 7 pitchers
Free agency: 10 pitchers
Purchased: 1 (Nick Tepesch) pitcher
Rule 5: 2 (Sparkman, Biagini) pitchers
Trades: 3 pitchers
Waivers: 2 pitchers
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#346835) #

still boggled at exposing a real prospsct over a fungible replacement RP.
jerjapan - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#346836) #
PeterG, I have provided specific evidence, I request that you do the same.  I will not comment further unless you respond, but I do take your lack of tangible evidence as proof of my points.
GabrielSyme - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#346839) #
Well, Sparkman is back to KC, but otherwise Northey's point is a good one.

We do have a roster crunch upcoming. 45 on the 40-man right now, with only six Free Agents presumably leaving. That only takes us down to 39.

We do have a few position players that could easily be outrighted: Maile, Coghlan, Ceciliani. That takes us to 36.

The problem with the pitchers is that there are a lot of guys on the level of wanting to keep, but not very good. The strongest candidates for removing from the 40-man are Chris Smith, Schultz, Tepesch and maybe Dermody and Beliveau.

Then you start to get to the tougher calls: Raffy Lopez, Taylor Cole, Valdez and Harold Ramirez.

Any way you slice it, it will be tight. I think it's manageable, but then again, I'm not sure I understand what the Jays like about guys like Chris Smith, Tepesch and Beliveau; it may well be that there are some guys I'd happily outright that the Jays have good reasons to keep and protect.
PeterG - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#346840) #
It is you who needs to provide tangible evidence. When have the Jays ever placed as many prospects on the 40 man as you seem to want? Just the mention of Rios who would never receive even remote consideration tells me that you do not know how to value prospects.

Some here are debating on emotion rather than common sense. Perhaps Nigel's post needs to be reread as it explained better than I did, the needs of a major league team during the course of a season.

Some here are calling for outcomes that simply do not happen and have never happened before. Maybe the Jays will go crazy and add 10 prospects thus assuring a last place finish in 2018. It is ironic that it seems the same people who blame the FO for not playing more for the present want to do just the opposite in this situation.

uglyone - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#346841) #
gabriel - imo every pitcher you named there gets exposed before rowdy without a 2nd thought. before mcguire even.

there are a million schultzes and coles around.
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#346842) #
looking at the current 40 man....guys dropped/exposed before rowdy:

PeterG - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#346843) #
Ugly, you ignore ( as u often do) the reality of the situation. There are 5 players on 60 day DL who have to be placed back on although Ceciliani will certainly be DFA.

On your list.....Goins, Maile, and the 2 Smiths will be kept on the 40 man as they will be needed in 2018 while Tellez will not.

Quite frankly, I find suggestions that Goins would not be kept on the 40 man as totally outrageous and unworthy of debate. It shows a complete lack of knowledge on how to construct a 40 man roster.

If Rowdy is added it will be at the expense of another prospect that the FO likes less than I do. Can't see it happening though without trades.

The Yankees have had to trade 6 prospects this past month because of 40 man protection problems. Maybe Jays will have to move 1 or 2 for the same reason.
jerjapan - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#346844) #
It is you who needs to provide tangible evidence

Either you dont understand what evidence is, or you are not bothering to read my posts.  I have provided lists of players, in order that I would protect, and have acknowledged, repeatedly, that many of this will not be protected as we sign FAs or acquire players via other methods.  I have made reference to years of rule v drafts, and talked at length about players drafted during the past rule v draft.  You have presented literally no specifics, other than your bold - i remember it - statement.

uglyone - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#346845) #
maybe the issue arises when you label these guys strictly as "prospects" instead of as actual usable depth at AAA that should be able to help next year:

Jansen 23
McGuire 23
Tellez 23
Borucki 24
Smith Jr 25
Hernandez 25
Greene 23
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#346846) #
"Goins, Maile, and the 2 Smiths will be kept on the 40 man"

eh. fungible replacement chaff. hundreds of guys like these available all around the league all the time.
dan gordon - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#346848) #
Count me in the camp that feels Tellez will be protected. He was one of the team's top prospects at the start of the season. He has struggled in AAA at a young age for the level, perhaps due to personal matters, but seems to be turning things around lately. I would imagine the organization still regards him as one of their better prospects, and would be very unwilling to lose him in the Rule 5. You don't build long term strength in your organization by retaining mediocre players at the expense of top prospects. This management group looks to me like it is trying to build a strong long term asset base while keeping one eye on the present. I would be astonished if they don't add Tellez to the 40 man roster.
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#346849) #
so if we're forced to build next year's 40 man out of the current org:





26.C Jansen
27.C McGuire
28.1B Tellez
29.OF Hernandez
30.OF Alford
31.IF Urena
32.IF Gurriel
33.P Borucki
34.P Greene

leaving us 6 spots for those fungible AAAA pitchers. or more if we move guys and let Jansen/Alford/Hernandez push for spots on the big club.
PeterG - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#346850) #
Ugly, your are missing the two Smiths who will be needed for depth purposes. As well Tim Mayza , Chris Rowley, Carlos Ramirez should be protected ahead of Rowdy. This narrows the space allowable for fungibles, waiver claims etc...

