Lots of sputtering in NY. Judge is still not back. Chapman is not back. Sanchez is lost at sea. Stanton has been okay, but a far cry from MVP caliber. Bird has been a disaster (though staying under the tax threshold apparently trumped the need for an upgrade so Smoak went unclaimed while on waivers).

And who would be their ideal SP for the WC game? Severino has been awful in the second half. Happ maybe? Is he their new saviour?

" Unfortunately the Blue Jays have employed two good relief pitchers this season and both now pitch in the National League.... "

Osuna?

Tanaka has been very good in the second half. Yankees best hitter has been Luke Voit, 1st baseman they picked up from the Cards at the deadline. Will he keep it up? Also says something about the rest of the Yankee hitters. Voit's 0.2 fWAR leads the position players in September.

Osuna might be seen as more of a batterer than a pitcher...

Osuna?

And Oh.

Whoa, nice and easy.  I think JohnL was referring to the fact that the Astros are no longer in the National League, and haven't been for awhile...

I think JohnL was referring to the fact that the Astros are no longer in the National League, and haven't been for awhile...

D'OH!

According to Bob Nightengale, last off-season the Jays rejected an offer from the Cardinals of Jack Flaherty and another prospect for Donaldson. Oops.

I wonder if that's part of the supposed tension between Shapiro and Rogers, with Shapiro wanting to tear it down after last season, but Rogers wanting him to hold on and give it another shot, to maintain their attendance and ratings.

Of course, he is a pitcher (Jack Flaherty) and has a sub 3 ERA 10.9 K/9 vs 3.4 BB/9. At age 22 too. #53 prospect in MLB according to Baseball America pre-2018. Still, imagine how fans would've reacted had that trade happened at that time. It would've been ugly. Sometimes you need to factor in fan reaction and not just what would be best for the club. Sucks, but true.

Reminds me of the DeRozan trade. There's still a legion of casual Raptors fans that are upset over it; he's arguably the most popular player in franchise history outside of Vince. Sometimes the smart move is also an unpopular one.

I sure hope Rogers executives are staying the hell out of the operations side. I've listened to how Eugene Melnyk has wrecked the Senators over the past couple of days on the radio (McCown likened him to Harold Ballard today). Probably wishful thinking.

I sure hope Rogers executives are staying the hell out of the operations side.

They haven't in the past. One of the Rogers kids was trying to get Beeston to fire AA prior to the 2015 season.

That definitely hurts, if true. Between that and allegedly having a much better package from Houston for Osuna in July 2017 than the one they ended up taking, and the value lost over the past calendar year is extensive.

Not starting the rebuild in July 2017/winter 2017 is going to hurt a lot, but with the amount of money/attendance/revenue the team generated in 2015-17, it was likely out of the the FO's hands.

Frustrating, but that's corporate ownership. Can't afford too many missed opportunities considering the Jays have to compete with Boston and New York.

The J.A. Happ contract was a success, while resigning Marco Estrada was not a success. The less said about Jaime Garcia, the better.

Aaron Sanchez came from a long way back and took most of the Season to look very good again. Perhaps he gets back to being a #1 Starter again. On the other hand, Marcus Stroman wasn't more than an average #3 Starter when he played. It's hard to think he'll ever be a Front-line Starter again. Joe Biagini should never have been a Starter. It's taken away too much of his dominance as a Reliever.

Ryan Borucki looks like a keeper for the Rotation and might develop the ability of a #2 Starter, it's close. But that might not happen by next year. Sean Reid-Foley is starting to look like that top tier prospect he was not that long ago. As long as he believes he belongs here, he could do well. Thomas Pannone is a surprise, I don't know what he is. It's such a very small sample but I think he belongs. Sam Gaviglio has had some success, but he's barely a borderline 5th Starter right now. I'm not sure he could be better.

People ignore what they don't want to hear/read, so they write/speak their own agenda. After 2016 Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna were seen as long term pieces for the Jays. Donaldson, Tulowitzki and Martin were added to the list. The Jays were planning on competing as long as they could. As bad as 2017 was considered, just a healthy Sanchez or a healthy Donaldson for the whole Season puts the Jays in the Postseason - either. In 2018 the Jays were building the Team around Josh Donaldson, his last 17 games: .364 .419 .788 had them dreaming, as were the fans. Thus the trades.

Frustrating, but that's corporate ownership. Can't afford too many missed opportunities considering the Jays have to compete with Boston and New York.

You just hit on my two long-term wishes for the franchise:

1. Reorganizing the corporate ownership of the team to a separate sports/entertainment entity like MLSE (if not MLSE itself, which of course is jointly owned by Rogers). This would remove the Jays' profit/loss from Rogers' Media division and alleviate the pressure of how the baseball operations impact profitability on a quarter-by-quarter basis (i.e. susceptible to short-term thinking).

2. A re-balancing of schedules, which would likely require revisiting (and expanding) the playoff format as a catalyst. Playing the Sox and Yankees 19 times is just a crappy disadvantage.

People ignore what they don't want to hear/read, so they write/speak their own agenda.

