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The Jays are in a Seattle for a road and home series. All the talk in the media will be about the Canadians invading from the north.

The Jays have a new player, one Mike Hauschild who was in the Astros system until recently. Per Gibby Hauschild is a starter but the Jays didn't want to put him right in there so Clippard will start and then Hauschild will come in.

Ken Giles was added today and Dwight Smith and Darnell Sweeney were sent back to Buffalo. That leaves the Jays with a two man bench but Gibby says Pillar will be activated in the next few days.

Here is your weekend schedule:

Thursday, 10pm, Clippard vs. King Felix

Friday, 10pm, Borucki vs. Marco Gonzales

Saturday, 10pm, Estrada vs. James Paxton

Sunday, 4pm, Gaviglio vs. Mike Leake

What other surprises will the Jays have for us?

Jays at Mariners - August 2 -5 | 163 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Thursday, August 02 2018 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#363138) #
If they lose all four games, they could go from 11th draft pick to 6th.

Or close.

hypobole - Thursday, August 02 2018 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#363139) #
I don't think Seattle will lose all 4 games.
scottt - Thursday, August 02 2018 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#363143) #
Pearce crushing the Yankees.

They really needed Happ and he got taken down by those New York germs.

Gerry - Thursday, August 02 2018 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#363146) #
Apparently when Gibby was interviewed before the game he couldn't remember Hauschild's name. Its not an easy name to recall.
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#363151) #
New guy our new Starter yet?
hypobole - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 01:25 AM EDT (#363152) #
Yeah, Hauschild deserves another start.

Had the full Morales in 2 PA's. Crushes a bomb to put us ahead and then hits into the slowest developing DP imaginable.
bpoz - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#363155) #
Hauschild was released July 30 by Houston and signed by the Jays as a FA. D Sweeney DFA'd to make room.
scottt - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#363157) #
Hauschild was rule V picked by Texas 2 years ago. (That's after Toronto eliminated  them  with a pen featuring Biagini.)
They used him for mop up duty in April of last year. He allowed 10 earned runs in 8 innings and was returned to Houston.

At age 25-26 he had ERAs of 3.38-3.09 in Houston's AAA club.
Not so good since returning to Houston.

bpoz - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#363158) #
Houston and the Jays are good trading partners. We know that Houston is good and currently in a window of contending.

So how would they fare if in the AL East? Quite well I would think for 2017 and 2018.

I am now looking at Houston as a model of some kind for the Jays. I know that they got all those top draft picks and the Jays did not. But our farm is good now because of AA and the current FO's contributions.

Looks this FO did great in the 2017 Int'l signing period based on results as of today. I hope the 2018 Int'l crop is as good. I really wish they would trade for more Int'l budget.
rpriske - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#363162) #

When can we finally admit that Pompey is a failed prospect?

ComebyDeanChance - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#363168) #
Hands up those who thought by August 2 the team leader in batting average with at least 200 PA's would be .....Kendrys Morales.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#363171) #
And speaking of lacking any originality, Robyn Urback criticized Toronto on Twitter for doing a bandwagon, copy-cat of Vancouver's use of Seth Rogen to announce transit stops. According to Urback, Jerry Howarth had to be the choice of the voice. I agree with her, and it seems totally Toronto.
rpriske - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#363173) #
Rogen offered to do it in Ottawa but was turned down.

On topic, so it seems the Jays have a new member of the rotation... at least for now.

Hauschild for 2019 Cy Young!

Seriously though, it would be kind of wild if the 2019 opening day rotation was something like Stroman, Sanchez, Gaviglio, Borucki, Hauschild

Who would have predicted THAT a year earlier....

greenfrog - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#363174) #
Morales has turned his season around nicely. If in fact he has been a helpful influence on the Cuban players, that fact plus his slightly above-average hitting (0.4 WAR with defense and baserunning factored in) probably makes him a net contributor to the team. He’s far from an ideal DH, but he’s hardly the emblem of front-office failure that his critics want/need him to be.
hypobole - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#363177) #
People love to comment on things they know little about. No one asked Rogen to do this. He offered to do this free throughout the country.

AFAIK, Howarth did not offer to do it.
85bluejay - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#363179) #
Well I much prefer Seth Rogen doing the transit stops to Jerry Howarth - Score one for "Lacking any originality" Toronto.
bpoz - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#363180) #
An ok rotation rpriske. Some sort of youth movement. The whole 25 man roster could have all been born in the 90s but about 7.
Dewey - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#363181) #
Yeah, actually, Jerry secretly auditioned; but the TTC had to turn him down as his lengthy reminiscences and anecdotes would have caused far too many train delays and missed stops for passengers.
hypobole - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#363182) #
Rogen offered to do it in Ottawa but was turned down.

Because Ottawa is already paying somebody to do it.
John Northey - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#363183) #
I admit, I wanted to dump Morales badly as he just was using roster space and taking PA away from better players it seemed.  Now he is tearing the cover off. 
April: 160/259/240
May: 233/291/411
June: 277/326/482
July: 338/459/574

Yeah, I'd say he heated up a bit.  April/May he was hurting the team big time, but June he was acceptable, and July he has been a star.  Hard to believe April and July are both the same player in the same season.
Michael - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#363185) #
Anyone know if he wears contacts now or corrected a prescription or something. There was speculation that Morales decline was partially vision related. Is his resurgence expected obtainable by a correction there?
lexomatic - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#363186) #
The question is, did Morales get really unlucky, or did he figure something out. His April is something you just can't have for a DH. I hope he can avoid a month like that next year, might be tradeable  (I mean he's probably just as tradeable now if there's a fit, I just don't think there is one).
Career-wise June/ July have been his weakest months, along with March/April.
The rest of his season since May 171 GP 266 PA 234 AB 65 H 13 2B 12 HR 28 R 30 RBI 28 BB 51 SO 278/353/487 (841 OPS)
The prorated totals to 162 GP149 H 534 AB 30 2B 28 HR 64 R 69 RBI 64 BB 117 SO 
only a .305 BABIP so not crazy unsustainable from that limited info.
Checking statscast is funHis exit velocity is up 91.1>92.8 (top 4%) launch angle up 9.4>10.9 expected avg .302 expected slg .591 (top 5%) actual woba .332 expected woba .410 hard hit 55.4% (top 1%)  so stuff looks sustainable, but he was always a statscast guy, like Smoak.
His launch angle still looks to be too low (basically league average) but if it's working...
Maybe he's adjusted to the vision changes?

As for Pompey? I don't think he's ever really had a fair chance -62 pitches since 2015 (2016>) and 160 PA since 2014 at the ML level. He hasn't helped himself by not being super hot when he got his first opportunity, and getting hurt, but he also hasn't been given the chance to adjust, and has been jerked around, and supplanted by players who don't have his skills (when the team claims to want more of those skills), or the shiny newness. He should totally be playing now to make an informed decision for next season. I totally feel for the guy. I fully expect he'll do well with a change of scenery or be an injury washout. I don't consider him a failed prospect. I consider his development a failure - with responsibility shared by the team.
lexomatic - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#363187) #
So I thought I remember seeing Morales got surgery,
but I found a few links about new glasses“I see the ball way better but it’s still an adjustment because even when it was sunny outside I didn’t hit with sunglasses,” says Morales. “So it’s just an adjustment. But I see the ball way better now.”
diagnosed when he played in Kansas City a couple of years ago but apparently he didn’t think much of it at the time. In spring training this year, the Cuban-born slugger wore contact lenses after having his eyes checked out again. And while the contacts helped with the vision in his right eye, they also didn’t feel comfortable. And so from now on, Morales will be sporting prescription eye glasses when he plays,
Then there's this about how he started hitting when he dropped the glasses. I haven't been paying attention when watching so.

Morales turned 35 last month, and he’s now in his 12th major-league season. Why would his timing suddenly disappear then re-appear?