We can argue the merits of individual players who may or may not be added and everyone will have different opinions, all equally valid.

What I cannot accept is the fact that some just think as many prospects as we want can be added without crippling the major league roster for the 2018 season. I am more of a sustained contention guy that an immediate success one as all should know, but you still have to play a full season in 2018 without being embarrassing and it seems that some posters don't completely realize that.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#346851) #
Maile is in Toronto because Tampa had no room for him and he was hitting quite a bit more for them.
They'll probably keep 2 of Refsnyder, Barney, Goins.

I could see a trade to declutter the 1B/DH spot. Pearce is likely the man out even though, there doesn't seem to be much interest for him.

Hopefully we'll start to see some moves in September.

PeterG - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#346854) #
A nagging injury may have been the cause of Maile's hitting woes. He is an excellent defensive catcher whom the pitchers trust and I expect him to be the backup in 2018. Monetero and Lopez will be nowhere near the major leagues in 2018 although Raffy has had a fine year as a career minor leaguer.
GabrielSyme - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#346855) #
Maile has been an amazing void offensively this year. I don't think the Jays will worry too much about him getting picked up on a waiver claim.

The Jays could give Lopez a bit of a real trial over the next few weeks. If his defence is endurable and he hits even a little bit he should be ahead of Maile on the depth chart, especially with McGuire and Jansen on the way behind him.
PeterG - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#346856) #
You have to protect more than one catcher so your are not left short and don't want to have to bring up a prospect before he is ready. There is no way imo that Lopez would ever be kept ahead of Maile. Defensive ability and game calling is way more important than offense in evaluating a catcher. The catcher is far and away the most important defensive player on the field. I highly doubt, as well, that Maile would hit so poorly again. His previous years would suggest that he is probably somewhere in the .220 range with some power. That would be more than acceptable for a back up catcher who is superb defensively. He is probably better than Martin behind the plate. Maybe his detractors are simply looking at a stat line and not watching the games..
PeterG - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#346858) #
Well Lopez will get a good look now as Martin may be headed to the DL again. It is up to him to prove that he is more than a career minor leaguer which is all he has been so far. Maybe he will surprise. All the more power to him if he does. This may necessitate yet another 40 man move which goes again to the point about needing some fungibles and not an over abundance of prospects who cannot yet contribute at the major league level. I love prospects as much as anyone, but the reality is that a major league season has to be played with roster sizes at least 2 players short of what they should be.
CeeBee - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#346862) #
I agree with the roster size issue. Long overdue.
Hodgie - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#346863) #
Fun Vlad Jr fact(s) of the day: After going 2 for 3 plus a walk in today's game, Vlad Jr is now sporting a 62/51 BB/K ratio for the season. He has struck out more than once in just 7 games, and since the last said occurrence (July 26 - 3K), his BB/K ratio is 16/6, pushing his A+ line up to ~150 wRC+.

I know he wanted to make the big club as an 18-year-old, apparently he will have to be happy to debut as a 19-year-old instead.

uglyone - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#346871) #
I mean i'm not even joking....but he would be a good September callup.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#346874) #
They can just DFA Montero.
Nigel - Friday, August 11 2017 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#346877) #
As I'm in the stands watching my last Cs's game for a while, if not the season, I thought I'd pass on a few thoughts. I've made it to 9 games so far so you will know that SSS applies. The Cs's have been a fun team to watch but a disappointing team from a prospect watching perspective. By that I mean, outside of the 2017 high college picks (Warmth, Riley and Pearson) there isn't much to be interested in from a prospect perspective. That isn't to say that Pruitt, Vicuna, and Chris Hall don't have some interesting aspects to their games, but in my view, they are all longshots.

Briefly on Warmoth. He has come exactly as advertised. He shows excellent contact skills, good bat speed and a good all field hitting approach. He also has pretty good speed. For all those reasons, I think you can be optimistic that he will show well on BA and BABIP as he moves up. What is in question is how much ISO and ISP he will show. I don't have strong views on this other than to say that he's pretty tiny so the ISP will come from great mechanics. As for his defence, he has shown good hands and he's looks to be a good athlete. His range and his arm strength are legitimate questions though. If I had to guess right now, I would say he has a pretty good chance of sticking at SS but I have a really hard time seeing that he could provide defensive value at SS. Hence, his offensive development will be key. I don't say this negatively, because he was a good prospect in his time, but I think the Russ Adams comps are appropriate. I think he appears to have better hands and to be a better athlete overall than Adams. I think it will be really important to see if he can develop some ISO or ISP strengths as he move up, otherwise it is hard to see how he will add significant value to a major league line-up.

