I have a bad feeling about this series.

Glad Pat's back. Schulman just doesn't have Pat's comedic timing.

Bad as in a Jays sweep?

What's the worse that could happen? A bench clearing brawl seems pretty unlikely.

Incidentally, there's another show to watch a 9:00 and I have a bad feeling about that one.
Talk about it. Laugh about it. Anyway you look at it you lose.

What's the worse that could happen?

60 day DL's

And feeling bad is both my fate and my shtick.

Is this a pitchers duel or a non-hitters duel?

I think we're beginning to see why Clippard's been with seven different organizations in the last three years.

Clippard's physique isn't his only similarity to Sammy "Mayday" Malone.

Occasionally when you shop in the discount aisle you find a bargain - most of the time you get what you paid for.

On a positive note, I just turned on to watch the 9th inning and got to watch what I thought was Grichuk's best AB of the year. Travis looks like a completely different hitter since his return.

Grichuk was robbed of a double called foul earlier in the game too. Cherish the small good things.

As much as Morales is a dead weight, both with his production and contract, neither is as bad as Chris Davis.

From a Dan ZIPS tweet last night

"It's pretty frightening to be on an "on-pace-for" the worst season of all-time by a large margin when you're nearing mid-June. Chris Davis's on-pace-for in fWAR would rank him 81892 out of 81892 player-seasons since 1901. By NEARLY A FULL WIN."

He's also owed over $100 million through 2022.

Yikes. I didn’t realize Davis was that bad. It’s yet another warning flag against long term extensions for aging vets like JD. With so many pitchers hitting 95+ these days, it’s tougher and tougher for the Davis’ and Bautista’s to fight the aging curve. Baseball may becoming more and more a young man’s game.

Grichuk missed all of May

Mr/Ap 77 PA, 31.2 K%, 19 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR
June 16 PA, 6.3 K%, 167 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

Jeff Sullivan today with a breakdown of which teams are getting extra strikes for there pitchers/ extra strikes called against their batters.

Jays one of 7 teams with both pitchers and hitters being gifted by the umps and 8th overall in umpire generosity. Pitchers have been given a total of 17 extra strikes, hitters 15 fewer than they should have.

Interesting the Yankees hitters have seen the most extra strikes called against them - though it makes sense with the amount of pitches Yankee hitters take, umps don't want to spend 5 hours crouching behind home plate.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-most-and-least-team-friendly-strike-zones/

Davis such a weird case. He literally only had 2 seasons as an even average MLBer by age 29 (and they weren't even consecutive seasons), but both were legit MVP-type seasons.

But signing a 30yr old 1B to a 7yr mega deal based on only 2 seasons, no matter how good they were, always seemed a stretch to me.

Davis was a poor investment when you consider that the team could have allocated those resources to a Machado extension instead.

For similar reasons, I would prefer to see the Jays devote resources to a long-term contract for Guerrero Jr. in lieu of spending on an older free agent like Donaldson or Fowler or Cain. At this stage of the win curve, anyway.

A rather fascinating little piece about shifting at ESPN. Overall the stats have always pointed out that they save runs. But new data suggests maybe otherwise.

"Before now, any shift-related data you'd see referred only to what happened to balls hit into play in shift situations. It did not include all the pitches in between those balls that get into play"

"The shocker was this: Pitchers walk more batters when throwing in front of a shift. In fact, the extra number of walks exceed the number of singles saved by the strategy."

"However, once you factor in the walks and the slightly higher home run rates (i.e., the increased launch angles meant to hit the ball over the shift), batters have put up a .336 wOBA against the shift versus a .334 on non-shifted players."

Also a bit of stuff on bullpen shuttles, James Shields back from the depths to mediocrity and a remembrance of Red Schoendienst, who just passed away.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23724818/to-shift-not-bullpen-shuttle-mlb-next-big-thing

For this to be a win curve, shouldn't the Jays, y'know, win?

Well, whatever you call it, it's better than the flatline at .500 we endured for 20 years.

For similar reasons, I would prefer to see the Jays devote resources to a long-term contract for Guerrero Jr. in lieu of spending on an older free agent like Donaldson or Fowler or Cain. At this stage of the win curve, anyway.

Absolutely. If he stays healthy, his next 10 years will likely be his best. Whether management has the stomach for that, we’ll see.

