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The end is nigh...

The last home field series opens, with the defending world champs in town. The return of Roberto Osuna! The Gurriel Brothers! The Jays need to win 2 of these last 6 to avoid 90 losses, John Gibbons needs 1 of these games to finish up above .500 as a Blue Jay manager.

The Astros haven't officially clinched the division yet - the Magic Number is 3. And Aaron Sanchez is having an issue with his index finger - that's the one that had the unfortunate encounter with a suitcase - and his turn is being skipped. He's probably done for the year. The Jays have been running through six starters, so everyone just moves up a turn.

Mon 7:05 - Estrada (7-13, 5.57) vs Keuchel (11-11, 3.71)
Tue 7:05 - Gaviglio (3-8, 5.18) vs James (1-0, 2.81)
Wed 4:07 - Reid-Foley (2-4, 5.40) vs Cole (15-5, 2.92)
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Richard S.S. - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#366187) #
Starters needs to avoid big innings and bleeding runs. Offense needs to continually hit. Defense needs more consistency. Bullpen needs to do their job. If all that happens the Jays will win at least one Game.
Mike Green - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#366188) #
Do you call a change-up in a bad location a "Careless Whisper"?
Magpie - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#366189) #
This is Estrada's 28th start this season, and Maile's been his catcher for 18 of them. He's managed 6 QS in 17 starts with Maile (ERA of 5.80, opposition hitting .275/.332/.514). He's worked with Russell Martin just 7 times and has delivered 5 QS (ERA 3.38, opposition hitting .200/.245/.393). Gibby seems to have found the wrong personal catcher.

Don't even ask what happened in the three games Jansen caught. Avert your eyes.
hypobole - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#366190) #
So when we bring Estrada back next year Martin should be his personal catcher. :)
Richard S.S. - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#366191) #
The Jays' competitive period was 2015, 2016, 2017. Say what you will about 2017, but a healthy Aaron Sanchez easily puts them back in the playoffs. That would have made competing for 2018 far more sensible that the excuses they actually used. However, breaking it apart and rebuilding would not work then as the Minors would not be ready until next year.
Richard S.S. - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#366192) #
For what they might end up paying Estrada, couldn't the Jays do better?
hypobole - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#366193) #
How much do you think Estrada will make next year? He might not even get a major league deal.
Mike Green - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#366194) #
Impossible game to be a hitter.  You have no idea what is a strike and what is not. 
Magpie - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#366195) #
He might not even get a major league deal.

Agreed. But presumably Atkins will be looking for some starting pitching this winter. It's hard to see all of three of Borucki, Pannone, and Reid-Foley in the rotation next April.

Borucki actually seems to have emerged as the ace of the staff. Remarkably, no Jays starter has more quality starts than Borucki (he and Estrada each have 11), who made his debut at the end of June. Reid-Foley is a tough case. The team badly needs someone like him, who misses a lot of bats, in the rotation. But Reid-Foley badly needs more time in AAA to, you know, learn how to pitch.
hypobole - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#366196) #
Still have Sanchez and Stroman, to go with Pannone and Borucki. I'd pencil in Gaviglio at 5.

Maybe sign one or two minor league deals with starters, but I'd target someone like a Martin Perez if Texas cuts him loose. More potential upside than a 35 yr old with a balky back. As ugly pointed out earlier though, the Buffalo rotation could be pretty full, even without additions.
Richard S.S. - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#366197) #
It depends on the WC, if it's 85+ games, the Jays could easily compete for this. If on the other hand it's 90+ games they might not. Deciding not to try should not be an Option.
hypobole - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#366198) #
Deciding not to try is the only option.
Jdog - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#366199) #
Jays seem to be in a similar position as the Phillies were to start the 2018 season. Lot of major league ready prospects. If there was ever a time to dole out a long term deal for a quality pitcher now would be the time. Have Donaldson's money off the books with Martin and Tulo soon to expire. Also, a lot of entry level contracts on the team for the next 3 years. Sign Corbin + Happ and  we could be in wild card contention next year.  Rotation Corbin, Happ, Stroman, Sanchez and Borucki with   Pannone your 6th starter and SRF in AAA. If you have Janssen, Guerrero, Borucki, Gurriel, Tellez, Bichette all on entry level contracts you can overpay in the rotation with a back-loaded deal
John Northey - Monday, September 24 2018 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#366200) #
I think the Jays will be a lot better than most think in 2019.  Kids with some experience almost everywhere plus Vlad.  Starting Pitching can't help but be better.

Before today: 5.09 ERA for starters over 156 games with a 382 winning percentage (vs near 600 for the pen).  Ugh.
ERA's over 6 as a starter...
Jaime Garcia, Joe Biagini, Mike Hauschild, Tyler Clippard - 19 starts, 83 1/3 IP 100 H 16 HR 44 BB 70 SO - safe to bet none of them will start for the Jays in 2019.
ERA's in the 5's...
Sam Gaviglio, Sean Reid-Foley, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada - Estrada probably won't be back, Gaviglio in AAA as might be SRF, Stroman having his worst year (I see it like Stieb 1986 - a one shot blip)
ERA's in the 4's...
J.A. Happ, Luis Santos (1 start), Aaron Sanchez - Happ and Santos won't start here in 2019, Sanchez if healthy will be better, if not healthy it won't matter.
ERA"s in the 3's....
Ryan Borucki, Thomas Pannone - both near locks for 2019 now I suspect
ERA of 0
John Axford - 3 IP in his one start.

Happ is the only guy not coming back who might have been nice to have back.  SRF I expect to be a LOT better if he is in the rotation... if not he is back in AAA.

I expect 1 or 2 free agent signings of the old Happ type - guys who are solid 5th starters who can go to the pen or rotation (if in rotation expect a 90 ERA+).  I also expect a few cheap pen guys to be signed.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 01:23 AM EDT (#366201) #
One problem John, J.A. Happ was an older Free Agent, previously traded mid-Season, then became a stud. The Jays pounced and got lucky. Alternately Marco Estrada was an expendable Reliever/Starter that wasn't good enough to keep. Once again, the Jays got lucky as he turned into something special. The rest of Baseball noticed.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 05:03 AM EDT (#366202) #
From previous thread...

"Personally, I prefer looking at trade targets rather than who the team ought to be willing to trade."

I agree but the issue is you don't really know who is available or the cost. For example, one guy I really wanted to go after this winter (and mentioned multiple occasions) was Jed Lowrie but maybe the A's weren't willing to trade him or wanted a top prospect for him. This year, I think the Jays should try to trade Martin (with some cash thrown in) for Julio Teheran as I think it could make sense for both sides from my perspective (Braves replace Suzuki who is FA with Martin and give up Teheran who will be a reliever next season. Jays get rid of Martin to free up logjam at catcher and get pitcher to eat some innings for a year instead of signing one as FA) but maybe the Jays or Braves don't agree or want to go a different route. The problem is that the players the Jays should be going after are not exciting. They are not in a place to be making trades for marquee players or FA splashes. So instead, you try to find players on teams that might not have everyday roles who might be available and could be interesting like Joc Pederson, Yandy Diaz, Ian Happ, etc...but again, I have no idea how teams value these players and what they are asking for them.
scottt - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 07:00 AM EDT (#366203) #
I think the reality is that the Jays will go into the winter meetings with a list of guys to trade to clear the roster and they'll have to take the offers they like best, rather than say trying to acquire this guy or that guy.

There should be some competition for the last rotation spots.
SRF probably needs more time at AAA,  but being there with a team full of future players is not going to feel like being stuck at AAA.

I don't  think Sanchez will ever be healthy. I'm guessing 120 innings.

Glevin - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#366204) #
Small sample sizes are funny. Danny Jansen's numbers are very good and his underlying numbers are pretty much in the area of what you'd expect based on his minor league numbers. Tellez has better numbers but they are obviously fluky (2% walk rate, .444 BABIP). Urena has also had crazy BABIP luck (.414 BABIP) but even with that, he still has only a 94 WRC+ . McKinney has now had over 100 PAs and his numbers are reverting back to closer to where you'd expect them to be. His BABIP is still higher than you'd expect although statcast has his expected numbers to be a bit higher than they actually are. It will be interesting to see what happens now. Does he slide more and look more like a 4th OFer or level out as a decent regular? I think I have some confidence in numbers at around 250 PAs. I feel confident now that Gurriel is a major league player. What kind of player I'm not sure.

I wonder if the Cardinals would trade O'Neill. He's their 4th OFer now and seems to fit what the Jays look for and is a Canadian to boot.
Jevant - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#366205) #
Not sure I'd want to be signing any backloaded deals in rebuilding years, personally. Better to, if anything, front load it, in a year where you don't expect to compete, and then have the money to supplement the team in later years.

That said, I'm probably just a little more pessimistic with the 2019 team than you might be as well. I could see a veteran arm or two to try to flip at the deadline, or if things all break right, compete, but I probably wouldn't be targeting any big money deals this offseason, personally.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#366206) #
When I see Gurriel, I get a similar feeling that I had for Wilfredo Cordero when he was starting his career with the Expos. I worried that Cordero would be a "tweener": not enough glove for the middle infield and not enough bat for the outfield.

