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The #BlueJays are in Georgia for the next two games.



Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Tuesday at 7:35 pm ET - Marcus Stroman (1-6, 6.50) vs. Julio Teheran (6-6, 4.47)
Wednesday at 7:35 pm ET - Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.81) vs. TBA

Atlanta returns home after a rough road trip that saw them win two of three in St. Louis but drop two of three to the New York Yankees and three of four in Milwaukee. They are tied with Philadelphia for first place in the NL East at 50-39, 5.5 games ahead of Washington.

The Blue Jays dropped two of three to the Evil Empire at home. Their 41-48 record puts them 20.5 games out of first in the AL East.
Blue Jays @ Atlanta - July 10-11 | 63 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#361575) #
If we're going to catch the Yankees and Red Sox, there's no better time to start than now.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#361576) #
there's no better time to start than now.

Six weeks ago?
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#361578) #
No, just go 35-5. That will make everyone take notice.
scottt - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#361579) #
The Rays are just 10.5 games behind Seattle and are hotter than the Yankees.
I mean, they need to do something to finance that new ballpark, no?

AWeb - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#361582) #
I was joking just the other day that the Jays just need to win 40 games in a row to get back in it. Every game is winnable right? Probably would get them to 2nd wild card status? The AL is insanely top-heavy this year, thanks in part to teams like Toronto being bad instead of OK of course. 
uglyone - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#361583) #
just wanted to say how much I love that pic, JBrumfield!
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#361584) #
Toronto is a10 Pick if the season ended yesterday and if they stay miserable, it might improve. If the Jays can get hot and stay hot, Playoffs is the answer. Or just muddle in the middle.
scottt - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#361585) #
Nice to see Pillar ignore Rivera's stop and score without a throw.
Rivera must be pretty good at some things, but sending or stopping runners isn't one of those things.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 10 2018 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#361586) #
Smoak now with a 125 wrc+. He is quietly having a decent season.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 01:25 AM EDT (#361587) #
Along the lines of SK's trade package idea.

Deadline Packages

Pkg 1: Happ + Clippard + Solarte
Pkg 2: Estrada + Oh + Granderson
Pkg 3: Garcia + Axford + Morales

(pkg 3 not serious)
scottt - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 06:13 AM EDT (#361588) #
Sounds like the Yankees are interested in Happ, but not offering anything worthwhile at this point.
Cubs might be in the pictures. Lots of NL teams could use him really.

Indians have lost Chisenhall and could be a destination for Granderson, but they still have a huge lead in their division. Wouldn't be much coming back.

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#361589) #
Memo to Atl/Phil - you're having breakout seasons, now imagine your team with a superb TOR guy for the next few seasons not just a rental - please contact Shapkins asap - you could be drinking champagne in October and a contract extension come December.
christaylor - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#361590) #
This song goes through my head as I read the board.

It would be more interesting for someone to have a go at a take on the path to a. 2nd WC team in 2019. I think a decent cse could be made, starting with Donaldson accepting a QO...
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#361591) #
There were numerous cases made to have a go at the 2017 & 2018 WC
bpoz - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#361592) #
I believe that it was 85bluejay that said basically the window closed at the end of 2016. To trade Donaldson and 1 other star. I cannot remember who the star was. So 85bluejay nailed it. Shapiro too nailed it when he said he wanted to start a rebuild earlier.


I am all for stating cases for potential 2WC for 2019.


I would like to see a younger team and no expensive FA additions. Aim for 88 wins.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#361593) #
Stroman was very good last night.  When he can hit the corner up and in with a four seamer, he usually is. 

Stroman's ERA has bounced up and down over his career, but his xFIP has stayed between 3 and 4 every year. It would be nice to have him signed up through 2023 or 2024. 
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#361594) #
I can see a path to WC contention next year, with a rotation led by Stroman, Sanchez, Borucki, and SRF (I think they would need to add one more quality SP), and a lineup that (by June) includes Guerrero Jr., Bichette, and Jansen.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#361595) #
Yeah,, Zimmerman made the same argument for not going rebuild. It just sucks when best realistic case scenario is 2nd WC.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#361596) #
Interesting (and fairly short) read with Craig Counsell doing the talking.


https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-managers-perspective-craig-counsell-on-probabilities-and-the-big-picture/
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#361597) #
In Stroman's 4 starts since coming off the DL he has a 3.04 era in 24 innings with a 6.08 K/9, 2.66 BB/9 and a crazy 68.6 GB%. He certainly seems to have righted the ship.