On the topic of I can't recommend Russell Carlton's BP piece and book The Shift. The book includes many more insights about the game and takes a stats AND scouts AND psych approach to the game.

"On the topic of I can't recommend Russell Carlton's BP piece and book The Shift."

that bad, eh?

Stroman tweeted that he is ready.

in spanish.

What about Teoscar Hernandez is he for real?

He's looking like a 1-WAR player this year, with his OBP and his defense dragging down his slugging. I think going year to year with him is an easy call, especially given that he's 25.

"Other prospects look good but not Vlad good and less than Vlad level isn't worth signing before they reach."

Except these are the guys that would sign a la Kingery in Philly. Jansen potentially would be a guy who might take one of those 6 years plus 3 team option deals.

The quality of Teoscar's defence is subject of reasonable debate.  He sometimes looks lost, but when he doesn't he covers a lot of ground.  Statcast has him as exactly average, and UZR and DRS have him as quite a bit below.  For very small samples, I think I prefer Statcast. 

Hernandez could well find his footing in LF, where he does look better. And he could get his OBP up. I'm not suggesting either are impossible, or even improbable. I'm just saying that he's not the type of player you go out of your way to lock up long term. Not at this age. Not with this track record.

I wouldn't lock him up long-term either.  You might think about a shortish extension in a couple of years.

Angels PR @LAAngelsPR
Shohei Ohtani will be placed on the disabled list with a grade 2 sprain of the UCL. He underwent a PRP and Stem Cell injection yesterday with Dr. Steve Yoon in Los Angeles. He will be re-evaluated in 3 weeks and we will update his plan of care at that time.

Great news for the Mariners.

Mike - even DRS and UZR disagree on his defense.

UZR seems him as bad, while DRS sees him as horrendous.

Heh. That's what I get for using a phone with this board. Autocomplete must think I'm a negative guy.

Granderson leads off and DHs tonight. There's an outfield of Hernandez, Pillar and Grichuk. Now we're cooking with gas!

Gibby gets a like.

Right now, Hernandez profiles a useful 4th OF, for the OBP and defence issues noted above. He might improve but unlikely in a manner that demands a long term deal. To me, Travis and (weirdly)Maile look like the only position players with a longer term future on the club.

There are no pressure on Travis now, but he'll be 28 next year and they keep drafting promising middle infielders.

I hope to be surprised but I don't expect much from Travis. Even if he gets hot I am skeptical about his ability to stay healthy and take a walk.

I was always wondered how Hernandez had 50/55 field grades in the minors, but yet has showed fairly poor instincts in the majors. My overall take though is that its easier for him to go from very poor to very average on defence than it will be for some of the other youngish guys to go from average to very good power.

He's still a wait and see guy, but he has a more permanent seat at the table than Travis, Grichuk, Pillar or Maile. Travis is showing he can still be a good hitters ince his return but the Jays have a lot of good infielders coming up and you will also worry about his durability.

Why all the small ball?

Our baserunning is bad, but Gibby's decisions make it seem abysmal.

Why all the small ball?

Because Buck and Pat keep asking for it!

How not to score runs 101.

If you squint really hard this team finally does look a little younger, and a little more athletic than the last few years. It games like this that make you drool about Grichuk, but I know he’s a streaky guy. It’s nice seeing an all under 30 outfield out there.

In the more athletic vein, I think Bucky mentioned this, but Teoscar just hit his 5th triple this year. The entire team hit 5 total in a full season last year.

The lineup does look a lot better with Granderson platooning with Morales at DH and Grichuk in the OF. Once Pearce gets back it will get complicated in terms of playing time, but hopefully this is the configuration until that happens.

Happ continuing to build trade value. Good.

I still have faith that Hernandez can be a valuable regular for the next few years.

You'll like MLBTR ranking Happ the third best trade candidates in baseball then.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/top-50-mlb-trade-candidates.html

Teoscar somehow looks great in left. To his left, to his right, with the arm....so weird given how bad he looked in right.

Please gibby stick with this outfield and the grandy/kendrys platoon DH.

How can the video review umpires be so bad?

Teoscar looks much better in LF than RF.

Morales now officially the worst hitter on the healthy roster:


Smoak 125wrc+
Pearce 122
Teoscar 121
Maile 120
Grandy 106
Donaldson 104
Solarte 103
Pillar 97
Diaz 89

Martin 84
Grichuk 57
Travis 53
Morales 53

(Tulo ---)

But Morales' mentorship skills are the best.