Now, Cordero may not be a great comp for Gurriel, he's just who came to mind. Cordero was actually much younger when starting his career and had a better, if not great, batting eye. He peaked young and then hung on as a replacement level player for a long, long time, largely because he looked like more of a player than he really was.

I don't know what Gurriel's fate will be. I really don't think shortstop will be his thing. He's athletic, sure, but the defensive bar for shortstop is very high. He also looked kind of awkward at second base.

Maybe today's short benches are going to spawn a number of Marwin Gonzalez types and maybe that will be Gurriel's fate. Playing as much as the need dictates, but not technically the first choice at any one position.

I hope Gurriel plays winter ball. He could use the reps and the Jays could maybe push for him to develop some outfield skills.

Jonny German - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#366207) #
I don't buy into the narrative that the Jays have a 40-man roster crunch coming. As I see it, they have 22 "major league" guys that are obviously on it.

C Russell Martin
C Luke Maile
C Danny Jansen
1B Justin Smoak
SS Aledmys Diaz
SS Troy Tulowitzki
Ut Brandon Drury
Ut Lourdes Gurriel
OF Kevin Pillar
OF Teoscar Hernández
OF Randal Grichuk
OF Billy McKinney
DH Kendrys Morales
SP Marcus Stroman
SP Ryan Borucki
SP Aaron Sanchez
SP Sean Reid-Foley
SP Thomas Pannone
RP Ken Giles
RP Ryan Tepera
RP David Paulino
RP Tim Mayza

Then there's 5 more "established" guys that you don't cut for no good reason, but are very fungible:

2B Devon Travis
SP Sam Gaviglio
RP Joe Biagini
RP Danny Barnes
RP Jake Petricka

That leaves 13 spots for prospects. I'd protect these:

C Reese McGuire
1B Rowdy Tellez
SS Richard Urena
OF Anthony Alford
OF Dalton Pompey
OF Dwight Smith
OF Forrest Wall
OF Harold Ramirez
SP Patrick Murphy
SP Yennsy Diaz
SP Hector Perez
RP Justin Shafer
RP Travis Bergen

The most notable guys I can think of who will then be exposed to the Rule V draft are these:

C Max Pentecost
SS Kevin Vicuna
OF Jonathan Davis
SP Mike Hauschild
SP Brandon Cumpton
SP Jon Harris
SP Jordan Romano
SP Jacob Waguespack
RP Luis Santos
RP Conor Fisk
RP Angel Perdomo
RP Corey Copping

I really can't see any of them being stashed on a big league roster for 2019 AND going on to having a significant MLB career. Am I wrong? Is there someone else that I'm missing?


- I didn't forget Yangervis Solarte. I see no reason to pick up his option.

- I've got Dalton Pompey protected, but it seems likely that management is done with him. So that's 1 more spot for the 27-year-old middle relief prospect of your choice. Call him Merryweather, I guess.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#366208) #
Teheran doesn't have much value at all to the Jays because of his contract status.  He's on for $11.17M next year (as a reliever) with a team option for $12M in 2020.  At this point, the 2020 option doesn't look particularly valuable. A pitcher like Teheran who wasn't hitting free agency until 2022 would be interesting.

I find Gurriel more interesting as a hitter than as a fielder.  He's got the spark to hit the ball 450 to centerfield, and the dexterity to steer it into right field or drive it that way.  He's turning 25 in two weeks, and the question in my mind is whether he can learn to hit. Yogi said that 90% of pitching is half mental; the corollary is that 30% of hitting is all mental. 
Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#366209) #
Small sample sizes are funny.

I agree. While we know, intellectually, to not make too much of them, we do anyway. Our brains can't help themselves. And we never learn!

The Jays have three SSS stars in recent memory:

  • Josh Phelps, 24, 138 OPS+
  • Brett Lawrie, 21, 153 OPS+
  • Randy Ruiz, 31, 162 OPS+

Phelps's career started around the same time this web site did. People were sure he was the real deal. Absolutely certain.

Brett Lawrie had the advantage of being very young to further give hope to the career that lay ahead. And people insisted on talking about his rookie year, not terribly concerned that it amounted to all of 150 AB.

Even Randy Ruiz found a following. Sure he's old, but he's figured it out. He hadn't. I remember at the time Hawk Harrelson, who knew Ruiz personally for some reason (perhaps he and his son were friends), guaranteed all who would listen that this was a bonafide 25-30 HR guy and that all he needed was a chance. Now, Harrelson is Harrelson, a disqualifier already. And he had a personal bias. But still. We just can't help ourselves.

None of this is to say that Rowdy Tellez, 23, 193 OPS+, will necessarily be another data point in this conversation. I hope he turns into something, I really do. And he certainly could. There are precious few certainties in baseball. But we all need to take a deep breath.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#366210) #
That's a good list, Jonny.  It would be nice to protect Copping and Perdomo, and that might be easily doable.  It's likely that the Jays will not protect Pompey (and that Cleveland will protect Merryweather).  Shafer has an elbow injury now, and given his age and record prior to 2018, I'm not really worried that some team would pick him. 

I don't agree that Gaviglio is very fungible, especially as compared with some of the other names on the "established" list.  Used correctly (6-12 batters per outing), I think that he would give you 100 good innings at a bargain price  in the Dennis Lamp role for several years.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#366211) #
"Teheran doesn't have much value at all to the Jays because of his contract status. "

He doesn't have much value to anyone but he has more value to the Jays than Russell Martin. You aren't getting anything of real value for Martin even if you pay the entire $20M. It's not a matter of wanting Teheran it's just trying to spread the resources out rather than having 4 catchers vying for time and going to sign a free agent starter.

Interesting list Jonny. I think the Jays definitely protect Copping. He's the type of guy that would almost certainly get taken because you can easily hide a middle reliever all year. Pompey is gone and Merryweather is for sure going to be protected so you'd need one more person off the list I think. Shafer maybe? Doesn't strike out enough guys as a reliever to be interesting. I agree that the 40 man isn't a big deal. The roster crunch is more about playing time especially in the IF. For example, the Jays have 4 catchers who could all be in the majors right now. They have 3 1B/DH. They have Drury, Travis, Gurriel, Vlad, Diaz, and Tulo for 3 or 4 spots. That's the crunch. That's about 13 players for 7 roster spots (with Solarte gone and not including Urena). Something has to give there.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#366212) #
I agree, Chuck.  But when the alternative is Kendrys Morales (35) and his 2017-18 sample size of 1077 PAs and OPS+ of 103, and a contract expiring in 2019, it seems pretty clear to me who should get the opportunity.  I don't know if Rowdy Tellez can clear that low bar of 103, but I'd like to see the club giving him a chance to do that in 2019. 

For what it's worth, Statcast has Morales and Tellez as having the two top expected wOBA on the club.  Morales has fallen way short of his expected wOBA each of the last 3 years (and somewhat short in 2015).  Tellez has beaten his expected wOBA by 80 points; that is pretty clearly not sustainable but if he can match it (presumably with more walks and less power than he has shown to date), he'll have a good career.  The Jays have nothing to lose by letting him try.

Speaking of sample size variations, it's been hard to watch Teoscar Hernandez' struggles.  He obviously gives it all he can and tries to retain good humour.  And if there is one player who hasn't had the benefit of the close call (and not so close call) this year, it would be him.  I don't quite understand why, but I guess it's a matter of being a rookie who will swing and miss.  There are a couple of veteran players who have had much more generous strike zone calls on average. 

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#366213) #
I think that Martin has value to the Jays.  I want him around in some capacity with the young catchers and the young pitchers.  Obviously if another team has a piece that is genuinely attractive to the Blue Jays and wants Martin, then you have to think about it.  A Martin for Teheran trade would be primarily about lopping off some salary from the (already modest) payroll. 
Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#366214) #
it seems pretty clear to me who should get the opportunity.

I agree. The team should see what it has in Tellez. Cutting Morales loose with 2 years left on his contract was likely unpalatable. But with just one year left...maybe?