Agreed, Richard. This is why I invite you to go back and read the Opening Day Predictions post from March 29th:

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20180329112041485#comments

Or better yet, go back and look at Fangraphs' or other statistical models that predicted final standings. All that to say, you had to go through some serious mental gymnastics to convince yourself that the Jays were going to beat out one of the Yankees, Sox or the 2 or 3 West teams that were expected to be good.

I mean hell, you had one of the most prophetic comments from that thread:

https://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=355192

Or better yet, go back and look at Fangraphs' or other statistical models that predicted final standings

FG's pre-season model actually had us at 84.3 wins and the favourite for the 2nd WC. Next closest were Twins (82.9) and Angels (82.5). Every other team was projected at less than 78 wins.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta=

Of course if the Jay's made that JD-Flaherty trade the numbers wouldn't be so kind. I suspect pitching to NYY/BOS and even the Rays (steals, bunting, forcing errors) would certainly inflate his numbers and therefore the value of the return.

FG's pre-season model actually had us at 84.3 wins and the favourite for the 2nd WC. Next closest were Twins (82.9) and Angels (82.5). Every other team was projected at less than 78 wins.

I distinctly remember that win total and the debate with friends (84 wins has never qualified a team for the WC in the AL; Minny was closest last year), but you're right, apparently that would have been good for 5th best in the AL and I stand corrected.

As @ByRobertMurray reported, #BlueJays are making changes in pro scouting department. Jon Bunnell, Kimball Crossley, Dan Evans and Bryan Lambe have been let go, while Jim Beattie and Brad Matthews are retiring. Positions will be replaced.

That first inning by SRF is the most dominant pitching I've seen from a Jay's starter in almost 10 years.

High in, low away, down in. Everywhere Jansen placed the glove the pitch was delivered.

That was ridiculously impressive.

I’m not really sold on Gurriel yet (that bb% is going to be hard to overcome) but he certainly looks like he could (at least) reprise Solarte’s role on the club next year and far more successfully.

I agree he's more Solarte than vintage Zobrist.

Extremely impressive by SRF getting out of that jam.

For those of you not old enough to have seen a Juan Guzman start, this is what they were often like. Tons of swinging strikes, Ks, BBs and pitches.

“For those of you not old enough to have seen a Juan Guzman start, this is what they were often like. Tons of swinging strikes, Ks, BBs and pitches”

Juan Guzman was one of the slowest working pitchers I’ve ever seen. This game would still be in the 2nd inning if Guzman were pitching,

And a whole bunch of splitters in the dirt!

Solarte, Petricka and Barnes are really trying to make the offseason 40 man decisions easier for management.

I can't imagine why you'd want any one of them. Solarte is the only major leaguer of the three, and there's no fit for him here.

Just your typical 4 hour 8-7 laugher.

The Yankees and the Athletics are working hard to get Home Field Advantage. The Yankees can really hit if a Pitcher is struggling, otherwise they don't always hit as well as the A's. Their Starting Pitching lately relies on more luck than skill or an Umpire that favors them. The Bullpen is not the same without Chapman - near .500 without him and he's about a week away. Who wins tomorrow?

Solarte should be released, option not picked or whatever.
Barnes should be outrighted, should clear waivers easily if you picked the right time.
Petricka, might have an option left, but might not clear waivers. Not sure on that one.
Leiter should be let go.
Paulino, Guerrieri, Biagini should give plenty of innings out of the pen. Is it enough?
There is no space for Pompey unless they trade Pillar.
I'd add Harold Ramirez and let go Smith, see if he clears.

Those seems like easy decisions.

The Rays are such a bunch of killjoys.

With Barnes, the one thing he has in his favour is that he'll be cheap, not arb eligible until after next year. And he was worth 1.4 bWAR last season in over 66 IP.
However FG agrees with Magpie, 0.2 fWAR last year, -0.2 this, so exactly replacement level over his last 100 IP. Not a guy a team with a roster crunch should hold on to.

Petricka is a lot easier, since he's arb eligible and hasn't even been replacement level his past 3 seasons - obvious dump.

As for Solarte, the only way I'd like to see him play is in the minors on a Bobby Meacham managed team. The aftermath of him hitting a ground ball right at someone would be interesting if nothing else.

The Rays are such a bunch of killjoys.

The game featured two openers. It was "start" #26 for Stanek and #5 for Hendricks. Stanek is just two back of Snell for the team lead so figures to pass him before the year is done. The Rays have used 27 pitchers (excluding position players) and only two have surpassed 100 innings.

Eno Sarris has a cool piece in TheAthletic that was published yesterday. He hooked me with a prologue about stout but I stayed for the SRF commentary. His summation after an analysis of his four pitches:

Sum it up and we’ve got a pitcher with a deceptive fastball that works really well when he commands it, an above-average slider, and two average to below-average other pitches that could maybe play up if he varied the usage on them more. He’s intriguing, but he hasn’t put it all together yet.

He also likens SRF's fastball to Carlos Carrasco's in the article comments.