My hope is that he finishes the year strong. MLB.com has his rest of year projection as a cumulative 4.82 ERA if he can keep up a 3.99 era for 13 more starts.

I don't think an extension will come easy with Stroman and with the risk of shoulder injuries to ground ball pitchers I think I would gauge Stroman's trade value once he has established himself again.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#361598) #
Yeah,, Zimmerman made the same argument for not going rebuild. It just sucks when best realistic case scenario is 2nd WC.

Why not just take it as it comes?  We really have no idea how good the players currently in the upper minors are going to be at the outset, and it's a delight to watch.  I'm getting a kick out of Borucki and Gaviglio this year.  It wouldn't shock me if Nate Pearson comes on strong and is a missing piece by mid-season next year.   

I had a look at the Red Sox' contractual obligations (all figures rounded) for next year- Price 31M, Martinez 24M, Pedroia 15M, Porcello 21M, Castillo 12M, Sale 14M, Vazquez 3M, Moreland 7M with Betts, Bogaerts and JBJ in the second year of arb and only Devers and Benintendi pre-arb.  I'm not seeing a lot of room to add necessary complementary pieces.  The Red Sox went over the luxury tax threshold in 2010-11 and 2015-16, but haven't yet done it in 3 consecutive years and paid the stiff tax.  They are above it in 2018.  Maybe they'll go above it in 2019 and dump in 2020, but if 2019 starts off poorly for them, they might very well reset.  

The Yankees, of course, have no such issues.  They have plenty of room to sign up Judge and Sanchez for a few extra years and still come in under the threshold or not (they are the Yankees after all).  To beat them in 2019 would require great debuts.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#361599) #
Thanks for the Counsell link, hypobole.  He sounds like he would fit in well with Shapiro in terms of philosophy. 
uglyone - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#361601) #
I still say that if we're not extending guys like stroman, then we might as well just pack it in as a franchise.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#361602) #
"I'm getting a kick out of Borucki ang Gaviglio this year."

Absolutely,as are most fans - and if we had gotten for example Soto & Flaherty last year, I would be getting a kick out of watching them also especially knowing the Jays has 6 more years of control and the rebuilding is going great - hopefully, next year we can get excited about maybe Sixto Sanchez/Luiz Gohara/Ian Anderson - maybe teaming up with Pearson by 2020 along with those exciting positional prospects.
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#361603) #
Houston and the Yankees are the only real potential 'dynasties', as Mike notes, too many bad contracts on the Sox.  With their resources, a reset might not take long, but then again, ours might not take long either, we have a ridiculous wave of position player prospects that should start arriving by the end of this season, and given the depth at different levels, looks to be sustainable past the first batch or two of graduations. 

We could easily jettison the vets, play the kids and be a much better team by the end of this year. 

How does money absorbed in trades affect the luxury tax?  For example, if Morales stays hot and we find a taker who, say, pays the rest of this season and we pay all of next, who's obligation is that next year re: the luxury tax?   With exactly two AL 1B and four DHs above 1 fWAR, that sort of deal should be possible as a pure salary dump.  At this point, the FO might actually believe that the Morales they hoped they had signed is arriving - he's never been better than he is now in the blue and white, and he's been performing at a high level for over a month now.  They may prefer to keep him this year to see if he has turned a corner, rather than absorb tons of money in a salary dump. 

Smoak has been a lot better recently, but even with his hot streak, he still is at 1 fWAR, he's slower than I am and the metrics don't love his D.  Fangraphs has his value at $8.2 this year, so he's clearly good value - but I could still see his option not getting picked up.  Look at TB DFAing Corey Dickerson earlier this year, who was worth $20.6 million per Fangraphs in 2017.