I am happy to answer any C's questions if you have them. Unfortunately, I haven't managed to see Pearson live. The Cs's, this year and last, have had an infuriating habit of not announcing their next game starter so its been hard to schedule my visits to see particular pitchers. However, the starting pitching staff, outside of Pearson, is bereft of talent so it hasn't really mattered that much.
#2JBrumfield - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 06:35 AM EDT (#346878) #
Samad Taylor went 1-for-4 in his C's debut. You can read about that and more right here. Also, reliever Bobby Eveld was sent down to the GCL and fellow righty Andrew Deramo is going to Vancouver from Lansing.
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#346879) #
The Rowdy question may be ludicrous to his fans, but not to at least one outside observer. From Milb

"Blue Jays 1B Rowdy Tellez, Triple-A Buffalo: 3-for-3, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB -- After two dreadful months, the Blue Jays' No. 13 prospect is catching fire in August. Having reached base in all five of his plate appearances Thursday, Tellez has hits in all nine of his games this month and multiple hits in five of them. He's gone 15-for-33 with three doubles, eight RBIs and four walks in those nine games. This hot run was sorely needed for the 22-year-old first baseman, who hit just .175 over 47 games in June and July and still only owns a .223/.293/.341 line over 101 games. His 73 wRC+ ranks 66th out of 68 qualified hitters in the International League. He doesn't turn 23 until next March, so he's still ahead of the age curve, making a likely repeat in 2018 not the worst thing in the world. Tellez will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December, however, and a hot finish may be necessary for him to earn a 40-man roster spot with the Jays."
Kasi - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#346880) #
I think they'll protect Tellez, but I also agree with those who doubt him. I don't think there is much room for a platoon DH at the majors who has the holes in his swing that he does. So ultimately I think he's just going to be a AAAA player.
scottt - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#346881) #
1B/DH is the best place to have a platoon while catcher and shortstop are the worst position to platoon.
Having the DH open 2 or 3 times a week is not a problem at all
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#346882) #
How many 1B/DH'es are you carrying in this scenario, scottt?
bpoz - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#346885) #
Regarding the rule 5 draft ... I am sure that 3 players are the most you can lose. Someone please confirm this.

uglyone gave a list of 6 players that are good prospects and can be in AAA opening day. 3 of the 6 prospects are already on the 40 man Borucki, Smith jr and Hernandez. Only Borucki has not played in the ML.
The other 3 are 2 catchers Janssen and McGuire. Lastly C Greene.
They are on my list to protect, but maybe not McGuire. They all need full time playing time. McGuire if unprotected would have to be backup C or 3rd ML catcher IMO. So maybe he is not selected.

Mayza, Stilson and C Ramirez are all in AAA and strictly relievers. I would be willing to gamble with all of them off the 40 man. C Ramirez and Stilson can both leave on their own as 6+ years in the minors. T Pannone is another that needs protection.

Tellez would be like McGuire, a ML backup on the 25 man roster. Will a team hide him there and justify a spot on the ML team?

Lets guess that 4-8 will be protected. An individual choice, as few or many as you choose. I will go with 6, but that may be high.

Jansen, Greene and Tellez. Half to a full minor league season and they could be ready to contribute.
If McGuire is selected, he could be returned, a trade worked out or kept all year. K Gruber was a rule 5 and a trade was worked out. My faulty memory, if true, what did we give up?

All those relievers are the best of many. Pannone and Rios are close to ML ready. As the 7th or 8th in the pen I see them as ok. Not Perdomo that is a huge jump but a great upside as a reliever. Great SP if he can command his stuff.

Perdomo & Greene as power arms in the pen could be great one day. Borucki has turned his season around. It costs nothing to shuttle him up and down. But he needs full time work as a SP, IMO.

I will complete my 6 choices later. All in AAA or AA next year and close to ready.
PeterG - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#346886) #
Yeah you can also add Pannone to the list who are probably ahead of Tellez.

Rowley - added now...the others later
Ramirez (carlos)

I think those are obvious. Mayza or Ramirez would be gobbled up quickly if exposed

Fields and Tellez are bubbles but unlikely imo

All you guys think Tellez is a slam should go back and read the outside opinion from MILB that said he would need a strong finish just to get 40 man consideration. I am not even sure Jays can protect that many. A trade or two is possible.

bpoz - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#346887) #
This FO has made amazing use of the 40 man roster, 10 & 60 day DL. Also DFAing guys like Bolsinger and Beliveau and not having lost them.