Love TheAthletic - Lott, Stoeten and McGrath are fantastic for Jays coverage and as an avid Raps/Leafs/Gunners/NFL fan it's, been well worth it.

In Chuck's "killing time until 2021" vein, here's a quiz.

In the almost 50 years from 1969 through 2018 only 1 player has 4000 PA's with fewer than 3 triples.

Mike, it’s a pretty common scouting bias. They have Riley Adams as a 30 as well and he’s probably faster than Jansen. But he’s a huge guy, but he’s a C but .... so, of course, he must be slow. There is also a difference between speed and quickness which I think some conflate (neither Jansen nor Adams are quick in the first step sense but they’re pretty fast once running full out).

Speed and base running skills are yet another area that requires multiple viewings. You might go to 2-3 games and never see a C run full out.

Hypobole that’s a great question. I’m tempted to guess Morales but that is my recency bias at work, I can’t visualize a slower player but I’m sure there have been. I’d guess it was a P except the number of PAs makes that highly unlikely. So I’d guess it’s a C or 1B who plays at home in a small ballpark without odd corners (ruling out the KCs and Bostons).

Good guess with Kendrys, but last year someone pointed this guy was even slower.

He's also 1 of only 2 players in history with 4000+ PA's, that have required over 2000 PA's per triple. The other guy is Victor Martinez - 8148 PA's, 3 triples.

Speed's supposed to be based on stopwatch times to 1B (with some fudgimg to consider underway speed and thinks like that). The bigger issue is probably the relatively narrow bounds of those timings. A 20 would be Xx or slower, whereas a 30 would be X or X-0.1 seconds.

Home to 1st RHB 4.50, LHB 4.40 is a 30. Anything slower is a 20.

Teoscar with the D!

Of course my first thought was Bengie Molina, the slowest player I have ever seen, by an order of magnitude. (Bengie was so slow! How slow? Well, they timed him round the bases with a sundial...)

But Bengie had 6 career triples, which can only be explained by six collisions in the outfield that left two players sprawled unconscious in the grass....

The most significant difference in a Catcher's speeds, starts and ends with contact with the ball. Some Players react better/faster than others once contact is initially made. I think this is where speed is made, the difference could be big.

Bengie Molinara is a really good guess. But he played a few years at the end of his career in SF. That park has some crazy angles and corners to it. I’d guess some of those 6 came that way.

That’s a crazy autocorrect for Molina

Bengie Molinara is a really good guess.

Interesting how his name was almost auto-corrected to Bob Molinaro, a decidedly fast runner who really, really, really wanted to be in the majors and racked up almost 5000 minor league PAs before, in between and after stints in the show.

No, I am not Mrs. Molinaro.

Pannone and on, ‘till the break of dawn.

[Molina} played a few years at the end of his career in SF. That park has some crazy angles and corners to it. I’d guess some of those 6 came that way.

Not bad. Bengie hit two triples in 2000, when he was a lithe 25 year old, one in Cleveland and one in Detroit. His next came six years later, during his year with the Jays and it came in Tampa Bay. He went to the Giants in his old age and hit his next two at Pac Bell or whatever they're calling the Giants home field these days. Which gave him five for his career.

So...whats the answer to the trivia question?

Buck said that the Jays need to sign 1 or 2 establish starters for next year.
Cheap guys with experience.
They already have Stroman and Sanchez and I don't see how Borucki goes back to AAA.
They also have Gaviglio who can be a decent 5th starter.
That only leaves 1 spot for Pannone and SRF, later Merryweather, Zeuch and whoever they want to try out there. Plus the 40 roster spots are limited.

McGuire looked very good today.

The only MLB player with over 4000 PA's and fewer than 3 triples in the past 50 years (and actually in MLB history) is our very own Justin Smoak. Now up to 4091 PA's, 2 triples.

And yeah, as Nigel guessed, the leaderboard is littered with C's and 1B's, with one odd exception, Rich Dauer was a 2B with Earl Weaver's Orioles. Over 4200 PA's, 3 career triples.

And in the time frame you mention, another Oriole, Boog Powell, had 4,069 plate appearances and exactly 3 triples. His career started before the 1969 cut off, and he managed to accumulate 8 triples in his 7 seasons prior to 1969.

I think they only need to sign one established starter to eat innings. There is no way Gaviglio will be starting next season. I believe he will be DFA after the season in light of roster crunch. There is a good chace he would clear waivers and be outrighted to Buffalo for depth but he will be well down the list. He has already been given ample opportunity and come up well short imo.

I’m disappointed you spilled the beans, that question could have gotten us to the All Star Break in 2020 at least:)

I’m slightly surprised it’s Smoak as there are slower players than him but Safeco and Rogers are decidedly symmetrical parks which will surpress triples for tortoises.

Pannone has a little Jimmy Key in him with that slow curve from 3/4’s.

1. The Jays could acquire a young Starter with Front-of-the-Rotation upside and 4+ years of control. They have enough talent to make any deal. He should fit in very well with Aaron Sanchez and be with the Jays through 2022 or later. This should/could/might get them into the Postseason.