“He got rid of his glasses,” manager John Gibbons said recently. “The glasses were screwing him up. (Now) he’s seeing three balls and trying to hit the one in the middle.”

Gibbons delivered that last line with a grin, and it could have been mistaken for a joke. The evidence sure supports that theory, though. Compare the launch angle and batted ball charts for Morales before and after May 17, the last day he wore glasses in a game.

The contrast is clear: Morales has been hitting the ball in the air more since he stopped wearing glasses. It seems counter-intuitive — why would seeing better make you hit worse? But, perhaps that undersells the adjustment involved in abruptly changing something fundamental to hitting such as vision.
So I guess he ditched the glasses and is hitting the ball in the air more?
scottt - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#363193) #
There are many different types of contact lenses.
I'd wager that Morales went back to contacts.
Lasik is pretty cheap now. You'd think he would have tried that in the offseason, no?

John Northey - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#363195) #
Lasik isn't a cure all.  I know one pro golfer who had won a PGA tournament then got it to help him a year or so later and he never contended again as his eyes were so screwed up.  Took multiple tries to get it fully fixed.  My dad used to golf with him (same club years ago) so thats how I knew.
scottt - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#363199) #
Still, I really doubt Morales is hitting those 95 mph fastballs without his prescription fixed somehow.
Part of the issue was not seeing the spin one the ball and being able to identify the pitch type.
Just swinging at the middle of a large white mass wouldn't help with that.

rpriske - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#363201) #
Oliver Drake was claimed by the Twins. Five organizations in one season. Breaking a record, apparently.
hypobole - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#363202) #
Yeah scottt is right. Gotta be able to pick up spin.
scottt - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#363204) #
There's a good chance that the Twins will flip him once someone better is put on waiver.
The Drake record sounds like a vinyl, no?

Spifficus - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#363208) #
Speaking of the waiver wire and things tangentially related, Zach McAllister was DFA'd by the Indians. If he ends up getting released (or opts out of getting assigned), I'd see if he wants to sign a reasonable 2 year deal if I were the Jays. His stuff doesn't seem to have diminished, so he looks like a solid bounce-back candidate.
vw_fan17 - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#363209) #
Any thoughts about the Jays taking a flyer on Greg Holland (just released) or Zach McCallister (just DFAed)?
Magpie - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#363211) #
He’s far from an ideal DH

True, but he's been at least good as Encarnacion. As much as we've moaned about the Morales contract, looking at another two years and $40 million for EE (the deal he turned down) is one of those there-but-for-the-grace moments, surely.
greenfrog - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#363213) #
I agree, Magpie. I've been saying the same thing lately. EE would have been significantly more valuable to the Jays in 2017 had the team remained competitive. But now that we're squarely in the rebuilding phase, I would much rather have Morales and his $11m annual salary this year and next year, as opposed to Encarnacion's $17m salary this year and his $20m salary next year plus the $5m buyout of his 2020 season (I think it's safe to say that the club option for his 2020 season won't be exercised).
Gerry - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#363217) #
Pillar back in the lineup tonight, Cumpton has been removed.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#363219) #
I saw that earlier and thought that seemed quick for Pillar. I will imagine that we will be seeing a lot of Hernandez, Pillar and Grichuk on the grass to finish off the year. I would look to try and extend a team friendly deal to Grichuk in the offseason buying out a few free agent years.
cybercavalier - Friday, August 03 2018 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#363221) #
Greg Holland, Zach McCallister, Cumpton Sweeney, Chris Rowley
Texas Ranger claimed Rowley off the Jays' waiver. Now Cumpton and Sweeney are optioned, shall the Jays send Cumpton for McCallister?
hypobole - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#363223) #
"I would be surprised if Ramirez clears waivers."

John Northey - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#363224) #
EE would've been nice to have but at $20 mil per was pretty expensive.  His WAR the past 4 years... 4.5, 3.8, (moves to Cleveland) 2.8, 0.8 (2 months to go).  Postseason was 0-7 with a walk and a HBP for Cleveland.

Yeah, I think the Jays got lucky there.  FYI: Bautista is at 0.7 WAR for this year (1.0 for the Mets, -0.3 for Atlanta). 

Long term deals for guys in the 30's is a mistake.  Donaldson being hurt this year helped save the Jays from doing it with him (as does having Vlad pounding on the door).  I admit to being one of those pushing for deals for these old guys sometimes but luckily I am not in charge of a ML team.  As a fan it is so easy to get caught up in it but teams need to be smarter than us on that.
Glevin - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 02:55 AM EDT (#363225) #
"but he also hasn't been given the chance to adjust, and has been jerked around, and supplanted by players who don't have his skills"

I don't get this at all. How was Pompey been jerked around? In 2015, he was given a shot to start but had a 64 WRC+ and so was rightly sent down. He was 2 for his last 29 and striking out about 1/3 of the time. This was a team that was competing for the playoffs and Pompey was awful. When Pompey came back up in September he played decently and gave the Jays real value as a pinch runner. In 2016, Michael Saunders beat Pompey out for the job as 4th OFer and gave the Jays 1.5 WAR. Pompey had a WRC+ of 106 in AAA and was hurt for much of the year. Again, the Jays were in the playoffs and Pompey wasn't good enough and didn't deserve to be up. In 2017, Pompey missed the entire year due to injuries. In 2018, he's only had 138 PAs in AAA due to injuries. You can argue that maybe he deserves a shot over Smith Jr. but Smith Jr. was healthy when the Jays needed someone and has hit well in the majors. Should they send him down so Pompey can come up? I think Pompey has major league skills (4th OFer kind) but in the end, as a prospect, you need to play well. Pompey hasn't stayed healthy or played particularly well in AAA or the majors. If he stays healthy and plays well in AAA, he will get a chance. It's not on the team to force playing time. It's on him and he hasn't.
ayjackson - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#363226) #
I agree that the Jays haven't had the opportunity to give Pompey in 2016 and 2017 due to injuries. What's stopped them in 2018 though?
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#363227) #
When Pillar was injured Pompey was again injured.... when Pompey came back from injury he got in an incident with his manager.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#363229) #
I agree that Pompey really hasn't gotten a shot since the first month of 2015. A lot of that his him being injured, but he just hasn't been able to get an opportunity. Even earlier this year, he came up for a couple of games, there was that AB where Gibbons had him bunting and he struck out, then was promptly sent down again.
bpoz - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#363230) #
Borucki is doing very well. He gave the pen the night off. Pitched 8 innings.

I suppose the FO was wise not to rush him to the Majors.
bpoz - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#363231) #
Are parts of our young lineup that are getting regular ML ABs good enough to compete soon. I am just looking at the positives.

Excellent power from Grichuk, T Hernandez, Gurriel. All capable of 25 Hr.
scottt - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#363234) #
Nice to see Borucki finally get a win. It's great that the crowd was behind him.
scottt - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#363241) #
At first glance, Ramirez did OK with Oakland, 2 runs allowed in 6 innings.
Just 2 Ks and 4 BBs though, which is very different from what he did last year.

christaylor - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#363242) #
Given the speculation around Morales I'll just spitball about two possible conditions.

1. If he is an anisometropic amblyope -- in short, some whose optical power of the two eye differs during development. Growing up in Cuba it is entirely possible that this condition was missed and he was never offered patching therapy. Patching therapy covers the better eye and the refractive error of the two eyes can recover and acuity restored. The issue is that amblyopia is a condition that also changes the visual pathway as well (reduced or little binocular vision) and optical correction alone can improve vision, but because of the abnormal visual development it is not very effective. If he is an amblyope, what is astounding is that he has been able to hit so well at so high a level. A former OD student I worked with was a draft and follow in the A's organization and was also able to hit at a high level until in his words, he, "face pitchers who could command their breaking stuff". Morales' amblyopia may be mild but enough to affect stereo-acuity and as he ages the other aspects of his visual-motor processing (i.e., reaction time, non-stereo position estimation) may be declining just enough to impact his performance. Hence, the attempt to intervene with optical correction, but the rub is that he's played without correction.