Jose Torres of the Padres just got suspended 100 games for domestic violence.

Once Roberto Osuna's case clears the courts, it looks like he will get something similar.

Roberto Osuna come from a different culture than exists in Canada. He is now finding out how Domestic Violence is treated in this country. MLB gets him next. 1) If he accepts blame for his actions and accepts punishments, Publicly and privately apologizes for his action, then he gets a second chance. 2) Anything less, he’s done as a Jay.

The Blue Jays are finding out who has a future with the Jays. They are doing their best to maximize trade value of as many assets as possible, but they won’t succeed with everyone. If they get their price, they might trade someone, otherwise not. As bad as they are, it’s mostly carelessness that’s costing more/most of these losses. Any 10-11 game win streak gets them right back into it. Any .720 month would do as well. An MVP Donaldson returning could do it easily. A pre-2018 Marcus Stroman could make a difference. The Tulowitzki we got in 2015 and 2016 could do it as well. All is possible, but likely?

If someone from the recent Draft can make an appearance in September and be effective, that could be a big trade asset or an answer. Or make the Roster in 2019 and be effective, that could be a huge trade asset or an answer. The question, who’s on the Roster next Year?

The Jays were after Groshans and found Kloffenstein, a front of the Rotation talent. They were looking at people and found others. Until they sign and start playing we really don’t know what we have in this Draft.

"Made no sense as Upshaw was easily the worst of the 3 at the time but got the most playing time"

John, this reminds me of a conversation I was having at a Jays' game during that time period. A friend and I were comparing the Jays' roster, position by position, to the other teams in the American League, and I said that every OTHER team in the league had TWO first baseman better than the Jays' first baseman. Another friend sitting behind me tapped me on the shoulder and said THE JAYS have TWO first basemen better than the Jays' first baseman. We all got a laugh out of that because he was right.

Why all the small ball?

Gibby's just trying to have some fun.

Every starter in the rotation has a good start, just in time for Stroman's return.

"Why all the small ball?"

It's called playing to your strengths.

We're the only MLB team without a bunt hit. By my calculations, that ranks 30th in MLB.

Urena has been the only Jay to successfully lay down a sacrifice bunt, which probably played no small part in having him sent back to Buffalo. That "1" also ranks 30th.

FG has us as the 29th ranked baserunning team, only the Rays have been worse.

In an amusing side-note, only 3 of the 9 starters last night (Pillar, Travis, Grichuk)) have better baserunning numbers than Kendrys Morales. Though to be fair, Morales' baserunning numbers might not look as good if he actually reached base once in a while.

It does not mean much, but just to compare. Last year at this time only Houston .705 and NYY .596 were .600 or better teams. This year we have 4. 2 of them currently own the WC. Boston and Houston.

"We're the only MLB team without a bunt hit."

Pillar gets our 1st one. Then promptly gets thrown out trying to steal 2nd.

Everybody in this bullpen frightens me now.

What a collapse. Why do the Jays always seem so bad in fundamentals?

#BlueJays claim RHP Preston Guilmet from STL

Deck McGuire DFAd

from Keegan Matheson:

Preston Guilmet is going to report to the #BlueJays and a corresponding move will be made.

Toronto may want to keep Biagini's length, but he's looked very uncomfortable on the mound.

Nice pitching, Givens.

Good thing he was Given and not takin :)

Aledmys Diaz' BABIP sits at .231.  That is going to rise, as he hits the ball hard and runs well.  He's actually been quite good on both sides of the ball this year.  I'm happy to have been completely wrong about him.

Is Diaz controllable beyond this year?

He is controllable until 2023.

They were relative minor trades, but the front office appears to have done pretty well with the Solarte, Diaz, and Grichuk acquisitions. None of the players the Jays gave up in those trades have done much this year.

disagree 100% greenfrog on the Grichuk acquisition- the jury is out there, but until his injury Leone was looking better than Grichuk, is cheaper, and has more years of control.  and Greene may still have value, we sold low on him.  He just turned 23 and if he can ever get the walks under control he could start in the bigs - right now, he still profiles as a decent reliever.
Diaz was a great move, agreed, in that Woodward was a bust and Diaz might yet be a quality bench player.  Solarte has been the Jay I've enjoyed watching the most this year, and his contract is great... I like Olivares, but he's struggling with the Padres and appears to be a 4th OF type at best. 