2. The Jays could sign a decent quality (not old) Starter as cheaply as possible. Term shouldn't be more than 1 or 2 years. This should shelter the Kids until they are ready.

3. The Jays could go all in-house for their Rotation, but that might be premature. Young Pitchers develop at their own rate, pushing them more rarely helps. Is everyone they will be considering 100% ready?

When they timed Jays as baserunners last season, Smoak was just slightly slower than Morales.

Adding two starters and going with Borucki as the #5 seems like a better idea. That would leave the AAA rotation as some combination of Paulino, SRF, Pannone, Zeuch, Waguespack, Harris, Romano, etc. That should be more than enough depth to cover for injuries and/or bad performance. There is injury and performance risk practically everywhere in that group so quantity will definitely help.

Maybe this coming off-season will resemble last winter's, except with pitching being the focus. So a trade for an underachieving arb eligible SP who the FO likes more than the team that has him (like Grichuk) and signing a cheap vet to log innings.

Reliable starters aren't exactly cheap. Happ probably gets another 3/40 deal.
It's too early to trade for a young starter. It's not like they can trade future stars to anchor the bad pitching and keep rolling average guys at all positions.

The Rays are having a lot of success by not signing establish starters.
The Orioles self destructed by signing them.
The one guy the Jays signed last winter was a disaster, but he looked like one of the best options at the time.

Can't agree with you this time SK. I think both Pannone and SRF pitch in the majors in 2019. All indications so far are that each can handle it. Of course, there needs to be a back up plan. I would be highly surprised if more than one established starter was signed. Of course, there will be some fringe guys signed to minor league contracts and given a look in ST. Sometimes, you can get lucky with that.

I'm going to assume we'll have almost zero hope of contention next year. I'd only sign reclamation projects, either to a cheap deal like Tyson Ross this year, or a minor league deal like Nats with Hellickson,

Hypobole, that would be my plan too. Neither Borucki or Pannone are young exactly. You might as well find out what you have there. Sign 2-3 reclamation projects/AAAA starters and then prepare to take your lumps with young starters.

Estrada leads the team with 133 innings pitched. He's not coming back.
Happ is second with 114. He's gone.
Gaviglio is 3rd wtih 108. He doesn't cost anything. Should they drop him?
Stroman is at 102 and could be done. Sanchez is at 101 and could make 3 more starts.

Gaviglio's ERA is up from last year 4.36 to 5.25, but his FIP is down from 5.81 to 4.76.
If they tighten up the defense, he could be an average pitcher.
Even if they do sign an establish pitcher next year, he's a placeholder until then because if would be worse to add someone to the 40 roster and outright them in the spring then to let them unprotected in the Rule V draft.

I would try signing some rebounding guys to Buffalo, the Toronto rotation looks easy to crack after all, and see who shows up in the spring. The pen should have several 2-3 innings guys. Buffalo should have a very interesting team next year.

Ryan Borucki will be 25 in March. He's under contract for at least another 6 years. I'm very sure he's made the Team next year as a Starter. He's made 9 Starts in which he's pitched like a #1/#2 Starter. He's made 5 Starts (4 in August) in which he's pitched like a poor #3/#4 Starter. He has 3 Starts remaining in which to influence the Jays. I would try Aaron Sanchez as #1 Starter with Ryan Borucki as the #2 Starter. The remaining spots are up for grabs as there is some question as to whether Marcus Stroman will be better than Sean Reid-Foley and Thomas Pannone.

Gaviglio does not have major league stuff. We should be aiming higher.

I'd keep Gaviglio as a long man in the pen, unless there is a better option. Haven't had a real long man in quite some time.

I think we can do a lot better in that role. Biagini? Paulino? Gaviglio is a total waste of a roster spot imo. Keeping him could cost us someone like Bergen or Copping in rule 5. I would much rather part with Gaviglio.

I believe that the reason Jays may be inclined to sign an established starting pitcher to a short term contract is that they are more unsure of Sanchez than of Borucki, Pannone, SRF. Having one too many is better than having one too less and would allow them to trade during the season if all healthy.

Peter, could you give a couple of examples of an "established starting pitcher" the Jays should sign?

Lance Lynn maybe...that's only an example. I don't like him that much myself but I think the Jays may be seeking more of an innings eater on a contract of 2 years or less than someone with high quality results. Hellickson could be another. Other possibilities might include Trevor Cahill, Matt Harvey (maybe),Hyun Jin Riu, Annibal Sanchez. The latter would be my choice.He might require a 3 year contract but as I said previously, he or one of the other vets can be traded if in the way. You might say that Gaviglio is no worse than some of these, but imo major league hitters are on to him and he will only get worse not better. Scott pointed out that his ERA was in the 5 area but post all star it has been 6 and dropping.

You've got Borucki twice- was Gaviglio the second Borucki?

Yep - was supposed to be Gaviglio for #6.  Price of doing this with a 4 year old yelling 'dad' the whole time.

Happ would be a terrible option. He'll be 36 in a month, and should get $10 AAV for multiple years. Unless you feel we're contenders next year with Happ, it's just throwing money away. He'll be 38 in 2021 when the timeline fits our potential contention.

