Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Brutal weekend on the farm. Dunedin on up were swept. The only two wins coming from Lansing affiliate.

Too early to start writing off seasons and there's certainly something to be said about facing adversity of a prolonged slump and working through it, but some really rough years so far for some guys who should be pushing on or have shown some year-to-year improvement on key weaknesses. I'd be interested to see if our farm follows the 1/3 rule this year. By my rough count there's a whole lot more regression out there than usual. I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing about how there's been changes to the farm and approaches to development, etc. coming from the Jays in the next little while to try to explain away some pretty glaring developmental failures. Guys with command issues seemingly with worse command, or guys with contact issues with growing holes in their bat are not a good look on your development program.

But hey, it was just one weekend.

Buffalo Bisons

Not a great weekend in Buffalo. Anthony Alford showed glimpses with a two-hit night Saturday, including a homer. He’s struggling to reach the Mendoza line 81 at-bats in. Sean Reid-Foley continues to struggle with his command. He walked five in his start Saturday. Reid-Foley is a walk-an-inning pitcher at the moment.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Rough weekend as well in New Hampshire. Hector Perez had a nice start Saturday, walking just two in six innings of one run baseball. Kevin Smith, however, looks completely overmatched by AA pitching. He too is struggling to get near the Mendoza line 102 at-bats into the season.

Dunedin Blue Jays

Two more losses in Dunedin. Dunedin was spared Sunday by rain.

Lansing Lugnuts

Lansing was the only affiliate of repute this weekend as they took two of three. Problem is there aren’t a great deal of prospects in Lansing. Juan De Paula pitched five innings of three run (two earned) baseball Friday in relief.

Friday’s Box Scores

Saturday’s Box Scores

Sunday’s Box Scores

Posted by sam on Monday, May 06 2019 @ 01:46 AM EDT.

MLU Weekend Update | 21 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Glevin - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 03:45 AM EDT (#373728) #

I think you are coupling minor league team record with prospect performance and they aren't really connected. The Jays could fill the NH team with 25 YOs and do really well as a team and have no actual prospects. The Jays best prospects in the minors are something like Groshans, Smith, Pearson, Pardinho, Bichette, SRF, Kloffenstein, Zeuch, and Biggio. Of those, Zeuch, Kloffenstein, and Pardinho haven't pitched. Groshans, Pearson, and Biggio all look great. Only Smith and SRF have struggled in a concerning way. You look down the prospect list and a lot of guys are doing fine (Kirk, Noda, Murphy, Adams, Taylor, etc...)

uglyone - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#373731) #

That's disingenuous - the FO used all their trade capital to stockpile a whole whack of older "prospects" at the higher levels specifically because they were described as all important current MLB depth. They are currently slow walking the majority of prospects - AAA is full of 25-27yr olds and AS is full of 23-25yr olds that they have traded for within the last year.

These are exactly the kind of milb teams you expect to win games. The fact that they aren't is a pretty big indictment imo.

hypobole - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#373732) #

"AAA is full of 25-27yr olds"

Uo, now it's you being disingenuous. The Bison's hitters average at bbref is 25.6 and pitchers 26.3.

Except the youngest AAA team's hitters average is 25.3. League average is 27 and half the league is at least 27.4 yrs old. 11 of the 14 teams hitters are older than the Bisons.

And the pitchers 26.3 average is exactly league average.

Glevin - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#373733) #

Not only that but pretending that the Jays had the choice between trading for older prospects and trading for high upside prospects is a lie. Only in the case of Happ did the Jays actually have a valuable piece where they could likely have gotten something different. Trading guys like Loup, Axford, Martin, etc... Was not going to get anything other than C prospects. It wasn't the front office making a choice to get older prospects, it was the front office trying to get any prospects they could get.

Mike Green - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#373734) #

Buffalo is 11-17. The club has been bad, with a few bright spots- Jonathan Davis, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Cavan Biggio. Waguespack has been decent, considering the batting-friendly run environment.

New Hampshire is 13-16. In a pitching-friendly environment, no one has done really well (except for Kirby Snead) and Kevin Smith has been a disappointment.

Dunedin is 17-11. They've had the best hitting in the league- with Cullen Large and Riley Adams leading the way. Nate Pearson, of course, was spectacular.

Lansing is 14-15. Groshans, Kirk and Winckowski have been great. Podkul, Pruitt, Neal and Lopez have been decent to good.

The overall record is a little below .500. The acquired pitching talent has generally not panned out so far- there has been an emphasis on live arms with control issues, and that hasn't worked out so well (to date). The talent within the system, which definitely tilts toward position player, is developing about as expected, with typical rates of success and failure.

uglyone - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#373735) #

hmm.

the Bisons have had exactly 4 players that aren't old for the level - 3B Vladdy 20 (8gms), SS Bo 21 (14gms), IF Urena 23 (12gms), SP SRF 23 (6gs). With only vladdy and Bo being actually young for the level.

New Hampshire has 5 - SP Diaz 22 (5gs), RP Tice 22 (11gms), SS Smith 22 (26gms), 2B Capra 22 (22gms) - with none of them actually young for the level.