With rare exceptions if you can get an everyday player for a reliever you do it. Relievers are a dime a dozen as we've seen over and over again. Yeah, it sucks when you have one do a great year then they leave but often they suck again in a year or two.

2016: Biagini 3.06 ERA in 68 IP (don't see that coming back);
Joaquin Benoit 0.38 ERA in 24 IP over 4 ERA last year and 7.56 so far this year. He made over $7 mil in 2017 for that meh performance and $1 mil for this years.
Francisco Liriano: dumped on Houston last year 4.40 ERA in relief, 3.90 ERA as a starter again this year for Detroit for $13.7 mil last year and $4 mil this year. Good deal for Detroit but I sure wouldn't trust that as his FIP is 4.97 so expect him to struggle later.

Brett Cecil: a long time fan favorite here, $15 mil over past 2 years and another $15 coming to him for 2019/2020. 3.88 ERA last year, 6.75 this year. 4.18 overall since leaving in 75 IP. That is a lot of money for 'meh'.

I remember many lamenting Liam Hendriks heading out. 4.19 ERA in 133 IP so a lot of 'blah' there. $3.5 mil so not a lot of money but not much in results. 0.7 WAR. Not a big loss obviously.

I still think the Grichuk trade was a good one. Relievers are very volatile year to year and Greene wasn't much of a prospect anymore. Given his power potential, defense/base running combo, and age, it was a solid risk to take. There is also still time for him to turn it around with the bat. He just crossed 100 plate appearances on the year. He has been awful for the most part but not a ton of sample yet. If he's a ~100 wRC+ hitter with good defense and base running, then he'll be solid value.

Leone only has 1 more year of control, FA after the 2021 season, Grichuk after the 2020 season.

(PeterG, Saturday, June 09 2018 @ 03:44 PM EDT) from Keegan Matheson: Preston Guilmet is going to report to the #BlueJays and a corresponding move will be made.

(greenfrog, Saturday, June 09 2018 @ 06:51 PM EDT) They were relative minor trades, but the front office appears to have done pretty well with the Solarte, Diaz, and Grichuk acquisitions. None of the players the Jays gave up in those trades have done much this year.
Does it mean that the Jays management has been collecting minor pieces of the puzzle for success in those ways to complement the home-grown top prospects such as Vald Jr, Biggio the younger son and Bichette the younger son.

If relievers are so fungible, than why are so many teams paying such a premium for them?  In the offseason when position players were cheap as heck? at the trade deadline when JD Martinez and Joe Smith yield comparable returns? 

John Northey, I'm the poster that most lamented the Hendricks deal, and I'll continue to make the point, regardless of your posting a relatively meaningless ERA and salary.  Hendricks' 2.3 fWAR in 2016/17, while also a crude indicator, is more telling.  and of course, the fact that he was dealt for the worthless, relatively expensive Jesse Chavez makes that deal a clear, lopsided loss for the Jays. 

40 something Benoit in 24 IP?  that's meaningless.  I'd rather have Leone than Cecil, not sure why you are comparing a team-controlled reliever in his prime with FA-priced Cecil.  and I've also been the loudest critic of Biagini - many talked about getting more rule v talent the past two offseasons - remember our pick last year?  I don't.  Biagini was the fungible reliever you are talking about though, but he has the lesser pedigree than Leone.  and actually, Biagini didn't need to be a one year wonder, we appear to have ruined him with mismanagement, but that's a different story. 
 
time will tell on the Leone-Grichuk deal in a vacuum.  far more important is the logic behind the deal, and I do see the logic from both teams-  the Cards are probably the most lauded FO on the box.  are they suddenly idiots, trading a position player for a reliever?  the 'relievers are fungible meme' is just too simple and incomplete.  And no, I don't mean you don't have to sign FAs to stupid deals.   26 year old Leone, with his 94 MPH FB and extra year of control, along with the fireballing conner greene, who we sold low on, are the type of package we might regret for Grichuk.  Greene is the exact sort of prospect that could turn into a quality reliever.  FA outfielders were cheap as heck this offseason.  I like Grichuk and thought the trade was fair, but if Leone isn't injured right now, is this even a topic for debate?