This type of player's value has cratered, with the likes of Jesus Aguilar available for free.  If the Jays can move him for something at the deadline, they absolutely should.  And Oh, with his option, is likely at a high in trade value right now and worth a legit return - more than Joe Smith most likely. 
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#361604) #
Itís true that the Jays will need to find ways to add or secure pitching in the coming years, but it seems risky to give a lengthy extension to a pitcher who was just sidelined with shoulder issues, and given the lack of data on how well power pitchers of small stature tend to hold up over time. I would see whether he can produce a 180+ inning season next year before offering an extension, and look to balance the risk of a couple of guaranteed extension years with a couple of club option years.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#361605) #
If the Yankees want to do a multiplayer upgrade at the deadline, they could do a swap of prospects for Happ, Smoak, and a reliever (Oh?).
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#361606) #
Stroman is the only young player on the team worthy of an extension, but the team has to decide what they want to do with him by this time next year. If he does not want to do an extension, then the team has to consider a trade because his value diminishes the closer he is to free agency. The Jays can't afford another Donaldson situation where they lose a star for a comp pick, especially as they get closer to Vlad's arrival.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#361607) #
Ugly, I think a Stroman extension would be hard because he will be coming off a tough season and he is a guy who seems likely to bet on himself rather than sign anywhere near market value. I'm not worried about how he plays, but his health moving forward being a sinkerball pitcher already showing shoulder issues.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#361608) #
"and if we had gotten for example Soto & Flaherty last year, I would be getting a kick out of watching them "

only if you were streaming minor league games.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#361609) #
There is no reason to think the Jays couldnít have a better run differential next year than all the AL teams currently vying for the second WC spot.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#361611) #
Stroman's a risk, but for me the shoulder issue looks worse than it was from trying to come back too soon to try to make the start of the season. As long as he's fully recovered medically, I wouldn't try to discount him too much beyond what signing him now might allow.

I just don't know what his extension comps would be in terms of service time, age and performance. He'll currently be a FA after his age 29 season. How many more years would both sides be willing to do? A 5 year? That would put him at 32 when it expires. Then, the value they'd place on his FA years would largely dictate the overall price. And then there's always the question of options... pulling stuff out of the land of fairies and unicorns and other make-believe things, maybe 5y/$85M?
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#361613) #
I would think Danny Duffy's 5 year 65 million dollar deal stands as a great comp for Stroman. Duffy was a year closer to free agency when he signed his deal, so this would be fair for Stroman I would think.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#361614) #
I don't know what a reasonable contract for Stroman would look like.  I don't agree though that it would be a disaster to lose him for a comp pick as he is entering free agency.  With luck, the club will be in good shape in 2020-21 and Stroman will be a good pitcher (and they are in need of those).  They shouldn't trade a player to "maximize value" (and it is not clear to me that Stroman will have that much value) in the face of current need while in a competitive period.  We are getting ahead of ourselves here though. 
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#361615) #
I forgot about the Duffy extension. That actually does make some sense, though he didn't have the track record (and was under Stroman's rates for his first 2 years of arbitration, accordingly). The ages are on-par, though. It's an interesting one. Porcello was the closest I could think of (though I didn't really had a chance to ponder too much), and that deal was signed in spring training in his walk year.

Speaking of, if KC is a little down on the Duffy deal and wanted to save some money, I'd definitely give them a ring if I were the Jays.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#361616) #
only if you were streaming minor league games.

Soto yeah, Flaherty, no.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#361617) #
I agree, Spifficus.  Duffy would be a nice acquisition.  The club needs pitchers for the next few years anyways. 
uglyone - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#361618) #
"Soto yeah, Flaherty, no."

eh, don't he so sure - Flaherty would be the youngest jay, and the youngest Bison, without the most impressive AAA performance OR stuff.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#361619) #
Worse stuff than Gaviglio?
uglyone - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#361620) #
SRF has better stuff than gaviglio
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#361621) #
It might be a shorter list to come up with major league pitchers who do have worse stuff than Gaviglio.
My first name for the list? Bartolo Colon. He has worse stuff than Gaviglio.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#361622) #
You know what? I just looked up their FB velo for the last month, and now I'm less confident in that statement...
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#361623) #
Ok, Gaviglio gets swings and misses on his slider, so I'm back to thinking his stuff's better... But Big Sexy (how did I forget this was his nickname?!) has a decent changeup... This is closer than it should be.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#361624) #
Nonetheless, Gaviglio has been pretty effective, with xFIP and ERA both in the 3.8-3.9 range.  He's thrown 52 innings this year- 21.2 against the Yankees and Red Sox, with other outings against the Angels, Tigers, A's, Phillies, Rays and Nationals.  He goes tonight against the Braves.  He hasn't faced the Orioles, Royals, Twins, White Sox, Mets or Marlins. 

