Don't have a good feeling about this series.

As long as the Jays are hitting, they can win.

ballsy call by gibby to keep tepera in there, and maybe thanks to the pep talk, tepera pays him back for it.

nice.

Still think it's best to match Tepera against the heart of the lineup and let Clippard attack the bottom.

I had zero confidence in Loup to close this.
Tepera's problem was just stress, nerve, excitement, etc...
Gaviglio is just going out there with a smile and having fun throwing strikes, while the relievers have heavy weights on their shoulders.

The key offense play in the game was Hernandez hustling down on a grounder to 3rd and being safe on a bad throw. The play was later changed to a hit. I sorta like it. Give the hitters more motivations to hustle to first.

Urshela is not very good. Not a defensive shortstop and not an offensive player at any position.

Kevin Gausman in Baltimore is also wearing a 32 patch to honor Halladay.
They're from the same state.

"Troy Tulowitzki has been cleared to run on the ground per #BlueJays. Gibbons says Tulo's "probably a ways away still," but progressing"

Russel Martin STARTS at shortstop today.

And it actually makes plenty of sense.

Tough matchup for the Jays today. Nola (who I was hoping would fall to the Jays (#9 pick) in the 2014 draft -- he was selected #7 overall that year) is an excellent pitcher.

Russel Martin STARTS at shortstop today.

At this point of madness, I almost wonder if the Blue Jays should take a look at Hanley Ramirez.... as a shortstop. Sure, the dude hasn't played there since 2014 and that was also visibly several gained pounds ago. It's just that, aren't we kind of at this point now anyway? At least Hanley should give you more with the bat than Gio Urshela.

(I am in no way rationally advocating for this, I just think it would be fascinating and perhaps hilarious)

We did draft Nola in 2011.

Martin was an infielder who was drafted with the purpose of converting him to catcher.
I don't know if Urshela is a better shortstop than Martin. At least Martin can still take a walk.

I find it  more interesting to note that Solarte had 2 hits yesterday, so Travis sits a second game in a row.
It's really hard to get him to play more unless you pluck Solarte at shortstop which is hard with the ground ball pitchers.

I think Martin's only real issue out there will be range - I think his glove and arm will work fine.

eephus - Martin has actually looked good at 3b and 2b recently....Hanley is awful even at 1b/of.

t

The Jays also drafted Bryant, but there was little chance of either player signing. I liked the aggressive strategy of Anthopoulos in going hard after those elite-talent, hard-to-sign players, though.

agreed greenfrog - those longshot, late-round HSers sometimes pan out.  I'll take 5 unsigned draft picks from the back half of the draft for every Chavez Young you score in the 39th round. 

Martin has actually looked good at 3b and 2b recently....Hanley is awful even at 1b/of.

Hanley's short stint as the Red Sox LF was genuinely Colabello bad. He'd make Steve Pearce look like Josh Reddick.

I think Russ will probably be fine. The only thing I'd worry about is just a lack of experience playing major league shortstop, which would really be Hanley's only significant advantage defensively. Again, the absurdity of having your 35 year old catcher start at short is strange, scary and somehow delightful.

yep. it's too fun to get angry about. i'm legit excited to see it.

While the creativity is novel, the likes of Urshela, Martin, and Solarte playing out of position does leave me somewhat incredulous when the “Guerrero’s defence needs work” argument is trotted out as reason for his contuned residency in New Hampshire.

Always try. You can get lucky. Pillar low round pick. Graveman high round pick both cheap.
C Young not cheap. Romano cheap.

Team TRADE-ALL-IMPENDING-FA


CF Pillar 29
RF Grichuk 26
LF Hernandez 25
3B Guerrero 19
SS Tulowitzki 33
2B Travis 27
1B Smoak 31
DH Jansen 23
C Martin 35

UT Solarte 31 - Tellez 23 --- Biggio 23
OF Pompey 25 -- Smith 25 ---- Alford 23
IF Diaz 28 ---- Urena 22 ---- Gurriel 24
C Maile 27 ---- Jansen 23 --- McGuire 23



Stroman 27
Sanchez 25
Garcia 31
Borucki 24
R-Foley 22
Dillon 24

Osuna 23
Tepera 30
Oh 37
Loup 31
Barnes 27
Biagini 28
Gaviglio 28
Mayza 27
Dillon 24

Lou Gehrig never actually took the field as a shortstop. He was listed in the starting lineup at ss for a game in Detroit. He led off the game with a single and was immediately replaced by a pinch-runner. It was just to keep his consecutive games streak going.

while everyone is excited about Nola, Garcia may be on track for the better outing.

with our bullpen woes, I really don't like pulling Garcia in a tie game there.