2. He has developed or has played with uncorrected astigmatism. Astigmatism presents as not being able to see a given orientation clearly. The criteria for how much astigmatism to correct varies from country to country, again, he's played all his life with it and only when he struggled was he convinced to play with correction. Asitgmatism is more difficult to correct with contacts than glasses. To throw another log on the fire, his astigmatism could have worsened recently.

At any rate, without knowing anything but the media reports, I doubt that his vision issues are straightforward.

Lastly, as for Lasik, I would never do it. The simple reason is that there is no small chance that it can increase and worsen what are known as higher-order aberrations of the eye (which are imperfections in the optics that are more difficult to correct). Many "Lasik failures" (e.g., sensitivity to glare) are probably caused by Lasik that has worsened higher order aberrations.

A Saturday morning ramble that I've meant to type out before when Morales' vision has cropped up as a topic before. FWIW I have a PhD in visual neuroscience and teach at an optometry college...
scottt - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#363245) #
 I'm not sure about optometrists specifically, but Cuba has good doctors.
They are just poor doctors.

Kendrys was the ace pitcher and clean up hitter of the Cuban national team.
He was the first teenager to make the team in nearly 2 decades.
He's considered the best rookie in the history of Cuban baseball.
He joined the team in 2002 and the won the  Baseball World Cub in 2003.

He was banned from baseball in 2004 for having planned to leave Cuba.
He moved to the US on a raft. His eighth attempt.
He spent a year on the Dominican Republic to become a free agent and was with the Angels by 2006.
He would definitively had had access to the best health care for that point.

He finished second in MVP vote in 2009.
The vision troubles must have come later in life.

Chuck - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#363246) #
Borucki remains gopher-free as a major leaguer.

Aaron Loup, the noted plunker of LH batters, has faced just one batter as a Phillie. It was a lefty and he plunked him.

Dr. Zarco - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#363251) #
Ha, I’m certainly not surprised, Chuck. I never thought he was any good, mostly because he didn’t seem to know where his ball was going. It was always frustrating watching him plunk people in crucial situations. Speaking of Loup, where did one of his biggest defenders, uglyone, go? Did I miss something?
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#363252) #
He was traded with Loup as the commentator-to-be-named-later.
grjas - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#363253) #
Thx Scottt. Didn’t know Morales history and that’s quite fascinating. Small wonder he doesn’t let a poor month or two get him down, and a pity so many fans are constantly down on him.
Chuck - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#363257) #
Such was the magnitude of Solarte's July swoon that he now finds himself with a negative WAR and in the same 85-95 OPS+ company as Travis, Diaz, Pillar and the resurgent Martin.

Martin, with an OPS+ of 90, now finds himself in familiar personal territory, on the heels of seasons of 96 and 94. So while he continues his long decline, he's not dead yet.

If the organization really does think that Drury could turn into something (I don't necessarily share this optimism), Solarte no longer needs to be seen as an obstacle.

The large swath of the roster that finds itself very near to 0 WAR speaks to the blandness of the team. Mayonnaise on white bread, these Jays.

Paul D - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#363258) #
Urshela to the Yankees for cash.
christaylor - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#363260) #
Sorry if this wasn't clear -- if he wasn't patched early in life (he was born in a tiny town, Fomento). There's little point after childhood, no question a physician at a youth baseball clinic could have noticed amblyopic vision issues with Kendrys. There would be nothing they could do. This isn't an indictment of Cuba -- children who could benefit from patching get missed in Canada and the US not infrequently.
scottt - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#363262) #
Cash consideration.
scottt - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#363263) #
Yankees without Judge aren't hitting so well. 8.5 games back of Boston now.
Parker - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#363267) #
I was listening to the Indians - Angels broadcast on my drive home last night, and their commentary team brought up an interesting stat: Encarnacion is the only player in MLB to have hit at least 30 HR every season for the last six. And he's practically a lock to make it seven in a row this year.

I thought that was an interesting little triva tidbit. Of course, my enjoyment of it was immediately ruined by their follow-up gushing over his RBI totals and subsequent talk of the importance of "run production" and etc. etc. old-timey baseball blather.

I'm glad the Jays didn't commit $80M to Edwin, but (especially) in a non-contending season, I can still be happy about that statistical niche he's carved out for himself.
dan gordon - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#363269) #
Estrada doing his best to increase his market value, working on a no-hitter in the 6th inning. A couple of games like this and teams are going to be interested in a trade.
hypobole - Saturday, August 04 2018 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#363270) #
"I don't think Seattle will lose all 4 games."

Hey, hypobole, hope you didn't bet actual money on this bold prediction.
hypobole - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#363271) #
Rough start to Axford's Dodgers career, giving up 6 runs. He did get one out, though.
dan gordon - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#363273) #
Not many have noticed, but after slow starts for Travis (probably injury related) and Aledmys Diaz, both middle infielders have really been hitting very well. Travis' line since May 23 - .291/.333/.468/.801 and Diaz's since May 3 - .288/.315/.503/.814. That's counting tonight's game. Both of them with an OPS over .800 - that's great for your middle infield. I'd really like to see the Jays stick with these 2 guys at SS and 2B, and put Gurriel in the OF when he's back.

Oh, and Grichuk is slashing .284/.340/.553/.893 since April 29.
Spifficus - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 04:00 AM EDT (#363274) #
Just as interesting has been Grichuk's K rate. Overall, he's at 23.8%. Since he returned from the DL, it's been 21%. From the All-Star break? 16%. With his defense and his power, if he can hold even the overall K rate next year, he's looking like an above average RF or CF (I'm assuming that he's not going to have another .254 BABIP - about 50 points lower than his career average). Now, if they can just find one more young above average OF (preferably with strong OBP - a particular weakness for this team until Vlad, Jansen, and probably Bo, get acclimated).
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 04:14 AM EDT (#363275) #
Two points about Randal Grichuk that everyone might have missed.
1) This is his first full Season in the A.L East and verses A.L. Pitching. Progressing quite well I believe.
2) When he plays consistently he hits better. Now that he’s a full time Regular, his comfort level is greatly approved. Where his confidence now takes him will be interesting to follow.

On another note, when was the last time the Jays won three-in-a-row? During a hot streak wasn’t it?
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 06:28 AM EDT (#363277) #
Grichuck's actual performance is starting o catch up to his expected performance. His xBA is 0.250 and his xSLG is 0.516 which seems about right and he is closing in on that.

Even if you add in the slump to start the year Grichuk is at least an average hitting right fielder as his xWOBA is 18th, just ahead of Norma Mazarar and just below Puig. His average hitting and top shelf defense in right looks like a guy who over a full healthy season could be ranked as a top 10 player at his position.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#363281) #
Agreed Spifficus. Grichuk's strikeout rate has always been high and one of the things holding him back...if he can settle in around 20-22% K rate he should be pretty valuable.
hypobole - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#363282) #
Actually I was looking at something similar, dan. Brought up FG WAR leaderboard at the end of April to compare with what they've done since.

April WAR/ WAR Since

Pillar +1.2/ 0.0
Teoscar +0.7/ -0.1
Grandy +0.6/ -0.3
Maile +0.5/ +0.5
Solarte +0.5/ -0.9
Smoak +0.2/ +1.0
Martin 0.0/ +0.7
Gurriel 0.0/ +0.8
Diaz -0.1/ +1.2
Morales -0.5/ +0.8
Grichuk -0.5/ +1.7
Travis -0.5/ +0.5

Since the end of April, Grichuk has been terrific, especially considering he missed a month and Diaz has been really good around his injury. Gurriel had a nice hot streak until he got hurt. Smoak, Martin and Morales have been OK. Travis, meh, but trending positive. Maille hasn't hit well since April, just enough to not kill his plus defence.