3 players not used at all, Borucki, Gurriel and H Ramirez. All prospects with varying levels of value.
PeterG - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#346888) #
Urena also on 40 and not used as well as recent addition Hernandez.
bpoz - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#346889) #
Thanks PeterG. We will know everything by late Nov and then on the day of the draft.
Very good list that you have contributed. Jansen getting full time playing in the minors next year could do up and down duty. I think we have set a Jays record this year for catchers used. 6?

I also have a number of 40 man players that I would remove and risk a waiver claim. In the off season I will give my list. The FO will reveal their list as the off season unfolds any way.

Both H Ramirez and D Pompey will have only 1 option left after this year. A lot of OFs that are prospects. All have little to no ML experience.
scottt - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#346890) #
If you have a backup catcher that can hit, like Jansen or Pentecost, it's great if you can give them extra AB at first.
Obviously, you don't play Tellez at 1B if you have Smoak and Morales. He stays at Buffalo until someone is hurt or he looks good enough to clear room for him.

Adam Lind was a first baseman that should have been platooned.
He would have probably been more healthy with the extra rest too.
Am I the only one remembering him?
2010: OPS splits 829/341. So much futility.

uglyone - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#346891) #
i don't know what more to say - but we keep seeing your so-called valuable 40 man guys like bolsinger smith etc get dfa's with nobody picking them up so i really have a hard time seeing why you think it's important to have like 10 40-man spots reserved for these types.

everyone complains about trading prospscts and now we're just gonna expose one after the first stumble of his milb career? so that we keep a deep inventory of 30+yr old AAA relievers? it's just as crazy now as when you first mentioned it.
uglyone - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#346892) #
I meen Greene is getting his teeth kicked in at AA, never mind AAA like rowdy, and yet of course we're not going to expose even him.
PeterG - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#346893) #
U simply do not understand roster construction Ugly so I don't know what else to say either.

I challenged for anyone to tell me when (if ever) the Jays have ever added 6 prospects to the 40 man in the off season, let alone 7 or 8. Simply not going to happen.
uglyone - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#346894) #
your valuation of middling 30yr old AAA relievers is funny.
PeterG - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#346895) #
The difference is Ugly that Greene would be taken as pitchers with upside are popular in Rule 5. I would be astonished if a platoon 1b would be selected and if one is, there will be candidates with far more upside available. I believe that u are arguing out of emotion because u like Rowdy but are not applying logic to the situation.
prospect - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#346896) #
Im with uglyone on this one. I dont understand your fascination about keeping these journeymen relievers PeterG. If you want up and down relievers, then just replace the old guys with the young guys like Ramirez, Rowley, Mayza etc. Those guys are major league ready as well and will likely contribute next year. Those journeymen relievers are always available in the waiver wire.
CeeBee - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#346897) #
Well said, prospect.
PeterG - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#346903) #
But it is not reality. Tell me when the Jays have ever protected so many prospects on the 40 man. You can't.

How many of you went back and read the MILB article? Seems that the more objective commentary agrees with me.
uglyone - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#346914) #
define "prospect".
scottt - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#346916) #
Maybe they never had that many worth protecting.

You seem to have some historical data in front of you.
Who's the highest ranked prospect that the Jays have failed to protect out of AAA?

85bluejay - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#346918) #
All of this Rowdy Tellez and the 40 man roster discussion reminds me of the brouhaha that ensued in 2010 when the immortal Brad Emaus was left off the 40 man roster - Tellez is interesting, he's young & in the high minors which are pluses but his lack of a defensive position and his current season seeming to bear out the scouting criticism of him are minuses - probably depends on which other roster contenders are traded - in the end, I think the FO will protect him, though I would not because of his defensive liability - even if he gets drafted, I expect him to be returned. Of course, all this could have been avoided if the FO that taken my advice to sell high on Tellez last winter.
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#346920) #
Noticed the $1.5 million bonus baby Juan Meza pitched today in the GCL. His 3rd year there and still underwhelming. Actually that whole July 2nd 2014 signing period was a bit of a dud. Best of the BA top 10 was the Padres Espinoza and he hasn't pitched this year and just had TJ surgery.

Yankees apparently spent $17 million in 2014, also costing themselves 2 penalty seasons, and not one of those prospects has cracked their Top 30. In fact one of their highest priced signings has been suspended by the team since late June.

PeterG - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#346923) #
I think the Jays more recent international signings have been a lot better. There are many such kids playing well in short season ball.
jerjapan - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#346925) #
Thanks again for the live Cs feedback Nigel. 

Bpoz, I mostly agree with your thoughts on the 40 man although I do think the org is high on Mayza, hes got the big arm and was being talked up last spring.  Hes been better in AAA than AA, but there is something to be said about peaking at the right time.  I do worry about all the walks though. 