Ryan Day - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#366215) #
Surely the most notable Small Sample Size Star in Jays history would be Jose Bautista's 125 PAs of 150 OPS+ in September of 2009.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#366216) #
I love rowdy more than anyone but even I wouldn't be upset to see him start the year in AAA.
Jevant - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#366217) #
May as well hang onto Morales at this point, and deal him at the next trade deadline to an NL club who needs a pinch hitter for the playoffs. Cover the rest of his salary at that point and get a Copping/Waguespeck type prospect back.
Jevant - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#366218) #
Agreed. No reason not to, unless you find a taker for Smoak (which I doubt, considering he cleared waivers). In a rebuilding year, may as well make people force their way onto the roster.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#366219) #
to guard against small sample I like looking at the regressed projections.

as of now:

3B Vladdy 128wrc+
1B Smoak 119
DH Morales 110
RF Grichuk 108
SS Tulo 102
C Martin 101
2B Diaz 100
LF Teoscar 95
CF Pillar 91

UT Solarte 99 ----- Tellez 97 ---- Drury 88 ----- Biggio 84
OF McKinney 94 - Smith 89 --- Pompey 80 -- Alford 72
IF Travis 97 ------- Bichette 91 -- Gurriel 88 --- Urena 65
C Jansen 97 ------ McGuire 73 -- Maile 67
hypobole - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#366220) #
The projections show OK hitting. But our defence and baserunning isn't going to do a complete turnaround. The total package will still be bottom half. Add in the ton of question marks on the pitching side and it should be clear the Jays won't be aggressive in Free Agency this offseason, nor should they be. FO has to make smart moves, not big moves.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#366221) #
I think the Jays will definitely protect Waguespack and Merryweather. Copping is more borderline to me but I could see him being protected over Shafer. Pompey is most likely gone.
AWeb - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#366222) #
Morales is not going to be traded to an NL team looking for a pinch hitter for the playoffs next year. Every NL team in contention this year already has a similar player available to them on the bench, it's part of why a team would contend in the first place. Colorado has Matt Holliday, resurrected from the dead, providing better value in a limited role.

An OPS+ of 113 isn't that rare, and he's already 35 years old, so this year is basically the best case for him. There are some dreadful 1B/DH numbers in the AL out there, so maybe a fringe-y contender might want to pick him up for something, but you don't roster Morales for 5 months next year hoping he's worth a A-ball left fielder, or something like that. If Morales is worth anything at all, you'll get more trading him in November than you will next July. I'd call Baltimore - Morales is 3-4 wins better than their current 1B...

Part of front offices getting smarter in the past decade has been fewer and fewer deadline trades involving real prospects for anything short of really good players.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#366223) #
"I think the Jays will definitely protect Waguespack"

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#366224) #
The projections show OK hitting. But our defence and baserunning isn't going to do a complete turnaround. The total package will still be bottom half. Add in the ton of question marks on the pitching side and it should be clear the Jays won't be aggressive in Free Agency this offseason, nor should they be. FO has to make smart moves, not big moves.

Smart, big moves would be OK too.  The equivalent of Junior Felix for the (pitching or middle infield) equivalent of Devon White would work for me.  Incidentally, the OF defence of McKinney, Pillar and Grichuk is actually pretty good.  The defence will be quite a bit better in 2019 just by subtraction unless they try to make Tellez a first baseman. 

I don't see 1440 innings among the pitchers.  I see about 1100 (and that is pretty optimistic- 160 for Stroman, Borucki and Pannone, 80 for Sanchez and SRF and 100 for Gaviglio, and 360 for Giles, Tepera, Paulino, Mayza, Barnes and Biagini). 

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#366225) #
Jackson McClelland is a name that should be considered for the 40-man... he can hit 100 mph (on minor league radars). He's the kind of player that gets snapped up.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#366226) #
Ryan Borucki on his changeup
Thomas - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#366227) #
I understood that the Jays would be acquiring Merryweather before the Rule V draft and that the club would need to protect him.

The only names that I can think of missing from Jonny's list are Rhiner Cruz, Mark Leiter and Taylor Guerreri. I don't think any of them will be protected, but I believe the Jays have control over all three. Cruz is on the DL and will have to come off it. I think Leiter and Guerreri will be removed, as well.

The only other name I can think of who may be protected is Jordan Romano, although I think the Jays will leave him exposed and I think he would go unselected.

I'm not convinced the Jays will protect Dwight Smith. I think the club views him as a tweener, who doesn't have the bat for a corner outfield position and doesn't have the defensive ability to be a center fielder or a good fourth outfielder on a team that often runs a short bench.

Like Jonny, I think the idea that Jays have a 40-man crunch is somewhat overstated.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#366228) #
That's a really interesting article on developing a changeup, hypobole. Thanks.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#366229) #

Waguespack is very close to the bigs (easy to hide in the pen for a year), has solid underlying numbers (K’s and GB’s) and Atkins specifically mentioned his Trackman data looking intriguing. I think they are higher on him than some might think, but just a guess on my part.
Jonny German - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#366230) #
You’re probably right about Shafer, Mike. I actually made that list a couple weeks ago, before he got hurt.

You’re right, Thomas, I forgot about Cruz and Leiter and Guerreri. And I agree they’re not guys to be concerned about.

Re: Waguespack and his ilk: I think it’s bad roster management to put a lot of effort into hanging on to them. Collect some, sure, 1 in 10 probably gives you a good season or 2 of relief pitching. But if there’s any kind of 40-man crunch, out they go. The next one is probably already on your double-A roster.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#366231) #
Wague's stats look solid. I'd keep him.

AAA: 92.2ip, 20.2k%, 7.5b%, 5.05era, 3.61fip, 3.60xfip
AA: 66.1ip, 22.1k%, 10.7b%, 3.80era, 3.26fip, 3.75xfip
A+: 68.1ip, 25.3k%, 8.3b%, 3.29era, 2.89fip, 3.12xfip
A: 71.2ip, 22.7k%, 9.2b%, 3.52era, 2.91fip, 3.51xfip

The ERA spiked in AAA, and it might be because a lack of stuff that makes him homer-prone, but as of now I'd look at that AAA ERA as a bit of a fluke outlier.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#366232) #
Jays SP by xFIP-

Stroman 91
Gaviglio 97
R-Foley 105
Borucki 107
Biagini 115
Sanchez 118
Garcia 118
Estrada 137
Pannone 143
bpoz - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#366233) #
I agree with your thought "AND have a significant MLB career".

Nigel - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#366234) #
40-man roster crunches are almost always overstated on mediocre to bad teams. By definition. Bad teams have a vast number of mediocre to bad players on the 25 man roster. If the Jays end up having a crunch it will be because the front office has elected to keep some major league players (like Morales) on the 40 man even though they do very little to help the team, now or in the future.
Jevant - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#366235) #
I would be surprised, personally, if any of the guys that have been acquired at this deadline are left off the 40 man or exposed to Rule 5. I'd probably start with including all of those guys on any list, and work from there. That's not to say that that is what any of us would do, but I'd be shocked if the organization went to the effort to acquire someone in July/August, and then didn't bother to protect on the 40 in the offseason.
Jevant - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#366236) #
My point was not to suggest anything of real value, simply a dart throw (which is how I view Copping and Waguespeck). It's an interesting thought to consider trying to deal him in November instead, perhaps there's something to that.

I would, however, probably disagree that you don't roster Morales for 5 months next year hoping he's worth an A-ball LF. You roster him since you want to keep a couple vets around, you are paying him anyways, and he's not going to prevent you from accomplishing what you want to accomplish next year. And if that ends up simply being dead money for the rest of the contract, so be it. I don't really sense that Morales is blocking anyone, unless the desire is to let Teoscar be a full time DH next year.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#366237) #
The 2018 Blue Jays have posted the 8th ever poorest DRS recorded in 16 years.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#366238) #
To Chuck's point - this front office, to date, has shown a massive blind spot on fielding anything resembling a decent defensive squad. Its a real problem that has substantively impacted run prevention. To the point where I have real questions about how one goes about evaluating the current pitching staff. Neither Tellez nor Hernandez have shown anything resembling competence in the field but both appear to have interesting bats. I would far rather see one of them (or in a time share) take the DH AB's next year rather than rely on the nebulous benefits of Morales' veteraness.
Jevant - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#366239) #
Osuna agrees to a peace bond. Crown withdraws assault charge.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#366240) #
Maybe some of the legal eagles around here can offer an explanation of what the peace bond means (above and beyond what I can Google). Promising to be well-behaved moving forward sure seems like an admission that you haven't been well-behaved in the past. And if your lawyer says you are remorseful, you must be remorseful about something. It sure feels like Osuna is getting away with something here, at least to a layman like me.
Thomas - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#366241) #
It's my understanding that the parties agreed to a peace bond because the woman Osuna assaulted (or is alleged to have assaulted) was visiting from Mexico at the time and refused to return for a criminal trial. Accordingly, the Crown had a very low chance of securing a conviction without the complainant testifying.

There's no admission of guilt in a peace bond, but it's a series of conditions that must be adhered to. Osuna must meet those conditions, and avoid any future criminal charges in Ontario, during the one year of the peace bond. I imagine that Osuna's peace bond includes a no-contact order with the complainant. The peace bond does not prevent him from entering/traveling to and from the US.

Osuna likely agreed to the peace bond as it included conditions that are not onerous to meet. Even though the Crown's odds of convicting Osuna were low, it avoided the hassle and negative publicity that would have resulted from a criminal trial on the charges.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#366242) #
For Teams on a Budget, like the Jays (even though it's high), there are certain things they do not do. Like buying out contracts. It's very hard to explain to Ownership why the Jays are paying that Player to play for another Team. There must be equitable value returning to make any move.