On the negative side, Pillar and Teoscar have been replacement level. Grandy pretty bad, and Solarte has fallen off a cliff.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#363284) #
Teoscar has been a poor to awful fielder this entire year, but I still his potential with the bat is huge.

He has the tools defensively, but if he does have to move to DH in a few years at least he will be a typical un-athletic DH clogging up the base baths.
hypobole - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#363285) #
"but if he does have to move to DH in a few years at least he will be a typical un-athletic DH clogging up the base baths."

I don't think this is what you meant to say.
hypobole - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#363286) #
Teoscar has 7 triples this season. Who was the last Blue Jays player to hit that many in a season? (Actually 2 correct answers).
John Northey - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#363287) #
Seems the Jays of the future (2019/2020) are slowly getting together... Gotta be in AA/AAA at least to count
CA: Jansen (AAA), Luke Maile
1B: Biggio maybe... Tellez is up to a 765 OPS after a slow start (325/363/542 since July 1st)
SS: Aledmys Diaz until Bo is ready
LF: Gurriel Jr. maybe? gotta pick a position
CF:Randal Grichuk (once Pillar is traded)
RF: Alford maybe?
DH: Teoscar Hernandez

Note: Pompey has the 2nd highest OPS in the Jays system for outfielders (296/383/467) who'd have thunk?  He would be great as a 4th OF.  Best is a rookie baller Cal Stevenson (348/500/492 21 in rookie ball - needs to be moved up badly)

The future is looking bright.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#363288) #
If McCullers is sidelined for a while, the Astros might be an interested buyer for Estrada.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#363291) #
I meant to say Teoscar would be one or the more athletic DH's in the leauge, and at least he could be rotated in the outfield on a ground ball pitcher day.

I am starting to wonder what a Jonathan Davis and Billy McKinney platoon in left field would look like.

bpoz - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#363292) #
There are close to 30 games to be played in Sept for each team. The playoff races are going to be tight until the last weekend of the season.

Estrada has been quite good from June to now except for the 4.1 IP in July due to his injury and possibly being rushed back. His 1 rehab start was shortened for some reason. I assume that he has passed through waivers.

If a team is trying to get into the playoffs 2-3 good starts by Estrada may help. Of course he is ineligible for the playoffs.
ayjackson - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#363294) #
True story: Gerry has a dungeon under his house where he keeps controversial bauxites. Beware.

So in July, we played vets to showcase for the non-waiver trade deadline. In August we'll play the to showcase for waiver trades. In September, Gibby will play them out of respect because they're playing for a livelihood next year.
85bluejay - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#363298) #
I Think the Astros internal options are better than Estrada - Seattle,Oakland,Milwaukee much more likely. I wonder if Seattle is desperate enough to give up Sam Carlson who is recovering from TJ & is a long ways off.
PeterG - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#363301) #
Estrada will be playoff eligible as long as he is traded before September 1.
dan gordon - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#363315) #
That's an interesting look at the WAR numbers since April. Travis had a bad couple of weeks in May - it would be interesting to see his WAR since about the 3rd week of that month.

I haven't given up on Pompey yet, but I have to admit it's looking less and less likely that he ever makes it as a Blue Jay. Still think he has the ability to be a good mlb player if he can stay on the field. I'd love to see what he could do with a fully healthy, 600 plate appearance season.
pooks137 - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#363316) #

Teoscar has 7 triples this season. Who was the last Blue Jays player to hit that many in a season? (Actually 2 correct answers).

I would guess Jose Reyes and Rajai Davis. Did they ever play on the same team? And was Reyes ever healthy enough to pull it off?

pooks137 - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#363317) #

Teoscar has 7 triples this season. Who was the last Blue Jays player to hit that many in a season? (Actually 2 correct answers).

I would guess Jose Reyes and Rajai Davis. Did they ever play on the same team? And was Reyes ever healthy enough to pull it off?

I was wrong on both counts. Reyes topped out at 4 triples with the Jays in 2014 in his second year with the club, but interestingly had 7 triples last year with the Mets, but none this year.

Rajai Davis surprisingly never hit seven triples with the Jays like Teoscar has this year. He topped out at 6 triples in 2011. I guess due to a mixture of lack of power, poor RHP splits and being platooned a lot.

And Rajai and Reyes did play together one year with the Jays in 2013.

hypobole - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#363318) #
Thanks pooks. To borrow a reference from "The Big Short", I was thinking my quizzes were like poetry.

No one responded to my quiz comment the other day when "Chad Mottola was drafted 5th overall" was brought up. In case anyone is interested (or didn't already know), the guy drafted right after Chad Mottola was Derek Jeter.

Anyway 2008 was the last time Jays had 7 triples by a player - one with 7, another with 8.
pooks137 - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#363319) #

Triples are such an interesting oddity. Exponentially declining in the modern game likely due to a combination of cookie cutter modern ballpark design and improved outfield defense.

It seems you need a rare combination of power and above-average running speed to accumulate triples, but the biggest variable is you need outfielders to misplay balls (ill-timed dives and playing balls off the wall poorly) without being credited as an error.

hypobole - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#363320) #
There was talk here of signing Hutch when he became a FA a few days ago. However Texas snapped him up, and he's making his 1st start for the Rangers vs the Orioles.

Not going too well so far - 3.0 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 2 HR.
mathesond - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#363321) #
2008 eh? I'm trying to remember who was on that team. Alex Rios maybe? And Vernon Wells perhaps? Or had he bevome too heavy by then?
mathesond - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#363322) #
Just lloked it up, I was right on one (the player that hit 8), and never would have guessed the other.
Spifficus - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#363323) #
Just looked, myself. Nope. Not in a million years...
DJRob - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#363325) #
...and in just over half the ABs of the guy who had 8. Crazy.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#363327) #
Biagini is not having much success this Season. Control, pitch choice, location all seem to be less than adequate. Is it mental, ability or both being the affecting factor? Or is it the inability to handle disappointment?
PeterG - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#363328) #
Maybe he just isn't that good. He will have to fight for a job next year in ST with a new manager.
hypobole - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#363329) #
Yeah, the other guy in 2008 was Joe Inglett with 7 triples.

His career was 898 PA's, 6 HR's, 19 SB's, but a whopping 17 triples.
hypobole - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#363330) #
As for Rios, it seems fitting for him to be an August trivia answer, seeing he's the most famous you-can-have-him in August waiver claim history.
Parker - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#363333) #
"Maybe he just isn't that good. He will have to fight for a job next year in ST with a new manager."

John Northey - Sunday, August 05 2018 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#363334) #
Not sure if Rios is that, Randy Myers was pretty cool.  He had 28 saves and was put on waivers and San Diego claimed him to stop him from going to a competitor and the Jays said 'take him'.  He pitched in 21 games, 14 1/3 IP for San Diego with an ERA over 6 and they paid around $1 million per inning pitched (he was in year 1 of a 3 year deal, over $13 1/2 million owed for the next 2 years).  I give Ash credit for genius on that one - even a blind squirrel can find a nut (or a worse GM).

Rios on the other hand, had over $50 million left on his contract I think and over 5 seasons had 6.8 WAR for the ChiSox, overpaid but at least was of some value.  They eventually dumped him on Texas for whom he had 1.3 WAR over 2 seasons then over to KC to get -1.1 WAR.  He showed the risk of long term 'cheap' deals for kids who look to be stars in the making.
hypobole - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#363335) #
Still think the Rios claim is more famous, because as you pointed out he had real value, even if the contract was an overpay. Plus he had just turned 29.

But yeah, Myers was the most foolish claim bar none. The Padres GM did it to block Myers going to Atlanta, but why? Myers was almost 36 and had lost his fastball. The kind of washed-up overpaid ex-star you should be more than happy a competitor would acquire.
Glevin - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 05:19 AM EDT (#363337) #
Rumours that the Mets are interested in bringing back Bautista. Makes absolutely no sense so for the Mets is probably true. He had a hot streak after joining the team but is 0 his last 24. Yesterday, he almost single-handedly lost the game for the team. Are the Mets the worst run team in baseball?