How many of you went back and read the MILB article? Seems that the more objective commentary agrees with me.

Ah yes, the ever convincing nameless source.  I read the article PeterG, although since you didnt post it, I will continue to point out that you have produced no evidence whatsoever - no names, no counter examples, no articles, nothing but opinion.  But since you cant be bothered to research your ideas, now you are challenging others to do so.   You obviously know the 40 man and the minors - take the time to back up your ideas with evidence man! 

But to the article.  Written by the immortal Sam Dykstra, with a mighty 2050 twitter followers.  Obviously, MLB is not the best source for baseball info, and that these low profile content generators are often poorly-paid or interns.  Dykstra might be a bright, insightful guy, but at this point, I view his opinion as equally weighty to many of the insightful posters in this very thread. 

That said, if I have somehow entirely missed the boat on this and Rowdy isnt protected, Ill happily acknowledge that I was wrong.
scottt - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#346926) #
Brad Emaus was traded for Chris Malone who has never made it  past AA.

Smoak was also in AAA at 22 and hit .245 with an OPS of .720 in a hitter's league (PCL).
Way too early to be concerned about Tellez.

hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2017 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#346928) #
jerjapan, Peter G didn't post it because I had posted the writeup in full along with the link earlier in the thread.

There is no need for Trumpish denigration of other viewpoints. I took your advice and looked up past Rule 5 drafts and I believe only 2 picks - Choi and Parmalee were 1B types over the past 9-10 years. Combine that with the lack of interest in one dimensional sluggers, other than by the Jays, and it becomes a legitimate question.

On a brighter note, here's an excellent video of Bo's home run today, with slo-mo of him generating power with his leg kick.

bpoz - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#346929) #
I get emotional about a favorite prospect. C Greene is my prospect. We know his stuff. Plus FB and a starter so he has a few other pitches. He has a chance to be a ML starter or fall back as a great reliever. In shorter stints his FB may even be harder.

Regarding PeterG's challenge, I don't really know how to do the research on how many prospects we protected in the past. I feel less than 6. How many this year will be answered in late Nov.

Last year 3. Borucki, Alford and Urena. Only Alford has great tools. So that is 1 plus. The other plus is his good 2015 season. Repeated 2016 and had injuries and a bad year. Then got protected.

Borucki had 1 healthy season. 2016 in Lansing and was good. Impressive enough to get protected. I really like him but does he have a high ceiling, based on results to the end of 2016? Scouts and other development people may know.

Urena had 2 very good seasons 2015 and 16 and has V good defensive value. IMO a good choice to protect.

So only A Perdomo was exposed from my list of good prospects. He always pitched quite well. 2016 was his first in full season ball. He had a good 2016 in Lansing.

In the above I am just trying to figure out how the FO may have been thinking in Nov 2016.

IMO none of the above were ready to contribute in 2017 to anyone. So a 25 man roster spot sacrificed for the future.

This year there are a few AA and AAA players, mainly pitchers, that could be playable on a team's 25 man roster.

As of tonight, I like Rowley's 40 man audition the best of anyone else's audition.

jerjapan - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 03:10 AM EDT (#346932) #
Hypobole, I know you posted it, that was my point.  I'd invite you to reread the thread - I'm pushing my point strongly precisely because of previous 'Trumpish denigration'.  Take a look at some of the comments: "some here are debating on emotion rather than common sense", "you ignore ( as u often do) the reality of the situation", "I find suggestions that Goins would not be kept on the 40 man as totally outrageous and unworthy of debate. It shows a complete lack of knowledge on how to construct a 40 man roster."  I'm not trying to suggest that these comments are outrageous or anything - but all of these are more inflammatory than anything I said until perhaps my previous post, and if comments like this are part of the discourse, I will reply in kind.  Frankly, I enjoy strong debate and have no problem with the poster I'm describing.   But why call me out and not the above poster? 

I don't think your link is any stronger evidence than your opinion (as I expressed above, I mean this as a compliment to you and other Bauxites, not as a diss).  the author is, as far as I can tell, an anonymous writer with 2000 twitter followers (davidi, wilner types have close to 100K I believe, for a point of reference).  Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he's reading the Box now and then. 

I appreciate your comments, and I'm glad you looked up the past drafts.  It's true most picks aren't 1B types (although I think you missed Mark Canha) - but I don't believe the number taken is strong evidence in itself - how many were exposed?  What level of the minors were they in?  What calibre of prospect were they? 