Whoever the Jays sigh doesn't have to be part of the future, just help us bridge the gap.

My idea of getting two starters is not for the purposes of contending in 2019, but to add enough depth to cover a full season's worth of starts. There is just so much uncertainty with performance/health with the existing MLB rotation (Stroman/Sanchez), never mind counting on Borucki, Pannone, SRF, Paulino, etc, to stay healthy/effective all year on top of that.

Of course the team is rebuilding/retooling, so no harm in testing the young pitchers out in that case. I could see the logic behind getting one starter (Happ, Eovaldi, Lynn, etc, guys like that), and then going with one of SRF/Pannone/Paulino in the 5th starter spot. That's the more risky scenario, but a risk the team can afford to take if they are punting 2019, which appears to be the case. Just be prepared to see some Romano or Jon Harris starts in that scenario.

I see Happ as a pure dollar cost option during years when the Jays will have a low payroll.  Next year could be as low as $100 million.  2020 the same.  Why not spend some of Rogers spare cash saved those years on a vet to eat a few innings and maybe be traded again for more prospects at some point?  I see no real downside to a 1 or 2 year deal, and if it is for 'just' $10 mil a year for 3 years it would be well worth it if he is healthy and happy to be here, even if year 3 is a pure write off.  By year 3 Tulo will be off the payroll anyways, so why not?

Because the Jays aren't going to spend $30 million on a 36 yr old vet who could break down at any time, for no purpose other than eating innings on a club that's going to lose 90 games. Happ will be signed by a team that's contending or planning to contend in year one of the deal, not by a rebuilder.

If you are interested in sports in general, you should make sure you see the episode of 60 Minutes that aired today. The 2nd segment was about CTE. They were looking at CTE in people in the military who had been subjected to blasts in combat, but then they also talked about athletes. They mentioned that a doctor at Mt. Sinai hospital in NY had developed a test for CTE in the living. Previously, it was only diagnosed at autopsy. He has already scanned 50 veterans and athletes. The implications for this are huge for sports like football, hockey, and to a lesser extent, baseball and basketball. Athletes may take this test and find out they are developing CTE and decide to retire. What if leagues that are afraid of massive lawsuits require players to be tested? The implications are huge.

Also, another doctor has identified a potential genetic marker that predisposes a person to develop CTE in the brain of former NFL player Aaron Hernandez, who had the highest level of CTE of any player under 30 among all those whose brains have been examined. The implications for this are huge as well. Again, players may choose to be tested to see if they have this marker, which would put them at much greater risk, or leagues could require the testing to be done. As scientific developments like these progress, we may see a dramatically different landscape in the professional sports world in the decades to come.

Happ has been outstanding for the Yankees - 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA and WHIP of 1.007. If he continues somewhat close to that, he's going to get a very good contract indeed. He's already making $13 million a year. I wouldn't be surprised to see his AAV exceed $15 million on the new contract. Probably not something the Jays would want to do during a rebuild. I'd like to see the team add 1 starter, and then go with 2 of SRF/Borucki/Pannone/Gaviglio for the last 2 spots after Sanchez and Stroman. That group gives you 7 guys. They should also add a starter or two who could be available in AAA, rather than have to force feed kids like Romano, Harris, Paulino, Zeuch, etc. in the system who might not yet be ready for an mlb shot, in the case where more than 2 of the mlb starters are injured.

The 40 man roster has more question marks than I've seen in a long time. Counting Tulo, who must be added before the Rule 5, I count 20 guys who could be candidates for buyout/non-tender/DFA/release/outright to AAA, to clear space. The front office no doubt sees some of these 20 guys as definite keepers and won't consider them to be dropped, but they still have a lot of work to do. Fans often talk about making 3 for 1 type trades, but they aren't easy to do. Most other teams are also looking to turn 3 or 4 fringy guys into a better asset.

Yesterday's game was the first I watched most of in a while. Teoscar made a nice catch in foul territory but later missed a groundball to the outfield by trying to bare hand for some reason only to have it roll between his legs and go to the wall.

Randall Grichuk's center field defense didn't impress me either as he broke back two steps on a shallow fly ball, and then had it bounce off his glove as he tried to recover. On another fairly shallow fly ball he threw about 10 feet wide of home plate trying to get a runner coming home.

On the plus side, Pannone looked good after the first inning, Reese McGuire looks really good behind the plate, and Rowdy Tellez had a clutch pinch hit. Also, one of the best things about the 2018 season has been seeing the pride of the parents who are watching their sons play their first big-league games.

They only lose 90 games if the rotation is bad. Which is why you sign a guy like Happ rather than an inning eater who could lose 15 games. You still want to sign guys that could be traded for prospects in July, but it's hard to do that with a starter. How would Lynn look if he was pitching against the Yankees rather than for them? Let's see. One game against the Yankees this year. They had an OPS of 1.300.

Hernandez actually got to the ball too late and tried to bare hand it because it was on his right side.

Or the pride of the parents who are watching their kids play against their home teams.