Biagini just isn't very good. People want to make it seem like he was Kimbrel and the Jays messed with him but even his good year, he was a middle reliever with a 3.71 XFIP. For a Rule V, he returned great value, but he's a fringe major leaguer.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 06:13 AM EDT (#363338) #
Although it is a moot point now, I was always worried when people suggested making Roberto Osuna a starter. He stated he preferred to remain a closer, excelled at the role and I guess I have a " if it ain't broke, don't fix it " attitude. I know a good starter has more value than a bullpen guy, but it seems moving him back and forth has ruined Biagini.
AWeb - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#363339) #
Biagini had a good 22 starts as a 25 year old in AA before the Jays claimed him, and even then he wasn't missing bats (5.8K/9). Aside from his great start as a MLB reliever (April and May 2016, 21 innings, 0.86 ERA), he's been average at best, and terrible at worst. This year he's not striking out guys enough, or getting enough grounders. The time for him to have a guaranteed job in the majors should be over. He's a prime candidate for the AAA reliever shuttle for a few years to my eyes, assuming he has options? Maybe not if he was a rule V pick, I've forgotten how that works.

Obviously this year's 6.66 K/9 and 6.66 ERA aren't great signs...
Glevin - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#363340) #
"I know a good starter has more value than a bullpen guy, but it seems moving him back and forth has ruined Biagini."

Again, I don't get this reading. If a guy gets moved back and forth and gets hurt maybe you can blame the team for trying to stretch out an arm that couldn't take it (maybe) but performance is up to the player. How does trying to be a starter for a year, make Biagini not pitch well in relief? He tried being a starter and now he forgot how to pitch an inning at a time? It doesn't make any sense. The truth is, Biagini just isn't very good. He's better than his ERA this year but he's a so-so middle reliever.
GabrielSyme - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#363341) #
With respect to Grichuk's improved K%, overall his contact rate and plate discipline numbers look pretty similar to his career overall - but they have significantly improved since coming back at the beginning of June: his swK% is down from 15.7% to 13.7% and his contact rate is up from 67.6% to 72.8%.

It's definitely hopeful, but I don't think it's a profound enough shift to draw firm conclusions yet.
CeeBee - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#363342) #
I'm not sure Biagini deserves a 49 man spot this winter.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#363343) #
Glevin, this is just my perception, but I think being a starter and a reliever are entirely different roles. As a starter, a pitcher sees batters multiple times if he's successful. The second and third time he sees the batter, unless he has particularly nasty stuff, he has to do something different to be successful because if you're a major league hitter you're probably pretty good.

Maybe the first at-bat the starter didn't show his third or fourth pitch, like a slider and he can now use that. Maybe he'll throw a change-up to start off because the last at-bat he blew a fastball by the batter on the first pitch. It's a cat-and-mouse game orchestrated by the starter and catcher, or sometimes just the catcher with the pitcher following along.

A relief pitcher, on the other hand, is typically just pitching an inning or even to just one batter. He can use his full arsenal of pitches right away, and if he is a power pitcher he can just throw as hard as he can without worrying about tiring out after a few innings.Also, while the batter may have faced him at some point in his career, he may not have seen this relief pitcher in the series they are playing and may not be familiar with his pitches.

Sorry for the long post and these are just my ideas so people may correct me. I really do believe that starting and relieving are two different roles and a lot of pitchers are cut out to do either one or the other. Maybe Biagini just isn't that good, or maybe he just isn't suited to be a starter and lost his confidence doing the one thing he was good at,relieving.
bpoz - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#363344) #
Biagini only pitched 4 games as a starter in AAA this year. I thought it was more. 21.2 IP. In the Majors he has not been good this year. As a full time ML reliever he also was not good enough. Maybe the up and down SSS as a starter was hard for him to adjust to.

He has 2 options left I believe. His future is uncertain with the Jays going forward. We currently have a full 40 man roster. 3 are on the 60 day DL. Donaldson is one of them.
The FO is faced with making decisions regarding the 40 man list for Sept callups. They may add someone not on the list like SRF. SRF has to be considered as a 2019 rotation possibility right out of ST. So IMO he needs a ML trial.

The FO will figure it out. Biagini will still be on the 40 man next year IMO. He will face competition, but his ML experience will probably get him into the Opening day roster.

I have very serious doubts about our Aug trades speculation. Also the Gibby being gone speculation.
bpoz - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#363345) #
Very good analysis ISLAND BOY.
Chuck - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#363346) #
I am rooting for Biagini. He's an odd duck, but an interesting one.

I wonder if expectations after his rookie season were simply not terribly realistic. His ERA in 2016 was an impresive 3.06. In 2018 it is a Satanic 6.66. He has gone from being flukily good at HR prevention (0.4) to flukily bad (2.3). FG has his xFIPs in 2016 and 2018 being 3.71 and 4.48.

Now, cutting through the noise and focusing just on his xFIPs, there's still not a whole lot to get terribly excited about. On a team very thin in pitching, however, I believe he'll continue to get chances. But we will likely never see a return of the 2016 version of Biagini that was highly illusory to begin with.

CeeBee - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#363347) #
Ack.... a 40 man spot. Thats whay i get for typing in the dark and not proofreading.
bpoz - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#363348) #
I think 49 is quite accurate CeeBee. I actually see 9 being added by December, which means 9 being subtracted.
I would start with Donaldson being added before the end of the season. So someone has to come off.

9 may be too high. But fairly close.
Chuck - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#363349) #
My Aaron Loup watch continues unabated. I am unduly fascinated by his proclivity to plunk LHBs and his unknowing pursuit of Ron Hunt, a player who elevated his HBP ability while a member of my hometown Montreal Expos (50 in one season!).

Hunt got hit in 3.9% of his career plate appearances. Thanks to his most recent victim, Justin Bour last week, Loup has now hit 3.8% of his career LHBs (or pinatas, as they are called in the Loup home).

Hunt is not today's poster child for plunking, however. That would be Brandon Guyer, who has decided that now that he qualifies for an MLB pension, will try a lot harder to dodge incoming missiles. In so doing, he has become much less interesting. Nevertheless, his career HBP rate stands at 5.7%, entirely beyond Aaron Loup's reach.

John Northey - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#363350) #
Biagini I see as the 4-7 guy in the pen.  If he is top 3 there is an issue.  As to 40 man drops ...
  • Very likely (6)
    • free agents: Estrada, Clippard, Granderson, (Donaldson also but not on 40 man right now)
    • AAAA guys: Cumpton, Mayza
    • Release please: Garcia
  • Maybe (7)
    • David Paulino (not doing well), Thomas Pannone (also meh)
    • Failed prospects: Smith Jr, Pompey, Tellez unless he keeps pounding (OPS by month 586-750-748-911-1.135)
    • meh: Petricka, Santos
Those 13 I put higher than Biagini on the to be dropped list.  Which prospects like SRF must be added this year?  Pentecost is the only name from his draft year that jumps out at me but his OPS is just 598.
PeterG - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#363351) #
John, I have some different thoughts about 40 man drops. Despite his high ERA, Mayza will stay....too much potential to not give a longer opportunity. I agree with the other very likelies. As to the maybes, Paulino and Pannone should stick as should Pompey if there are no further problems. Petricka is safe I think but Santos is surely gone. Dwight Smith is borderline. It might be between him and Jonathan Davis for a spot.

One player you did not mention is Sam Gaviglio with an ERA over 10 last 11 starts. I know that pitching depth is needed but surely there will be better. As I expect Paulino , Pannone and SRF on the 40 as well as maybe a couple of hurlers yet to be acquired, I would suggest that Gaviglio's spot is tenuous at best. He could still serve as depth at Buffalo if he passes waivers which is likely imo.
bpoz - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#363352) #
Peter G, you probably have a longer list of additions to the 40 man. I do. This FO values SPs very highly. Patrick Murphy's 106 IP last year and 122 this year seems too valuable to risk losing as a rule 5 pickup.