New (and former) Jay Preston Guilmet is a bit of an odd one. His minor league numbers have been consistently excellent, with an ERA of 2.59 and WHIP of 1.00 in 493 innings, many of them in AAA. An excellent K:BB ratio of 541:105. In has few trips to the big leagues, though, he's been terrible, with an ERA of 9.36 and WHIP of 1.64. Only 25 innings, so there is the small sample size issue. His minor league numbers would indicate that he might be able to help.

"If relievers are so fungible, than why are so many teams paying such a premium for them? In the offseason when position players were cheap as heck? at the trade deadline when JD Martinez and Joe Smith yield comparable returns?"

You are confusing a few different things here.
1) Elite relievers are extremely valuable for playoff teams. An elite reliever pitches a much more significant percentage of the team's innings. For non playoff teams, relievers are still not worth that much. This is why rebuilding teams trade elite relievers.
2) Elite relievers are not fungible per se but many more players become elite relievers out of nowhere than elite anything else. You look at the top-10 relievers by WAR this year (not a great measurement but as good as any single one) and it's led by Josh Hader and has guys like Joe Jiminez, Adam Cimber, Craig Stanmen, etc....on it. Other positions don't get this level of turnover at the top.
3) Very few relievers, even elite ones, have long careers at the top. There are a few Kimbrel/Chapman types but many more Naftali Feliz, Trevor Rosenthal, Mark Melancon types.
4) JD Martinez didn't get a big return because there just weren't a lot of teams looking for a DH.
5) Losing Liam Hendriks was nothing to cry about. He's a middle reliever with an ERA of around 4.30 and an XFIP of around 3.60 over 2+ seasons. B Reference (whose pitching WAR I much prefer to Fangraphs-player value of accomplishment rather than what they theoretically should have accomplished) has him at 0.7 WAR over 2+ seasons.
6) Nobody thinks the Cards are idiots for trading Grichuk. They had a surplus of OFers and traded one for a reliever which they badly needed. It was a trade that made sense for them.

I think there's a bit of sentimentality here as Guilmet was signed by Cleveland in 2009.
Clearly Gaviglio has won the 6th starter spot.

Here's an intriguing article about Guilmet's odd stuff.

https://www.draysbay.com/2015/5/14/8605619/tampa-bay-rays-preston-guilmet-scouting-report-interesting-pitcher-matt-silvermans-inside-joke

Relievers are fungible, but, doing everything to acquire the best relievers is a key ingredient of the recent instant Yankees rebuild.

Relievers are much less fungible than they used to be, at least in the eyes of MLB teams. In the past only elite relievers with a track record of multi-season success had true value, both in terms of trade and pay. As starter innings have shrunk and reliever innings have grown, teams are budgeting more for for their bullpen and even (especially) middle relievers values have increased. Having trustworthy pitchers to bridge the ever increasing starter/closer gap has become much more important, especially for teams that consider themselves contenders. Hence the premium prices in trade at the deadline.

But while not as fungible as they used to be, relievers are still volatile, due to the small sample sizes of their work.

As for the Grichuk trade. Grichuk wasn't just surplus in St. Louis, he was out of options. Cards had to do something.

And yeah, when Leone went down, he was worth more than Grichuk, even though Leone at the time was worth 0.0 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR, because Grichuk was in a horrific slump - his -0.4 fWAR made him one of the worst players in all baseball.

However, after missing all May, Grichuk and his new more upright stance has been one of the best players in all baseball so far in June. His value on the season is now up to 0.0 bWAR, 0.1 fWAR.

Leone has been transferred to the 60 day DL with a mysterious nerve ailment in his arm. And Conner Greene, after 42 AA starts with essentially the same results over the past 3 seasons as a starter, has made his past 3 appearances out of the pen, the last 2 in AAA.

Mike, I'd guess the 27 yr old Green is more likely to stay healthy than 34 yr old Morton. But the answer could also be neither.

With respect to Osuna, at the speed at which Canadian courts move, he's probably in limbo for the rest of this year and potentially most of next year even before a suspension is handed out.

Torres in San Diego was given a 100 day suspension and accepted it, even though his criminal charges are still pending.