Russell Martin will stay on the Team, that's $20.0 Million that's going nowhere. Unless he asks to be traded, the Jays won't. Kendrys Morales will stay on the Team, that's $12.0 Million that's not going anywhere. He's actually been better this year and still not tradable. Troy Tulowitzki will stay on this Team, that's $38.0 Million that's going nowhere. He decides his future. Marco Estrada will be a Free Agent, but it's like any savings disappear in Arby raises. That's at least $65.0 Million locked in for next year for limited gain.
rpriske - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#366243) #
I am so glad the Jays managed to get rid of him.

He is the new Jose Reyes. It is pretty clear that everyone involved knows he is guilty but would be unable to convict.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#366244) #
The only glimmer of hope I see for a Morales release is the FO cutting bait Garcia at the end of August.
PeterG - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#366245) #
You cannot ever be successful if you will not buy out a contract when necessary. I don't think that Martin or Tulo will start 2019 season with the Jays. I expect Martin to be traded with 15 mil eaten. Tulo will either retire or be released with contract eaten. He has said if he can't be starting SS he will pack his bags and go home. What are the chances he can win starting job? Slim to none imo.

As for Morales, I expect him to remain in TO for 2019.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#366246) #
If the Jays have a healthy and effective Aaron Sanchez, they make the Playoffs. If not, they may not.
If the Jays have a #1 Starter as defined above, they make the Playoffs. If, not, they may not.
The Pitching Staff will be good enough but if they must be better, that's when problems arise.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#366247) #
Hybobole - I hope you are right. However, I think Morales is most likely to stay on the roster for payroll optics. The optics of Rogers cutting the everyday line-up payroll too drastically (say below $100m) would be pretty awful. They will have some difficulty getting to any kind of optically acceptable payroll if they cut Morales. Even with Morales its going to be a struggle.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#366248) #
I get a similar feeling that I had for Wilfredo Cordero

For some reason that immediately brought Juan Samuel to my mind. You remember him - he looked like a Hall of Famer for a year or two there, but he never could find a defensive position he could handle and his bat regressed to replacement level.
jerjapan - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#366249) #
Jose Fernandez probably belongs in the conversation around the 40 man and the rule v draft as well - I get the sense the org has viewed him as a sleeper for a while now, as a lefty reliever with a big FB.  My only real worry is that the org prioritizes the new trade acquisitions - many who were likely available because of their rule v eligibility - and protects them over the likes of, say, Dalton Pompey.  Did his run-in with Meacham cost him a September call-up or was the FO already done with him?
I assume they will leave several 40 man spots open for FAs and waiver claims though.  Ultimately, a lot of decisions with the fringey guys will likely come down to options.
And while I could see us parting ways with Tulo, or even Morales mid-season, I can't see this conservative FO taking the PR hit of dumping Martin, the Canadian and the best - or at least the biggest - FA signing by the Jays this millenia. 
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#366250) #
As long as Rogers owns the Jays, Optics will be the deciding principle they follow. Splitting the Team and Stadium off into their own Entity/Department/Thingy/Division might lessen this quite a bit, but Optics will still control most decisions.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#366251) #
I thought of Juan Samuel too.  And Billy Hamilton.  The Reds moved Hamilton to centerfield, and I believe that if the Phillies had done the same with Samuel at age 22, he would have had a good career.  Tim Raines was a second baseman, and  Hank Aaron was a shortstop. 

I suppose that Gurriel has the range and arm to be a right-fielder.  What he seems to be missing is the instinctive first step and the fine work with the glove, both which are so important for infielders. 
Glevin - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#366252) #
“I would, however, probably disagree that you don't roster Morales for 5 months next year hoping he's worth an A-ball LF. You roster him since you want to keep a couple vets around, you are paying him anyways, and he's not going to prevent you from accomplishing what you want to accomplish next year. And if that ends up simply being dead money for the rest of the contract, so be it. I don't really sense that Morales is blocking anyone, unless the desire is to let Teoscar be a full time DH next year.”

Agree completely. Morales could be cut but there are much bigger issues with the roster, if Tellez starts the year in AAA and is forcing his way up, then it makes sense to move on from Morales. Otherwise, there’s not much point. The Jays are not going to want to turn young players into DHs. As Brutal as Hernandez has been, I am sure the team will try him in the field more. He has the physical skills to succeed so they should push it a bit even if it painful to watch. I’d be surprised if he’s ever not a bad fielder though, . Tellez sure looks like a DH but if he can stay at first, he will have much more value, This is also what rebuilding is about. Letting guys work through bad play to try to become better and not worrying about the wins but thinking long term. I’d much rather buyout Tulo who is blocking people or pay down Martin’s contract to trade him elsewhere (also blocking people and iI hope he’d get to play somewhere which he still can do at a decent level,)
hypobole - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#366253) #
Sanchez undergoes finger surgery - Atkins hopeful of a full spring training (per Ben N-S)

Gurriel Grade 2 hamstring strain shuts him down for the rest of this season, per Shi. Might put a crimp in thoughts of winter ball?
Chuck - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#366254) #
Jonathan Davis gets starts but Alford doesn't. Odd.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#366255) #
I’d much rather buyout Tulo who is blocking people or pay down Martin’s contract to trade him elsewhere

I agree about Tulowitzki - although he's only blocking people if he's actually able to play.

I don't share the enthusiasm to dump Martin. You've got to pay him anyway, he's a league average hitter for his position (even this year) and the best defensive catcher you've got. He's also by the best handler of pitchers on the team. This last item seems like a big freaking deal if you plan to have a bunch of kids in your rotation next year who've never pitched a full season in the majors. I think there's an awful lot Jansen can learn about the job from sharing it for a year with a guy who's done it really well.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#366256) #
Martin could start for many teams in the league. including some contenders.

IF we eat salary he should have trade value. though of course we're doing our best to kill it.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#366257) #
I have no particular enthusiasm for dumping Martin either but it’s something that likely needs to be done. Jansen is the guy, McGuire looks like a capable backup and Maile is a major leaguer. You can’t go with three catchers and you really don’t want Martin taking an IF spot. The Jays could trade Maile instead and I’d be fine with that as well although you weaken the team depth in the mid term for that. I think for Martin as well, he’d probably be happy to be traded. Plenty of time to play mentor role after you’ve retired. He’s been a great sport about it this year, but he thinks (with reason) that he can still play regularly,
Nigel - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#366258) #
Magpie - I agree 100% about Martin.

This organization has to start throwing a few bones at their young pitchers and play some position players who can actually play defence. Its one thing to stretch things and play JD Martinez in the field as the Sox have done on occasion this year. His bat forgives many fielding sins. As his almost zero WAR in two years attests, there is literally zero point to forcing a Hernandez onto the field to get Morales' bat into the line-up.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#366259) #
It's the young pitchers that's the big thing for me. They're going to need all the help they can get and it seems unfair to ask rookies to provide that help. My first impression of Jansen is that he's a J.P. Arencibia type, albeit Jansen may actually turn out to be a good hitter. But the jury is still out on his ability to run a game. And while I like the way McGuire looks behind the plate, his bat needs more work - more than he'll get as a major league backup.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#366260) #
Injuries cause other injuries. People try to recoup from other players injuries and produce more than they can or even should. This causes unnecessary injuries. Players are already pushing as much as they can just to be here, trying to get more is like trying to get blood from a stone. Either something needs to be said about just playing your game or the Jays need much better replacements.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#366261) #
Aledmys Diaz has had a fine season as the Jays' starting shortstop, especially considering that he was out for a while with an injury. Otherwise he would be right around the middle of the pack of big-league shortstops in terms of WAR, probably with around 2+ WAR (he's was at 1.7 entering tonight's game, and he's 1/1 so far with his 26th double). That's a great return for essentially a non-prospect in JB Woodman.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#366262) #
My initial thought was that they would use Martin as a mentor to Jansen and trade Maile. However, after sitting him out for almost all of September, I think it's clear now that Martin is on the way out. Low batting average aside, he can still help a contender. The Jays obviously need to move a catcher (four on the 40 man) and Martin probably does not want to be play back-up when he feels he has something left in the tank. Might be a mutually beneficial move to trade him (doing him a favor + clearing a spot for Jansen to start), although they'll have to eat up salary.