Ultimately, I think teams are changing their philosophy in how they draft players - the rawer, younger guy who is the better prospect is now picked over the older guy who might help the team as a lesser prospect.  But it's the prospect part of that equation that is significant- Rowdy is a much better prospect than a bunch of AA relievers or a speedy utility IF, even if he may be less likely than some to impact the team in 2018.  He would be a draft and stash - his role on his club in 2018 would be immaterial.  (Just an opinion, I haven't researched the ages of recent picks vs. the past.)

Choi was never the prospect Rowdy was, yet his power was still intriguing enough.  Canha too.   Not sure who Parmalee is? 

Here's another question - would you trade Rowdy straight up for a Tim Mayza / Chris Rowley type?  As great of a story as Rowley is, I wouldn't. 

That was an impressive HR, and it is cool to see the slow-mo. 

#2JBrumfield - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 05:36 AM EDT (#346933) #
Here's a rundown of Saturday's game in Vancouver, a 4-2 win over Salem-Keizer.
bpoz - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#346938) #
Lets look at this discussion about protecting prospects from the rule 5 draft by dates.

Late Nov is the "deadline" for adding prospects for rule 5 protection. Then submit your list to MLB head office. The last 2 years the Jays submitted a 39 player list at this deadline.

I will now give examples of Sept call ups or close to it. The year does not matter, just month and day.

K Graveman Aug 31 both up and down, then Sept 2.
D Norris:- Aug 31 up & down, up Sept 2.
K Drabek:- Sept 15
So the above are Sept call ups.

Below are not Sept call ups but late season. I wish I had put the year as well. Boyd and Alvarez were called up in poor seasons. Different reasons for the call up as well. Boyd emergency arm needed. Sanchez and Alvarez past the ML test and were up to stay.

M Boyd:- June 27
A Sanchez:- July 22
H Alvarez:- Aug 9

I only used pitchers. No hitters in my examples.

None of the above qualify for that Nov deadline.

Different strategies for call up auditions/uses in a poor or good season. We have had both since 2010.

My interpretation of Perer's statement is that the additions are for the Nov deadline.

I am changing my personal concept. I am expanding my concept to include the Sept and Aug call ups.
Sanchez in July was to close in place of a struggling C Janssen.
Rowley to replace the traded Liriano, injured (wink) C Valdez and stretching Biagini.

I hope this helped other Bauxites. I was quite lost in this discussion and finally figured it out for myself. In all sincerity I contributed long posts based on not fully understanding.

85bluejay - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#346939) #
In 110 innings this year before the trade, Thomas Pannone allowed 5HR & 28W - in 10 innings in NH, Pannone has allowed 5HR & 5W - ouch! Teoscar Hernandez has also gotten off to a brutal start, maybe jeopardizing an expected Sept. call-up.

While I applaud the FO for using the ability to take on money to acquire assets - so far H.Ramirez, McGuire, Hernandez (SSS) & Pannone (SSS) have gone backwards, Samad is far away - I'm envious of the Yankees success in this regard.
92-93 - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#346940) #
It would be cool if the FO would take on money to acquire wins when the team is 3.5 back of a playoff spot and has glaring holes at SS/2B and SP.
85bluejay - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#346941) #
Carlos Ramirez with another impressive outing - he may come up before Sept. & good to see him doing multiple innings.
And the newest conversion project, 22 y.o Emerson Jimenez, now with 5 innings, 3H 9K/0BB - this conversion thing is really taking off - the Rockies may regret not trying the conversion with him. I have to start paying attention to guys with strong arms & struggling with the mendoza line. Good on the Jays development department.
uglyone - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#346942) #
brandon phillips could be a nice add.
Kasi - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#346943) #
Can we please stop the calling out posters by name or making it personal? It feels like we just had this discussion a couple weeks ago. Now obviously people disagree and state that and that's fine, this is a message board, but there is too much attacks on people's character going on here.

As for Tellez yeah I'd rather have a guy at AAA who has a good chance of being a strong MLB reliever than him. It's not that he's been struggling, but how he has been. The comparisons to Lind are offbase because Lind never had the holes in his swing that Tellez has. Tellez both has platoon splits and has huge holes in his profile. Power hitters just don't hit that many balls to the opposite field. That he is doing that shows some major concerns over his bat speed and his ability to catch up to MLB fastballs. You can't cheat mlb pitchers by starting early like you can AAA pitchers. Add in his total lack of a defensive position and it leads to doubts he can ever meaningfully contribute at the MLB level.