Granderson ought not to be playing centerfield; he's struggling at the plate and I think that he is just tired.  The club did have an option to keep Pompey instead of Smith (or a reliever) and give Pillar a day off that way. 

I really don't like pulling Garcia in a tie game there.

I was fine with that. He hadn't pitched in 11 days, he hadn't pitched into the eighth inning in about a year, and the game was taking a long time what with the delays.

But Biagini? Who's been unrelentingly bad for the last year or so?

Vlad Jr. is 1/1 with a run scored so far and is now hitting .436. It’s a good thing we have a surplus of offense on the major-league club and don’t need any more good bats in the lineup.

Hoping Happ follows up Garcia's strong outing with one of his own.

I'm a huge J.A.Happ fan and will hopefully continue to be until July 31st.

Very nice list Mike Green. 2020 !!!

Any lefty relievers you like? Mayza, Pannone Perdomo.

Why did you list Pearson? I do like that you did. Due to missed playing time he would have to accomplish a lot by Opening day 2020 or sometime in 2020.

Pearson is my greatest hope for a stud SP due to his stuff and hard work. If he had stayed healthy this year I had hoped we would be reading many great reviews about him.

He could skip AAA. As posted many prospects do.

Mike, the alliteralist.

There is a strong probability we are not in contention at the deadline and Happ would look great in pinstripes. He's a great fit for Yankee Stadium and would project now as their #2 starter behind Severino. The Yankees have a pretty good prospect pool to deal from and a real need to pass the Red Sox and avoid the WC.

Don't know what the Solarte market would be, but I'd definitely look to sell high on him at age 31. Pillar also if the price is right. Will we need/want them in 2020?

We also have relievers to deal, hopefully 1 or 2 could get a Joe Smith type return (multiple pieces).

I think 2020 makes sense as a target year for a resurgent Jays team (I recently compiled a similar list highlighting the strength and depth of our positional player prospects).

I do think the future pitching staff remains an area of concern. Sanchez no longer looks like an emergent ace, Stroman’s shoulder issues and poor performance this year are troubling, Pearson just fractured his pitching arm and will have lost most of 2018 to injury, and there are questions surrounding the other starting pitchers mentioned; none looks like a front-end starter at this point, and the usual caveats about pitcher attrition apply to the proffered depth chart

The Cubs built a championship-calibre team with a core of young positional talent. The Jays may be able to follow a similar path, but this may require ponying up for a Lester-calibre pitcher, or unearthing a couple of underrated gems from outside the organization like Happ or Estrada v.2015 (attempting the latter approach seems more likely).

I still would like to see the front office make an exception to its extreme value approach to team-building when it comes to Guerrero Jr. I think they need to find a way to keep him in Toronto long term. He’s a special case that requires a different and more creative and proactive approach.

Building towards 2020 will be easier if the team decides to sell this July (likely) and also this coming winter + next trade deadline. They need as much talent as possible to fit a similar timeline. Anyone who doesn't fit the timeline should be moved at the right time (Solarte, Pillar, Sanchez, Osuna, possibly Stroman, etc). Maybe they can work out a long-term deal with Stroman (if his arm is OK/performance is good) and that's fine, but they need to start maximizing the value of any vet assets they have over the next year and a half.

I think expecting them to contend in 2020 might be optimistic, but I could definitely see that being the year we look back on as the beginning of the journey if the FO plays it right. This FO clearly wants to build a team internally so having a bunch of young upside players coming up around the same time will be critical. In previous years the Jays would have a great player develop but not have enough around them to take advantage of it (Delgado, Halladay). That can't happen with Vlad. They need to get as much out of his six plus years as possible (hopefully it ends up being way more than six).

so now the grand plan is to contend in...2025? 10yrs for Shapiro to build a contender?

I sure hope it works. would suck to wait 10yrs then have to rebuild all over again.

I've also been thinking of 2020 as hopefully the beginning of a long run of contention.

so now the grand plan is to contend in...2025?

Another masterful stroke of misrepresentation.

Happy should send this umpire flowers or something.

Stupid auto-correct. Though in this case, there was a little AI flavouring to the correction.

Surprisingly, FG has only 22 teams with better baserunning numbers than the Blue Jays.

Oh should be closing.

holy crap we won a series.