Tulo is the much more difficult situation. He hasn't played in a year and a half, and the last time he did play he was replacement level. He will have 2/38 left on his deal. I think Tulo's played his last game in Toronto, but have no idea how they can logically move on without dumping him (which seems unlike Shapiro/Rogers to do that). Maybe Tulo to Arizona for Tomas + a lottery ticket prospect in the low minors? Tomas is awful but he won't take up a 40 man roster spot and it saves the team about $6M over two years. That's the only horrendous contract on a team that might actually have a use for Tulo that I can think of.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#366263) #
I think you need to play Tulo and see what you can get out of him. If nothing then move on. If he's above replacement level then you keep him -obviously.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#366264) #
The only reason to play Tulo is to keep Tulo and one poster happy.
lexomatic - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#366265) #
If Tulo is healthy he probably helps the team. I do t think that's likely. If hea said hell just go home if he can't start at ss wouldn't the team just put him o  the restricted list? Better than buying him out.
Check the BP article from 2010 about it. Can't post links from phone I think.
lexomatic - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#366266) #
Sorry disqualified list is for players who reports but  doesn't play.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 25 2018 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#366267) #
Vladimir Guerrero will be up in 2019 when it's time. Who wields the big scary bat following him?
jerjapan - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#366268) #
The only reason to play Tulo is to keep Tulo and one poster happy.
???  I assume a lot of us would be happy to see Tulo make it back.  It's not impossible, and these guys are human beings.  why dump them and fritter away the goodwill of the players? and the fans?  to save dollars for internet posters when we aren't contending anyway?  so we don't block the development of Brandon Drury and Richard Urena? 

I'm being intentionally provocative on purpose, but come on, this horse is dead.  Tulo and Martin aren't going anywhere, and I'll buy you a beer if I'm wrong.  
uglyone - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#366269) #
the truth is that the only reason not to play tulo would be to further certain posters' Anthopolous grudge.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 03:10 AM EDT (#366270) #
"the truth is that the only reason not to play tulo would be to further certain posters' Anthopolous grudge."

That's nonsense.

WAR last 2 seasons with age in 2019

Tulo- 0.1 WAR. 34 YO
Diaz-2 WAR, 28 YO
Gurriel- 0.7 WAR (in half of 1 year) 24 YO.

Why would a rebuilding club play their oldest and worst option? Diaz, for example, has been better than Tulo in 3 straight years and is under team control until 2023. Why would you play Tulo over him?

Vulg - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 03:11 AM EDT (#366271) #
The Giants had a clutch (for the Jays!) extra-innings win tonight, which nudges them 2 games out of harms way insofar as that 9th draft slot goes. Just need the Twinkies to pick up another win or two and we should be home free!

It's the little things.
grjas - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 05:09 AM EDT (#366272) #
The challenge with Tulo is he has two years remaining on his contract. If the Jays are truly building towards 2020 and 2021, you need the next SS to be building experience some time in the next two years, as something more than a backup.
scottt - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 06:12 AM EDT (#366273) #
Bichette is still a year away. There is still time for Tulo to come and show what he got left.
scottt - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 06:15 AM EDT (#366274) #
The Braves have the 9th pick  because AA didn't sign is first rounder. The Jays are currently holding on to the 10th pick and around 4.5M in draft money.
scottt - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 06:19 AM EDT (#366275) #
Martin is still a huge PR guy for the Quebec TV market. It would be weird to play those last spring games in Montreal without him. If Maile has no value now, he'll never have any and McGuire is better defensively and offensively.
scottt - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 06:26 AM EDT (#366276) #
I think guys that have been recently acquired but are not ready could be left off the list.
Harder to do with the pitchers.

Guys that are already on the 40 roster could be lost on waivers if outrighted, it's not just a matter of protecting from the draft.
Jose Fernandez for example. Guerrieri is a tougher call.

They need to offload a catcher, a couple of infielders and an outfielder from the 25 roster.
That includes Pompey since he's out of options.

scottt - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#366277) #
Alford hasn't played in a while now. Wasn't he on the DL in September?
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#366278) #
If Tulo is healthy at the start of next season he'll be playing shortstop, not another position or sitting on the bench. A player of his stature will be given every opportunity to succeed again regardless if there are younger, cheaper options. I'm not saying this as a big Tulo supporter, but that's just how sports work.

Tulo is a very hard worker but also proud,too. If he can't perform any more he'll quit. Whoever the new manager is, he's going to have a delicate job giving the returning, declining vet and the younger, maybe better players adequate playing time.

Also, after seeing Solarte's performance the last month or so, why is he still getting at bats?
Chuck - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#366279) #
If he can't perform any more he'll quit.

With 38M still coming his way, I'll have to see that to believe it.

bpoz - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#366280) #
Good one Chuck.

I guess we are in an audition/evaluation phase right now. The FO will have meetings once the season ends to flesh out a plan for this off season.

We don't know what type of team they want to build. At the moment team defense is probably a big topic.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#366281) #
"but also proud,too. If he can't perform any more he'll quit."

There must be very few proud baseball players, because the list of those that walked away from multi-millions simply because they couldn't perform is pretty well nil.

I assume, rightly or wrongly, Russ Martin has pride. He's still an above average catcher, maybe well above average. He seems to have accepted the fact the Jays are looking to the future. He hasn't quit and hasn't whined publicly.

Highly doubt Tulo is going anywhere, but he should not be the starting SS for the Jays next year or the year after. Lifetime achievement awards like Pujols is receiving in LA keeps the players pride intact, but does little to help the team in the future, and in Pujols case, in the present either.

James Shields had a nice bounceback season this year. Now he wasn't blocking anyone, but even so, what Shields did this year really was zero help to the future contention of the White Sox.

A cynic might say Tulo knows it would be best for the team to play the younger guys who may be the future, his ideal role for the team's future would be as a multi-positional backup/mentor and his comments are merely an attempt to force the FO's hand into simply eating his contract and releasing him.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#366282) #
the list of those that walked away from multi-millions simply because they couldn't perform is pretty well nil.

There have been a few who walked away from the millions while they could still perform. David Ortiz, Mike Mussina, Mark Buehrle all left the game after posting very impressive final seasons on their BB-ref page. Of course, that same page also tells you that each man had already earned well over 100 million dollars playing baseball.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#366283) #
Dave Steib may have walked away too soon as well.
Gerry - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#366284) #
Jays to announce today that Gibby wont be back.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#366285) #
David Ortiz, Mike Mussina, Mark Buehrle all left the game

Magpie, don't think any of those walked away while still having a contract in place. I know Adam Laroche did after the White Sox limited the time he could spend in the clubhouse with his son. Gil Meche when he didn't want to go through another grueling rehab. Can't think of any others.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#366286) #
"Why would you play Tulo over him? "

because, simply, tulo is most likely better than him.
Cracka - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#366287) #
I think that the FO has handed the Gibby situation in a very respectful and non-distracting way. It's been no secret that he won't be back in 2019 and there's been ample time for the press to write long eulogies about him. I think this is much, much better than just firing with a few games to go like the Rangers just did to Jeff Bannister.

BUT, the Rangers now have a head start on interviewing potential managerial candidates. And maybe that's why the team is officially announcing Gibby's departure today...
rpriske - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#366288) #
I think if Tulo can't play he will 'quit'. Not for those saying he won't walk away from $38m, I agree, because in this case, 'quitting' will just be going on the DL for the last two years of the contract.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#366289) #
Tulo will be 34 next season, hasn't played in a year and a half, and had a 79 wRC+/0 WAR the last time he did play. The chances of him being better than Diaz next season are not very high. Regardless, even if he bounced back to become a 2 WAR player, who cares? He won't be apart of the next Jays playoff team, and a 2 WAR SS in his mid-30's with a huge contract won't get anything back in a trade either. There is literally no upside to playing him, and that's assuming he's actually a good/solid player next season.

When Gary Sanchez was ready, the Yankees traded McCann to the Astros and ate up some salary. They traded Beltran when Judge was ready. They traded Headley and put in Andujar. Etc, etc. The Jays are at a point now where they are finally starting to have prospects come up. Martin being moved for Jansen, and Tulo being moved for Gurriel/Bichette are logical decisions even if they have to take a hit with the returns/eat up some money.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#366290) #
There is obviously upside in playing him, if he's healthy.

Not sure what would motivate someone to deny that.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#366291) #
I agree with those who said he won't turn his back on the money. I meant that Tulo is too proud to not be a starter, and won't be a bench warmer. If he feels himself that he lost it, he won't hang around just for the money. Like rpriske said, he would go on the DL for the remainder of his contract.

Colby Rasmus walked away from the game twice so I'd guess he left a few million on the table.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#366292) #
What ever is done if anything with Martin and Tulo, I hope it is done by ST. If not then by the end of ST. I think there is a chance that they are both still here.

I hope a new manager is in place a week or 2 after the playoffs end.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#366293) #
""Why would you play Tulo over him? "

because, simply, tulo is most likely better than him."

lol. Based on what? Where is your war/650 calculation? War last 2 seasons? War last 3 seasons? Do statistics go out the window every time they are mildly inconvenient? Diaz has been better than Tulowitzki for 3 years. Add to that that he's in his prime and Tulo is on the decline (best case scenario. He might just be done). Add to that that Diaz is perfectly willing to move around the diamond if needed. Add to that that Diaz is under contract for 4 more years and Tulo only 2. Why would you play a worse, older player who has no chance of being a long-term piece and no chance of being a trade chip?