Another discussion they keep having in the booth is regarding the expended rosters.
For some reasons, some people think it's not good that all those young players are up in September.
Those 11 extra guys on the roster are what's keeping me watching the games.
They say, September is the most important month, so they shouldn't play by different rules.
For teams that are already eliminated, the two important things are looking at young players and losing.
What would the Jays do if the rosters were limited? Dump Estrada and Clippard? Send down guys  who still have options, like Barnes? Put guys on the DL, like Tepera?

No, Hernandez had time to use his glove even if he had to backhand it. Even the announcers couldn't figure out why he tried to bare hand it. It's one thing to misjudge routes or balls hit off the wall but this looked like a Little League play.

They only lose 90 games if the rotation is bad. Which is why you sign a guy like Happ rather than an inning eater who could lose 15 games.

This is not big picture thinking whatsoever.

Let's say, using your "pitcher wins" metric, Happ goes 15-5, rather than some minor league signing(s) going 5-15. So we don't lose 90, we lose 80. And that is absolutely best case scenario for Happ. That 80 wins is worse than useless - doesn't help the present, if anyone cares about making the playoffs, and doesn't help the future, limiting draft pool/position.

If Tulo does have an insurance policy on his contract, then it's possible he's dealt this offseason.

Would they take a marginal prospect in return and kick in $18m of the remaining $36m to get him off the books? They had no interest in reclaiming any of Donaldson's value so why would they with Tulo?

Obviously, someone would still have to see $9m p.a. in potential value from a healthy Tulo. Not sure whether an insurance claim would go 100% to acquiring team, but trade language could probably have terms related to that as well.

I think we are using a 33 year old Happ as a proxy for any reliable better than average middle of the rotation veteran. But you have to look at both sides. Who would sign up to spend the last few productive years of their career on what is likely to be a 90 loss team the next couple of years (and getting their brains beaten in by the AL East teams)? Maybe if you grossly overpaid them - I don’t see Rogers doing that. You just don’t see many of those deals.

I believe it's been discussed before and we had concluded that we're pretty sure Tulo's contract isn't insured. Am I remembering correctly?

If Tulo does have an insurance policy on his contract, then it's possible he's dealt this offseason.

1) Tulo has a full no-trade clause that kicked in after the Rockies' trade

2) I've seen no mention in the media that Tulo's contract is insured. Back in the Beeston and ?JPR days, management did mention that the Jays didn't insure contracts because premiums were too expensive.

3) Who would trade for Tulo when he hasn't seen the field in 18 months, may not be a SS anymore and has a good chance of never playing again? He's untradeable in the offseason. He has to take the field and show he has anything left in his bat and glove, along with being able to play a few months without getting hurt again.

Tulowitzki has a no-trade clause that became active in his contract once he was traded to Toronto.

I guessed the triple trivia answer to be Kevin Millar, and I wasn't that wrong: in his LAST ~4000 career plate appearances, he had 3 triples.. However, as a spritely young lad, he had 12 triples in the other ~1200 AB playing for the Marlins.

It was pretty clear in the reply that Hernandez got his hand down after the ball had passed.
Result with the glove would have been the same.

My big picture thinking goes like this.

The offense is already average and should improve next year.
Hopefully defense improves too, but who knows?
The bullpen should be fine. Giles is alright. They have some decent arms on the 40 now.
So to lose 90 games, the rotation has to be as bad as this year.
It's not a "pitcher wins" metric.
So much more likely if they bring another Garcia and he gets 20+ starts than if they magically bring Happ back. They Yankees will probably be interested in Happ and he might like it there too since he's been their best pitcher.

So I'd prefer Happ, but I'm not hopeful. Anybody else will probably be a late signing at a bargain price.
I'd prefer a bunch of minor league signings.

Totally forgotten that before we had Kevin Pillar, there was a Kevin Millar.
I had to read that twice.

You may be right, Scottt but at this point, who cares? It was an insignificant play in an insignificant season. :)

I like your big picture scottt. K Giles is a good closer. Hopefully 4 other arms will make the pen strong. It would be great to have a strong pen.

Look at Oakland to improve at the trade deadline and after the kept adding very good bullpen arms.

I wonder about Giles's sanity, but it's an aggressive behavior that can work well for a closer.
Let the other teams worry about it.

late to that 2019 SP discussion.

MLB

Stroman
Sanchez
Borucki
Pannone
SRF

AAA

Paulino
Waguespack
Zeuch
Perez
Merryweather

I assume the FO wants all 10 of these guys pitching in MLB or AAA next year, so I'm not sure there's much need to sign any other SP.

Um, but Stroman and Sanchez have shown no ability to be effective starting pitchers going forward?

Stroman and Sanchez I can see being effective, but healthy is a whole other story.  Anyone who counts on Sanchez being 100% in 2019 is playing a fools game.  It could happen, and I could win the lottery.

Well I don't play the lottery, and I don't rely on a few hundred innings worth of previous stats to predict future performance. Stroman has fallen off a cliff and Sanchez can't get past the blister thing. I don't normally gamble, but would anyone take the over on Stroman/Sanchez being worth 3 WAR combined while they're still with the Jays?