So far Smith is some sort of anti-Snider.

There's not a single young Blue Jays pitcher who looks like a sure thing for the next 3 years or more.

Could the Final Boss close some games again?

Donaldson seems to have modified his batting stance, he's quieted his feet and added more movement to his arms. Not a good sign.

Smith, Vlad, Biggio, Bichette, Thon ... the Jays have acquired a large number of second-gen players in recent years (I may be missing some).

It is interesting that the first four could be contributors at the same time within the next year or two.

I wonder if Happ would agree to a two-year extension (say, at 2/30), or whether he is inexorably headed for free agency at the end of the off-season.

“the Jays have acquired a large number of second-gen players in recent years (I may be missing some).”

I think Kacy Clemens’ father had sme MLB time too.

I expect this team to keep Tulo, Pillar, Martin. Smoak, Travis, Sanchez, Osuna, Tepera and prospects.

I expect them to trade: Solarte, Stroman, Donaldson (expect his #s to go up), Happ, Estrada/Garcia (whoever is performing better), Oh, Hernandez and possibly Bichette.

I expect them to look to trade for positional players in the mold of Michael Bourne/Grady Sizemore/Michael Brantley and pitchers like Carrasco or Flaherty.

I don't know where they would spend money. Here is what they will need once the prospects are up for 2020 contention:

C Jansen
1B Need
2B Travis/Bo/Biggio
3B Vlad
SS Tulo/Vicuna/Warmoth
OF Need/Need/Alford or other
DH Need

SP Need, Need, Sanchez, Borucki, Reid Foley
Closers Pearson

They're going to need proper Ace pitching and some OF help.

It would be bad management to trade Stroman unless his season does a 180. Even then he probably won't be traded this year.

Why would the Jays trade Hernandez and Bichette???

I wouldn’t mind bringing Happ back for two more years but he looks like a prime trade candidate who would be a fit for a lot of contending teams in July. If the Jays could pull a Chapman and trade him for pieces in July and then sign him back in the winter, I’d be fine with that. The team lacks 2019 pitching depth and Happ appears to like the city/org. It would be a smart play even if they are taking a step back. Happ might prefer going to a contender for his last meaningful contract, though.

The probably tried to trade Bichette last winter but every team would have insisted on Guerrero.
His value has taken a dive, for sure and it's not like Urena has shown that he deserves the shortstop spot.

Hernandez is 25, Pillar is 29.
Solarte is 30 and is having a really good year. Smoak is 31
Smoak has another option on his contract, Solarte has 2 but the second one at 8M might be a stretch.

Travis is 27, has been chronically injured and has started 2 consecutive seasons with month long slumps.
You can't compete in this division without some offense from 2B.

It's hard to extend struggling pitchers who have performed in the past.
Even the arbitration is going to be rough with Stroman and Sanchez.

Osuna probably gets traded over the winter.

I doubt Bichette’s value has taken much of a hit just because he’s encountered a brief stretch of adversity early in his first go-around at AA. He’s still hitting decently (112 wRC+), his defensive stock is up, and he’s young for the level. I think he’ll remain a top ten prospect at year’s end, or close to it.

I think when Stroman comes back he's a lot better and will have more trade value. Stroman doesn't have the traditional size of successful pitchers and I think that the office will look to move him because of that.

Bichette, as noted, has seen his numbers dip at every level he's moved up. Hes a top prospect and I see them trading him for another top pitching prospect or controllable player similar to Yelich last year.

This management won't trade anybody when their stock is low. If they trade Osuna it will be in a year after he's recovered and returns to sub elite at a very young age...if he recovers.

One thing nobody has remarked regarding Vlad...right now it appears that management wants Morales and Martin to find their stroke and regain some value so they can maybe be traded at the deadline. Same thing with Josh.

To the point...what do you say to calling up Vlad with the idea in mind that he can strengthen and lengthen the line up and give these guys better pitches to hit? Well, at least for Donaldson now that Teoscar is turning pumpkin like.

There are only 2 kids in AA hitting better than Bo that are 20 or under - Vlad and Tatis who are also probably the 2 top prospects in the minors.

Scott is but only one poster who is claiming that Bo's star is fading. For me I think he will be traded for a very valuable MLB controllable piece for a number of reasons:

His stock is very high right now

We have two other good prospects at SS in Warmoth and Vicuna

You can get bankable talent back

This management won't trade anybody when their stock is low.
They definitely sold low on Conor Greene, not that he's having a strong year. 

trading Bo is crazypants talk.