So you keep Martin and Tulo. That means the Jays only have 4 players for 4 positions in the IF. Jansen and Smoak for sure. Which means three of Vlad, Gurriel, Maile, Diaz, and Drury aren't on the team (That's already getting rid of Solarte and Travis and McGuire in the minors). Is the value of keeping Martin around for a year greater than having a good backup catcher long-term? I don't think so but Maile isn't amazing so it's not a big deal but Tulo is definitely worse than the players he's replacing and he's blocking players that could be long-term pieces. The idea that Tulo will just walk away from $40M? I don't think so. I wouldn't.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#366294) #
"Based on what?"

1.All the statistical projection models.

2.The fact that Tulo is the only one we have that can actually, you know, play shortstop.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#366295) #
I have no idea whether Tulo will be healthy on Opening Day 2019.  If he is,  it looks to me like the best defensive infield that the team can field at that point (with personnel currently under control) would be Diaz at third, Tulo at short, ? at second base, Smoak at first.  The catching situation is very interesting, and subject to a lot of debate.  I could see the club carrying 3 catchers. 

There is a lot of merit to fielding the best defensive club that they can.  If I were the manager, I would insist that Tulo play considerable time in spring training if he wants a job on Opening Day.  Josh Donaldson's approach from this past spring (very little game action and "I'll be ready" for Opening Day) ought not to be acceptable to the manager.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#366296) #
All our Tulo and Martin questions will be answered soon. Maybe.

Regarding bad contracts: I don't think this is the last time we end up having bad contracts.
Vulg - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#366297) #
Tulo will be 34 next season, hasn't played in a year and a half, and had a 79 wRC+/0 WAR the last time he did play. The chances of him being better than Diaz next season are not very high. Regardless, even if he bounced back to become a 2 WAR player, who cares? He won't be apart of the next Jays playoff team, and a 2 WAR SS in his mid-30's with a huge contract won't get anything back in a trade either. There is literally no upside to playing him, and that's assuming he's actually a good/solid player next season.

This is very close to my take on the situation. Given next season will be about youth and building, what exactly is the point of a marginally-better (very optimistic to assume this IMO), short-term solution at SS? Even peak-Tulo would not propel the Jays to within sniffing distance of a WC next season.

The only logical reason I can think of for gifting him playing time is to rehabilitate his trade value to the extent that maybe some team takes a chance with the Jays paying the bulk of his salary, since he's unmovable at the moment.
krose - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#366298) #
At risk of heresy; what about trading Jansen for for a young, top of the rotation starter? Martin, Maile and McGuire should stick for at least one more year.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#366299) #
The issue is that Diaz is a poor shortstop and Gurriel is not a shortstop at all.

Sometime late 2019 or early 2010 Bichette will be on his way up, followed soon after by Smith. Guys who actually have a chance to be mlb SS.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#366300) #
what about trading Jansen for for a young, top of the rotation starter?

Would makes you believe that Jansen could fetch such a return?

uglyone - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#366301) #
"Would makes you believe that Jansen could fetch such a return?"

The best catching prospect in baseball should be worth a pretty penny.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#366302) #
Blue Jays basically sent cash in every trade to maximize their return. While that might justify the expenditure, that's still a lot of money not saved. The decision to release John Gibbons after the Season may or may not be the right decision. They still owe another year's salary and that's not money saved. While Rebuilding Teams are not supposed to bleed money, that's bad business practice. The above procedures are and should always be considered normal business practices. The current ideas of how to bleed more money seems counterproductive.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#366303) #
I think most of the Tulo debate rests on which of 3 basic camps we belong to.

1) Go for the playoffs in 2019 - sign big ticket FA's
2) Play the best players the most - fill holes with trades, lesser FA signings and believe if all goes well, contention is a possibility.
3) Can't win-don't try. Play guys who will be part of the 2021 squad or be able to be used in trade for 2021 (or later) assets.

For 1) or 2), it's understandable having Tulo as the starting SS, unless and until he shows he can't produce.

For 3), starting Tulo makes little if any sense.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#366304) #
Not heresy at all, krose.  I think the world of Danny Jansen, but all clubs have positional needs.  I thought the world of Fred McGriff, but when the Jays traded him to acquire Roberto Alomar, I was esctatic and told my family that the Jays were going to win a World Series finally (feeling pretty sure that Olerud was going to be as good or better than McGriff). 

It's probably a good time to share my initial tentative impressions of Reese McGuire.  As others have said, he looks like a solid defensive catcher with a Grade B- arm.   Over his minor league career, he's more than held his own against RHP.  I am not sure if he's ready yet, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was a perfectly fine platoon catcher in the Ernie Whitt style. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#366305) #
The camps don't describe my view, hypobole.  It's not about competing in 2019; it's about putting a good defence behind young pitchers for development reasons.  In 2007, when the Rays moved B.J. Upton (as he then was) from shortstop to the outfield and later acquired Jason Bartlett, I was pretty sure that they were on their way to a winning ballclub. 
uglyone - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#366306) #
And #3 also isn't accurate because if we're talking trade value, a healthy Tulo would most definitely have some if the jays eat salary (which we are all recommending them to do already).
PeterG - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#366307) #
And the FO has already told us that it will be #3.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#366308) #
A healthy Tulo would be a lot more likely if he wasn't the almost everyday starting SS.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#366309) #
That's a different question, hypobole.  If Tulo is healthy for Opening Day  and performing well, there is no good reason to try and get more than 140 games out of him (and you'd be happy with 120).  Give him a day off every week, and let Diaz play short and Martin play third. 
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#366310) #
Four times a week equals 102 games.
Jevant - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#366311) #
If you aren't a little misty-eyed over this Gibby press conference, you aren't a real Jays fan. I'm sorry. I appreciate there are some of you who don't like the guy, but if you can't appreciate and respect what this guy has meant to the Jays, I don't know how you could cheer for this team.
Jevant - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#366312) #
Who asked "even though you were saddled with an awful team this year"? What a terrible question, that whomever that asked it should be embarrassed to frame it that way.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#366313) #
How much trade value does Diaz have? Not that much. Tulo is a worse player making $20m a year. Even the decent payer Tulo was in 2015 and 2016 doesn't have much trade value even if he's not making a lot of money. Teams aren't going to give up much for an ok offensive, pretty good defensive SS who is injury prone and that 15/16 version of Tulo is certainly unlikely. Best case scenario and Tulo is the same player he was in 2015 and 2016. Jays still have to eat almost all of the contract to get a PTBNL.

Since 2015, the qualified shortstop closest in value to Tulo have been Hecheveria, Escobar, Galvis, etc.. This is the player Tulowitzki is now. . At some point you have to look past the name and look at the player. He was an elite player until 2014. Since then, he has a 97 wrc+ with badly declining defense and has missed a year and a half of time. That's four years of data all pointing very strongly in the same direction.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#366314) #
One thing to remember, no Tulo in 2015 and 2016, no playoffs.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#366315) #
'Give him a day off every week, and let Diaz play short and Martin play third.'

So who doesn't make the team then? If Martin is playing 3B and Tulo and Diaz are playing, Gurriel is in the minors. Drury is in the minors. Vlad is on the bench or in the minors. Veteran leadership can be useful but not if it blocks development.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#366316) #
"One thing to remember, no Tulo in 2015 and 2016, no playoffs."

No denying Tulo's part in the playoff runs, but what if the Jays had traded for Andrelton Simmons (who was dealt to the Angels a few months later) instead of Tulo?

It's not like trading for Tulo or trotting out Reyes every day were the only 2 options.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#366317) #
If the club wants Gurriel Jr. to be a shortstop, they should send him to the minors to learn the position (I am doubtful that he can).  Brandon Drury has played second base more in his career than third base, and has, according to the numbers been better at it.  If he's healthy for Opening Day 2019, I don't see why he couldn't compete for the second base job.

As for Guerrero Jr., the club will surely keep him down at least until the end of April and perhaps until the beginning of June.  Whenever he arrives (and assuming that it is at third base), the club could make whatever adjustments it feels is necessary. 

My view is that defence at shortstop matters a lot.  The odds are probably somewhat against Tulo being able to supply even average defence at shortstop.  But if he can, it probably means that he is well enough to hit at a typical player with his career pattern (probably somewhere in the 90-100 wRC+ range). 
Nigel - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#366318) #
Clearly, I'm in camp number 3 (or maybe a 3A) with the nuance that development has to be balanced with a focus on putting a decent defensive team on the field. What that means in practical terms can vary but it would, in my view, mean punting Morales and using his DH slot for someone like Hernandez. I think you need to see if Hernandez's bat has more upside but you have to keep him out of the field. Keeping Hernandez out of the OF also opens up more AB's for the litany of 4th OF types in AAA/AA to see if some might be more than that and might also open up some playing time for Gurriel in the OF (for example). It probably also means balancing Jansen at C with Martin. The number one priority this offseason should be to stop forcing players up the defensive spectrum for zero return.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#366319) #
On the subject of SS defence, Marcus Semien was a poor defensive SS in 2016, one of the worst in 2017 , but one of the best this year by DRS.

One theory is that with Matt Chapman's tremendous range at 3rd, it allows Semien to play more up the middle and he has to make far fewer throws from deep in the hole. Of the 79 players that have 100 innings played at 3rd this year, UZR has only the Yanks Andujar with worse range than Solarte.