IMO he is not the only promising SP at risk. SRF is a sure thing add. Harris and Romano have been consistently more good than bad.

I think Pompey's health the rest of the year is key. A Sept callup has to happen or IMO he is off the 40 man since he has run out of options. Pillar, T Hernandez and Grichuk are the 2019 projected regulars. All others including J Davis are 4th OFs as of now. That is a lot of 40 man space.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#363353) #
I think there is a near zero chance Paulino or Pannome are dropped with their pedigree. The guys who absolutely need to be added to the 40 man are:

Patrick Murphy
Jordan Romano

The borderline prospects who might be considered for the 40 man to protect them from the rule 5 or becoming a minor league free agent are:

Jonathan Davis
Angel Perodmo
Travis Bergen
Yennsy Diaz
John Harris
Forrest Wall

Jonathan Davis and Forrest Wall are the only top 30 prospects on that list and project as a 4th outfielder / platoon types. Yennsy Diaz is a prospect for sure, but I don't think could last on a major league roster for an entire year so he should be fine. I am not entirely sure what the Jays have in Travis Bergen, and he might be a candidate to have a trial in September.

Overall I am not extremely worried about the 40-man, but I do think the Blue Jays need to start choosing between similar prospects. They now have 5 AAA outfielders in Pompey, Smith Jr, McKinney, Alford and Davis that they need to start giving roles to on the big squad or cut AA even Harold Ramierez and Forrest Wall are adding to the glut.
scottt - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#363354) #
Bluebanter has an interesting list of rule V eligible players. Keep in mind it predates all of this year trades.

SRF, for sure.
Connor Panas? Harris? Vicuna?

Left over from last year:
Romano? Patrick Murphy?

Left over from 2 years ago:
J Davis?

GabrielSyme - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#363355) #
There is no way that Gaviglio loses his spot right now. While he's been a little homer-prone, he also boasts an xFIP and SIERA below 4.2, which is pretty much that of a mid-rotation starter. Maybe he can't live up to those predictors, but I'd be surprised if he's dropped.

For a rebuilding team, we have too many outfielders and outfield prospects. Pillar is the obvious one to trade, but you could try to sell high on Grichuk if he finishes strong as well. Then you can give Pompey (or Alford) a chance to make the team.
PeterG - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#363356) #
bPoz, I did not mention anything about possible additions. Patrick Murphy is a slam dunk imo.
hypobole - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#363357) #
Even if there is no starting spot for Gaviglio, I think he would be an excellent choice as a long man.
Thomas - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#363358) #
I agree that I think that there is very little chance that Petricka, Paulino or Pannone (the Three P's) lose their 40 man spots.
PeterG - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#363359) #
I would trade Pillar but keep Grichuk, even offer longer term contract. I fail to see why you think Gaviglio is safe. He has very little in terms of stuff and is often hit hard. As I pointed out previously, his ERA the past 11 starts has been over 10. Is this the kind of pitcher we want on the roster? I hope not. I think Hauschild has a better chance of sticking than Gaviglio. As a rule 5 pick 2 years ago, someone thought quite highly of him. Often being a rule 5 screws up development and it may have been so in his case. Just using the naked eye and my knowledge of pitching, I would suggest that he has far better stuff than does Gaviglio.
scottt - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#363360) #
Pillar's value in WAR: 4.9, 3.5, 2.8... currently on track for about 2.3.

I don't think they'll hang on to Smith Jr for very long, but he has hit at the highest level.
Pompey needs a last shot.  Davis is interesting. He's a lot like Pillar.
Alford and McKinney are too highly ranked to drop.

scottt - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#363361) #
As for the drop, they need 3 infielders plus maybe 2 backups.
Tulo, Diaz,, Solarte, Travis, Gurriel and Drury plus soon Guerrero and the clock is ticking on Urena.
Also, they have too many catchers as well.

The need to do some cleanup before the rule V draft.

bpoz - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#363362) #
Thanks Peter G and Shoeless. PeterG I was hoping you had a list and could provide some names. I find your list valuable Shoeless.

I could never figure out the calculation adding Int'l players to the 40 man for protection.

Y Diaz is having an awesome year. I expect him to start in AA next year. 22 years old all of 2019 season. Then Max Castillo if healthy and playing well completes Dunedin next year and goes to AA and spends the year there as a 21 year old.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#363363) #
Scott, I agree that with what we know about Gurriel and Diaz the days of Urena as a day might be coming to an end.

Once the dust settles I imagine the Jays want an infield of Vladdy, Gurriel, Drury, Smoak or Vladdy, Tulo, Gurriel, Smoak come June.

If Tulo does stick with the team next year I see no real chance for Travis to stick with the team once Vlad Jr gets called up as Diaz/Drury will be the back-up infielders. The two main conditions for Travis sticking around are Tulo not being here, and Gurriel sticking at SS or getting moved to the outfield. I see absolutely no chance Solarte makes the team next year.

GabrielSyme - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#363364) #
If the Jays are willing to entrust shortstop to Gurriel, I think Aledmys Diaz could be an attractive trade chip this offseason - he's re-established his offensive value (fwiw, his xwOBA is significantly better now than in his all-star rookie year), and his defensive numbers are workable for a starting shortstop. The Jays have Gurriel and an untradeable Tulo, along with Bichette, Warmoth and Smith coming up behind, and Diaz doesn't really fit with the rest of the team.
bpoz - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#363365) #
Very good/forward thinking GabrielSyme. Trade Diaz. Tulo, Gurriel, Bichette and Urena as backup SS. So we have the numbers in case of injury and Bichette does not need to be added to the 40 man until necessary. They are also backup to Travis if needed.

Solarte gives an offensive boost IMO. He can play, 1B, 3B, DH and maybe 2B. Solarte and Grichuk won the game on July 22 against Baltimore. Both hit late 2 run Homeruns.
jerjapan - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#363366) #
There was a detailed discussion of rule v eligible players and the coming 40 man roster crunch last week in this thread:
This was before the acquisitions of Copping and Waguespack, both of whom are eligible for the first time this year, and before the Osuna trade.  Paulino and Giles are already on the 40 man, and Perez has one more year before he needs protecting, since his birthday is June 5th and the cutoff is the 6th.
Even if we jettison all the FAs and say goodbye to AAAA guys like Santos, Cumpton and Cruz, we only have around 7 spots to protect the likes of Wall, Murphy, Romano, Bergen, Fisk, Shafer, Davis, Perdomo, Harris, Vicuna, Diaz, Copping and Waguespack. 

Atkins had a good trade deadline, but the return is mitigated somewhat by the rule v eligibility for most of the prospects acquired.  Fringe vets like Biagini, Barnes, Mayza and Gaviglio are definitely not safe, nor are current 40 man prospects like Pompey, Smith and Tellez.  Solarte likely sees his option declined, and Morales is even less deserving of a roster spot if it means losing someone like Pompey to keep him.
SK in NJ - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#363367) #
The Jays need to start doing some "Brian Cashman Specials", meaning trading 40 man roster clutter for either big league help, minor leaguers who don't need protection, or international draft money. The team has basically spent three years adding to the farm system with very minimal subtraction, which means there will be a logjam at some point. Good problem to have, but they need to be able to juggle that without losing anyone important.
John Northey - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#363370) #
SK - preaching to the choir.  Lets see some of those future rule 5 losses sent away for international free agent cash and then go sign a few more of those guys.  Can't trade for draft picks, but this is the same idea.  A few hundred K extra could get the Jays a few more quality prospects who don't need protecting for 5 years.  At that point you do more of those trades and keep re-filling the que.
hypobole - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#363372) #
Just checked FG's Jays leaderboards. With Happ and his 2.1 WAR gone, the best pitcher remaining is Ryan Borucki - 1.5 WAR in only 7 games.