So, is it time to end the Biagini experiment and just try to get him back to being a solid reliever? Maybe make him watch 8 hours straight of footage from his good season?

They've simplified Biagini's delivery. They're not tweeking with that.
In his first year, that was mostly emotion that carried him up there, you can't recapture that feeling either.
He just needs to make his pitches. There's nothing wrong with his stuff, but the control hasn't been there.

This FO likes to have sustained waves of prospects in the pipeline. Why would they empty the farm when they have so many vets leaving and making room on the roster? The prospects will form the depth.

Martin is going nowhere. He's hitting .161 and making 20M. He's still a very popular personality in Quebec.
Maile could be traded if there's a decent offer. Maybe over the winter.

Pitchers that could be moved at the deadlines are guys like Chris Archer, Michael Fulmer and Cole Hamels.

re second generation players. Clemens mentioned above.
No olviden Gurriel Jr
I sort or recall there's another one whose outlook only recently getting interesting

Scott - I hope their desire for "sustain3d waves of prospects" doesn't mean they'll hold back deserving prospects for no other reason.

They have never held back any prospect IMO. Currently they are dealing with the logjam of IFs in Lansing and Dunedin. I feel K Smith is doing well and deserves a promotion. Maybe soon for him.

Kevin Smith will likely move up once Lansing wins the first half and clinches a playoff spot.

Russell Martin is your left fielder today. There is a short porch in Boston but still.....

I wonder if Maile can keep this up long enough to actually earn some real trade value.

Today's game will be #54, which would complete the 1st third of the season. Decided to compare our hitters so far to last years final numbers. Rankings best to worst, so high K% ranks low.

2018 (AL rank) 2017 (AL rank)

BB% 9.6% (2) 8.8% (8)
K% 24.1% (12) 21.6 (9)
ISO .179 (4) .172 (9)
BABIP .275 (15) .276 (15)

AVG .228 (14) .240 (15)
OBP .309 (12) .312 (13)
SLG .408 (9) .412 (13)

wRC+ 94 (10) 91 (15)

Baserunning and defence are counting stats, so 2018 multiplied by 3.

BSR -3.8 x 3 = -11.4 (13) -15.8 (14)
DEF -13.0 x 3 = -39.0 (14) -32.9 (12)

With the second oldest batters in the league, we've become even more 3 true outcomes, the pathetic BABIP seems no fluke.

One fun fact I noticed. Kendrys Morales GIDP/SB.

2013-2017 99/0
2018 2/2

"Kevin Smith will likely move up once Lansing wins the first half and clinches a playoff spot."

when does the first half end again, Marc?

I expect a they're waiting for around that date for a bunch of promotions just for symmetry. i.e. that'll be when, say, vladdy and biggio get promoted, too.

Are the Jays trying to showcase "Russell Martin, the super super-utility, veg-o-matic of baseball players"?

Can't think of any other reason they're doing what they're doing. He is trade-able depending on how much salary the Jays are willing to keep.

I think it's probably more about showcasing Maile, tbh.

That too, but they could showcase Maile without playing Martin all over the field, if that's the real intention. They could have kept Pompey up instead of Smith.

I don't think they have any interest in benching Martin. He hasn't been great at the plate but he's been doing just enough that he's still just a hot streak away from hitting his projected solid offensive line.

UO playoff qualifications are different for NH. The top 2 teams in each division qualify. There is no 1st and 2nd half in the Eastern league or Buffalo.

So promotions would be soon, late or not this year. Those are just possibilities. Development should be a major factor IMO. But I don't know the details of that.

The Midwest AS game is June 19th. But that does not mean that is the end of the 1st half. "Clinching" is the key word. The promotions out of Lansing are obviously not in my hands but .... How are they weighing development VS PR. Lansing did not make it last year. This year ... "In the bag" ... "Snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?"

Here's the MWL standings. Note the elimination numbers

http://www.milb.com/standings/index.jsp?lid=118

yeah bpoz that's why I said it would be just for symmetry, to make all the major promotions through the system at around the same time, approx halfway thru the season.

Thanks hypobole. The 3rd and 4th place teams are still a threat. Seriously ... nothing in the bag. I thought we were very much closer, so I tried to be humorous. Too deflating to think about losing out on the 1st half.

Very sensible symmetry comment UO.

ugly, I'm not writing his career off either; I just think it's more likely than not he's thrown his last pitch for the Jays.