But sure continue to dream, I do understand the appeal of hope. It has been a weird year for Jays prospects, the younger guys are doing so well but nearly all our advanced prospects this year have taken a step back. I still have hope with Alford, Jansen and Urena, but I feel Greene/Reid-Foley and Harris are all looking like relievers or number five starters and Tellez a AAAA player. At least Borucki has continued to excel.
uglyone - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#346945) #
who are these bucketloads of guys "with a good chance of being strong mlb relievers" that we need to reserve all these 40 man spots for again?
uglyone - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#346954) #
olivares promoted.

a good performance at this level and he looks like a legit prospect to me.
aarne13 - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#346967) #
Conner Green 4IP 12 Hits 10ER 5BB/5K Oy vey.
uglyone - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#346968) #
I think it's time to put him in the bullpen. This is 2yrs now of non-prospect worthy starting.
PeterG - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#346969) #
I guess the message will now be loud and clear that he needs to make some changes and that a high 90's FB is not enough. SRF had a poor outing last night. Must be something in the water there this weekend.

Good thing that Rowley has blossomed and Borucki looking good so there is no need to rely on these strugglers. Far too soon to write them off though their stock has clearly declined.
scottt - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#346972) #
Yeah, I think you bring Greene up and put him in the pen, give him a taste before Buffalo.
If Sanchez goes to the pen, there's going to be lots of arms there...

Nigel - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#346973) #
A friend of mine is at the C's game today. He texted to say the lowest gun reading for Person's FB that he saw was 95. What is so amazing about that is that the radar gun used for the stadium readings is not hot. This gibes with his prior outing where the radio broadcast said that his lowest FB reading in his two inning stint was 96 and he hit 101 twice.
ramone - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#346974) #
Listening to the D Jays, Bichette ran through the bag at first and went down, was removed from the game with help off the field. Broadcast thinks it was his ankle and described him being in what looked like a fair amount of pain.
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#346975) #
OK, jerjapan, I re-read it and I did misinterpret in part, though I can't fathom what difference it makes who posted the article.

Agree there are some remarks made that seem rather outlandish, although the emotion over common sense does apply to both sides. We're fans, not scouts, and we have attachments to certain players that do cloud judgement.

The trade is a good question. The way I see it, Rowley/ Mayza type will probably give some value, but almost assuredly never give a lot of value. Rowdy may possibly give a lot of value, but probably no value. And with 12-13 roster spots for pitchers and only 2 for a 1B only, it's easier for a pitcher to actually provide that value.
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#346976) #
No way I would bring Greene up, scottt.
PeterG - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#346977) #
If u have to get injured, doing so near the end of the season is the best case scenario.

Regarding Pearson, I hear he has a great change up as well. Wants to work on another pitch. He could come quickly as a reliever but it's worth waiting an extra year to have a quality starter. Even starting, he could be 2 years away and will probably surpass many on the depth chart by next spring. Wonder if he might get a few innings at Lansing in the next 2 weeks?
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#346978) #
Nice outing for 18 yr old Maximo Castillo in Bluefield. He's been hittable this year, but has a 3.40 ERA in 42 IP with a terrific 46/7 K/BB ratio.
uglyone - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#346981) #
yeah i like castillo.
SK in NJ - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#346982) #
"It would be cool if the FO would take on money to acquire wins when the team is 3.5 back of a playoff spot and has glaring holes at SS/2B and SP."

Agreed. Not even for the WC race (which is a huge long shot), but just to put a competent team on the field for the final month and a half. Watching AAAA scrubs get annihilated every 4th and 5th day is neither entertaining or giving the team a chance to win. Just find some overpaid innings eaters that passed through waivers and replace the Tepesch's of the world on the roster. In hindsight, they should have looked at adding someone like Eduardo Nunez and Jeremy Hellickson (for example), maybe for prospects on the 40-man roster bubble for next season (Harold Ramirez types), while also selling Liriano and Smith for the prospects they got back. Would have been the best of both world's. Too late now as the damage is already done, but maybe they can still add some pieces that would at least make the team palatable to watch when Stroman, Estrada, and Happ aren't starting.
PeterG - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#346986) #
Regarding Castillo, I just happened to have a free hour one evening a week ago and put on the Bluefield broadcast as it seemed the most interesting organizational game at the time. It so happened that the announcer was talking about Castillo. He said that Jays player development guys were asking the manager about his players prior to the trade deadline as some rival scouts were following Bluefield. The manager told the Jays brass that the one player to refrain from dealing under any circumstances was Castillo as he was a sure fire major leaguer with high upside.
bpoz - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#346987) #
Thanks Peter. I really appreciate the digging that Bauxites do.
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#346988) #
Yeah, thanks Peter.
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#346989) #
SK, I'm sorry, you weren't entertained by Rowley's debut yesterday. I do agree with Tepesch. Watching a guy who's pitched poorly for multiple organizations pitch poorly for the Jays is not entertaining whatsoever.