New (and former) Jay Preston Guilmet is a bit of an odd one.
Did some party checked his pitching against performance? Looking at his last two outings against the Marlins, his sliders and fastballs inside the strike zone were quite hittable. His fastballs down in the middle were hit hard for homeruns, fastball away produced strikeout, possibly he was ahead in the count and the batters chased his pitches. His sliders down in the middle produced strikeout, possibly the hitter was looking for a fastball after fastball strikes.
I just guessed that if he gets ahead in the count using fastball for strikes on the edge of the strike zones and then alternate his pitches with fastballs and sliders, producing strikeouts. His fastballs during those matches were 90-93 mph and sliders 82-94 so his sliders can perceive as fastballs to the batters. Their velocities drop 1 mph per 4 batters.

The issue with the Hendriks trade (of which I was and continue to be critical) was not the trading of Hendriks as much as it was the return (i.e. Jesse Chavez). I would have be fine with trading Hendriks in a different deal, but to deal him for Chavez seemed very curious. Not surprisingly, the Jays didn't need to use Chavez as a starter and he was handily outperformed in the bullpen by Hendriks. It's also not surprising that Hendriks has never been as good as he was in 2015 with Toronto.

With respect to the volatility of non-elite relievers, if you look to Toronto's bullpen John Axford was out of baseball in the second half of 2017 and Tyler Clippard was left off of Houston's postseason roster in every round. Both were available for the veteran's minimum this offseason and, by WAR, they have been tied for the club's second-most valuable relievers so far this year behind Tepera.

Yeah for me some FOs' new valuation of relievers is probably just as wrong now as it was before. Spending on non-elite RP is still a fool's game for me.

Not surprisingly, the Jays didn't need to use Chavez

Because their starting staff didn't suffer any injuries of note. That hardly ever happens. By the time they needed another starter, to manage Sanchez workload, Chavez had bombed out, so they traded for Liriano.

Wasn't this the bum a bunch of us wanted to give up a draft pick to sign?

That said, Chatwood of 8.64 BB/9 was my guy.

Chavez was just more money thrown away on on borderline replacement level get crap.

Go Grichuk Go

Chavez had been worth 2.3 fWAR the year prior. Happ is our only starter this year on pace to equal that.

Buy high sell low.....wait...

Yeah, trading Hendricks set organisation back years.

We should trade our successful players for other teams unsuccessful players so we're buying low and selling high?

Moms Mabley made a crack that "he was so ugly, he hurt my feelings". Well, the Orioles are just that ugly. Watching them hurts. I can't imagine what managing them would feel like.

They are on pace for a 48-114 season which is only slightly below what Pythagoras would say. And there's every chance that they'll be unloading Machado shortly, to further exacerbate the ugliness.

The Jays may bemoan their 38 games against powerhouses Boston and NY, but 19 gimmes against these sad sacks is a welcome salve.

The sad part about the Orioles is that they weren't trying to tank in the offseason, signing both Cashner and Cobb.

We should trade our successful players for other teams unsuccessful players so we're buying low and selling high?

Yes, but only when the successful player traded away is going to crash and burn with his new organization, and the unsuccessful player acquired is going to suddenly become awesome from out of nowhere. Pretty obvious, really - about as obvious as Liam Hendricks being the missing piece to the 2018 Jays being favorites to win it all.

With the crystal ball some posters seem to have about this stuff, it's a wonder they're not all billionaires. They could buy their own MLB franchises and run off 30 or so straight World Series wins.

/sarcasm

This might be the most Liam Hendriks has been talked about on any forum in the last 3 years.

Grichuk is not a perfect player by any means, but he has legit power and is going to be a plus on defense and base running. Even as bad as he has been with the bat so far, he is still (very slightly) above replacement level heading into today's game with no where to go but up.

Leone is not an elite reliever with a track record. He was a waiver claim that did well for a year and is now hurt/not doing as well the following year. This type of thing happens with relievers all the time. Don't confuse elite relievers (ex. Andrew Miller) with guys who come out of no where. The Jays could have traded Osuna in the off-season and gotten a ton back (elite, track record). Leone, Tepera, and guys like that are not going to fetch the type of returns because a talent discrepancy exists, and also more volatility due to a lack of track record.

The trade made sense for both teams and was perfectly reasonable from either perspective. Greene is the wild card, but his stock has dropped considerably. Even the Cardinals are using him in relief now in AAA so they might have given up on his SP future as well.

Chavez was a junk pickup.

Nice game Estrada. And now, to add some excitement to what looks to be a blowout, here comes the Blue Jay bullpen!

The front office has been adding assets (along with a couple of liabilities like Morales) and has given up very little of value in the way of prospects, draft picks, or opportunity cost in the form of cumbersome contracts.