On the position player side, Diaz is at the top with 1.4 WAR. Smoak second, also at 1.4 - guess it's a decimal point thing.
Glevin - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#363373) #
Island boy, yes starting and relieving are very different. That still doesn’t make sense how moving someone to rotation and back ruins them. Really, players are not that sensitive. If biagini were a good reliever, he would be a good reliever now. If failing as a starter ruined his confidence, he was never going to work out anyway. The real issue is that he’s just not very good and never was very good,

Not too worried about the 40man. Lots of mediocre players who could get claimed but Jays wouldn’t miss. More worried about IF crunch in majors. Not sure why Jays would trade Diaz. He’s under contract until 2023 which fits the Jays window well. Obviously, if he got a great return, go for it but see it as unlikely.
dan gordon - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#363374) #
I also think Diaz is a good fit for the SS position, and is under long term control. He's a better hitter than people realize. I like an infield of Vladdy, Diaz, Travis and Smoak, with Gurriel moving to the OF. The Jays seem to like Drury, who isn't worth a roster spot IMO, but they probably keep him around as a backup. I'd rather have Solarte, even with the lack of hustle, than Drury.

I don't really see a 40-man problem. The Jays website currently lists 39 guys on the 40-man, and I can see 8 more who are either free agents after the season or are easily droppable - that leaves 9 spots open, and I see only 5 - 7 that need to be added from the minors, plus Tulo. Others either wouldn't get taken, or are of little, if any, consequence. I hope they find a spot for Bergen.
scottt - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#363375) #
Still need to see if Estrada, Donaldson, Granderson or even Clippard bring back anyone that needs a spot on the 40 roster.
jerjapan - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#363376) #
The 40 man and the rule v draft are both a matter of perspective.  Do you care about prospects lost outside the Jays' top 20?  Do you mind the idea of losing a Tim Mayza or Joe Biaginim a Dwight Smith or a Dalton Pompey, or not?  It's small potatoes really, but given the amount of ink spilled on the prospects acquired at the trade deadline, some of us are going to be disappointed by some of the players lost in November.  It's certainly the biggest crunch in my time chatting Jays on the Box, and a number of the prospects we got at the deadline were available precisely because they required protection on the 40 man. 

Glevin, the idea that Biagini's development was damaged by his treatment is not unique - Daniel Bard comes to mind as another guy who was solid in one role, failed in another and never recovered.  Hopefully Biaigini bounces back, but it's not hard to imagine the pressure of starting in Buffalo for $40,000 a year got to the guy, or some of the other explanations Island Boy already outlined. 

It's the same reason I don't like some of the commentary around Pompey's run-in with Meacham... there is a lot on the line for AAA players, and if they fail, they can't count on the org to have their back.  I continue to wonder if Biagini remains on the big league roster because the org is acknowledging the risks Biagini assumed by attempting to become a starter.  In all likelihood, he starts this season in the big league bullpen if he doesn't agree to the conversion to starting.  
hypobole - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#363377) #
Biagini was worth 1.2 WAR in 2016 in his relief role. A 1+ WAR reliever is a good reliever. Biagini was a good reliever in 2016.

So using 1+ WAR as the threshold for good, what percentage of good MLB relievers were good the following year? What percentage were good 2 years later?
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#363379) #
Ryan Tepera has an ERA of 7, and has been hit for a .964 OPS, since the All-Star break. He's suffering from not having been used as a starter in the first half.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc, the illusion that what comes first causes that which follows, is illogic masquerading as reason.
John Northey - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#363382) #
Just saw on Wikipedia a rule 5 draft results from 1997-2017.
Over those 20 years the Jays lost...
I suspect only Gibbons was recognized by most here.  Maybe Emaus as well.  So over 20 years only 10 guys drafted, one who was any good (he was a decent 4th OF, with a peak as a good regular but only once cracked 2 WAR).
ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 06 2018 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#363383) #
As many people have said, we tend to overvalue our own prospects. Of all the young players that AA traded, how many have actually become stars, or even good players? Noah Syndergaard is the best by far. I looked in particular at the Miami trade where we got Mark Buehrle.

The Jays gave up 5 young players plus Yunel Escobar who is in the Independent League and Jeff Mathis, who is still playing with Arizona. Jake Marisnick is the top producer with 9 WAR but over 6 seasons. Anthony DeSciafani has been mediocre with 4.5 WAR in several seasons with Cincinnati. Henderson Alvarez, who I thought might be a star, really only had one good year in Miami with a 4.4 WAR, but hurt his arm and is now pitching in the Mexican League. Adeiny Hechavarria has bounced around several teams, now with Pittsburgh, and really hasn't done anything. Justin Nicolino played parts of 3 seasons with Miami, was poor and got decidedly worse each season and is now in AAA with Cincinnati.

The point I'm making is that at the time of the trade we probably all thoughts it was a lot of good prospects we were giving up, but it didn't turn out that way. There's an equally good chance that in 7 to 8 years nearly all the names mentioned as needing protection this winter will be out of baseball, or will have carved out very nondescript careers.
jerjapan - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 02:31 AM EDT (#363385) #
Post hoc ergo propter hoc, the illusion that what comes first causes that which follows, is illogic masquerading as reason.

Well, sort of, if I was in any way implying that it is a given that Biagini was ruined by the conversion.  To suggest that I was is, ironically, a straw man.   I'm just saying it's possible that Biagini was affected.  Who knows?  Biagini's treatment certainly doesn't align with anything I know about developing young talent, but plenty of athletes succeed in less than ideal situations.  we simply don't have data on this, and that's whats great about baseball fandom- we have data.  I'd love to see evidence on player development on either side of the issue.   I just dislike absolutism - 'he couldn't have been affected' type thinking. 

Same goes with the 40 man.  Sure, we haven't lost anything of value in decades, other than Jay Gibbons, if you consider him valuable.  Historically, little talent is garnered in the 40 man.  Little.  Not none.  Odubel Herrera, taken in 2014 and over 12 fWAR career for the Phillies, comes to mind. Some of the prospects Atkins acquired at the deadline were acknowledged by fans and media alike as being available due to rule v eligibility, some will be exposed this year, and yet the trade deadline wrap up thread has 140 comments.  The amount of ink spilled on Biagini, and Sparkman the year after also shows the level of interest in the depths of the minor league system, and marginal roster acquisitions.  Nobody is claiming they are future stars, or even every day big leaguers.  what we can note objectively is that the system is stronger than it has been in a while, and more interesting players will be exposed this year than years prior. 
Glevin - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 03:12 AM EDT (#363386) #
"Well, sort of, if I was in any way implying that it is a given that Biagini was ruined by the conversion. To suggest that I was is, ironically, a straw man. I'm just saying it's possible that Biagini was affected. Who knows? Biagini's treatment certainly doesn't align with anything I know about developing young talent, but plenty of athletes succeed in less than ideal situations. we simply don't have data on this, and that's whats great about baseball fandom- we have data. I'd love to see evidence on player development on either side of the issue. I just dislike absolutism - 'he couldn't have been affected' type thinking."

It is possible he was affected but it is extremely unlikely. Anyway, if a player is this sensitive, he was never going to make it. Professional athletes need to have thick skin and learn from failure. What would happen if he had a bad run in the pen? Would he lose his confidence then? By far the most likely explanation is that Biagini was an OK middle reliever for a year and OK middle relievers fall apart all the time. And yes, this happens all the time in player development. Players are asked to move positions, are moved up and down the batting order, are sent down, are held back longer than they think the should be. It's the norm not the exception.
scottt - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 06:05 AM EDT (#363388) #
The odds of losing players in the rule V draft increases as the farm system improves.
Also, remember that they lost Ramirez and Rowley on waivers this year.
Pitchers are probably the ones worth worrying about.

