Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Noda, The Force Was With Him

Ryan Noda hit his first home run of the year in the eighth inning to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead and set Lansing up for the win. Maximo Castillo had his best start of the season. Buffalo won 7-3 with several good performances. New Hampshire came from behind to win thanks to a couple of late home runs from two of the lesser known players. Vlad did not reach base for the second time this season, cancel the promotion! Dunedin were rained out.

Buffalo

The Bisons jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the first inning. Tim Lopes and Anthony Alford singled to start the game for the Bisons. Lourdes Gurriel singled in two runs before Jason Leblebijian hit a three run home run. Columbus came back in the game to make it 5-3 but in the fifth Alford doubled followed by a home run from Randall Grichuk. Alford has been slow to get off the mark in AAA but his two hits in this game are an encouraging sign. Gurriel, Lopes and Leblebijian also had two hits each.

Taylor Guerrieri started and went five innings with three runs allowed. Conor Fisk pitched three shutout innings although he didn't have a strikeout. Fisk got just one ground ball, five flyballs and three pop outs.

New Hampshire

The Fisher Cats jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first, Cavan Biggio hit his 13th home run scoring Aledmys Diaz. But Portland fought back to take a 3-2 lead. In the bottom of the seventh Connor Panas hit his second home run of the season to tie things up. In the eighth Ryan Hissey hit his first homer of the season to put NH ahead. Later in the eighth Bo Bichette singled, went to third on a steal and error, and scored on a sac fly. Vlad Jr went 0-4 without a walk and his average dropped to .417. Panas and Diaz led the way with two hits each. In eight games from May 16 to May 23 Bo Bichette had three hits and saw his batting average drop from .279 to .244. Since then, in his next eight games, he has 12 hits and his average is back up to .269. You could say he has dealt with some adversity, always a marker for promotion. Is Vlad's failure to reach base some adversity for him?

Justin Dillon made his first start since his demotion from AAA. He pitched six innings and gave up two runs on eight hits. Jackson McClelland conceded a run in the seventh and Kirby Snead pitched the last two innings for the win.

Dunedin

Dunedin were rained out. The weather has been poor in Florida so far this season. A doubleheader is scheduled for tomorrow.

Lansing

Lansing played a close game. They trailed 2-0 headed to the seventh. They made it 2-1 with an unearned run. Chavez Young doubled with two outs and scored on a throwing error by the shortstop. That was only the second hit by the Lugnuts and headed to the eighth it was looking like a tough day for the hitters. But Yeltsin Gudino started the inning with a single and then Ryan Noda picked a great time to hit his first home run of the season.

Maximo Castillo delivered his best start of the year, he had nine strikeouts and just one walk in five innings. At one stage he punched out six hitters in a row. That is Castillo's second good start in a row after suffering through a rough patch earlier in May. Donnie Sellers went three innings, one run allowed, before Matt Shannon navigated a nervy ninth. In case you missed it Reggie Pruitt has been activated off the DL.

3 Stars

3rd star: Connor Panas and Ryan Hissey

2nd star: Ryan Noda

1st star: Maximo Castillo

Boxes

Posted by Gerry on Wednesday, May 30 2018 @ 09:50 PM EDT.

Noda, The Force Was With Him | 36 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

bpoz - Wednesday, May 30 2018 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#358831) #

Mayza is doing ok. We can use a lefty reliever.

Gerry - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#358849) #

Bo Bichette has a home run and a sac fly through two innings today.

And to follow on from the last thread, Dalton Pompey injured his thumb sliding into a base, per John Lott.

uglyone - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#358850) #

nice, Bo is officially on a tear now.

He already had a 257wrc+ over his last 7gms.

bpoz - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#358852) #

I never lost faith in Bo. I believe in patience. Still believe in SRF, C Green, Rowdy T, Urena, Perdomo and a few others.

uglyone - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#358853) #

well there was never a reason to give up on a 20yr old SS holding his own in AA - even what he was doing before the hot stream still meant he was a very good prospect.

uglyone - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#358856) #

John Lott @LottOnBaseball 3m Took this photo last week before a New Hampshire game. Manager John Schneider assured me that Vlad�s choice of glove for his warmup was his alone and unrelated to any plans the #BlueJays have.

Gerry - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#358859) #

Emerson Jimenez has been sent to Lansing with Andy Ravel off to Dunedin.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#358862) #

Perhaps this would be a good time for a BB poll question:

Should the Jays promote Vlad Jr. to the majors this summer?

(a) Yes
(b) No

Mike Green - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#358863) #

Jarred Kelenic is the mlb.com choice at #12 in the latest mock. I would be very happy with that. Nice swing and explosive sound off the bat.

hypobole - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#358864) #

No, but they will.

scottt - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#358865) #

Double poll question.

PeterG - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#358866) #

No and they won't.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#358867) #

Technically September 1-20 is summer. I presume that you are asking about the period before the rosters expand. In which case, no and no.

Nigel - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#358868) #

Assuming Mike's clarification is right, then "should" is also dependent upon whether you view that from a "2018 season, making the team better" perspective or a "longer term, making the team better" perspective. To those three questions I would then answer: yes, probably no, no.

Gerry - Thursday, May 31 2018 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#358869) #

Double poll now on the left.

uglyone - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#358872) #

what is the actual projected difference in financial commitment that we save by holding him out another year?

mathesond - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#358881) #

Why does this interest a Braves fan?

92-93 - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#358888) #

Absent a long term contract, the question is whether you want Guerrero on the team in late 2018 + early 2019 or the entire 2025.

If he handles AAA this summer like he did A and AA, holding him back into June to avoid a 4th year of arbitration will be a tough sell, even if the Jays don't make an effort this winter to compete for a wild card in 2019.