Very curious what our SS DRS would show in a with you/without you Solarte at 3rd breakdown?
rpriske - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#366320) #
Speaking of infielders, Jon Berti was called up.
jerjapan - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#366321) #
Great news about Berti, I love seeing the loyal org soldiers get the call they've worked so hard for. He will have to come off the 40 man in the offseason but he is not an asset to worry about from an org perspective. I hope he enjoys his time in the bigs and the associated health care.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#366322) #
It would be good too take predictions/poll right about now on Tulo for next year. To think Diaz will be better than Tulo is laughable. By that logic you would also think that Diaz is more valuable than Donaldson. It's obvious that older players fall off a cliff like Batista. Tulo, Donaldson, these guys are not 36/37 and have elite reputations in the game for fitness and hard work and numbers when playing healthy. To throw that out the window is fine, but not when you're comparing it to guys like Gurriel or Diaz who may become stars or may be slightly above average players. That's just short sighted. Tulo hasn't done great the last two years because he hasn't been healthy and you know, he kinda had his heels sliced off and stapled back together. If he can't play he can't play. Nobody is suggesting to start him and play him if he is worse than Diaz. IF he can perform better than those guys then he's your starting shortstop day in and day out until Bichete or Smith is ready. If he can't be 2+ WAR or better and lead the team off the field then dump him. Pretty simple.

Arguments regarding his value due to his contract is off base. Arguments that he won't be around for the next contending team and peanut headed. Unless you're willing to get rid of Stroman, Sanchez, Smoak and Travis.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#366323) #
1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be the Jays' 3B when he arrives. He will remain their 3B until he conclusively proves he cannot do the job.
2) Of everyone who can/might play SS (I didn't say will), Troy Tulowitzki still has the best range and it's not even close.
3)It's very likely the Jays will leak hits on the 3B side unless they have a SS with very good range and defense.
4) Either hope and pray Tulowitzki can play SS or hope and pray the Jays will acquire a young talented one. Of course that will cost three of the Jays top 5 to start.

Odds are close to meaningless when dealing with individual performance by an individual, while it's works well with groups of performances and/or groups of people.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#366324) #
To put it in perspective, Jon Berti earns about $13.6 K for 4 days work.
pooks137 - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#366325) #

2) Of everyone who can/might play SS (I didn't say will), Troy Tulowitzki still has the best range and it's not even close.

I thought there is no possible way this could be true, but Fangraphs advanced defensive stats seem to suggest the same. By Range Runs, Fangraphs has Tulo about league average for range over his 2 1/2 years with the Jays and have Diaz, Gurriel Jr and Urena as all well below average in various sample sizes

I'm still pretty skeptical that our soon-to-be-34-year old SS with tons of injuries, chronically sore heels and who hasn't played a game in 18 months is our rangiest SS option, but his last available stats suggests it's probably the case

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#366326) #
You'll have to forgive any mistakes I make. For the past six weeks I have a partial paralyzed right side, swollen right foot, atrophied right arm. Probably a pinched nerve, as I'm still 100% mentally functioning - still as crazy as ever. It's occassionally fun because I'm trying to try and teach my left side to be my new dominant side.
budgell - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#366327) #
Hey Richard, hope you're feeling better soon. I assume you've seen your Doctor re these symptoms but, not to be alarmist, they sound stroke like.
All the best.
CeeBee - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#366328) #
Richard, hope you recover and get back to normal health.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#366329) #
you know, SRF is walking too many but nothing insane. the only thing that makes his rookie line look at all bad is a likely flukish 18.8hr/fb%.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#366330) #
Jays Win!
PeterG - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#366331) #
Dalimon, it is certainly intersting how people can view things totally differently. You say that it is laughable to think that Diaz will be better than Tulo.

I think that comment is in itself laughable and that there is no way any reconstructed Tulo can possibly be as good next season as Diaz is now. The eyes test tells me so. Tulo was not very good even before the injury....and now. What you contend is a joke.

And as for statistical proof, I think Glevin has already made that case that it is a total no contest in favour of Diaz and he used 3 years of data I believe. I don't think there is any way Tulo can hope to fight off Gurriel let alone Diaz.

No disrespect intended. I just think that you went way overboard with that statement.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#366332) #
Tulo was a below average defensive SS in 2017 (-1.1 UZR), and that was a year and a half ago prior to his recent injuries/surgeries. He was around average (slightly above) as a hitter in 2015/16 and then bad in 2017 and injured in 2018. Even if you project his bat bouncing back, is it going to be any better than what Diaz provided in 2018? Probably not. Then defensively, it's hard to say what he will look like having not played a year and a half and having to deal with injuries to his lower body. Age already diminishes defensive ability, in his case it will be age and significant injury.

Gurriel may not be a SS, and Diaz is below average there, but you have to look at the totality of the value each player provides. I'd be very surprised if Tulo is better than Diaz next year, and even if he is, what good would it do? The Jays feel Gurriel is a SS, or can develop into one. If that's the case, then a year of development for him is far more valuable to the team given where they are than praying that Tulo is above replacement next year.

Having Tulo and Martin on the field makes sense in the absence of prospects ready to take over. They aren't hurting anything if they are not blocking anyone. But if Jansen is ready (it looks like it), and the FO wants Gurriel to play SS for better or worse (his bat looks ready), then that's when you have to make moves.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#366333) #
My guess is that Tulo, if somewhat healthy in 2019, might play in half the team's games, give or take, and post a WAR somewhere between -1 and +1. In other words, he's likely to be a non-factor on the field. He might be able to add some value as a mentor to young players like Bichette or Biggio.
PeterG - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#366334) #
There will be no room for young players if Tulo is here. I would be shocked if he ever plays another regular season game in a Jays uni. It seems as though some don't yet understand that the team is in a full scale rebuild and that all indications are that next year's team will be even younger than the one we are seeing now.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#366335) #
It was a beautiful day at the RC with the sun streaming in and seasonal early fall temperatures.  The game moved on at a nice clip, with the assistance of a generous getaway-day strike zone. Urena and McKinney made nice defensive plays, and Reese McGuire homered off a lefty after fouling off a couple.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#366336) #
1) Troy Tulowitzki should get every opportunity to win the job. He will win the job or he will not, in which case he, and he alone will decide his future.

2) Jays cannot finish lower than the 9th Pick and cannot finish higher than the 12th Pick.
scottt - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#366337) #
I'm not sure what full scale rebuild means here.
The Orioles will be in a full scale rebuild, yet they'll will have more veterans than the Jays.
There's going to be a bunch of young guys competing for several positions.
Some like Guerrero and Jansen will have high expectations.
Others like Hernandez and Grichuk will just try to establish new career highs.
The big question is the rotation and that's mostly because the established Stroman/Sanchez will be coming off a bad year. If the rotation is good, they'll be chasing a wild card spot. I'm not expecting that.
However, they should have more starting options as the year unfurls.
Bichette should be the shortstop in 2020, so it doesn't matter who holds the spot in 2019.
Solarte was this year's worst player at -0.6 WAR and will not be returning.

John Northey - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#366338) #
Right now at the 2 positions being talked about we have...
Aledmys Diaz - 27 yrs, 108 OPS+,
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 24 yrs, 107 OPS+
Richard Urena - 22 yrs, 100 OPS+,
Bo Bichette - 20 yrs, 286/343/453 in AA
Kevin Smith - 21 yrs, A/A+, 302/358/528
And others.

So with 3 who did well offensively in the majors this year, 2 more closing in (especially Bichette) Tulowitzki is becoming less and less needed.

Luke Maile - 27 yrs, 97 OPS+
Danny Jansen - 23 yrs, 124 OPS+
Reese McGuire - 23 yrs, 105 OPS+
Russell Martin - 35 yrs, 87 OPS+
Max Pentecost - 25 yrs, 253/283/401 in AA
And others.

So, who is least likely to improve in 2019?  I'd bet on the 35 year old myself having the most trouble improving.  Maile next.  While I can see some use for Martin (covers 3B/SS/1B/DH/probably could handle LF and 2B if needed) there is just a lot of youth ready for the majors there, or almost ready. 

2019 is a rebuild year, and 2020 probably will be too.  To make it as short a rebuild as possible guys like Martin and Tulo need to be cleared out at this point.

Second base, where many of the SS could go is also crowded with ...
Devon Travis - 27 yrs, 80 OPS+
Brandon Drury - 25 yrs, 33 OPS+
Cavan Biggio -  23 yrs, 252/388/499 in AA
plus all the SS guys other than Tulo who refuses to move.

What about 1B/DH?  Crowded too...
Justin Smoak - 31 yrs, 124 OPS+, under $10 mil  next year
Kendrys Morales - 35 yrs, 112 OPS+, $11 mil next year
Rowdy Tellez - 23 yrs, 172 OPS+ (not keeping anywhere near that)
plus any OF/IF who hasn't got a job.