Emaus had an OPS of .857 and was playing in AAA when picked by New York.
Gibbons had an OPS .929 in AA.

Mike D - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#363389) #
Esteban L----a will plead guilty:

Let the record reflect that we here at Batter's Box knew something was up with that guy. "Voldemort," per Magpie.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#363390) #
An interesting article on shifting and how the strategy may not be so effective after all.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#363392) #
I am not saying the shift isn't as effective as perception, but that article was mostly opinion based and not fact based.
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#363396) #
It is possible he was affected but it is extremely unlikely. Anyway, if a player is this sensitive, he was never going to make it. Professional athletes need to have thick skin and learn from failure.
I fundamentally disagree with this and find it completely offensive (though not intentionally so).
1-unless you are personal friends with Biagini, or have connections to the team where you'd hear about personal information, you don't know. I don't know. We can't know because we're on the outside. Making such a definitive statement is a fallacy (argument from ignorance).
2-These are two different things (being affected by uncertainty/ etc. )
3-it is extremely dismissive of mental health issues. Ever been in a job where your role is uncertain? It's exhausting and stressful. It's also not easy to just turn that reaction off.Hell, Biagini may even feel like he's fine and not know things have been affecting him in order to address it better.
Something being the norm doesn't make it easier for people to deal with, doesn't mean they can't do the job anyway. It's not just in pro sports that people are mismanaged.
I'm sure there's tons of examples available of pro athletes substance abuse (not for pain relief) related to being "sensitive" as you put it. Especially the further back you go.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#363397) #
Haven't seen any answers for the question I asked last night in the Biagini discussion..

A few weeks back, former Jay Liam Hendricks was DFA'd and I opined the Years of Control thing we were concerned about at the time of the trade turned out to be pretty meaningless since non-elite relievers are so volatile.

A short time later Jeff Sullivan made a similar remark in a chat, but he also realised it was just supposition, so he actually ran some numbers.

To finally get to the point, a reliever who was good (1+ WAR) one year has been good the following year only 45% of the time. Two years later only 32% of the time.

So odds are Biagini would have only had about a 1 in 3 chance of being good this year, no matter how he was handled.
Thomas - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#363398) #
Did Biagini always take this long between pitches? I do not recall.

It never stood out to me during his rookie year as a reliever that he was a particularly slow worker, but I may have been more focused on his success than his time between pitches. His pace stands out now, but I cannot tell if that's just because it became more noticeable when he was a starter.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#363402) #
Interesting article hypobole.  Starting pitchers who are solid (3+ WAR) are the most stable at 52% next year, 42% year 3.  Relievers the least at 45/32.  Not as big a gap as I expected to be honest.  I'd love to see further studies where they take guys who have had multiple years of 1+ WAR as a reliever and how do they do year 3+ (IE: year 1 and year 2 over 1, how do they do year 3 & 4).  Given the massive contracts teams have been giving relievers and other players it does seem a big risk unless you factor in other stuff.  IE: are high strikeout pitchers more likely to hold value?  What about low walk vs high walk ones?  Ones with low BABIP?  I have my suspicions but don't know for sure.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#363403) #
Thomas, time between pitches is tracked by FG, and you're right, he's taking longer.

If interested, scroll down to Pitch Info Plate Discipline on Biagini's page. PACE column is time between pitches.
scottt - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#363404) #
There might be a difference between stretch and wind up.
Otherwise, I think they simplified Biagini's delivery. He's more quiet now.
It's all a matter of replicating his delivery without becoming predictable.

Spifficus - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#363406) #
His time between pitches has gone up 2.7 seconds from 2016 to now (from a slow 24.7 to a glacial 27.4). It's been getting worse, too - since June 1st, he's at 29.9, and will soon be measured in Epochs.

Interestingly, while fiddling with Brook's Baseball looking for differences, it also looks like he raised his armslot over 2016. Interestingly, a week or two ago, I watched an outing and marvelled at how over-the-top he was, and wondered if that was new, or if I just hadn't noticed before. Turns out it wasn't that new, but he wasn't always that way.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#363411) #
Well, sort of, if I was in any way implying that it is a given that Biagini was ruined by the conversion. To suggest that I was is, ironically, a straw man

I wasn't responding to your post, The suggestion that Biagini's performance as a reliever is the result of having been put in the rotation was made above.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#363416) #
Thought I'd check fangraphs for pace...
for guys with 10+ IP: Bud Norris (Cardinals reliever) is the worst at 31.2 with Joe Kelly of the Red Sox right behind at 31.0

For Jays
Tyler Clippard is the worst at 28.5 with Ryan Tepera tied with Biagini at 27.5
Fastest is Ryan Borucki at 21.1 (take note you slow pokes)

Worth noting: they have the stats back to 2007 and Halladay from 2007 - 2013 was between 13.9 (2007) to 21.2 (2008) with most years being in the teens.  He was fast.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#363417) #
The careers of Steve Trachsel and Mike Hargrove never overlapped, but boy howdy, an AB featuring those two might have caused time to reverse. Both successfully earned the nickname "the human rain delay".

I seem to recall Juan Guzman and Kelvim Escobar generally taking forever to pitch. In their case, they would walk around the mound, fart around with the rosin bag, and basically do anything but sidle up to the rubber. Biagini, however, seems to get to the rubber in decent enough time, but then rocks back and forth a half dozen times, continually adjusting the placement of his left foot, before finally pitching. I think that is even tougher to watch than the aforementioned guys perpetually going on walkabout.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#363418) #
Urena back up as Drury has horrid luck - seems he was at the space needle and was sitting on the glass floor when someone in a wheelchair ran over his hand and broke it.  Ouch.  via Bluebird Banter.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#363419) #
You simply can't make that story up.....good grief!
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#363420) #
I think that story is a joke - Actually, Drury just wanted to join his mentor/hero Tulo on the DL.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#363421) #
...apparently you can, it was a joke and a fool I am.

I really hope Drury didn't take aim at a wall in general frustration, really not what he needs right now.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#363422) #
Or maybe he was helping Jeff Kent wash his truck. Or tobogganing with Paul Quantrill. Or dreaming of spiders.
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#363423) #
There's some speculation about Drury being hit on his hands in his last game as a Yankee & of course, Drury is known to not be completely honest with his employers about injuries.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#363424) #
Sanchez to pitch in the GCL Thursday. He could be back in a couple of weeks.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#363428) #
Eh, there have been enough weird injuries over the years in baseball (or at least announced ones) that anything seems possible.  From the spiders that Glen Hill dreamed of (smashing a glass table while sleeping then crawling on the pieces while sleeping) to Wade Boggs pulling a muscle while putting on boots to Paul Quantrill breaking a leg while boating (I think water skiing) and of course the weird deaths from boating and the like over the years.
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 07 2018 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#363449) #
Rick Aguilera pulled a muscle lifting his luggage off the airport carousel.
Parker - Friday, August 10 2018 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#363559) #
"Makes absolutely no sense so for the Mets is probably true."

I thought this too.

If an organization is ever going to do anything that's the opposite of making sense, the Metropolitans are the hands-down go-to guys.
Parker - Friday, August 10 2018 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#363560) #
"Sorry for the long post and these are just my ideas so people may correct me. I really do believe that starting and relieving are two different roles and a lot of pitchers are cut out to do either one or the other. Maybe Biagini just isn't that good, or maybe he just isn't suited to be a starter and lost his confidence doing the one thing he was good at,relieving."

I'm on board with this. I don't think Biagini is any good, but the analysis is solid.

I know the "appeal to authority" argument is flawed, but I still don't think the Giants let Biagini go for nothing because they DON'T know anything about developing pitchers.
Parker - Friday, August 10 2018 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#363561) #
"Or maybe he was helping Jeff Kent wash his truck. Or tobogganing with Paul Quantrill. Or dreaming of spiders."

Awesome. Love it.
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