Recent additions include Teoscar, Diaz, Solarte, Grichuk, Gaviglio, Estrada, Garcia, and roughly half the bullpen — all at very little cost in cash commitment or prospects. The drafting and development appear to be pretty good, too. And they have one of the top trade chips this summer in Happ (himself an astute acquisition). To me, it looks like textbook rebuilding. I don’t see the cause for complaint.

Why isn't Biagini in Buffalo?

Add Granderson and Maile to the front office’s list of low-cost but effective additions.

They signed Cobb for 4/57M and they lost a pick on him.

Cashner 2/16M plus an option.

Tillman 1/3M.

And that's pretty much all they did.
Rasmus, Alvarez, Valencia, Gentry were all minor league contracts.

Here's a club that's looking at a long rebuild.

And they're paying $23 million a year to one of the worst players in the big leagues for the next 4 seasons.

When do they play the Orioles again?

Chavez was a junk pickup.

Yep, we know. Solarte, Grichuk, and Diaz are bench players, so they're junk too. Pretty sure Smoak was a "junk pickup" too. No wait, he was acquired by the previous regime, so never mind. My bad.

Esmil Rogers was one of the the ultimate junk pickups on this board, because he stunk and posters here knew Gomes would turn into a 4 WAR player.

Grichuk and Diaz were brilliant pickups, actually.

Chavez was a junk pickup.

An outfield of Grichuk, Pillar and Hernandez

Yep, may as well lock in with this and see where it goes. Leave the old dudes on the bench.

With the two-header Granderson/Pearce no longer a corner platoon outfielder, Pearce may find himself DFA'd upon his return as he'll be entirely redundant with Morales. That he's better than Morales is irrelevant given that one is under contract next year and one isn't. I can't believe Pearce would have any trade value this season, not as old and brittle as he is.

On the other hand, if pillars hitting slips back down to career norms maybe he's the one in danger of losing playing time.

Tim Mayza optioned to Buffalo to make room for Guilmet. Clearly, Biagini has compromising photos of someone. We just don't know who.

Biagini should be given a complete season in Buffalo as a starter to see if there is any chance of positive development.

It's been fun seeing the dynamic, impactful Grichuk we thought we were getting - the best part of this sad season is watching some of the younger guys and following the prospects on the farm. 

But the other reason I'm not a huge fan of the Grichuk trade is that he blocks guys in Buffalo who are getting close to big-league ready.  Buffalo has an OF of Pompey, AA, Smith Jr and Fields, while NH has Davis and Ramirez.  Several of those guys are likely bench players at best, but It's a bit of a waste of resources.  With the explosion of position prospects in the system the past few years, this will certainly be an issue going forward. 

I wonder if the org is keeping Biagini in part out of appreciation for his willingness to go down to Buffalo as the 6th starter when he could have been making a lot more money pitching out of the big league pen.   That plus his ability to work multiple innings seems reason enough for the 25th man. 

Well our lot in life is not unusual for an aging team. Of 9 other teams that made the playoffs in 2015, 4 have worse records than us, and another is close.

If you have too many OF'ers, just do what the Cards did with Piscotty and Grichuk.

Interesting take on Biagini. Maybe.

Grichuk is 26 jer.


Fields 27
Davis 26
Grichuk 26
Hernandez 25
Pompey 25
Smith 25
Alford 23
Ramirez 23

Fields and Davis are milb fodder.

Hernandez and Smith are probably not actually outfielders.

Alford is nowhere near ready.

I wonder if Gurriel has earned another shot at the bigs. An OPS of .813 in Buffalo since his demotion is a good sign, and he'd be more useful to the Jays as a bench player than Urshela.

There is still a ditch to climb out of, but if Donaldson comes back strong, and Stroman can reset himself after the injury, the season is not lost quite yet. I'm encouraged by the starting pitching, as it appears Estrada and Sanchez have made turnarounds, and Garcia has been very good in two of his last three starts. Getting back to .500 is, obviously, the first step before talking seriously about contention for a wildcard.

Not one of the those outfielders outside of Hernandez and Grichuk has the arm to play right field outside of maybe Pompey who is injured and they didn't play him when Grichuk was injured. Hernandez has looked much better in left than right so far.

The Blue Jays this season are 6-1 against Baltimore, 2-7 against Boston, 3-7 against New York and 1-2 against Tampa.