Don't think Sanchez has had blister issues this year.

Oh right, the "suitcase-related" injury.

I'm sure there are a dozen witnesses.

At least he didn't have an ATV-related finger injury.

It'd be more believable if he accidentally chopped off one of his fingers while trying to take off his shoes, or got attacked by bees, or took too long to go to the bathroom.

Or had a bad dream and dislocated his finger.

MLB teams with assets they might want to trade have never disclosed ACTUAL injuries unless they're funny and newsworthy. Regular injuries are boring and get covered up by idiot reporting like "he slammed his blister-hand in the car door" kind of stuff.

And if he's really dumb enough to slam his pitching hand in a door, that's the kind of reason you try to trade a player immediately. And you can be sure they're not going to tell their competition all about that kind of stupid.

stroman's peripherals are slightly higher than normal, but not by much. most likely a fully era, though the shoulder injury and blister probably had a part to play.

Sanchez has been thoroughly below average for a while now, but not so bad that he's not an mlb starter.

I will take the over on Sanchez and Stroman in 2019 if they are still Jays.

what do I lose? Face !!!

I will take the over on Sanchez and Stroman in 2019 if they are still Jays.

what do I lose? Face !!!

Nice, bpoz!

Prove me wrong! :)

Ok. Good challenge. Cheers Parker!!

I have faith in Stroman if he's healthy. Sanchez is a different story. He's a risk with health and performance. His numbers in 2017-18 more closely resemble his pre-2016 numbers than his 2016 numbers. I am not convinced he's even a starter long-term, never mind the health issues. He has a lot to prove in 2019.

That is why I want the team to get two starters regardless of team direction because chances are the young SP's will get big league starts anyway (injuries, ineffectiveness, trades, etc).

Stroman is going to have to kind of STFU with his little bitch attitude and sign a couple years worth of team-friendly extension. Sanchez is going to have to not slam his hand in car doors.
Go back in your hole, Parker.  Honestly, to the moderators, this is the sort of comment that gets one banned, no?  I do not want to be exposed to the sort of hate that tosses the word 'bitch' around like this. 

The difference between Pitching for New York Yankees and the Jays is immense for Happ. Better Offence, better Defense and a Solid Bullpen offer him much, much more. Yet he was a mid-Rotation type for the Jays this year and look at him now.

This is a copy of the Baltimore Post I made.

Now look at who's actually having a good year for the Jays' Pitchers this year. How good would they be pitching with better Offense, better Defense and a Solid Bullpen?

All of a sudden, I'm not worried about the Pitching as much. Good Pitching shows up no matter how bad your Team is, always has and always will. Better Offense, better Defense and a Solid Bullpen can make any Pitching, even poor Pitching better, sometimes much better. The Jays don't need great Pitching just better Defense and better Offense.

Go back in your hole, Parker. Honestly, to the moderators, this is the sort of comment that gets one banned, no? I do not want to be exposed to the sort of hate that tosses the word 'bitch' around like this.

Thanks for your contribution, jerjapan. That kind of hateful infective is always refreshing.

I'll only say one thing: if you feel the need to be protected from stuff you don't agree with, the internet is probably not the right place for you.

Don't reproduce, jerjapan. The world needs LESS people like you.

Upon further review, I will retract any address of jerjapan's comments, as much value as they might somehow have. I would actually prefer to apologise for the semantics I chose in my analysis of Stroman's unbelievably unprofessional social media comments resulting from his last arbitration hearing, and comments he has made in social media since then.

I guess I just want my team to only hire professional baseball players.

That's just me.

Also, my apologies for the typo in "invective".

I wonder how many times jerjapan has hit the "Report Abuse" button. aka the Snowflake Button.

"I wonder how many times jerjapan has hit the "Report Abuse" button. aka the Snowflake Button."

Thank you, ugly. So much this.

The "I agree with free speech unless I don't agree with what you're saying" kind of Snowflake Button.

Parker: 20+ times used
Jerjapan: ???

Is there any point to this?

I get the feeling they're not happy unless they're sniping at each other. Reminds me of Sanchez & Stroman, in a way.

aka the Snowflake Button.
Snowflakes, if you really look at them close up are intricate and amazing things. They are truly wondrous. Just putting that out there.

I'm fine with my comments, proud to speak out about hate, and feel the posters here tolerate far too much of it. 

I also sincerely appreciate Parker's attempts to be less offensive in the language Parker uses, and feel the board has been better for a while now.  I'm pretty sure most of us notice this.  Part of this improved civility results from people calling out BS.  Tolerate it, and it festers. 

This is no 'snowflake' moment, a laughably propagandistic term anyway.  I have only ever hit the 'report abuse' button at the urging of the moderators.  I prefer to directly address people who act in a problematic fashion.  I know this board prefers not to address hate, but I refuse not to. 