However the examples you gave involved trades that were nothing like your suggestion of salary dumps for bubble guys.
uglyone - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#346990) #
still don't quite understand how Pearson fell all the way to us. 100mph with command. good feel for the changeup. and 2 breakers with potential. and only 20. that is so much more to work with than most of the guys taken ahead of him.

scouts must really really not like junior college guys.
PeterG - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#346992) #
I agree Ugly. I think we got lucky on this one. Of course, what we don't know is whether there may have been any pre draft agreement and Pearson was sounding negative to other teams or maybe he just liked what the Jays presented as Bichette did last year. Bo apparently told 4 other teams drafting ahead of TO that he wouldn't sign but agreed to the Jays on their second call when they upped the offer by 200k.Said he wouldn't have done it for anyone else. I heard this in his own words as others probably have. It was in an interview with Jesse Goldberg-Strassler that aired on the Around the Nest podcast about a month back.
85bluejay - Sunday, August 13 2017 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#346994) #
Yep, Pearson looks like a good pick, though it's still early - I think he may have fallen because of the reported inconsistency of his secondary pitches and the fact that he had a screw inserted into his elbow in HS, leading to questions about his durability.
uglyone - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#346996) #
yeah i guess the injury thing is a factor.

but how many pitchers have consistent secondary stuff on draft day?
ramone - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#347002) #
Fangraphs updated AL East top 10 prospect rankings:

PeterG - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#347004) #
Another International prospect they really like at Bluefied is 18 year old OF McGregory Contreras. He went straight to the Appy league from the DSL and struggled on the Interstate the first few weeks and has gradually worked himself up to the .285 range. He is graded as better than average defensively, playing all 3 OF positions.
Glevin - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#347005) #
Interesting. Fangraphs seems to really like close to majors (That is higher likelihood of providing some value over lower possibility of providing lots of value). For me, there is a clear top 3, a clear #4 (Warmoth) and then about ten guys who are very close.
85bluejay - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#347006) #
What surprises me and is probably a cautionary note - despite his fine season, not much love for Danny Jansen on the various updated prospect list especially when you consider what a premium defensive position he plays and he has made it up to AAA.
Mike Green - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#347007) #
Pearson's secondary offerings were not universally seen as consistent (to say the least) by scouts prior to the draft.  He has also lost weight, which is probably a good thing.  A 6'6' 245 lb guy who throws 100 to spots and has consistent secondary stuff, and turns 21 next week?  If all of that is true, he's a great prospect.  His numbers so far don't suggest that this is wrong.  Personally though, I'll wait for more outings to see how things go.

Dunedin has a good shot at the playoffs.  I wonder if they'll give Warmoth a shot there given Bichette's injury.

85bluejay - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#347008) #
Teams may also have been thinking of Tyler Kolek, the big (6'5",260lbs) triple digit throwing prospect drafted #2 overall in 2014 who has been a bust so far.
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#347013) #
I also was very surprised Jansen wasn't even mentioned. I asked a while back if someone had found any negatives that are keeping him from being ranked higher. but I don't remember any response.
GabrielSyme - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#347015) #
I was impressed by a stat ugly pointed out a week or so ago - that Jansen has had the lowest swinging strike rate in both A+ and AA this year. If he has an elite skill like that, I find it hard not to think he'll have a successful career.
uglyone - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#347024) #
Mike i doubt that Pearson's secondary offerings are consistent even now, but even on draft day there was enough there to show promise, which is pretty typical of most 1st rounders.

As for that fangraphs list i'd probably be a bit more aggressive moving guys up and down given how extreme the performances have been this year. I think Eric is being a little conservative in factoring in this year's performance - i.e. that list could easily have been a preseason list.

For me the top 10 would look more like this:

bpoz - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#347027) #
I like your list ugly, since I agree with it so much. He is just 22. I expect him to be a Sept call up. Currently ranked in the mid to high teens. If he works out you would be the first/only one to put him in the top 10.
jerjapan - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#347041) #
I like your list more than Fangraphs as  well Ugly.  Surprised they have Hernandez 4th - I think that speaks to Glevin's point about proximity to the majors. 

Both Contreras and Castillo are Venezualan ... someone mentioned that we were scouting Venezuala heavily a few weeks ago, if true, this approach seems to be a good one. 

Mike Green - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#347046) #
Urena would be higher than Warmoth on my list.  Urena was great in high A at age 20 and has been mediocre at double A at age 21.  Warmoth is 6 months older than Urena and is in short season A ball, and doesn't really have a college record to suggest that he's ready to master double A pitching either. 

uglyone - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#347048) #
yeah I might have warmoth a little high come to tbink of it. that's me deferring to his draft status for now, with the added boost that he's at least dominating right out of the gate, even if it's too low a level for his age.
China fan - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#347054) #
Good list, ugly, but Gurriel has got to be a few places higher.
uglyone - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#347057) #
i mean i hope so but so far he hasn't shown anything at all.
bpoz - Monday, August 14 2017 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#347064) #
I was talking about Jansen.
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