They're 5-14 against the Yankees + Red Sox and 25-21 against the rest of the league.

Since I think MLB will always be closer to the EPL than the NFL in terms of economics, I hope part of the Jays' long term agenda is to push for a balanced schedule (or re-alignment, which I assume is more far fetched).

Thanks for the numbers Vulg. You pointed out the "mountain, brick wall" the Jays, Baltimore and TB are up against.

Does Baltimore get extra draft picks as a small market team? TB does, as well as some AL central and West teams. This would work against the excluded Jays, NYY and Boston, as well as some AL Central and West teams.

Also there are some cash donations to the small market teams. Based on these factors and any that I missed, how do you build a winner? What is the best strategy?

My first thought is that the Jay's have only 1 choice and that is to build "windows of contention". But there may be a way for TB to have a perennial contender. And of course everyone else in the AL that gets the charity.

Just putting my two pennies. Would a team outside of MLB, in North America or East Asia, take Morales?

TJ for Ohtani. Out until 2020.

Terrible.

cyber - you either seem to have little knowledge of MLB, or care far too much about players not in MLB.

Morales isn't the issue, so much as his contact is an issue. His contract, coupled with the value he provides, or any potential value could provide, makes him immovable within MLB, unless it's a swap of his contact for another terrible contract.

If the Jays release Morales, they are on the hook for his entire contact. Then he can go anywhere he wants to go - and yeah, maybe some team somewhere would want him on a cheap contract. Minor leaguers are sometimes sent overseas, but that is always at their request.

Inter3sting with Sanchez there, Mike - every year, whether starting or relieving, whether pitching well or poorly, Aaron has seen his FIP and xFIP track very closely together, but with the ERA always significantly lower, every time, on average by about 1 "run".

Are we ready to label him a legit fip-beater yet or are we still tentative after the Estrada regression?

ah good point on the unearned runs.

To my y understanding  dip ok wishes pitchers who aren't strikeout pitchers  so has the ki d of pitcher who will always outperfo4m those types of metrics if he is healthy and reasonably effective

lexomatic, the cellphone's autocorrect feature sometimes has its, um, failings.  Mine autocorrects "Teoscar" to "to scare"; most of the time, though, the corrections aren't helpful. 

The loss of Ohtani is huge for LAA. Obviously. You can never replace elite talent IMO. Their adjustments should be interesting.

Does Baltimore get extra draft picks as a small market team?

Baltimore does get 1 each year. However the O's aren't the Cards. (Sidenote - KLaw on the Card's Competitive Balance pick: "The Cardinals took Griffin Roberts (1A) with the extra pick MLB gives them every year for having the best fans in baseball.")

Baltimore seems to have an uncanny ability to screw up. They have the amazing combination of the worst team in baseball and not one player on Fangraph's Top 131 prospect list.

Ohtani is not having TJ surgery. He is getting platelet rich plasma injections and stem cell therapy. The report indicating he was having TJ was speculation, apparently.

It's interesting that Gibbons keeps batting Pillar #5 and will lead off Hernandez when Granderson isn't starting. They have the exact same .304 OBP, but Hernandez has more power. Gibby must think leading off has a psychological effect that he wants to avoid on Pillar, even though his numbers both leading off the game and an inning are better than his career numbers.

I wasn't going to say anything critical of Gibbons' batting order because the #1 thing is something I have carried on about all season. Besides, he's still got the birthday residue working for him...

Fields and Davis are milb fodder.

Hernandez and Smith are probably not actually outfielders.

Alford is nowhere near ready.
And Pompey is the DH: Designated gurney Human. I wish him well as a person, but.. As a baseball player, he seems like Dustin McGowan's cousin or Steve Pearce's step-brother. I would imagine he's probably off any long-term-planning lists at this point except as a last resort for a "what if" wild trade brainstorming session.

Mike Wilner tweeted a picture of Vladdy with several Blue Jays.  He's a big, big young man.

I had the same thought Mike, he is bigger than Morales.

I wonder if this injury to Guerrero doesn't have a silver lining. If he is headed for first base anyway, maybe better to do it in the minors and get some reps there. And that would give the front office cover to explain away promoting him any time soon.

I think pillars track record speaks for itself - he should never be hitting in the leadoff spot. Teoscar has been a much much better hitter so far. I don't want worse hitters getting more at bats.

Even the 5 spot is too high for Pillar, the.