The average age seems to be brought down by the fact that there aren't any old 30+ yr olds on either squad.

uglyone - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#373736) #

sorry, that total for NH is also 4, not 5.

Mike Green - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#373737) #

It's weird with Urena. He's played better in Toronto than in Buffalo or New Hampshire over the last 4 years. This year, he looked quite good in Toronto with little of the focus issues that I saw earlier. The club has a glut in the middle infield, and there is some evidence that it is getting in the way of development.

They still seem focused on Gurriel Jr. returning to the infield. Hopefully that will pass.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#373738) #

Ugly, I would argue that your age curves are skewed too heavily on international and high school players and disadvantages college hitters. For college hitters/pitchers if they start their first full season in A+ and progress one level a year I think they are still at an appropriate level.

Going by this metric Riley Adams, Kevin Smith, Cavan Biggio, Chad Spanberger are all the right level for example while Espinal, Warmoth, Noda and Large are all a level below where they should be.

uglyone - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#373739) #

that's fine and I won't argue too much, but i'll still say imo they lean old for their levels.

bpoz - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#373740) #

There are a lot of positive comments about winning awards and opinions on da box. Like being ranked top 10 or 5 farm system and we won the off season. I celebrate that with da box because it brings a lot of happiness.

But for me I prefer playoff appearances and championships. I have to ask rather than state my opinion. I cannot figure out how to ask, so I must state my opinion. Vancouver won many championships. Dunedin in 2017 and NH in 2018. I was hoping to share a lot more celebrating these championships on da box. I followed the NH championship very closely last year. Zeuch was incredible.

I may be wrong but conservatively I feel that we will win 3 WS championships at most in the next 20 years. With this opinion of mine, I need to treasure all the championships we collect. Also just making the playoffs 1st or 2nd half in the minors. And celebrate.

We do have championship caliber analysis on da box. I feel very good about that but don't understand much of it. The humor is priceless too. #2's headings are very interesting.

hypobole - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#373741) #

I know both this and the previous FO have stated that winning minor league titles/championships is important for development. I'm not going to say it isn't, but I strongly believe it's a lot less important than people make it out to be.

The developmental success of major league prospects is what's truly important. Team success, which will almost invariably be largely based on org guys who'll never be contributors at the major league level, is nice but mostly meaningless.

Nigel - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#373743) #

As I've said several times, and Mike has done a good job summarizing, the pitching is where the problems are and the hitting probably has more good than bad on the whole. The full season pitching is a bit of a mess right now. It was thin gruel to begin with, and most of the prospects with upside have struggled - but its early.

I don't think that it's unfair to look at the last two years of deals and say that the FO has leaned more heavily towards near ready prospects and other organizations' 40 man roster surplus rather than the rough equivalent (A-ball lottery tickets). There is good and bad in both strategies.

hypobole - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#373744) #

One of those 40 man surplus deals was the Diaz-Thornton swap. It was hated by most here at the time. He should be in Buffalo but with the injuries to Shoe, Borucki and Richard he's been an admittedly uneven godsend for the Jays.

The deal is looking pretty good so far from the Jays side, Thornton has 0.6 WAR, both sites, while Diaz has been replacement level for the Astros.

bpoz - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#373745) #

No doubt we have had a lot of disappointments with prospects this year. Hopefully it will change.

I thought we were very fortunate to have 2 elite prospects in Vlad and Bo who came up together, sort of. After Avg of .384 in Lansing and .323 in Dunedin in 2017. Bo dropped to .286 in NH last year. This year he started in a slump 2 for 20 and then hit in every game after that. So he seemed to be heading towards another incredible year.

That is a very high bar for other prospects to match. But Groshans and Kirk are in/close to that neighborhood.

Last year R Adams jumped to Dunedin. He struggled badly in the 1st half and did much better in the 2nd half. So he dropped in prospect list. Maybe that will be how others will do.

Biggio was another one. Not that good in Dunedin but V good in NH and Buffalo.

hypobole - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#373746) #

Jason Woodell seems to have been at Jays instructs on May 4. Scroll down his twitter feed if you want to see a bunch of short videos and some notes - Orelvis, Kloff, Moreno, Leonardo, Gaston, Conine, Concepcion.

https://twitter.com/jasonatthegame?lang=en

Mike Green - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#373747) #

Thanks, hypobole. Gabriel Moreno and Kloffenstein are the highlights for me. Moreno's swing is great.

scottt - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#373758) #

Baseball Reference has the weighted league average age at 27 for the International League and 24 for the Eastern League.

A prospect can't really be old for AAA. They usually ran out of options before that.

On the other hand, the weighted league average for the American League is less than 29.

hypobole - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#373759) #

Mentioned this before (I think) but when the Bisons played Syracuse, I checked Bbref and the average age of the Syracuse batters was older than the average age of every MLB teams batters. They got vets.

Gerry - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#373762) #

Alejandro Kirk is playing for Dunedin tonight and he just doubled in three runs with two outs in the ninth to turn a 3-2 deficit into a 5-3 lead.

bpoz - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#373763) #

Bases loaded in Dunedin. A Kirk clears them all with a double.

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