I shouldn't need to say this, but misogyny is a line too far.  The implicit homophobia is also not cool.  This board - everyone here, myself included - both can and should do better.  Don't like my comments on the subject?  Deal with the hateful BS yourselves, in a better fashion.   I'm happy to shut up and listen to the many wiser posters than me.  If nobody else will call hate out, I will, from now to forever, unless someone decides to ban me.  So if you guys won't call it out, you are stuck with both me and the hate. 

And, sincerely, I would rather talk baseball.  You guys are an insightful bunch.  Please don't limit that insight to the realm of sports.  The 'point to this' hypobole is to improve the discourse, and no, mathesond, I would much, much rather not be the only person calling out hate.  This is not pleasurable for me - in fact, it makes me tremendously sad - but I feel it necessary if I want to preserve my integrity. 

Snowflakes was a term I thought Parker would understand, is all. I'm speaking his language.

Just thought it was funny that he was attacking jer for being offended when we know Parker has abused the Report button as much as anyone.

Myself, I don't use the Report Abuse button.

I thought that was the case Ugly, but I just wanted to clarify. 

And I would much rather never have to hit the abuse button.  Back to baseball.

Alright. Let me clarify - even though this has no bearing on actual baseball analysis. Sorry about that.

I'm fine with my comments, proud to speak out about hate, and feel the posters here tolerate far too much of it.

If I put myself in your shoes, jerjapan, I am offended by the comments you make. But I don't. I don't appreciate the lack of self-reflection or self-awareness you appear to show.

"Go back in your hole, Parker."

One would think that upon your further reflection that this comment would end the argument right now. I'm not sure how anyone in your shoes wouldn't be offended by this. You're fine with your comments and actually say you're PROUD of speaking out against hate. And all I've seen is you spewing hate.

I'm actually NOT offended, though, because I respect differing opinions. We come from different worlds; apparently. Mine disagrees. Yours seems to be the "run to your parents or bosses or admin to try to stifle the people you disagree with." I don't understand how a grown adult would do that, but like I said, we come from different worlds.

I'm pretty sure most of us notice this.

This type of "appeal to authority" fallacy has been the bane of free-thinkers for over two thousand years. You probably didn't notice.

I apologize for using a slur that would offend the LGBTQ (whatever they call themselves these days) but I come from a background where we pay our taxes (the ones that pay your salary, if you have one) and we say what we want, and sometimes what I say might not be comfortable with your ideals, but it would be great if you could at least not be such a goddamn hypocrite.

I suppose this would be more of an appeal to popularity, or a bandwagon fallacy, if jerjapan actually had a bandwagon. Honestly, how many words have been spilled and how much (productive) time has been spilled to argue about my use of the word "bitch" when referring to Marcus Stroman's horrible makeup.

He could at least just be an effective pitcher and keep his mouth shut on social media.

"Just thought it was funny that he was attacking jer for being offended when we know Parker has abused the Report button as much as anyone."

Yeah, I only did that because the admins got mad that I was repeatedly disagreeing with your nonsense statistical manipulation.

Remember that time you quit Batter's Box?

That.

It was an honest revolt against the system.

Don't worry though, it won't happen again. I've been suitably gelded.

Nonsense Parker.  I told you to go back in to your hole because I respond, I kind, to your hateful rhetoric with hateful rhetoric.  If you can't restrain yourself from being obnoxious, hateful and unpleasant - which you apparently can't - then you should feel what it's like to be on the receiving end of it. 

I celebrate and relish free speech.  Once again, you appear alt-right.  the go-to complaint of the alt-right, and the right in general, is that we on the left are somehow censoring you.  I am not.  I am calling you out for being a jerk.  Say what you want, express whatever idea you want.  Just do it without hate and we are all good. 

You didn't notice how the board is better because you are the problem with the board.  I admit, I am guessing at this, but I do assume that many people feel relieved that you are no longer sniping constantly at Ugly, or me, or agreeing with and empowering the other trolls who used to frequent this site.  You don't realize that things are better because you are the problem, and you are the problem because you don't know that you are the problem.  I also believe many people would be relieved if I stopped posting self-righteous comments.  At least my goal is to improve the discourse, and I will happily shut the heck up if nobody posts anything nasty.  Try me.  Everyone will be relieved, in that both of us will be ranting less. 

Did you notice my sincere compliment to you above?  I do feel like you are attempting to be less unpleasant.  Whether this is sincere or the threat of a ban, it is appreciated.  You lose some of that cred, even in your above post - 'whatever they call themselves these days'?  Are you utterly unaware of how hateful that offhanded comment was?  I assume that yes, you have no idea that you are hateful. 

Just to be clear, I am not running to anyone.  I dislike some of your posts and call you out directly, despite the fact that the majority of people here don't like it, and despite the fact that engaging with hate in general, and in this case yours specifically, is severely damaging to my mental health.  In the past five years, my entire family has died or is crippled by severe illness.  Engaging with you is the last thing I want to do, but since nobody else here will call you out, I will, out of a my personal definition of integrity. 

Just to be clear, I do understand the logic and intent of people who choose not to engage in these types of conversations, I do not judge the silent majority for their silence, and I will cease my part of this conversation as of this post.  I invite you to join me in this.