Chuck - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#358898) #

If he handles AAA this summer like he did A and AA, holding him back into June to avoid a 4th year of arbitration will be a tough sell, even if the Jays don't make an effort this winter to compete for a wild card in 2019.

Agreed. There are several things going on here (absent the long contract).

When do you start his service clock? If you start it in 2018 (a lost year) you lose a year at the end (as he enters his prime).
How do you get 7 years of control rather than 6? You don't bring him up until May (Bryant, Acuna).
How do you avoid super-2 status meaning 4 years of arbitration rather than 3? You don't bring him up until June.

I can see arguments for the first two, but not the third. The first two are about when to deploy and how long to keep the asset. The third one is just about saving money on what might be a generational talent. Blech.

bpoz - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#358901) #

Well thought out Chuck. We will see what happens.

uglyone - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#358902) #

ditto.

except I don't love this phrasing:

"How do you get 7 years of control rather than 6?"

it's always 7 years of control, just a question of when that 7 years starts.

Gerry - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#358903) #

Ugly,

If Guerrero makes the team out of spring training next year, how do you get seven years of control?

BlueJayWay - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#358904) #

I think UO means that it's always seven years provided you hold the player down till late April/early May or whenever that cutoff is. it's just a question of what year you do that.

uglyone - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#358906) #

my bad, I meant always 6yrs. and for the record, if they keep him down all year this year, then yeah I'd want them to keep him down for the extra month to start next year too.

But it's not next year yet. Right now June just started and Vladdy deserves to be up based on merit.

And if we do hold him down all year, don't we get stuck with this same argument again next may/june, when the team is similarly uncompetitive and he's still only 20 and could still use more time developing?

92-93 - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#358908) #

No. As of today, it's reasonable to suggest he has defensive and mental (baserunning) issues that need work and that he should continue that progression in AAA before coming to the majors.

If/once he has shown he is the best hitter at that level too for 2 months this year and 2 months next year, the argument for keeping him down in the minors becomes a much harder sell. If they can't keep him down there into early 2020, then there's no reason to keep him down there in the summer of 2019.

Unless this team has a serious turnaround over the next 6-7 weeks, he's coming up after 15 days have passed in 2019 and he can no longer accrue 172 days of service time. A long term contract obviously changes the timeline.

uglyone - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#358911) #

eh, I'd argue that plenty of people would think it unreasonable to keep a player down well past 1000pa in milb when he's destroying it like he is now.

and Vladdy might be one of those people.

whiterasta80 - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#358915) #

Agreed, Vlad knows he's ready. Delay too long and you anger a potential generational talent.

hypobole - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#358917) #

eh, I'd argue that plenty of people would think it unreasonable to keep a player down well past 1000pa in milb when he's destroying it like he is now.

I agree it's unreasonable. But that is the system agreed upon in the CBA. Neither management or the union really have minor leaguers best interests much on their lists of priorities..

ayjackson - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#358924) #

I'm of the opinion that if it takes a day or a week to eliminate Super 2 status, sure, wait it out. Otherwise, he should be up. He might already be in his prime. Ken Griffey Jr was certainly into his prime by age 20.

If he isn't on our team in 7 years, we'll have his value in trade instead. So I don't care about his clock.

Dr B - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#358925) #

Vlad knows he's ready.

With the bat, probably. But maybe he wants to be a third baseman in the major leagues, and he may well know he isn't ready for that.

Mike Green - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#358926) #

He might already be in his prime. Ken Griffey Jr was certainly into his prime by age 20.

Griffey was called up at age 19. He slashed .264/.329/.420 (Guerrero Jr. probably would do a little better than that). He hit .300/.361/.481 the next year. In his prime at age 26-28, he was a lot better than that, slugging over .600. Mel Ott would probably be a better example of a player who had it right from the start.

ayjackson - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#358928) #

I think Griffey's prime was more like age 20-30. The had elite numbers for at least that period of his career. Maybe we define prime differently, but for the sake of discussing whether a 20 year-old should be in the majors, his prime started at 20.

dan gordon - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#358930) #

If you had Griffey for 7 years starting with his age 19 season, you would have gotten 40.4 WAR. For 7 years starting with his age 20 season, 46.8 WAR, and for 7 years starting with his age 21 season, 50.7 WAR. That's the highest WAR he produced for a 7 year stretch.

James W - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#358938) #

So Griffey's best 7 season stretch started at age 21. But if the argument is "When should he have been called up to optimize?" then it's hard to know how he would have done if banished in the minors until age 21.

ayjackson - Friday, June 01 2018 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#358954) #

How much WAR do you just throw away by waiting for a generational prospect to reach 21? I think it's unethical to keep him down. If it's because the GM thinks they'll lose him in 7 years for nothing, then he's a terrible GM.

I wonder if the only reason Vlad is playing 3B is to give the Jays a justification to keep him in the minors. I wonder if they never intend to play him at 3B in the majors. Maybe in July, they promote him to AAA and move him to LF or 1B.

hypobole - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#358967) #

"How much WAR do you just throw away by waiting for a generational prospect to reach 21?"

I don't think anyone with any knowledge of the game believes he's going to stay in the minors until the 2020 season.

"If it's because the GM thinks they'll lose him in 7 years for nothing, then he's a terrible GM."

This is ridiculous. The extra year of control has value and other, good GM's, have also played it this way.

"I wonder if the only reason Vlad is playing 3B is to give the Jays a justification to keep him in the minors. I wonder if they never intend to play him at 3B in the majors."

It was the AA regime that put him at 3rd base. He'll never be a plus defender there, but most people who've actually watched him play believe he'll be able to play there for a few seasons. Miguel Cabrera was never a plus 3B, but he wasn't moved to 1B until he because an awful defender. A below average defensive 3B is still more valuable than a mediocre 1B or a bad LF'er.

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