Obviously, you would prefer if he could average 6 innings a start.  The only sub-.500 club (and one with a poor offence) was the Tigers.  He threw 7 pretty good innings against them. 

And incidentally, swinging strike rate is probably a good marker for stuff- with the slider being the big one for Gavigio.  Gaviglio's 9.5% this year isn't outstanding, but higher than that of David Price, Dallas Keuchel, Rick Porcello, and Jon Lester and just behind Gio Gonzalez, Matt Boyd and J.A. Happ.  Gaviglio gets them with the sliders outside the zone, and he's got a very high rate of offering and missing on those. 
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#361625) #
Just for fun I looked up Danny Duffy's career to the point when he signed his extension at age 27:

106 GS
623.0 IP
7.80 K/9
3.34 BB/9
3.71 ERA
4.10 FIP

Marcus Stroman through career to date:

100 GS
623.2 IP
7.32 K/9
2.53 BB/9
3.84 ERA
3.64 FIP

I didn't think the two comparisons would be this close. You trade a tommy john for an ACL and they both even missed a year due to injury.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#361626) #
Wonder what the Astros would want for Ken Giles - if he stays in the minors for a bit, he'd be controllable for 3 more years.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#361627) #
eh....not that close...

Stroman: 100gs, 89era-, 86fip-, 82xfip-, 3.5war32
Duffy: 149gs, 94era-, 104fip-, 109xfip, 2.5war32


And I case you think fips don't matter...since then....

Duffy: 43gs, 100era-, 100fip-, 109xfip-, 2.6wzr32
hypobole - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#361628) #
Unless a reliever is elite, years of control are pretty well meaningless.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#361629) #
Gaviglio is Gustavo chacin. He's getting by on smoke and mirrors and you should ride it as long as you can but be fully prepared to move on.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#361630) #
Gaviglio is Gustavo Chacin And has an even better name for a cologne. Better hurry though!
PeterG - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#361632) #
I think Gaviglio would be a very good 3 or 4 inning guy in the pen but his shelf life as a starter may be a short one. He has earned a longer look however.
PeterG - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#361634) #
Well that was an ill timed post.
CeeBee - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#361635) #
Defence didn't help him much either
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, July 11 2018 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#361636) #
Uglyone I only used stats prior to when Duffy signed his extension, which was also his age 27 year...
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, July 12 2018 @ 06:24 AM EDT (#361642) #
It seems the Yankees aren't even offering Justus Sheffield for many Machado, so we can forget about seeing him in a Jays uniform as a result of a J.A. Happ trade.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 12 2018 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#361644) #
Yanks stopped bidding against themselves years ago. The days of getting a no doubt prospect from them are over.
mathesond - Thursday, July 12 2018 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#361647) #
No doubt prospects like Marty Janzen?
bpoz - Thursday, July 12 2018 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#361648) #
2 no doubt prospects that had only limited success were Travis Snider and Brett Lawrie. We have some great position prospects in the no doubt category. Most likely a couple will break our hearts.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 12 2018 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#361649) #
Jay Jaffe has an interesting article on Yadier Molina's Hall of Fame case.  It's a tough one and relies quite a bit on framing and leading a team into the post-season.  When you take that into consideration, Russell Martin looks better than you would expect too. 
bpoz - Thursday, July 12 2018 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#361650) #
I personally think that St Louis would be more average in their results without Y Molina. The catching position has great value. All that defensive stuff.

Jeff Mathis vs M Napoli LAA.
Magpie - Thursday, July 12 2018 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#361658) #
Yadier's kind of the modern Bill Freehan, probably not quite as good. A helluva player, at any rate.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 12 2018 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#361659) #
Jaffe's JAWS metric has 5 modern day catchers in the same general area of value and of the same general type (with a lot of their value defensive): Russell Martin, Yadier Molina, Lance Parrish, Jim Sundberg (!), and Bill Freehan.  Freehan was better than the other 4 according to the metric, but he many not have lifted his pitchers in the way that Martin and Molina have.
jerjapan - Saturday, July 14 2018 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#361765) #
Mike Green, I would have thought Molina was a slam-dunk HOFer.  I've never been a Hall of Fame follower, so I'm a bit surprised to hear he's on the bubble  ... Molina is the best catcher of the past decade, Buster Posey aside, in my mind.... what am I missing?
Blue Jays @ Atlanta - July 10-11 | 63 comments | Create New Account
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