Yeah, next year will be a near total rebuild on offense with only a few pitchers surviving the purge I expect this winter.  I think Morales will be the one hitter who survives, while Stroman & Sanchez might survive on the pitching side.  I expect Smoak to find a new home, and Giles too.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#366339) #
BTW, given all of the recent discussions about C’s recently, I see Erik Kratz is in a job share as the Brewers’ everyday C. He now has over 850 major league AB’s and has generated almost 2 career WAR. All of which is far in excess of Guillermo Quiroz’s career. C’s are in a youneverknow universe like pitchers.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#366341) #
I've never been more optimistic about a players projections than Tulo next year. If you know where to look you will see that he's been playing baseball on and off since his surgery in April and does his batting and fielding drills throughout the summer. He's not sitting on a couch and somehow expecting to whip into shape in 3 weeks in Florida before the start of the season. You can throw as many stats as you like at me but the fact of the matter - to me - is that Tulo has not played one healthy game in a Jay's uniform and he's taking extra time off that he's never done before which I'm optimistic will allow him to heal and come back as at least the 2016 player we saw which was good enough then to lead our team in a post season run...but now somehow we use injury plagued stats, shortened seasons and convince ourselves that he has diminished from an elite star in 2015 to very good in 2016 to unplayable in 2019... he says he will be back healthy for the first time in a long time...fully healthy. I'll take that and hedge my bets that he will outperform Diaz.

I have no problem agreeing that both sides may seem laughable to the other, nothing wrong with that just a difference of opinion. I do, however, think 99% of baseball personnel is on my side and will pick Tulo over Diaz/Gurriel...rebuilding or contending it doesn't matter, imho.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#366342) #
Looks like were going to finish with the worst LF defence in MLB once again, per FG. 2nd year in a row and the 3rd time in the past 4 seasons. Since 2010, our LF group has finished better than 23rd only twice.

Oddly enough, the 2 seasons we weren't terrible were the 2 seasons Melky Cabrera was the primary guy there. 2014 top 10, 2013 middle of the pack. Pillar and other non-negative fielders did contribute a chunk of innings those 2 seasons.

Magpie - Thursday, September 27 2018 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#366344) #
This NL finish is getting pretty wild. The Dodgers are about to slip half a game behind Colorado for West division lead, while hanging on to a one game lead on the Cardinals for the second Wild Card. The Dodgers are probably the best team in the league (they've scored the most runs and allowed the fewest) and here they are fighting for their lives.
Glevin - Thursday, September 27 2018 @ 05:01 AM EDT (#366346) #
".but now somehow we use injury plagued stats, shortened seasons and convince ourselves that he has diminished from an elite star in 2015 to very good in 2016 to unplayable in 2019"

Tulo had a WRC+ of 101 in 2015. He was an elite player in 2014. You want us to ignore four years of data? And yes, diminishing from a star to becoming good to becoming unplayable is by far the most common pattern for players in their 30s. (The only variation is going straight from star to unplayable) What is not a common pattern is declining, missing a year, getting hurt all the time, and then at 34, becoming a good player again. I don't know if it's ever happened. I am baffled why anyone would want him at SS. Literally, it's the case of playing an older worse player and blocking a younger player who is already better. Why would any rebuilding team want to do that? Why would a contending team do that? There is also zero upside. Tulo will never have any trade value even if he bounces back. It's the equivalent of the Mets playing Jose Reyes over Ahmed Rosario because he's a veteran who was good in 2014. (Which the Mets being the Mets did do this year some). I think it's similar to the Pompey and Travis situations where people are holding on to a hope for a version of a player that doesn't exist anymore. Unlike those two though, who could still straighten things out (unlikely but possible) Tulo is already definitely on the downside of his career. You know many everyday shortstops there were in baseball over 32 this year? None. There were 3 players who played over 100 PAs and played some SS who were over 32 YO. They combined for a -1.7 WAR. Tulo is 34. You know how many 34 YOs played least 50 games at SS? None. At least 25? None. At least 15? Jose Reyes. That's it. How many players in history declined at 32, missed an entire year at 33 and then went back to being a good player at 34? Probably none. There is literally no data trend, no historical cases, no numbers that show Tulo as likely to be anything better than a below average player. I really hope the Jays move on and I actually think they will.

@Magpie. I am really hoping for an NL extra game. I love those tie breakers.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 27 2018 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#366357) #
...There is literally no data trend, no historical cases, no numbers that show Tulo as likely to be...

Correct, There is none. Yet your conclusion says that despite this you can make a definitive conclusion. Amazing.
hypobole - Thursday, September 27 2018 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#366362) #
The word "likely" is rarely used in a definitive conclusion.
hypobole - Thursday, September 27 2018 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#366366) #
Yangervis - a historical look.

On FG, only 10 position players this season have managed to cost their team a full win. But Solarte, -1.2 fWAR, along with Chris Davis -3.1 and Victor Martinez -1.7, are the only 3 that have had the combination of both stink and opportunity to accumulate 500 PA's.

So how bad has his season been compared to past Jays duds? Going back 20 seasons, it's not THE worst, but definitely one of the worst.

Since AA took over from JPR, this is only the 2nd time we've had a -1.0 fWAR or worse hitter. The other guy, and tied for the worst season in the past 20 years was Maicer Izturis, -1.6 in 2013.

The other -1.6 was Homer Bush back in 2000, with teammate Marty Cordova at -1.5, the 3rd worst in the past 20.

Kevin Millar in 2009 tied Solarte at -1.2.

The other 4 -1.0 fWAR seasons happened in a 5 year span, 2003, '04, '06 and '07. Going backward from '07, Jason Phillips, -1.0, Russ Adams,-1.0, Dave Berg, -1.4, and Kevin Cash (yup, that Kevin Cash),who managed his -1.0 in an impressive 117 PA's.

Oddly, 2005, in the middle of that stretch of awfulness, was best worst batter season - no one finished below -0.2 WAR.

scottt - Thursday, September 27 2018 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#366383) #
Solarte was one of the best Blue Jays early on, hitting 7 homers before May.
He was an average hitter the next two months and then had a terrible July.
16 HR in the first half. 1 in the second. Not that he played much.

The Jays would have been out of it even if he had hit 40 homers, so it's alright.

PeterG - Thursday, September 27 2018 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#366385) #
Some notes from instructs:
mendocino - Thursday, September 27 2018 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#366386) #
John Northey - Friday, September 28 2018 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#366387) #
Trying to think of players who missed a year in their 30's and came back good or bad.  Not counting pitchers as we are concerned with Tulo here.

Only examples that came to mind were Dave Winfield and A-Rod.

Winfield: missed age 37 season (injury), for age 38 had a 122 OPS+ between 2 teams (sucked in NY, then came alive in Anaheim), followed by a 120, then his 138 here, then 105, 91, and a 49 to finish
A-Rod: missed age 38 season and most of age 37 (we all know why), had a 129 OPS+ at 39 then a 58 and was forced to retire.

Tony Fernandez spent time in Japan, as did Bob Horner, Cecil Fielder, and others but I don't see that the same as missing a full year like Tulo has.
Mike Green - Friday, September 28 2018 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#366391) #
Missing most of two years with a foot injury puts me in mind of this situation.   Any parallels are to the type of injury alone- oh, to be innocent again!
ISLAND BOY - Friday, September 28 2018 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#366399) #
Players missing extended time and coming back made me think of those who missed a few seasons while serving in World War 2. Joe Dimaggio missed 3 seasons when he was aged 28-30, came back and put up comparable numbers to before. Ted Williams actually served twice, neither of which he was happy about.

At age 33 he was called up to serve in the Korean War because he was in the navy reserves. He only played 6 games before leaving at the start of the 1952 season, then played 37 at the end of the next season when he returned. In those 37 games he hit 13 home runs and put up an OPS of over 1.400. For the rest of his career he hit over .300 and had an OPS over 1.000 except his second last year at age 40 when he hit .254. His last season at age 41 though he bounced back with a .316 average in 113 games and an OPS of 1.096.

Two more notes about Williams were 1) In 7706 plate appearances he walked an astounding 2021 times with only 709 strikeouts and 2) He was drafted by the army at age 23 and tried to get out of it by getting a lawyer to prove he was the sole support of his mother. He actually succeeded with this but was met with harsh public disapproval, so much so that he enlisted in the navy the next year. Also, because he fought against being drafted, he lost the sponsorship of Quaker Oats. Angered by this, Williams said," I never ate another damn one of them !"
hypobole - Thursday, October 04 2018 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#366699) #
I can't cheer for any MLB team other than the Jays. I can anti-cheer though. Which team do I want more to lose. This year I want Houston to lose the most.

Whenever the Yankees and Red Sox play, I want them both to lose, even though that is not possible by the laws of physics. Or maybe it's bylaws of mathematics. As you can tell, I'm not a lawyer. But they have been the easiest teams to anti-cheer for for a long time.

All I know is some team other than the Jays will win enough games and become the WS champions and I will not be happy.
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